Good morning and welcome everyone to our Q4 2023 presentation. My name is Emil Sallnäs, and together with our CFO, Linn Gäfvert, I will present today. This is the agenda for today, and before we go into the quarterly update and financials, I just quickly want to start by giving you a short introduction to the Viva Wine Group. In the group, we have two major segments: the Nordics and the eCom. In the Nordic monopoly market, we are the market leader in wine. We also have a profitable eCom business in Europe with a strong growth potential. Our operating companies are in the Nordic monopoly markets: Sweden, Finland, and Norway, while our eCom business is based in Germany, which is our main market. In total, our eCom market covers 10 European countries. Now let's move on to the quarterly update and the performance summary.
First of all, I would like to highlight our strong performance in the Nordics. Despite soft markets, we reported record-high market shares in the Nordics. Our net sales for the group increased by 4.3% in Q4, with an organic growth of 4.4%. The adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.3% was down versus last year and was negatively impacted by significant FX effects in the Nordics, along with some one-off effects in the quarter that Linn will explain a little bit more about later on. Finally, the board of directors proposes the annual general meeting, an ordinary dividend of SEK 1.55 per share. One of the major events in the quarter was that we, by the end of the quarter, signed an agreement to acquire Target Wines in Norway, and the transaction was completed in the beginning of February.
The purchase price amounted to NOK 44 million, and it is expected to contribute with an EBITDA of between NOK 6 million and NOK 7 million and a turnover of NOK 18 million-NOK 20 million in 2024. With own brands like Giovanni Barcelli and Marco Pontarelli in the highly popular Piemonte segment, Target Wines will further strengthen our position in the Nordics. Now it's time to look at the financial performance, and I will hand over the word to Linn.
Thank you, Emil. We have a strong net sales growth of 4.3% for the group in the quarter, and that is despite soft markets. The Nordics is the driver, and all countries in the segment contribute: Sweden, Finland, and Norway. Group organic growth even slightly better, with 4.4% in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA, here we continue to see pressure. The main reason is the lower gross margin percentage, down from 22.3% to 19.2% this year. The driver is the negative FX development in Sweden and Norway. Now, the headwinds have eased somewhat related to the FX, but although they have eased due to our hedging policy, it will take another quarter before we see the positive effects in our gross margins. However, we have positive contributions from price adjustments and cost control. In the quarter, we also have one-off effects, as Emil mentioned.
It is mainly related to our active M&A agenda within eCom, and we have some minor restructuring costs relating to the consolidations of our consumer platforms in Sweden. Our net working capital decreased from last year and has a stable trend towards net sales. Our net debt is well within our targets. The increased level compared to last year is mainly related to the pressured EBITDA margin in the Nordics and some positive effects last year related to the sale of our warehouse. Looking at the cash flow starting with the quarter, we have a strong cash flow from operating activities during the quarter. Our investing activities of SEK 20 million are related to the new eCom warehouse. Amortization is at a lower level compared to last year, and that is a result of our refinancing.
To summarize the year, we have a stable cash flow from operating activities, and our cash flow from financing activities is impacted by the refinancing. The refinancing, as mentioned, will have a positive impact going forward.
Thank you, Linn. So now over to the performance by segments. So I'm again very proud to say that our sales volumes have increased more than the market, and we are reporting record-high market shares in all the Nordic monopoly markets. For the Nordic market combined, we reported a market share of 21.4%, which is an increase of 1.5 percentage points from last year. Very impressive, in my opinion. We strengthened our position as the number one supplier in Sweden, and we also became number one in Finland, which we are very proud of. Also in Norway, we made a significant jump in market share to 6.4%. The increase in volume and market shares in the Nordics is exclusively organic and is driven by our proactive work and agile and consumer-centric business model.
