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Presentation of the bank's result for the full year and for Q4 2023. We put behind us a tumultuous year with escalating geopolitical instability, raising interest rates, and also runaway inflation and a business cycle in decline. I find that the year for Handelsbanken 2023 can be described as stable. ROE was up to close to 16%, driven of an underlying growth of 37%, income outperformed expenses and contributed to our CI ratio. As expected, our customers show good resilience in spite of an environment with higher interest rates, and the credit quality remains to be strong, with credit losses amounting to only 0.01%. The capital position of the bank is very solid, with a CET1 ratio of 18.8 percentage points, which is one percentage point above the target range of the bank, under normal circumstances that is .
1.3 percentage points above regulatory requirements. The robust financial position makes it possible for the board to propose a total dividend of 13 SEK per share, 50% of that, 6.5 SEK per share, is an extraordinary dividend. Over the year 2023, we've offered our customers, strengthened our customer offering in physical, digital channels we have in our local branches, expanded our competencies, capacities, and mandate, and at the same time, we're improving our app and the web. The customer satisfaction we see in the ratings that we have, it has gone up even further according to independent external surveys. And not only is the bank's robust business model, credit quality, and financial position is reflected in the ranking as being one of the most stable banks according to leading rating agencies, so the bank has a position of strength.
Looking at the results for the full year 2023, we can find that ROE was up to just under 16%. Total income was up with 24%, mainly due to the high interest rate situation, which has led to return on equity and liquidity reserves going up, as the Swedish Riksbanken increased its interest rates, in spite of lower margins for mortgages. Expenses underlying 8%, and that is explained with the development capacities increasing, and, well, since end of 2022, it's been stable. We've also increased our resources within AML and cyber risk, and of course, 2023 has been a year with a generally high inflation and increased costs in all our home markets. CI ratio was down to 37.2%, credit loss is low, SEK 141 million, and that corresponds to a credit loss ratio of 0.01%.
All in all, we had operated profit going up with 37% to some SEK 36 billion, which is the highest ever for the bank. Continuing with the Q4 2023, profit was down somewhat compared to Q3. This is due to seasonal higher costs, ROE 15.2%, NII 2% adjusted for FX. Net fee commission income stayed more or less the same. Total income, adjusted for FX, was down with 1%. And compared to the previous quarter, we have to remember that NFT was unusually strong. Expenses were up 7% due to seasonal variations, and the CI ratio was up to 38%. For the third quarter, consecutively, we had a credit loss ratio of 0%. All in all, the operating profit was down somewhat.
And then if we look at our NII for the quarter, we see that it was up 2%, I've already mentioned that, adjusted for FX. Volumes has stayed relatively neutral, which is natural when we see a crunch in monetary policy and a slowdown in the business cycle. We've also seen that the amortization rate for private and the corporate customers remain at a historically seen relatively high levels. So our customers act in a rational manner. They amortize as much as they can. Another pattern that we have seen for some time now, and in the quarter, we had the final settlement for the fee of deposit guarantee that contributed with SEK 97 million. The adjusted NII is explained by the margins recovering compared to the previous quarter, but it is clear that they leveled out over the fall.
...Net fee commission income, apart from the pandemic period, it has been growing steadily. Savings related business is 2/3 of the net fee commission income, and we see the same trend that we have for 1.5 years. In spite of volatile stock exchanges, we have a stable net inflow from our customers who want to save their money with us. If we look at the savings business in Sweden, we see that we have a long positive trend, and that we've had since 2010, if I remember correctly, and it stays strong. Our market share of mutual funds in Sweden is about 12%. But since 2010, as I've said, we have had a market share of around 25% of the net inflow that we've seen in the market for savings in funds.
The savings business is, and will remain, a very important growth engine for the bank, and we see that this is something that builds a stable value over time. It's good for our customers. In addition to good performance in our funds, another success factor has been that our customers appreciated that we have a sustainability focus. Today, 95% of the fund volume that we offer is categorized in the two highest categories in the SFDR under the disclosure requirements that we have in Articles 8 and 9. Another important explanation for the success of the bank is that we have a strong way of reaching our customers with digital services, but also local strong branches in our home markets, and savings advisory services, a natural part of the customer meeting.
Particularly for a private, private banking customer, a good relationship with the, the bank is decisive. Of course, all private banking customers do not necessarily live in our major cities, where we traditionally have had, these services. Many of these existing and potential customers, they're in other parts of the country. That is why we, the last few years, have strengthened our local personal offerings so that customers can now meet, for example, a private banker advisor locally, local branches where they live or work. This might seem elementary, but it is a way of working that stands out in the market today, and we see that it drives, the inflow, customer satisfaction, and business for the bank.
