Good afternoon, everyone, and a warm welcome to our Q2 update. We are shaping the leading company in the security industry, and the execution of the strategy is generating results. We had solid performance in all business segments in the second quarter, delivered 5% organic sales growth, and the real sales growth for Technology Solutions was 8% when we are excluding the impact of the divestment in Argentina. The operating margin improved to 6.9%, and this was driven by all business segments this quarter. I want to highlight that the actions initiated in Europe, with emphasis on active portfolio management and increasing price thresholds for new business, are starting to generate a positive impact, and Europe represented the largest year-on-year improvement in the results. Stronger demand and improved operational efficiency in aviation also contributed to the improvement in Europe.
Importantly, the price-wage balance in the group is slightly positive in the first six months. Looking at the cash flow, the operating cash flow was 60% in the second quarter. This is roughly in line with our expectations, and we are in a solid position to deliver a strong full-year 2024 outcome. Looking at the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, it is stable at 2.9. I just wanted to highlight as well is that as we are closing out now the first half of 2024, almost two years have passed since we made the transformative acquisition of Stanley Security. In the process, we created Securitas Technology. This is a milestone, and I would just like to provide a few highlights and reflections in terms of where we are right now. Today, Securitas Technology is the second player in the electronic security market worldwide.
Based on the strong offering and very good work by our team, we are developing existing business and winning new business at a healthy pace. This is resulting in 8% organic sales growth in the most recent quarter. We have also surpassed SEK 1.25 billion in recurring monthly revenue and achieved more than $50 million in synergy takeout, and the operating margin has improved significantly in the last two years. We largely finished now with integration work in North America and are driving good progress in Europe. In summary, there is still work to be done, but our teams have done tremendous work during the last 24 months. When you look at Securitas as a company, we have improved our client offering to another level with the creation of Securitas Technology, and this business obviously plays a very important part in our future.
Building on this, let us shift the performance in the different business lines. We're also making very good progress in the security services business. The growth, if we're starting there, in security services was 1% in Q2. As previously announced, the termination of a larger aviation contract in North America had a negative impact on the growth, but we feel good about the commercial momentum. New sales across the group are healthy. The EBITDA margin of 5.6% represents a significant improvement versus last year, with improvements across all segments. But like I mentioned, Europe delivered the largest improvement, and here performance in our aviation business also contributed to the good development. The real sales growth in Technology & Solutions was 7% in the quarter, and the operating margin improved to 10.4%. As commented, two years after Stanley acquisition, our global technology business is stronger than ever.
As stated on the previous slide, we delivered a healthy organic sales growth of 8% in technology in the second quarter. These numbers also represent a favorable mix change since we are driving higher growth in the more profitable parts of our business. Shifting then to the performance in the segments, we start with North America. There we recorded a 2% organic sales growth. We have good installation sales momentum in technology, and we are growing the technology business at a faster pace than the market growth. The already mentioned termination of an airport security contract had a negative impact on the services growth in the quarter. Having said that, commercial activity is good, and we expect to recover top-line momentum in services in the coming quarters. The share of Technology & Solutions represents 38% of sales in North America in Q2.
Looking at the client retention, 86%, I just wanted to highlight that number is lower than normal, and it was negatively impacted by the airport contract termination. Turning then to the profitability, where we delivered a strong operating margin of 9.2% in the quarter. The development was driven by the technology business, where cost synergies, higher operational efficiency generated a positive impact on the performance level. After the successful integration efforts, we are now also operating at a different scale and sophistication today in North America. This is from product installations to service and maintenance, and this is visible in higher service delivered to our clients, but also higher profitability. Looking at the services side, the operating margin in guarding was stable in the second quarter. Moving then to Europe, where we delivered 8% organic sales growth.
Healthy price increases in the services business are contributing in a significant way. But as in previous quarters, the inflationary environment in Turkey accounts for a significant share of the growth. Technology & Solutions also contributed with good growth in Europe. Shifting to profitability, where we achieved an operating margin of 6.4%. This is a significant improvement versus the same period last year. Security Services is the main reason behind the improvement. Here, Active Portfolio Management and increase in the price thresholds on new business are generating a positive impact on the guarding portfolio margin. The airport security business also contributed, as I mentioned earlier, with improved operational efficiency and also then a certain seasonality impact and stronger demand. Operating margin in Technology also improved, but here we still have some negative impact from ongoing system and support transitions that we explained in the Q1 report.
So I'm very pleased to see the improvement in Europe, but having said that, we do have a lot more work to do. We continue to drive higher margin requirements for new contracts, active portfolio management, and cost actions in the guarding part of the European business to ensure that we deliver a significant improvement in the margin also going forward. Moving then to Ibero-America, where our team continued to drive positive development. The organic growth was very healthy at 8%. When comparing versus last year, the declining growth, if you're looking at the chart here, is due to the divestment of our business in Argentina. The organic sales growth in Spain increased to 9% thanks to price increases and strong Technology & Solutions momentum. In Latin America, the organic sales growth continued to be driven by price increases.
Shifting then to the profitability development with 6.8% operating margin, which is a substantial improvement versus last year. And we are seeing solid margin improvements in security services as well as in technology and solutions. And the positive revenue mix change is contributing to the improvement as well as the divestment of our business in Argentina, where we had below average margins. So reflecting on the segments and the state of the business, I'm really glad to conclude that we are driving improvements across all business segments and have a positive outlook for the second half of the year. And with that, over to you, Andreas, and some more details on the financials.
