Welcome to the Trelleborg Q4 Report 2023. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode. During the questions and answer session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing pound key five on their telephone keypad. Now, I will hand the conference over to the speaker, CEO Peter Nilsson, CFO Fredrik Nilsson. CFO Fredrik Nilsson, please go ahead.
Hello, everybody. Peter Nilsson speaking. Sorry for the mishap there. We don't know exactly what went wrong, but something went wrong. But now, we are live. And as usual, then we would like to refer to the presentation, which is on our webpage and where we are presenting the results for Trelleborg in Q4, October-December 2023. Rapidly moving then to page two, the agenda page, where we then gonna talk about the highlights, business areas. Fredrik Nilsson, our CFO, will then guide us through the financials, and then we will sum up with a summary and some comments on the outlook for the running quarter, and then, of course, as usual, also open up for a Q&A. Turning then to page three, solid end to the year.
We feel that we have had a very solid Q4, very much in line with our expectations and, yeah, as according to our expectations, basically all across. Sales at a little bit north of SEK 8.4 billion, which is an increase of 4% compared to a year ago, where organic sales is then unchanged. Acquisitions adding 3% and currency adding another 1% when we report in Swedish krona. EBITA are up by 6%, which is kind of not above the sales, which then means also that the margin will be a slight uptick compared to a year ago.
Items affecting comparability at SEK 260, where restructuring charge is SEK 173, and we also have recorded a non-cash loss on a divestiture done in the quarter. Cash flow is strong at SEK 1.3, not as strong as a year ago, but about a year ago, it was a very strong cash flow, and basically everything in our balance sheet managed in a good way. I mean, we managed the inventory in a good way. Payables is good, receivables is good, but of course, impacted once again by tough comps and also with a slight uptick in CapEx in the quarter compared to a year ago.
We also note in the quarter a very satisfying, let's say, acquisition made in South Korea, where we bought a company, a local company, very specialized in special seals for semicon equipment. And that we see as a strategically very nice acquisition for us, where we're just creating a strong position in the biggest semiconductor market in the world and also creating a great foundation for us to use this technology and this experience that this company has, in order to bring it also into other markets, primarily in Asia, but also providing benefits for us and supplementing what we have in our range today also, and make it possible also to create a foundation also for this interesting segment also in Europe and North America, eventually.
Also, maybe worthwhile mentioning here also, it probably should have been on the page, but sometimes you do mistakes. Dividend is also—dividend is proposed at SEK 6.75, which is an up compared to a year ago, of course, subject to confirmation at the upcoming annual general meeting. Turning to page four. Organic sales, relatively flattish all across. Zero, as we already commented on the total, with a slight uptick in Europe, and of course, still down in Asia, but substantially better compared to last quarter, and also then North and South America, let's say, in a slight negative.
But overall, relatively flattish as you see everywhere, and I mean, in comment, we going forward a little bit, we see Europe basically continuing the same way, maybe slightly more negative view on North and South America, but then a positive view in Asia, where we see an uptick in the order intake in China, where we are believing in a kind of an improvement in Asia. Of course, with the note that we know our Chinese New Year coming up, and that is also difficult to judge that one for quarter one. But nevertheless, overall, going into 2024, we see that Asia, especially China, is improving. Turning to page five, agenda page, going to the business areas and quickly then turning to page six. Comment on industrial solutions. Organic sales -1%, M&A adding 2%.
Basically, same development that we saw in last quarter. Still weak sales in especially residential construction, both in Europe, North America, and also in certain industrial segments, where we still see soft demand in the more kind of distribution-related segment, but also slightly tougher in some of the core machinery segments, especially in Europe. No change basically compared to a quarter ago. Sales to marine segment continue to be strong. I mean, we already commented on this special offer in Panama for us, but also in other areas related to LNG and related to the marine port construction in general, performed well in the quarter, continued to perform well.
Automotive also remained high, and surprisingly high, if I may say, but it continuing in a good way, and we also see relatively good momentum in this segment here going into running quarter. Overall, EBITA up on structural improvements. I mean, you know that we've been investing quite a lot in improving the overall business setup in Industrial Solutions. We see benefits from that, and also continue to see a positive sales mix as in the last quarter. And we also note with satisfaction, of course, that this is the highest margin we have had on Industrial Solutions ever in Q4. Moving then to page seven, and commenting on Trelleborg Sealing Solutions, organic sales is slightly up 1%, M&A adding 4%. Also basically comments very much in line with what we see in Industrial Solutions.
