Sivers Semiconductors AB (publ) (STO:SIVE)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Oct 27, 2022

Anders Storm
Group CEO, Sivers Semiconductors

Good morning, and welcome to this webcast of the Q3 report 2022 for Sivers Semiconductors. My name is Anders Storm, and I'm the Group CEO, and I'm gonna take you through the report and update you on the status of the company. If we look at the summary, the net sales came in at about SEK 28 million, which is 6% growth. If we look at the sort of January to September, it's a growth of about 23% overall, where we had sort of high growth in Q1, a bit less in Q2, and a little bit in Q3. However, we have had sort of a very fruitful couple of weeks actually from September and forward, where we have had a lot of orders.

One order from our main Fortune 100 for $1 million, a Satcom development order and an acceleration fee of almost $1 million. We also secured a loan during this period, and we also had a very good ECOC fair with Ayar Labs. We also got a grant together with Chalmers University of Technology. Now the latest after the report, we also got a $1.4 million purchase order from a European Satcom company. If we look at sort of summarizing this over the last six weeks, we have received purchase orders of about $40 million, and that is of course a record in that short period.

If we look at the Q3 in general, it is a quite short quarter for us since July and August is normally sort of more or less closed out in Europe and the U.S., and September is the only month where we sort of can really do business. From the twelfth of September and forward, we actually then received SEK 30 -40 million approximately purchase orders, as we have sent out on press releases. We also get smaller purchase orders which we don't normally show. Anyway, going back to the quarter, 6% as I said. If we look at the EBITDA, we are improving that quite a lot.

However, if we look at Adjusted EBITDA, it's down a bit, and a lot of that is connected to increasing costs around the acquisition of MixComm and personnel costs and so forth. EBIT is up and improved a little bit, but not much. Main reason sort of for the lower Q3 sales is that Photonics is not coming in on target. Here we are 20% down since last year, while we're seeing a growth of over 100% in the wireless business. This is due to some sort of delays in the fab together with some revenue recognition with customers that had to approve some things we sent to them. If we look at the overall January to September, we are growing.

We're now at SEK 82 million for the year to date, which is 23% up. We're also improving EBITDA and a little bit lower EBIT, but that is again connected to the acquisition of MixComm, where we had these dual products where we did a write-down sort of of SEK 22 million, as well as we've started to amortize depreciation of the acquisition, which in total comes into SEK 51 million. With that removed, we are actually better on the EBIT level as well. If we look at the segment reporting, as I mentioned, net sales growing wireless about 104%. Photonics is down 20%. We're also increasing our sales in the U.S., which is sort of good. We're looking at the macroeconomics and focusing more on the West in this current situation.

That is the highest number we had so far, 82%. We're also 13% in Europe and 5% in Asia now, so down about 5% in Asia from previous quarters. NRE is approximately the same levels. We're still heavy on NRE, which is expected at this phase, but we are getting into volume orders, as you've seen. If we look at overall year to date now, wireless is now up from about 25% of sales to 40%, and we expect wireless to grow quicker in the coming five quarters. Looking at the sales in Asia in general, we're getting a lot of questions about what happened with the U.S. new regulations and so forth from Biden for China, for example.

Of course, that could impact us, but since we have so little sales in Asia right now, we don't see any impact more than possibly sort of order intake from possibly new customers that we cannot address. In general, that is not an area where we see too much issues. If we look at the significant events then, as I mentioned, we had the Fortune 100, which is getting better and better, and I've never been more positive about seeing that customer coming to fruition. We're getting very positive feelings. The Satcom is going really well now. Also securing a loan facility for growth capital and liquidity in the company has been very important for us.

