Gränges AB (publ) (STO:GRNG)
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May 4, 2026, 5:29 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q2 2025

Jul 11, 2025

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to this second quarter earnings call for Gränges. My name is Jörgen Rosengren, Gränges' CEO, and I'm here with Oskar Hellström, our CFO, and Sara Lander Hyléen, our Vice President for Communications and Investor Relations. We'll be taking you through this presentation today. The second quarter was characterized by strong growth and very good cash flow. Starting with the growth, our sales volume increased by 22%, and that was driven by market share gains, in fact, in all regions, but most noticeably in Asia, where the very strong market share gains were enabled by the new facility that we have now acquired and ramped up in the Shandong province. The adjusted operating profit was SEK 436 million compared to SEK 471 million last year.

On the good side, we had a strong contribution from the combination of volume, price increases, and productivity, and that contribution offset certain negative effects in scrap and metal premium pricing. In total, we had in constant currency a 5% operating profit growth. However, in the quarter, we also had a negative effect of SEK 58 million in currency, most of which was due to translation effects. In the quarter, we had a strong cash flow, which was thanks to good working capital control and modest CapEx in the quarter, something we hope is a sign of more good things to come in that department. In the quarter, we also had good sustainability results. As already mentioned, we had market share gains in all of the regions, and in total, we then had good growth also.

In Gränges Americas, the two largest customer segments are HVAC and specialty packaging, and there we took significant market share in HVAC and also had good growth in it, but it was partly offset or it was offset then by some destocking in the specialty packaging sector, leading to a total growth of 0%, so flat, in Gränges Americas over a very strong second quarter of 2024. In Gränges Asia, we had very strong growth, so 102%. We doubled the business, in fact, also due to market share gains, and as I said, enabled by the new facility in Shandong, and most of that came in automotive, where we have many new exciting projects, but also in other niches enabled by the new technologies that we are able to produce in Shandong. In Gränges Europe, growth was modest, I guess you could say, but we did take market share.

However, we had some operational problems in the quarter, which prevented growth from being better still and led to a corresponding increase in backlog, and we hope to recover most of that in the third quarter of this year, in this current quarter. In total, we had a 22% year-on-year sales volume growth in the second quarter, as already mentioned. Tariffs, of course, are a current topic. It stays current also this week. There's been a lot of news about it. For Gränges, it's so that our regionalized strategy, where most of sales and production is in balance in all of our three regions, we have a setup that is quite resilient against tariffs. There are effects, though.

In the Americas, we have a large increase in the all-in primary aluminum price and an even higher increase in scrap prices, which means that we get lower what we call spreads, so the lower difference between the price for new aluminum and the price for old aluminum. However, the tariffs also make domestic U.S. production more competitive, which can be a good thing for Gränges over time, and on the third hand, tariffs could, of course, drive higher inflation and/or lower demand. In Europe, we also saw an effect of the tariffs, which indirectly then have led to a lower all-in primary aluminum price.

Scrap prices so far have decreased slightly less, which means that also in Europe, the so-called spreads are lower, and that means that in both Americas and Europe, when the difference between new and old aluminum price is lower, recycling becomes less profitable, and since recycling is a large part of Gränges' business, this was a profit effect in the quarter. In total, for Gränges in the second quarter, we saw an effect of an increased networking capital due to the tariffs and some margin pressure, but these two effects or the margin pressure effect was fully offset by sales volume, price, and productivity. In the second quarter, we had very strong sustainability performance, and we're now really back on track with regards to sustainability after a somewhat weaker first quarter.

We had record high recycling, we had all-time low carbon footprint, and we also continue to get good external recognition of our sustainability work, for instance, now in the recognition by the Financial Times as one of Europe's climate leaders. Capital expenditure and cash flow were two strong points, I think, in the quarter, and it's maybe important to remind the investors here of the fact that we are now at the very tail end of a long expansion phase. After 2025, we intend to go into a phase of utilization optimization of the capacity we have already built. The year 2025 will be the lowest capital expenditure for expansion year in many years, in five years, and in the next two years, we expect very low capital expenditure related to expansion. Instead, like I said, we will focus on utilization and optimization of the already existing plant.

With that, I would like to turn it over to Oskar Hellström, who will take us through the results for the quarter.