When it comes to expenses, they were up by barely 7% and follow the normal seasonal pattern, where we usually see a rise in costs in Q4 as a consequence of the development of profitability in the bank. Compared to our competitors during the quarter, we allocated 83 million kronor to Oktogonen, and this effect was basically entirely balanced by positive ex-FX effects of 85 million kronor. The staff costs, adjusted for currency and Oktogonen contributed by 2% to the total increase in costs, and other costs were up as a usual consequence of higher activity compared to the preceding quarter that included the summer months. If we look at net credit losses, they are almost nonexistent. At the same time, the management add-on remained unchanged over the quarter and amounted to just over 600 million.
Handelsbanken has historically, especially in periods of economic decline, reported significantly lower net credit losses than the rest of the banking industry. That is not a coincidence. It is a result of the structure of our lending portfolio and a consistent, strict approach to risk. Also, the business model with a strong local presence with a decentralized operating mode means that the bank can identify situation at an early stage and take action when necessary, and we are very confident in the quality of our lending portfolio. We can describe the bank as having five parts. We have our four at-home markets, and then we have the central functions that have as their ultimate responsibility to provide support and to our business and ensure compliance.
If we start by looking at the UK, they now represent 17% of the group operating profit, and the CI ratio is just below 48%, and return on allocated capital is 21%. The UK is the country where we have the highest level of customer satisfaction and an offering that really stands out on the local market. Local decision-making and accessibility to advice experts is very rare in the U.K. now, and recently we've seen a strong recovery in our profits, but at the same time, we see a decline both in private and corporate lending. The degree of amortization continues to be high, and the demand for new loans on the market remains low in general. The strong credit rating of the bank, however, continues to contribute to good inflows of corporate deposits that were up by 3% over the year.
Going forward, our focus is to continue to upgrade our offering, in our digital offering, and to continue to always enhance a local competence in our offices around the U.K.. Today, we hold a very small market share, and we have great potential to grow significantly over time, but we never scramble to, get volume. We don't have short-term incentives like bonus. We don't stress to create volume. We work with a long-term approach and focus on creating strong, good relationships with local customers, and that's how we maintain our strong credit, quality, growth, and profitability over time. If we now look at Norway, Norway represents just over 7% of the operating profit in the group. The CI ratio is 44%, and return on allocated capital is just over 9%.
In recent years, we have significantly invested in IT and business development to enhance our digital offering... to extend our very much appreciated advisory services in our offices. We have a strong credit portfolio in Norway, and customer satisfaction is high, and we've made significant progress and it comes to enhancing our offering. But we've had to up our staffing, especially within AML and IT development in recent years, which has had an impact on the CI ratio and the return on allocated capital. The next step is now to increase our focus on enhancing profitability in Norway, and therefore, we have undertaken an overview where we will, on a regular basis, see where there's potential to increase profitability.
When we look at the Netherlands, that represents 3% of the group operating profit, and the CI ratio is 47%, and return on allocated capital is 17%. In the Netherlands, our operations are somewhat niche, where we focus on mortgages and financing of real estate. When we look to the future, the plan is to continue to operate a relatively simple, focused, and profitable operation. In Sweden, Sweden today represents three-quarters of the group operating profit. The CI ratio is 28%, and the return on allocated capital is 18% for the full year 2023. Over the year, we have continued to enhance our customer offering by increase in resources, competence, and decision-making power in our advisory services across our 206 offices in Sweden.
At the same time, our savings business is growing, as I mentioned before, but we have somewhat declining volumes on the market overall, both in lending and deposits, both in corporate and households. Of course, this has an impact. In the Swedish organization, we can see that we can improve efficiency in the business support aspects, and this is addressed by having a new organization for those central parts of our operation, which will be put into place in coming months. Last week, I received a telephone call for our manager in Gothenburg, who had decided to do something as strange as opening a new banking office, and I thought that sounded amazing, and the new office will be in Hovås in Gothenburg.
And if you know where that is, you just get in your car, you take your bicycle, and you go ten kilometers to the south on 158 road, and then on the south, you can see new Hovås. This decision was of course based on great demand from the customers, and therefore a great business potential for the bank to place our advisor in that local setting. Sometimes people think that digitalization has made local banking obsolete. I'm convinced that the opposite is true. There is absolutely no issue with a customer wanting to do their banking business on their own in the app and using all the digital channels available to them. But at times, you want personal advice from a human being, a local specialist, an expert.