Thank you, Magnus. Starting with the income statement, where we had 5% organic growth in the quarter and delivered a 6.9% operating margin, where our European and Ibero-America business were the main drivers of the margin improvement. Looking below operating result, there are no major news related to the amortization of acquisition-related intangibles nor acquisition-related costs. Items affecting comparability was -SEK 243 million, where SEK 219 million is related to our Stanley integration and SEK 24 million is related to the European and Ibero-America transformation program. As usual, I will come back with some more details here shortly. Looking at the financial net, which is coming in at SEK 617 million, which is SEK 76 million higher than last year, and this is mainly due to increased interest rates. The impact from IAS 29 hyperinflation was SEK 27 million, with a similar impact also last year.
Our full-year estimate remains at SEK 2.4 billion, excluding IAS 29 and FX gains and losses, so in other words, unchanged compared to the estimate in Q1. Moving then to tax, and here the forecasted tax rate for the full year is unchanged at 26.5%, which is a slight decline compared to 26.8% last year. Let us then move to our IAC programs and looking first at the European and Ibero-America transformation program. Here we had reduced cost in the second quarter. We are now leveraging our previous investments into the platform design and implementation program to have a more scalable and cost-effective rollout. In the second quarter, the cost was SEK 24 million, and the cost run rate will continue to be at a lower level the rest of the year, and the estimate for the full year remains around SEK 150 million.
In our Stanley integration program, we announced a total cost of approximately $135 million after the acquisition. The synergy takeout and integration continues to make good progress in Europe. In North America, we are closing down several integration workstreams, and although there are some important activities on the IT side remaining, we are at the end of the integration phase. As we have mentioned earlier, we are also going through a period of heavy lifts in the IT integration and platform implementation work generally, and this work will continue throughout 2024. We have decided to make additional investments into the program to ensure a robust IT and platform integration and estimate to land around $550 million-$600 million this year compared to the previous estimate of $400 million.
Looking at the left-hand side, we have been going through a period of investments into our transformation programs and the Stanley integration over the last years. The IC cost peaked in 2023 with a total cost of SEK 1.35 billion for the year, and in 2024, the investments are significantly reduced, and we expect to land between SEK 700 -SEK 750 million for the full year, impacting both our EPS growth and cash generation positively throughout 2024. Moving then to an overview of the FX impact on the income statement, and here we saw limited impact from currencies in the second quarter compared to last year. On sales, there was a 1% negative impact from FX and a similar impact on the operating result in the second quarter, where the differences on EPS level mainly derived from different currency mixes below operating result.
The second quarter EPS real change, excluding Items Affecting Comparability, was 8%, and in essence, this is derived from the real change on operating income being 8% as well, positively impacted by the 5% organic growth in combination with our 30 basis points margin improvement. We then move to cash flow, where we, as expected due to the Easter timing differences compared to last year, had stronger operating cash flow in the second quarter. The operating cash flow was SEK 1.7 billion, or 60%, and to be compared to last year in Q2 when it was SEK 1.2 billion, or 46%. The cash flow was further supported by reduced growth and an improved situation related to the ERP challenges in our transformation and Stanley integration program that we have previously communicated.
These positive effects were partly mitigated by reduced account payable position in the quarter, which was against a strong comparable last year. The free cash flow was SEK 429 million and was impacted by negative timing effects related to tax payments and increased interest payments due to the increased interest rate environment. We remain with the estimate for the full year that the finance net will be around -SEK 2.2 billion in terms of cash. All in all, we delivered a decent operating cash flow in the second quarter, and we are in a good position to deliver a full-year operating cash flow within our financial targets of 70%-80% for the full year. We have a look at our net debt, which landed at SEK 41.9 billion.
This is up SEK 4.3 billion from the start of the year, impacted mainly by the SEK 1.1 billion dividend we paid out in the second quarter, the negative free cash flow of SEK 0.9 billion, but also materially impacted by the weakened Swedish krona compared to year-end, which increased our net debt with SEK 1.7 billion. Looking at the net debt to EBITDA, which was down to 2.9 when comparing to Q2 last year when it was 3.3, and it continues to remain below our financial target of a net debt to EBITDA of less than 3, despite the seasonally weaker free cash flow generation the first half of the year, the dividend paid, and the negative FX impact that I mentioned earlier. Moving on to have a look at our financing and financial position. We continue to have a solid financial position.
None of our facilities have any financial covenants, and the liquidity position remains strong in the quarter at SEK 5.2 billion. We also have our RCF facility of more than EUR 1 billion in place until 2027, and it remains fully undrawn as per the end of the quarter. As I mentioned earlier, we currently have less maturities to refinance after the bond issuance that we did in the beginning of the year. We continue to focus on refinancing higher cost debt to minimize our interest cost, and in this quarter, we refinanced part of the Schuldschein with a new bank loan facility at substantially lower margins. After the upgrade to BBB in Q1, we also continue to see strengthened credit metrics from S&P, as they now also increased our liquidity rating to strong from adequate.
All in all, we are continuing in an unchanged way to continue on driving good cash flow generation, deleveraging our balance sheet, and as always, we remain committed to our investment grade rating. With that, to you, Magnus.
Many thanks, Andreas. So just a few comments related to the strategy execution and value creation before we open up the Q&A. We are making good progress in shaping the new Securitas with a strong and comprehensive client offering. And one positive thing now is that as we are completing more of the heavy integration work, we also have more time to spend with our clients. And when I'm beginning to engage with the clients and also many of the leaders in the team, we've had quite a lot of interaction over the last couple of months, and I just wanted to share a few points in terms of what I've been hearing from them. Because when you look at the current environment, there is quite a lot of uncertainty. We have an elevated threat landscape.