As mentioned, we've had strong performance in the Nordics, and it has come from both partner brands and owned brands. I'd like to mention a few examples from each market. In Sweden, we welcome a new partner, Antiche Terre from Valpolicella in Italy, who from November worked with Iconic Wines in Sweden. In Finland, we would like to mention our own brand, Casa Marrone. It is a very successful brand developed in Sweden by the wine team, but which has now been very well received in Finland and will have full distribution in the Alko shops from 2024. In Norway, one impressive development in 2023 was the J. Moreau Chardonnay bag-in-box, a partner brand which increased in sales with over 100% in the year.
Taking a look at our net sales for the Nordic segment, it increased with 6.8% in the quarter. The increase is driven by both volume increases and price increases. The Adjusted EBITDA decreased in Q4, and the main driver is the lower gross margin, going from 17.2%-13.9% this year, negatively impacted by the FX effects mentioned before. The FX effects have stabilized a bit, but it will take another quarter before visible in the gross margins. I want to highlight that we have positive contributions from well-balanced price adjustments and also good cost control.
Moving over to the segment Viva eCom, the European e-commerce market has continued to be weak in the quarter and also during Christmas sales. Despite the current market conditions, Viva eCom is performing relatively well, and our estimates are that we are performing better than the overall market when it comes to both sales and profitability. We've had a busy year finalizing our synergy work with regards to the new centralized warehouse. Looking forward, we see that the consumer sentiment is still low in Germany, which is our main market, and we have not yet seen any significant improvement in the market. We do expect the market to continue to be soft in the beginning of the year, but we are still hopeful that the market will return to growth again in 2024.
Yes, and looking at the numbers, net sales are down for eCom in the quarter. Consumer sentiment continued to be low, as Emil mentioned, also during Christmas season. Organic growth was negative in the quarter of 3.3%. That is, however, an improvement compared to last year. The gross margin is stronger than last year, reaching 41.7% in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin is lower, and that is related to the lower sales.
Moving over to mention a few words about sustainability, which is a very important and integrated part of our business and something that we work on a daily basis and in all parts of our business. We are committed to reducing our CO2 emissions per liter until 2030, and we are aiming to achieve net zero climate impact by 2050. During the year, we have been focusing on improving methods for measurement and data collection. Of course, we are, as many companies, preparing for CSRD, which is coming in the coming years. Before our final remarks, I would like to comment a little bit on our financial targets. When it comes to the growth target, we are reaching and beating the organic growth level for the Nordics in 2023 and are well above 4%.
In the eCom segment, we are, as already mentioned, not reaching our target and expect the market to be soft in the next quarters. Regarding our profitability target, it is, as in previous quarters, the other way around. The eCom segment is in line with our target, while the Nordics is still lagging due to the currency effects. Going forward, for the Nordic segments, we see that FX rates have gradually improved, but as Linn has mentioned, there will be a delay before we see it fully in our margins. The net debt to EBITDA ratio is well below our target of 2.5. And finally, the board has proposed a dividend of SEK 1.55 per share, which is above our target on a yearly basis but in line with our target over a three-year period. Going into 2024, we have strong market positions in both the Nordics and the eCom.
We have managed to outperform and gain market shares in the Nordic markets despite difficult market conditions, and our eCom business is also performing relatively well. Going into 2024, we will focus on improving the margins in the Nordics, and we will have a sales focus in the eCom. Sorry. To support the growth, we are also actively working in the M&A market. And as mentioned, we have completed one transaction in the quarter with Target Wines. In M&A for the eCom segment, we are also very active, but the trend of sellers and buyers having very different views on valuation continues. Finally, to repeat the message from last quarter, we remain very confident in our business model, our strong teams, and we are looking forward to 2024. So now it's time for the Q&A session, and we will start with questions by the phone.
If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Johan Fred from SEB. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi guys. Thank you for taking my questions. First one on Nordics. Impressive growth. But could you add some color on what drove this sort of continued volume growth, especially in Norway and Finland, please? That's my first question.
