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[Foreign language] "Welcome to this presentation with Grangex and its latest PEA, this one for Sydvaranger, Norway. For those watching live, you can, as always with our broadcast, interact directly with the management. You will do so via the chat. We will address the questions after the presentation. However, we should emphasize that Grangex, who recently moved to Nasdaq First North Premier Growth, will release its annual report on February 13. Why today's broadcast and subsequent Q&A? Preliminary, we'll focus on the result from the preliminary economic assessment and the Sydvaranger mine in northern Norway." So with that under our belt, I would say, Christer, the floor is yours.
Thank you very much. Great to be here. Great to be able to talk about Sydvaranger and the recent developments of our study work, the preliminary economic assessment. We, as you know, are, as Carlo mentioned, we are a listed company on Nasdaq. Whatever I mention here is in the public domain. We are a public project developer of mines, mines for the green transition. We take part in the steel transition of the steel industries' change into fossil-free steel production. Our project is ultra-high-grade iron ores. We have two projects. We have the Dannemora project. We have talked about that earlier. You who are watching us, following us, knows about that. Now we have the Sydvaranger mine up in Norway. We acquired that in May last year. This is all about that study, the PEA, which we presented this morning.
We have two assets. Sydvaranger now emerged as the absolutely largest asset when we regarded net present value. It's $1.2 billion worth of the project. The Dannemora, according to the recent feasibility study, is around $270 million. Totally, almost $1.5 billion. That should be compared then to our current market price, around $13 billion. There is, as we see it, a discrepancy right now. That will probably, given the information flow and so on, hopefully will be adjusted. That is, compared to other peer group projects, it should be around 5%, 10% at least. Having said that, we go forward and focusing then on the Sydvaranger. As Carlo mentioned, we are on the Nasdaq First North since December. We are pursuing now Sydvaranger within the study work and also interacting with the public Norway in order to bring Sydvaranger into operation as soon as ever possible.
There are great possibilities for that. We have also a partnership with Anglo American, which is essential for the fast developments we are now onto, and that's a valuable partnership. I will talk a little bit more about that later, and then we have all permits necessary for bringing Sydvaranger into operation as soon as ever possible, so it has been significant developments in the Sydvaranger project the last eight months during the period we have owned Sydvaranger. And today then we published the PEA study and the highlights there. Everything is on the web. We have published everything, so the executive summary is available on the web and on our homepage, but $1.2 billion net worth of the project is extraordinary. It's beyond expectations, actually. Everything which has been done here has been based on an earlier feasibility study, which was published in 2019.
We have a good foundation from where we then developed our study now. We will then bring this into a full feasibility study, which will be ready latest in July this year. Compared to the old study, which is targeting also the same quantities, but not the same quality. In our study and in our development work, we have upgraded the product to a full concentrate for direct reduction applications. It is around 70% or above 70% iron grade. Probably one of the best qualities available will be available on the market once we come into production. We have a healthy internal rate of return of 47%. It is mind-boggling numbers. These are real. These are signed off by our independent consultant firm, SLR.
We have been working together, also together with Anglo, even though they are not signing off on this, of course, but they have been on the steering committee. It's great news, great developments, good news for Kirkenes and Northern Norway, I would say. We have a very good or low production cost, around 55% in the steady state phase of the operations of Sydvaranger. That is very competitive, considering the high grade we will produce. It's only magnetite we are talking about, magnetic iron ore, meaning that it's easy to upgrade. That's why we can reach this high grade, 70%. We are planning to start up the activities next year, within 12 months. That is to get the operation into the first phase. We expect to have the first ship leaving early 2027.
This is also good news because up in Sydvaranger, or in this area, there is a requirement for economic activities. And this is what Sydvaranger can bring. It's a big economic motor for the region. And that means also that we have a lot of interest and support from public Norway, if I put it in that context. We are truly, in Sydvaranger, a truly world-class project now. We are proving that through this study. It is confirming that. We have 500 million tons of mineral resources available. We will mine part of that. So there is a lot of extension possibilities. We are talking about roughly 19 years of mine life, out of which 15 years is steady state production with $55, $54 production cost. Very competitive. 3 million tons a year, average. It will be reaching 3.6, roughly, certain years.