We see the general industry declined in most markets. I mean, we see also Europe and the core industrial demand is a little bit softening. We read into that continued inventory reductions, and not really much change compared to last quarter. Automotive demand also here, up. And then we continuously strong sales in aerospace and also satisfactory development also in healthcare and medical, although we see some hints in certain parts of this, that we see some customer inventory adjustment kind of continuing there as well, but we see a good underlying demand, a good continued, let's say, order intake. EBITA and margin declined, mainly linked then to, as we have commented before, also acquisitions coming in with lower margin.
We see the integration is running good, and we are getting closer to what we had before. We see this as we expect this to continue to move in the right direction. Also noting, highlighting again, that we continue to invest, especially aerospace, healthcare and medical, semicon, some automation and some other segments where we would like to, let's say, create a better foundation for growth going forward, which is also continue to hurt the, let's say, the operational result in Sealing Solutions. So that is kind of no surprises here either, and that's basically a movement very much in line with our expectations and with our guidance. Then turning to page eight, a few slides here on sustainability, continue to improve in all dimensions.
Our, let's say, CO2 intensity continue to improve, and our kind of total consumption of, of CO2 or emission of CO2 is, is continuing also downwards. So turning then to page nine, I mean, the, the biggest driver for this is, is the share of, of the renewable and fossil-free electricity, which is continuing to improve. And we also here highlight also those work cases where we are also continuing in a good way. So, so also well under control in terms of sustainability, and we are, let's say, performing, yeah, well ahead of our previous targets for, especially for CO2. And of course, we're now moving also the Science-Based Targets initiative, also, as you know, it has been approved, and we are now kind of moving away from the previous fulfilled target and launching...
We have launched a new target, but we're now running into that in a more formal way. Turning to page 10, agenda slide again, financials, and quickly turning to page 11, where I hand over to Fredrik to guide you through this.
Thank you, Peter. Moving on to page 11, looking at the sales development, we have flat organic sales in the quarter. Sealing Solutions, Sealing Solutions reported growth with 1%, while Industrial Solutions declined by 1%. And as Peter mentioned, reported net sales up 4%, 3% impact from acquisition, and currency added 1%. Moving on to page 12, looking at the historical organic growth trend, we were below our sales growth target in the fourth quarter, but please remember that we reported 15% organic growth and 23% in total growth in Q4 2022. Moving on, page 13, showing the quarterly sales around 12. The SEK 8.4 billion in sales were the highest to date for a fourth quarter.
If we look for the full year, the sales reached SEK 34.3 billion, with an organic growth of 2% for the full year. Moving on, page 14, looking at the EBITA and EBITA margin. EBITA, excluding items affecting comparability, increased with 6% to SEK 1,424 million, with profit growth in Industrial Solutions, while Sealing Solutions was on par with prior year. In the result, there was also a small translation impact of SEK 4 million in the quarter. Margin 16.9% compared to 16.5% the prior year, and this is despite this, what Peter mentioned, initially impacting from acquisition with lower margin and the investments we are making in the organization on fast-growing markets. Moving on to page 15, looking at the margin, the positive trend continue with increased EBITA.
If you look for the full year, we were for the first time above 6 billion, with SEK 6.002 billion in EBITA for the full year, with a margin of 17.5%. EBITA and the margin were the highest to date also for fourth quarter. Moving on to page 16, looking at some details in the income statement, we have items affecting comparability of SEK 260 million in the quarter, which was higher than last year of SEK 115 million. Looking into some details here, we have restructuring costs of SEK 173 million, and that is due to that we are adjusting our cost base due to the lower demand. We are also divested, as early communicated, our offshore and oil and gas operation in the U.S., which generated a loss of SEK 87 million.
Financial net reached SEK -38 million, which was an improvement compared to SEK -76 million last year, and that was related to, of course, that we're now sitting with a net cash position. So higher interest rates cost, but it's offset by interest income. Tax rate for the quarter amounted to 25%, which is slightly below what we have communicated of 26% for the full year. Here, we will make an update, and I will come back to that when we are talking about the outlook, that we're now guiding for an underlying tax rate for continuing operation of 25%. Moving on, earnings per share for continuing operation, excluding items affecting comparability, up 20% from 3.4 to 4.08.