In Finland and partly in Norway, it is, as mentioned in previous calls, a result of a long-term work that is now showing the good effects. The Casa Marrone brand, for example, that I mentioned under Finland, was launched in Finland six years ago, but it's now that it's really getting into the market. So for some products, the development is quite slow. But in general, it's all about our consumer-centric model and being very quick and agile in adapting to the market. So it's a little bit the same explanations as you have heard in previous quarters. So nothing special that stands out, but in general. And I mean, the increased sales are all over different product lines and different categories as well.
Okay, makes sense. Looking into 2024, what is realistic to sort of extrapolate or expect in terms of volume growth given the strong year you've had in 2023?
We expect to continue to beat our growth target in the Nordics if that's an indication of sorts. So I mean, that's 4%, at least 4%. So we're quite confident, and the year has not started, according to the numbers that are out, has started very well for us as well.
Okay. But sort of what kind of could you sort of clarify a bit on the potential? You're now the market leader in both Sweden and Finland. Sorry. What is sort of realistic to expect? Could we see that Norway supports the majority of the growth going forward, or sort of yeah, can you extrapolate a bit about that? Thank you.
Yeah, we expect to continue to grow because it is really on a forward-moving trend. We continue to grow very heavily, especially in Finland, but also in Sweden because we have that movement going forward. In Norway, of course, we will get some support by the volumes that come through Target Wines. They will probably grow from a lower level but on a higher percentage. But we do expect growth from all three markets in the coming years, if I'm a little bit more general, but definitely in 2024.
Okay, thank you. And then a question on segment eCom. You mentioned in the report that the market, of course, remains weak, which is tough, I guess. And your strategy to sort of defend profitability while waiting for markets to recover has, of course, been successful to an extent. But my question really is, what are you actively doing to sort of control your own fate in regards to growth? I mean, couldn't this be a good opportunity to drive growth and sort of advance your position in the overall weak market?
No, but definitely. And that's why we say that we have a sales focus in the eCom business. So of course, we will use the possibilities in the market. We are seeing customer acquisition costs going down to levels which we find more attractive. So we are seeing positive signs on that. And the full focus of the teams is to increase the sales while keeping, of course, the costs under control.
Great, makes sense. A final question on the net financial, which was a bit higher than expected. Could you sort of remind us of the dynamics in relations to the FX hedges? And how should we think about this going forward? Is it reasonable to expect that the negative effect will be positively offset by high gross margin, or how should we think about this going forward? Thank you.
Well, we have negative effects in the quarter since the currency has gone down, looking at the end-of-the-year number, SEK to euro. That means that our assets in euro have been revaluated to a lower level. That is both our hedges that have been then getting a lower value, but also our other assets as euro cash assets. That's per 31st of December had a very low value. That hurts the number in the quarter. However, that is the explanation to the financial net being negative in this quarter.
Yes, I get that. But what can we expect going forward? Is this a Q4 effect given the transition into a new year, or especially in relation to the gross margin? Is it going to be a net positive or sort of a net-net effect?
This is on an extremely low level in the quarter since we had this huge effect going from high currency level to low level. So I would say this is a high negative number that we will not expect in Q1 for the financial net.
Very clear. Thank you so much for taking my questions, guys.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Markus Augustsson from Carlsquare. Please go ahead.
Hi there, Emil and Linn. Thank you for taking my questions. So first off, I want to start out with the Nordics. I see that volume has came up with 5.3%, while sales are up a little bit higher by 6.6%. If I understand that correctly, that is partially due to price hikes. I mean, have you already done the price hikes on your top-selling products, or can we expect more price hikes in the upcoming quarter?
There is a price increase coming, especially in Sweden then, from 1st March. So then we can expect price hikes up for Sweden. However, to mention for Q1, we still have the negative impacts from the FX effect. So the gross margins will not really improve that much until Q2. But the effects from the price increases, we will see some further improvement going from 1 March.
All right, thank you. And on Viva eCom, on the topic opening new markets, if you look at the geographical area other, it has grown quite significantly during the last two quarters. I mean, is that due to actually opening new markets, or is it due to further penetration on existing markets other than Germany?
