Orrön Energy AB (publ) (STO:ORRON)
Sweden flag Sweden · Delayed Price · Currency is SEK
9.76
-0.42 (-4.13%)
May 19, 2026, 12:28 PM CET
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: Q1 2022

Apr 27, 2022

Ed Westropp
VP of Investor Relations and Communications, Lundin Energy

Thank you very much, Nas. Welcome everyone. Good afternoon or good morning. Welcome to the Lundin Energy Q1 2022 results. We'll follow the usual form. Nick will take us through the highlights and operations, and then Teitur will follow on with the financials. Nick will round it off at the end with a little summary. For the Q&A, again, we'll follow the usual form. We'll take questions from the line first, and then I'll host any that we get through the web. Thanks very much for joining, and I'll hand over to Nick.

Nick Walker
President and CEO, Lundin Energy

Well, thank you, Ed, and good afternoon or good morning if you're joining us from North America. Welcome to our first quarter 2022 results discussion, which will likely be our last before completion of the Aker BP transaction. As usual, I'll cover off the operations update, and then I'll also talk through the Aker BP deal status. Teitur will walk us through the Q1 financials. Of course, we'll open up for your questions. First of all, the key highlights for the quarter. I'm really pleased to report our business continued to deliver on all fronts with strong production and financial results. This is underpinned by our world-class assets and, of course, strong oil and gas prices that we're experiencing.

You can see that production came in at 191,000 BOE/d for the quarter, which was towards the top of our guidance range. Our key projects are all on track. The Johan Sverdrup phase II topsides were successfully installed on schedule, and we're on target for first oil in Q4 this year. We have a pipeline of five new projects, including the large Wisting development heading towards project sanction by the end of the year. Our high-quality cash generative business delivered strong financial results. With continued industry-leading operating costs you can see here at $3.7 per barrel, which is in line with our guidance.

We generated record quarterly revenue of almost $2 billion in the quarter, which yielded free cash flow for the quarter of $822 million, resulting in us further deleveraging the business with net debt reduced to $2.1 billion at the end of the quarter. The AGM improved. The quarterly dividend increased by 25% to $0.5625 per share, payable until completion of the Aker BP transaction. We also continued to deliver on our decarbonization plan. Electrification of Edvard Grieg is on track for completion in the Q4 of this year. The MLK wind farm in Finland is now fully online. We continue with top-quartile ESG ratings. I wish to remind you, if we continued the business as is, the company would be carbon neutral from operational emissions by the end of this year.

On the combination of Lundin Energy's E&P business with Aker BP, we're on track for completion of the transaction on the 30th of June, 2022, which I'll discuss in a moment. In summary, we had an excellent start to 2022, and all of our key business priorities are on track. I'll now cover some of the details supporting this performance. Firstly, looking at production. Our world-class assets keep on outperforming, delivered production of 191,000 BOE per day in Q1, which was towards the top of the guidance range. You can see that's now 27 quarters running that we've met or exceeded guidance. At the end of the reporting period, Edvard Grieg experienced a failure of some electrical systems, resulting in an outage for almost four weeks.

Production has now partially restarted at about 75% levels and will ramp up to full rates during May. We took the opportunity to accelerate the Edvard Grieg planned shutdown works, which were originally scheduled in May to coincide with this temporary outage, which significantly reduces the impact. We now only have a few days of planned outage at Edvard Grieg in May to coincide with the Sture terminal plant shutdown. With the good performance in Q1, the outlook for the business and our general conservatism around our estimates, the full year production estimate remains at or above the midpoint of our guidance range, which is unchanged at 180,000-200,000 BOEs today. Now turning to our world-class assets, which underpin our business.

Johan Sverdrup continues to perform at an extremely high level, with phase I operating very stably at 535,000 barrels of oil per day gross, with extremely high production efficiency. You can see stellar operating metrics, operating costs of just over $2 per barrel, and exceptionally low carbon emissions, more than 100 x better than the world average. We continue to see excellent reservoir performance, which we believe will lead to increased reserves and plateau extension, and this is being worked in the license partnership. The photo here shows how Johan Sverdrup looks today with the newly installed phase II processing platform at the field center. To give a sense of scale of the five bridge-linked platforms, the whole facility stretches over 1 kilometer end to end.

When phase II comes online, this will lift the full field capacity level to over 755,000 barrels of oil per day. To put that in context, it's about 1/3 of Norway's total production. Looking now at phase II of Johan Sverdrup. The P2 topsides were successfully installed on schedule, and we're now in the final commissioning phase. Drilling of the subsea wells has also commenced. Critical activities for first oil are approximately 95% complete. The project is firmly on track for first oil in the fourth quarter of this year. There's a real opportunity to see earlier production if the project continues to see progress ahead of expectations. Costs are unchanged from the PDO, and I expect these to reduce as unused contingency is released through the remainder of the project.