As well as Ayar Labs, who was on our Capital Markets Day and sharing our fantastic solution together that you could have seen on the ECOC in 2022 in Basel, where we have seen very positive things. Going into the Fortune 100, as you know, it is actually four years now since we started this project. They have invested SEK 130 million so far, which is a quite large amount for us and a very important customer, of course. During this year, so far, we've received SEK 34 million in orders and delivering on that, and this is the best year so far with this customer. Volume production is getting closer. We have no firm commitments yet, but I think we'll see that coming in the future.

We're quite confident that we are in the right place when it comes to sort of both the emitter and the detector for this sensor project. As I mentioned, SEK 130 million, and we have a very good working relationship still with this group. Look at the Satcom order. That was the purchase order of about SEK 10 million or $900,000 engineering activities where we start performing work. Work will be performed mostly in Q4. We see more orders for that coming in. We also got an acceleration fee to accelerate deliveries of chipsets since the market is looking to get chipsets next year already.

Then later on, you saw the order here. I think it was this week, where we now got an order of about SEK 15 million, SEK 16 million for volume in next year already. The loan facility, this is for continued growth capital to promote, to continue growth. As you see, we are getting more and more orders. The lenders cannot short the stock. There was some discussions on that, but Nasdaq have reviewed and approved the loan facility. It's a strong loan and we're happy that we have the lenders backing us and giving us a chance to move closer and closer to a cash flow positive situation for the company.

Of course, it's very, sort of challenging macroeconomic environment, and to be able to get the loan this large in this environment is a strong message, I think, to the market in that sense. If we look at the Ayar Labs, if you listen to the Capital Markets Day, to the CEO of Ayar Labs, you will hear a lot more about this. It is very promising that we are sort of in pole position together with Ayar Labs to deliver now, sort of the 2 terabit solutions for optical I/O inside computers. They tell us that we are the only one who have been able to do this.

We're the first company out, and this is sort of a eight-channel array that we have been able to produce with high quality, and it's now tested and in sort of prototyping together with Ayar Labs. This is a very interesting market. If you don't know Ayar Labs, that's one of the coolest startups in California who recently received $130 million from Intel, HP, Nvidia, and they are working with several very large companies which become Sivers indirect customers in this partnership. We're very proud to be part of this and we're looking to support them to go into sort of the first production during next year already. What happened after the quarter? We got an interesting partnership with Chalmers.

We have been working with Uppsala University and other universities before, but not really sort of done anything larger with Chalmers. I think it's a good sign as well. We also got the Satcom purchase orders and also we were able to appoint Harish, who is the founder of MixComm, or co-founder and former CTO, and he is now the managing director of Sivers Wireless. I'm very happy to see this. Harish is also a very large shareholder with more than 10 million shares in the company. The Chalmers project is actually a two-year project.

We are applying sort of the latest technology, and stuff we have been doing and also coming in from the acquisition of MixComm, where we can sort of work harder with GlobalFoundries and other foundries to do the next-generation solutions here. This is SEK 2 million to Sivers and SEK 2 million to Chalmers to investigate and get this out to the market. The Satcom order is from a European Satcom company. It's about SEK 16 million. We also earlier, before Sivers actually acquired MixComm, there was an order of about SEK 6 million, which is sort of partly already paid to MixComm from beginning. There is another SEK 3 million actually that will be delivered in Q1 of these first chipsets coming out to for sort of pre-series production.

Even if it's small volumes yet in this, it is quite large orders that we will probably see based on this. We expect more orders actually to come during and that will be delivered in 2023. This is just a start that we see now. Regarding the MixComm earnout, I think people might be remembering that there was that part of the contract and there was a deadline from when this should be sort of finalized. There are sort of still discussions that how and if the commercial milestones were sort of met and it's connected to some technical things that is still going on during the quarter where we are looking at, during this quarter if actually fulfilled it and how it will sort of pan out.