Perhaps you want to discuss your first mortgage or get expert advice on savings, banking, pensions, risk management, or corporate transactions. I think that the local and digital offering, that they complement each other very well. And our enhanced offer to enhance local offices and digital offering is now an even greater competitive edge than before, and we can see that reflected in the high level of customer satisfaction. In 150 years, we've always adapted to customers' demand and wishes when it comes to where and how we meet and interact, and it's an obviously important thing to the bank to this day, and that is why we've opened this new branch in Hovås.
Finally, when it comes to central aspects of the bank, after the strategic shift in last year's, where the bank has left countries and markets where we don't see enough potential for profitability and growth, it's now natural to increase our focus on making central parts of the bank more efficient and to consolidate them. Our tradition is based on a simple organization without unnecessary structures and inefficiency and decentralized responsibility. To avoid inefficiency and unnecessary costs, we really have to be mindful of our costs like any other business. We've now launched an overview to identify and take action against costs in our central functions, and therefore, we will enhance our competitive edge.
As a consequence of the strong financial position and generation of capital, the board now proposes to the AGM an ordinary dividend of SEK 6.5 per share and an extra dividend of SEK 6.5 per share. So in total, SEK 13 per share. Significant geopolitical tension and macroeconomic uncertainty is a fact. To ensure that the market trusts us as an attractive and stable counterpart with a full capacity to meet potential increase in credit demand, the assessment is that in the current situation, it is motivated to have a CET1 ratio that is higher than the bank's normal target range with 1.3 percentage points above regulatory requirement. The CET1 ratio, after deducting the proposed dividend, amounted to 18.8%, which corresponded to four percentage points above the FSA minimum requirement.
To adapt the bank's capital level to the usual target range of the bank, our intention is to accept anticipated dividends to align the CET1 ratio at 4.0 percentage points above the regulatory requirement. Finally. The bank stands strong, and that is crucial to build and cultivate customer relations and drive growth over time and to build stable shareholder value over time. It appears that in the year 2023, we'll again reach our goal to have higher profitability compared to the average of comparable markets in home markets. And we handle expenses with discipline, and we will increase our focus on this in coming years. The customers show their appreciation for us. And last but not least, our credit quality is good as it should be, in spite of upheaval in the world around us.
And that means that we continue with the long-term stable trend we've seen for many years, with an average value creating per year of almost 15% for our shareholders. So thank you very much for listening to me. And now we will take a short break before we go to the Q&A. Thank you for now.
Welcome back, everyone, to the Q&A session. Present at this call are Michael Green, CEO, Carl Cederschiöld, CFO, and myself, Peter Grabe, Head of Investor Relations. Before commencing the session, we would express our usual reminder that we appreciate if you limit your questions to one at a time per person. This, in order for all participants to get the opportunity to ask questions. Of course, you're welcome to step back in the queue for follow-ups. With those words, we hand back to the operator as we're ready to take on the first question.
Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. We will now go to the first question. One moment, please. And your first question comes from the line of Magnus Andersson from ABGSC. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi. Good morning, and thanks, first of all, for the increased clarity on capital and the target there for the end of 2024. I was just wondering, I mean, you keep 100 basis points extra management buffer above your target interval due to an uncertain environment. If I look at your own economist forecasts for 2025, they expect around 2% GDP growth. In such an environment, should we then expect you to go down to your ordinary interval in 2025? And related to that, if the environment would improve, start to improve significantly in the second half, I mean, your interval now is 200-400, could you be a bit more. Could you be adapting your level towards the end of this year already, depending on how things evolve in the second half? Thanks.
Thanks, Magnus, for the question. Well, I think the bank has obviously proven for many decades that we like to run a very conservative and long-term approach. So, so we think it's definitely reasonable to run with plus one at this time. We will review this decision yearly. But it, for us, it is really important to put us in a position where we are the most stable bank, where we can be viewed from rating agencies, from media, from clients, from all of the society to be the most stable bank. So what... Yearly, we will review it. It's hard for us to make a comment on what kind of numbers we need to see to drop it back to the normal, but the normal range is still one to three.
Okay, and in terms of risk-weighted asset trajectory, then, could you help us a bit with the building blocks there in terms of volume, migration, Basel IV? And, we've discussed the IRB model implementation in the UK in the past.
Yes.
How that could develop.
Yes. Thanks for that question as well. Well, first of all, obviously, volumes, you're as good as we are at projecting them, so... But obviously, we have seen slow growth lately. But we'll see what happens if rate drops back to lower levels once again. Going into the more technical details, yes, we've seen quite a large negative migration on volumes to Stage 2. That has meant that most likely we'll have recalibration of the model, implying lower RWAs, all else equal. As we've guided on before, we don't see any major headwinds going into Basel IV, and we don't have any change in that one. When it comes to the IRB of UK, yes, as we've been guiding on, we're working on that one, and the best estimate is that we might have some difference in 2026.