Then it depends on where we are in the mine site, actually. We have several, we have eight different pits where we will operate. We will have, it's only open pit here right now, which means also we can have a combined mine fleet, which is a big advantage instead of having some underground and so on. There have been discussions about that in Sydvaranger earlier. We have the price, which we base everything is an independent forecast we got from Fastmarkets. It was Metal Bulletin once. Now it's Fastmarkets. So they give a life of mine, 19-year forecast from 2026 and onwards, which is a variation, of course, over the years. A little bit less in the beginning of the period and then due to the fact, which I want to talk about, the increased supply demand.
We will invest over a four-year period, roughly $350 million of CapEx. And that will be done in sequences. And all this low CapEx, which is low in this context, is because there is a lot of investments done already. And we enjoy the care and maintenance of the existing installations, which we have up in Sydvaranger, from the primary crusher all the way down into the harbor system or the loading system at the harbor. All these installations are current and they are maintained. And we have a crew up in Sydvaranger who knows everything about it. So that's a big, big advantage for Sydvaranger compared to many other iron ore projects. Yeah, well, this is a brownfield project. It has a very, very proud history all the way from 1906, actually, all the way up to now.
Now we are bringing Sydvaranger into the new era of the green steel transition where Sydvaranger will take a very important role, especially here in Europe. We expect then, as I mentioned, to have the feasibility study published in July this year. During the next quarter or so, we will have the project financing established. We expect to have the production starting early 2027. Anglo American is our partner, is our strategic partner. They are with us in Dannemora and they are with us in Sydvaranger. They are supporting us not only with the total $27.5 million without any dilution for the current shareholders. We enjoy the support, the technical and mining technology knowledge, which we have access to through the cooperation with Anglo American, including, of course, the marketing, which will now start up that work, actually.
As we see now, we will see, we see the end of the tunnel of a development in 2027 early. We will have shipments. So next year, it's not only talking about marketing and talking to end customers. It's also the building up the organization, the operational organization. That's going to be a very important project also. Roughly 450 employees will be employed in early 2027. So why do we do all this? Well, I talked about the transition of the steel industry. That is imperative to meet the Paris goals, targets, and roughly 7%, maybe more, of the global emissions of CO2 is coming from the steel industry. So whatever we can do to reduce that and bring in new technologies like the direct reduction technologies has to be done.
Any project that can be brought into production should be brought into production as soon as possible to meet this growing demand for ultra high grade. Because it is not, iron ore is not one product. It is several products. It depends on the quality of the content of iron and also impurities like silica and aluminum. And this graph is showing this. This is the world market. Roughly 2.5 billion tons of iron ore per year is moved. In the green section at the down right, that is where you have to be to be a part of this green transition and providing to steel industry. And Dannemora, we brought in there already 2021. We could see that when we had done our product development and process development. The same thing we will do with Sydvaranger now. And now we know we can do it.
2027, we have Sydvaranger coming into production and within this exclusive segment in the iron ore market. This is the premier league of the iron ore market, actually. We have two projects in this league. In Dannemora, we expect to be coming on stream somewhere beyond 2027. There is a large deficit here. 7% of the entire production is coming from this segment. This is where the growth will be. We are talking about a very high growth every year going forward because of the green transition. All the projects which are now in development, like Stegra, H2 Green Steel earlier. We have a HYBRIT. It's supplied by LKAB, but though. We have another, I would say, more than 30 projects in Europe only. There are things going on worldwide also. All requires ultra high grade iron ore.
Sydvaranger is therefore one heck of a project, actually, in this regard. And we expect, if you look at the right side, DR grade pellet requirements. This is coming from external sources, but it's an uplift of the requirements up to 2050. So the demand is growing. And this is where you have to be in this segment, the premier league to actually be a part of it, but also be profitable. So with that, I think I stop. And maybe we could talk a little bit.
Yes. So let's just dive into Q&A. I've received a couple of questions here. And we will try to manage the questions so that there is some sort of red thread here. Let's see here. So we have one question regarding CapEx. So how big of the CapEx for the alternative B do you expect in this? And also, may I just add, will there be any financing through, let's say, a profit here?