Existing clients, but also potential clients are looking for a strong partner with deep security expertise. When looking at the future, they're also looking for a long-term partnership approach. The rate of change in technology is also quite high. They're also looking for a partner that can make a complex world more simple. A partner that not only brings technology and guarding capabilities, but a partner that is adding sharp security and risk knowledge together with digital capabilities to create the leading security equation for tomorrow. This is something that, in a way, you can say that from a societal perspective, the uncertainty we're seeing in the world is obviously regrettable, but we are also seeing and also feeling increasingly more confident in terms of the value that we can bring to our clients.
I think this is also one of the main reasons that we are winning important contracts and also have good confidence in terms of the commercial activity going forward. One thing that I mentioned in the quarterly CEO comment is that last month we signed a new global contract with a leading technology company. This is a sizable contract with a global scope, but what makes it unique is that this is a so-called Vested contract. This means that the client has shifted the focus to the output, so that is the outcomes that they want us to deliver together with them, as opposed to the input. The input is then more in terms of we want X number of hours or X number of cameras or sensors on a particular location.
We will work now in close partnership to build and also then optimize an advanced security program where we leverage our knowledge, presence, and technology as well as digital capabilities. We mentioned this one, and I was keen to mention it because it's just one example, but we have a very promising pipeline with opportunities that will help and also drive valuable growth as we go forward. Because this is obviously about value creation, and as we are finishing the standard security integration work, like I mentioned, we can now shift a lot more focused to operational value creation and generating also enhanced shareholder value. We have clear focus areas, as we outlined in the Capital Markets Day in March this year, to then deliver strong operational value.
But apart from a stronger offering, we're also building a more scalable business now, and our digital capabilities are starting to drive meaningful impact. So the progress is good. We have a strong focus across the company to achieve our 8% operating margin target by the end of 2025. So in summary, then looking at the quarter, we deliver across all segments 30 basis points improvement in the operating margin to 6.9. We are improving the operating margin in security services in a significant way as well as in technology and solutions. So this is a clear step in the right direction, but I also want to make clear that we can and we need to do a lot more. By looking at the progress, we are executing on the strategy, and this is generating results. So with that, happy to open up the Q&A.
If you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Suhasini Varanasi from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two, please. One on the IAC costs that are going up linked to Stanley. Can you give a little more color on what's driving the increase, please? And is there a risk that it goes up again in the future? Secondly, you probably have six quarters left to the end of 2025, and you're maintaining the 8% margin target. Currently, the margins are running at 7% levels. By when should we expect material shift in the margins? I appreciate that there has been improvement on a year-over-year basis in 1H already this year. But what are your other plans to get the extra 100 basis points on margin expansion? What can we look forward to, please? Thank you.
Thank you. Starting with the IAC, I think related then to the Stanley program, I think it's first important to mention, we are driving a really deep integration here, where first of all, this was a carve-out, and we are integrating the Stanley business into our existing also technology business. And here, the teams have done great work over the last year on that integration. There have been some cost pressure throughout this year. That's one part. But secondly, we have also decided to increase the scope in certain areas to really make sure when we are finalizing the integration, we are coming out in really good shape with platforms and an IT infrastructure that will really support the business going forward, both to grow, but to continue to drive operational efficiency as well. So those are the main reasons there.
And then when it comes to the risk of future cost increases, that is never our intent. We are tracking this on a monthly basis together with the team with clearly defined sort of cost streams, etc. So this is our current estimate that we also expect to hold up. And Suhasini, I will comment on the second question as well. But I think it's also important to understand. I mean, when we started integrating and driving the work of Stanley Security, we are now driving and building kind of deep integration in terms of our capabilities and platforms. And so we're really building for scale. Because if you look at that, we have a very significant part of the business, which is recurring revenue. We have a very significant part, which is service and maintenance.
And what we have also seen, and most notably in North America, but also a few countries in Europe, is that we're not just standing up a separate business here and kind of adding that on the side. We are leveraging the capabilities that we had in Securitas before, but then also really shaping a new kind of harmonized capability and way of working with technology across all the key markets. And that's something that I'm convinced it's going to serve us really, really well. So I just wanted to highlight that because when we're making some of those decisions, yes, we could do a little bit less if we wanted to, but we're also so convinced based on the track record and also the delivery.
All of that capability translates to better client delivery in terms of service level, but also significantly higher efficiency and also profitability for ourselves. Coming to the second question, we shared an ambitious plan to get to 8% at the end of 2025. We outlined also in the capital markets day, which are the key components in the bridge in terms of how do we get there. Here, obviously, yes, we have six more quarters, but we also have very clear focus areas in terms of driving the technology and the solutions, which we are doing at a good pace, really actively also finishing the work on the guarding portfolio. And there, the majority of the work is no longer in North America. It's more in Europe and Ibero-America that we need to complete and really get that done.
That in itself, obviously, also with an underlying improvement in terms of profitability and also the growth profile, that will also mean that there is going to be, or there has to be a meaningful also kind of revenue mix change as well between the different parts of the business. But that we are doing also to make sure that we are really shaping a new profile. And there, I believe that there is good progress, but like I mentioned at the end of the call, there is still a lot more that we need to do and that we need to get done. But we have a clear agenda there. But then we also continue to assess all parts of the business. I've said that many times.
Everything that we have in the business has to be fully aligned with the strategy, but it also has to support our 8% margin target by the end of next year. So we have a strong commitment. It means high pressure, absolutely. But we also feel that it's very important that we also complete and get this work done. Because then it's also more up to us how we then think about how we are maximizing shareholder value also then in the mid and the long term. And that's really the entire focus that we are driving in the company now. But we should also remember that the offering that we have to our clients, it's stronger than any other company can offer. And that's also the reason that we're also winning trust.
We win a new business at better margins as well than what we have done in the past. I mean, there is also a positive kind of momentum that will also help and support this shaping a new profile of Securitas to a higher profitability level.