For the group as a whole, you can see that we are down, but that is due to that we have divested Wheel System and the printing blankets that was included in last year's number with SEK 1.68 billion. Moving on to page 18 and the cash flow. As you can see here, we have a cash flow last year of SEK 1.678 billion. This year, SEK 1.321 billion. Good continued improvement in EBITA. Little bit less positive from working capital, but as you can see on the table on the right side, it's still positive, SEK 300 million improvement from working capital in the quarter. Then, as Peter was also mentioned, we are investing more, and that you can see when you're looking at the net CapEx and leasing together.
So, all in all, a good cash flow for the fourth quarter. Looking into page 19, the cash conversion, a good cash conversion of 92% for the full year, compared to 74% in 2022. Moving on, page 20, gearing and leverage development. We are now sitting the net cash position, and the reported debt ratio becomes negative and amounts to -6, compared to 56 a year ago. The net debt-net cash in relation to EBITA was -0.2, compared to 2.4 a year ago. We have also continued to buy back shares during the quarter of SEK 1,078 million. Moving on to page 21, return on capital employed amounted to 12.9, compared to 15.9 a year ago, and the capital employed has been impacted by acquisitions with lower returns.
Finally, moving on to page 22, the financial guidelines for 2024, we estimate CapEx to be SEK 1.6 billion, which is in line with what we saw during 2023. Restructuring cost of SEK 250 million, which is a reduction of 50% compared to what you saw here during 2023. Intangibles in line with the numbers we reported 2023, so we estimate that to be around SEK 500 million. And as I said, underlying tax rate 25%, compared to previously communicated 26%. With that, I would like to hand back the microphone to you, Peter.
Great, Fredrik. Thanks a lot. The agenda page again, summary and outlook, turning to page 24. So end to the year, as we guided very much in line with our expectations, EBITA up slightly more than the sales is up, which is then pushing the margin a little bit up, making us the strongest Q4 so far for us in terms of margin. Also, overall, a good cash management, although down from a year ago. We are happy with most of the items in this respect, and also with satisfaction, we note that we are building a better position on seals, as I'm targeting the semicon industry.
So a good quarter for us, solid quarter, moving in the right direction, of course, creating a foundation to continue to build a better Trelleborg, a stronger Trelleborg. Good balance sheet as well, as we just to comment on that, which is, as I say, offering opportunities both for continued high organic CapEx, but of course, also to continue to scout for interesting acquisitions for us. So all in all, very solid end to the year, and of course, a very active year for Trelleborg. I mean, just to use this occasion also to comment on the full year performance, of course, we have changed the group, and we feel confident that we're gonna continue to improve, and we will continue to prove that we are building a better Trelleborg.
Turning to page 25, opening up just a few comments on the running quarter. I mean, we say overall, the demand is expected to be on par with the fourth quarter. Of course, there is always some ups and downs behind it. As I comment on geographies, Europe is basically continuing the same way. We see a stronger Asia, driven by an improvement in China. Might some slightly more negative view on Americas, where we see some pushes in certain areas going down, but overall, once again, well-balanced and everything moving forward. In terms of market segments, I mean, we see continued strong demand automotive. We see continued strong demand LNG, and let's say marine construction.
We continue also to see good development in aerospace, solid development overall in also medical and healthcare. And then where we have some more concerns, we don't see any changes in the construction. So residential construction segments continue to be not getting worse, but not really improving either. And then we are, let's say, carefully noticing the development in kind of core industrials, industrial machinery, and that kind of related segments, where we have some concerns, but we think that is more balanced by good development in other areas. So once again, overall, of course, there is always a mix behind, but overall, solid development going forward. And then, of course, we know geopolitical situation.
I mean, we're all painfully aware of the war going on in Ukraine and Russia, and the development in the Middle East, who knows what that's gonna be? So we always add that as well as a comment. But overall, we feel we have good control of the operations, and we are ready to act if needed. So that is kind of the way we look at the running business. So, turning to page 26, agenda point, Q&A, and then quickly moving over to the final page in our presentation and opening up for questions. So please, go ahead.
If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Klas Bergelind from Citi. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, Peter and Fredrik, Klas at Citi. So the first one is on Industry Solutions. It's a solid margin, again, up from 14% last year. I had expected the mix impact in marine, the Panama effect, to level off a bit here. So I'm trying to understand a bit more, Peter, what is underlying execution versus mix? You have the factory closures, the self-help. I might have asked this before, but it would be great to get a sense for the savings number running through the P&L. I'll start there.