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

Thank you. Yeah, as we heard from Jörgen and as you can also see on this slide, Q2 was in many ways a very good quarter for Gränges, but at the same time also a challenging one. We continued to experience the solid sales growth despite the continued complex market situation, and the sales volume grew by 22% year- on- year to 159,000 tons or 564,000 tons on a rolling 12-month basis, as you can see on the left-hand side here. About 22,000 tons or three-quarters of the 22% increase was enabled by the new facility in Shandong, and as Jörgen said earlier, we could have reached an even higher sales volume should it not have been for operational issues in the European business, which limited deliveries to some customers in the quarter.

From an earnings perspective, we saw a positive year-over-year development in local currencies, but the significant strengthening of the SEK against primarily the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan led to a negative year-on-year currency effect of SEK 58 million. Weighed down by the unfavorable currency, the adjusted operating profit decreased by SEK 35 million- SEK 436 million. In constant currency, the adjusted operating profit increased by 5% year- on- year. Looking at the adjusted operating profit per ton, this decreased by SEK 900 from SEK 3,600 in Q2 2024 - SEK 2,700 in Q2 this year.

If we exclude the new business in Shandong that is currently at slightly above breakeven and the currency effect, the operating profit per ton would have been SEK 3,500 per ton on a like-for-like basis, so about SEK 100 per ton lower than last year, and I think that's a quite good representation of the current performance of the business. If we look at the remaining earnings drivers, we can note that on the negative side, we have, as Jörgen mentioned earlier, higher costs for aluminum scrap of about SEK 50 million in the quarter and about SEK 20 million in negative timing effects on European metal premiums, and this is an indirect result of the increased U.S. import tariffs on aluminum that creates imbalances in the aluminum market. We should note, however, that we managed to fully offset this with volume growth, price increases, and continued productivity improvements.

Let's now look at some more details here of the group financials for the second quarter before we move on to the operating segments. Again, we talked about the sales volume, 22% increase to 159,000 tons. Net sales increased slightly less, 13.5%, to close to SEK 7 billion. The lower increase in net sales than in sales volume is primarily explained by currency effects again and lower average fabrication price for the new business in Shandong. Looking at the earnings, again, the operating profit, 430, or sorry, not per ton, operating profit in absolute terms reached SEK 436 million, and there we highlighted the significant currency effect of SEK 58 million in the quarter when you compare with last year. I encourage you who would like to understand more about Gränges' sensitivity to changes in currency rates to have a look at note 31 in our annual report for 2024.

There is some good information about that there. Continuing with the P&L, the profit for the period reached SEK 293 million for the quarter, while the earnings per share attributable to Gränges' parent company shareholders was SEK 2.62. The operating cash flow was quite strong, SEK 445 million in quarter two, despite a seasonal buildup of working capital and negative impact from increasing metal prices in North America. The return on capital employed decreased to 11.2% by the end of the second quarter, and this decrease is primarily attributable to the additional capital we have added in Asia through the acquisition and ramp-up of the facility in Shandong. Moving on to the balance sheet, as a consequence of the seasonality of our business, we typically see a buildup of net working capital in the first half of the year, most of it in the first quarter, but also in Q2.

In addition to this, we this year also have effects from increased aluminum price in the U.S. on the back of the increased tariffs on the aluminum, but through continued focus on working capital efficiency, we managed to limit the actual working capital increase to SEK 62 million in the quarter. I think this is a very good achievement by the teams across all the regions, and it's a key contributor to the good operating cash flow in Q2. During the quarter, we continued to invest in developing the business, and the capital expenditure amounted to SEK 138 million in Q2. Of this, SEK 94 million is related to the completion of the ongoing expansion projects. The expansion CapEx is now gradually coming down here, as Jörgen talked about earlier. In the second quarter, we also distributed SEK 170 million to our shareholders.

The second dividend payment with the same amount will be made in November, and in total, this led to that the financial net debt decreased to SEK 4 billion or 1.6 times EBITDA at the end of the second quarter. This means that the net debt to EBITDA ratio remains well within our target range of between 1 - 2 times. All in all, I would say that I'm quite happy that we continue to have a strong operational cash generation and that we managed to reduce the net debt and leverage in a quarter where we also paid dividend to our shareholders. Now, let's continue with the operating segments, and we start then with Gränges Americas.

