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Earnings Call: Q2 2020

Jul 24, 2020

Hans Ståhl
CEO, NCAB

Hey, good morning, everybody. I'm sitting in a sunny Stockholm together with Anders here, and we have the pleasure to present our Q2 results for NCAB 2020. So we'll start with the slide three, where we have the summary, and of course, we have been affected by the corona pandemic. We had a weaker order intake, but that was mainly due to pre-ordering by customers during quarter one, so then the factories we are using didn't have the full capacity due to the corona in China, and we have made successful acquisitions as it's driving the growth, and also, we have had a good result in the U.S. We have seen the light in the tunnel with our U.S. operations.

And also, the cost savings we have done has given a very strong result. On next slide, we have the events and highlights during the Q2. So April 4th , we signed with Peter Kruk, and he was announced then to succeed me as a CEO, and he will start the first of October. The April 24th , we acquired BBG in Florida, in the U.S., and that will be effective as of May 1st. We made a direct share issue conducted at the market price, the April 24th also. And we had the general assembly meeting. We had the June 5th, where we decided to not pay out any dividend. So that's the kind of events and highlights during the Q2.

And then on slide five, we are describing here the effect of the coronavirus in Q2. The situation is that what's positive is that the factories in China, or the factories we use, they are basically back to full production. And some of them are maybe 80%, but the main ones are back to 100%. But we also had the customers where they're kind of closed in the southern part of Europe and in the U.S., from basically March to the end of May. And but the customer deliveries has worked pretty well. It's despite the tough situation, so our forwarder had done a fantastic job and also together with us.

And as we said before, orders in the first quarter was placed earlier, so that dropped a little bit in the second quarter. But what's important part is what sort of activities we're doing, and we have been kind of building relations with customers via telephone, Webex, webinars, et cetera, as we haven't been able to visit them. So that's a little bit different, but I think we have developed a very good system there. And also, it's we have worked very much with our logistics, our forwarders. So we work very close to customers, so they, so we have prioritized so they get the right kind of PCBs when we're delivering, and also with factories. And thanks to our purchase power, we have been prioritized both at the factories and the forwarders.

We have also seeked state support in a few European countries, and that's a total amount of SEK 3.6 million. The cost reductions we have done has been very successful. The future, what will happen in the future? Of course, it's very difficult to predict. But we believe that there will be a weaker demand going forward. The second quarter numbers. We had a net sales of SEK 581 million, and that's +23%, which we are very happy of. Also in the U.S., if you count it in U.S. dollars, it's +20%, and also the EBITDA is +60%, and of course, that is extremely good. Also on the EBITDA margin, it's a +2.4 % units .

Then we have made some acquisitions, so I will let Anders talk about the acquisitions we have made.

Anders Forsén
CFO, NCAB

Okay, thank you, Hans. What we have done in first and second quarter is two major acquisitions for us, which is very great. The first one was done in the mid of March, Flatfield in the Netherlands. They have always been a big competitor to us, so we have been looking at them for a long time. I mean, they are a leading PCB supplier in Benelux area, and also have a lot of customers in Germany. Of course, Benelux was sort of a white spot for us. This was really perfect match, and we would also like to grow more in the German market. They had a revenue of roughly SEK 300 million last year, and EBITDA of about 25 million.

They are 50 people, 15 works in China, and they have already been integrated to our Chinese factory management team, and the rest are working mainly in Netherlands. And we buy the company for about EBITDA multiple of seven, and it was consolidated from March 1st. And actually, we did the acquisition the last day Netherlands was open. Afterward, it was in a lockdown, so it was a bit strange. But we have been able to handle the integration rather well. We have had a lot of meetings over Webex and Zoom, et c., and I think we have got a good grip on the company anyway, and we are now planning for introducing our IT system, our way of working, et c.

We have also tried to merge all the supplier agreements in China to get the best benefit from from purchase price and purchase conditions, et c., and also try to implement our way of working, and I think so far it goes very, very well, and we do have a very positive reaction from the customers in Netherlands, but of course, we are longing to meet them face to face again. The second acquisition was done in April 24th in U.S.A., in Bare Board Group, also a big competitor to us in the U.S.. They also have a few customers in Canada, which of course is interesting for us, and what is very interesting is that the Bare Board Group had the main sourcing from Taiwan, and as you may know, that there are no tariffs from Taiwan to China, so it's all U.S.A..

