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CMD 2020
Oct 14, 2020
Hi, everyone, And welcome to day 3 of our Capital Markets Week. Today is VOY Day. So we're super cool to have Fredrik here. Fredrik, the Founder and CEO of Voy. I'm wearing my Voy cap, which Fredrik gave me, I was it, I don't know, I think it was one and a half years into the journey of Voy and we were all super proud to have 1,000,000 rights in April 2019.
I'm just waiting now to see how far we've gone because I think we're talking 30,000,000 rights as we speak. Anyway, so I'll wear this cap for a while. And it's great to have you all here and especially you Frederic, of course. So I think we'll use this sort of format we used the other days, which is Frederic will kick off and do a presentation. And then we'll go to Q and A.
You can if you want All right, great. Over to you, Frederic. Thank you. All right, great. Over to you, Frederik.
Thank you. Can you hear me?
Yes.
Great. Then let's kick off. I will try to share my screen now.
We can see it.
Yes. We see it now.
Great. And it's full screen, right? Yes. Great. Hello, everyone.
Virtually this year. It's great to be here. I attended the in person Capital Markets Day last year in London a bit more than a year ago, and a lot has happened since then both in the world, in our industry, micro mobility and also for Voya as a company. We are honored to have DNV Global or Vostoknew Ventures, as the name was when we got them on board as investors, as our biggest shareholders did. And quite a few of you might know that I have known BNB Global since I was at Avido working on the real estate vertical, Domo Fund and Avido Real Estate a couple of years ago.
And I think I say the same now as I thought back then, but BNB Global is one of the best investors to have and it's not if you want to build a sustainable long term business. And I think, yes, it's more true than ever. So quick reminder. So, Bart Technology, we are providing shabby scooters and e bikes all over Europe. Since the beginning of the year, we have also expanded into e commerce.
So we are refurbishing our old generation vehicles that last longer than they are competitive on the streets. And we sell them to businesses and to consumers, both for sustainability reasons and also financial reasons, giving them a second and third life. As Per mentioned, we have moved a long way since we went live in Stockholm a couple of years ago. It's August 2018 that we launched here in Stockholm and Sweden. As it then, we have launched in 12 European countries in more than 40 cities.
And we I think when we spoke at the CMD, yes, the DMD Global CMD, last year we had done approximately EUR 5,000,000 rights. Growth has been exponential. And we continue to focus on the same things as we focused on since day 1, to be collaborative with Series, to be in long term relationships with Series. We think micro mobility long term will be almost like an infrastructure play, tech enabled infrastructure play, where it's super important to be the preferred city partner, which we are so far in Europe. We are extremely focused on cost and unit economics, operational excellence, and I'll get back to details on that.
And my plan today is to talk for approximately 20, 30 minutes and then open for questions. So if you look at the left hand graph here, mobility went down a lot. This is overall mobility from Google, CTMapper and other mobility intelligence providers. It went down with 80% to 90% when COVID-nineteen hit Europe in March. Mobility has now recovered in Europe to 50%, 60% depending on the market.
This is overall mobility. We see that micro mobility, so short range trips within city centers have recovered faster than other than any other mobility vertical. If you look at the mid column graph here, you saw that we took a hit in March, April when our gross revenues went down a lot. What we saw already in April in especially the Nordic markets that didn't go into full lockdown or came back from full lockdown earlier than other markets in Europe was that demand went up very quickly. So we paused operations in some markets when COVID-nineteen hit us, but then came back quickly when we saw the rapid recovery.
Since then, gross revenues and rides have increased month over month a lot. As you see, we became EBITDA breakeven on group level for the first time in June. And since then, we have been EBITDA breakeven on group level, yes, for 3, 4 consecutive months. This was earlier than expected, so super positive and happy about that. And it's driven by several things, which I will get back to.
But we see that on a macro level, we have a very strong tailwind now after COVID-nineteen. The green agenda in cities is stronger than ever. Cities want to push down push out heavy traffic from city centers and want alternatives to cars, to taxis and similar modes of getting around. And on the consumer side also, people don't want to use public transportation a year like this going into a grand bus metro or similar, which has benefited us a lot. We continue to double down in sustainability.
When we ask people working at Voy, why are you working at Voi? It's not due to high salaries. The most common answer is impact, that people want to be on the right side of history, that they want to make a change. And we will continue to focus on that. Sustainability has been core at Voy since day 1.
We have focused a lot on our carbon footprint to get it lower than public transportation. And in most markets now, we actually have a lower carbon footprint, so CO2 emissions per passenger kilometer than public transportation. It's mainly around vehicle lifetime. So we have got vehicle lifetime up to theoretically 4 or 5 years now. But as I mentioned, the vehicles last longer now than they are competitive, so that's why we resell them.