As you heard from Jörgen earlier, sales volume in Americas remains stable year- over- year, as the positive demand and share gain within HVAC compensated them for destocking activities at some of our packaging customers. In total, the sales volume in Americas was just above 60,000 tons in the quarter. In terms of earnings, we managed to offset all the external pressure from continued wage inflation, increasing market price for aluminum scrap, with increased sales volume, improved cost productivity, and higher average fabrication price, the latter then partly also derived from improved mix. Net changes in foreign exchange rates were, however, - SEK 33 million in the quarter, and as a consequence of this, the adjusted operating profit declined to SEK 290 million. This corresponds to a margin of SEK 4,800 per ton, so slightly lower than last year, even at constant currency, but still a very good margin.

Leaving Gränges Americas and moving on to Asia, here we continue to see a significant sales volume growth, primarily then driven by the successful ramp-up of our new facility in Shandong. In total, the sales volume increased by 94% to over 54,000 tons, and as I mentioned earlier, about 22,000 of these, or 82% of the growth, were related to the Shandong ramp-up. In terms of individual markets, the main growth came from sales of standard products in relatively low margin segments, but we also saw a positive development in our existing automotive business, where we gained share and increased sales to both new EV and traditional ICE platforms. In terms of earnings, we continued to improve the profitability in both the existing Shanghai plant and in the new Shandong plant in the quarter, despite then a negative currency translation effect of SEK 12 million compared with last year.

In Shandong, we managed to generate an above break-even operating profit at a utilization of around 55%, and in total, the adjusted operating profit increased by 27% to SEK 104 million, and the higher sales volume and improved productivity offset lower average fabrication price, the wage inflation, and depreciation. The adjusted operating profit per ton decreased from SEK 2,900 - SEK 1,900 as an effect of the new volume in Shandong and the negative currency. If you exclude this, the adjusted operating profit per ton remained flat on a like-for-like basis. Finally then, Gränges Europe. In Europe, we experienced stable to soft demand in most markets, which we successfully compensated by share gains, especially within automotive and specialty packaging, but due to operational issues, some deliveries were delayed, and this restricted the year-on-year sales growth to 1% in the quarter.

In total, the sales volume in Europe reached just short of 47,000 tons in Q2. The adjusted operating profit was SEK 74 million, and this includes negative effects from increased costs for aluminum scrap and timing effects on aluminum premiums, as well as the effects from foreign exchange rates that were - SEK 12 million compared with last year. On the positive side, we continued to improve the cost productivity in Europe in the quarter. With that, I hand over back to Jörgen, who will give you an outlook for the third quarter.

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Thank you, Oskar. The outlook for the third quarter is one of continued strong volume growth. We have and retain the ambition that we've had now for some time to keep the 20,000 or 25,000 tons of new volume enabled by the Shandong acquisition, and we intend, as we have done also now these last two quarters, to keep that facility above break even. For the rest of the group, then excluding the volume enabled by the Shandong acquisition, we expect mid to high single-digit sales volume growth in the third quarter of 2025 over the third quarter of 2024. We aim to continue to offset any external pressure with sales volume growth, with price increases, and productivity improvements. We do, of course, expect currently with the currency rates as they are today, for instance, to experience currency translation effects that are negative also in the third quarter.

That really concludes our prepared remark for the quarter, and therefore, I would like to turn it over to Q&A. Operator, are there any questions, please?

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial star five again on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Albin Nordmark from Nordea. Please go ahead.

Albin Nordmark
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Hello, Jörgen and Oskar. Albin here. I guess I can start with Shandong. Can you maybe help us with how much on EBIT Shandong did it contribute within the quarter?

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

Yeah, no, absolutely. I mean, we see a positive development of earnings in Shandong, and it's really a twofold thing there. It's the plant itself that starts to generate above break even now, as we've highlighted, but we also see when we run the Shandong and Shanghai plants as a system, we also can achieve some cost savings in our existing plant as a consequence. If you add these two things together and call that the Shandong effect, then that was about SEK 20 million in the quarter.

Albin Nordmark
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

All right, that's clear. The SEK 70 million needed for break even on EPS seems quite achievable, right?

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

We haven't, I mean, that's our target for the year and we have not changed that at this point.

Albin Nordmark
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Perfect. On the operational issues in Gränges Europe, what are those in practice, and how, let's say, how normal are these kinds of issues?