In summary, Johan Sverdrup continues to deliver above expectations and everything is on track with phase II. In the greater Edvard Grieg area, we're delivering on the upsides that will keep the facilities full in the long term. At Edvard Grieg, the power from shore project is on track for completion in Q4 this year, at which point we can expect similar levels of emissions performance to Johan Sverdrup. This project is a key element of our decarbonization plan, and we're planning for another infill well program. Having completed the Solveig phase I and Rolvsnes EWT tieback projects last year with good success, we're now embarking on a future program of three further tieback projects with the aim of achieving project sanctions by the end of 2022.

There's significant further upside in the area and I expect to see exploration and appraisal drilling here for many years to come. There's an adage that the big fields get bigger, and Edvard Grieg continues to live up to this. With reserves currently standing at over 2 x the original PDO and with potential further upsides. Performance from the three infill wells drilled and completed in 2021 are ahead of expectations. A future infill well program is being planned for spud in mid-2023. You can see some of the potential locations shown on this slide. To help mature the program, we're currently acquiring a further 4D seismic survey over the field, a technology that's been extremely successful to date in understanding the movements of fluids in the reservoir will help de-risk the opportunities for infill drilling.

We've already extended the plateau at the Edvard Grieg area by five years from the original PDO to end 2023, and our aim is to keep the facilities full in the long term. We're on track to bring forward the Solveig phase II, Rolvsnes full field and Lille Prinsen tieback projects for sanction at the end of this year to take advantage of the temporary tax incentives. Both the Rolvsnes and Lille Prinsen projects will further progress our understanding and exploitation of the basement reservoir potential in the area, where we see significant opportunity of up to 300 million barrels gross. These projects will add high-margin barrels and contribute to extending the plateau production at the Edvard Grieg facility.

Now turning to the Alvheim area, which has a track record of continually growing reserves and creating value, and we continue to progress multiple opportunities in the area. With three new projects being progressed, the Frosk and Kobra East, Gecko projects are now in the execution phase. The concept studies are ongoing at the Trell and Trine development with the aim to submit a PDO in the middle of the year. All these projects are being progressed under the temporary tax regime and have great economics with breakevens within the range of $25-$30 a barrel. Together, we'll add 70 million barrels of gross reserves and deliver gross peak production of up to 45,000 barrels a day.

It's really encouraging that we see these projects moving forward and continue to find opportunities and to create value here, and I think there's still more to come. Last year, we increased our interest in the large Wisting oil development to 35%, creating the next production core area for the business. Wisting is a high-quality 500 million barrel project with strong economics. The development concept is now being finalized and the PDO submission is planned and on schedule for the end of this year. As this development will be powered from shore, the project is fully aligned with our decarbonization aspirations. We also see significant exploration upside close to Wisting, with the surrounding acreage estimated to hold 500 million barrels of unrisked prospective resources. This is a high-quality project and supports the long-term production outlook for our business.

We continue to create future value. We have a pipeline of projects with three in the execution phase, five heading towards sanction this year, together maturing around 240 million barrels of net resources. We continue to explore. We've got five wells remaining to be drilled in 2022, targeting around 140 million barrels net prospective resources. With the start of Johan Sverdrup phase II later this year, the business will consistently deliver over 200,000 BOEs per day and quite possibly up to 250. I believe our world-class assets can continue to yield further value creation opportunities. I now want to focus on the Aker BP combination and recap on the basis for the deal.

Lundin Energy has a track record of creating value for shareholders for over 20 years, as you can see from this slide. Since the company's inception in 2001, the share price has grown from SEK 3 per share to around SEK 400 per share today. While along the way, also distributing $2.5 billion to shareholders through spin-outs and dividends, representing an exceptional 28% compound annual average return to shareholders every year for 20 years. To prosper through the energy transition, we need to build greater scale, as well as retaining focus and being low cost and low carbon, which led to the process we ran in early last year, resulting in a transaction to combine Lundin Energy's E&P business with Aker BP. In Lundin Energy, we leave behind the renewables business, which is well-positioned for growth.