Thank you for that. If I may ask just one very quick question. I think in your report, you did mention that there is a U.S. government investigation into the critical infrastructure business. Do we have any idea on the timing of when this investigation will conclude? And given that it's already been separated from your core North America business, should we then anticipate maybe a disposal of this business in the future? Thank you.
Yeah, I think since you bring it up here, this is something that we have disclosed quite some time ago. We cannot really influence. We just collaborate fully with the authorities in terms of the investigation. It is related to the relationship that we had with various business entities. They were then essentially direct or indirect party to contracts with the U.S. government. And there is, I mean, it's related to alleged misconduct by certain former then-Pentagon employees. If you look at that, we can't really comment on the timing. As always, if we find any type of wrongdoing, we make sure that we do right. So we do collaborate as much as we possibly can. We are obviously hoping that we can conclude that sooner rather than later because clarity is always good, and we can put that behind us. But that's really where we are.
In terms of speculation about divestment or potential divestment or not, I mean, we never comment on any speculation. The only message that I want to share and just re-emphasize is the fact that we have been working over the last couple of years in terms of assessing every part of the business just to make sure that it's supportive and in line with our strategy midterm and also for the longer term. And that includes all parts of the business that we have. I think that's as much as I can comment at this point in time.
Yes, of course. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Rémi Grenu from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
And thanks for taking my question. A few, if I may. So the first one is around the pricing contribution to the 5% organic growth. If you could break that down, that would be helpful. And what specifically is linked to the hyperinflation in Turkey? Also interested in what it implies for volume growth and how you expect that volume to evolve over time, especially in the context of the large contract you were referring to, if this is having a significant impact. That would be the first question. The second one is on the comments you've made on tax payments and it being a phasing issue. So if you could give us more flavor on what that is and whether we should expect a reversal in the second half.
The last point is on this global contract with a client, which I think you said is more focused on the outcome rather than quantified number of hours worked, etc. Can you maybe help us understand how the pricing work on that kind of contract and how you've made sure that your embedded clauses are looking at the project-related risks there and to avoid situations like the one we've seen with this aviation business in Europe? Thanks.
Good. So maybe I can take the first and the third question, and then you take the tax question, Andreas. When you're looking at the growth, 5%, I believe roughly 2% of that is related to Turkey. If you're looking at then mathematically, roughly half of the growth in Europe related to the hyperinflationary environment. The volume, I mean, if you're looking at the growth in terms of the services part of the business, it is primarily price-driven growth when you're looking at that part. And that's really by design because we are taking a very tough approach in terms of the profitability requirements. And that's for business coming in, which is coming in at good margins, I should emphasize, but it's then also really addressing lower or poor-performing contracts as well. So in terms of the volume, yeah, it's mostly price-related growth in the services side.
I want to highlight technology. We're delivering good growth. That is also something which is important because we have been driving a lot of integration effort. One of my key concerns that I also shared publicly that we have to avoid is that we become too inwardly focused. I don't think that is the case. Our teams are doing a good job there. We're also coming out stronger with a significantly stronger capability. And there, like I mentioned, 8% organic growth in technology, I mean, that's a good 8%. And that's a really healthy number and definitely above the market growth according to my assessment. I think that is hopefully giving you some flavor. If you're looking at the contracts or your third question, it is a unique one. I think it's actually an industry first, at least something of this type of a scale.
And the interesting thing here is that we're essentially then for quite some time together with this client then reviewing where they are. But then as opposed to taking an approach where they are saying, "We want more officers here or more hours there or specifically more cameras or sensors in that location," the discussion has focused on what we have always believed is going to be the future of this industry. And that is then that we build a really good understanding in terms of what are the outcomes that they are looking for. And then they come to us and say, "Can you help us and optimize and deliver those outcomes?" And that's something which is obviously, it does require a lot of trust. And I think that trust is there because we really share good values between these two companies.
But we also share a clear view in terms of how to operate a security program in the most efficient but also effective manner. So while this is the first one, I definitely don't believe this is the last one. I think this is just the start of a longer-term trend that in some shape or form, we will be able to also then build based on these learnings. Two other points that are important. One is that there is a clear agreement and expectation that we leverage all of our competence and protective services here.
So this is then including not only our guarding and technology capabilities, but that we're also infusing significantly more digital tools so that we also become more dynamic, more insight-driven, and that would also enable us to be more responsive, but also to be able to optimize on a more dynamic basis based on potential risk level. When you look at the pricing, more of the responsibility is then, because I think that was your question as well, is then essentially then within a certain envelope is to say, "Okay, how do we optimize the program within that type of an envelope?" And that's obviously very much up to us how we then make that happen. But everything that we are doing is then obviously in full transparency and once again, linking everything to the outcomes that we want to deliver and this client is really looking for.
So yeah, I hope that gives you at least some further understanding in terms of the logic. I'm a firm believer in this. We're kind of having more and more discussions going clearly in this direction. That is very much because of a few factors: uncertainty level, elevated threat, increasing complexity, faster development in terms of technology. It's also more and more difficult for many of our clients to also keep up and to be the best at this. This is when they're looking for a strong partner. This, as you know, has been our kind of wanted position for quite a while that we should be the clear number one choice for any partner that is looking for that.
Because the clear expectation from my side is that this is going to generate a better security program, more effective, but also more efficient one in terms of cost of ownership for the client. Because we then also have a shared interest in terms of running it as efficiently as we possibly can together. So it is unique, and we will obviously share more also as we are progressing with this one and also other potential clients along the same lines.
Related to the tax question, if we are looking at the taxes paid in the second quarter, that was approximately SEK 460 million higher than in the second quarter last year. Slightly more than half of that is a timing impact from 2023 where we could postpone preliminary tax payments in the U.S. And that was then paid in Q4.