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Good morning, Albin. This is Jörgen. It's like this: we have operational issues like all companies have almost every day, right? This quarter, the combination of these issues with market share gains made the issues very visible, right? We would have been able to sell a little bit more than we did if we didn't have these issues. Concretely, it's about the availability of various pieces of machinery throughout our factories and the total aggregate ability to get goods out the door. It's very humdrum stuff, this. I guess it shows that if we want to reach our leadership ambition, we have to be on our toes every day, and we intend fully to resolve these issues and get the stuff out the door in the third quarter instead.

Albin Nordmark
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Great. Just the last question there on the mid to high single-digit growth. Is that then across the board, or is maybe Europe, since the operational issues, maybe more tilted to high single-digit and Americas to mid, or how should we think there?

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Yeah, we don't really make growth forecasts on the individual regions in an individual quarter, but we can say this: we intend to recover the volume that we didn't get out the door in the second quarter and the third quarter, and in Europe, that was an order of magnitude, I think we say 5,000 tons or so, Oskar, right?

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

Yeah.

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

All things equal, we should sell 5,000 tons more in Europe than we did last year, right? As you know, Albin, all things are never equal.

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

No, they never are, but I think it's a fair assumption to Jörgen's point, right, to expect that if we solve these issues and can deliver to customers, the growth in Europe will, of course, be boosted in the third quarter as a consequence of this. It's a fair assumption, I think.

Albin Nordmark
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Perfect. Thanks a lot. That's all for me for now. Thanks.

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Thank you, Albin.

Operator

The next question comes from Gustaf Schwerin from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.

Gustaf Schwerin
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

Hello, Jörgen, Oskar, and Gustav, Handelsbanken. I have a few, maybe picking up on that production disturbance in Europe. The 5,000 tons you lost in Q2, would you say those are mostly related to automotive customers? I'm curious to understand what to say the true outgrowth is here after a very strong Q1. That's the first one.

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

I mean, it's basically across all our product segments, but since Europe is a bit tilted in terms of product segments towards automotive, I think it's a fair assumption to make that a fair part of the 5,000-ton series is automotive business.

Gustaf Schwerin
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

Perfect. Secondly, on a similar theme, with automotive growing plus 30% in Asia, there we continue to see this massive outgrowth versus the market. I think if you would keep this pace, you should be running at close to 100% utilization level in the Shanghai unit. The question here is how long can you cater for these market shares? Is the Shandong factory coming closer to serve automotive customers, or will that still take some time?

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Gustaf, Jörgen here. I'm not quite sure I understand the question, but let me try to answer a question at least, and then we'll see if you have a follow-up. Our plan for Shandong is basically to keep the existing volumes that we had or these run rate volumes that we've now built up in the second quarter, and then within that volume to optimize the price, the mix, but also the cost to gradually improve the profitability of the volume we have. That's the plan. Of course, the markets around us are very volatile and so on, so there are many things that can happen to upset that plan, but that's the plan. Therefore, we don't expect to grow that volume further, straining capacity further. It's rather a question of optimization. That may or may not have answered your question. If it didn't, please ask a follow-up.

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

I interpreted the question a little bit differently. I think I got your question, Gustaf, that you wanted to know how much we can grow in automotive before we reach the capacity limits in Shanghai. Is that more your question?

Gustaf Schwerin
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

Yeah, exactly. I mean, if you run 30,000 tons automotive in Asia, I assume most of that is in Shanghai and then a bit of other niches there. You're very close to the capacity you have in Shanghai.

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

That is why we want to...

Yeah, and partly, Jörgen answered it, I think, already, because what we are doing, of course, is that we want to use the Shandong facility for this. In order to do that, we need to raise the level of quality and so forth in that facility, and that's also part of the gradually improving the mix that Jörgen mentions for Shandong, right? We will run these two plants as a system, and the Shandong facility will also serve automotive customers and has already started to do so to some extent.

Gustaf Schwerin
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

Yeah. Just to be very clear, because automotive customers typically have pretty long qualification times, right? I guess what I'm looking for here is, can you continue to really grow the automotive part of the business in the near term, or is this more of a 2026 theme for Shandong?

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

Obviously, we can probably sustain the volumes we have today. We managed to deliver this in the second quarter. Of course, it depends on how quickly we can meet the customer requirements in the Shandong facility, but this is an ongoing process that we're working on every day, and we have already started to ship to some customers.