What number do you mean? All eCom is in the eCom segment.
Yeah, I mean, on the geographical distribution, I think it's on page.
Yeah, we have opened new markets, and the focus is the Central European countries.
All right. All right, thank you. One final question regarding non-recurring items here. In the Adjusted EBITDA, you have added, I think it was SEK 8 million. And then there are other non-recurring items that are not included in the Adjusted EBITDA of SEK 6 million. Is that correct?
Yes, that's correct.
All right. Thank you.
And yeah.
Thank you. That was my questions.
All right. I believe that we do not have any more phone questions, but we do have some emailed questions or chat questions. The first one comes from Fredrik Ivarsson at ABG. His first question is, the growth in e-commerce does not seem to pick up pace. Do you expect to reach your growth target of 10%-15% for the segment in 2024? Well, as already mentioned, we know that the year will start slowly and with soft markets. So I would say that we expect the market to grow by the end of 2024, but whether we reach but it's doubtful that we will reach the target of 10%-15%. Next question is, have you seen any particular impacts of the raised excise taxes, which were introduced in the beginning of the year? And that's specifically in Sweden and Finland. That has been.
In Finland, yeah.
Do you have the answer?
Yeah, well, the statistics are just out in the market for January. What we can see is that the volume is down in the markets, but really no change to last year. It was down in the Nordic segments last year as well. There is no trend that the volumes will decrease even more than last year, but weak on the volume side.
Oh, no, you're talking about the market.
The market. Our performance, as Emil mentioned, still looks very strong as the trend we have seen for the Nordic market.
Next question from Fredrik. Do you expect to offset some of last year's FX headwinds in the Nordics through more price increases in order to get closer to the previous gross margin of around 20%, or do you need some FX tailwind to get there?
Yeah, well, I would say that we would need some FX tailwinds to get back to that level, of course. And in Q1, we will have negative impacts from our hedges, especially in January and February. It will ease out in March, and then we also have the price increases. But I would say for Q1, we can't expect any big improvements. And seeing as Sweden, which is our biggest segment and also is the most exposed to currency, we have been around 13%. So I don't think that we will see a big improvement for Q1. But going forward, we don't have any huge negative impact from hedges, and we will see full effects from our price increases. However, to get to the 20%, it will take some we need some tailwind.
Perfect. Fredrik's last question. 2023 CapEx was driven by a new eCom warehouse in Germany. Do you have any other large investments planned for 2024, and would you be open to give some guidance for full year 2024 CapEx, please?
Yeah, well, I would say that we don't have any huge initiatives planned for CapEx spending during the year. I would say that we will be back on our normal levels on CapEx spending.
Thank you, Frederik, for your questions. Now over to questions from Rauli at Inderes. His first question is, can you discuss the margin drivers for 2024? Is FX still impacting negatively in the beginning of the year, assuming current FX rates? Is there some other notable negative margin drivers? Pricing will be clearly positive, I presume.
Yes, and I think we have discussed that topic. But let me repeat then that for Q1, it will be no significant improvement in the gross margin level from the price increases. That is due to the hedges in specifically Sweden. Going forward, as mentioned, from March, we will see price hikes up. If the FX is at today's level, which you never know, then we can expect increases in the margins going from Q2 and forward. Then there are also new price increase options in September. Positive outlook from Q2 and forward on gross margin level.
Then there is a second question from Rauli. How would you describe your capital allocation priorities? You are proposing over 100% payout while also looking for acquisitions with a fairly leveraged balance sheet. Which one is more important for you, dividends or growth investments acquisitions? Well, I think both are very important for us. For us, it's always about finding the balance between the two. Currently, we are finding the balance by proposing the dividend, which is good for our shareholders. We still have a good capacity, especially through the refinancing, to make also acquisitions and investments.
Yeah, and also, as we have mentioned, if we do any larger acquisition, we will be looking at the possibility to raise capital. That is a part of our strategy.