Yeah, I mean, it's a mix of impacts, of course, but overall, we still have some minor benefits from the Panama, but also other big projects related to LNG and some others. So marine is definitely continue to kind of bring benefits, but, I mean, we don't really want to highlight... I mean, that is an overall development. We have some good development also in rail, for instance, in the quarter, good deliveries in rails, continued good automotive demand. So it's not really- we cannot pinpoint something really specific. It's more an overall good development, overall good management. So this is a movement in the right direction as we have had for many years.
Of course, the restructurings that we've been doing and that we've been spending more money, as we already comment on restructuring, and that is also creating benefits. So, but you're gonna see, I mean, our guidance remains. I mean, this is a long-term improvement, moving in the right direction. There could be some ups and downs in individual quarters, but overall, it's a long-term, I would say, climbing the value ladder in order to bring a more profitable business and a better business. So we... It's difficult really to kind of pinpoint something very specific on why this is happening.
I'm just trying to sort of... It feels like the underlying execution was a bit stronger, and it was more driven sort of more by the Panama effect early in the year, and I guess that is what I'm trying to get to, Peter.
I mean, once again, it's nothing really changed. It's a hard work improvement in a lot of dimensions. And then, of course, you could individually have a few tens of percentage points giving on individual margins, but the Panama is not—it is bringing some benefits, but I mean, it's 0.1% on the margin or 0.2% or something like that. But I mean, it's not really any major, major impact if you look at this individual quarter. It's good execution, benefits from previous restructuring, and then also some good project deliveries in the quarter, some linked to LNG, some linked to rail, automotive performing. So it's a solid quarter, but once again, a solid quarter with improvements in a multiple of dimensions.
That's great to hear. And my second one is on the guidance. You're guiding for flat demand. I think you mean that it should be sort of flattish growth again. But if I take into account easier comps, the destocking is leveling off, construction is bottoming.... I thought it could be a little bit more growth than that. Is it any end market or geography where you still see sort of big decline in volumes? You talked about North America, Peter, now a bit weaker, seems to be in peace. Yeah, just so we can sort of understand that a bit better.
No, no, I mean, I agree. But where we are a little bit more cautious is the core industrial demand, where we see some continued, I mean, prolonged focus on inventory reduction. We have some in the medical and healthcare, which is also some focus on inventory reduction. I mean, I should say the order intake is fairly solid. I mean, we have a order intake, well in line with sales in the quarter, but we are a little bit cautious on the way.
We still see some of our customers being a bit more cautious, ordering a little bit less, and then also we are getting—we and our suppliers is getting our kind of supply chain better in order, which means that also customers is getting also more focused and trusting our deliveries and our kind of sub-suppliers deliveries. So I think this is a little bit cautious maybe, but, but this is the way we look at it, Klas. I don't want to say that we understated it, but, but this is simply what we believe. But of course, it's a little bit on the cautious side, if you look purely on the order intake and the kind of the expectations. But we do believe that this is what's going to happen.
All good. Thank you.
The next question comes from Erik Golrang from SEB. Please go ahead.
Thank you. I have three questions. First one on profitability in MRP. Could you shed some light on sort of where is that as we exit 2023? Would be helpful to get a sense of how it's developing. Second question, the destocking you talked about in healthcare medical, is there are there sort of specific segments across your business or in specific areas, given it's quite, quite diverse? And then the third question on CapEx, is it still, I think you talked about clearly lower CapEx by 2025. Is that still the base case? Thank you.
Yeah. To talk about MRP, MRP is being integrated and it's, let's say, basically developing according to plan. So we are not really tracking that individually anymore in the same way with the same kind of cost base, but overall development in line with kind of expectations. We, of course, also there hurt a little bit by the residential construction. We have some water segment, but also we have some other segments performing better. So overall, of course, performance is changing, but overall, once again, development in line with expectations. We still have high, let's say, degree of certainty that we're going to bring the benefits.
We, we are quoting new projects, we are getting into new segments, but, but I mean, we also know that the sell-in period for a new seal or a new sealing solution is, is not that it's happening overnight. So we have a few quotes. I mean, it takes generally two-three years to, to get into a new segment or a new solution. We, we are quoting, and we think we are moving in the right direction. We're also now touching a little bit... Although this is not, let's say, the, the greatest synergies with, with this acquisition, but we also now start to move around a little bit more actively among the manufacturing footprint and, and integrating the MRP sites with the, call it the legacy Trelleborg sites, and also starting to, to clean a few of the sites to get them more focused.
