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Earnings Call: Q4 2024

Jan 30, 2025

Björn von Sivers
CFO, VNV Global

Welcome to VNV Global Q4 and 12 months 2024 report conference call. On the call today, we have Per Brilioth, CEO; Dennis Mohammad, Investment Manager; and myself, Björn von Sivers, CFO of VNV. As per usual, Per will start with a summary of the developments during the quarter, followed by an overview of the more meaningful portfolio constituents. After that, we will open up for Q&A and as a reminder, if you want to ask a question, please use the Q&A function here on the Zoom, and we'll try to address it towards the end. With that, I'll hand over to Per. Please go ahead.

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Thanks, Björn. So we'll kick off with this usual sort of, you've seen this in the report, NAV is up like 1% in dollar terms to $580 million, which in Swedish crowns is just under 49 Swedish crowns. That's up 10% in Swedish crowns. For the year, we're down like a bit over to like 13%, just under 13%, which follows down like 5% the year before. And that's all sort of negative, but it sort of feels still like a consolidation period after that sort of monstrous drop in 2022, starting the Ukraine war and all of that. So consolidation period. And overall, I mean, we'll talk more about it as we go through the report here, but we really see that there's some good signs in the market. Pricing in our portfolio, but also elsewhere, gets down at a premium to NAV rather than a discount.

And the companies are doing well. So although there's no dramatic sort of changes in the NAV as of this report, and still it's sort of in some consolidation period, it really feels like something's starting to happen. But as we've talked about at length, I think, and sorry for repeating ourselves, but over the course of this year, it's really been the focus has really been sort of to, one, get into a net cash state at our balance sheet and pay off the debt. We've sold stuff throughout the year, first sort of portfolio around Booksy, and then Gett yet to close, but we think we'll close in the Q1 this year. And then a smaller portfolio in these last quarters and bringing that to $148 million. And we'll come back to, but that's very much been the focus.

But now with Gett moving into sort of its closing phase, then we're really in net cash and then can start to focus on not selling assets and paying down debt, but instead investing. And as we sort of talked about again and again, really with our stock trading where it is, there's nothing that sort of compares well to it. So that's out there. And the other big sort of theme, if you will, during the course of 2024 is this trying to help the companies to get into profitability. And yeah, the direction of travel is the right one, although there's of course more work to be done. So 81% is EBIT positive. We've sort of not broken out Voi now because Voi is actually EBIT positive. And then of course also EBIT positive.

But at the VOI level, we need to talk about EBIT because they depreciate these scooters. So 80% of the portfolio positive in this manner. And happy about the direction of travel, but not content because our ambition really is to sort of have one of our holdings and ideally several holdings get into that sort of profitable growth and profitable to the extent that that cash also goes back to shareholders. The ambition is really to have one of our entities here develop portfolio holdings into a dividend payer that can give

us a stream of cash flow in good times and also in bad times, which decreases the volatility around the portfolio and can make you able to sort of access liquidity also when times are tough. Now I think we're starting to get through that consolidation phase, but nevertheless, really this direction of travel is of course very, very important. Yeah, balance sheet. Björn, do you want to run us through these next couple of slides?

Björn von Sivers
CFO, VNV Global

Sure. Happy to. Yeah, no, so quarter ended with, as Per mentioned, net asset value of just below 49 SEK per share or $4.44 per share, down 1% in dollar terms over quarter and up roughly 10% in SEK. Notably, we closed the quarter with approximately $60 million in cash and cash equivalents, including some small liquidity management investments. The debt now stands at $77 million, and it's the bond that we refinanced earlier this quarter. If we move to the next slide, I thought I'll just run through the main developments during the quarter in terms of fair value change and getting from the start, BlaBlaCar, our largest holding was down 9% during the quarter. The valuation is, as a reminder, derived from the sum of the parts valuation that we further refined during the year.