Great. Then we have some questions from GLI. Norway versus Finland. Solid volume growth in both markets, but two different stories when it comes to price. In Norway, the average price (mix-driven or strategic pricing to gain market share?) has come down a lot, adjusted for FX, while it is the opposite situation in Finland. Please elaborate on this apparent difference of the underlying drivers. Also, could you clarify to what extent the price decline in Norway is driven by a like-for-like decrease, lower prices on same wine, or a mix shift?
Well, starting with Norway, the prices have gone down, but we can expect the prices actually to go up in Norway if you look at price per liter, starting from the beginning of this year. So they will be increasing in Norway. In Finland also, we can expect increases looking at net sales per liter starting already from 1st of January.
If you have any further questions, I think on that matter, I think it's better maybe to send us an email. It's quite public.
Yeah, we can also have a follow-up meeting if anyone wants.
Complicated answer. Would you expect the next question? Would you expect an increase in Adjusted EBITDA for eCom in tandem with your expectations of an increased revenue for the segment in 2024? All else equal, the recent decreases in repeat customers would perhaps indicate a need to increase marketing expenditure in the customer base if the customer base is to increase going forward. I think that's a very correct analysis. We've always tried to balance the growth and the EBITDA. So that is a balance that we are working with on a daily level. Then, of course, we are working on, and this is, the warehouse is one example of being more efficient on all other matters except for the marketing. But there is always a connection between the marketing and the sales development in eCom.
Yeah, but we need more sales to increase our Adjusted EBITDA margin. That is correct.
Your next question is, your lowest EBITDA margin ever, and given the seasonality of the business, Q1 should be yet even lower. Are you close to the margin trough now? And what would it take to get back to double-digit EBITDA margin?
Yeah, well, as mentioned, we will see improvements, especially for the Nordic segment, from Q2 going forward. But Q1 is still weighing in with the negative FX effect. So we expect it not to be a strong Q1 in relation to that aspect. But going forward, absolutely, for the Nordic markets, we will see improvements during the year.
Next question on the same topic. Do you expect to get back to the 20% gross margin? I assume that reflects to the Nordics. You previously had within a year, or do you expect to remain below 15% for the foreseeable future?
Well, we expect us to go up percentage-wise. But as mentioned, Q1, we will not see any big gross margin hike-ups. But from Q2, we will see improvements. But to reach over 20%, we will need some tailwind from FX.
Then on the same topic, obviously, there is always a major volume shift between Q4 and Q1 due to seasonality. Is there also a typical seasonal shift in gross margin driven by product mix between Q4 and Q1?
In general, there are some higher margin products sold in Q4. But in Q1, we also have some of the Easter effect. And Easter is also a season where we have some higher margin products again. So I would say it depends on where the seasons are at. So it could be a bit higher in the Christmas season. But also given the Easter, that is also a time where it's up a bit.
A last question regarding the CapEx. What would you consider to be a normalized CapEx level for the group?
Yeah, normalized CapEx level is to not include the Q4 where we have the investments for the warehouse. So it will be back to the trend as we have seen previous years. You can see it towards net sales, and then you will get to a good estimation.
Then there is a question regarding leasing payment level going forward. We had SEK 18 million in 2023 and SEK 6 million in Q4 2023. Leasing payment level.
Yeah, I would say that Q4 is a good estimate to how to see it going forward.
Great. And then a final question from GLI, which I think we have answered. What is the additional SEK 6 million in one-offs you just mentioned?
Yeah, the additional one-offs is that SEK 5 million of those are related mainly to our active work in the M&A field within eCom. And SEK 1 million is related to the restructuring of our consumer clubs in Sweden, consolidating them to be more efficient going forward.
Great. Thank you for all the questions. I believe we do not have any more questions right now. So I'd like to thank you for listening in to this presentation. Our next report, the Q1, will be published on May 16. And then we'll all see you then again. Thank you and goodbye.
Thank you.