So we can't foresee any major headwind in RWA going into this year.
Oh, okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will now go to the next question. Your next question comes from the line of Nicolas McBeath from DNB. Please go ahead.
Good morning. So, a question on, to Michael on strategy. So given your long history with Handelsbanken, would be interesting to hear your view on what of the traditional distinguishing features of the Handelsbanken model you think are worth preserving also today, and what is not really relevant or optimal in this more digitized banking industry? So I, I'm thinking of old ideas of Jan Wallander, such as the absence of budgets and business plans, having profit centers at the branch office level and, a slow-moving and cautious approach to IT investments.
Right. So, thank you for the question. So if you look back on how we've built a profitable bank and a very, you know, with a very strong balance sheet, it all starts with the ability and the skill to choose the right customers. And we've done that with a strong focus on our branches and our way of perform business on a local level. So my view is that to be able to deliver satisfied customers and understand which customers we will bank with, it starts in a branch, and that's how we also steer the bank.
But obviously, and that's a given. We also, in addition to that, we obviously have to have strong digital solutions for our customers, and we do have that. So I'm more into the strengthen our decentralized local banking approach. And I think in general terms, right now, when we see such a difficult times for many in many countries and in Sweden as well, we see a strong need from our customers to really meet with a living person, to speak with him or her about issues that they might have. So, to comfort and also give the right solutions to customers in this environment, which is quite difficult, actually.
We've noticed that the demand for person-to-person discussions in terms of savings and also how to manage their mortgage situation or their housing issues, and for corporates also to discuss with us locally with our broad competence in our branches and also with the specialists giving the good advice for their business going forward. So strong, decentralized decision-taking locally, strong customer focus, long-term relationships, and the ability and the right to choose the customer that suits us best, where we can be really interested to do business from a customer perspective. And that's normally corporates with strong balance sheets and a good, strong P&L. On the private side, people who have a larger economic environment around them than a normal regular person. That's normally how it works with us, so more of that.
Okay, perfect. Thank you.
Sorry, I might add also, we also need to be cautious about our cost. All companies need to manage cost very prudent, and we need to strengthen ourselves a bit there to be more prudent and very careful about the cost we need for, and really focus on the things that make sense for customers, going forward.
Thank you. We will now go to our next question. The next question comes from the line of Andreas Håkansson from SEB. Please go ahead.
Thanks and morning, everyone. So a question to Mr. Green again. On the cost side, you said that you need to look at central costs. Could you tell us a little bit, is it... I mean, we've seen quite a bit of IT projects over the last couple of years. We've seen some business lines growing, that's more central units, and then we've seen staff numbers picking up in the total group. But can you tell us a little bit, what type of areas is it that you are going after? And if it's just central staff, how big is that number today? What's the potential actually on only that staff, or is it some bigger cuts that are needed to bring costs down?
Right. So thank you for the question, Andreas, and first of all, we've been through a couple of years now where we've focused the bank. We've exited a number of international business and we've also remade, if you put it that way, the Swedish and the U.K. business, where we went from regions to counties and districts. And we've done that to strengthen our local offering, as I just mentioned before, and we will continue to do that. But we've not really coming to our head office department.
So I think it's very natural for us now and rational to take it to that area as well. So what we've done and communicated this morning is that I will still, as the CEO of the bank, still be operational responsible for the Swedish business. And by doing that, we will enable the group central departments and the Swedish central departments to merge and to make sure that they will take out work that's been done in both areas and also focus on what needs to be delivered from a central department. And that's gonna be done in five of our central departments.
On top of that, you're focusing a little bit on the IT side. We've now also given the mandate to the head of IT to really look into and work with how much output the bank needs to go forward. And as you mentioned, we've been increasing our investment in IT over the last couple of years. I will not be surprised if we will slow down that a little bit due to the fact that we need to make sure that all the development we do is customer-focused as much as we can, and also is done in an efficient way and also on the demand of the business. So we'll see what's gonna happen there. So t hat's gonna be one of the tasks for him to go, going forward.
Do you think that later on this year, maybe time of the Q1, Q2, that you will come out with somewhat of a more formal plan, restructuring plan, or is it just gonna be, quarter by quarter, we see small improvements?