The combination of Aker BP and Lundin Energy's E&P business is a tremendous deal, drawing on the best of both companies to make something even bigger and better, creating a Norwegian pure-play E&P company of scale, with production growth into the next decade, a complementary portfolio of industry-leading low-cost and low-carbon emissions assets, which is positioned to be successful through the energy transition. The combined company will be Europe's leading independent E&P company, with a market capitalization of about $25 billion. This will be a business that's financially stronger through the cycle and is able to deliver sustainable and growing shareholder returns into the next decade. I believe this is a tremendous deal, for shareholders, where the value of the combined business is greater than the component parts.

For the Lundin Energy shareholders, you can see on this slide that what this delivers, firstly, a significant upfront cash consideration of approximately SEK 73 per share, which is just under 20% of the value of the company. Secondly, the opportunity to be a shareholder in the leading European E&P company, receiving approximately 0.951 shares in Aker BP for every Lundin share. Thirdly, a retained interest in a standalone renewable business that's set for growth. Overall, the existing Lundin Energy shareholders will own 43% of the combined company, and the Lundin family will remain a key investor with around 14%. In terms of process to approve the combination, the deal has now been approved by the shareholders of both companies.

Customary government approvals are required, which we believe will be obtained, and we expect closing of the transaction on the 30th of June this year. This is what the combined company looks like. It will have reserves and resources of 2.8 billion BOE, supporting production growth from current levels of around 400,000 BOEs per day to over 525,000 BOEs per day in 2028. This is being delivered at industry-leading low operating costs, less than $7 per barrel, and thus yielding high margin barrels. The combined business will continue with industry-leading low carbon emissions of around one quarter of industry average, providing the combined entity the opportunity to continue a progressive and market-leading decarbonization strategy, where the aspiration of Aker BP is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030.

The business has the financial strength and cash flow profile to pay a growing dividend, growing a sustainable dividend into the next decade. Aker BP has guided a 14% increase in dividend for 2021, meaning the combined group will pay an annual dividend of $1.9 per share post-deal completion and on a quarterly basis, and growing thereafter by at least 5% per annum, where the oil price is above $40. This will be a world-class company by any measure, and I'm convinced that the combination with Aker BP is a win-win outcome for both sets of shareholders. For the remaining Lundin Energy business, this is a new renewable energy company that is a platform for growth.

The business comes out of the gate in a strong position with three high-quality renewables assets in the Nordics, which when fully built out, will produce around 600 GWh per annum, enough to power around 150,000 homes. The business will be fully funded with cash to build out the committed projects and will be generating free cash flow from the end of 2023. Being initially debt-free, the business will have the capacity to raise capital for growth and acquisitions. The company will retain key members of Lundin Energy's board of directors and management team with knowledge of the current asset base and a proven track record of building public companies and creating shareholder value.

It's intended that on completion of the Aker BP transaction, that Dan Fitzgerald, our Chief Operating Officer, will become the CEO of Lundin Energy Renewables, who I believe will do a fantastic job. The company will also remain listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm Exchange. We've seen through building our existing renewables portfolio that the market is fragmented and that there's a real opportunity to create value in this space. The long-term vision is to grow Lundin Energy Renewables into an industry-leading business with scale and sufficient cash flow to be able to provide progressive shareholder returns. I believe with our entrepreneurial spirit and focus on value creation, there's a tremendous opportunity to deliver on this objective. We'll announce in mid-May more details on the governance framework for this new business.

That wraps up the operational update and an overview of the transaction. I'm now gonna hand over to Teitur, who will take us through the financials for Q1.

Teitur Poulsen
CFO, Lundin Energy

Okay. Thanks very much, Nick, and good afternoon or good morning, everybody. We start off with some of the key highlights for the first quarter in terms of financial performance. As you can see on here, it's yet again a quarter where some of our key financial metrics are setting new records. As you will have seen in our report, we continue to split our reporting into continuing operations, which is essentially the renewable business, and then the discontinued operations, which is the E&P business. In the slides we're gonna show here, we are effectively combining those two to report on a fully consolidated basis as we always have done in the past.

Starting off with production and sales, Nick took you through the production numbers of 191,000 BOE per day for the quarter. We were overlifted yet again in the quarter. This is the third consecutive quarter we are overlifted. The financials are driven by sales, and there we lifted 201,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the quarter. We'll come back on the price realization, but the price realization has been very strong, $104 a barrel for the oil and close to $200 a barrel for the gas in BOE terms. Operating costs continue to be industry-leading low, and $3.71 is in line with our guidance, despite seeing certain pressures on electricity and CO2 costs.