I have had more mixed sites in MRP, while Trelleborg has had more specialized sites. So there is still some integration work ongoing, but overall, once again, development rather much in line with our expectations. To talk about the medical?
If I could just follow up there, Peter, on-
Yeah.
Have we, the dilutive impact from this acquisition, have we passed—are we at the trough there now in that? We sort of passed the inflection point-
We're going to have some negative impact also in 2024 from the, let's say, adding. So I mean, it's getting closer, to put it like that, but I mean, we are not yet through that tunnel.
Thank you.
We have guided for that we will run rate at the end of twenty...
Five.
25, which is still the same guidance. So we're going to have continue to kind of suffer from that in terms of margin, but we are hopefully going to start to see some, or we are going to see some organic benefits from these new orders, and they will start to kick in here during this year, although the bigger that will increase in 2024 and 2025, because it is a rather long selling in periods for a new sealing solution. It's not that they're changing overnight. I mean, it has to be new solutions, new kind of versions before we get in. So that's the way. So it's very—I mean, we feel, at least, it is very much in line with what we have been saying all along. There are no changes on that one.
Okay. Medical?
And then on the medical, I mean, if you highlight it, it's all across, but highlight biopharma still suffers, where the, let's say, the production of vaccines and that kind of stuff, where there have been a lot of overstocking that continue to suffer. We still find the segment very interesting, and we see the overall medical industry moving in that direction towards more kind of active substances. We see a big benefit, and that's also where they are kind of more replacing, and then there is more interesting, let's say, sub-segments in the biopharma, but that is suffering, and we also see on some equipment makers, it's not we cannot highlight any specific segment besides the biopharma. It's basically all across.
But once again, the order intake is good, and we, we are kind of gaining ground, and we are moving forward, and we still see big possibilities in the medical and healthcare segment. CapEx, I mean, I mean, like, easily, we, we still keep the same guidance, so we have some very specific big projects in 2025 as well. I mean, so we say, half of the CapEx is probably linked to, yeah, handful or slightly more than a handful of CapExes, and that is why we feel very confident that it will go down dramatically in 2025 as these projects are ending.
Very good. Thanks.
Sure.
The next question comes from Agnieszka Vilela from Nordea. Please go ahead.
Perfect. Thank you. My first question is on Sealing Solutions and coming back to the operational leverage, maybe specifically in the quarter. Looking at your sales development in the quarter, it was up by some SEK 250 million, but EBITA was largely flat, despite the positive currency impact. So some contribution from acquisitions, and probably also lower kind of integration cost for MRP. So can you just explain what happened in the quarter? And then maybe a follow-up, ending at 21% EBITA margin for 2023, what do you expect will happen to profitability in 2024, assuming flat or somewhat lower markets, and the fact that you still invest in the business? Thanks.
I mean, as we said, Agnieszka, that we have also invested in organization for future growth. So of course, that has an impact on the margin. We are continuing to investing into the speedboat segments with aerospace, health and medical, and semicon, and automation, and some other speedboat segments. So that is impacting the margin negatively. And then, of course, also, it's a variation between the different segments. Of course, there is some factories where you get a little bit of inefficiency when you're getting with a little bit lower volume, and some are running full. So of course, that is also impacting the margin in Sealing Solutions.
Overall, I mean, we are still sticking to our earlier communication that, we will be back here in 2025, so we will start to see a gradual improvement over the coming, two years. And then we have said in the run rate, when we are leaving 2025, we should be back that we were before, the large acquisition. So we, I mean, in a way, we keeping our guidance. We, we don't see any kind of deviations from our plan. We, we are moving in the direction we want, and of course, I mean, as you highlighted, there is also, say, this extra sales is also some price elements in that compensating for inflation. So it's not really that we have bigger volumes, to drop. We actually lower volumes, probably, in the quarter compared to a year ago.
So, overall, well managed. We feel, then, of course, you can have your views on it, but by the way, we feel fairly satisfied with the development.
