Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the H&M nine-month report conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session, at which time, if you wish to ask a question, you will need to press star followed by one on your telephone. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today, Thursday, September 27, 2012, at 1:00 P.M. U.K. time. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Nils Vinge. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you very much. Welcome to this telephone conference on the occasion of H&M's nine-month results. The presentation slides are found on our website, hm.com. Our CFO, Jyrki Tervonen, is with me today and we'll be happy to answer your questions after this presentation. In the third quarter, sales including VAT increased 10% in local currencies, and in comparable units, sales were unchanged. Looking at the nine-month period, sales including VAT increased by 11% in local currencies and were up by 2% in comparable units. We increased sales, and we keep taking market share despite continued tough conditions for fashion retail in many markets. We see this as a proof that H&M's strong offering with attractive collections is being appreciated by customers around the world. Sales were strong throughout most of the third quarter in June and July. August, however, did not live up to our expectations.
This was mainly due to the heat wave that swept across many of our markets in August, primarily in Europe. We saw that weather-dependent items such as heavy knit garments did not sell according to plan. As the weather has normalized, sales have improved nicely. Looking at current trading after the end of the third quarter, from the 1st to the 25th of September, sales increased by 14% in local currencies compared to the same period last year and calendar adjusted. Net sales in the third quarter grew by 7% to SEK 28.8 billion. The strengthening of the Swedish krona, mainly against the EUR, our biggest sales currency, had a large negative impact on sales and results in SEK. Looking at sales in some of our markets, please turn to the slide Sales per Market. Germany is our largest market, representing around 20% of group revenue.
H&M sales have been good despite a slow clothing market. Our strong sales development in the U.S. has continued. Sales have increased by 27% in local currency so far this year. The U.K. sales have also been strong, with an increase of 13%. We're also pleased to see Ireland with a sales growth of 18%. Our fast growth continues in China and Asia. We have 109 stores in China by now, 48 more than a year ago, and we keep expanding. Sales grew by 33% in China in the first nine months of the year. In Japan, following a tough year last year, we're pleased to see that sales have developed well, and we see great potential for H&M to continue growing in Japan. Sales development has been good also in our franchise markets. Going back to the third quarter, please return to the slide Third Quarter 2012.
Gross profit increased to SEK 16.8 billion, corresponding to a gross margin of 58.2% compared to 58.6% last year. As you know, the gross margin is a result of many different factors, external as well as internal, together with the decisions we make in line with our strategy to always have the best customer offering in each market. For the quarter, the relief in cotton prices had a neutral to positive effect on sourcing costs compared to the third quarter last year. This, however, was partly offset by cost inflation, mainly in Asia and by a stronger US dollar. Looking at markdowns in relation to sales, they were at the same level as last year. Thus the effect on the gross margin was neutral. H&M's long-term investments continue. These initiatives are aimed at broadening the group's total offering.
One example is the new brand & Other Stories that will be launched next year and which I will come back to shortly. In the third quarter, these investments made up a slightly larger portion of sales than in the second quarter, mainly because Q3 is a smaller quarter turnover-wise. Over to operational costs. Cost control in the group remains good. SG&A was SEK 12 billion in the quarter, up 8% in SEK and 11% in local currencies. The increase is explained mainly by the expansion. In comparable stores, SG&A was up marginally in the quarter, but on nine months, costs were down. Operating margin was 16.7% compared to 17.5% in the third quarter 2011. The strengthening of the Swedish krona against the euro hampered profit growth in the quarter. Profit after financial items was up marginally by SEK 4.9 billion.
In the nine-month period, though, profit after financial items grew 11% to more than SEK 15.6 billion. Net profit for the third quarter was SEK 3.6 billion after estimated tax rate of 26% and corresponding to earnings per share of SEK 2.19. Now looking at some key figures, please turn to the slide Key Data. Stock in trade was SEK 13.5 billion, an increase of 1% in SEK and 3% in local currencies compared to the same time last year. The stock in trade is well composed and at a good level. As you can see on the curve on the next slide, stock in trade in relation to sales were 11.3%, which is a good level also seen over time. Back to the slide Key Data. Cash flow from current operations was SEK 13 billion.
