Earnings Call: Q1 2019

Apr 26, 2019

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the Q1 presentation from Loomis. As mentioned, my name is Patrick Anderson. I'm the CEO of Loomis. And with me here today, I have Christian Achebe, who is our CFO and also Anders Harker, Chief Investor Relations Officer. So we start the presentation and turn to next page, which is Page 2 and the highlights of the quarter. I'll go through them here, but also come back to some of the bullet points later in my presentation. So we had recent acquisitions, as mentioned before, Siemens, we acquired the Siemens Company in Germany in January 2019. So that gives us a very good presence in the German market. We also recently announced that we're buying prosugur cash in France, which turns the French market into actually 2 player markets. The real growth in the quarter was 5%, and that's driven by the acquisition we made in Chile, Chile Valores, and the France acquisition of the FX company's CPOR. The organic growth was at 2%. So we're seeing increased growth in Europe. We also see that the U. S. Growth in the quarter was impacted by less workdays, but also restructuring program we have for the international business. I'll talk more about that later. Operating margin was 11.3%, and we see that the effects we have from the restructuring programs in Europe is paying off. And we also see more coming from those programs in the coming quarters. We see also some somewhat negative effect on the business from the yellow vest activities in France. We have integration, restructuring of Loomis International in the U. S, which is actually impacting the result positively. As I said, I'll come back to that. Improved EPS by 19% in the quarter, and here is also included SEK 33,000,000 capital gain from the sale of the Artecat business, which we don't see as core for Loomis. And operating cash flow was at 31% in the quarter. So we turn to next page, which is Page 3. And here you see a slide of the operating development operating margin development over the quarters. I just want to highlight that this is actually the best or all time high quarter in a single Q1 ever in the history of Lumi. So I think that's a good picture showing the strength of the business. And you also we have an all time high quarter with or without the IFRS effects. So let's turn then to next page, which is Page 4 and the U. S. Business. So we had in the U. S. A organic growth of 2%, and that's impacted by less workdays, less invoicing days in the country. We also, as I mentioned, we have restructuring of the international business in the U. S. As some of you remember, we integrated international business in the domestic business into 1. And we have decided to take out, stop less profitable international business, mainly in supplying or handling transport and storage of diamonds and jewelry for fares. And these contracts have not been very profitable and that we have sort of that business we have closed down. We have also closed 2 branches, which are mainly focused on the international business. So having said that, we also see that SafePoint business continues to develop positively. I have a slide on that separately later on. And we have actually also then added a recycler concept to our product portfolio. And recyclers means that it's bigger machines or bigger machines with technology that are focusing on mid- and large size retailers. And they these concepts, they are recycling the cash in store before it's then taken out by us or some of our competitors. It's a more limited opportunity in comparison with SafePoint, but we think it's a very good fit with our business in the U. S. And we've started the launch in the U. S. With a number of pilots, and I would say the interest is on a high level. So let's then turn to next page, Page 5 and talk about save points. And right now, we have about 28,200 installation in the U. S. Markets. And the revenue growth was very strong in the quarter, fourteen percent. And we had 12.53 to be exact, new installations in the quarter. So very good pace when it comes to installation of SafePoints. The retention rate continues to be very high. So if a customer has chosen this concept, they stick to it. We should also then remember that we have now a very big installed base. That means that we need to pay much more attention to keep that base, to keep the existing clients. And that's why we also mentioned now the number for the refreshes, so extended contracts during the quarter, 324. And that number is hopefully going up quarter by quarter. But all in all, a very good SafePoint quarter and the pipeline of new contracts continues to be very good and to be substantial. So then let's turn to next page, which is Page 6 and talk a bit about the operating margin. As I mentioned before, actually the impact of the restructuring of the International business is already somewhat visible in the margin numbers. And I have to say that the margin on this level is for us, it's a very, very strong sign of a good business in the U. S. So we had a very strong quarter 1 last year, and now we're topping that. And for me, that's a really, really good sign. So the underlying CIT CMS margins are