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

I guess, Gustaf, part of the reason we're having a little bit of difficulty answering your question is we don't think about it in this way. We really, like Oskar said, think about these two plants, in fact, now three plants that we have in China as one production system, and what we're trying to do is to optimize across that production system for profit, basically. We don't see the... We don't have a number in our head saying we can't do more than X ton of automotive. That's not how we think about it. It's not how we manage the business, and therefore, we're having a bit of difficulty answering your question.

It's not so that Shandong cannot produce automotive volume, and it is so, as Oskar already said, that it is already producing automotive volume, thereby replacing some production steps, for instance, in automotive that we previously had to outsource, and that is part also of the SEK 20 million of EBIT contribution that Oskar spoke about before. Strategically, we are absolutely focused on growing in Asia, and growing in Asia also means growing in automotive. Practically, we're working on it in the way that we have described.

Gustaf Schwerin
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

All right. Lastly, on the U.S., HVAC performing well again. I think we've only seen one month of official shipment data out of the U.S., but you mentioned significant market share gains. That was the theme in Q1 as well. Can you give us a sense of how you think the market performed in the second quarter? Thank you.

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

We really can't. We basically deliver what is needed for the manufacturer of these units, right? We really cannot tell you how the market has performed because they were getting the information when you're getting it, I guess you could say. We have met customer needs. Maybe we could have sold just a tiny bit more because it's not at least so that we reduced backlogs in the quarter. We went into the third quarter with good backlogs. We're confident about the market. We don't know how it will work out for the second half.

Gustaf Schwerin
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

All right, thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Adrian Gilani from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead.

Adrian Gilani
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Yes, hello. Two questions from my end. First of all, I really appreciate the graph you showed on the different phases of expansion CapEx and then optimization. Just a quick follow-up on that. In the chart, you had zero expansion CapEx in both 2026 and 2027. Is that, I just want to clarify if we should see that as almost guidance of no expansion CapEx for two years, or could there still be changes or revisions to that?

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

We didn't say zero. We said approximately zero. We said approximately zero for the following reason: that expansion CapEx in this category of capital expenditure, we group only things that are of a significant nature and that really boost our capacity. Those projects typically have lead times, right? So far, we have not made any decisions for such new projects, right? Because of the lead time to first decide it, then project it, then actually implement it, and then finally pay, because of the timeline to do all those things in sequence, we can say with some confidence that there's going to be only limited cash flow in these two coming years. That's what the numbers intend to show.

As a reminder, maybe for the collective on the call here, Gränges usually we guide towards the area of saying that our maintenance CapEx is something like, I think we used to say 70% or so of depreciation, Oskar, right? As a rule of thumb, right? It can be more.

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

60%-70 % is a good rule of thumb there, yeah.

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Okay, so 60% - 70% as a rule of thumb. It can, of course, be more in one quarter and one year, slightly less in another year, but that's a good rule of thumb. On top of that, we're adding approximately zero for 2026 and 2027, and this is to give the community here a good feel for what our cash flow profile is going to be going forward, right? This is not some whim of ours. It's really a strategic decision that we made already back in 2021 when we launched our new strategy, Navigate, that we would, after having built a strong foundation for growth, enter a new phase which we call Building a Leader. In this new phase, the focus would not be on more expansion, but rather on making sure that the capacity we already have gives the most return to the shareholders.

Adrian Gilani
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you. For my second one, perhaps more for Oskar, I was a bit surprised to see you mention metal premium effects as a driver of lower earnings, as typically you're pretty good at hedging these. Can you just say whether this was something unusual in Q2, or is that a headwind that will persist for coming quarters as well?

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

That's a good question. We typically are not very good at hedging exactly these. We, in fact, don't hedge it because it cannot be done financially in an efficient way. The reason why we typically don't see this is that the metal premiums don't move very much. Metal premiums are a pass-through to our customers, similar as the basic LME price is. The difference is that in Europe, we can hedge the LME price, but we cannot hedge the premium in an efficient way. What happened now on the back of the tariffs is that the European premiums actually started to come down. In fact, they've come down by half over the last six months or so. That means for us when we buy metal, we buy at a higher premium than when we sell the metal two, three months later. That's the timing effect that you get.

Now it's very difficult, of course, to know what's going to happen with the premium going forward. I think our hypothesis, at least, is that it has stabilized somewhat on the current level. If the premium is stable, you don't get the timing effects. Of course, if the premium starts to move up again, for instance, if the tariffs to aluminum tariffs between the U.S. and Canada are changed or reduced, you will see positive timing effects on the European premium. That's what this is.