The main explanation for the increase is the growth in profit and the development of the stock in trade. Investments in terms of CapEx reached close to SEK 4.3 billion, mainly in new stores over the nine-month period. Our finances remain strong. Liquid funds and short-term investments amounted to SEK 13.5 billion. Now some words on our expansion. Please turn to the slide, Expansion in 2012. We added a net of 157 stores in the first nine months of the year, of which 54 in the third quarter. The group had a total of 2,629 stores at the end of the period. Of these, 2,494 were H&M, 55 COS, 55 MONKI, 21 WEEKDAY, and four Cheap Monday. Of the total, 78 are franchise stores.
H&M's strong brand attracts customers all over the world, which also makes us an attractive tenant, and we have been able to sign more store contracts than originally planned for the year. We are accelerating our expansion plan for 2012 to around 300 new stores net from previously announced 275. We are growing in all our markets. China and the U.S. are the largest expansion markets this year. We also see great opportunities for expansion in markets such as Russia, Italy, Poland, and the U.K. We're adding five new markets this year. Three of them have already opened, Bulgaria, Latvia, and Malaysia. H&M has been very well-received by customers in all of them. Expansion continues in Southeast Asia. On Saturday, Thailand will become a new franchise market, and later this year, we will open our second store in Singapore after our successful start there last year.
We also see tremendous customer demand and interest in the upcoming opening of the first H&M store in Mexico. It will be a fantastic store that will open in Mexico City's Centro Santa Fe later this year. COS continues to do very well and is opening in six new markets only in this year. Italy, Finland, Poland, Hong Kong, and Austria have already opened, and customer response have been very positive everywhere. In October, COS will open via franchise in Kuwait. If we take a look at next year, please turn to the slide Expansion 2013. We're looking forward very much to the opening of the very first H&M store in South America in Chile. It will be our first store in the Southern Hemisphere.
It will be a flagship store, and it will open at best location in Santiago de Chile, in the Costanera Center in the first half of 2013. Next autumn, we will open our first stores in Estonia and Lithuania, and in Southeast Asia, Indonesia will become a new franchise market. Expansion continues for our other brands as well. COS has signed for its first store in Norway to open in Oslo in the spring of 2013. Both MONKI and WEEKDAY will open in Japan in the spring of 2013, and MONKI will enter France with a store in Paris. In 2013, we will also offer our customers a completely new and very exciting brand & Other Stories. To give you a bit of flavor, please turn to the next slide. & Other Stories will be a great complement to H&M and the other brands in the Group.
It will be launched in separate stores and online in selected European markets in the spring. & Other Stories is aimed at women who love fashion and who want to create their own personal style. The brand focuses on the entire look. & Other Stories will offer a broad range of shoes, bags, jewelry, beauty products, lingerie, and clothes in a wide span of prices in a higher price segment. This allows for carefully selected qualities and great attention to details. Just like for all brands in the H&M Group, & Other Stories will offer the best price for comparable products. We believe strongly in this new brand and are looking very much forward to offering it to customers. Please turn to the next slide. We see significant opportunities for continued growth for the H&M Group, for both in stores and online.
In tandem with our expansion, we strive to offer our customers the best shopping experience at all times. That includes the development of multi-channel. hm.com is one of the world's most frequently visited fashion sites, and our webshop is top-rated by customers and eCommerce service. Online is becoming increasingly important for fashion retail, and market growth is particularly strong for shopping via smartphones and tablets. To cater the growing demand for mobile shopping, our H&M shop online will, already as from early 2013, be fully mobile adapted in our existing eight online markets. In parallel, we have also intensified work to roll out online shopping to more markets in the group. These initiatives, and as we need more time to prepare for the shop online in the U.S., mean that the launch of our webshop in the U.S. will be moved to summer of 2013.