The fair value change during the quarter is driven by a lower adjusted peer multiple as well as a weak euro relative to the USD. By year-end, BlaBlaCar position represents approximately SEK 17.5 per share or 36% of the NAV. Moving down to Gett, flat valuation as it's still being based on the ongoing transaction, which we now expect to close during the Q1 of 2025. Gett represents roughly SEK 7 per share, and moving on to VOI, which is the largest uplift during the quarter, up 26%, driven as we move the

valuation from last transaction-based valuation based on the transaction in early 2024 to a forward-looking EBITDA-based model here at year-end. VOI now represents SEK 8.5 per share, and these three in aggregate represent roughly SEK 33 per share or just below 70% of the total NAV. Again, cash increased over the quarter to roughly $60 million. And with that short introduction to the movers of the P&L, I'll hand it back to Per to move through further down in the portfolio and then open up for Q&A.

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Are you done with this slide? I guess this just illustrates what we talked about, yeah, with some colors. Good, yeah. Okay, so the portfolio is something you'll have seen before. The change here is that VOI on the back of this new mark is a little bit higher than Gett. And also in the portfolio, a company we may not have talked about before, but it's Flo/ Palta that they show up sort of in these top 10 at around 1%. And that's not because we bought or sold anything, but we've had them on two lines before, and they're really sort of the same company. Palta is the holding company for Flo. So Palta has a few different... It's like a little VNV, and they have different portfolio holdings, but the bulk of the portfolio is really Flo. So it's really the same thing.

Flo, as you remember, is the world's largest period tracker and like a digital platform for women's health, but with a base around the period tracker, which we were very excited about and very happy that we own at least a piece of it and it shows up now. But anyway, that's not a transaction. It's just rebooking or sort of putting two things that are really the same thing into one line instead of two lines. We'll walk you through a couple of these different sort of portfolio holdings and give you an update. I think the background of BlaBlaCar, you all know.

I mean, as Björn said, it's marked down during this quarter, which is really sort of a reflection of that the political sort of volatility, for lack of a better word, in France is having some effect because they need a law to be passed to get their income stream around energy saving certificates to come back on. So for technical reasons, that law was taken out of service in the summer. And then, of course, there's been a lack of a government to sort of process laws. And then there was a government, and then now there's new governments. It's just taking time. We expect it to come back at a slightly lower level than before, but still good sort of income stream for the company.

And the uncertainty, if you will, around that is, I think that's the best way to describe that the mark is coming off a bit. Apart from that, there's many, many positives around BlaBlaCar staying on this Energy Saving Certificates point. As we've spoken about before, it's now being launched. It has launched in Spain, which is very encouraging. Spain is still smaller in terms of aggregate terms than France, but still sort of a meaningful contributor cash-wise. And I'd also say that for us as financial analysts, I think it'll be very productive to sort of see these kinds of income streams not being a single country sort of affair, but also in several countries to sort of make it into something that's more diversified and hence stable.

I think the good thing with this law being taken out of service and back on in France is that it's been, you could say that it's been taken out in the backyard and kicked around, and now it's back in a more and more robust form. So we can also sort of put full value on it when we look at it as a sort of some of the parts or however you sort of would approach to sort of value BlaBlaCar. So positive that Spain is coming on as well for multiple reasons. Other than that, the acquisition of the bus marketplace in Turkey was, of course, closed and is very positive. That company is doing really, really well. It's big. It's biggest in Turkey, second biggest in the world, and after likely RedBus in India.

These bus marketplaces in emerging markets and the fragmented nature of them really gel well with the car business, the carpooling business. That's, of course, the core of BlaBlaCar. And Turkey is a very interesting emerging market, and it's big there. Speaking of India, where there is an equivalent to Obilet in RedBus, it's a market where the operations of BlaBlaCar really have taken off of late. I mean, they've been active in India as long as we've been around the company, but it's been small. And as with marketplaces, you can't really force the growth on it. It takes the growth will sort of have to go on itself. But India has sort of compounded well over these years and is now starting to become a big thing, unmonetized.

So adding to a GMV level, but not yet revenues or even less earnings, but getting to a very, very interesting size. What else on BlaBlaCar? Yeah, I mean, the company overall is doing well. I mean, PAX, Passengers, it's growing. That's a good sort of good pointer for GMV. It's growing by about 20%-25%. And then revenue moves around a little bit country by country. And these energy saving certificates in France are obviously sort of lowers revenue growth there, but we'll come back on at some point and then get them back on. But if you look at GMV overall, some of it's monetized, some of it's not. Passengers driving GMV, then you're looking at like 20%-25%. Yeah, I think that's sort of a quick update on BlaBlaCar. Next out is VOI. Dennis, could you run us through VOI?