In the bigger context of the OpEx, we still remain within guidance. Investment levels came in just under $170 million for the quarter, and that's split on $120 million in CapEx and $48 million on E&A spend. Then we had some renewable investments of $23 million in addition. With the stronger macro background we have at the moment, that's obviously generating significant cash flow for the business. The EBITDA number just below $1.9 billion for the quarter, which is our new record for the company. Also CFFO on the cash flow statement over $1 billion generated and with free cash flow at $822 million. Extremely strong cash generation.

That led to, as Nick said, deleveraging the balance sheet still further. Our net debt position at quarter end just above $2 billion and leaving the net debt to EBITDA ratio at less than half time. If we then move on to the next slide and look at some of the key metrics that we report against. In the top right, you see the sales volumes we had in the quarter, 18 million barrels BOE sold during the quarter, which is slightly down on the same quarter last year and also on the previous quarter. Whereas price realizations obviously continue to improve, and compared to same quarter last year, 82% up on price realization, $109 a barrel oil equivalent.

Even against Q4, which was a very strong price realization in its own right, we are still up 30% against the previous quarter. That generated revenue for Q1 at $1.97 billion. Generating, as I said, an EBITDA of just below $1.9 billion, which is up 86% on the same period last year. CFFO just over $1 billion. During the quarter, we paid cash taxes of $509 million. With the increasing oil price, we also had a significant working capital build of $322 million. With those two items included, we generated CFFO of, as I said, over $1 billion from EBITDA of $1.9 billion.

We also had strong free cash flow generation. We had cash flows from investments of $187 million, which is in line with our full year guidance, over the period. The quarterly costs we have had here is roughly one quarter of the guidance both on development costs and E&A. As I said, just below $190 million of investments. That has then given us an adjusted net profit of just below $400 million. We should be mindful of the fact that we are not charging depletion through the income statement from the date of announcing the deal with Aker BP.

This is under IFRS 5 accounting rules, and that's obviously gonna improve the adjusted net results given that the depletion charge is one of our highest cost items going through the income statement. I mentioned strong price realization. If you look on the chart to the left to start off with, you can see for the barrels we sold, we realized $104 a barrel of the sold volume. But with the higher gas prices, the blended BOE price we achieved was $109 a barrel. You can also see at the bottom of this chart that the proportion of gas sales to oil sales is, not surprisingly, increasing.

In Q1, we had 86% of the revenue was oil and 14% was gas related. On the chart to the right here, you see the makeup of our realized oil price. The Dated Brent for the quarter was averaging $102 a barrel. Due to timing effects. In other words, when we lifted our cargoes during the quarter, we had another benefit equating to $2.4 a barrel. Given that after each lifting, we are pricing that cargo to five subsequent days, and the timing of those lifting played well into how the oil price behaved during the quarter. Then we had a slight discount on the physical sales of $0.50.

That's also significantly lower than if you look on the average over the previous three quarters. It was $1.50 discount. We have a $1/barrel lower discount than we have seen over recent quarters. That then led to $104/barrel realized price on all the cargoes we lifted. Looking then briefly on gas, we realized a price of $194 barrel per BOE. The pricing mechanism is the same as in previous quarters, where we are selling everything day ahead. We are fully exposed to the spot gas price market, both in the U.K. and on continental Europe in relation to the Johan Sverdrup gas volume that we are selling.

Looking at operating costs, as I said, the unit costs for the quarter $3.72 with absolute costs for the quarter at $69 million. You can see in the light blue bars at the bottom here how the impact has come through in our OpEx costs on electricity and CO2 costs. If you look compared to Q1 last year, electricity prices, which is what's powering Johan Sverdrup facilities, are up with close to 230% compared to Q1 last year. Also CO2 taxes are up 70%, which is why you see that light blue increasing fairly materially over that period.

Nevertheless, in the context of generating $1.9 billion of EBITDA, to have an operating cost of below $70 million, it's very well managed through our operations team in order to keep these costs under control, and therefore generating yet another strong EBITDA margin of 96% for Q1. Looking at tax on the income statement, the reported tax rate was 75%, which is lower than what it normally would have been. That relates to some interest rate swap gains we had on some interest rate hedges, which are all non-cash. Because they're deemed to be ineffective following the Aker BP deal, they're being fully charged to the income statement, which therefore reduced the effective tax rate.

If we strip out the impact from that, plus the FX loss that we had of $36 million, then our operational tax rate is more or less bang on the Norwegian marginal tax rate of 78%, which is also what you would expect to see in terms of effective tax rate when you strip out certain financial items. At the bottom of this slide, you see the chart which shows the actual cash tax payments that we have to make. In Q1, as I said earlier, we paid $509 million in cash taxes in Norway.