stable compared to last year, which again is very good. We continue to focus on branch efficiency and further improvements are expected. So we are doing really well on the efficiency side, supported by new software, new technology, which is sort of helping the internal efficiency. So a very strong margin in the U. S. So let's turn to next page, which is Page number 7 and talk a bit about Europe. So the real growth in the quarter was 6%, And the acquisitions, as I mentioned, in Chile, Chile Valores and the CPOR business is adding to the real growth. We are integrating these businesses as we speak, and these integrations are going very much according to plan. We also see that organic growth has now taken a big step up. We are growing by 2% in the quarter, and I would say there is good contribution from all countries in Europe, but I'd like to mention some of them. Latin America, so Chile and Argentina, Spain is doing very well, Turkey is doing well, Belgium and Austria. But as I said, all countries in Europe are doing really well this quarter. Operating margin ended at 10.8%, and we have positive impacts from the restructuring programs that we're running in our run-in France and Sweden, actually that we have finished in France and Sweden. And we see very good effects, and I think that and we will see further effects to be realized in the coming quarters. We as I said, we have some negative effects from the yellow vest in France, but not as much as we had in Q4. So still, especially on Saturdays, it's difficult to do service in some of the major cities. It's difficult to get to the stores to take the to pick up the cash and so on. So that's not a big problem, but it's a bit disturbing the business. And we have efficient programs in many countries. The day to day operational efficiency programs, and that's ongoing and working very well. And we see also positive effects on the margin from the acquisition of the French FX business. We are now integrating that business with the French business. We will or have plans now to expand that FX business also to other countries in Europe, but more about that in a later presentation. So let's turn to next page, which is Page number 8. And just have a short look at the statement of income. We see that just two main highlights, the margin 11.3% versus 10.5% last quarter or actually Q1 2018 and earnings per share growing 19% in the quarter. Then turn let's then turn to next page, which is Page number 9. And just to inform about a Capital Markets update that we're doing in London September 5. So it's a more it's a shorter, more condensed Capital Markets Day, just a couple of hours. And the intention is to give an update on where we stand in terms of how we're doing compared to the financial targets we have until 2021, but also talk about the markets, how they are developing and talk about how we are developing the business, but also highlighting some new exciting business possibilities we have in the future. So we will send a separate invitation in short. So then we turn to Page number 10. And I say, operator, we are now open up for questions, please. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Thank you. We will now take our first question. Please go ahead. Your line is now open. Hello? It's Emile Poulard from Kepler Cheuvreux. I have a few questions. First on the U. S. Organic growth, Could you give us the quantification of the calendar effect and the discontinuation of international business on the organic sales, because we can see most of the sales growth has come from SafePoint, but the rest is flat. So just to get a sense of what the underlying trend that would be helpful. You also talk about the recyclers. So what timing should we assume in terms of the impact? And also in terms of the model, how should we look at it given the safe relatively CapEx light business here. You have a hardware that can be a bit more costly. There's also probably some cannibalization effect. So just to understand the mechanics of your cash recycling business in the U. S. And the potential impact in the coming quarters. And last, on the European margin, you consider the TIPO, which is a fairly high margin, and you mentioned some of the traction in the restructuring in France and Sweden. But could you give us an idea of how high you believe the European margin could end up the year at, please? Thank you. All right. I'll start. So just come back to the growth underlying growth in the U. S. So we had 2 effects basically, which I mentioned, which is let me just explain that. So we have the less working date. That's quite clear what that is. And then we have the restructuring on the Allied business. And I think that one part of the Allied business is, of course, the effect on the bottom line or the top line when you take out contracts, but also taking a bit of management attention on that because we really want to turn that around quickly. So it's not that's one part is the financial impact or the figures and numbers, but they're also taking a bit of management attention. That's one thing. I think that we also see in the quarter there was not that many new contracts, especially SafePoint is fine, but on the CMS side, there