The second big thing on sustainability and carbon footprint for us is on operating model, where we have replaced diesel vans and other heavy vehicles that we used initially for operations with electric cargo bikes, electric vehicles and green energy. Since day 1, we've had a few pain points in cities, mainly around parking, visual cluttering and so on and also safety. Those 2 are our main focus when it comes to how to work with cities for the next coming 12 months. And we're testing, yes, a range of solutions there on the parking side and the clatter side. It's become much better already with incentivized parking zones, with double kickstands, overall better hardware and software, but we still have a way to go.
We have to really to really mitigate us on that pain point. Safety, as with all modes of transportation, there is a certain risk. What we see now, we're getting smarter and smarter every day. Currently, we see that using an e scooter or an e bike, a shad e scooter or e bike is not more dangerous than using your own bike, except what we see from 12 in the night to 4 or 5 in the morning, where it seems like more people are using shared e bikes and e scooters than normal bikes. And that's why we see an increased incident rate compared to normal bikes.
But normal hours when people are not drunk is the same incident rate as for bikes. But still a long way to go there and a lot to do, but we're definitely getting there. When we're out talking to investors, the main questions around us and around the industry Yes, so what has happened in the industry in the last year? Why is Voig the best choice and the winner in this industry? And it's mainly around 4 things as we see it.
1, cities and licensing regulations. So it's much clearer now how the how regulations will play out. We're moving towards almost like a oligopolistic market structure, where cities are giving out licenses to 1 or 2 players mainly who are given the right to operate in a city for 1, 2, 3 years in the 1st iteration of licenses, but we think the 2nd iteration of licenses will be 5, 6, 8 years. The second question, Mark, has been around unit economics efficiency profitability. As I mentioned, we have been EBITDA profitable on group level now for several months consecutively, which is, of course, driven by very strong unit economics on unit and city level.
Thirdly, demand and users. At least in the beginning, I was asked, so is this a fad micro mobility? So will it be like a 3, 6 month thing and then lose popularity? I think it's quite clear we what we see in Silas is that we are increasing utilization in all markets where we have been 1.5, 2 years from now. Fourthly also, we need capital to finance the growth when it comes to CapEx, hardware and so on.
Historically, we have financed our CapEx, our scooters, e bikes and so on with through raising equity. It's expensive dilution wise. Now for the first time ever in the industry, we have managed to get asset backed financing in place. So we finance hardware going forward increasingly with debt, quite beneficial debt compared to historical equity, which is a game center in the industry. It's a game center for us and will be a huge competitive advantage going into next year.
And when we look at our revenues, we see 2 things. 1 is that if we zoom out and turn back the tape 2 years, Back then, all of our revenues were in unregulated, so free competition markets, and all of our revenues were paper ride transactional revenues. What we see already now is that more and more of our revenues are in protected markets where we have licenses with cities, either exclusive licenses as in the U. K. Or shared licenses as in France, as in Italy.
We're also seeing that more and more of our revenues have become recurring. So from transactional paper ride revenues to monthly, weekly, daily passes to loyalty programs. And we think that in a couple of years from now, pretty much all of our revenues will be in protected markets, so in licensed markets and more or less recurring, so on the subscription programs and on loyalty programs. The revenue quality is increasing quite rapidly now. And in this environment where cities are moving towards licensing, on this slide, we put together all European cities that have gone to licensing and handed out licenses.
And we have won approximately 50% of them. We have won 80% 90% plus of all licenses in the U. K. That opened up earlier this year. And yes, the only miss we've had really on winning licenses is Paris.
We know quite well why we didn't win Paris. Usually, we centralized everything related to city relationships, to lobbying, to tender applications and so on. Paris was an important one. We decentralized to the local teams. It was a mistake.
So we learned from that and quickly took it back to our strong central team again. And since then, we have won pretty much everything. These licenses are now, as I mentioned, they are 1, 2, in a few cases, 3 years with great opportunity, of course, for the holder of the license today to extend it. And we are extra proud, course, for all the wins in the U. K.
Where we have done a clean sweep so far. West Midlands, Birmingham, Coventry, Wolverhampton, Warwick and other markets, Liverpool, West England, Bristol and Bath, Cambridge, Oxford, yes, all big markets we have won so far. The question is, of course, what's the secret sauce to this? And the short and perhaps boring answer is that we don't think there is a secret sauce, but we think that since we set up the company from day 1, the DNA companies to collaborate with Sidus and build long term relationship with Sidus, which is a huge difference, especially compared to our American peers who tend to come into Sidus with ask for forgiveness not permission approach, which hasn't been very successful in micro mobility. So we had that DNA in the company from day 1.