Depending on FX, but we are paying two further installments in Q2 this year of NOK 4.5 billion per installment, so NOK 9 billion in total. Based on the quarter end FX rate to the NOK, that should come in at just above another $1 billion of cash tax installments in Q2, which still relates to the 2021 tax liability that we have on the balance sheet. In Q4 this year, we will make the final tax installment to fully settle the 2021 tax bill, and that's estimated currently to be another $44 million to be paid.

If you look at the balance sheet for the discontinued operations, we at the moment have a book tax liability of $2.4 billion as of end of Q1, and that therefore relates to what remains to be left of 2021 tax liability, plus the tax we have accrued for the first quarter this year. Looking at the actual cash generation, we mentioned this upfront, but very, very strong cash generation with the high gas and oil prices we have realized. Before allowing for working capital movements, we generated $1.33 billion of cash flow from operations after tax. As I said, with an increasing oil price, the receivables we're building and actually with reducing investment levels, our payables are also reducing.

Combined, that led to a working capital movement of $322 million. Therefore, we reported our CFFO to the cash flow statement of just over a billion dollars. As I mentioned, cash flows from investing activities just below $190 million, and that's how we derive our free cash flow number before dividend payments of $822 million. Dividends paid, relating to the 2020 dividend declared, which was paid in early January this year, of $128 million. That fully settled the 2020 declared dividend.

That therefore led to yet again hefty debt reductions as we have spoken about, net repayment of debt during the quarter of $540 million, leaving a cash build of $145 million. In terms of the absolute debt we report at the end of Q1, just below $2.7 billion of gross debt outstanding, $2 billion in bonds and just under $700 million in term loans and a small drawing of the revolving credit facility. We had a cash of just below $600 million, so that therefore left a net debt of $2.1 billion. You can see on the extreme right of this slide that we continue to have extremely good liquidity within the business.

In addition to the $600 million in cash, we have an undrawn RCF of $1.4 billion. All in, we have $2 billion of available liquidity to draw upon. In the bottom left here, you see the impact from the transaction with Aker BP, where the agreement is that the renewable business from the word go will retain $130 million of cash. When you look at our balance sheet under the continued operation, you will see we record a net cash position of $130 million. You will then see from the discontinued operations balance sheet that we, in addition to that, also have $468 million sitting within the E&P business.

Combined, those two items make up around about $600 million in cash for the group in total. Quickly on dividend, the AGM at the end of March approved a 25% dividend increase, as Nick mentioned, to $2.25. Already in 1st of April, we went ex-dividend on the first quarterly installment of that new dividend. On 7th of April, you should have received the equivalent of $0.5625 per share in dividend payment. Assuming that the deal with Aker BP closes on thirtieth of June, which is the plan, then that would have been the last dividend distributed by Lundin Energy AB.

The next dividend you will receive will be through your Aker BP shareholding and the Aker BP dividend distribution will then occur during the third quarter of this year. Just a quick housekeeping slide on our guidance. Effectively, everything remains unchanged in relation to what we guided at the CMD earlier this year. You see all the numbers here confirming guidance is unchanged. Before I hand back to Nick, I thought it would be interesting just to have a look back in time, given that this is our last quarterly financial presentation to market.

What we've done here is look at cumulative performance since inception of the company back in 2001, and looked at some of the key financial drivers for the business over that period. You can see here on the production front, we have produced over 400 million barrels BOE over that period. Over recent years, obviously all of that's come from the Norway business. If you look back in time, we've also had production out of Southeast Asia, out of Africa, out of South America even, and also from various places in Europe. That production has cumulatively generated EBITDA of over $22 billion over this 21-year time period.

Also very significant, the cash flows from operation, which is a post-tax cash flow generation of over $17 billion over this period. Some other fun facts on the bottom left here. Peak production, which I think occurred in Q3 last year for a full day stream, 216,000 BOE per day. That was obviously all coming out of Norway at that point in time. The highest realized price we've had on any given cargo over the years is $144 a barrel, and that was on the Alvheim cargo in the middle of 2008. As you've seen through recent quarterly presentations, our cash taxes are also ramping up.

Cumulative, we have now paid close to $3 billion in cash taxes. With that, I will hand back to Nick for some concluding remarks.

Nick Walker
President and CEO, Lundin Energy

Well, thanks, Teitur. I've just got one slide to finish. You know, our mission in everything we do has been long-term value creation for shareholders, and the transformation of our business is focused on that objective. On that theme of value creation, I want to leave you with three key messages. First, we're continuing to deliver strong operational and financial results in the first part of 2022, which of course is supporting a growing sustainable dividend that the company is providing. The second message is that the combination of Lundin Energy E&P and Aker BP creates a leading European independent E&P company, which I'm convinced is a win-win outcome for both sets of shareholders and will go on to provide long-term sustainable shareholder returns for all our shareholders.

