Good afternoon, and welcome to Sandvik's presentation of the second quarter results 2022. I am Louise Tjeder, Head of Investor Relations, and beside me I have, as usual, our CEO, Stefan Widing, and CFO, Cecilia Felton. We will spend this hour together and start with a presentation when Stefan and Cecilia will take you through the quarterly highlights and some details on the financials. Then we will open up for the Q&A session. As you know, you can ask your questions in written or on the conference call, and we are prioritizing the latter. Without further ado, I will hand over the word to you, Stefan.
Thank you, Louise. Also I would like to welcome you to our second quarter report now in 2022. If we summarize the quarter, it's been a quarter where we have continued to deliver on our shift to growth strategy. We have 25% revenue growth at fixed exchange rates in the quarter. Overall, we have seen a solid demand across the businesses, and also we have seen strong contributions from the acquisitions in this quarter. On order intake, we have an increase of 22% at fixed exchange rates, and of that 4% is organic. As I mentioned, for revenues, 25% of which 6% is organic.
If we exclude our Russia market, we have had an organic increase for both of 10%, and that's just to show you how the underlying development have been outside of Russia. This would be our sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth, which we're really happy with. We haven't increased earnings, but we do have short-term pressure from cost inflation. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 23%, and that's a margin of 19%. As you know, we have some items affecting comparability of SEK 1.1 billion, most of that then related to our wind down in Russia, which we communicated a couple of weeks ago. The adjusted profit for the period improved by 23% to SEK 3.7 billion. Of course, now we continue to focus on having an agile execution.
Price management is on top of the agenda to continue to catch up and mitigate the cost inflation. We'll talk a little bit more about that as well during this presentation. W e have also launched a new savings programs to reduce our footprint that we launched in May. We have also announced five acquisitions in the quarter to strengthen our core and also increase our aftermarket business, which we'll come back to as well later in this presentation. I usually highlight a few innovations from the quarter. This first one, I think is quite interesting. It's our first real synergy case between the DWFritz ZeroTouch equipment and our Metrologic software. This combined solution allows us in a very fast way, inspect components when they come out of the CNC machine.
It's more than 10 times faster than traditional solutions. It allows us to do three-day measurement of the components and addresses an emerging need to measure every part. The more tighter tolerances you have, the more the need is to measure each and every part and not just samples. This is, for example, a need from a specific customer here, a renowned global watchmaker. It's also a need that is emerging, for example, when you manufacture components for an electric drivetrain, because the precisions and tolerances are so tight. A first, I would say, really important order for this solution during the quarter. We have also showcased our first electric surface drill rig at an exhibition here in the Nordics.
We have based this on our Commando product line, which is the smaller type of rigs, typically for use in urban areas or even in your own backyard if you have the need to do some drilling. We believe this is the first customer segment on the surface where this will become relevant. It's both battery powered as well as can be used via a cable, electricity through a cable. If you look at the market development, I want to call your attention to the blue column here with the year-over-year actual order intake. Here we have excluded Russia, just so you can get a sense for the development excluding Russia. I will comment also later on what it would look like with Russia. Excluding Russia, Europe is up 2%.
North America is strong, up 21%. Asia is down 4%. This is driven by China. In SMM, China is down 15% in the quarter, primarily driven by weak automotive market. The other markets, which is primarily mining, has been strong in the quarter. Having a segment view, mining continues to be strong basically across the board. General engineering also a solid performance in the quarter, high single-digit growth. Automotive a bit mixed picture, slightly to the weaker side, but very mixed picture with Europe being stable, North America actually strong low double-digit growth, while Asia then China, weak. Automotive China down 30% in the quarter. Energy continues to be strong for maybe obvious reasons, across the board.
Infrastructure is flattish, with maybe slightly weaker development, flat but weakening, in Europe, otherwise basically stable across the board. Aerospace, strong growth over 20% in the quarter as aerospace continues to recover. If you look at the European line, even if we add back Russia, you basically will get a flattish development across the board, and slightly to the weaker side in some segments. Russia impacted primarily energy and aerospace for us in SMM, and of course, mining. Order intake, SEK 28.7 billion, ahead of revenues again. Revenues are SEK 27 billion, so we continue to build order backlog, but the gap has narrowed compared to the big gap we saw in quarter one. We are ramping up on revenues and orders continues to increase.