Far this year, we've increased profit by 11% to more than SEK 15.6 billion. Despite tough market conditions, and despite the fact that we, in the current environment, are also ramping up our expansion, continuing our work of making the customer offering even stronger and investing for the future with many new initiatives. H&M has grown to become one of the world's strongest brands, with a business concept and a model that works across four continents and in small as well as big cities. Today, we have more than 2,600 stores in 46 markets. The way we see it, we are only at the beginning of our journey. We are now happy to take your questions.
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star, followed by one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press the hash or pound key. Your first question will come from Anne Critchlow. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Morning, it's Anne Critchlow from Société Générale.
Good morning.
Hi. Sorry, afternoon. I've got a question about the country data. In China and Russia, it seems that space is growing well above your total local currency sales growth. I just wondered how you could explain that, please.
Yeah. It's always a matter of timing, et cetera, and the size of stores, et cetera. It does not correspond to the development in like stores.
Okay. Can you say that like sales growth is positive in those countries?
Absolutely.
Or at least no worse than the average?
No. Again, when you look at just looking at the sales development, the number of stores development, you can't make those kind of conclusions because there's so many, as I said, it depends on timing. For example, if we open a lot of stores the last day of the quarter, you get very tilted figures.
Okay, thanks. Just one more question about the tax rate. I imagine you're expecting your tax rate to drop next year to 22%. Can you confirm that? Are you prepared to give guidance at this stage?
It's still just a government bill, we have to wait to see the final decision in the Swedish Parliament, we have to come back when that decision is done.
Okay, thanks very much.
Your next question comes from Jörg Nowaczyk. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Good afternoon. My name is Jörg Nowaczyk from TXCARGOSTAR in Germany. I have two things. First of all, can you give us an idea about how important the online business is for H&M at the moment? Maybe percentage-wise? That's the first one.
Yes, thank you for asking. I think we had this question before.
I know
growing and becoming more and more important in general and also for H&M, thus the investments we do and the ramp up we do, and that we talk so much about it. For competitive reasons, I'm sorry, we prefer not to break out the % of the different channels.
Okay. Second one, you were talking about & Other Stories, and you were talking about the prices. That means that & Other Stories will be more upscale than H&M? Can you give us any idea about the pricing?
It's correct that the prices, it's in a higher price segment compared to H&M. It's a wide range of prices. You could very simplify it, say that they start where H&M ends.
Okay. All right. You will also launch this in Germany, is that correct? Next year in spring?
We have said that we aim for eight to 10 stores first year in major cities in Europe. Perhaps some in Germany, we haven't said that yet. We will see.
It'll be mostly about accessories. Like accessories will have a much stronger part than in the H&M stores.
It's true that there will be a lot of accessories, also fashion and apparel will be very important. It will be very nice and exciting, and when you see it, you will understand how exciting this is.
Mm-hmm. Okay. All right. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Richard Chamberlain. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Hi, Richard.
Oh, hi, Nils. Sorry. I didn't hear that last bit. Hi. Yeah, two from me, please. First of all, what was the calendar adjustment on the September sales number that you talk about? Was that significant?
Yeah, we tried to help the market a little bit. If you just look at the first 25 days, there is a calendar effect, and we try to adjust for that, and it's approximately two percentage points.
Two percentage points positive?
Well, we give you 14, which is adjusted. Otherwise, it would have been 12.
Yeah. Okay, thanks. The other one is just, can you just talk about the kind of strategic thinking behind, first of all, ramping up the store growth, obviously with the growth of online sales being so strong. What's the thinking behind that, and at the same time, delaying the U.S. online launch until the summer of next year, please?
They are not correlated at all. For the revised expansion target for the stores, it is simply that entering a new year, we give you guidance, and we said 275. Some years, it gets more than that and sometimes less because it is a moving target. There are a lot of stores that we still haven't negotiated, et cetera. Things may change during the year. We see that the brand of H&M is becoming stronger and stronger. We attract more and more customers, so we become a more and more interesting tenant, which of course helps us.
