When was it I gave you the cap? April 19th.
April 19th. One and a half years ago.
Are we live?
Yes.
Hi, everyone. Welcome to day three of our Capital Markets Week. Today is Voi Day. It's super cool to have Fredrik here. Fredrik, the Founder and CEO of Voi. I'm wearing my Voi cap, which Fredrik gave me. I don't know, I think it was one and a half years into the journey of Voi, and we were all super proud to have 1 million rides in April 2019. I'm just wearing it now to see how far we've gone because I think we're clocking 30 million rides as we speak. I'll wear this cap for a while.
It's great to have you all here, and especially you, Fredrik, of course. I think we'll use the sort of the format we've used the other days, which is Fredrik will kick off and do a presentation, and then we'll go to Q&A. If you want to participate in the Q&A, you punch in your questions into the chat or the Q&A function on Zoom. We'll sort of read them out there and take as many as we can. All right. Great. Over to you, Fredrik.
Thank you. Can you hear me?
Yes.
Great. Let's kick off. I will try to share my screen now. Let me know when you can see it.
We can see it.
Great. It's full screen now?
Yeah.
Great. Hello, everyone, virtually this year. It's great to be here. I attended the in-person Capital Markets Day last year in London, a bit more than a year ago, and a lot has happened since then, both in the world, in our industry, micro-mobility, and also for Voi as a company. We are honored to have VNV Global or Vostok New Ventures, as the name was when we got them on board as investors, as our biggest shareholders in.
Quite a few of you might know that I have known VNV Global since I was at Avito, working on the real estate vertical, Domofond and Avito Real Estate a couple of years ago. I think I say the same now as I thought back then, that VNV Global is one of the best investors to have as an entrepreneur if you want to build a sustainable long-term business. I think it's more true than ever.
Quick reminder, Voi Technology, we are providing shared e-scooters and e-bikes all over Europe. Since the beginning of the year, we have also expanded into e-commerce. We are refurbishing our old generation vehicles that last longer than they are competitive on the streets, and we sell them to businesses and to consumers, both for sustainability reasons and also financial reasons, giving them a second, third life. As Per mentioned, we have moved a long way since we went live in Stockholm a couple of years ago. It's August 2018 that we launched here in Stockholm, in Sweden. Since then we have launched in 12 European countries in more than 40 cities. I think when we spoke at the VNV Global CMD last year, we had done approximately 5 million rides. Growth has been exponential.
We continue to focus on the same things as we focused on since day one, to be collaborative with cities, to build long-term relationships with cities. We think micro-mobility long-term will be almost like an infrastructure play, a tech-enabled infrastructure play, where it's super important to be the preferred city partner, which we are so far in Europe. We are extremely focused on cost and unit economics, operational excellence. I'll get back to details on that. My plan today is to talk for approximately 20, 30 minutes and then open up for questions.
If you look at the left-hand graph here, mobility went down a lot. This is overall mobility from Google Citymapper and other mobility intelligence providers. It went down with 80%, 90% when COVID-19 hit Europe in March. Mobility has now recovered in Europe to 50%, 60%, depending on the market. This is overall mobility. We see that micro-mobility, so short-range trips within city centers have recovered faster than any other mobility vertical. If you look at the mid column graph here, you saw that we took a hit in March, April, when our gross revenues went down a lot.
What we saw already in April, in especially the Nordic markets that didn't go into full lockdown or came back from full lockdown earlier than other markets in Europe, was that demand went up very quickly. We paused operations in some markets when COVID-19 hit us, but then came back quickly when we saw the rapid recovery. Since then, gross revenues and rides have increased month-over-month a lot, as you see. We became EBITDA breakeven on Group level for the first time in June. Since then, we have been EBITDA breakeven on Group level for three, four consecutive months.
This was earlier than expected, super positive and happy about that. It's driven by several things, which I will get back to. We see that on a macro level, we have a very strong tailwind now after COVID-19. The green agenda in cities is stronger than ever. Cities want to push out heavy traffic from city centers, and want alternatives to cars, to taxis, and similar modes of getting around. On the consumer side also, people don't want to use public transportation a year like this, going into a crammed bus, metro, or similar, which has benefited us a lot.