From a growth perspective, we see continued strong growth, both orders and revenues, excluding FX, above 20% growth. You can though see that because of tougher comparables, the organic part is declining, while we continue to have very strong inorganic growth component into our numbers, which we will of course continue to have based on the already announced acquisitions. If you look at the margin, EBITDA first, in absolute numbers up 23%, but the margin of 19%. Important here to just say we are not happy with that. It's outside of our target range of 20%-22%, and our goal is of course to get back within that range as quickly as possible. It is fairly easy to explain, though.
We have a weak leverage, mainly because of pricing, not just offsetting cost inflation. I will say we are now basically offsetting the cost inflation that we saw prior to the Russian war. The new surge of inflation that we have seen in steel prices, energy and so on, is something that we now have to again work on offsetting, which we are doing through actions as we speak. We have also continued to see a higher share of air freight in SMR in particular to be able to service our customers. We of course have some impact from the wind down in Russia. At the beginning of the quarter in particular, we still have a full organization in place and no revenues, and that we are gradually taking care of.
We had a diluting impact from structure of 110 basis points and accretion from currency of 200 basis points. On the rolling twelve months basis, the EBITDA is still at 20%. We'll come back with some more bridges here and some explanation of what we expect a little bit ahead of us as well. Going into the business areas, Mining and Rock Solutions, solid demand again, particularly strong demand in the aftermarket. Total order intake growth of 46%. At fixed exchange rates, 35% and organic 9%. If we exclude Russia, the organic order intake was 17% and 15% on revenues. Strong continued demand on the mining side.
We also continue to see strong interest in our BEV and automation solutions, nice BEV orders above SEK 100 million in the quarter, and the second largest automation order ever also received in the quarter at SEK 86 million. The Adjusted EBITDA came in at 19.2%. Here we have, of course, structural from the DSI acquisition impacting by about 160 basis points. We also have cost inflation versus pricing, and here we have also then the higher share of air freight, which is actually quite significant impact for us in the quarter. We did a small acquisition in the quarter of Akkurate, a Finnish technology company focused on battery management technology and solutions, which fits nicely into our BEV strategy.
Rock Processing also continued solid demand in the quarter, driven by the aftermarket. Here, I mean, organic revenue organically was 0. We should remember that's against very high compares and also excluding Russia. If you add Russia or exclude Russia from the calculation organically, we're up 7% in the rest of the world against a very high compares. We are quite pleased with that number. Adjusted EBITDA of 16%, also here, impacted by cost inflation, not yet fully mitigated by pricing. Rock Processing is the ones that have been the highest impacted by raw materials because of their high portion of castings in the raw material input. We also have here some negative mix impact.
When we have lost the business in Russia and also because of the lockdowns, had to replace some business in China in the quarter, with lower margin business. Some negative mix because of that as well. Highlight in the quarter was of course the acquisition or the announced acquisition of Schenck Process Mining part, which we expect to close later in the year. Earlier today, we also announced that we have a new President for SRP, Richard Harris, which is currently the President of our Walter division. He will take over first of October. Anders, as you know, will become the CEO of Konecranes. He will stay until mid-October, so we see a good overlap there, for Richard and Anders to do a good handover. Manufacturing and machining solutions also solid underlying demand.
Again, if we exclude Russia and look at our core cutting tool brands, the growth has been 5% in the quarter organically, driven then by aerospace and general engineering, and also to some extent, energy. Total order intake growth at fixed exchange rates were 12%, so solid growth, both organically and with acquisitions. The reported organic growth, as you saw, was 1%. We have also seen a stable demand, in the first two weeks of July, and that's then in relation to June sequentially, and we could also say that June was a fairly representative month for the quarter on average. The margin was 21.5%. Here, in quarter one, SMM was on par cost and inflation, but it's a constant race, I would say, in a dynamic situation.
In Q2, they fell a bit behind again. They were negatively impacted, and they are now, of course, working with mitigating that later in this year. We did three acquisitions in SMM, a smaller round tools company in the U.S., called Peterson Tool Company, and then two highly strategic ones, Preziss and Frezite, which are both in the area of lightweight materials for automotive. As you know from our CMD, mastering the automotive shift is one of SMS's six strategic objectives. Really nice to have these companies on board in terms of strategy execution. For the last time, I will comment on materials technology. Extremely strong quarter in Q2 from SMT. Really solid demand across all segments. Record high order intake levels, especially driven by energy and industrial heating.