Right. You are getting more approaches from landlords, presumably, and better rental terms, I would have thought as well.
The expansion team we have, the teams we have are very good, and they've done a great job. It is a combination of these things. That has nothing to do with the online issues that we talked about before.
Okay, thanks. The online issues, is that still getting the logistics organized and fully operational in the U.S.? Is that the main reason for the delay, or is it a number of different things?
No, as I said, it's a number of things. It's a combination of, first of all, yes, the adaptions in the U.S. to the U.S. shop online has been taking longer time than anticipated. That's one thing. At the same time, as I mentioned, we see that obviously online is growing very fast, very quickly, especially thanks to the fast growth of smartphones and iPads, et cetera. That's why we've intensified the work to launch, and already in the beginning of next year, we will launch this fully adapted eCommerce for-
mCommerce. Yeah
already in the eight existing markets. Very exciting. At the same time, we also have allocated more resources for the rollout of H&M shop online in the rest of the group. Hopefully-
Right. Okay
in all, create more customer value after the decisions we are going to take. Unfortunately, the U.S. customers will have to wait until the summer. As we said, we think that the total value, this will be greater.
Sure. Yeah. Okay. All right. Thanks very much.
Your next question come from Jamie Merriman. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Good afternoon, it's Jamie Merriman from Sanford Bernstein.
Good afternoon.
My question's about the gross margin, in particular, I know that there are a lot of factors, like you said, internal and external. I was wondering if you could give us some idea about the magnitude of the internal versus the external factors in the quarter, and maybe also what you're seeing in terms of price, both on a like-for-like basis and on a mixed basis.
Yeah. It's correct, as you mentioned, that it's both internal and external factors affecting the gross margin. Simplified, you could divide the factors, of course, the external factors, it's all about cotton, the wage inflation, the transportation, the capacity, also for us, the euro-US dollar relation. Then we have the internal factors as we are having an income statement by function, we include also a lot of other things in the cost of goods sold, not only the FOB price for the goods. As we said in the report, we are doing long-term investments, these long-term investments in the sourcing organization, the buying office organization, in the logistics, they are affecting the cost of goods sold and also accordingly, the gross margin. Most important is the.
Decisions that we take when it comes to our customer offering. As we have said before, that's always the starting point, to look into that we have the best customer offering on each market. We prefer not to go exactly and give a magnitude of each factor. I think it's really important to understand that the cost of goods sold is including much more factors than only the FOB prices. Also to really be clear that the gross margin will be a result of the decisions, both when it comes to the decisions we are taking with the customer offering, but also the long-term investment. Reflecting those, we can say that the gross margin for the third quarter this year is more or less in the range that we planned.
Okay. On the pricing, I understand that you said you kept markdowns the same, but in terms of like-for-like pricing, or was there a mix shift towards lower priced products within the quarter?
No, we don't comment exactly on our pricing strategy for competitive reasons. Again, our target is always to have the best customer offering, and that's a combination of price, fashion, and quality. Sorry.
Okay. Thank you.
Your next question come from Fraser Ramsden. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Hi, it's Fraser Ramsden from Nomura in London. Just a question about the gross margin. There were some comments on Bloomberg earlier from Mr. Persson suggesting that in the fourth quarter, currency and input cost factors will broadly offset each other. Presumably what you mean by that is the external factors should be broadly neutral in the fourth quarter. I just wanted to confirm I had understood that comment.
Yeah, that's correct. That looking into the cotton, the capacity, wages, inflation, transportation, and the currency, US dollar and euro mainly. Theoretically looking, it's more or less neutral for the fourth quarter.
Okay.
It's too simplified because it's really based on spot prices, and the reality is some more complicated.
Okay. Internal factors would be in addition to that, i.e., incrementally negative in the fourth quarter?