That part will then. You will see that in the comparables for the fourth quarter. The remaining part here is basically not only, but the majority is related to top-up payments for 2023 tax payments that were paid this year. There we will have to see what the timing impacts will be towards the end of this year related to the 2024 tax payments as well.
Okay, understood. Thanks.
The next question comes from Sylvia Barker from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi there, afternoon. Three questions for me, please. Firstly, could you remind us what the revenue and profit are today from aviation in Europe on an annualized basis? Secondly, could you comment on wage inflation for this year in the group and across the three divisions? And then finally, third question, just going back to the items affecting comparability related to Stanley. I know you were asked that already, but how much of that SEK 550-SEK 600 relates to software? And how do you think about putting these costs above or below the line? Could you explain why they've been split out as exceptional? Thank you very much.
Thank you. If we start with the size of our aviation business, it is around 6% of our sales on a global level. From a profitability perspective, we're not breaking out the aviation business per se. Although what we should say, there was a strong improvement in Q2 compared to Q1. That's the normal seasonality in the aviation business where the Q2 and Q3 are normally the strongest quarters as well. And we also saw good progress compared to last year in the aviation business here in the quarter as well, especially in Europe.
When it comes to the IC question related to software, if we would capitalize anything, which has become less with the cloud computing regulations that we're having in place, to be clear, if we would capitalize software licenses or other type of stuff, that would go in the balance sheet and go as CapEx, just to be clear. So this is basically also when we speak IC, these are the project teams working with the integration. I should say it's not only IT in this program, generally speaking, neither. It's also to drive out the cost synergies. It's also brand integration, etc. as well. But when it comes to the increase we have seen, that is mainly related to IT. So you're right here from that perspective. There is a CapEx component to this as well. And that would never go as items affecting comparability.
Then you also had a question around wage inflation. Yeah. And Sylvia, can you just repeat the question? Was it how it relates a little bit to last year or what was the kind of, what was the angle?
Yeah, sure. No, just to get an idea of where I guess wage inflation is running out today. And maybe if you can discuss the three regions, the trends can be quite different.
So I think on a general level, if you look at starting in Europe, the wage inflation this year is lower than it was last year. Last year, we were still at somewhat elevated levels. I would still say on the totality, it is at an elevated level if you're comparing with a period going 10, 15 years back. So that's essentially where we are in Europe. If you look at North America, lower wage inflation compared to the previous years. And I think that is coming a little bit on the back of the inflation coming down. It's usually faster, more dynamic in terms of increasing pressure. It comes up faster. Europe is usually lagging when it's coming down. It's also coming down faster because it's, yeah, for the lack of a better expression, it's kind of more supply and demand driven.
But that's also a pretty good thing because there has been fairly low unemployment in North America for a number of years. And I think that's also been to the benefit of many people as well, is that they've also been able to also enjoy higher wage increases for a period of time. But it is at a lower level now. Looking at the Ibero-America, I would say it's more like similar to the kind of the European situation where it's lower than last year, but still somewhat higher level.
Okay, thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Dan Johansson from SEB. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I think I only had one additional one here. That's on major events. You had the Euros now in Germany and now Olympics in France. I was just curious if you believe that helped you somewhat in Europe and you saw good performance in these two important markets or whether you anticipate that could help you now in Q3. Thank you so much.
Yeah, thank you, Dan. I think that there are a couple of smaller kind of one-off positive impacts if you're looking at Europe in Q2 that contribute. I mean, if we mention something, it will typically be like 0.1 on the margin in that type of a range for the European margin. If you're looking at the Olympics, and I think some of that may be related also to the European Championships. If you're looking at the Olympics, we've taken a stance and that's been a clear instruction from my side as well. We need to focus our efforts on our existing clients where we're building long-term value and the relationship. There has clearly been quite a lot of demand, but we are not doing that much. I don't really see that there is going to be much meaningful impact related to the Olympics.
That's more a matter of just really staying disciplined and focusing our efforts, our people and resources where it really matters. There, priority one, two, and three is on existing clients where we have an ongoing long-term relationship.
Okay, very clear. That was all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Raymond Ke from Nordea. Please go ahead.
Hi, my name is Raymond. A couple of questions for me. First out, regarding the increased scope of Stanley integration that you talked about, could you elaborate a bit? In what way has the scope of this integration changed from what you targeted previously?
Thank you for that, Raymond. I think when it comes to the IC program and the increased cost, so the two parts, we have seen some cost pressure, as I mentioned, generally speaking. The second thing is, as we've gone along in the integration, related to our platforms and our IT infrastructure, both in Europe and in North America, we have seen additional opportunities. I mean, to be clear, we did this plan basically two years ago, so it's an evolving landscape. We have also meanwhile said that we need to take a break to make sure that we're also making cost-efficient investments into this program in relation to the transformation program rollout as well. So along those lines, we have seen increased opportunities to continue to do deeper integration in terms of ERP platforms in the technology business and many other IT tools as well.
So it's a complex, it's a lot of different things. It's not one big project per se, but generally speaking, we will come out in a better position after this, having a more robust platform to drive profitability, to drive our operational efficiency across the business. And Raymond, I just want to emphasize what I said before as well. I mean, we know quite well now how we are structuring and how we're operating the technology business. Our team has been doing really, really good work here across North America and many markets in Europe as well. And there, obviously, what we are building now, we're really building for scale and for operational excellence going forward.