Third, the remaining Lundin Energy is an exciting new renewable energy-focused business which is positioned for growth and will be led by a tremendous team with the Lundin entrepreneurial spirit. Those are our first quarter results. As this is our last quarterly report for Lundin Energy, I'd like to finish on a personal note. On behalf of me and our team, I'd like to thank you all, our shareholders and analysts, for your confidence and support over many years. It's been a real honor to work with you all and have the benefits of your feedback and insights. I think the next chapter of this great story as it unfolds, I'm convinced that we can look forward to many more years of value creation through the Aker BP shareholding and also through the renewables business that we're gonna take on and grow.

Thank you for your time, and as usual, we'll now open up for questions, which I think Ed will lead for us. Thank you very much.

Ed Westropp
VP of Investor Relations and Communications, Lundin Energy

Yeah. Thanks, Nick. Now, if I hand over to you for any questions on the line, and then you can hand back to me and see if there's any on the web.

Operator

Thank you. Just as a reminder, if you do wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad now. We have a question from the line of Teodor Sveen-Nilsen from SpareBank 1 Markets. Please go ahead.

Teodor Sveen-Nilsen
Equity Research Analyst, SpareBank 1 Markets

Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions and also congrats on a very impressive performance the past decade and also strong performance in first quarter this year. Three questions from me. First, on Wisting and the gas export. Just wondering, do you plan to or does Lundin plan to make any investment in this potential pipeline from Wisting to Snøhvit? Or do you have any other thoughts around the gas export from Wisting? Second question is on the new Lundin Energy or the renewable business. Just wondering on the growth areas. Nick, you mentioned that will be an M&A vehicle. Should we expect mainly that company to pursue wind power opportunities or also hydropower and other renewable opportunities?

My final question is just on realized oil prices, which has been very strong, of course, in Q1, as we've also seen from other companies. What's the status this far in the quarter? Have you seen also higher realized oil prices than the average Brent? That's all. Thanks.

Nick Walker
President and CEO, Lundin Energy

Good. Well, good afternoon, Teodor, and thanks for the comments. I'll cover the first one, and then Dan will do the second one who's with us, and then Teitur can cover for the oil price question. On Wisting, the gas export system's part of the project. There is some allocation of costs to other owners, but which we're not sort of ready to talk about. It'll be part of the overall plan of development for the Wisting project, including the export system. Hopefully that answers that. Dan, maybe you'd cover off the question around how we're going to grow our renewables business.

Dan Fitzgerald
COO, Lundin Energy

Yeah, no problem. Teodor, I think although we have a majority of wind assets in a small hydropower plant, I think our strategy is going to be all of the technologies in the energy transition. I think we'll start in the Nordics because that's the area that we know most about. We've spent a fair bit of time in the market in the Nordics and starting the renewable generation. I think the opportunity set around the transition and seeing the emerging technology come out to finish the energy transition beyond the generation focus, we will be looking at opportunities to create value in that space as well. Not just wind, but all the technologies.

Teitur Poulsen
CFO, Lundin Energy

Yeah. Hi, Teodor. It's Teitur here. On your oil price question, I mean, if you look at Q1, the flat price averaged around about $98 a barrel. Our cargoes are priced off the Dated Brent index, which averaged, as I said, $102 a barrel. In addition, the timing impact, as I explained, was another $2. We realized $104 versus $98 as the flat price. So far in Q2, the Dated Brent index has come off somewhat and is now trading at a slight discount to the flat price, again. I guess it'll all play itself out depending on how the Russian barrels are gonna impact the physical supply-demand balance in Europe during this quarter.

That's certainly what we saw playing out in Q1, and we will just have to wait and see during the second quarter how exactly that's gonna play out. As I said, at the moment there's a slight discount to the flat price again.

Teodor Sveen-Nilsen
Equity Research Analyst, SpareBank 1 Markets

Okay. Thank you. Understood. Congrats again on very strong results. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of James Thompson from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

James Thompson
Information Technology Manager, JPMorgan

Okay. Good afternoon, Nick, Teitur, Dan. Thanks very much for the presentation. Nick, I was wondering, could you maybe just go into the kind of outage on EG again or in a little bit more detail, just trying to understand, you know, kind of what happened there and you know, what you're doing to make sure it doesn't happen again?