No. What we say is, looking at those five external factors, we estimate, looking at the spot prices, et cetera, that it should be fairly neutral. When talking about the gross margin for the fourth quarter, that will be dependent on our decisions, what we will make for decisions when it comes to our customer offering. That will be then the most important thing.
Okay, understood. One other question, if I may, just really coming back to the first question on your tax rate next year. I don't want to sort of come away with the wrong impression. Were you sort of saying that subject to implementation in Swedish Parliament, you would expect the tax rate to drop to 22%? Or would it likely be some smaller number given that not all of your taxable profits are in Sweden? Sorry, some larger number.
Yeah. You mean the tax for the whole group?
Yeah, exactly.
It will most probably not be exact 22%, because as you said, we also have taxation in other countries with different we are acting in almost, excluding the franchise countries, over 30 countries with different tax rates. Of course, they will also influence the group tax rate.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Your next question come from Simon Irwin. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Hello, it's Simon Irwin from Credit Suisse. Could I just go back to the gross margin issue, and particularly the influence of FX, because it's quite difficult for us to work out the lag in terms of the FX. Is it fair to say that the negative headwind that you see in terms of sourcing on FX is worse in 4 Q and will be worse again in, or it's pretty similar in 1 Q from what you can currently see? You are obviously offsetting that with better dollar buying terms. Is that correct?
Yeah, that's pretty much correct.
Okay. Just in terms of the online launches, you've only launched one market since 2007. You appear to be inferring that there will be an acceleration in online launches once you've got this new platform up and running and the U.S. What are you going to do differently that allows a more rapid rollout of online capability going forwards?
First of all, we just said that we have allocated more resources, which is number one, in order to have it happening and make it happen faster. Of course, learning from history, we are reluctant to give an exact date, of course.
Right. Is there going to be a different structure? Are you going to be able to, say, provide eCommerce from one center to a larger number of countries, particularly, I'm thinking of Southern Europe or France and Southern Europe, rather than having to put facilities in each market, or just in terms of the infrastructure and the way you organize yourselves?
Well, before going into details, we all agree that there is a huge opportunity for us, in front of us when it comes to online shopping and mCommerce and all of it. Exactly how it will look, we will come back to. There is no secret that we are investing a lot in this, and we look really forward to have it in all our markets.
Okay. Just in terms of the impact of & Other Stories, I think you have flagged already an increase in OpEx this year as you move towards the launch. Should we think about some additional cost beyond what you're putting through this year into next, as you go live with this brand?
Always when we are starting up a new market or a new brand, it's connected in the initial phase. Of course, there will be investments. These are really important investments we have to do to be able to be even stronger in the future. Of course, going like we have been doing the past two years, we have entered 10 new markets, and for sure it's much more expensive to open one store in new market than in an existing market. There will be initially, investments and cost connected to new brands, new markets.
Fine. Thank you very much.
Your next question come from Chris Chaviaras. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Good afternoon, guys. Chris Chaviaras from Barclays here.
Hello.
Hello. Two questions from me, one after the other. The first one on the online. Will there going to be any extra costs associated with the intensification of your efforts on launching in more countries this year and next, or the investment has been pretty much done? That is my first question.
Yes, there will be investments when ramping up the resources for rolling out the online on all our markets. Yes, there will be.
My second one actually would be again, on some longer term strategic initiatives you got. Since you are ramping up your space expansion, assuming that you are going to launch in the U.S. in summer, as you've said, and then rolling it towards more markets, would that affect the magnitude of your space expansion going forward? Or this 10%-15% store growth that you have given still holds?
We've had this question many times, we say again, the answer is no, it does not affect our plans. The way we see it today, there is still a lot of potential to open new stores, we feel very comfortable with a 10%-15% target. Of course, in the very long term, something else. Still, for many years to come, we feel comfortable with a 10%-15%, and we think that online is a very good complement to physical stores.