Dennis Mohammad
Investment Manager, VNV Global

Happy to. Thank you. VOI, as you all know, it's a leading European micromobility operator. It operates e-scooters, but also e-bikes across around 100 cities in Europe. If you go to the next slide, Per, the big news on VOI, which happened at the very beginning of Q4, but before we actually released our Q3 report, so we've already talked about it, is that they raised a bond, first of its kind in the micromobility space. It's a €50 million bond, 6.75% spread over Euribor, four-year duration, and part of a larger €125 million framework. This will enable the company to invest into growth CapEx for the first time in quite a few years. So we're very excited about that.

If you go to the next slide again, the other big news, which came out yesterday, is that they closed 2024 with a positive adjusted EBIT for the first time in the company's history and also the first mobility company in the space to do so. They grew revenues roughly 13% on an annual basis at VOI. That growth accelerated during the Q4 , which was up 33% versus the Q4 of 2023. So growth accelerating during the year. They closed the year with roughly eight percentage points higher vehicle profit margin. The vehicle profit margin you could think of is a good proxy for gross margin in this industry, reaching 57%. So that's revenues less charging logistics and repair costs. So quite a big kind of movement there. This all resulted in roughly €17 million of adjusted EBITDA and around €100,000 of adjusted EBIT.

Obviously, a big milestone. The company is now fully profitable, and what's very exciting is that this growth, that 13% isn't maybe super high growth if you look at our overall portfolio, but we are very certain this growth will accelerate now in 2025 given the proceeds from the bond, so as you can see on the far left graph here on this slide, the black bar, sorry, the black line saying that the average fleet size has been roughly 93,000 vehicles will grow quite significantly, and as you can see historically, that is a good proxy for revenue growth, as we're expecting the bond proceeds to really fuel growth at VOI and to, in parallel with that, continue to see margin expansion, so a profitable year all the way to the last growth, so to speak, in 2025.

So it's on the back of this that we wrote up VOI. 26% took it from the last transaction, which was an early Q1 2024 event, to a model that looks at EV EBITDA. I think that's it on VOI. Sorry, one final thing. They continue to win tenders. They have the highest regulated market share in the industry still. They won tenders in France, Spain, Germany, and Sweden in Q4 as well. So that's also very encouraging to see that the moats are getting stronger and stronger as we go along.

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Thanks, Dennis. Going on here then, Gett. Yeah, it's taken much longer than expected to get the antitrust in Israel to approve the acquisition of Gett by Pango. Pango is one of several parking apps in the country. And Gett, you know what it is. We have good reason to believe, though, that, and what we understand is that our expectation is that this will close in this Q1 . And there's been a lot of interaction with the authorities around this of late, which we think has been very productive. And so when we talk next

time, we think this will have closed. In the meantime, the company is doing very well. I mean, it's growing. It's like $13 million or so of EBITDA last year, 2024. And big, big cash generation. So cash and cash equivalent. At the balance sheet, it's like $60-plus million dollars, no debt. This is really sort of a solid company. And yeah, we don't expect we'll own it for very long, but it's still good to see the company performing well. Next out is Numan. And Dennis, yeah, you take us through Numan.

Dennis Mohammad
Investment Manager, VNV Global

Happy to. So Numan is an online health clinic focusing on men's health. Historically, we've focused a lot on issues such as or verticals such as erectile dysfunctions and hair loss. But now a lot of the growth and a lot of the revenues are coming from their weight loss vertical, which was launched about a year or two ago. They closed a very strong 2024, served more than 215,000 patients in the UK. They grew revenues more than 130% year over year. If you compare December of 2024 to December of 2023, it was a

200% growth. So growth accelerating throughout the year there as well, and they are EBITDA profitable as well. A lot of this growth is obviously coming from GLP-1 related treatments. And we're seeing this growth continuing well into 2025 as well. We expect quite significant growth also for 2025 alongside continued profitability on the EBITDA level. It's on the back of a strong 2024, continued growth in 2025, and strong peer multiple trading that we wrote up Numan this quarter. We carry it now, our 17% stake at $45 million as per Q4.