So it's very good to have a different option for our customers to choose to buy from China or Taiwan, so that is also positive. BBG had a revenue last year of roughly SEK 280 million , and a little bit lower EBITDA. They are 30 million- 30 people, where all 10 people are working in Taiwan, that's the factory management team, as we have. And they are consolidated from May 1st, and also here, we paid roughly a multiple of seven. The integration process has started. We are not coming as far as in Netherlands, but it goes rather well, actually. But also here, I mean, we cannot travel, not either our people in U.S.A. are allowed to travel to Florida, so we have to do everything over phone and Webex.

But it works rather good, actually, and we have been able to implement our China pricing to the customers, et c., for BBG as well. So we see some benefit there. And together, of course, we will double our size in U.S.A., so this is really important for us, so we will be a big player in U.S.. Then going back to some numbers for second quarter in the different segments. Nordic, we had a flat growth, so it's about the same revenue as last year. Still continue to have a good EBITDA margin of close to 15%. We have not sought for any state contribution in all the countries. Europe, we saw a growth of 26%, due to acquisition.

Excluding them, it was down 14%, mainly due to Southern Europe and one customer in the transport sector in U.K., but positive is that the EBITDA margin is increasing. In U.S., as North America, Hans said, we have more or less doubled the revenue, and the good part is to see that even if we exclude the acquisition of BBG and Altus, which we did in November, we see a growth of 9% in our normal business. The transformation phase we have been in before, going from some customers with high volume, low tech, has been over, and we see that we have growth again, which is very positive. We also see a growing EBITDA margin, so that is a very good sign.

I think we also see some positive signs from the Altus integration. East down 2%, mainly due to Russia, who was in a sort of lockdown in April. And then we had a very good EBITDA margin, but here we have some positive currency program exchange profits in second quarter. We had some negative in first quarter, now positive now. So I would say this is a little bit too high, but anyway, it's good margin. Next slide. It's good to see that we continue to grow. And EBITDA gross margin is going down a little bit, but that's mainly due to the acquisitions, especially Bare Board Group had much lower gross margin than our operation. If we should have compared comparable units, we would maybe into 31.9%.

We have actually increased the EBITDA margin for the comparable units, but together with the new acquired companies, it's a bit, it's a bit lower. Next slide, growth. As I said, the growth is coming from our acquisitions. Of course, we are proud to present 23% growth in the quarter. But anyway, we are doing 3% down if you compare comparable units, and we think that's very good despite the situation. And we have had a very strong growth in Germany, but among other countries. As we discussed, order intake only up 8% and down 15% for comparable units. But we had a very strong order intake in first quarter, and we see the consequences of that in second quarter.

So I mean, normally, we can see that the first quarter's order is normally invoiced the second quarter, but since we got so much orders for customers who like to secure deliveries due to the close down in China, this will be transferred in the third quarter. So anyway, if you look at the first half year, I think we are booked to bill one to zero, which is positive. So we are not that afraid of that low order intake in second quarter. It is a, it's a clear sign from the first quarter strong order intake. Next page, then. EBITDA had a very strong EBITDA. If we take away the transaction costs for Bare Board Group, we are close to SEK 60 million or over 10% EBITDA margin.

So we are very proud of that, and we have been very successful to sort of save cost in situation. We have not recruited as planned before. Of course, no travel activities, no exhibitions, and so on. We also have this SEK 3.6 million as contribution from some state support in mainly Spain, France, Italy, and U.K.. Of course, this cost is a little bit lower than normal, so when everything opens up, we will expect to start doing travel activities and sales activities to be able to grow in the future. But of course, we're very happy that we can control the cost in such a good way and make a good profit. Then going back to the segments, Nordic, as I said, they were flat revenue. Continued good EBITDA margin.