And that is also. We've then taken a couple of positive decisions to then say, let's now continue and really drive that to completion because we are able to operate at a completely different level. And that's in client delivery, but it's also in terms of profitability, which is very much driven by the efficiency of the operation. Should also emphasize that, I mean, this is something that I've been open with since the beginning. Before Stanley Security, we acquired a number of different electronic security or technology companies in a number of markets in Europe. Starting point then was quite different as well. So I mean, it's also an opportunity, but also very significant need now to also harmonize how we are working. We harmonize processes, capabilities, the KPIs, and all of that is very much kind of system and applications dependent as well.
We're building a completely different engine now. I think this is something which is really, really promising when you're looking at what we are able to deliver, not only for clients, but also for shareholders in the years to come.
Got it. And then secondly, just looking beyond 2024, and to confirm, you still expect one-offs to decrease sequentially year-over-year from here, right?
Yes, absolutely. So I think what we have said when we had the Capital Markets Day is significant decline in 2024 and then continue to drive that down also in 2025.
When can we expect to get sort of more specific details regarding ISC beyond 2024?
Later this year.
All right. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Viktor Lindeberg from Carnegie Investment Bank. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Three questions from my side. You gave a number, Magnus, in your initial CEO remarks on the SEK 15 billion annualized revenue with high margin. Can you give us a hint of the growth pace that you've seen the past year or two and maybe an expectation also for a run rate, shorter medium term on this nice revenue stream? Second, looking at price wage now being slightly positive in the first half, can you elaborate on this and maybe touch upon that it seemed that you were a bit behind in Europe, at least in Q1, and then you have caught up. And maybe where do you have momentum now going into Q3 given price adjustments and also current contract portfolio? Final one is on North America.
Looking at the mix with technology now coming up as a share of total revenue, it's increasing quite a lot sequentially, also year-over-year, but margins are essentially flat. So looking at this segment and the mix change, is there something ongoing in the guarding margin versus the technology margin, or how should we read this? Thanks.
Thanks, Viktor. So when looking at the reason that I highlighted the recurring revenue, it's that this is obviously an important quality aspect of the business. It includes monitoring maintenance. So essentially, the longer-term relationship that we have, whether it's a higher predictability, but also a higher profitability level. And for that reason, it's an important KPI. Clear positive development looking at the last 12 months. We don't break out specific numbers, but this is something we feel comfortable with. There is also a certain relationship, obviously, to healthy overall installations growth because when we do that well, we're typically very well positioned to also then play a more long-term relationship, which then has a positive impact on the recurring revenue. So I think, yeah, clear positive is the answer in terms of the growth rate.
Looking at price wage, this is obviously in the guarding part of the business, very important activity and also something that we need to manage. We are slightly positive here in the first six months, and that's obviously very important. This is also something that I feel that we've managed really well in the higher inflationary period that we saw in terms of wage inflation over the last couple of years and also managing well at this point in time and good confidence in terms of the remainder of the year when you're looking at price wage. Looking at North America, I wouldn't interpret too much there. Lower growth means a little bit lower leverage, obviously, from an indirect cost perspective. But we are in good shape in terms of our North America guarding business. We are winning a significant amount of business.
We feel good about the opportunities and the pipeline going forward. So expectation is good growth and also continued profitability development in the North American business. But it is important when you compare it, obviously, to the other regions. We are significantly above the profitability versus Europe, especially. So the growth that we are driving in North America is obviously creative also to the margin target overall if you're linking it to the 8%. But we feel good in terms of where we are, the business and our capabilities and also the outlook. On the price wage, I would also definitely link it to the successful APM work or active portfolio management work that we see across as well, where obviously one solution to increase profitability is to raise prices also without the corresponding wage increase or in the combination of the two.
So that, I would say, is also one of the key drivers why we have been successful in managing that balance this year as well. A lot of great work by the teams on raising prices to increase margins.
Thank you. Maybe if you may just follow up on that, Andreas and Magnus, on the different regions. You have a client retention in the U.S. or in North America that is close to 85% and just above 90% in Europe. And looking at your, I guess it's a delicate balance on price increases versus client retention. But have you been more forward-leaning in price increases in the US? I mean, there are many moving bits and pieces on why client retention is different. But could it be actually better to lower this retention rate to operate more with your profitability targets? More philosophical than hard numbers, maybe.
Yeah. No, and I think two perspectives on that. There is quite a sizable impact from the terminated aviation contracts when you're looking at that number. So I mean, I would normally say, Viktor, that if we are in the 90%, 91%, 92% range, there we're typically doing quite well. That's also where I believe we average if we're looking over the long term. That's an important indication because you can also correlate that very clearly to the customer satisfaction. So I think that is number one. Then obviously, we are driving very, very hard focus on achieving the 8%. But I also want to say, I mean, just to reiterate what I mentioned before is that the profitability profile is different in North America, significantly higher level. We are here to maximize shareholder value.
So I mean, we're also then constantly thinking in terms of how do we optimize that for the mid and the long term. So it's temporarily a lower number from my perspective and not so much to be worried about. The pipeline is strong. We have good confidence in terms of the commercial activity. And I also expect that we're going to see improving growth numbers in the next couple of quarters, but also see that retention coming up.
Okay. Thanks.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Allen Wells from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hey, good afternoon, Magnus. Good afternoon, guys. Just a couple of follow-ups from me. Firstly, just on the margin, obviously 30 basis points of margin improvement seen in the quarter. If I annualize out the SEK 50 million of synergies and I adjust for the impact of Argentina, to me, it suggests that the underlying margins in the business were broadly flat, maybe even down slightly, depending on what assumptions I put up on there. But as you say in the statement, the price wage balance is positive, which suggests it's probably more positive in Q2. I think you said it was neutral in Q1. You should also have had some positive mixed benefits from active portfolio management. So I'm just trying to understand why the underlying margin in this business is not improving, or are there particular things that are going against it? That'll be my first question.