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Great. Onwards to HousingAnywhere. Not so much to report about there. The company is performing sort of as per expectation, and it takes a long time to build sort of these marketplaces, but the opportunity is large, and there's just not that much sort of new that's happened since we spoke last time. So we'll press on here and go to Breadfast, and Björn, could you walk us through the update on Breadfast?

Björn von Sivers
CFO, VNV Global

Yeah, no. As a reminder, Breadfast is Egypt's leading online grocery brand and quick commerce business. Deliver groceries under 60 minutes from 39 different locations. And here, I mean, the company continues to have very strong momentum. They have 6,000 SKUs, and they deliver now close to 1 million orders on a monthly basis to over 300,000 active users. We own 9% of the company and value it on the basis of the transaction that happened mid last year. I think, I mean, the company is doing well. Egyptian macro is a little bit more stable. And also the vast majority of these 39 different fulfillment points are completely profitable. So very exciting prospects here in our view. So that's the short update on Breadfast. And then also Bokadirekt, as a reminder, the leading beauty booking marketplace and SaaS service for the beauty industry in Sweden.

13K merchants, 2 million monthly users. Strong market position, very, very dominant. Last year, mid last year, onboarded a new very experienced CEO, Niklas Grawé, who's run Hitta previously, to come in to drive further growth and profitability and especially accelerated growth. We own 15% of the company and value it based on EV revenue multiple model. Over to you, .

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Great. I think that sort of concludes the stuff that we wanted sort of to introduce to you. What I forgot to say on the overall sort of portfolio, when we look ahead, we wrote about this in the report, but just to mention it here too, when we look ahead to 2025, we see sort of the, well, the bulk of the portfolio, the larger holdings here getting the portfolio to 25% revenue growth. But we really see profit margins increasing. So at sort of an earnings level, much, much higher growth than that. So good outlook over the year that we're now in. So with that, I thought we'd sort of organize ourselves to take any questions that you may have. Björn, do you want to walk us through how that works again or?

Björn von Sivers
CFO, VNV Global

Yeah, sure. As a reminder, there is this Q&A function on the Zoom where you can type in your question. Or if you want to also raise this hand, I will try to open up your mic. But I mean, we have some questions here to start. The first, maybe for Per, question. If and when VOI or BlaBlaCar, or any other of the more mature companies IPO, what will VNV's general stance be? Do you retain the shares in the public market or do you strictly avoid holding listed investments?

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Yeah, we don't have a strict thing that we can never hold listed things. There's one aspect to it is that since we are listed and all of you guys who can own our stock are also able to own listed stocks, it's sort of less of a point for us to sort of have listed portfolio holdings because you can invest into that yourself. In the past, we have done different things when our portfolio holdings have gone public. Sometimes we've sort of given them out on a pro rata basis, and sometimes we've sort of held on to them and then sold them over time.

I think for that angle, in that perspective, which I think is sort of relevant also for when we, sorry, when some of our existing portfolio holdings go public in the future, we've sort of taken an approach that if the sort of return profile of the holding is sort of similar to what we're looking for, which is sort of, well, really sort of 25%-ish IRRs is what we're expecting, or that's when we get paid in our sort of stock option-like programs. If that's present and also that we can sort of still play a role in the company, that if the situation has been, which is sort of typical, that we've been present at the company for a long time and can be sort of a more active and value-adding owner to the company, we may stick around.

Of course, you've seen us over these past sort of decade. We've been very active in buying back our own stock, and we can't really stay away from our own stock when the trades are at a discount. If you can sell stuff at NAV and buy at a discount, that's obviously something that's very attractive, and we've been known to do that. That's also something. Finally, we really think it's good for our type of companies to have portfolio holdings that mature to, yeah, that grow and mature to the level where they pay

dividend to us. In such a company, VOI, for example, becomes a dividend payer and lists, and we think there's an upside, and we're sort of obviously been very close to the company since day zero. That may be one that we keep and then hold on to it and take the dividends and sort of reduce the volatility around our portfolio through that dividend stream. Anyway, long-winded answer. I hope it gives you some help.