We went up to SEK 20 million in EBITDA. Still strong gross margin. Order intake decreased 14%, but here it's the same. We had very strong order intake first quarter, so we are still a very good level for the future. Let's say that the most countries are very stable. We saw a little bit of a growth in Denmark, otherwise it was about the same as last year. So the Nordic continues to deliver, which is good. If we then go into Europe, we saw an increase of 26% in revenue. Of course, that is due to the Flatfield acquisition. If we take away that, it is 14% down.

We have had some weak markets at the moment in Southern Europe, but it's mainly one customer in the U.K., in the transport sector, which affects the lower revenue. Of course, they'll be back at some stage during the end of the year. They will expect that they will come back to a little bit better level. We also can see a very positive development in Germany, which is really good, and we got a lot of people say, med tech projects in Germany, which is fantastic. Germany is a huge market, and it's really good to see that they're able to grow during this times. Also good to see that we managed to increase the EBITDA margin despite the situation. Almost all of the state contribution we got is in sector Europe. Mm-hmm.

Coming back to U.S.A., North America, net sales almost doubled to SEK 125 million. That's of course connected to the acquisition of Bare Board Group and the acquisition we did of Altus in November. But anyway, if we exclude that and exclude the tariffs that now are included in net sales, we had a growth of 9%, which we're really proud of. This shows that the work we have done in changing the business in US has come through, and we see a result of that is very, very positive. We also have seen an improved profitability in U.S. the last quarters, so we ended up at about 8.1% this quarter. Order intake also increased a little bit below with the revenue, but we are still in good shape.

Of course, the big question mark is little bit for the future, what will happen if U.S.A. close down more and more? There are some signs or risks that the market will close down, but still we can see our customers seems to be open. So, but anyway, it's been uncertainty in the U.S. market right now. Last segment, East. We had roughly the same revenue as last year, a small decrease, and that was connected to Russia, which had a big drop in April, but they recovered very quickly in May and June to get back to normal levels. EBITDA increased. A big part of this positive effect in the second quarter is that the ruble increased in value again, and that means that we got the positive impact when recalculating trade receivables and liabilities.

We had a negative impact first quarter and a positive one in the second quarter, so the average is still on a good level for East, I would say. We also saw lower order intake. It was mainly from Russia in April, but I think we seem to be back on rather normal levels last two months. And then some KPIs: return on equity goes down, but of course that is connected to the share issue we did in April of SEK 287 million, which also means that we are back on zero net debt, so we have a very, very strong balance sheet, which is very positive. We have an equity ratio of 43%.

And as you can see, working capital is still roughly about 8% of our last 12 months revenue, which is very good. The company we bought in Netherlands, they have a little bit more inventory than say the normal, but Bare Board Group was the opposite. Almost no inventory, and the customers paying very, very early. So I think they even out in a way. So still we are about 9% of revenue in working capital, which is very positive. And also due to the share issue and the increased bank loans, we do have a very healthy cash position and a lot of available cash. So we are possibilities for taking chances in the future, good chances arises. Of course, the financial targets, we keep them as the same.

We will, of course, not meet the growth of 8% this year due to the corona situation, but over time, we still believe that 8% is, before acquisitions, is reachable. And we also say that we will keep the average adjusted EBITDA of 8%. And probably for the future, if we would like to invest for growth, we also need to add on some costs in the coming quarters. And I think when everything goes back to normal again, we will estimate to have a dividend of at least 50% of net profit. So the targets are still there. Going forward, the future for NCAB, it is actually rather simple, so we have explained it in four squares here, and the first one is, of course, increased market share in Europe, U.S.A., and East.

As of today, we have about a market share in these markets of 1%, which is basically nothing. So there is such a big potential in growing in on these markets. Also, secondly, deeper collaboration with existing customers. I mean, the market share we have with existing customers is also rather low, so we have so much more to do with existing customers to gain more growth and also expand geographically. Of course, there are many countries where we are not present but also what we are doing now is that we expand within the countries, like in the U.S., we are setting up offices around the country. Also in Germany, we are setting up more offices, so we are closer to the customers because that is an important factor to understand the customer's needs.