When I grew up in the bank, and we had a cost situation, which we're in a slightly different way than it is right now, we were very good at actually working on a day-to-day with our cost side, being very cautious. I would not foresee that I will come back with a number in cost and in headcount. That's gonna be something we work on from a day-to-day business, but I will ensure you that we will have a stronger focus on that side going forward this year. But it's not gonna be any numbers as far as I see it.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We will now go to the next question. Your next question comes from the line of... One moment, please. Sofie Peterzens from JP Morgan, please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, this is Sophie from JP Morgan. So, just staying on the cost comment. So, I guess we're not going to see any cost targets or any big kind of cost plans being announced, but how should we think about kind of restructuring costs, intangible costs, and kind of also there has been quite a lot of press articles around cybersecurity fraud. How are you addressing these, and should we kind of expect any one-off cost items to come in in the coming quarters? And also just a follow-up on the 4% capital buffer. Does the 4% capital buffer have anything to do with your credit rating? I noticed that one of your... or one of the rating agencies has a kind of negative outlook for you. So is there any correlation between the 4% buffer and your credit ratings? Thank you.
Thanks, Sophie, for the question. Well, as Michael said, I mean, we're really gonna work a lot with the cost culture and bring it back, but we will try to do that gradually. So you shouldn't foresee any number coming out, restructuring package, et cetera. Time will tell. And yes, of course, cybersecurity and all of this, the total FCP area is an area, obviously, where banks will invest quite a bit. So of course, we will keep working on that one, but that will be included in the rest as well. No, the 4%, you shouldn't view that as any view on the negative credit watch at all. It's just to run the bank very long-term, conservative. I mean, we obviously have a history of not needing to...
Our balance sheet, we've been able to support our balance sheet fully internally, and that's really what we wanna do. So we wanna place ourselves in a position where we, when things normalize, then we'll go down towards the normal target range, but until then, we think it's feasible to run with the 1 percentage points above it.
But, the credit rating agencies, or at least one of them, as far as I understand, is quite unhappy with your very low Stage 3 coverage, which again fell and now is only 16%. We should not view this low Stage 3 coverage in conjunction with the 4% buffer?
I don't. That's not my view as you're posting it. Our view is that we have a very good discussion with the credit agencies. Yes, of course, they were putting us on a negative watch when the overall macroclimate within the world and within the real estate sector were troublesome. Our discussions with all of the rating agencies has been extremely constructive, so you shouldn't put any correlation to any Stage 3 reserves in that.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take the next question. Your next question comes from the line of Namita Samtani from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, when you map out Handelsbanken's business in Sweden, Norway, U.K., and the Netherlands, and by business product, where do you see the growth potential for the business in the next year or two? I guess I'm asking this because I wonder if you're gonna do a proper strategic review of the businesses and not just it's the cost. And secondly, just to Michael, are you, are you gonna have time to be both the CEO and to look after the Swedish division? Thanks very much.
Well, thank you. I'll start with the last question, and I've... As you probably are aware of, many of you, we've if you look back in the history of the bank. And most of the time, the CEO has also been head of the Swedish business, so that's nothing new for us. It's just a kind of a normal way of taking care of the business. And but of course, I'm not a superhero, so I need to have help, and I do have that. So we will arrange for and structure people around me so they can help me in the day-to-day business area.
But I will also say—I would also like to say that almost all of the business is taken care locally and around the country, in the country. It's not that we don't work where so, so sorry. The way we work is not that everything has to come up to the CEO for decision. That's not the way we do it. So people are very skilled in decision-making since many years, and they do it in a very good way locally. So I would presume that the day-to-day questions or business from my perspective is gonna be very few because they're so very well-trained and very skilled, and they know their customers so well out in our branches, so that's not gonna be an issue. Now, back to the first question. I almost lost that. It was the,
Growth perspective.
Growth perspective. Yeah, first of all, I think banking, in general, will grow based on the expansion of the real economy, and it's very macro, and the macro is very important now when we grow. But we can also of course, do our best we can in terms of getting more customers on board and work with all the products and the solutions that we offer them all around in our home markets. And as you can see on the slide, we the market share in the U.K. are fairly low right now, so we do have a potential there to grow. That's my opinion, and also in the Netherlands.
Norway, we have announced, as I said, we need to work through the business structure in Norway, so they will come out in a more with higher return on equity than they perform right now. So it depends a little bit on what you mean by growing. We will always grow with profitability, so we're not volume chasers. So we need to really make sure that we go for the right customers, with the right solutions, and we do it in a cost-efficient way over here.
Thanks very much. Thank you. We'll now take the next question. The next question comes from the line of Rickard Strand from Nordea. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Following on, on the cost there, you mentioned, Michael, that you're currently doing a review of your Norwegian business. Maybe a small follow-up there, if you could just mention if it's primarily related to also support functions or if it has a broader scope in that review?
Sorry, I did, I didn't get the last sentence. Come again.
If it's the Norwegian review
Right
... if it's primarily related to the support functions or if it has a broader scope of that?