The assessments are still ongoing but will be completed during this quarter and then we understand if the full earnout will happen or not. I would say that the work with this very important part is still ongoing. If you look at the market update, I mean, we are now focusing on very interesting megatrends. High-speed broadband with our 5G and so forth. We have the silicon photonics which is connected to Ayar Labs, our Fortune 100 customers. We're part of augmented reality solutions with Fortune 100 customers. We're working with LiDAR customers from the Nasdaq main market for autonomous driving. We have Satcom customers now, and we also have sensors for health monitoring type of things.

All of these mega trends are within what we're doing. All of this, we believe that independently of the macroeconomic situation that we see, a lot of these areas are now moving forward independently of sort of inflation or whatever that's happening. We have a very positive view on the future, this. We also seen, as I mentioned, sort of an increase in orders, the last six weeks. What is it actually that we deliver then in this technology? We are the connection between the digital world and the real world.

We're actually taking the digital signals, make them into analog signals, radio waves or laser light, and we can then send this between sort of a mobile phone or a base station or in a fiber or as a light source for a sensor or for example, autonomous driving, more like a radar when it bounces off and bounces back. We have the focus on sort of these type of semiconductors that are vital for all type of communication and sensing. What kind of market is this? We are still, you know, in a sort of NRE based market, but the overall total addressable market for all of these kind of chipsets is above $10 billion. It's a very large market that we're now getting into.

So far looking at our sales at sort of hardware level, we are a very modest sales and that's where we now want to go in and start taking market share based on our customers. 5G has been a little bit slower than expected over this period, mainly to connect it to sort of U.S. basically going in and changing from millimeter wave to sub-6 for a while to focus on coverage rather than getting sort of the higher speeds into the networks. We're seeing positive signs from customers now that we are moving in the right direction. Satcom is sort of market is strong for NRE right now and also will start contributing for volumes in 2033.

Photonics market will start taking off in 2023 from a sort of total addressable market and customers like the Fortune 100 and Ayar Labs and others are now coming to the next phase. If we look at what is the total addressable market? Yeah, that's sort of the overall market that everybody who's selling into this would be able to address. So, if you sell these kind of chipsets, indium phosphide chipsets or lasers that we are. There is also other, I think you say serviceable addressable market or serviceable obtainable market, which is sort of obtainable market is the market share. We are not yet giving a sort of an estimate what kind of market share we can take, but that will come later when the company starts making forecasts.

The photonics part here is sort of the laser light source emitting light where we sort of sending the light out. The silicon photonics is to connect connection between these photonic lasers and the silicon where you can make a big difference in the solution. The Fortune 100 companies are sort of the 100 largest U.S. companies with sort of large market caps, which is sort of a part of that. We have three of those right now. If we look at the silicon photonics piece, we are sort of photonics in the silicon photonics and a very, very important piece of the puzzle here. We have several very important patents where you and how you connect the lasers onto the silicon.

The reason for not being able to sort of use silicon directly as lasers is that the material properties of silicon is not good enough to do lasers as you want to. You need to do indium phosphide lasers, for example. That's what we can do. We have now 19 customers on the indium phosphide platform, and we are working hard to get those to the market. Just a week or two ago, actually, we saw a new report coming out from Yole where they are talking about indium phosphide photonics device markets. As you can see here, it's going to be sort of a large uptake and the overall market will be over $5 billion. Microwave Journal went out and said that consumer is the holy grail for indium phosphide.

As you've seen, we have sort of consumer applications for our sort of sensors as well. This is a first time sort of that Yole talks about this and get an understanding on how big the indium phosphide market actually is. Back to that here, you can see then, as I mentioned before, our indium phosphide lasers that now goes into Ayar Labs solutions. I would say that the optical I/O piece is still an early piece in the indium phosphide community. Where that's gonna go is still unclear. I think Yole don't have the full understanding of this market yet either.

If we're listening to what Charlie from Ayar Labs, the CEO, said, he says that sort of it's gonna be SEK 7 billion SAM just for the optical I/O piece in the future, which is quite interesting of course, because they will then exchange the copper wires into optics. We believe that that's a quite important step to actually circumvent the challenges that are in data centers and other applications here. He also says that Sivers' technology is vital for our solution, and that's because we are the laser source in the solution that actually sends the light and creates the solution. That's very good news, I would say, for us in that sense.