were less contracts out on the market. I would expect the underlying growth would be around between 4% 5% to just give you. And it's very difficult to judge that, but just to give you a number, between 4% 5%. So sorry, just to be clear, that's including SafePoint's contribution? Everything, everything, yes. Yes. Okay. And then Recyclers, we have had a full focus on the Safepoint concept for a long time, but now added, I think, a very good recycling concept. I think that we will see the pilots now during a couple of quarters. I think that if there's any effect, it should come by Q3, but mostly Q4. There are actually quite a limited cannibalization because I think that the big retailers, they are not so keen on the SafePoint concept. I mean, the really big ones. They're going for more recycling concept or other concepts. So I think that they're limited cannibalization. However, the market potential is also limited. It's not as big as the 400,000 possibility for Save Point. But I think that, that's a good opportunity for us. European margins, I don't want to speculate too much on where we end up. What I'd like to say is that we're in a good momentum in Europe when it comes to margin. We will increase margin and we will come back after a, let me say, a softer 2018. Stop my side. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. We will now take our next question. Yes, good morning. This is Callejon Bonnavier from DNB Markets. Just looking at the 2 pending acquisition of Siemens and Prosegur's cash French operation, how do you see that playing out, the competitive authorities? And when do you think it hopefully can be cleared? When it comes to Ziman, we have just received information that the competition authorities would like to make a more thorough investigation, which is absolutely according to our plans. That's what we expected because it's a quite big acquisition and it's changing the market dynamics in Germany. So that's exactly according to our plans. I would guess my estimate is somewhere in Q3, we will get some kind of answer from the competition authorities in Germany. But it's going absolutely according to plans. What they will say, it's hard to say, of course, but some kind of reply we will get approximately in Q3. When it comes to Prosegur, it's slightly different because that acquisition doesn't have to be approved by the competition authorities. It's the thing is there that it needs to be a negotiation or talks with the unions. And I think that, that will happen in the next month or 2. So I would expect in summertime, so July, August, somewhere around that time that we will be able to start the integration in France. And when you look at you basically just completed your own rightsizing of your legacy operation in France. How are your relations with the union to take this to the next level? We have very good relations in it's not an easy country to make changes, to be honest, but we have very good relations with the unions. And we have a very good plan. We know exactly what we don't want to do in France. And I shouldn't speculate too much, but I don't see too many obstacles in that respect. I noticed that you had a quite a large working capital tie up in the quarter. Is there any particulars in there? Or is something that will normalize over the year? I'll hand that over to CFO, Christian, here. We have a timing effect coming partly from very positive in Q4 that we then mentioned also with the salaries that was paid out in beginning of January rather than late December related to U. S. And France mainly. So that could be could estimate that to approximately $100,000,000 Then you also have an accounts receivable, partly related then, of course, to that we are growing our business and that you have on a separate line. And then if we also look in the other working capital, we have an impact from that we have acquired gold actually to our CPOR operation. We believe that is a good business to do. And this time, it was more beneficial for us to do the hedging without the credit lines rather with other financial instruments. And that's why you get the impact in working capital. So that should be seen as a timing effect. But if we look at this over, say, a rolling 12 months period, is there any change to the underlying fundamentals of you having, say, a negative working capital as total in the operation over time? No significant change. I would not say that we see that. If we look into the cash flow in percent of operating EBITDA last 12 months, we are at close to 85%. Excellent. And if you look at also the cash flow statement, how did you see IFRS 16 playing out in those numbers? Yes. IFRS 16, we have implemented then, of course, then from January 1. You have a positive impact on EBITDA line of $13,000,000 You have a positive on depreciation of $130,000,000 So when you that's also when you adjust for that, you get the relation 1 to 1 depreciation CapEx. And that then gives you the positive impact on the operating activities. You have the negative from financial net included in the minus 43,000,000,000 you have the minus 25,000,000 and then you have the remaining part in change in interest bearing debt. And if you take it, the total