We continue to double down on sustainability. When we ask people working at Voi, "Why are you working at Voi?" It's not due to high salaries. The most common answer is impact, that people want to be on the right side of history, that they want to make a change. We will continue to focus on that. Sustainability has been core at Voi since day one. We have focused a lot on our carbon footprint to get it lower than public transportation. In most markets now, we actually have a lower carbon footprint, so CO2 emissions per passenger kilometer than public transportation. It's mainly around vehicle lifetime, so we have got vehicle lifetime up to theoretically four or five years now. As I mentioned, the vehicles last longer now than they are competitive, so that's why we resell them.
The second big thing on sustainability and carbon footprint for us is on operating model, where we have replaced diesel vans and other heavy vehicles that we used initially for operations with electric cargo bikes, electric vehicles, and green energy. Since day one, we've had a few pain points in cities, mainly around parking, visual cluttering, and so on, and also safety. Those two are our main focus when it comes to how to work with cities for the next coming 12 months. We're testing a range of solutions there on the parking side and the clutter side. It's become much better already with incentivized parking zones, with double kickstands, overall better hardware and software. We still have a way to go. We have to really mitigate and solve that pain point.
Safety, as with all modes of transportation, there is a certain risk. What we see now, we're getting smarter and smarter every day. Currently, we see that using an e-scooter or an e-bike, a shared e-scooter or e-bike, is not more dangerous than using your own bike, except what we see from 12:00 A.M. in the night to 4:00 A.M., 5:00 A.M. In the morning, where it seems like more people are using shared e-bikes and e-scooters than normal bikes. That's why we see an increased incident rate compared to normal bikes. Normal hours, when people are not drunk, it's the same incident rate as for bikes. There's still a long way to go there and a lot to do. We're definitely getting there.
When we're out talking to investors, the main questions around us and around the industry is, what has happened in the industry in the last year? Why is Voi the best choice and the winner in this industry? It's mainly around four things as we see it. One, cities and licensing regulations. It's much clearer now how regulations will play out. We're moving towards almost like an oligopolistic market structure, where cities are giving out licenses to one or two players mainly, who are given the right to operate in a city for one to three years in the first iteration of licenses. We think the second iteration of licenses will be five, six, eight years.
Second question mark has been around unit economics, efficiency, profitability. As I mentioned, we have been EBITDA profitable on group level now for several months consecutively, which is of course driven by very strong unit economics on unit and city level. Thirdly, demand and end users. At least in the beginning, I was asked, "Is this a fad, micro-mobility? Will it be like a three-, six-month thing, and then lose its popularity?" I think it's quite clear. What we see in cities is that we're increasing utilization in all markets where we have been one and a half, two years from now.
Fourthly, also, we need capital to finance the growth when it comes to CapEx, hardware, and so on. Historically, we have financed our CapEx, our scooters, e-bikes, and so on through raising equity. It's expensive dilution-wise. Now, for the first time ever in the industry, we have managed to get asset-backed financing in place as we finance hardware going forward increasingly with debt. Quite beneficial debt compared to historical equity, which is a game changer in the industry. It's a game changer for us and will be a huge competitive advantage going into next year.
When we look at our revenues, we see two things. One is that if we zoom out and turn back the tape two years, back then all of our revenues were in unregulated, so free competition markets, and all of our revenues were pay-per-ride transactional revenues. What we see already now is that more and more of our revenues are in protected markets where we have licenses with cities, either exclusive licenses as in the U.K. or shared licenses as in France, as in Italy.
We're also seeing that more and more of our revenues are becoming recurring. From transactional pay-per-ride revenues to monthly, weekly, daily passes to loyalty programs. We think that in a couple of years from now, pretty much all of our revenues will be in protected markets or in licensed markets and more or less recurring. On the subscription programs and on loyalty programs, the revenue quality is increasing quite rapidly now.
In this environment where cities are moving towards licensing, on this slide we put together all European cities that have gone to licensing and handed out licenses. We have won approximately 50% of them. We have won 90% + of all licenses in the U.K. that opened up earlier this year. The only miss we've had really on winning licenses is Paris. We know quite well why we didn't win Paris. Usually we centralize everything related to city relationships, to lobbying, to tender applications and so on. Paris was an important one. We decentralized to the local teams. It was a mistake. We learned from that and quickly took it back to our strong central team again, and since then we have won pretty much everything.