Well, I mean, if you start with, during the study, we had two options. The fast track, low CapEx alternative or option. And then we have the alternative B, B for base case now. This is what we are going to move forward with. And that is almost $350 million. That will be invested in segments. Roughly, I think we are not disclosing how much yet. It will come in the feasibility study, but we will start small and then do gradually investments during the first four development years. And thereafter, we have then 15 years of steady state mine production. The last investment, which will come, let's say, year three and four, will uplift the capacity. So we start with the current capacity we have installed in the existing plant.
And we will install a new crusher station and then also release a lot of extra ore, which is now blocked under the current crusher location. So we will get another 35 million tons of ore. So that is the benefit of the expansion, but we get also a longer same life of mine, but much higher volume. So we will produce roughly 54 million tons of concentrate compared to option A, which is around 32 or something. So it's a big value creation we do by investing a little bit more.
Okay. And when it comes to the project financing, do you expect to, let's say, formalize that Q3, Q4, 2025?
Yeah. I mean, we actually have commenced this. We are talking to, let's say, public agencies in Norway already. There are financing opportunities. We are talking, warming up the larger investors and, let's say, finance and mining investment houses in, let's say, internationally. We contact all the PE houses and so on. So we know there is a big interest, actually. So we are getting to start that now after the announcement now with the PEA.
And I can see there are a couple of questions coming in, which is more detail on Sydvaranger and so on. And we'll get to those at the end here. But I'd just like to start to ask you the preliminary economic assessments that came more or less on time, as you have estimated. Was the result as expected? Are you happy?
Well, it has been a couple of, well, a week, actually. We were supposed to announce it last week. I promised that. I think when I was here last time, it took another week. But I think that was, I mean, that week was very important, actually, to bring everything together also. We knew, I must say, it's astonishing, astonishing numbers. We hear that from our partners also. It is fabulous, actually. And I should say that within these calculations we have done now, we have more than 25% contingencies. So because the level of the PEA have to require 25% or more. So that is annoying, but that's what we have to live with. But it's also the opportunity to really optimize further into the feasibility study.
Okay. And obviously, the feasibility study is expected to come on stream on what?
In July.
Yeah. And if we then go back to the reason for this broadcast, which is the PEA, will that make any adjustments to your overall production estimates for the company as a whole? And if so, why?
Yeah, well, I mean, we have been talking about Grangex 5.0. We probably have to reduce that a little bit. And it's because 1.1 million tons from Dannemora and then roughly 4 million or 5 million tons, 4 million tons. So now we are talking probably about four, I don't know, but it's 4 million plus. But it's higher grade, better price, less tonnage to ship. And that's also a benefit price-wise and cost-wise.
Yeah. And just for my humble knowledge or lack of, the independent assessor here, SLR, in the study, have they made an assessment of the iron ore price over the lifespan? Because they have given you a lifespan and also an amount of how much there can be. So when I look at these estimates that they are having of some SEK 30 million, is the iron ore price incorporated into that on average over the life length?
Yes. I mean, exactly. The net present value contains, it's derived from the financial model. So we have a net present value. And that's the typical standardized way of presenting mine projects with a discount factor of 8%. It's based on an estimated forecasted price. In our case, it's more than only one average price. It's actually a yearly price over the life of mine, 19 years. So it's more accurate, I would say, accurate in the sense. It's still a forecast. But it's done by one of the most prestigious houses who is also publishing every day the indices, the prices for iron ore, which is then used by the industry for calculating contract prices. So that's why we selected them, because they have a very good knowledge and also forecasting history.
Okay. If I look at this report also, and I have to express my lack of knowledge here, but operating cost is estimated at SEK 597 per dry metric ton, DMT. So what is the difference between a normal ton and a dry metric ton?
Yeah. When we ship, we will ship a wet ton, meaning it will contain roughly 6%-7% water or humidity. You are only getting paid for the dry tons. Every wet ton is actually 93% dry tons. That's why. The standard is to calculate dry tons in order to offset the water content or the humidity in the product.
The end product, more or less. SEK 597, roughly. I think you on the slides were quite happy with the cost side there. You're a low-cost operator in that respect. Is that true?
I would say, I mean, given the circumstances and if we compare with our peers, we are definitely a low-cost, very competitive, probably.