Okay, thank you. If you allow me a very technical question and the last one, sorry I hadn't planned that. When did you start investing about the new concept & Other Stories? You mentioned that in the previous release, when did you actually actively start investing for that new concept in terms of the timing, I'm trying to see in the quarters, if this is something that you can disclose.
We continuously invest a lot, not just in the figures, the CapEx figures. We take a lot of directly in the P&L, those are long-term. We said in the beginning of this year, one example is this new store chain or brand online, the & Other Stories. We also have, parallel to that, a lot of other initiatives going on. It could be also extension of existing categories or new categories at H&M, et cetera. Exactly when we started with & Other Stories, it's difficult to say.
Yeah. Okay.
It starts with an idea, and then it ramps up, and a lot of things going on parallel.
The cost and the investments, they come gradually and, of course, in the initial phase, then it's more ideas, discussions, and then if we will go further on those discussions, then of course, we start to build up an organization and then, it's a gradually, it's a process.
Okay. Thank you.
Let me remind you that it's star 1 to ask a question and the hash or pound key to cancel. Your next question come from Richard Edwards. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Yeah. Hi, it's Richard Edwards from Citigroup.
Hi there.
Hi. It was just going back to the space CapEx questions. The 300 stores you're planning to open this year, the pickup from 275. Should we assume next year's 300 or more than 300 units that you're going to open, or is this year's raised target really just taking some of next year's opening program into this year for this?
Let's come back to that in connection to the full-year report. Now this is the best estimate for this year. We'll come back about 2013. The long-term target of 10%-15% remains very intact.
Okay, just on CapEx for this year, are you still looking at something around the EUR 6 billion mark?
Yeah, it might be about SEK 6 billion due to the ramping up of the expansion with 25 stores, et cetera. It would most probably be over SEK 6 billion, maybe in the range of SEK 6 billion-EUR 6.5 billion.
Great. Thank you.
Your next question come from Rebecca McClellan. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Yeah. Hi, good afternoon. It's Rebecca at Santander.
Hello.
Hi there. A couple of small questions. Firstly, constant currency OpEx and inventory growth, if possible, please, for the third quarter.
Sorry, again, constant currency growth of what?
Of inventories and of OpEx.
3%.
For inventory, it's 3%. OpEx, please?
11.
11% in the third quarter.
Yes.
Thank you. I've missed part of this call, I'm afraid. You talked about the quarter external factors netting to neutral for the gross margin, and you talked about the third quarter internal factors being in line with plan. Are your fourth quarter plan for the internal factors similar to the third quarter? In terms of the range, i.e., should we expect a similar to fourth quarter gross margin outcome? How can you help us with that?
Rebecca, you know that's your job. We don't give you guidance, sorry. The only thing we say, you know what we say, it's always about having the best customer offering each quarter.
Okay. All right. Thank you.
Thanks.
Your next question come from Richard Cathcart. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Hi, it's Richard Cathcart from Espirito Santo.
Hi.
Hi. I just wanted to ask a couple questions about the move into South America. First of all, are there any particular reasons why you chose Chile first? Secondly, how quickly-
Yes.
Sorry.
Sorry, let's take one at a time so Yeah, of course, we are looking at many new markets in the southern hemisphere as well. In Chile, we found a very good location in combination with the fact that Chile, as a country, rates very high in Ease of Doing Business index.
Okay, great. Just for the rest of South America, are there any countries in particular that you're targeting? Would you try and create a kind of a mass of stores in Chile before moving into some of the other countries in the region? Would you be prepared just to open individual stores as they come up?
No, as I said, we are looking at many different markets. Again, going back to what I just said, most other countries in South America rate much further down in that index I was talking about.
Okay. Actually, that's it. Thanks very much.
Okay. Thank you.
Your next question come from Nick Fhärm. Please announce your company and ask your question.
SEB Enskilda, good afternoon. Can I ask you, in terms of FOB prices out of China at this stage when you're ordering stuff, sorry, goods, where would they be compared to a year ago?