These licenses are now, as I mentioned, they are one, two, in a few cases, three years, with great opportunity, of course, for the holder of the license today to extend it. We are extra proud, of course, for all the wins in the U.K. where we have done a clean sweep so far. West Midlands, Birmingham, Coventry, Wolverhampton, Warwick, and other markets, Liverpool, West of England with Bristol and Bath, Cambridge, Oxford, all big markets we have won so far.
The question is, of course, what's the secret sauce to this? The short and perhaps boring answer is that we don't think there is a secret sauce, but we think that since we set up the company from day one, the DNA of the company is to collaborate with cities and build long-term relationships with cities, which is a huge difference, especially compared to our American peers, who tend to come into cities with a ask for forgiveness, not permission approach, which hasn't been very successful in micro-mobility.
We had that DNA in the company from day one. Our teams that have worked with cities, they have been with us now for a couple of years. They know cities, and they know micromobility in cities better than anyone else in the world. We can lead both on the innovation side, on the key account management side, on the tender application side, and all of that just compounds to a strong advantage over competition.
When we talk to cities, it's pretty much what we hear as well. Here we have three examples from Marseille in France, from Hamburg in Germany, and from Birmingham in the U.K. Why they picked Voi and why they like to work with Voi are mainly around that one, the long-term approach, that we're perceived as the most long-term. We're financially solid. Also on the innovation side, we have been first in the world to roll out a lot of innovation around safety, around sustainability, around parking and so on. We will continue to invest in this. We think it's key, and we think that we're increasing the gap over competition every day through this.
High level when we look at European market dynamics now, when we look at the market position, market share in the cities we are, when we look at tender wins, and when we look at rides per day per vehicle, the numbers here are from July, August. We see that in Nordics and U.K., Ireland, we're the clear leader on all aspects. In Germany, Switzerland, Austria, so DACH, we see that we don't go to all markets. We're in approximately 15, 16 markets in DACH. In the markets where we are, we go very heavy. We're leading on fleet efficiency, so rides per vehicle per day. For the next year, we will go broader, but we'll continue to keep a very focused strategy and not go to all markets, but go for the kill in the markets we go.
France, as I mentioned. France is a quite small market now since cities really haven't opened up, so it's only four cities. It's Paris, Lyon, it's Marseille, and it's Bordeaux. We are in Marseille and Bordeaux. Unfortunately, we lost out in Paris, as I mentioned. We see that in Marseille and Bordeaux, it's the same story there as in the other markets. We're leading on rides per day per vehicle. The final market we are focused on now is Italy, where we are live both in Milan and in Rome, have won licenses in those cities, and went live just a couple of weeks ago.
I've talked a bit about regulated markets, so where we have a license either exclusively or with a competitor. When we look at unregulated markets, we see that we are beating competition on what we consider being the most important metric, fleet efficiency, so rides per vehicle per day, which is some kind of proxy for capital efficiency. Here, a few examples from some of the biggest markets in Europe, actually, when it comes to micromobility, Oslo, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Hamburg, and Gothenburg. The Nordics overall is very good for micro-mobility. We have good infrastructure. People are culturally very savvy when it comes to bike, scooters, all alternatives to cars and so on. We see that we beat both our main European competitor, TIER, and the main global competitor, Lime, on rides per vehicle per day.
We think the reasons here are two-, three-folded. One, what I mentioned, we go very focused in the markets we go. We believe that focus wins [audio distortion] Management resources are scarce. Second thing is what's mentioned here is fleet placement, fleet optimization. It's basically breaking down each and every city into small squares and optimizing supply in those squares so the user has a Voi available within one minute whenever he or she wants to use it. The third thing is consumer offering. We were first with rolling out the loyalty program, monthly subscriptions and so on, and that has driven a lot of demand and created habits among many of our most loyal users.