And what is the ingredients there? How can you be a low-cost?
It's probably because we have virtually no logistic cost. I mean, the mine is 8 km away from the plant and the port. That's a dream for any iron ore producer. And we own our own railroad also. So there is no congestion on our railroad.
Okay. And it's an open pit?
It's open pit, which means it's easier than and less costly than an underground. So that's also an advantage. And of course, then we have an ice-free harbor also. We can ship right now with Panamaxes. There is an expansion opportunity to do Capesize vessels also, but then we need to invest a little bit more in the harbor.
But basically, the harbor as it is now is, well, fully functional for what you have. So I have a question here from Kirkenes. And they're more focusing, let's say, on the rest product when it comes to the crusher or [Foreign language]. So how are you going to deal with that? Obviously, if you live in Kirkenes, you will probably have at least, if not an opinion, so we would like to know.
I mean, we have, and that is one of the parts. I mean, we have very high ESG standards in what we do. We are a sustainable mine developer. And the current technique to deposit the tailings, the rest product from the upgrading of the ore to a product is, according to the permits, allowed to be deposited in the fjord outside the plant. And this is the current and predominantly done the way it is done in Norway today, several other mines also. And this is what Sydvaranger have been doing since, I think, the 1960s or something like that. But we are investigating alternatives. And this is a part of the permit to investigate and to see what is possible.
And we are using the best practice, of course, when it comes to this. The best solution is, of course, to find use for this, because it's pure silica. It's actually beach sand, basically. It's inert beach sand. And we could actually sell this to other applications like cement industry and so on. It's yet a little bit too early to assess this because it has to be economically sustainable also. But we are working hard. And that's a part of the feasibility study, the end study now in July to be more specific on this. We are not so specific in this PEA, actually. But work is ongoing.
Okay. And while we're on these topics, could you describe a little bit here, particularly for us now in Sweden, the difference between your relationship with, let's say, the Norwegian state, the municipal, and the environmental agencies there? Because I think we touched upon that a little bit when it comes to Kirkenes.
Yeah. I mean, I must say, being a mine developer, being in Kirkenes and in Sydvaranger project, it's a very, very good cooperation. There is a good support. There is, of course, interest, which has to be aligned. But there is no whatsoever, let's say, counterparties which is objecting, which is very important for a project like this to bring it into operation soon. So the relationship with the local government, the local community, and so on is excellent. Also, I would say, I would stress that we also enjoy and are very, very glad for the good cooperation with the Sámi community also. So that is important for us. And all the stakeholders around the mine are our partners in that sense. When we come further to the region, I mean, the region, the Finnmark region is, of course, just waiting for the mine to come on stream.
It's very important for the local and regional economy. I mean, we will produce and export and generate export revenues over a long time, which is also yielding and creating a lot of side effects in the region, and especially in Kirkenes, which is needed, actually, because of the situation close to the border and the effects of the disappearance of the border trade, which was very important for Kirkenes before the sanctions. And when it comes to the government in Oslo, the national government, the support from the government and the national agencies are very, very positive. And there are more finance opportunities and possibilities in Norway for mine projects, green mine projects and green projects than in Sweden. And that's extraordinary, I must say. But Norway is probably the richest country on the planet. Yes.
So basically, the Norwegian state has a program where they financially can help miners such as yourself in this case?
Yeah, there are programs, and we are part of those programs. Yeah.
Energy, which has been a subject for Dannemora and for Sweden in particular, if we look at the difference there, do you see any problem with the energy supply?
It is. I mean, in Dannemora, it emerged as a problem. It was not regarded as a problem until all of a sudden we were enlightened. I mean, it's very, very irritating, I must say, but in Sydvaranger, we have all that agreed and confirmed by the network and the local utility as well as the state utility. So we don't have that risk in Sydvaranger, and that is also one of the reasons why Sydvaranger will surpass Dannemora in production start.
And when you look at the future going forward here, is there a need for cash injection, i.e. going to the market with a share issue and stuff like that? How much can you elaborate on that?
Well, we are in a silent period, as you mentioned. But I can say that, I mean, and we said that also, we will need, of course, financing of Sydvaranger. And that process is now starting with the publication of the PEA, actually.
So basically, that's a seal of approval?