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

For clarification, Oskar, all your comments now, I think, refer only to Europe.

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

Overall.

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

In the U.S., the situation with the hedging is a different one.

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

Exactly. In the U.S., you can efficiently use financial hedging for the regional premium as well. That's a difference between the U.S. and Europe. This is only a European thing.

Adrian Gilani
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Okay, I understand that a bit better. Are you able to put a figure on how much that actually impacted earnings?

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

I think I mentioned that it was about SEK 20 million in negative in the quarter, and that's SEK 20 million then only in Europe.

Adrian Gilani
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Okay, perfect. Thank you. In that case, that's all from me. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Mats from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Mats Liss
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah, hi. Thank you. A couple of questions from my side as well. First, coming back to this operational inefficiencies you experience in Europe there, is it sort of, equipment related or more logistics, or is it, are you sort of high on capacity? Could you say something more about that, please?

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Good morning, Mats. Yes, I would say in that terminology, it's then equipment related, but it's also people related, right? We need to improve our ability to make sure the equipment is available to produce what it needs to produce in order to meet customer demand. In the quarter, we stumbled there, and we intend to recover in the third quarter.

Mats Liss
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. You are able to take on more volumes there. It's not a capacity issue as such. It's more that things need to be trimmed in better or...

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

We have definitely the capacity in a theoretical way, but in practice in this quarter, we do not have the capacity, evidently, right? We need to ensure that we can meet our theoretical capacity ability or, I mean, envelope. When we do, these problems will not be there.

Mats Liss
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Going to another area, China there, and the 55% capacity utilization you experienced in the second quarter there on Shandong, is it sort of this level you... Maybe you have touched upon that already, but is 55% the level you can do in 2025, or could you... If you get contracts available, you can increase it quicker?

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Yes, we could probably grow faster if we wanted, but we don't want to. Instead, we want to keep this current run rate volume and optimize it instead for profit. Growth always implies a working capital allocation, and we think that we have plenty of capital allocated to this arena as it is and would rather like to increase the return on that capital than to grow the capital base further.

Mats Liss
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Great. About Forex there, you had some headwind, and is this the full headwind given current currency rates? I mean, Oskar, he mentioned the annual report there in the note, but is it the full impact for the second quarter, or should we expect somewhat more in the third given current rates?

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

No, it's a good question, Mats. I think, of course, the majority of the currency effects we have are currency translation effects, right? When we consolidate the group into the SEK currency, it's an accounting effect only. It has nothing to do with the underlying performance of the business. That part, which is a large part of the currency effect, will be determined by what the actual currency rates are in the third quarter and what the actual rates were in the third quarter last year. The difference there is, you take the difference multiplied by our earnings, and you get to that number, right? That's part of it. The other part of it is, of course, smaller. It's the transaction effects, and there we hedge currencies. We have some currencies that are hedged at more favorable rates still than the actual spot rates in the market right now.

There you can expect maybe a little bit more negatives provided that currency rates remain on the current level. That said, the majority of the currency rates for Gränges are the translation effects. I think in terms of what they will be in the third quarter, it's going to depend on how the rates develop. If the current rates remain, I think it's fair to say that year-over-year effects are going to be slightly less negative in the third quarter than in the second quarter. Maybe around - SEK 50 million or so at the current rates, taking both the translation and a little bit of transaction effects into account there. This can change. Note 31 in the annual report, that's really the key to understanding this, as I said before.

Mats Liss
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thanks a lot, Oskar. Very good. Finally, just about the tariffs there. I mean, you have some imports to the U.S. from Europe of, if I remember right, these hot-rolled components that you supply to the auto industry. Is there any sort of... I mean, you also have the dollar impact there towards the euro, I guess. Are you still competitive with these volumes?

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

We could say we're competitive in the sense that we didn't lose so much business so far. Of course, the whole import of the tariffs, the whole impact of the tariff is going to be to make domestic production more competitive, right? Over time, that will make our production less, and any imported things into the U.S., less competitive than domestic production. That means, on the other hand, that also our own production in the U.S. becomes more competitive, and it also competes with imports, right? All things equal, probably if the tariffs would prevail or would persist at this very high level that they are at, then probably we would see over time a negative effect on our imports into North America or the U.S. at least, but a positive effect on our sales in the U.S. and also on our pricing power in the U.S.