When we look at cash flow generation in, I think this is approximately 30 of our 40 markets or something like that. We see that we are cash flow positive in most markets in Q3. In some markets, we're generating extremely high cash flow conversion. Just an example here, Oslo, Stockholm, where we have EBITDA margins which equals free cash flow on 60%-70%. Overall, as a company, as I mentioned even including a fully- loaded HQ cost, EBITDA profitable the last months. This was something, I think, that no one thought it would be possible already this year. Now we have great confidence now in unit economics in how to run this business and also how to scale it sustainably and profitably.
The driver to this cash flow conversion or free cash flows are really strong unit economics. Here you have five examples from different markets, from DACH, so the German-speaking markets, from Nordics and from France as well. Unit economics for us is quite simple. It's revenue per vehicle per day, it's charging and logistics cost per vehicle per day, repair cost per vehicle per day, and depreciation per vehicle per day.
The top line here, fleet generation, you see V3X and V2. V3X is the newest generation product, the newest generation vehicle. It's a fully commercially graded product. We have designed it from scratch, so it's really built for sharing. It has swappable batteries, so we don't need to move the vehicles in and out anymore. We swap them out on the streets. It has advanced IoT connectivity solutions, so we have full control over the vehicles wherever they are at 24/7. Introducing this product to our cities in the beginning of this year has been a transformational shift in unit economics.
In many markets, we have cut operating costs, so charging, logistics, and repair costs with 60%, 70% compared to previous generations. We also see on the depreciation side, on the lifetime side, that it's fully under control. You see that contribution margins here. This is unit economics from the last two months. It's July, August, September. Extremely high contribution margins in these cities. Short payback on the vehicles. I think we're on an average payback on, say, 130, 140 days or something in the company the last months. With some markets down on the CC 60, 70 days. This has really been the driver to what we consider being another transformational shift on the capital structure side, where we, if you look at the left column here, we have proven a short payback time on the vehicles.
We introduced a resale program in the beginning of this year. To date, we have already resold more than 15,000 vehicles. That's early generation vehicles that we could run on the streets, but we see that they aren't competitive anymore. Then it's better for us to resell them to get the latest generation product to continue to be the most competitive player with the best product on the streets with the best cost structure.
The third driver here also is that we have LOIs in place to sell tens of thousands of vehicles more. We sell them to both a variety of organizations. It's operators in lower GDP markets, in Eastern Europe, in Africa, and so on. We have also rolled out direct-to-consumer e-commerce refurbished resale program. We'll continue to do this. This whole cycle is very beautiful, both from a sustainability point of view to give the vehicles a second or third life, but also from a financial point of view.
If you look at the mid column here, it's our loss rates, so monthly loss rates. The first generation, we lost 9% of the vehicles per month. This is including everything. It's including wear and tear, breakdowns, vandalism, theft, and so on. The last generations have been down on 1%, which gives some kind of theoretical lifetime of several years, four or five years. Once again, as I mentioned, we will resell them way before that. The actual lifetime is not extremely important as long as we see that they last much longer than they are competitive. We will, of course, move into a phase in the industry when the technology curve flattens out a bit.
We have seen a very steep technology curve so far. When we move into that phase, we will keep the vehicles longer and not resell them, especially not in protected markets where we have licenses over many years. The need to be with absolutely latest generation product is not the same anymore. This has led to asset-backed financing, as I mentioned. I think as of now, we will be in a 75% LTV advance rate. We will be able to get that one up, we think, over time when we prove the model even more. The financing is fully asset backed with the vehicles as pledge.
The last thing I will mention is this, which has been another big change in the industry. We rolled out subscriptions in May, June this year. We see that more than 10% of our revenues now come from passes and monthly subscriptions or daily passes, weekly passes, monthly passes, and so on. We see that number increasing. We have seen a surprisingly high retention rate. Approximately 70% of all users getting the passes continue with them after the first month. After the second and the third month also, the retention rates continue to look really good. This will be a big bet for us next year to get users on these subscriptions passes as we see that it's really what's driving habits.
We think we're moving towards, as I mentioned, as I started with, we're moving towards a world where our quality of revenues will go up, more protected markets, more subscriptions. On the capital side, more asset-backed debt financing for growth going forward and overall a very positive regulatory environment, or macro environment, both when it comes to city regulations, but also when it comes to consumer behavior. Utilization is going up in markets where we've been a long time, we hope and believe that we can continue to push utilization up even further in markets like the Swedish ones, like the German ones. That was it from me. I kept it quite brief, but are looking forward to questions from all of you.