Björn von Sivers
CFO, VNV Global

Thank you. Another question on blah, blah here. Could you provide some additional color on blah, blah, cost performance outside this volatility around the energy certificates? How has the core business been doing?

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Yeah, so sort of the mature markets of Europe, like France, is not high growth. It's sort of flat-ish growth, but very stable and earnings-wise. It's sort of like a very mature classified. In Sweden, we have Hemnet here. It doesn't grow much, but the market doesn't grow, but the company's profitability may grow and sort of very high, very strange, that sort of thing. So that, I think, would be a fair description of Europe overall. Obviously, Spain is growing a lot now, and energy certificates are being sort of introduced, and that also has a marketing effect, and that's exciting. But overall, sort of the mature markets are growing less, but profitable. And then you've got the emerging markets, which are just killing it in terms of growth.

I talked about India before, this Brazil, Mexico, that are showing strong growth, but are yet to be monetized or are very, very early in the monetization. So it doesn't really show up on the revenue side of things. But that strong growth is very encouraging because it also gets you to a size state where monetization becomes a very low-hanging fruit. So important. And then on the bus side of things, yeah, the emerging market ones, Obilet, essentially, is doing very well.

Björn von Sivers
CFO, VNV Global

Thank you. And then perhaps a question on VOI for Dennis. What's our latest take on the current regulatory environment? Have there been any new developments as of late? And how does VOI's roadmap for tenders in 2025 look? Do they need to win new markets, or can they deploy more scooters in their existing markets? A bit more color on that fleet development.

Dennis Mohammad
Investment Manager, VNV Global

Happy to. On the first question on the regulatory environment, I think the trend that we've seen for the past couple of years is continuing, which is more and more cities across Europe going for tenders. This is very good for the users. It's very good for the cities, and it's good for the operators because you get fewer players. The ones that are serious are the ones that have a chance at winning. You get less competition as an operator. And for the users, it's obviously better because you don't need to have 10 apps just to ride e-scooters in any given city, so each operator also gets to more of a critical scale in order to be able to operate profitably, so we're seeing that trend continuing. We're seeing quite a few cities going for retenders.

Cities such as Oslo, I think, are going for their third or fourth retender this year. The good news there is that we're seeing that the duration of the contracts is actually getting longer. We saw it in France and Le Havre, for instance, which I believe was a four-year contract that VOI won in the last quarter. A general trend of more cities tendering and that the contracts are getting longer, which is good. In terms of growth or fleet allocation for 2025 and onwards, given that the competitive landscape has kind of weakened with some shakeout, we saw the Dott-Tier deal about a year ago, and with companies such as Bird going out of business in Europe, etc., we are seeing more space, more white space in existing markets. That would be one source.

But from the hundred cities they are in today, I'm certain that the VOI management team, I know they have identified at least 100 or maybe even 200 more cities in Europe that they want to enter. Some of them are in existing countries that they're already operating in, and some of them are Eastern Europe getting stronger in Southern Europe and some regions in Central Europe as well. Today, the stronghold is really in the DACH region, the Nordics, and the U.K. and Ireland, I would say. So there's quite a lot of land to grab still for VOI. So a combination of both is probably the short answer.

Björn von Sivers
CFO, VNV Global

Thank you. And then I have another question here on, could you add some color on the $10 million of aggregate proceeds you highlighted after the end of the period in the last Q3 report? Did that take place at or around NAV? So those exits all happened in the long tail. On aggregate, they got exited above NAV. And we also noted in the last report that our pro forma cash would be at around $20 million at the end of Q3, including this cash. The main reason why it's not closer to 20 here at the year end, it's in fact

16, is the big movements in FX. Given the fact that our debt is SEK denominated, we bought SEK for those additional proceeds, and that's why we ended up with $60 million in cash at year end. With that, I think we have gone through all of the questions for now. Unless there's anyone popping up in the next few seconds, I'll hand over to Per again to finish off the call.

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Great. You know where to find us, so please just reach out if there's anything that we haven't covered that you want to talk about. The door is open or we'll answer the phone or the email. But thanks for participating, and we'll speak to you all. There'll be an annual report out before we speak again because we'll do this exercise again for the Q1, which is going to be exciting. Thank you.

Björn von Sivers
CFO, VNV Global

Thank you.

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