No. I think, yeah, when you grow the bank over the years, it's so important that we do it with a profitability that comes along with it. So we need to make sure that we have a balance sheet that's in balance, and you know that we grow, profitability comes mostly from the savings side and the mutual fund side. So I think, I'm not gonna go into details where what they need to do in Norway. But in general, and especially in Norway, we need to find out a way that we balance the product needs that we deliver so we can grow with profitability. And that's a work that's gonna be needed to be done in the next couple of months.
Thanks. And then a follow-up on a more nitty-gritty question on slide five in the presentations on the margin of funding and contribution on NII of the SEK 245 million Q&Q. If you could possibly add some flavor to the subcomponents here in terms of lending margin development versus deposit margins in the quarter?
Yeah. As you know, we never disclose a split between lending margins and deposit margins, and it's simply because they are interconnected. So they're both moving parts, so we don't guide on that detailed level, unfortunately.
Okay, but is it possible to say anything about the sort of larger moving parts, broadly speaking?
Yes, we can definitely say some parts of around it. I mean, we've as of in the end of the year, obviously, we've seen slow growth. So the volume contribution has been fairly slow. Then when it comes to the marginal development, we still see that NII hasn't topped. It is feasible, yes, to expect it to top at these rate levels. Time will tell. We've I move a bit around the volumes and margins now, but we've seen obviously that the deposit volumes moves fairly much in line with the lower demand for loans, so that's all good. And, yeah, I mean, a s we've been saying before, if rates start moving down, we think there will be movements around the lending margins and deposits cost, but that time will tell. That's more or less it.
Okay, thanks.
Thank you. We will now go to the next question. The next question comes from the line of Johan Ekblom from UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Just trying to come back to the cost side, and I guess going back to Andreas's question, trying to gauge, I guess, at least what the addressable cost base is in central functions. When I look at the results, is it fair to take the internally purchased and sold services as a, you know, broad figure for the size of the cost base that's being addressed? Just to kind of try and get a sense for what what the magnitude could be here. And then maybe relating to costs and your comments on, you know, income growing faster than cost, which was, I guess, a key trigger that your predecessors flagged for lack of Oktogonen and contributions in the past. If we ignore the rate benefits that you had, are you happy with the kind of relationship between the growth in the top line and cost? Because it looks to me like you're still seeing cost grow faster.
Thanks, Johan. Let me start at least. As Michael said, we will work gradually with the cost base. But to put it in relation, so you got a ballpark number of what kind of ratios, not talking about the cost savings, but how large proportion of the organization this will affect. We have 12,000 staff in the bank. It roughly affects 4,100 of them, which is a third then, roughly, and it do affects 55% of the cost base. So that's the base we're working with, at least. And but then again, we will gradually do the analysis, and we'll see what the conclusion will be.
So just coming back on the question, if I'm happy, I'll... You don't know me yet, but I'm not happy. I'm never really happy, but I sometimes I am, sorry. But it's not my job to be happy. And I see underlying, you could tell, and you've heard, banks reporting in Sweden prior to us, that margins, customer margins, on the mortgage side, for example, is rapidly turning down during 2023. So and that's and so, at the same time, we've been facing a cost inflation that really is from a counter perspective not unheard of, but it was a long time since we had those numbers to cope with.
So of course, as always, being cautious with our cost, being cautious to what we deliver, and we should just do the things we need to do to make business go forward. And we need to really business focus all of the bank, not just the branches and the counties. All the bank need to be business focused in a bit more way than I think we are right now. And being business focused, meaning that you explore and you question your own deliverances and what we really need to make sure that customers are happy, that we can increase our business. And that's what's gonna happen right now.
A focus on business for the whole bank, and we will give the branches the ability to really choose their customers and their counterparties and be, you know, strong in making their decisions with broad competence and specialists out in all of our 2,000 and soon 7 branches in Sweden and all over in our home markets.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take the next question. The next question comes from the line of Riccardo Rovere from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Thanks, thanks for taking my question. Just a couple of clarification, if I may. First of all, when you say in the outlook 2024 anticipated dividends, to keep the 400 basis buffer, is that an interim dividend? Should I read it as an interim dividend at some point? Probably I'm getting it wrong, but I just want to hear it from you. The second point I wanted to ask you, I've never... I don't see the word buyback mentioned anywhere. I might be wrong, but I haven't seen it. So I imagine that all your capital distributions is assumed to be cash and still related somehow to that, the 400 basis points instead of the 300 at the top of the range. Is that anything to do with CRE exposures? Thanks.
Should I start? I don't know if I heard your first question correctly, but I think you were asking around, can we see an interim dividend?
Yeah.