Great. Thanks, Fredrik. We have a bunch of questions coming in. If anyone wants to ask other questions, please punch them into the chat or the Q&A. I think we'll kick off with a question from Björn here, my colleague.
Yeah, sure. I guess the first question is one I got in the past. I guess following on your very successful licensing in the U.K., and before that you did lose the Paris license. The question has been around what was the feedback from Paris and what kind of learnings did you get from that one and taking it to future licensing rounds?
As I mentioned, I think we learned a lot from the Paris license. In 2019, we won most of the licenses in Danish cities, in French cities, and so on. The Paris one was kind of the first loss. As I mentioned, one, we learned to let experts be experts and have strong central teams for everything city and the government relationships related.
Secondly, I think in the end, we became a bit too confident and too cocky after the wins 2018, 2019, and kind of relaxed and didn't innovate as fast going into the Paris license. I think in the period now, six months after the Paris license, we have innovated perhaps four or five times as much as we did the six months before the Paris license. It was kind of a wake-up call, and we know much better now, or we learned the hard way how to work with these city processes and how important it is with innovation all the time and being six to nine months ahead of competition. That I think we have seen the results from in the U.K.
Thanks. Questions from the audience here is starting off with what you attribute our superior rides per day compared to competition? Apart from ground execution, what are we doing so much better than the other scooter companies, which are also pure play scooter companies?
Yeah, I think fundamentally both, the two main competitors, Lime and TIER, overall they are spreading more thin. They are in more markets with less vehicles usually than we are. We go more focused. The second thing, as I mentioned, the whole fleet optimization, how we work with data to optimize supply throughout the whole cities throughout the day and so on. We brought on a leader from Boston Consulting Group's data analytics vertical to lead this for us around a year ago with some great success in that. Third also, as I mentioned, I think, us rolling out these loyalty programs and subscriptions ahead of the others. We have benefited a lot from that.
Thanks. Could you touch upon scooter theft, vandalism, damage, and how that's developed, and the frequency and percentage of scooter fleets that gets affected by that and the financial impact, yeah?
Yeah.
What percentage of revenues goes to replacement of stolen and repair of damages kind of thing?
Conceptually what we see is that it peaks the first weeks in the market when it's completely new and when people think they can privatize and do bad things, antisocial behavior and so on with the vehicles. With time, it decreases a lot. In more mature markets, it's very low. When we look at scooter loss rate, we don't make any difference between if they break down due to bad construction or wear and tear or vandalism, theft. It's approximately 50/50. As I mentioned, now with latest generation vehicles, it's around 1% per month, the combination of breakdowns and vandalism and theft. It's very much under control.
Okay. Industry consolidation, Voi's ability to participate in any consolidation, how the industry will evolve over time? How do you see that evolving?
Consolidation in the space. It's been consolidation in the space since day one, I would say, where we saw one of our main competitors here in Europe, Circ, was acquired by Bird late last year, so a year ago approximately. I think a lot of the consolidation talks early in the industry was due to that before clear visibility and actual profitability and positive unit economics, everyone were worried about the capital access and to kind of make it over the positive unit economics profitability bump.
Now we have made it. We see that we have good access to capital both on the debt side and on the equity side, and we have very strong visibility also on full Group- level profitability over the full year. We're not really in a rush for that now. We're executing well on operations, we're executing well on licensing city relationships and so on. We have access to capital. For us now, it would rather be a distraction to go into some kind of consolidation. We would only do it at really good terms and with us as a consolidator.
Got it. Over the past year or two, has there been any change of view on how big or dense a city needs to be for it to be of interest to Voi?
Yeah, I would say the biggest change there is that with improved cost structure and lower operating cost per vehicle per day, we can be profitable in pretty much any market, independent of size. We can be profitable. We see we're profitable in some markets where we only have 300 vehicles, but we are also profitable in markets where we have 5,000 vehicles. We focus on the big markets because profits in a 300 vehicle market is not as fun as a 4,000 or 5,000 or 10,000 vehicle market. We're quite insensitive now to the size of the markets.