And also the last one, but maybe one of the most important ones, we see a possibility in consolidating the market, because there are quite many smaller traders that are struggling now, especially when the Chinese factories are growing and becoming bigger and bigger, and the smaller ones are disappearing. So one need to be big to get these, to be attractive for the big factories. So that's a fantastic potential there. So I just also want to say that I'm kind of on a personal level, this is my kind of last report as a CEO for NCAB, which is, of course, I feel it, it's a bit strange, but I still, I will continue as working in the board of directors.

I would like to kind of express my gratitude to our fantastic, dedicated employees, and also the board of directors, and as well for the trust shown by you all shareholders, that has made it possible for us to get a flying start to become a public company. Also my replacement, Peter, he will begin in October, so he will present the next quarterly result. That next quarterly result will be presented on November 10, 2020. With that, we are ready for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you do wish to ask a question, please press zero-one on your telephone keypad now. If you wish to withdraw a question, you may do so by pressing zero-two to cancel. And our first question comes from the line of Robert Redin from Carnegie. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Robert Redin
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Yeah, hi. Congrats, a great result. I have a couple of questions. Maybe I could take them one by one. First one is on the order, so the intake and order book. I mean, order intake was obviously lower than in Q1. Can you say something about the order book, if it's sort of shorter or longer than normal? And maybe also for the intake in Q with some kind of guide for sales in Q3 or not really? Try to read.

Anders Forsén
CFO, NCAB

Yeah, I would say that the order book is still longer than normal. And I mean, typically, we normally see that orders one quarter will be revenue the next quarter. That is sort of little bit of the standard. And the order for Q1 was much higher than the revenue for second quarter, meaning that we still have a lot of orders left to be delivered during third and fourth quarter. So yes, I think the situation in China in first quarter, when they had the factory lockdowns, a lot of customers placed order with much longer lead time to make sure that they have the deliveries on time.

Yes, we are not that worried about the low order intake in second quarter because it is a little bit logical to the strong order in first quarter. Then, of course, on specific markets, you can say that in Southern Europe, it has been lower, and that has meant it's been lower demand. But in general, I think we are still in a rather good shape from order point of view.

Robert Redin
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. That sounds more positive maybe than what one could think looking at the numbers, but okay, and the margins, of course, they were very impressive in the quarters. I guess on EBITDA margin level, were the acquisitions dilutive in Q2? If it was the underlying business up more year-over-year in margins wise?

Anders Forsén
CFO, NCAB

Yes, it was. Bare Board Group was below average in EBITDA margin for the group. Flatfield was also a little bit below, was closer to the average for the group, but we, we had a strong development for the comparable units. It had increased gross margin, and also, of course, a lot of cost saving activities. So I mean, we, we have not add on new recruitments, as planned, and we also no travel costs and no activities. But you have to see this as a one-time quarter in some way, because this is not sustainable long term. We, we need to have more actions to get great growth in the future.

Robert Redin
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Right, right, right. And government support, I calculate, 60 basis points, sort of margin health. That's not much. But was there any sort of underlying or sustainable cost savings in the quarter or

Anders Forsén
CFO, NCAB

I mean, our intention is, of course, when things get more like normal, then we're gonna push the button and start to grow. That's of course then we need to hire people, we need to take part, we need to travel, et c. It's yes, parts of it, but the majority of the costs will actually hopefully come back, and that is a part of the strategy to grow it. I also think that we have learned to do business in a more efficient way, maybe. I mean, a lot of Webex meetings or Zoom meetings, et cetera, so probably we can do more activities online in the future. Hopefully we have learned to be more cost effective and do the business in a different way.

But we also need to meet our customers, so maybe we can partly use this new way of taking customer contacts in the future.

Robert Redin
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. Right. Okay. And each had the 16.8% margin quarter, you had that ruble effect that I calculated to 1.8%. So it was 18% adjusted for that. So it's still sort of highest on record. Is that sustainable or was it just an extraordinary quarter down the line?

Anders Forsén
CFO, NCAB

It's difficult to say, but I think we have been able to increase the margin both in Russia and in China, and China is focusing more and more on the high tech projects. We are getting into some of this 5G projects, not the 5G itself, but for test equipment, et cetera, and when we are going into the high tech, we are able to take better payments and better margins, so difficult to guess what is normal level, but it's not 60%, of course, it's below that, but it's well above 10%.