And then just maybe follow up on that. Just, just looking into 2024, on the potential positive drivers for your earnings in Sealing, can you tell us whether the investments in the business will be lower or higher than in 2023? And also, what do you expect when it comes to kind of underlying profitability to MRP or other acquisitions?
We see an improvement. I don't want to give any figure guidance, but we see an improvement in 2024 in terms of margin. That is the way we look at it at the moment, and we believe it's gonna move in the right direction. Then exactly how much? I don't really want to give any hints on that, but we feel that we are true to that, and we're starting to get benefits from the investment we're doing. We're starting once again, let's say, to get the first kind of sales synergies coming in from MRP. We do also believe, at the moment, that we will see an improvement in China, which you probably is aware, is kind of positive mix for us. So we see a few positives.
The uncertainties, of course, linked to the volumes, and especially this what's called core industrial, how that will develop, but we feel confident that once again, medical healthcare will continue, aerospace will continue, automotive looking good, at least there for the first part of the year. We see now with the semicon entrants coming in. So, so we, we, we have some positives, while, while the volumes are the uncertainty, but, I mean, assuming that the volume stays relatively flat, we, we feel, confident that you're gonna see a margin improvement in, in Sealing Solutions.
Perfect. Thank you. And then the second question, Industrial Solutions, which finished the year at strong margin with 15.6%, up by almost one percentage point, which is probably, it, it is more than what you guided for, for a yearly improvement. So do you think this is kind of a representative level for Industrial Solutions, or were there any special benefits in 2023 that will, fade away in 2024?
No, I think it's slightly better once again, linked... I mean, we got good benefits in, in, Q3 and also slightly, as you said here in Q4, from, from this extraordinary order from, from Panama, which kicked in with high margin and, and high, yeah, high benefits. So, so, so we still guide for half a percentage point up a year. So of course, it been slightly over performance this year, and you should not really see if we can keep that kind of flattish going into next year, we should be happy.... So, so that is not really where we see, let's say, a, another improvement in the same, same dimension as we saw this year. But, but so, so that is, I mean, what we want to say about that.
Our overall guidance still remain 0.5 percentage point up a year, and as you say, some overperformance this year.
Perfect. Thank you, Peter.
Yes, I think-
The next question comes from Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Could we talk a little bit about the organic growth? If I look underlying, it seems to me like when I look at the different growth components underlying organic growth was better than expected, and if I'm reading you guys right, there was some price contribution here. Would it be possible to maybe discuss a little bit on how much price contribution you had and how much underlying volumes were developing? And how much of this we should expect for the remainder of the year? And I'm maybe talking more in Sealing Solutions here, but happy if you also could discuss industrial. Thanks.
I mean, it's a mixed issue, but overall, of course, the volumes are down. I mean, then we talk about a few percentage points down. I mean, we don't really wanna comment whether that is two, three, or four, but I mean, that is really what we talk about. So there is positive and then a similar positive on the price. I mean, that is what we're talking about, Hampus. So it's really overall the volumes are down, and I mean, the only reason for us for providing kind of organic positive growth, positive sales growth is due to, let's say, pricing actions.
Mm.
So, so that is why we are also kind of satisfied, although we, we kind of lower overall volumes, lower capacity utilization of factories, we managed to, to create a kind of an uptick on the margin. So, so that is why we are overall satisfied, and we have been working throughout the year. We have already kind of initiated a lot of what you call restructurings, downsizing. I mean, we, we managed to, to kickstart that already, let's say, in Q2 or something. So, so we are starting to see the benefits, and that is really what is saving us in this one. And of course, so, so that is, that is the way we look at it. So, so I don't really wanna, of course, we have internal, but, but this gets very complicated if we are to kind of go through the different segments.
Overall, a few percentage points down on volume being compensated by a few percentage points up on price.
Fair enough. And is it fair to assume that a large part of the price is a spillover, which means that price year-on-year price contribution should be tougher in Q3 or Q4, or are you implementing price increases as of January or-
At the moment, it is lower. There is some price roll over if you look the full year, full year, let's say, impact, but, but I mean, it's not really any major, but it will be a slight positive, both in terms of, of, pricing actions, but also in terms of these ongoing restructures that's gonna kick in and, and improve going forward as well. But I mean, we, we are not... That is normal. I mean, that is something that we're working with all the time. It's nothing specific, and of course, we're doing that in order to facilitate. We do expect, I mean, throughout next year, we do expect not the automotive volumes to continue as high as they are.