And then maybe just a couple of kind of short financial ones. The D&A, I think when I look at the cash flow statement, is about 30 basis points lower year-on-year. CapEx is lower as well. Just wanted to just check with you, is this level sustainable, or will that need to increase at some point? I'm just mindful of the capital intensity of the tech business and growth there. And then on the one-offs as well, so to go back to this, but if I look at the one-offs, you talked about a SEK 1.5 billion kind of cost to deliver at the time of the announcement. I think when I add the numbers up now, it's like 2.1, I think. So 25% increase. How do we think about the payback here on that additional spend that's going below the line?
You mentioned it was about driving out synergies on the platform, etc., but the synergy number obviously isn't going up. So is this just a net lower number, or should we see an increase or a more higher likelihood of getting to that 8% target? That'll be the third question. Thank you.
Thank you. If I start with the second one, which was clearly related to cash flow and CapEx, we're coming in at 2.8% CapEx to sales in the quarter. We will be below 3% this year. And so that is a sustainable run rate. On your comment there related to the technology business, the technology business in itself is not more CapEx-heavy. The main organic CapEx driver we have is in the solutions business, where you can say we have a CapEx investment of 4%-5% of sales. Here, there is also good material in the capital markets today. So what is true, though, is that the technology business has a higher working capital requirement than in the guarding business.
Then when it comes to the margin question, a bit challenging, honestly, not seeing your assumption to comment that there is no underlying margin performance outside $50 million in Argentina divestment. I'm happy to look at this closer separately. But overall, we see positive impact in the quarter in Europe. We have good development in the airport business. We see good development in our guarding business as well. And we've also been driving good development in our North America and Ibero-America business. So happy to take the details on the side, but would not agree with the statement that it's only related to Argentina and cost synergies. Then when it comes to the one-off cost, again, the SEK 2.1 million, I don't fully recognize. But yes, this is an increase, what I mentioned here earlier in the call, correct related to that.
I think investing this into our IT integration platform, which will make our operations, our client position stronger, this will definitely bring value, and it will support us growing the global technology business. It will help us to drive much more operational execution. So from that point of view, I mean, this is a simple investment to be done, to be honest. And it's also an important one for us to get to our 8% journey, that we are delivering really good quality to our clients, can follow up financial performance, etc. as well. So it was a simple decision from that point of view.
I guess just to be clear, the additional spend is required to get to 8% rather than additive to the 8%.
In the end, what we are investing into here is to strengthen up our technology business with really strong platforms. That is an important driver for us to continue to grow the technology business and drive the operating model in that business.
Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from Karl-Johan Bonnevier from DNB Markets. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon, Magnus and Andreas. Just coming back a little to the active portfolio management. When you look at that, what you're doing in that area today, maybe compared to what you did one or two years ago, how do you see the clients reacting to price initiatives today? Is the retention rate better, and they're more willing to discuss price increases? And maybe you're seeing less of a churn coming out of that than you probably expected to start with.
Yeah, so thanks, Karl-Johan. This has been quite a mindset shift and mindset change internally as well as externally because, as I commented over the last couple of years, there has been way too much volume focus in this industry and not enough quality focus when you're looking at quality margin and profitability. And I think that everyone has to take certain responsibility for that. But this is obviously something we are actively driving a change. I would say that if you're looking at last year, we had a few key markets. I mean, in North America, we're largely done in terms of active portfolio management, and it's also more dynamic. There's more focus now in Europe and in Ibero-America. Last year, we had a couple of countries where we started to really make good progress.
We follow that up, obviously, in terms of our gross margin development so that we're seeing what is the profitability down to individual contract level. We had a few countries then. What's starting to happen now is that more and more countries are really starting to drive clear improvement. And this is something I've commented on before. I have not been happy with the pace of the change. I would have liked this to happen earlier. Now it's starting to happen on a broader base. And I would say that as a rule, rather than an exception, the clients usually want to keep Securitas as their partner. So while it's been a new situation over the last couple of years to kind of address this in a firm but still humble way, this is increasingly successful as well.
But I think it's also been a matter of us also having to shift a lot more on the focus on the real value and the difference that we are delivering. So I would say that the good thing now is that it's happening on a broader scale. We still have work to be done in Europe, in Ibero-America, but we're also actively thinking about how do we also then leverage many good client relationships to also then convert into something which is either more profitable or more technology opportunities, for example, where we can also help the clients, but also create a healthier overall profile in terms of the profitability. And there we're making pretty good progress now. There's good momentum in the first half of this year.
We still have important work here in Europe to be done in the second half and also in the first half for next year. So that's really where we are. But it is a very important shift. We need to get that work done because this is all about just running a healthy business and a healthy value-generating business. And I feel that the confidence level is increasing in the organization.
I guess it also sounds very healthy if this active portfolio management is not really turning into an increasing churn rate at the end of the day.
Yeah, you're right. That's why I say it's rather the rule that we are keeping clients, but that significantly then improved and healthier margins, essentially. That's what it all is coming down to because that also enables us to dedicate resources to make sure that we can invest in the relationship and the delivery, and then we create happier clients through better service, but also better conditions, also and financial results.
Just also pick your brain a little on the 8% and the 10% target you have talked about for the long term. If you first look at the 8% target, do you envisage that the aviation business and critical infrastructure business is still part of the business to be and you're able to deliver towards the 8% target?
Yeah, so we have been clear. I mean, I don't comment on any specific speculation here in terms of potential investments. We have included, and I think also communicated in March that strategic assessments also do play a role when you're looking at the bridge towards the 8%. And we just wanted to be clear also in terms of how we're looking at that. These are obviously different sources or parts of the bridge journey when you're comparing where we are currently to achieving 8% by the end of next year. And yeah, it's a mix of the different initiatives and actions that we are taking.