We can say that in the energy segment, all types of energy is in high demand. For our important umbilicals, we had order intake of close to SEK 600 million in the quarter, which means that they are getting back to very good levels on the order intake side there. Organic growth 26% year-on-year, and that is with very little major orders. You can see we had a small major order of SEK 0.2 billion, so excluding major orders, it was still up 21% organically. Also strong margin, excluding metal prices, the underlying margin was 11.9%, which is solid for SMT, especially since umbilicals invoicing is still trailing the now very good order intake.
If we include metal prices, we get almost a bit of a silly number, 26% because, of course, we have very high impact from metal price impacts in this quarter. SMT also have done a really good job on pricing, and they are fully on par or have caught up with cost inflation, mitigated by pricing. As you know, the AGM decided to go for a listing of SMT as Alleima, currently planned for end of August. Now let's go even more into the numbers. I hand over to you, Cecilia.
Yes. Thank you, Stefan. All right. Let's start with the box at the top right corner here. You can see organic growth for orders came in at 4%, 6% for revenues. If we exclude the impacts of Russia, both orders and revenues grew by 10%. We also had a positive impact from structure, a quite significant one, as you can see, 18% and 19%. Currency came in positively, which gave a total order intake growth of 32% and total revenue growth of 34%. Earnings increased from SEK 4.2 billion last year to SEK 5.1 billion this year, an increase of 23%. Margin, as Stefan mentioned, 19%. Net financial items came in positively SEK 18 million, and that was the result of temporary revaluation effects on our hedges.
Tax rate in line with guidance, 23.5%. Net working capital came in higher both compared to last year and also sequentially at 26.2%. That was mainly driven by an inventory buildup that also had a negative impact on free operating cash flow that came in at SEK -49 million. Returns 13.4% and Adjusted EPS increased to SEK 2.95 . If we continue with the bridge then, starting with the organic column, here you can see that revenues grew by SEK 1.1 billion, an increase of 6%. However, Adjusted EBITDA declined by SEK 349 million for the reasons that Stefan previously mentioned. That gives a dilutive impact of 2.7 percentage points.
Currency had an accretive impact of 2%, and our acquisitions contributed with SEK 3.8 billion of revenue and SEK 519 million of EBITDA, and that gives a dilution of 1.1 percentage points. All in all, that brings us from an EBITDA margin of 20.8% last year to 19% this year. If we continue with the net financials and starting with the net interest at the top here, you can see that it increased from SEK 68 million last year to SEK 154 million this year, and that's mainly due to higher borrowed volumes.
Going forward, however, we also expect a bigger impact from the higher interest rates, and I will come back to that in the guidance. At the bottom, you can see the impact of FX and other asset classes, plus SEK 236 million. As I mentioned, this is mainly due to temporary revaluation effects from our hedges, positive effects from both electricity and currency hedges. Eventually, though, as you know, this will net out to zero. Reported tax rate came in relatively high at 29.2%. However, if we exclude the one-off costs related to Russia, primarily, the tax rate was 23.5%, so in line with guidance for the year. Net working capital increased sequentially, both in absolute and also in relative terms. There are several reasons for this.
Firstly, as we mentioned the last few quarters, we are ramping up for growth. On top of that, in the second quarter, we also have a normal seasonality effect as we build up inventory ahead of the summer shutdowns. As you know, there's also an impact from the logistics and the supply chain challenges that we are currently facing. You can also see in the graph here at the bottom of the page that net working capital increased across all of our business areas. The inventory buildup or the net working capital buildup also had a negative impact on free operating cash flow. In the graph on the left-hand side, you can see cash conversion rate trending downwards to around 50%.
If you look at the table on the left-hand side, you can see that EBITDA adjusted for non-cash item was largely in line with last year. CapEx came in a bit higher, but then you can also see the big impact from the working capital buildup. Financial net debt over 12 months rolling EBITDA increased from SEK 0.6 billion in the first quarter to SEK 1.2 billion this quarter. That's primarily due to the dividend payment and also the closing of the Deswik acquisition. Financial net debt came in at SEK 32.8 billion. Capitalized leases increased slightly sequentially. We also had quite a drastic decline in the pension liability of SEK 3.4 billion. All in all, that brings us to a net debt of SEK 39.4 billion.
Looking at outcome compared to guidance, currency came in at SEK 918 million, a bit higher than what we guided. The metal price effect for SMT was a bit lower, SEK 649 million compared to the guided SEK 700 million. CapEx came in at SEK 0.1 billion, and interest net and the normalized tax rate in line with previous guidance. Looking ahead, we've updated the CapEx guidance to around SEK 4 billion for the year. This is now for continuing operations only, and Alleima will provide an update on their guidance for both CapEx, metal price effects, and currency effects at their Capital Markets Day in August. We continue to expect positive currency effects just above SEK 1 billion for the third quarter.