Okay. There's a couple of questions on sort of this early someone call it antisocial behavior of Voi users in this apparently be some sort of media reports on the antisocial behavior of Voi users in U.K. cities. What can we do to improve that?
Yeah. I think what we've seen in the U.K. now since we rolled out a couple of months ago. In the U.K., micromobility or short-range electric vehicles overall have been pretty much illegal until this year. Still today, it's illegal to drive your own personal scooter, e-scooter in the U.K. The U.K. legalized our shared rental e-scooters due to COVID-19 and that the government wants people back moving and so on. We see that in every market where we introduce something new there is this initial novelty effect and just high interest.
Also, as I mentioned before, we see antisocial behavior or vandalism or whatever. It's a difference there, but they are related. Antisocial behavior is the kids driving on pavements. Jumping around and so on. It's at its highest in the beginning. I think in markets where micro-mobility is completely new, it becomes almost like a shock to people seeing people driving around on scooters in the cities, on pavements and so on. We solved it just through working with cities, through having some patience and so on.
I think what we need to point out also is that, unfortunately, idiots will be idiots, and we're to some extent in the hands of the users. We can do everything we can on product, on education, on operations and so on. In the same way as you need to take responsibility when you rent a car from Hertz or Europcar, you also need to take responsibility when you use a Voi scooter or a Voi e-bike.
Thank you. How do economics compare in protected markets, licensed markets or open markets?
We see that in extremely competitive open, unregulated markets, it's tough for everyone except the number one. If you take perhaps the number two in some markets as well, if it's really good markets. If you take markets like Stockholm, Oslo, Copenhagen, which have been unregulated, but we have been the number one, as you saw, we can generate great profits and cash flows in those markets. In protected markets, it's pretty much always good, because it's only one or two or maximum three players in the market. There we see an overdemand, and with overdemand, of course, strong numbers.
We like protected markets the most, both from a financial point of view, but also from perception and order point of view, because the most professional, the best players tend to win in these licensing processes. We avoid the city pain points that I talked about, so parking, visual clutter, safety problems and so on, when we only have the most professional or professionals in the city.
Do you see a scenario where the city will demand a share of revenue in the future?
It's been a concern since day one. We haven't seen it, we haven't heard from it on some kind of scale yet. We're usually paying a small fee per vehicle per year, say EUR 10.00, EUR 15.00 per vehicle per year. In many markets it's equivalent to one day's revenue. It's completely fine. I think since the green agenda is so strong in cities, since we're providing a transportation service for free for the city, the cities don't have to pay for the service, really. Where we are moving it is that we want this to be seen as almost some kind of public good. We're helping the cities on their green agenda, on getting alternatives to cars on the streets and so on. We are not that worried about the restrictions on pricing or fees from the cities anymore.
Okay. What share of revenue do you think will eventually come from subscriptions? Where will that mature?
If we're getting to 10% this year, I think next year we will be on 25%, something like that, and then increase it gradually over time. I think in a couple of years, we'll probably be on 50%-60%, something like that. We will always be open to pay-per-rides, but we want to push all the daily users or the weekly users or the monthly users, like the commuters in a market to get to subscriptions and to loyalty programs.
The American players, are they likely to stick around in Europe long term? Or what's their future in Europe?
I think there were two American pure micromobility players, Lime and Bird, who raised this humongous amounts of money a couple of years ago. They raised hundreds of millions in their C rounds or Series A rounds and so on, expanded all over the world very quickly. What we see now in Europe, looking at them, Lime is still a strong competitor in quite a few markets, especially in Germany. We see Bird is a mini market, I would say, where we are active. We definitely see that we have been able to push back the American players quite into licensing. We see just the decisive factor that pushes them back to the U.S. fully.
Okay. Fredrik, your connection is a bit up and down. Now it seems to work.
Okay.
I think we got most of that question fixed.
Losing ground is the bottom line.
Okay.
Especially once cities go to licensing, the Americans lose the licenses.
Got it. Okay. What percentage of cities that you want to be present in are you already present in?