Nick Walker
President and CEO, Lundin Energy

Okay, good. Well, I can for sure do that. We had electrical system failure around the gas export compressor. Of course, if we don't have a gas export compressor, we can't produce oil. This system went out and we've now partially repaired it, and we're back online, as I've mentioned, at around 75% level. We will see us ramp up to full levels over the coming weeks during May. You know, this was unusual, and I think a bit of a surprise to us.

you know, I think we understand why and you know we have a good thing is we had quite a lot of spares, because if we didn't have the spares that we had, we would have been a lot longer out. We've I mean, it's one of the reasons why we've had such high uptime over many years, actually, at Edvard Grieg. As I say, we're at 75% levels now. We'll be coming up to full rates quite shortly. You know, we did have a planned shutdown in May, planned at Edvard Grieg. So we took the opportunity to accelerate our coatings to do them during this unplanned outage, which of course greatly reduces the impact.

As I mentioned, we do still have a short outage to happen in May because there's still a terminal where the oil flows to through the pipeline is shutting down. When that's shut down, we have to shut down. But that's only a few days. We've greatly reduced. We've sort of taken the most of the shutdown during this unplanned outage. When you put together with our Q1 strong performance, our outlook for the business, which is strong, and a general conservatism in our estimates that we've had, and how we've pitched our estimates actually over many years to make sure we do meet guidance.

You know, we anticipate that we're gonna come in at or above the midpoint of our guidance range, which is unchanged from the original guidance of 180-200 thousand barrels. Hopefully that gives you enough context.

James Thompson
Information Technology Manager, JPMorgan

Yeah, that's great. Thanks, Nick. Secondly, I was just wondering, I mean, we've had a lot of conversations over the last weeks and months around cost inflation. I just wondered in terms of sort of the projects that you're planning through 2022, you know, like the Lille Prinsen and things like that, how are sort of, you know, cost estimates kind of developing through that process? How much of a factor is, you know, tightness in the supply chain when thinking about getting those projects to PDO?

Nick Walker
President and CEO, Lundin Energy

Yeah, no, I mean, it's a very good question, and I think we are seeing cost inflation. I think you know, if you look at the biggest investments that we as a company have to make, it's Wisting. I think that project is a bit more mature in terms of estimates and they've taken quite a lot of contingency and a provision for this in there. I think if we look at that one, we don't feel concerned. You know-

James Thompson
Information Technology Manager, JPMorgan

Mm-hmm.

Nick Walker
President and CEO, Lundin Energy

It is an issue, but you know, it's a bit early in the projects to understand that. I mean, what you have to understand is that the tieback projects are actually low cost projects overall, and a high quality economics. I don't think this is going to play too much of a bearing on things. I think the other thing is, you know, schedule's going to be important as well. You know, we're not under pressure to do these projects quickly. It's all about doing them efficiently. That can be part of the mitigating circumstances when you start to plan and commit to these projects.

It's really a bit early to comment on that, you know, as we're some way from sanctioning some of these.

James Thompson
Information Technology Manager, JPMorgan

Okay, thanks for that. That's my question. I guess, yeah, just say, Nick, Teitur team, you know, thanks very much for having a very interesting equity story and company to cover over the years. Wish you all the very best for the future.

Nick Walker
President and CEO, Lundin Energy

James, thank you very much.

James Thompson
Information Technology Manager, JPMorgan

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Yoann Charenton from Société Générale. Please go ahead.

Yoann Charenton
Equity Analyst, Société Générale

Yes, thank you again. I'm joining in, I mean, saying thanks again for your engaging with the sales side throughout the years. I've just a question I would like to come back on, which is on this power failure that, as you say, Nick, was unusually happening a month ago or so. Just trying to understand how likely this is to repeat in the future, if you might provide any color on this. Thanks.

Nick Walker
President and CEO, Lundin Energy

Yeah, I think I can be sure this isn't. We're not gonna see this same failure again in the future. We have spares and I think you shouldn't be too concerned by this. It's behind us in my view. We just got to get the final bits done and then move on. This is quite unusual. I think it's not something you need to think about as a future factor to take into account.

Yoann Charenton
Equity Analyst, Société Générale

Okay, thank you. I appreciate it. Thank you again, Nick, Teitur, Dan, and Ed.

Nick Walker
President and CEO, Lundin Energy

Thank you very much, Yoann.

Operator

We have one more question from the line of Mark Wilson from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Mark Wilson
Head of European Energy Research, Jefferies

Okay, good afternoon, gentlemen, and thanks for the presentation. Thanks for the perspective on the past Teitur. I particularly loved that. Particularly that the highest cost cargo was in 2008, a year I wouldn't have picked out as a high cargo year. Anyway, I would like to ask a question. Could you remind us of the benefits of sanctioning a project like Wisting before year-end in terms of the tax benefit and the value on that asset, please? Thank you.