As I mentioned, now going forward, we also expect a bigger impact from the higher interest rates on the net interest. Here we've updated the guidance to below SEK 700 million from the previous SEK 400 million. Guidance for tax rate we have left unchanged. With that, I will hand back over to Stefan for summary and conclusions.
Thanks, Cecilia. If you conclude, this quarter continued solid demand with a strong contribution from our acquisitions. The sixth consecutive quarter with an underlying organic growth in the double digits. We continue to see a high interest in our automation and digital solutions, as well as our BEV vehicles. Of course, the growth development were impacted by the wind down and basically exit of the Russian market. We'll continue to have an agile execution to support our resilience going forward. We do have market leading products and solutions enabling price mitigating actions. This is something we continue to work with, and we expect Q2, meaning this quarter, to have been the toughest quarter in terms of headwind in this regard. We have announced a savings program already that will run for the next two years.
Of course, there are macroeconomic risks related to the current geopolitical situation, but we believe our decentralized operating model means that we'll continue to have our ears close to the ground, and if the market condition worsen, we will act quickly and decisively to ensure we protect our margins. We have had the Capital Markets Day as well in May, evolved our strategy, our Make the Shift strategy with some increased ambitions. Financial targets now a growth of 7% through the cycle, which I believe we are more than delivering on currently. We have an EBITA margin corridor of 20%-22%. We are below in this quarter, but with this corridor, what we are telling you is that our aim is to get back within this range as quickly as possible.
We have the financial net debt to EBITDA target of being below 1.5. I also think there is a strong commitment in the organization to deliver on the shift to growth strategy, our priorities, and our financial targets. Finally, we have upcoming a big transformation of the group, with the listing of SMT as Alleima, which is planned for August 31 of this year. Thank you for listening, and I'm sure you have a lot of questions, so let's go to that.
Yeah. Thank you, Stefan, and thank you, Cecilia. We will now open up for the Q&A session indeed. I want to ask you again to stick to questions a couple so everyone has the possibility to ask their questions on the conference call. Before we open up the conference call questions, we'll take a question online from John Buckland, Waverton Investment Management. If you can comment on the price mix component on the top line development or something about the volume organic growth. Also the second question is, what level of pricing is needed to offset the input cost?
I mean, the organic, which is PV, price volume, is both price and volume, of course. We're not giving specific details on that sort of mix. It is both volume and price in all the business areas. What is needed, that's something. I mean, of course, we have some internal plans and so on. I don't want to share a specific number because it might change and we know everyone will hear the lowest possible number that is listening to this from a customer point of view. We will do what it takes but I don't have a specific number to give. As I said, we are always aiming to mitigate with the knowledge we have.
The reason we are still behind now is because the plans we did at the beginning of the year did not anticipate the war in Russia and the Chinese lockdowns, which has added to the impact. I mean, we see inflationary data coming in higher than expected constantly, and almost daily, which is, of course, something we also have to readjust all the time for. I mean, the ambition and the plans are there, and we are implementing price increases almost every month somewhere in the business. We'll get there eventually. As I said, Q2, we expect to have been the worst quarter from this perspective.
Thank you. All right, we open up for questions on the conference call. Operator, please, we can take the first question.
We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered a queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question comes from Andre Kukhnin from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thanks very much for taking my questions. My first one is very much along the lines of what you've given some light on already. I just wanted to understand that gap from 19% margin that you have right now to the midpoint of your range that 200 basis points. Is that sort of roughly 50-50 between China and the net price effect at 100 basis points each? Or is there anything else in there or should we kind of calibrate those two factors up and down at all?
You can go.
Yeah. I can give some comments on that. If you look at a group level first, price versus inflation at group level had a dilutive impact versus last year of around 160 basis points. We have, as Stefan also mentioned, the higher share of air freight, and that's primarily within SMR. That has a dilutive impact of 0.6 percentage points, so 60 basis points. On top of that, we have then also the negative mix effect from the losses in Russia. Those are the main components.
If you add those back, you're at the midpoint.
Really helpful. Thank you. That 60 basis points is at group level, that SMR air freight?
That comment was also related to group level. However, the shift from boat to air, almost all of that effect is within SMR.
SMR. Perfect. Thank you. Not to abuse it, but my second question was kind of much broader, taking a step back, and thinking about what you talked about at the beginning about this, move towards every single item inspection, on production lines as a result of generally move towards kind of high precision components, and EV drivetrain being key part of that. Well, I'm sure you've done the work on this, because anything you can share with us in terms of what would be, the right level of penetration of this, kind of every line, every single item inspection on the line post-production versus what the current kind of penetration is?
Unfortunately, I don't have the data that I you know available or that I can share on what we think is the potential or the end game here. What I can say, it's still very uncommon, but it is something we see. There is a demand for these type of solutions that we see, but I think it's still quite, I would say, experimental. We think it's an opportunity. That's partly why we have put this together and have been excited to get the first orders.
Interesting. Thank you very much for your time.
Thank you.
The next question is from Klas Bergelind from Citi. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Hi, Stefan and Cecilia. Klas at Citi. First, Stefan, in SMM, you said stable demand in relation to June here at the start of July, and that June also represented the month for the quarter on average. I would have thought June was stronger as China came back, but I guess that suggests very solid demand outside of China in April and May. Can we talk about ex-China in July? Is Europe and Germany in particular a bit weaker now with continued strong growth in North America? Or is Europe unchanged also against June? Thank you.
I have to keep my tongue right there. When we say June is representative of the quarter, what I mean is that what we saw in June is similar to the average or roughly similar to the average in the quarter. The average in the quarter, of course, also contains June. You're right, we had a catch-up in June in China because the DC opened up. For SMS, it was not that we couldn't ship at all into China. We had to fly things in through Beijing in April and May. When we entered June, we were maybe lagging a week or one to two weeks of shipments because of those delays.
It wasn't that soon we caught up the whole quarter. Now Germany, Europe in general, no specific pattern in that sense, towards the end of the quarter. It was not that we saw a strong start and then a weaker ending or anything like that. I would say that so far demand has been holding up.
Okay. T hat's helpful. My second one is on SMT and the spin. I mean, obviously very strong trading, which is great. I just, you have to zoom in on the inflation on the energy side. You previously said that any margin weakness owing to energy inflation is not the reason to pull the spin. I guess, given possible gas rationing in Germany, I just wanna check with you, Stefan, if that message still stands. Thank you.
I mean, as I said, the planned spin is August 31. That's with everything we know up until now. I would say the formal decision in terms of all the formalities is still a few weeks out. My bet is it's gonna happen regardless of the gas situation.
Okay. T hat's helpful. Thank you.
The next question is from Magnus Kruber from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi, Stefan, Cecilia, Louise. Magnus here from UBS. A couple of questions from me, and I wanted to return to the pricing question on SMS, and I appreciate you definitely don't want to talk on the specific levels. Could you say anything about your sort of general pricing hikes compared to the market? Do you think you follow the same order of magnitude of hikes as your peers and as the general distributors are doing? Separately, could you talk a little bit about how the price hikes now in this cycle compares to what you saw in the years, say, 2006-2009 in the previous very strong up cycle?
The latter question I don't have an answer to, honestly. I wasn't around. I haven't actually looked at that data. I have to pass on that, and I guess the same is true for my people here. Yeah, we will have to go back and look at that in that case. I cannot answer that. In terms of, I mean, in machining solutions, we are price leaders, I would say. I mean, typically we are the first movers, because we are the market share leaders and we, with Sandvik Coromant, we have the most premium offering. In that sense, I would say any price changes we do tends to be fairly similar as the rest but w e start.
Got it. How long time does it take from the time you announce your hike until it gets sort of implemented?
In SMS we have various agreements that might mean that we need to announce three months in advance. Once we do the change in the price list, it basically starts immediately, let's say with a month's lag.
Got it. Thank you so much. Just moving on to SMR. I mean, historically, the order intake there has followed the price on commodities quite closely, but is there any factors this time around we should consider that could make that pattern different this time?
Yeah, I think you have to. It depends on where the commodity prices are on the cost curve of the commodity. Because if you are on the cost curve, of course, as prices move up, a number of profitable mines move up or down. You have that correlation. Where prices have been, they have been off the charts, so to say. Basically, even now, if you take copper as an example, even now when it has come down, it's still at the very end of the cost curve. I think in that sense, I think the correlation will be much smaller to a certain extent. Of course, once you're down on the cost curve, you will start to see the correlation again. Where prices are now, we are not so concerned.
Of course, cannot predict how the mining companies will what their thinking will be, but at least from a profitability perspective, basically all our customers are making good money also now.
Perfect. Thank you so much.
The next question is from Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two as well. The first one I wanted to check on free cash flow. You commented a little bit on the working capital build-out, but I think we've seen free cash flow conversion in your slide 19, I think, has been going down for a while, and it's even. I understand 2020 was really high for maybe artificial reasons, but it is down also versus 2018 and 2019 quite a lot. Can you comment on how do you see the path of this reversing back? How long would it take to get you back to those levels that you used to have historically? That's my first question.
My second question was wondering if you could comment regarding the SMR leadership change and sort of what's the plan that there and sort of whether the change means any direction in terms of the strategic things that we've heard in the CMD. Thank you.
Should I start a bit with the cash flow? As I said, we are at and as you also commented, at elevated levels when it comes to the inventory at the moment, and we expect part of that to come down, already in the third quarter as part of the normal seasonality, and we also expect a positive cash flow. However, we have been investing quite a lot in the growth that we've had, and we still have and expect the supply chain and logistics challenges to continue. For this year, we are expecting, cash conversion rate below 100%.
I also want to add, you said it's been weaker also maybe in 2021, but that was also during a period of growth and beginning of some supply chain issues. I think there is nothing operationally that has changed in terms of our ability to generate a very high cash conversion rate. But it will now be dependent on to get back to the just below 100%, we need supply chains to be robust. On SMR, there is no change in strategy. I mean, we presented a strategy update and more details of the strategy at the CMD, as you noted. That strategy was not related to any individual. It's bottoms up from the nine SMR divisions. It's of course iterated top-down from group strategy.
It's aligned with the board. Everything that was presented at the CMD is the SMR strategy. It will continue to be followed, so to say. The recruitment process is ongoing. It will not be as quick as the SRP one. As you saw, we have already concluded that one, simply because we started later and now we get into some holiday logistics and so on. Of course, we'll announce something there as soon as we are ready. No change in strategic direction.
Thank you.
The next question is from Andrew Wilson from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to start with, and I appreciate you may or may not want to help us on this, but I just wanted to try and understand in terms of customer indicators in SMM, but I'm interested as well. If you're seeing anything across any of their market segments in terms of indications of a slowing, whether that be, I guess order numbers starting or being deferred or being delayed. I guess anything that you've seen that can kinda help us, and I'm thinking across kind of auto, aerospace, energy, and general industrial, just because I expect there's perhaps some different trends across the segments. I guess please.
If it's not SMM, not really. On the other hand, of course we get an order, we deliver in 24 hours. It's a real-time business in that sense. That's why it's so much of a real-time business in that sense. We're not expecting to be given sort of a heads up in that regard. As we have said so far up until now, I would say that the demand is, I mean, solid. As we said, automotive has been weaker, but it's primarily been driven by the slowdown in China. Auto production, I think the forecast going forward is about 4% year-over-year. That might be revised, but that's the current forecast.
We maybe expect the tooling demand to be slightly below that because we were overshooting a bit end of last year. T hat's what we have, that's the view we have there right now. Energy, relatively comfortable with what Europe and U.S. is facing, that investment levels feels fairly well underpinned by demand and needs. Aerospace. It's still below pre-COVID levels, so we continue to see good growth. Of course, we have seen good growth for a number of quarters now, as you know. Just the waterfall effect means we are already at a higher level than upcoming quarters. I guess what we will see first is where general engineering goes. As we said, in Q2, high single digit growth in general engineering, actually across all regions.
Yeah, I understand your question. We are also, of course, very try to have the sensors out there, driven by all the news we see. Currently the demand picture looks okay. On the mining side, sometimes we get comments that, yeah, maybe some projects or decisions are dragging out a bit, but we also know there are price increases coming through. We have long lead times, so it might also be our ability to deliver that impacts those decisions. I don't really read too much into it from a demand picture point of view. Yeah, I think I'll stop there.
Yeah. No, thank you. That's very helpful. I guess switching a little bit, I'm interested in the restructuring program and the project business. Which of the divisions or business areas is that in? And also kind of what's been the trigger for introducing this program today rather than previously or rather than in the future?
It's from a size perspective, it's mainly in SMM, but also in Rock Processing. In relation to turnover, I would say Rock Processing and SMM have similar shares of the program. While SMR, as maybe can be understood, they are more focusing on sort of a ramp up problems. The timing is not driven by you know current market developments and so on. It's just that we had a program two years ago that we were done with that. We see more opportunities, acquisitions coming in and you know evolving the structure to be more efficient. We just saw opportunities to become more efficient.
We import at, you know, in terms of continuous improvement. We gathered all of that and launched this program.