We prefer not to go into our FOB prices, and that we want to keep to ourselves for competitive reasons.
Generally speaking, in the market, are your prices down or are they still up year-on-year?
Nick, we give you the external factors. What we pay is another thing, because that's up to us how we negotiate, et cetera, how efficient we are, and of course, the mix of products and material fashion, et cetera. Yeah, sorry.
A follow-up question. I've asked you about a year ago how you're proceeding with a potential switch to use the CNH, the convertible renminbi, as your preferred means of payment, as opposed to the US dollar in China. How is that project, if there is any proceeding?
We are, of course, following the development closely, but we have nothing concrete new to tell you at the moment. More than the banks are so expensive.
Oh, really? Final question. On the cost side, I suppose you've definitely been taking a lot of ramp-up costs for IT systems, et cetera, and in particular, I'm thinking about the SAP installation. How is that process progressing?
It's true that SAP is one of the different vendors and global suppliers we work with, and I would say it's going according to plan.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Your next question come from Adam Cochrane. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Good afternoon. It's Adam Cochrane at UBS here.
Hi, Adam.
Hi. Two questions harping back to the gross margin, I'm afraid. Firstly, in terms of the better than lower cotton prices year-on-year and your ability to negotiate with the factories, et cetera, Q3 was maybe a little bit more disappointing than we thought. Is it really the fact that it takes longer to come through, or has the gain actually been less than you or we originally anticipated?
Yeah. When looking at the external factors, the cotton prices, of course, they are not following exactly the spot prices. They are a delay, of course, in those. Maybe it's too theoretical to just look at the spot prices and think that they will go through at once.
Okay. It's no different to what when you were buying the products six months ago, this is broadly as you expected it to be for the period?
Yeah, absolutely. Again, it's not that we have six-month lead times or everything. In some cases, we have two weeks. It's a mixture, and that's why the Excel models don't really work in reality always.
Mine, certainly not today.
Sorry.
In terms of the second question, it was really when we look at your long-term investments, the gross margin impact is really you've referred to as it's because it's a smaller proportion of sales within the quarter. Does that mean that the long-term investment is pretty, in absolute currency amounts, is similar through each of the quarters? It just varies in terms of the impact on gross margin by the sales in that given quarter.
Yeah, looking at the absolute currency, it's more or less on the same level, slightly higher in the first quarter compared to Q2, but not materially.
Is that, in terms of year-on-year, is there much change? Is that a material change year-on-year in that investment?
Yeah, the year-on-year, it's bigger than compared to Q2.
It probably pushing it too far to ask for any kind of quantification, though, isn't it?
Sorry, we-
We're a very bad liar.
All right. Thanks for your help.
Thanks.
Thanks.
Your next question comes from Gillian Hilditch. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Hi, guys. It's Gillian Hilditch from JP Morgan. I just wanted to ask, in light of the CapEx creeping up slightly, do you think we should be thinking about a flat dividend year-on-year in terms of making sense when we're forecasting?
The dividend, that's a question for the board and finally for the annual general meeting.
Okay, thank you.
Your next question comes from Geoffrey Ruddell. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Hi, it's Geoffrey Ruddell from Morgan Stanley.
Hi there.
Just a quick question about the Southern Hemisphere. Obviously, the challenge or one of the big challenges of going into the Southern Hemisphere, is having the seasons reversed and having to therefore have winter product in summer and vice versa. How are you getting around that? Have you established a completely separate design team, or are the same individuals designing summer and winter products at the same time?
We have developed a very good solution. Meaning that the customers in the Southern Hemisphere will get the latest fashion as well as current season. Exactly how we do it, of course, we'll keep to ourselves.
You are going to have product that is only available in the Southern Hemisphere at that time of the year. Is that right?
As I said, we follow the seasons. Those customers will be able to get latest trends as well as current season. In some cases, it might be before you see it in the Northern Hemisphere, some cases after.