We still, with the highlight before, we don't expect any kind of improvements in the residential construction, and we are a little bit cautious also in this core industrial hydraulics, pneumatics, and construction equipment and agricultural equipment and that kind of stuff. So we are, of course, continuing to watch our costs very carefully, and we are continuing to adjust to be able to flex when needed. So it's. Sorry for a lengthy, let's say, lengthy reply without any really content, but that is the way we're working, with a lot of dimensions and a lot of actions in a variety of action.
I mean, that is also the way we feel that we are less cyclical overall, we have a better performance, we have better balance, and we are able to maneuver across this slightly more challenging environment.
Excellent. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Douglas Lindahl from DNB Markets. Please go ahead.
Hello, Peter and Fredrik. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to circle back on the pricing topic there. So based on your answer, we should continue, or we should expect continued price hikes, during 2024? That's my first question.
On price, I don't. Of course, in certain areas, we continue to push the pricing, but what I said is more the price rollover, because I've been, let's say, increasing pricing throughout 2023, and now that's gonna be a rollover into 2024. But so, that is the way we look at it. I mean, of course, price hikes is always on the agenda, but we don't expect price hikes to be at all on the same level as throughout 2023. So, that is not gonna be a big thing as we look at today. But I mean, that is a constant adjustment, and of course, we're looking at inflation.
Mm-hmm.
We are entering into salary discussions, and raw materials slightly down at the moment, of course, which I trust you're aware. So that is also something that we need to continue to watch, but we don't see an increasing inflationary pressure going into 2024, and then means also that the-
Yeah
... the push for price increase is gonna be less. But once again, there are gonna be certain pockets where we're gonna, let's say, increase pricing, but once again, it's not gonna be a major impact in 2024 as we're sitting here today.
Okay, fair enough. Thanks. You already touched upon my second question, which was basically on the cost base as you view it now, heading into 2024. Raw materials coming down, but maybe you could elaborate a bit more on your other cost, transportation, issues we're seeing right now.
But all of that, but if you say-
And costumer
... I mean, so far, as you say, on this, Suez Canal and all of that, we have not really seen an impact. There is some of our customers that have been hinting that there will problems with that, but, I mean, we, we have not really seen it, and we, we cannot kind of isolate any problems with this, at the moment. Overall, freight cost is also, as the volumes goes down, this also seems to be stable. We don't see any problematics there. So it's inflation outside of salary. Salary, we do expect, let's say,
Mm
... above average increase in 2024. Average, if you look at on the last few years, but I mean, at not the same push as we saw in 2023. So overall-
Yeah
... inflationary pressure is going to be less. But that is something-
Yeah
... which I say, we do that weekly. We are running on that weekly, so it might change. But as we see it-
Mm
... at the moment, it's not really a major impact for us.
Okay, thanks. And we touched upon the topic previously as well, but more in broader terms, the destocking that we've seen now for a few quarters. In general, maybe looking at the sort of your broad cyclical exposure, where would you say that we are there now? Yeah.
I mean, I should be, let's say, open or honest enough to say that we did not expect this to continue. It's been a slightly higher destocking going into in Q4 than we expected three months ago, if I put it like that, and that is also where a little bit cautious going forward. We do believe that's gonna be... I mean, we saw on some of the customers having a little bit longer Christmas breaks, and we also see now in China, for instance, some of the longer New Year breaks. So of course, we do see that some of these capital goods industries is continue to destock, but we see that we've been under supplying, kind of, the overall demand for a few quarters now, and I mean, it can continue that way.
So, it's at some time it needs to end. But,
Yeah
... once again, we do believe sitting here today, we do believe we're gonna have a negative impact from that also in Q1. But it should end soon.
Okay, fair enough. That's a good answer. And my final question is, on the topic of M&A, you mentioned China here, several times before, and we know that it's positive for your profitability. Is that still on top of your sort of M&A agenda, acquisitions in China or?