I think you were past the Is it 250 cities with more than 160,000 people or something living there? White space is huge in Europe. We're underpenetrated. I mean, essentially we're in minute 10 of a 90-minute football game or something like that. We're just warming up. Huge both white space and also, yeah, potential to go deeper in the current markets.
On that sort of note, there's a few questions, one specifically to the U.K., and one general, to what extent do you grow the scooters over time? One, the general question is to what extent the cities grow the number of scooters covered by the license over time. Then there was one specific to the U.K., the U.K. conflict: how many scooters will be in the U.K. when you fully ramp up?
I think overall, the first iteration of licenses now has been rather on the lower side of the demand in cities. Take a city like Paris or a city like Marseille. Marseille now is on 4,000 vehicles, Paris is on 15,000 vehicles. We think it's the first iteration where we see cities are moving, and where we want cities to move also is to dynamic caps. When there is demand, there should be vehicles on the streets. When there isn't demand, there shouldn't be a lot of vehicles on the street creating visual clutter and so on. We would definitely think cities would move towards some kind of dynamic cap, and we see the first examples of that.
The second question on the U.K., I think U.K. has the potential to be Europe's biggest market, together with Germany. Just from the Voi side, when you look at the license we have won so far, it's way above 15,000 vehicles. We are starting off quite slowly now. As I mentioned, it's a completely new market and we need to educate the market on micromobility and on e-scooters. We're in it for the long game. We're in these markets, Birmingham, Cambridge, Oxford, Liverpool, with a five-year horizon or seven-year horizon in mind, not a five to seven months horizon.
Great. There's also question on, I think, on sort of revenue and profitability. I think we at VNV have stuck our neck out and said that this is a $400 million revenue, $100 million EBIT business. What are the challenges getting to that sort of level that we've put out there? There's a more general question to you on what you think the 2025 sort of revenue and EBIT margin are. What's the EBIT margin at maturity? A bunch of questions around that. If you could elaborate, that'd be great.
Yeah, of course. I think, it's a function of a few things. One, how many markets will be open at 2025? I think most European markets will be open by then. We see more and more markets opening up now. It's still early and so on. It's just a question of how many markets will open up and how many vehicles can we put in there, which will be a function of, I think, how successful we are in winning these licenses and keeping these licenses. We're off to a good start. We need to continue to execute on that.
I think the model overall has incredible operating leverage, as you see. Many of our markets are with 30%, 40% + EBITDA margin, free cash flow conversion. We're still with an oversized HQ, I would say, compared to the actual money makers, the actual vehicles we have out there in the markets. We could definitely operate if not twice as many, so close to twice as many vehicles out there with pretty much the same overhead cost. I think we believe that long term, our core business will be on EBIT margins on, I hope 20%-25%. The market is huge, as we talked about. In the end, it's mobility.
Mobility is the second biggest expenditure for households in Europe after housing. The share for micromobility and the overall mobility spend is increasing with every year. I guess for Voi specifically also, so that's a few words on the core business. What's interesting also is that can we use our assets in our core business, so millions of users, deep knowledge on micromobility, technology, warehouses, service centers, and so on all around Europe to expand into what we started earlier on this year.
E-commerce of refurbished vehicles currently, should we also upsell our consumers with their own Vois? Should they be able to lease their own Voi and have it at home, access our service centers, and so on? Should we offer our technology as a white label to entrepreneurs in mid-size or smaller cities where perhaps we don't want to operate, so they can take the CapEx investment and pay a royalty fee to us for using the software and so on? I think that now that the opportunities are endless, we see micro-mobility just exploding now in all verticals, both shared ones, sales, leasing, everything, which is very exciting.
That is exciting. From that sort of grand master plan, let's go back down to some details. There's some questions on more detail. On a per-scooter unit economics, what's the CapEx per scooter, the V3X? That's one question. Sort of in conjunction with that, there was a question on, you mentioned depreciation of EUR 1.00 per day, and how that sort of math works out when you have a five-, six-year lifetime of the scooter.