Robert Redin
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Okay, that sounds good. So, finally, on those net financials that were high in the quarter and the FX impact, I think you've seen that in several companies. Is it basically the SEK strengthening, or maybe pound weakening? And are you going to realize those? Because I guess they're non-cash in the quarter, but could they be cash later?

Anders Forsén
CFO, NCAB

Oh, sorry, one more time. I missed that question.

Robert Redin
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Did those higher than expected net financials and the FX impact-

Anders Forsén
CFO, NCAB

Mm-hmm.

Robert Redin
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Are those going to be a cash cost, or can you say something more about those?

Anders Forsén
CFO, NCAB

Yeah, probably. I think that. What is that? I mean, our business is very much built on U.S. dollar. We are buying everything in U.S. dollar, and we are invoicing most of the customers in U.S. dollar. And that also means that we will have time to time a lot of excess cash in U.S. dollar. And of course, in this quarter, when the U.S. dollar went down, that was negative for us. So, hopefully, that was a little bit of a one time. We are trying to minimize the exposure more and more in the future, but in this quarter, we had too much excess U.S. dollar cash on the accounts, which had a negative impact.

Robert Redin
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. Okay. Right. So you're FX trading. Okay. Perfect.

Anders Forsén
CFO, NCAB

That, that's not our business, really. But, of course, when we have these big changes, it might happen. So, I mean, normally, since we do buy and sell in U.S. dollar, we try to keep that on a stable level, and we have normal hedging in the transactions. But of course, if we do have excess cash in U.S. dollar and this happens, then we have a negative impact. We had a little bit of positive impact in the first quarter of the same reason.

Robert Redin
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. Right. Right. Okay, those were all of my questions. And of course, I have to say thanks to Hans. It's been a pleasure covering the stock when you've been at the helm from the IPO and onwards, and I talk to you later also, but thanks.

Anders Forsén
CFO, NCAB

Thank you.

Thank you.

Gunilla Öhman
Investor Relations Manager, NCAB

Gunilla here.

Hans Ståhl
CEO, NCAB

Hi.

Gunilla Öhman
Investor Relations Manager, NCAB

I have a question from one on my email, from Anders Rudolfsson of DNB, and he says congratulations to a very good report. Great job. And he has three questions. Firstly, margin is very strong. Is this a new level, or how should we think there?

Hans Ståhl
CEO, NCAB

Yeah, it is, again, it's very difficult to say, but of course, that is what we're aiming. But still, it is our focus: 8%, what we have kind of told the market. And it's also difficult again to say, because when we do push to grow, well, one has to consider that this is... We are not growing right now organically. So when we start to grow for the future, we need to spend some more money. So it's, I think the 8% is a good target. I don't know if you want to add something on this?

Gunilla Öhman
Investor Relations Manager, NCAB

Okay. And his second question is: How is the second half year historically versus the first half year regarding demand?

Anders Forsén
CFO, NCAB

I think that revenue-wise, we are roughly the same or a little bit weaker. Normally, we do have a little bit weaker revenue in beginning of third quarter and also in December. So the half years are revenue-wise, pretty much the same, but maybe a little bit negative trend for second half of the year, normally. But they are still very close to revenue-wise.

Gunilla Öhman
Investor Relations Manager, NCAB

His third and last question is: Any of your competitors that have problems and could be an acquisition target?

Anders Forsén
CFO, NCAB

Absolutely. Yeah, but of course, we are absolutely looking for more acquisitions. I would say, the thing is now that we need to be able to go out to travel again, to meet the people. We have a pipeline of potential targets, and we have maybe initiated in the very early stage, some discussions, but of course, we need to be able to travel and meet to be able to do something. But there are opportunities in the market, absolutely.

Operator

Thank you, and as there are no further questions at this time, I will hand it back to our speakers for the final comments. Please go ahead.

Hans Ståhl
CEO, NCAB

Mm-hmm. Thank you very much for listening. And again, we are very proud of the result for-

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