Yeah, and yes, what we said is that we will review this plus 4% yearly. So we don't close any doors, but most likely, the next review then is up a year from now. Then, yes, you are correct. You haven't seen anything about share buybacks as of saying that we will do it. As you know, yes, we will ask for permission to perform share buybacks from the AGM still, and that's in the report. But no, the total distribution to shareholders today is gonna be with, is proposed to be with dividends. Then we will, going forward, we will look at what's best at that time. The extra percentage points does not have anything to do with CRE, no.
It rather has, I mean, we wanna run the bank long term and run it conservatively, and we always wanna be in the best position to support the real economy and, and our clients.
Very clear. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will now go to the next question. One moment, please. The next question comes from the line of Markus Sandgren from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Good morning. I guess we've already touched a bit about this, the questions I have already, but if I can put them anyway. So in terms of return on equity, you aim to be above the average of your peers. And we've talked a bit about costs and talked about return levels in Norway, but do you see the... I mean, the main lever to get there, is that to increase the share of capital light product offering, i.e., net commission income, or is it capital, or is it costs? So that's my first question.
Then secondly, about capital again then, I mean, you, if you consider your credit loss provisions to be where they should, and you expect low regulatory headwinds and not much of GDP growth in the year to come, what is really the 100 basis points on top of your high end of the interval for, please? Thanks.
So if I may start with the first question. So to run a bank as Handelsbanken and aiming for and delivering a higher rent return on equity than our peers, it's not. It's doing everything that you mentioned. We obviously work in markets which are very transparent. You know what the price is. The price is given in a way in most of our products. And we need to be there. So price is given. It's a transparent and open market with high competitiveness. So that's where we need to be. And to be able to perform on our corporate goal, obviously, we need to be more efficient than our cost competitors, and we also need to have higher customer satisfaction to really make sure that we continue to do good business with the right customers going forward.
On top of that, obviously, we need to be capital efficient, and we need to have a balance sheet that really is prudent. And, you know, we're risk-averse, so we need to make sure that we're always gonna be the right and a very, very strong counterpart for both our customers and for the society as well. So it's all of those things that you mentioned. Be cautious and very efficient with our cost side, work hard on delivering happy, satisfied customers, and focus most on the capital light product, as you mentioned. That's what they do, all around, at the branches, helping our customers with their savings and pensions and things like that, and of course, have a balance sheet, in a very strong shape.
Okay, thanks. And then the second one on the capital side, please.
Well, as I will keep reiterating the answer, I mean, you know us, we run the bank long term. We wanna run it risk conservative. We will not, at each time, try to optimize the capital structure. We don't see any stress in that one. So, being in a situation to support the society and the real economy and our clients, that's really important for us. So we don't have a stress moving down, but once things normalize, we will move down into the normal target range.
Okay, thanks.
Thank you. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one and one on your telephone keypad. We will now take the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Andreas Håkansson from SEB. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi, thanks for the follow-up. Just on asset quality, I mean, you reported for the full year around SEK 114 million in loan losses, and, as someone alluded to, you have a low coverage ratio on your stage 3, which indicates to me that you're quite comfortable with the situation. And when I then look at consensus estimates for 2024, the street is looking for over SEK 2 billion of loan losses for 2024. Could you tell us, when you look at that number, what scenario will you need to see to go that high?
I, I. I mean, looking historically, obviously, we're extremely pleased with our asset quality. We're extremely pleased with the way we've been working on it for many, many years now, improving our client base, work with more securitized lending, et cetera. So we've been doing quite a lot to actually structurally improve the asset quality in our view. Having said that, then obviously, the credit losses we do end up with, they tend to be idiosyncratic, so they tend to be very hard to predict. So I think your question, by essence, is then hard to answer. So we can just see that, that obviously the analysts, you struggle with predicting a very low credit loss. I don't have any answer to what needs to happen, but most likely an idiosyncratic problem once again.
Okay, thanks.
Thank you. We'll now take the next question. Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Coombs from Citi. Please go ahead.
I might ask a couple, if that's okay. I missed out in the first round. The first question would just be coming back to asset quality. I appreciate there are a number of moving parts here. You're looking at the impact of the better quality on new loans compared to exits. You've got the updated macro assumptions. But just taking a step back, if you look over the last two years, you've seen some of the biggest increase in Stage 3 migration compared to any other European bank. Your Stage 3 coverage ratio has dropped from 24% to 16%. Your Stage 2 coverage ratio has dropped. How long... And I appreciate it's a function of IFRS 9 and various other things, but how much longer can you continue to see a decline in those coverage ratios?
Where do you think they could bottom? I guess that's the first question. My second question is just on the corporate deposit base. I appreciate there's always seasonality around Q4, but what do you expect for corporate deposit flows, and for your own market share going into 2024, and any implications that has for pricing dynamics? Thank you.