Ed Westropp
VP of Investor Relations and Communications, Lundin Energy

I think I'll leave Teitur to answer that one.

Teitur Poulsen
CFO, Lundin Energy

Yeah, it is. It has actually quite a big impact, you know, particularly because you can fully depreciate the CapEx against the SPT tax regime. On an NPV basis, it improves projects quite significantly. It obviously varies a bit from project to project, but the more CapEx intensive a project is, the higher is the benefit. What I can think we can say sort of overarching for all our projects, it tends to reduce the breakeven price for an NPV breakeven by around 10 dollars a barrel breakeven, and it increases the IRR in some cases close to 10 percentage points improvement on IRR.

That is, you know, quite significant, which is why we deem it extremely important that we actually meet the PDO deadline at the end of this year.

Mark Wilson
Head of European Energy Research, Jefferies

Got it. Okay. Thank you, and thank you for being such a good investment case over many years. Good luck in the future with renewables and everything else that people are going to do. Thank you.

Ed Westropp
VP of Investor Relations and Communications, Lundin Energy

Thanks, Mark.

Teitur Poulsen
CFO, Lundin Energy

Thank you, Mark.

Ed Westropp
VP of Investor Relations and Communications, Lundin Energy

Cheers, Mark.

Operator

No further audio questions, so I'll hand it back.

Ed Westropp
VP of Investor Relations and Communications, Lundin Energy

No, thanks very much indeed. Yeah, we've got a couple of questions from the web. I think two of them we can deal with in one go. Nick, can you maybe just talk through, or maybe this is Teitur, just talk through, I know you highlighted in the slide, but the dividend and when the last Lundin dividend versus when you're gonna get an Aker BP dividend, because I think there's been some confusion over the 30 June completion and then the dividend schedule.

Teitur Poulsen
CFO, Lundin Energy

As I said on the slide, we had our AGM at the end of March, where the shareholders approved 2021 dividend distribution of $2.25. As usual, we distribute the dividend out on a quarterly basis. Already on the day after our AGM, we went ex-dividend on the first quarterly dividend for that 2021 dividend, which as I said, we paid out in April. In normal circumstances, if we had not done the Aker BP deal and ignored that, then our second dividend payment would have happened in July.

With the Aker BP deal, which is set to complete at the end of June, then the next dividend a Lundin Energy shareholder will receive will actually be through the Aker BP shareholding, given that the Lundin shareholder will swap a Lundin Energy share with an Aker BP share, and therefore will receive Aker BP dividends post completion of the transaction. That's the short answer, is that as a Lundin Energy shareholder, you have most likely received your last cash dividend from Lundin Energy, and your next cash dividend will be paid out through your holding in Aker BP.

Ed Westropp
VP of Investor Relations and Communications, Lundin Energy

That's normal course of dividend. Of course, then there's a cash payment of $0.73 per share that will come in early July.

Teitur Poulsen
CFO, Lundin Energy

Exactly.

Ed Westropp
VP of Investor Relations and Communications, Lundin Energy

as part of the transaction.

Teitur Poulsen
CFO, Lundin Energy

Yeah.

Ed Westropp
VP of Investor Relations and Communications, Lundin Energy

Thanks, gents. The last question, again, is on the merger. What jurisdiction's merger control clearance is required, and what's the status of the reviews by the Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy and Ministry of Finance?

Teitur Poulsen
CFO, Lundin Energy

Well, it's a cross-border merger between Norway and Sweden, which has been approved. The key outstanding approval we now need is from the authorities in Norway. Subsequent to that, there needs to be, let's just say a dividend where Lundin Energy distributes out the MergerCo, which is a new company in Sweden, which will hold all the E&P assets. The shares in that MergerCo will then be distributed out as a dividend in kind to our shareholders, and those shareholders will then swap the shares in the MergerCo with an Aker BP share and thus become shareholders of Aker BP.

Ed Westropp
VP of Investor Relations and Communications, Lundin Energy

I think it's fair to say in terms of the approvals, we don't see any risk to this deal. It's going to close on the thirtieth of June. You know, some of the approvals we have, and we just haven't got all of them yet. It's going to come in the coming weeks, and we don't see any risk. Okay, super. That ends the questions from the web. With that, I'll draw the meeting to a close. Thanks very much, everyone, for joining. Have a good day.

Operator

With the conference call, thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.

Powered by