The same thing was shared in the Capital Markets Day by All.Space, our customer in the Satcom industry. What they are doing, they have sort of a very interesting ground terminal that could be connected to everything from the three different levels, I would say, of satellites today. You have the sort of GEO, LEO, and MEO applications where you have the low earth orbit, the medium earth, and the geostationary orbits, which has been the old way of doing it. With all these things, you can now suddenly connect multiple things. All.Space is the first company who actually connects multiple satellites within different types of stationary satellites.

There our technology also is mentioned by the CEO, John from All.Space, that our technology who receives and sends this is absolutely vital for these next generation things. Looking at this market as well, it's going to have a quite sort of large uptake going forward, going into sort of the new type of flat panel SatCom arrays. That is sort of where our technology with beam steering can actually change this into a technology that actually works, rather than having a dead dish technology and you have to sort of point it in the right direction. Now, we can point it, you can put it onto military vehicles, you can do anything, and you can connect to several different satellites at the same time.

This market is now sort of beginning and growing and the total sort of is about $5 billion over the coming seven years. The pre-series volume that we received so far for next year already is $80 million. We expect, as I said, more, and this is just a pre-series. When All.Space starts taking market shares here, we will see a very quick uptake, I would say, in growth in this market. If we look at the overall market so far, when it comes to 5G, as I mentioned, it's been a bit slower uptake. Here you can see how small sort of the millimeter wave was in 2019.

Now we're seeing sort of a larger market that will develop up to sort of a $2.7 billion market in 2026, and that will sort of be growing. Unfortunately for the short term, there's been sort of things delayed in this millimeter wave market. As many of the research reports says, including this from Yole, that uptake is coming but are a bit delayed. Talking about then what we have here, I mean, we have 43 design wins within wireless, where a lot of them are in the 5G millimeter wave stuff. We have customers now that we are getting orders from, and we expect to see more and more on this. This is sort of the updated view.

We have about 11 of these design wins with 23, or 11 customers with 23 ready hardwares designed in different aspects. We have seen lately that Airwan got $10 million in. We've seen All.Space and others here getting in and moving in the right direction and getting things to the market. We've also seen actually Blu Wireless now getting the first stuff out on a 70-kilometer truck-to-train application in the UK. I think that will now start rolling a bit more, and we expect to see things there, for example. If we now summarize this, we are moving from the NRE. The NRE will still be important for us, but we are now sort of moving into this $10 billion TAM market over the coming years.

2023 will be the year we see more and more. Even if the macroeconomic environment is challenging, we expect to see much higher growth from Q4 and forward, driven by NRE short term, but then also hardware sales. If we summarize all of this, we can see that we had sort of a very small growth in Q3. Still over the year, we've still grown 23% in this macroeconomic situation. It's not too bad. We're now getting to the phase which I talked about, that the second half of 2022 will be when we start seeing orders. As I've said, we've seen now SEK 40 million orders just the last 6 weeks. I think we'll see more and more coming in during this year as well.

The orders, the SEK 40 million is from the Satcom, it is from Photonics we've seen, also supporting orders from different type of applications. In this sense, we are now sort of supporting the mega trends that are going to be the coming 10 years, very important for building up the society in general, ranging from everything from broadband to LiDAR, to silicon photonics, to satellite communication. I think we're in a very good spot with products in all areas. We are expecting higher growth, as I said, onwards. I'm very happy to see that we sort of finally starting to see purchase order coming in in just the last 4 weeks or 6 weeks, as I said. We've seen SEK 40 million, which is a record for us.

We hope to see more. We will sort of address that. Okay. Time is coming up. I would like to thank you all for listening. I have to go to another interview. Thank you very much.

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