Yeah. And then the question is, will it be in the Topco Grangex or will it be in the subsidiary Grangex Sydvaranger? It's yet to be seen.
Okay. Yeah. And obviously, you have an illustrious partner here, strategic partner, Anglo, whom I'm sure you are in discussion with on more than one topic.
Well, yes. I mean, it is published also that Anglo, who is, I mean, their predominant interest in this is, of course, to take off the entire product production we have, which is roughly 54 million tons something over life of mine. It's a value of more than NOK 70 billion , which is, or SEK , which is an extraordinarily large amount, giving the numbers in the PEA. They will, in order to have this access and the offtake, they will participate with $50 million in the project financing of Sydvaranger. So part of the, [say, 50] will, if we are successful with the feasibility study and Anglo is still interested, which they will be, I guess, having 50 million there already. And potentially financing.
Yeah. And just to clarify here, basically, they have an offtake agreement with you, which means whatever you will bring up, they will buy.
Yeah.
Let's say at a market price?
I mean, yeah. I mean, and this is important, and we have a signed offtake agreement, which is subject to this participation in the project financing. But given that that happens, we have all that in place already. And that is also a very good formulation of the price calculation, which is a benefit for us, but also for Anglo. But it's a very well-balanced contract in that sense, which can live over the life of mine.
Yeah. Well, they seem to be happy, and you seem to be happy with that.
Yeah.
Before we wrap up here, I will re-emphasize a question because maybe I've got it wrong here. So this is the CapEx question here. So how much of the CapEx for startup alternative B is expected to be financed through profit generated during the first three years of operation under alternative A? I was under the impression that you were going for B rather than A. But—
Yeah, but I mean, the question is actually correct because alternative B, the base case now is the option A is actually a part of the B because that's the first phase of production. And it's true that part of the first four years, we will be in production. We will generate the cash flow, which will partly then offset the CapEx need, the investment need. So we can finance that through own cash flow. But we will come back to that more in detail. But that's why also we want to bring the operations into — the production into operation as fast as possible.
And it's also another thing. It's a matter of economic activity in Kirkenes, in the region, as soon as possible. It's important for everyone, not only for Grangex and the team we have, which I must say is a fantastic team in that sense. The knowledge we have around Sydvaranger is fantastic, good. And the engagement is from all parties in Grangex team is, I mean, yeah, I am very proud, I must say so.
And that's an excellent segue into the last question here before we wrap up. And this is also, as I understand it, from Kirkenes or in the local [community] in Sydvaranger. So they're basically asking if you will, well, put your money where your mouth is because they've been around for a long time. And this is a mine that has been around. So what reassurance can you give the local population that you're here to stay?
Well, we must say that our ability to get this into an execution phase, to build it and take it into operation is better than former owners, I would say. And this is probably because we have an integrated team, I mean, up in Kirkenes and the Grangex team together cooperate and bring this into it. And we have also the project financing knowledge. We have the project execution knowledge, which we normally don't have within a company like us. We have that. So we have taken all these, let's say, critical aspects of getting into operations seriously and not just saying that this is something we will fix later. We know how to do it. So that's the commitment I can say. We will do whatever it takes.
You're confident.
Somebody said that also, but we will do that.
Yeah. You're confident, and that's good to hear, and it's reassuring, I think, for everyone up in Finnmark. Well, what is the next news flow coming from you?
Well, I mean, we have the quarterly report, the Q4 or the year-end announcement, which will come in February 13th. Well, it will contain information around what we have talked about now also as activities after the year-end. We will have a lot of activities during this year. I mean, the feasibility studies to look out for in July, latest, I would say. We have the AGM and the first quarter report, which will also contain information, and we will give, that's the plan, to give continuous, not continuous, but regular updates on the progress of Sydvaranger, but also on Dannemora, of course, if something will happen there. And that is in Dannemora, the major task right now is to get the power commitment from the utility, actually.
Right. Well, Christer, it's been an absolute pleasure. One should really watch this space, I think. There's more news to come. It will be very interesting to see the development here. Thank you for coming.
Thank you.
We will say thank you to all you, well, listeners, and particularly those who were forwarding their questions. Thank you. We'll meet again. Thank you. Bye.a