Okay, that's great. Thanks very much.
Your next question comes from Pierre Ferragu. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Hello. Pierre Ferragu from Bryan, Garnier.
Hello, hi.
Hi there. Just three short ones from me. The first one on the external factors, I just wanted to check in Q3 that the external factors put together were neutral on your gross margin because reading your report, it sounds like they were slightly positive.
They were slightly positive when looking at the aggregate for those five factors.
Okay, thank you. The second one is there no risk of greater discounting over the next few months given the poor August figures, or are you basically going to roll over that stock into autumn?
We're looking at our stock at the end of the third quarter. We are very happy with the level and the composition of the stock. When it comes to possible markdowns, discounts in the fourth quarter, it's far into early. It's still over two months to go.
Yeah. Okay. The final one, can you tell us what the size of the & Other Stories stores will be?
it would most probably start in a range of from 600 sq m up to also a little bit over 1,000 sq m. It's a flexible concept.
Okay. Thank you.
As a final reminder, to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press the hash or pound key. Your next question comes from Fraser Ramzan. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Oh, hi. Sorry, just one quick follow-up. It's about your dividend policy. Could you just confirm, first of all, that your regular payout is 50%? Then could you Sort of just reading around it seems like you aim to distribute surplus liquidity. What kind of factors would be important to you in determining surplus liquidity or not?
Yeah, that's correct. It's 50% as a base rule, the surplus liquidity, it's also always that we have the financial strength to take possible opportunities. We have the financial strength to act really quick. That's the whole idea.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Your next question comes from Paul Rossington. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Good afternoon, Paul Rossington, HSBC.
Good afternoon.
Good afternoon.
Hi. Just on the SG&A line, I guess really. I see that the final quarter is going to see a significant uplift in the number of new stores you're going to open. I'm sure you've got them all signed, does that mean we're going to see a quite an acceleration in SG&A quarter in that final quarter?
We have a really good cost control, we prefer not to give any forward-looking statements when it comes to SG&A. We have a good development during the year with sales during the nine months increase in local currencies by 11% and the SG&A by 10%. That's also including all the long-term investments that we are doing. We prefer not to go into and give any prognosis for the fourth quarter.
I also like to remind you that part of the cost for these 25 additional stores are already taken in the third quarter because it's a ramp-up cost before.
In that case, perhaps a second question. Is the opening profile, kind of, the first three quarters of the year to date materially different from where you thought it would be at the beginning of the year?
What do you mean opening profile? Sorry. Could you-
I.e., the number of stores you've opened year to date in the first nine months, is that broadly in plan with where you thought it would be?
Broadly in plan, maybe we have.
Yeah. Broadly, as Nils said earlier, when entering a year, it's really a moving target. It's not that we exactly can say that will be the second quarter, third quarter, fourth quarter, but there are no major deviations to our plans.
That's great. Thank you so much.
Your next question comes from Rebecca McClellan. Please announce your company and ask your question.
Hi again. Two questions, please. Firstly, what's your operating break-even point, please, in terms of like-for-like?
Sorry. It's very difficult to give you an exact figure for that. I think history has proven that we have been able to, despite negative like-for-like, sometimes we've increased efficiency. The reason why we have a target always increase like-for-like sales is, of course, that there is always an inflation when it comes to salaries and rent, et cetera, in the stores.
Maybe just marginally positive then.
Yeah, as Nils said, in the long term, of course, it's important that we have a like-to-like growth because there is an underlying inflation in the OpEx. The breaking point, I think, in the long term, it has to be a positive like-for-like.
Okay. Secondly, can you just remind me where your cash is and how? Is it sort of within the European operating companies, or is it all consolidated back in Sweden, or?
Most of the cash is in SEK.
Okay, thank you.
There are no further questions at this time, sir. Please continue.
Okay. Thank you very much for participating in this conference call. Welcome back for the full year results on the 30th of January next year. Goodbye.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating.