Scandi Standard AB (publ) (STO:SCST)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2019

Feb 7, 2020

Leif Bergvall Hansen
Managing Director and CEO, Scandi Standard

Good morning, everybody. Presenting our Q4 report. Just starting on page one, just looking at our average growth rate over the last six years of around 8%, 8.5%, in fact. It's been a little bit higher in 2019, as has been our CAGR over the previous years of around 7%. Going on to page three, 2019. Strong growth in sales and improved results. All in all, a 12% growth during the year, and a 19% increase adjusted EBIT. We saw a strong growth and good result in the quarter. 12% revenue growth also in this quarter. EBIT came in at SEK 104. Strong operational cash flow and a 14% return on assets. The board recommends a dividend of SEK 2.25 up from SEK 2 last year, per share. Going on to the next page.

Q4 was also a quarter with exceptional top-line growth, 10% underlying growth, mainly driven by the Ready-to-eat products. They represent all together about 2/3 of the growth we deliver in this quarter. Also strong performance in Ready-to-cook products. Currency represents 2%. For 2020, we anticipate a more modest growth rate, coming after a very strong growth in Ready-to-eat in 2019. Also, as you are aware, we'll have an impact from this pricing formula where we get compensation for raw material inflation that has led to price increases during 2019, and in 2020, that will turn a little bit the other way. That does not change our long-term anticipated growth to continue around the 6%-7% we have seen historically. Going on to talking a bit about sustainability. As you know, it's a very important focus area for us in the group.

Just going on to page six, just bringing out one example of one of the focus areas within our sustainability agenda, which is to improve the feed conversion ratio. First of all, as you are aware, chicken is already about four and a half times more feed efficient and thereby climate friendly versus beef. You see that on the first chart. On top of that, whereas chicken all in all have a feed conversion rate internationally around 1.6, we have over the last four years managed to reduce that. We now are at 1.52. That equals a reduction in the feed used of 25,000 tons. Another way of explaining that is a freeze of 4,000 hectares of farmland. Very important sustainability metric. Going on to page seven.

For 2019, we saw strong earnings development, driven partly by strong volume growth, mainly in the Ready-to-cook and Ready-to-eat. We also delivered a strong contribution from improved mix. We saw an increased proportion of branded sales contributing. We have had price increases which have matched the raw material inflation that has occurred during the year. That's coming back to this pricing model that we have implemented with our key clients. In the year, we have had some OpEx increases, mainly marketing and general inflation. Just when you look at the quarter, please be aware that we had very low depreciation in Q4 2018, which means that adjusting for that, we also saw improved profitability in this quarter. Going on to page eight. Solid development in our most profitable product categories continues. 9% growth in the quarter in Ready-to-cook.

Both as a volume impact, there's improved mix, but also a pricing impact from this raw material compensation I talked about. In Ready-to-eat, we deliver another quarter with exceptional growth of 34%. The capacity increases that we have put in place over the last couple of years, we have saw quite a lot of that. Volume increases both in branded and also in unbranded categories, and more and more benefits coming from our very extensive product development initiatives that have been taken in this category over several years have continued into this quarter. The quarter was impacted by some inventory clearance, frozen products, that have led to increased sales of some of these categories compared to the norm. Going on to page nine. Just point to the Ready-to-eat category development over the last five years.

Sales have increased with about four times, all of that organically. The ratio to total sales have gone from 9% to now 20% per year. It reflects this market is clearly growing, and we are taking a lot of initiatives to develop the market and to remain a strong leader in this category. We see this as an important platform for developing the business into the future. Flipping page, looking at the breakdown in terms of sales channel. Retail continued to grow, representing a growth of 9%, combination of both growth with discounters but also with high-end retailers. Foodservice also performed very well with a growth of 33%, reflecting people are eating more and more out, but also our growth within Quick Service Restaurants, but also a very strong product innovation pipeline and where we have strengthened the organization in quite a number of areas.

Going on to page 11. Earnings improvement in all countries in 2019. Altogether, 19% improved EBIT and all countries have contributed to that development. For Q4, we see a more stable development in terms of EBIT, but when you adjust for the depreciation, that was exceptional in the Q4 of 2018, as I mentioned, you see also an improved development in this quarter. Talking a little bit about the countries. Sweden delivered solid growth and improved margins, 6% increase in sales, reflecting a good market growth. We delivered an improved EBIT margin, mainly coming from increased cost efficiency and also increased yields, and we continue to have a positive market outlook. Denmark, a quarter with exceptional growth and low margins, 24% revenue growth coming mainly from the Ready-to-eat area, but also continued positive development for the new brand. The quarterly result were impacted by some special items.

There was some frozen inventory clearance, but also some restructuring initiatives taking place in the quarter. Going forward, we will have a strong focus on improving margins and we anticipate the situation to gradually normalize during 2020. Going on to Norway, continuing a very strong performance. Top-line wise, a growth of 3%, 5% in local, and not least, the Ready-to-eat segment have contributed to that positive top-line development. Continued absolutely best-in-class margins. We see a strong contribution from the product portfolio and also a clearly improved operational performance taking place in Norway. Ireland coming with another good quarter, 6% revenue growth, 3% in local, coming mainly from a good operational performance and also some effect of some successful investments that we have made during the course of last year.

Both to deliver improved cost efficiency, also some improved animal welfare and food safety, and will also deliver some debottlenecking in certain parts of the operation. Going on to Finland. Strong growth, but a tough quarter in terms of results. 22% revenue growth. Weak margins in the quarter, mainly coming from some seasonal costs and also some inventory clearance taking place. We see that going into 2020, there will be further improvements on our performance coming partly from some debottlenecking activities, improved product mix, and further innovations, and we also see further opportunities to reduce costs and improve yields within operation. With that, I'd like to hand over to you, Julia, for the income statement.

Julia Lagerqvist
CFO, Scandi Standard

Thank you. We turn to page 17, coming back to the income statement. As Leif said, we have a strong growth in the quarter of 12% and adjusted EBITA margin of 10%. Growth in the EBITA margin, which leads us to a margin of 7.6%, roughly the same as last year. As Leif mentioned, we have the increased depreciation in this quarter. Last year, we did the restatement of the expected asset life, which had a positive one-off effect in Q4 of 2018. This year, we are more in line with the run rate. We have a stable adjusted EBIT. There are some non-recurring items in the quarter. It's mainly related to restructuring in Denmark. Looking at the tax rate, it's at 37% this quarter. It's very high. It's related to a revaluation of losses carried forward of roughly SEK 16 million .

Adjusted for this will be more at normal levels, this leads us to a net income of SEK 42 million in the quarter. Looking at the statement for our financial position. The Return on Capital Employed has improved with a 1.3% up to 11% now, the Return on Equity for the year is at 14.2%, up 1% from last year. The Equity Ratio is at 28%, also improving from last year, 27%. Just as a note, with the implementation of IFRS 16 related to leasing of assets, this has an effect, of course, on the Net Interest-Bearing Debt of around SEK 445 million in 2019, roughly the same level as we had in 2018. Turning to the Working Capital on page 19. We have seen a reduction in the Working Capital in this quarter.

It's partly related to seasonal effects and also some temporary items, but we have also increased our vendor financing activities. This leads to a very low level of working capital ratio at 2.1%. We don't expect this to last, but the normal level should be more in the area of 4.4%-6%. Looking at the cash flow, we see a strong improvement here. It is driven both by the improvement in EBITA and of course the significant release of working capital. Despite having a high quarterly expenditure, we still see a positive effect on the net cash flow, and the net cash flow per share is at SEK 5.12. Coming to the cash flow guidance. The dividend policy is remaining the same.

It's 60% of net income over time. As Leif mentioned in the beginning, the dividend proposal now is at SEK 2.25 , up 12.5% from last year, and it should be paid in the quarter two of 2020. The paid interest is still estimated to be at 3%-2.5% of the average net interest-bearing debt. The blended effective tax rate is to be around 20%-21%. Looking at the capital expenditures for 2020, we are estimated to be in line with this year to close to SEK 420 million.

It is to be spread within the group, and the focus is on facilitating growth and margin improvements across the group. Just to comment, the corporate cost for the next year is estimated to be around SEK 20 million per quarter. Let's comment on the continuing liabilities. We have our Manor Farm acquisition. As you know, there are three earnout tranches here. The first one we paid in 2019, it was SEK 133 million. Second will come now in 2020, and the third and final one will be in 2021. With that, I hand back to Leif.

Leif Bergvall Hansen
Managing Director and CEO, Scandi Standard

Thank you. Summing up the year we saw a strong growth and good results. Continue to see solid demand for our products across the market, driven by people being more and more impacted by the climate implication of our choices, but also on health. 2019 delivered a growth that's well above our five-year average of 6% - 7%. Solid innovations continue to drive both our top line and our mix improvements. Also that continuing into 2019. We saw a further strengthening on our brands. We do anticipate a lower top-line growth for 2020 following this exceptional 2019. We will be focusing increasingly on margin improvements from Q4 of 2019. Continue to follow structural opportunities closely, and the board are recommending a dividend of SEK 2.25 per share. With that, we would like to take any questions. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your phone is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Daniel Schmidt of Danske Bank. Daniel, please go ahead.

Daniel Schmidt
Analyst, Danske Bank

Yes, hello. Good morning.

Julia Lagerqvist
CFO, Scandi Standard

Morning.

Daniel Schmidt
Analyst, Danske Bank

A couple of questions from me. Starting with price increases you mentioned in the quarter and also, of course, you reiterate at the same time what you said in connection with the Q3 report looking into 2020 that there will be a moderation of growth given the comps, but also in terms of raw material going the other way and so on. Could you give us any sort of indication of how much price increases you had in the current quarter and what you expect to reverse going into 2020?

Leif Bergvall Hansen
Managing Director and CEO, Scandi Standard

Will say that we have seen that the growth in 2019 have been inflated with 3% to 4 percentage points altogether. We will see that normalizing somewhat, not to the full degree into 2020.

Daniel Schmidt
Analyst, Danske Bank

Okay. Good.

Leif Bergvall Hansen
Managing Director and CEO, Scandi Standard

Bearing in mind that we have had very exceptional growth in the ready-to-eat area.

Daniel Schmidt
Analyst, Danske Bank

Yeah. Sure. Then I know that you're fairly neutral when it comes to raw material, but there is some deviations when it comes to Ireland, if I'm correct. Then would that mean that you would be gaining a little bit in terms of raw material and input cost in the Irish business starting in 2020?

Leif Bergvall Hansen
Managing Director and CEO, Scandi Standard

No. I would say that these numbers are more or less relevant for across the group, where we have managed to get compensation for the raw material, which is an important part of our business model. We will see that effect also continuing into 2020.

Daniel Schmidt
Analyst, Danske Bank

Okay, no deviation really versus the Nordics then?

Leif Bergvall Hansen
Managing Director and CEO, Scandi Standard

No.

Daniel Schmidt
Analyst, Danske Bank

No. All right. Moving on to Denmark and efficiency, and you've been sort of focused on improving efficiency now in the second half of 2019 and maybe even earlier when it comes to the Danish business. Have we seen the end of restructuring now as we go into 2020 when it comes to this particular area?

Leif Bergvall Hansen
Managing Director and CEO, Scandi Standard

Yeah, I would say so. We have taken by far the bulk of the initiatives we want to take, and we anticipate that margins will normalize during 2020.

Daniel Schmidt
Analyst, Danske Bank

Is that sort of a gradual normalization?

Leif Bergvall Hansen
Managing Director and CEO, Scandi Standard

Yeah, exactly. A more gradual improvement. We will anticipate that to take place. After a year with very, very exceptional growth, we will see a much stronger focus on improved margins and get that back to where it should be.

Daniel Schmidt
Analyst, Danske Bank

Yeah. Could you shed some more light on what the one-offs relate to more exactly in the quarter?

Leif Bergvall Hansen
Managing Director and CEO, Scandi Standard

It's been some stock clearance, some changes in various parts of the organization. That has basically in an effort to ensure that that very exceptional top-line growth, that we also get some margin improvements from that into the future.

Daniel Schmidt
Analyst, Danske Bank

All right. Any sort of comments at all on sort of the latest news flow in terms of Eastern Europe and bird flu and the breakouts that we've seen there? It seems like it hasn't been any new in the past two, three weeks. Do you have any more to sort of add to that?

Leif Bergvall Hansen
Managing Director and CEO, Scandi Standard

Not really. Of course, we follow the situation. We have very strong measures to prevent this from affecting us. We just continue to reiterate those. Otherwise, it's pretty far away from us. Of course, we follow the situation.

Daniel Schmidt
Analyst, Danske Bank

Okay. All right. That's all for me. Thank you.