I think we can also say that the savings are structural savings, so there are no or very limited volume related savings. In the program as well.
That's a good point because I've seen some comments that it looks like an expensive program because of the ratio between savings and cost. That is because volume related savings are much cheaper because it's usually a layoff. If you have a three or six -month layoff period, that's your payback time. These are all structural savings. It's putting factories together, which is much more expensive, it's harder, but they are sticky.
That's very helpful. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Gael de Bray from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
T hanks, very much. Good morning or good afternoon, everybody. My first question relates to the working capital buildup you had in the quarter, but also over the past couple of quarters now. F irstly could you quantify the impact from the rise in finished goods inventories in the quarter? I'm actually trying to understand if there was any margin benefit, you know, from a better absorption of fixed cost on the back of this. More broadly speaking, what's your view on your current level of inventories and maybe the level of inventories in the chain? I mean, usually when companies enter a potential recession, they try to trim inventories down. I mean, can you comment a little bit on this, please?
Do you wanna start with the margin question?
Yeah, I can start with that. There's no material margin impact from the higher inventory levels in the quarter. When it comes to the type of inventory, we've seen an increase of goods in transit, particularly in the first quarter. That still sort of remains, but we also now have a bigger share of finished goods as part of the inventory buildup in the second quarter.
It's important to say that there's actually a negative margin impact offsetting maybe some of the finished goods dynamics coming from slow moving because not because the inventory per se will not be sold, but because of the way our algorithms and the methods work. When the inventory goes up, we tend to reserve more also for slow moving or obsolete. Net-net, we don't think it has a material impact. When it comes to inventory in the supply chains, first of all, we don't see that our customers are building inventory with our products. On the SMM side, we deliver within 24 hours. Even our distribution partners hold very little inventory because they don't have to, because we deliver to them directly.
On the mining side, for sure, we, our customers are not keeping what we deliver in inventory. We know maybe some customers keep slightly higher buffer stocks on the parts side because of the supply chain logistics, but we don't believe it's material. But some impact from that. Okay, we usually go into a slowdown with slimming inventories. I would agree with that, but what should I say? It's very quick turns there between ramp up, supply chain disruptions, still expanding order backlogs that we need to deliver on. If we would go into a slowdown, we would have to manage that.
I don't see what we could have done differently because the option would be to turn down orders, firm orders and say we will not deliver. If you take some of the parts or rock tools we have, we might have had a robust 30-day delivery time to a customer via boat. Now it might be between 45 days and 90 days. We want to keep a 95% service level. You just have to do the math and then you see what extra it means that we need to keep in the supply chain. We have said we will prioritize then serving the customers. It is a bit of an elevated risk when this happens, but I don't think we can act differently.
There's none of the inventory we have that's sort of, I would say, excessive in terms of what we need to eventually deliver to customers. As Cecilia said, it will start to come down now. We are confident of that.
Okay. Thanks very much. I appreciate and I understand it's a tricky situation for you, so, thanks a lot.
The next question is from Lars Brorson from Barclays. Please go ahead.
H i. Good afternoon. Thanks, Stefan. Maybe I can just firstly revert back to Klas' earlier question with regards to the spin of SMT. You're committed, I think I heard, to the listing regardless of the gas situation. I find that quite difficult to believe in a scenario of, should we say, more material and sustained disruption to gas supplies in Europe. I know we're gonna hear from your team next month at the CMD, but just what are your high-level thoughts on the operational implications on SMT if, should we say, Nord Stream 1 doesn't start flowing again next week?
Well, if you take the direct gas impact, SMT is not that vulnerable from the perspective that their main operations in Sandviken and Hallstahammar is not consuming that, let's call it Russian gas. It's more based from the Swedish grid. Of course, they might be impacted from a price perspective. Here they have a high level of hedging levels that are actually increasing based on the experience from last winter. I don't think the operations is that dependent on the actual gas supply, but they are dependent, of course, on price levels. That's my view on that. That's why I don't think it's that, let's say, super critical for them in terms of running the operations.
I'm sure Göran can speak much more to it on the CMD. I don't want to say things he doesn't agree with, but that's my perspective in terms of why I think it does not risk the spin. I'm also saying the decision is still a few weeks out, so I guess everything is. Nothing is done before it's done.