It's super simple. Accounting depreciation currently doesn't really reflect the actual lifetime. It's early on in the industry, what we'll do now, we're just now in the transition from expensing. Historically, we expensed all CapEx up front when we bought it. The accounting firms didn't really have any data on how long vehicles lasted and so on. We have more data on that, so now we're transitioning over to activating all CapEx on our balance sheet. We are starting off with a straight-line depreciation over two years, as that's where we'll be now. When the $1.00 per day is really the upfront CapEx investment per vehicle is approximately EUR 600, EUR 700 depending on version and so on, and depreciate that straight line over two years. It's very simple. It's a simplified version of reality, where we, as I said, see the vehicles lasting significantly longer.
Great. We'll fire away with more questions here. In the markets where you have multiple operators, do riders tend to use more than one scooter operator? If so, why?
Yeah, what we see from a consumer's perspective, the most important things are availability, reliability, and the consumer offering. Availability, always have a vehicle available within one minute walking or two minutes. Reliability, that it always works. Thirdly, consumer offerings, loyalty products, subscriptions, and so on. We also see that if you have one app or two apps similar to, for example, food delivery, you tend to use the barrier to install like the third or fourth or fifth app, then that company needs to be significantly better on availability, reliability, consumer offering, pricing, product. The short answer is yes. In very competitive markets, we see consumers not being fully loyal. At the same time, we see, as I mentioned, we see all markets going towards licensing and so on. Once again, it's super important to be the best player when it comes to winning these licenses.
Got it. If you look 12, 18 months into the future, could you sort of comment on the revenue split that you'd expect between Nordics, DACH, Germany, France, Italy, UK from Voi?
We think that DACH and the U.K. will be the biggest ones, say 30%-30%, something like that on DACH and the U.K. Nordics will probably be 20%-30%, and other markets, 10%-20%, something like that.
Okay. Can you comment on expected revenue ramp-up for the next three years?
Yeah. We expect 2020 when we look at top line, with COVID-19 and so on, we will continue to grow from 2019. We will not grow as much top line as we expected, but bottom line and efficiency-wise, we are much, much better this year. We think that 2021, fingers crossed, no heavy second, third waves of COVID-19, cities going to lockdowns and so on happen, that we will at least double revenues next year. Then, we have our plan for 2022 as well, but it's a long way to 2022 where we sit now, but we'll continue to see explosive growth over the next coming years.
Okay. Can you share your thoughts on why you think the second iterations of licenses will be longer in duration than the first?
I think because we and cities and the users are still learning. Traditionally, licenses and contracts with governments and cities are not on one or two years, they're rather on five to seven years.
Okay. You're not approaching a practical limit on rides per day. You think there's an opportunity to continue increasing rides per day?
Yes, definitely. We're moving further and further in on the adoption curve as well. Yeah. We see that the biggest barrier to growth, depending on what demographic group we're looking at, is one, the perception around safety, especially older users, non-users, and women are still having concerns around safety, is it safe and so on, to use e-scooters and e-bikes? The second thing is pricing. That's usually in the younger demographic groups, that we came to market as a relatively expensive way of getting around. We're getting the price down now through better product and better operations and much better cost structure. We will continue to work on those two. Safety, both actual and perception, and then pricing products, and that will be continued to drive utilization and uptick.
Can you comment on or update on the joint venture collaboration with the BlaBlaCar in France?
Yes. In France, we are doing a partnership with BlaBlaCar, another VNV Global company, where we operate under the brand BlaBla Ride by Voi. We continue to run it in Marseille and in Bordeaux, and are currently planning on how we go about it in 2021 and going forward.
Okay. I think we have time for one more question. There's a question on the next fundraise. When, what price, and if there are concerns that us lot, VNV, if it's too heavy, if we are weighting too much, we're too large for that to deter other investors? There's a question around that.
I think we're getting into that, what people call the watershed moment now, where we are moving from VC case with a lot of risk around product market fit, profitability, team, regulations, and so on, to more certainty around the other points I mentioned in the presentation. The main four points, unit economics, profitability, regulations, competition, and demand and capital structure. We see a very increased demand and interest from growth funds. Since day one, we have always been out talking to various investors, and we'll continue to do so. We can't give any exact details on how the next round will look like, what prices will be and so on. I don't know even what VNV's participation in that one will be. To be decided.
Yeah. Great. Thank you very much, Fredrik. Super generous with your time and the answers to all these questions. Thank you everyone for listening in, and hope to see you all back tomorrow.