impact on the cash flow statement is savory when you come down to bottom line, but it's a question where the items basically turned out. Yes, yes, yes, exactly. It should not have an impact on the cash flow. Excellent. And Patrick, I think I saw you stating that you still see an outlook for SafePoint reaching 5,000 net installs during the year. Is that correct? You still have the pipeline for that? No. We spoke to our S. Colleagues a week ago or something like that. And I think they say that there's never been as much activity ever in the SafePoint world in the U. S. As it is right now. So I cannot promise anything, of course, but we have good hopes and good plans for 5,000 SafePoints this year, yes. Excellent. And just signing for me, looking at SafePoint Europe, any progress? Yes, we're doing progress, absolutely. We're doing good. We continue on the path that we have discussed. So very good progress in France actually, Spain, Austria, Switzerland. So the Mainland Europe is doing quite well on the SafePoint side, and we continue to roll it out in all countries as we speak. Also Sweden, actually, Sweden is one of the countries where we do really good on SafePoint. So Sistembolage, 711, mention a couple of customers in the Swedish market have installed it. So we're doing really well. Excellent. Thank you very much. Thank you. We will now take our next question. Please go ahead. Your line is now open. Yes. Hi. This is Karine Elmgren from Handoff Banken. Could you maybe tell us what your market share is going to be in France with ProsugoCash? And how big you would be compared to Brink's? It's a good question. So if you take out CPOR, I think the relationship is like 47 for us and 53, 52 Brink. So they're slightly bigger if you add and actually a bit more, I would say. So maybe 46%, 54%, something like that. But if you add in CPO, okay, the game changes a bit. But still, if you look at the pure CIT CMS, they are somewhat bigger than we are. But it's the main point is that it's going to be a 2 player market. And just a year ago or so, it was a 4 player market, so both with Temis and ProsugoCash. So I think that, that's it's a good indication for the market that we can expect a more stable market for our actually, we're our 2nd biggest market. So I think it's positive. Okay. Sounds good. Then I don't know if I missed this, but could you quantify the calendar impact on the organic growth in the U. S? It's very difficult to quantify. What I said is there are 2 main things that impacted this international, I said, and in the days. And just to give you a number, everybody is asking about the number. As I said, I think that underlying, if you take out these two effects, we would be around between 4% 5% growth. Okay. But you couldn't even tell us which of these impacts were bigger? The day's impact is bigger, of course. Okay, great. Thank you. My last question would be regarding SafePoint rollout. You expect to install approximately 5,000 units this year. And then do you still think you're able to come up to 10,000 in 2021? And would that be then a linear increase, so maybe around 7.5% in 2020? Or how do you see your rollouts progressing? Yes. That would be the plan. I mean, I think that we still have 10,000 installations in our plans, in our heads. And I think that to break the 5,000 would be great, a big step. But then we need to step up big time. But I think that what I'd like to say is that there is a good momentum in the market. There are quite a number of bigger contracts out for Grab when it comes to SafePoint. So the underlying momentum in the market for Save Point or a big step change in Save Point is there. And then we just need to grab that opportunity. But all aspects of getting to 10,000 is there, yes. Okay. But do you think you need to make more investments and to scale up your organization even further like you did last year? Or do you think you have the capacity now to reach 10,000? No, I think we have the capacity. Of course, maybe slight changes when it comes to increases when it comes to installation people and so service people, but that's not the main point. I think that 2018, as I mentioned, we did acquire a number of investment into people and to IT and customer service and things like that. So that should be done already. Okay, great. Thank you. That was all for me. Thank Thank you. We will now take our next question. Your line is now open. Hi. Can you hear me now? Yes. Yes. Hi. So it's Henrik Moby from Rodea. Sorry about that. Coming back to organic growth in the U. S, to my understanding, it is related to somewhat weaker client retention rate in the quarter. And I guess that means that you've been less in renegotiating than what we've been used to. Can you please elaborate around why retention is weaker? Who are you losing to? Why are your price levels too high? Or what's behind this? I wouldn't say customer retention is lower. I think that what we have seen is the 2 effects I'm talking about. But then also, we have not seen bigger contracts and mid sized contracts coming into the portfolio. I think that's the big explanation this quarter. And that goes in bumps. And this quarter was the sort of the filling from the pipeline