Yeah, and, I mean, we're still working on, as we said, of course, speed boats, as we call it, aerospace, medical and healthcare is high on the agenda. We see good possibilities-
Mm
... in medical and healthcare to buy them both for geographical exposure, but also our segment exposure, and become, let's say, a complete supplier. That, that market is still very fragmented. Moving into the semicon area now, we did this Korean acquisition. Of course, there is more-
Mm
... semiconductors markets in the world, which is of interest for us. So that is still working on, and we're still keeping, we say, aerospace, medical and healthcare, semicon, and also some-
Mm
... some pockets of consolidation in industrial solutions as well. I mean, although it's gonna be smaller, if you do an acquisitions in industrial solutions, it's probably gonna be on the smaller side, but it's gonna be strengthening already strong position. So we see, yeah, solid, let's say, solid possibilities for acquisitions. And, I mean, valuation has gone down as well. You have to comment on that. So, so of course, it, as I say, compared to a year ago or something, we see, we can say Fredrik, substantially lower valuations in a few areas, which makes it more-
Mm
... attractive. And since we, in more or less all acquisitions, have also a good synergy, so that makes the sometimes these acquisition multiples, very attractive. If you look at the kind of lower valuations in combination with our synergies. And that is why also, once again, I mean, I'm not surprised, but on the industrial solutions, some of these acquisitions we're looking there is actually looking, becoming fairly attractive. So we continue to scout that, and we continue to watch it carefully. We don't see any movement, if I may say, from private equity players yet. I mean, there is not really any. They are still very slow, and, I mean, not really. So the processes we're running is mainly, only, I should say, again, strategics. We don't really see any private equity players yet. And, I mean-
Okay
... as we are working mainly on acquisitions with private individuals, and if they decide to sell, they want to sell now, so that, we feel, is a good timing to continue to scout for good acquisitions.
Okay. Thank you very much for answering my questions.
The next question comes from Timothy Lee from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi. Hi, thanks for taking my questions. First question about your guidance again. So you're guiding like a stable demand environment in the next quarter, but can you give us a little bit more color on the relative performance of the two segments? It seems like in fourth quarter, we definitely see a little bit better progress in terms of sales improvement in Sealing Solutions. So what do you see in the first quarter developments, especially for the two segments that we saw?
Tim, our guidance is probably... We don't see any difference between Sealing Solutions and Industrial Solutions. It's the same for both. And I mean, there is kind of ups and downs all across, but overall, we believe, as we see in this quarter, of course, we can discuss one or two percentage points up and down, but that's gonna continue like that. But overall, we don't see any major difference between the kind of sales development in the two business areas.
Understood. Understood. The second question is about China. So you mentioned, it seems to be improving in terms of orders. Can you give us a bit color about what end markets in China you're seeing better improvement so far? And whether you see the overall improvement is like a seasonal impact or like a real improvement in the underlying demand? Because like in fourth quarter, obviously, it's a peak season in China, in general, in many of the industries. So I just want to have a bit more about the momentum in China, what's going on.
In China, we can say we see an overall, let's say, development and a positive development basically in all subsegments. I mean, we see automotive continuing good way, engineering or machinery, which has been kind of probably the more softer ones, whether it's Sany, Zoomlion, and all of those, has been a little bit careful. We see they're getting back and placing orders. We also see infrastructure investment continuing in tunnels and harbors and all of that. We see overall a general better development in China. It's been a very soft market. Customers were very cautious. We will see that they're starting to believe a little more in future. We have had very short order cycles. They start to give new longer-term orders.
So that is, we read it, our reading is that there is better kind of sentiment coming, and it's better people starts to believe again. Because it's been a kind of extraordinary low, if I may say. So of course, if... And that is why we need to watch a little bit more, what's gonna happen here beyond Chinese New Year and see what that is coming up. Now, we're only a week away from that one, and we noticed that some of the factories has already closed. I mean, they have longer breaks than usual, but they have been placing orders to for us to execute here, let's say, after the Year of the Dragon has started. So then we will get into, and we will, we look more positive in general.
I don't really are looking at Fredrik, but, I mean, I don't think we want to highlight anything specific. It is more a general improvement all across.
I agree with you, Peter.
Yeah.
Yeah, very clear. Thanks.
There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.
Great. Thanks. Thanks for interest in Trelleborg, and sorry for the mishap again here in the beginning. We will make sure it doesn't happen again, but that's the way it is sometimes. I mean, thanks for following Trelleborg, as we are now leaving this solid quarter and now focus on the future again, developing and creating a better Trelleborg, less cyclical, more exposed to high growth segments, and that is a development that will continue. And hopefully, we will continue to present an even better Trelleborg going forward. And then, as usual, if you have any follow-up questions, I'm available, Fredrik is available, and Christofer is available. So hope to see you soon, and do take care, and speak to you soon.