Well, thanks for the questions. Well, first, on asset quality, I think it's important then to once again go back to the more or less rule book and look why is the volume moved to Stage 2? That's obviously if we see a decrease or an increase actually in the probability of default by 2.5x , then we need to move the volume. So let's say then that you know our starting position. We've lent to some real estate companies in a really good shape. They have low loan-to-value ratios, and they have good ICR levels. But when rates are moving up, in some cases, three times, four times, perhaps, of course, that will hit the cash flow outlook.
In essence, then, it's definitely reasonable and feasible, and what we want to see is that the ratings are adjusted due to, obviously, the cost of carrying the loan is higher. So that requires that we move the loan to Stage 2. Having said that, then if we have collateral in place at a very good proportion and low LTV levels, that's the reason you see decreasing Stage 2 reserves dropping. So I think it's... I don't have any answer to your question, how low could they drop? But the way you should read it is that they shouldn't be seen as a signal to that we see problem loans there.
It's just a consequence of increasing rates quickly, and then the cash flow outlook becomes more challenging. But if we have collateral in place, we... That's the reason behind it. And then the corporate deposits, I mean, we always see corporate deposits moving down over year-end. And I think you can go back and look at the outlook previous years to have a good guidance to see what the outcome should be. So there's nothing this year which makes our challenge if there is something structural in that development. We just see that as one of cleaning up the balance sheet over year-end.
Thank you. I will now go to the next question. One moment, please. Your next question comes from the line of Ricardo Rovere from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Thanks a lot for taking this quick follow-up. Okay, on capital again. If this year, you're gonna take... You're gonna have 400 basis buffer, and then if the situation, from what I understand, if the situation can normalizes, you know, you're gonna get back to the traditional 100-300. So your internal target is gonna should go down. That means that the payout ratio should go above 100% because you will steer down the Common Equity Tier 1. Now, is that possible, or maybe is that acceptable in Sweden, that the payout ratio goes 100% or above 100%?
... Well, well, thanks, Ricardo, for the question. I think first of all, putting it in perspective, I mean, we're a bank who's been running for 150 years. We built a business model where we really wanna be self-sufficient and self-dependent, and we've never taken support from government nor from equity owners. So, and we put really pride in that one. So you should really think that the +4%, that is a very prudent way of managing our business model. Having said that, if we now guide ourself- and I should allude as well, we are actually... We direct and indirect taxes and fees, we're actually supporting the society with a larger share than we're supporting our shareholders with.
So, we think we're a really society beneficial bank. Having said that, then, yes, I mean, theoretically, if P&L is moving, if P&L keep rolling in at really steady levels and we see risk-weighted assets dropping, yes, theoretically you could see a dividend share, which is very, very high. On the contrary, if we start growing quite a lot, if we start seeing volume growth, and if you start seeing structural or RWA headwinds, it will adjust lower than the dividend share. So it is up to you more or less to make a prediction now of the outcome of the underlying movements, and then we will try staying at +4% over the year.
That's clear. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will now take our final question for today. And your final question comes from the line of Jacob Kruse from Autonomous. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you, Jacob from Autonomous. Just a quick follow-up on the NII question. Could you just comment a little bit about how you see the moving parts as rates come down, if we go to more of a 2% rate level over the next two years? Just in terms of your thinking on lending margins, deposits, and if there are any other positions on your balance sheet that would impact the move there. Thank you.
Now, as we mentioned before, we don't guide on a basis of splitting out deposit margins and lending margins, and we'll refrain from doing that. So, when rates potentially might drop, I think as always, and just like rates were increasing, we refrain on providing guidance for the same reason that there are so many moving factors behind an overall NII margin. And at the end of the day, it's of course, competition that decides, both on the lending side as well as on the deposit side, and they are indirectly connected to each other. That ultimately decides on where the overall margin goes. And since we don't know how competition will behave as rates i f rates come down, as priced into the market, we refrain from providing any detailed guesses on how that will develop.
But what we can say is obviously that we have seen the movement from transaction account over to savings accounts declining, so that seems to have stabilized. And yes, obviously, if we go back long-term, looking at the rate levels we've seen, I mean, we actually have quite feasible margin levels overall. Time will tell what the competitive landscape will look like, and as Michael said, our branch managers and people out at the branches, they will adapt to this level, and then we'll see what the outcome will be.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. I will now hand the call back for closing.
So thank you for taking your time and joining our Q&A session. I hope you will find you found our answers good and useful for all of you, and looking forward to meeting you going forward. Thank you so much for today. Goodbye.