was not as good as previous quarters. I think that we're not in a total picture, we're not losing I mean, we all always there is a churn in the portfolio. Small churn, you lose some, you win some, but that's nothing abnormal from before. Okay, great. Thank you. Staying in the U. S, I mean, even after adjusting for IFRS 16, it seems like the margin improved significantly and surprised me positively. What should we read into that really? Are you done with strengthening the various parts that you needed, strengthening a couple of quarters ago and now ready to let leverage come through again? Or what was it in the U. S. That drove this kind of strong improvement? It's a good question. I think that it was actually a bit surprising to not surprising, but it was a positive for us that the margin was on that level. I think that what we see is that we have now first of all, we have rolled out the IT system we'll call track and trace, which we have used in many European countries, really tracking all aspects of the CIT, especially the CIT process, but also CMS process, adding a lot of possibilities to optimize routes, you can optimize the staffing, you can have more control over the supply and so on and so forth. So that's one aspect. I think that also our CEO in the U. S. Has he's been working in Spain for many years and taking a lot of that knowledge how to drive efficiency into the U. S. Operation. And there are other explanation as well. But I think that what we can expect also for the future is that we see more efficiency coming through in the U. S. Business. And what is a bit a contradiction is sometimes when you have a bit less growth, it gives you an opportunity to work more on the efficiency because you don't have to onboard a lot of new volume, new customers, and sometimes it's good to have a bit less growth to be able to improve the margins. And that's what you see also a bit in the quarter. Okay. Good answer. And one last question for me, please. On the other hand, organic growth in Europe surprised positively. And you mentioned a few markets that have been driving that, like LatAm, Spain, Turkey, Austria, etcetera. But what type of revenues were the main drivers behind that? Is it international operations, I don't know, strong portfolio development? Or is it growth in existing contracts? Is it SafePoint, CMS? I think you know what I'm getting at. What we see is we have now a very stable platform in many of these countries, which is meaning that we have very good quality. We have good staffing and so on. So we're adding new customers, new volumes, both in terms of it varies a bit by country by country. So but in some countries, it's CMS, some countries, CIT, some it's both, but also SafePoint. So all these three elements are actually contributing, but it varies a bit from country to country. But you also see that existing customers is giving more volumes to us. So you usually have a contract displayed at fifty-fifty between 2 suppliers, sixty-forty maybe. But over time, those contracts go more and more in our favor. So that's what we see. So if you see a country like Spain, for instance, growing still growing in a very healthy rate in a very mature market. And that's, of course, that the economy is doing well, but it's also that we are gaining market share, more retailers outsourcing to us and so on and so forth. So that's very positive to see. Thank you very much. Thank you. We will now take our next question. Please go ahead. Your line is now open. Yes. Hi. Daniel from ABG. Can you hear me? Yes. Excellent. So do you expect the underlying U. S. Organic growth to remain at these levels or to improve during the year already in 2019? It's we as I said, it's I think for us, it's very clear to state that nothing has changed in the U. S. When it comes to the SafePoint potential or the CMS potential, nothing has changed. And we have been growing very, very healthy over the last couple of years or quarters. 1 or 2, some quarters will be maybe a bit below what we expect. But in the long term, we should be able to grow between 5% 10%. So nothing has changed in that respect. Okay. Excellent. And then a question on France. Where are we today in terms of organic growth? Has it flattened out? Is it growing? It's flattish, I would say. We had also one some less working days in France. But if you take that out, that effect, it's flat, which I think it's a sign that the business is stabilizing. So flat, yes. Okay. That's good. And then just a final one on CapEx. As a result of some restructuring going on both in Europe and the U. S, do you expect CapEx to sales to differ from the historical average of some 7%? Or is that still a valid figure? Sorry, we have no significant changes on the CapEx. I think what we will try to do is to, of course, continue to guide you on how much will be related to leasing, so it will be easier for you to follow. But we have approximately 6% to 7% of sales as depreciation, and CapEx is not an unrealistic number. Okay. That's great. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. Please continue. All right. Thank you very much for joining the conference call, and I wish you all a very nice weekend. Thank you very much.