Understood. Can I ask secondly, just to organic drop through in SMM? Did I hear you say that you expected the second quarter to mark the low point and expect an improvement in the second half on organic drop through? Maybe more generally, Stefan, historically, we've talked about incrementals in SMM in the 50s. I wonder if SMM enters a period of more material sustained negative volume development, how do you assess the margin resilience versus that historical 50% drop through? I'm just trying to understand in 2023 if we see more sticky inflation, particularly around E.U. wages, wage levels in Europe, energy costs, et c. At the same time, of course, should have what? SEK 200 million from structural savings in SMM next year.
Trying to understand how to think about margins in a more negative volume environment that may transpire.
I would say we expect them to be, let's call it, back on track in the second half. I would not commit to Q3. I definitely think they should be back sometime in Q4. I expect Q2 to have been the low point. I think if we go into next year, I mean, we should have just a bridge upside going into next year from the fact that if in Q4 we can be back on track, we have been trailing for a couple of quarters this year. That should provide some just general mitigation in that sense. They will always have the ambition to compensate for any further inflation, so something might have to be done also then beginning of next year.
We have seen historically. They have been able to push through pricing regardless more or less of the demand environment. I expect them to be resilient, I would say. Let's assume we have a downturn next year and some negative growth. We would expect them to be resilient. That's my expectations. We have been working with the ramp-up now for the past 18 months, ensuring that the ramp-up is done with flexible cost structures, so that we can also handle a downturn. Of course, they will not be completely un-impacted, but that's I guess the upside with the fact that now, in the upturn, we have seen a low leverage so far.
It also means that we should be able to have a low leverage ongoing downwards again.
Understood. Thank you.
The next question is from Sebastian Kuenne from RBC Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, everyone. My first question is on the order book, order intake. You mentioned organic order growth 4%, but if you include Russia, it would have been 10%.
Could you just explain what you mean by that? Is it that you had Russian orders during this quarter and they account for like 6% of the total order intake? Or is it an adjustment of the order book? That relates to Russia that you just take out of these orders?
No. I mean, we can basically say orders in Q2 this year was zero. If we also take out the orders we had in Q2 of last year, we take that out, so we get a lower compare, then i t was 10%. If you exclude Russia from the equation, last year versus this year, the rest of the world are 10% organic.
Understood. How big was Russia in the order book for SMR, current or existing?
The tick, i s it roughly 5.5%-ish, 5-6%?
From a revenue perspective, it's more like it's around 5%. Yes.
Okay. For the order book, the existing order book in SMR, can you give us an indication of the backlog that you currently have? How many months or what's the volume? If I assume nine months backlog for equipment, it would be like SEK 15 billion. Would that be a fair number?
Overall, you mean?
For SMR.
Yeah. We don't provide the overall order backlog, but yeah.
It would help us to understand the cost-price mismatch, timing mismatch. That we talked about the last six months.
From a timing perspective, you can assume it takes on average nine months.
It's different on different types of equipment, but on average. The order backlog you can assume around nine months.
Perfect. Last question on the service intensity, again, for mining. I wonder if it can go higher from here because you're now servicing machines that were sold in the boom of 2008, 2012, where, you know, double the equipment sales what we have now. This is now very much aging equipment, old equipment that still needs to be serviced. What's your view? Is the service level going up in future, or should we expect a drop-off and basically replacement of service business with new equipment business?
I don't have a strong perspective on your specific question when it comes to servicing of that old equipment. Portion of services right now is on very good levels. Of course, we have longer lead times for new equipment. Customers are running their equipment as much as they can. As I said, there might be some element on the parts side of customers because of the supply chain, they are placing early orders a little bit or some buffer stock. We expect it to continue to grow, but not at all at the sort of double-digit levels that we see now.
We think it will in a bit flatten out a bit at this level, with a small growth in the next period ahead of us, meaning into next year.
Perfect.
That's what we can see now.
That's it. Very helpful. Thank you so much. Much appreciated.
Thanks.
Thank you, Sebastian. Just a quick comment from you. Henrik Moberg from Danske Bank is asking, given the drop in listed equities and hence the valuation, are you expecting acquisitions to become cheaper now? Do you see risk that Sandvik paid too much last year?
I mean, you pay the prices that is in the market, so to say. I think or we see that it's easier to have negotiations on the price for sure. We see it, we are more successful as well with those conversations, definitely. I think some of the private assets in a sense, I mean, it doesn't follow one-to-one with the stock market, of course, but we see that. Which means that if some of these assets, maybe we could have gotten them even cheaper now than a year ago. That's just life. I mean, that was not an option, then someone else would have bought them, and we felt they were important for us.
Thank you. That will conclude this hour and this webcast. We of course thank you for calling in and wish you a great summer.
Thanks.