If you maybe.
Sorry. Sorry, Karl-Johan. You had a question also on the 10%.
Exactly, exactly. No, if you look at then maybe raising the bar up towards 10%, how much, say, active or more portfolio management do you need to do to envisage that? Obviously, your performance in North America is already showing the way to some extent.
The way I look at this is that we need to set an ambitious target to get to 8%. We have full focus on making that happen. That is really to also be able to make a significant shift to ensure that the business that we have, it's a healthy business, and it's also aligned with the long-term strategy and vision that we have. It's too early to talk about the journey beyond that one. I think the most important is that when we have achieved that, we will also have a completely different shape of the business. We are then looking at, and that's something I'm discussing quite a lot with Andreas already now as well.
How do we also then maximize shareholder value in terms of a healthy growth, healthy profitability profile, healthy cash generation, and the growth in cash and earnings per share to really be able to drive that and maximize the value based on the new shape of the company? But then it should also be said, technology is going to play a significantly more important part. Our digital efforts will also play an important part because those are also more scalable, more knowledge-based products and services, and they will also have to deliver a meaningful impact as well in terms of the longer-term journey towards the 10%. But main focus internally and also in the dialogue with you is really ensuring that we continue to now drive improvement and that we deliver the 8%.
Excellent. Thank you very much and all the best out there.
Thank you.
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad. Please state your name and company. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hello, it's Neil Tyler from Redburn Atlantic. Quick one follow-up from me, please, around the margin trajectory again. Specifically on the technology and solutions business that you're bringing in and the contracts that you're accumulating there, I want to really ask about the operating leverage there. Does this business accrue at a normalized margin more or less immediately, or are you finding ways of improving the profitability of the contracts once they're up and running and as they age? So is it a case really of more mature business lifting its own margin on a sort of unit-by-unit basis? Thank you.
Thank you. So if you look into the technology and solutions business and break it out a bit and start by looking at the solutions business, there are no startup costs or the like. Normally, you have fairly stable profitability throughout the first contract lifecycle. Then throughout the longer term with these clients, normally we improve profitability as we are then renewing these contracts after three years, going into the next three years. And that is basically because we are normally investing into technology in these contracts. And when you renew those contracts, you do some upgrades, you refresh the equipment, but it's not the same kind of investments as initially. So that is how the profitability generally looked like in the solutions business.
When it comes to technology, I mean, 60% of that business is then our installation business, where we are basically then installing and integrating CCTV access control at the client site. And the profitability there is very much up to really strong project management to make sure it happens. And if you have strong project management over the project lifecycle, you will have a fairly stable profitability also in that business. But if you don't, you will have more fluctuations. Then the other part of the technology business is our monitoring and maintenance business. And that is very, like Magnus has mentioned here, high margin, stable business, long good client retentions, and also very good from a cash flow perspective, as normally you are invoicing in advance in those type of businesses or with shorter payment terms as well.
Thank you. That's very helpful.
Please state your name and company. Please go ahead.
I think it's me. Correct? Can you hear me? Hello?
Yes. Can you please state your name?
Yes, sorry. Laurent Saglio, Zadig Asset Management. I share the company and we're very attentive to the good results too.
Hello, Laurent. Now I recognize your voice.
That's good. I have a little bit of a French accent. Yeah, you stated restructuring should ease as of at the end of the year. Can you give me an idea of the magnitude in 2025 and beyond? And on the second question, which is on the technology, do you think AI will help you to come up with some product with some value added and better margin for you? That's my second question. Thanks.
Thank you. When it comes to the IC, the message remains, as we mentioned here in the Capital Markets Day, where we said that we do expect IC to reduce going into 2025 compared to 2023. And at that point in time, the estimate for the 2024, sorry, for the 2024 was SEK 550 million. And we also expected to continue to decrease thereafter in 2026. So from the SEK 550 million based in 2024, we expected to go down next year. Yes. Looking at AI, Laurent.
That's a good one.
That will come back to later on. We have not gone out with that number. And then related to AI, Laurent, I mean, we have been investing quite a lot in terms of digital and software capabilities with machine learning and AI for the last five, six years. So we've also had a chance to learn quite a lot. Yes, there will be clear areas where we can apply AI. I think when you're looking at the not only at the technology business, but already doing it with success in terms of optimizing our large-scale operations for efficiency optimization, for example, I think that is one. I also expect when you're looking at monitoring-based, for example, I mean, we are monitoring millions of sensors on a 24/7 basis. There is clearly a lot also in that space where this will be meaningful.
And here, I think we just have to be smart as well in terms of piloting and testing, yes, but also thinking about what do we do and develop ourselves and where can we also leverage good solutions also from partners. So clearly on the agenda and clearly opportunities as well. And I think this is also coming back to one very important aspect. And I mean, we had some discussions in terms of technology integration, really driving integration in terms of modern platforms, etc. We could only dream about leveraging AI at scale when we have strong modern platforms and also good data management, for example. If you don't have that, there is no way that you're going to be able to leverage new algorithms or AI technology at scale.
I think this is another reason that everything that we are building as well. It's really going 10 years ago, you can say we had everything almost locally in Securitas. Everything that we have been building for the last five, six years have always been with the intention of building scalable solutions that we can also leverage at scale. That is an important aspect also when we look at AI opportunities going forward.
Absolutely. Thank you.
Thank you.
There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the President and CEO, Magnus Ahlqvist, for any closing comments.
Very good. Thanks a lot, everyone, for good and insightful questions as always. Thanks for your interest in Securitas. Also taking the opportunity, everyone in the northern hemisphere, I know many people also going on vacation, so enjoy the summer holidays and looking forward to seeing you soon. Thank you.