That's as far as we can go, I think, in predicting the future, because as you know yourself, predicting the future in this area is particularly difficult.

Mats Liss
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Great. It sounds good. Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Oskar Lindström from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Danske Bank

Good morning. A couple of questions from me. First off, just a general one. You continue to gain volumes in a tough market through market shares, and you've been doing that for a year and a half, almost two years now. How long can these market share gains continue? Is there a point where they will start to result in lower pricing or earnings per ton in marginal new volumes?

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Oskar, good morning. Jörgen here. Thanks for joining the call and thanks for pointing out our persistent market share gains over several quarters now. That's nice of you. Of course, our plan is to continue to take market share. We have customers, we have competitors, we have an uncertain trade environment around us, right? It's really hard to predict. For sure, our ambition is to continue to take market share. That's for sure. The reason for that is, of course, that we have a lot of capacity that, at least theoretically, is not used yet in Asia, very evidently, but also in Europe and in the Americas. Our plan, quite simply, is to try to take market share to fill the capacity or at least to fill it to a higher degree than what we have today. Will that result in difficulties? Yes.

So far, we've been able to solve those difficulties as they occur.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Danske Bank

Somebody here earlier in the call pointed out that it's quite a long lead time, especially in the automotive segment, to qualify as a supplier. Do you have sort of a certain longer-term outlook here that you've already qualified certain volumes or products and therefore sort of know that you will be able to continue to grow above market for some time, or is it really sort of a quarter-by-quarter development?

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Our different market segments, different market groups work differently, right? As you point out, automotive is in a bit of a class of its own among the larger customer groups, at least in the long lead times that it takes to become qualified and so on, as you point out. There, of course, having been in this business for decades, we work continuously and consistently on gaining market share in the sense of becoming nominated for new platforms, for instance, right? New components also in the platforms. There, yes, we have a fairly good sense of what that means and, of course, an understanding where we were nominated and not nominated, right? That's some of the reason that we can have some confidence in our market share gains also for the future. That said, though, what that leads to in volume also depends on other factors.

For instance, it depends on the success of those new platforms or not. There, of course, as you know, there's some uncertainty, Asia versus Europe, Europe versus the U.S., and that uncertainty, of course, hasn't become lower in the current trade landscape, right? Also, you have the whole thing about EVs and so on. All things considered, we are confident in our market strength in automotive, and we're confident that all things equal, we will be able to continue to take share in automotive.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Danske Bank

Thank you. That kind of leads into my second question. Your Asian business has performed really well, both the sort of legacy business, the Shanghai business, and the new Shandong facility. We've also seen quite a lot of positive macro surprise in emerging markets and China over the past quarter. Is there a sense that demand among your customers has been boosted by some kind of pre-tariff export boom or any temporary higher activity due to the trade talks and threats of more tariffs?

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

That could be. It's not a strong sense, I would say, because the majority of our growth in Asia, and I guess our focus is also very much on the strong market share gains that we make there and all the new business and so on, right? It could be so. I guess nobody knows what will happen to exports from Asia to Americas or from Asia to Europe or from Europe to Americas. At least I don't know. It could be so.

Oskar Hellström
CFO, Gränges AB

I believe we see a little bit of this, Oskar, but I think what we have noticed in the quarter is primarily customers in India buying a little bit more from China because India and China also have a pending discussion on additional tariffs there. We see a little bit of this, but as Jörgen said, it's not really a really big thing that we know.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Danske Bank

All right, thank you. My final question is more specific. You mentioned destocking in the specialty packaging segment in the Americas. Could you expand on what that was, and is it over or what's the situation there?

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Packaging in the U.S. is an area where there has been stocking and destocking. It's a bit of a seasonal business, and it's also a business that is affected by the imports or non-imports depending on how the tariffs change. It's a bit unpredictable like that. Being American, these customers also go either full throttle forward or full throttle backward and so on, right? It's a bit unpredictable, but we haven't seen anything that would make a persistent destocking over several quarters sound like a likely scenario.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Danske Bank

Right. Okay. Thank you. I think those were my questions.

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Thank you, Oskar.

Operator

There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the President and CEO, Jörgen Rosengren, for any closing comments.

Jörgen Rosengren
President and CEO, Gränges AB

Thank you, operator, and thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for attending this second quarter presentation for Gränges, and wish you a good day and when it comes around, also a good weekend. Take care. Bye.

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