So our teams that have worked with Sidus, they have been with us now for a couple of years. They know Sidus and they know micro mobility in Sidus better than anyone else in the world. So we can lead both on the innovation side, on the key account management side, on the tender application side, and all of that just compounds to a strong advantage over competition. And when we talk to cities, it's pretty much what we hear as well. Here we have three examples from Marseille in France, from Hamburg in Germany and from Birmingham in the U.
K. Why they picked Voi, why they like to work with Voi are mainly around that. 1, the long term approach that we're perceived as the most long term, we're financially solid. And also on the innovation side, we have been 1st in the world to rollout a lot of innovation around safety, around sustainability, around parking and so on. And we will continue to invest in this.
We think it's key and we think that we're increasing the gap over competition every day through this. High level when we look at European market dynamics now. When we look at the market position and market share in the markets in the cities we are, when we look at tender wins and when we look at rides per day per vehicle, the numbers here are for July, August. We see that in Nordics and U. K, Ireland, we are the clear leader on all aspects.
In Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Zoltak, we see that we don't go to all markets. We're in approximately 15, 16 markets in DACH. But in the markets, we are we go very heavy. We're leading our fleet efficiencies of rights per vehicle per day. For the next year, we will go broader, but we'll continue to keep a very focused strategy and not go to all markets, but go for the kill in the markets we go.
France, as I mentioned France is a quite small market now since cities really haven't opened up. So it's only 4 cities. It's Paris, Lyon, it's Marseille and it's Bordeaux. And we are in Marseille and Bordeaux. Unfortunately, we lost out in Paris, as I mentioned.
We see that in Marseille and Bordeaux. It's the same story there as in the other markets. We're leading on rides per day per vehicle. And then the final market we are focused on now is Italy, where we are live both in Milan and in Rome, have won licenses in those cities and went live just a couple of weeks ago. So I've talked a bit about regulated markets.
So we where we have a license either exclusively or with competitor. When we look at unregulated markets, we see that we are beating competition on what we consider being the most important metric, fleet efficiency, so rights per vehicle per day, which is some kind of proxy for capital efficiency. Here, a few examples from some of the biggest markets in Europe actually when it comes to micro mobility, Oslo, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Hamburg and Gothenburg. The Nordics overall is very good for micro mobility. We have good infrastructure.
People are culturally very savvy when it comes to bike scooters, all alternatives to cars and so on. And we see that we will beat both our main European competitor tier and the main global competitor line on rides per vehicle today. I think the reasons here are 2, threefolded. 1, what I mentioned, we go very focused in the markets we go. We believe that focus so management resources are scaled.
Second thing is what's mentioned here is fleet placement, fleet optimization. So it's basically breaking down each and every city into small squares and optimizing supply in those squares so the user has a boy available within 1 minute whenever he or she wants to use it. The third thing is consumer offering. We were first rolling out loyalty program, monthly subscriptions and so on, and that has driven a lot of demand and created habits among many of our most loyal users. When we look at cash flow generation in I think this is approximately 30 of our 40 markets, something like that.
We see that we are cash flow positive in most markets in Q3. In some markets, we're generating extremely high cash flow conversion. Just an example here, Oslo, Stockholm, where we have EBITDA margins, which equals free cash flow on 60%, 70%. And overall, as a company, as I mentioned, even on even including fully loaded HQ cost EBITDA profitable the last month. And this was something I think that no one thought it would be possible already this year, but now we have great confidence now in unit economics in how to run this business and also how to scale it sustainably and profitable.
The driver to this cash flow converse or free cash flows are really strong unit economics. Here you have five examples from different markets from DACH, so the German speaking markets from Nordics and from France as well. Unit Economics for us is quite simple. So it's revenue per vehicle per day, it's charging and logistics cost per vehicle per day, repair cost per vehicle per day and depreciation per vehicle per day. The top line here, fleet generation, you see B3X and B2.
So B3X is the newest generation products, the newest generation vehicle. It's a fully commercially grade product. We have designed it from scratch, so it's really built for sharing. It has swappable batteries, so we don't need to move the vehicles in and out anymore. We swap them out on the streets.
It has advanced IoT connectivity solutions. So we have full control over the vehicles wherever they are 20 fourseven. And introducing this product to our cities in the beginning of this year has been a transformational shift in unit economics. In many markets, we have cut operating costs, so charging logistics and repair costs with 60%, 70% compared to previous generations. And we also see on the depreciation side, on the lifetime side, that it's fully under control.
You see that contribution margins here. So this is unit economics from the last 2 months. So it's July, August, September, extremely high contribution margins in these cities, short payback on the vehicles. I think we're on average payback on, say, 130, 140 days or something in the company, the last months, while we are with some markets down on SCC 60, 70 days. This has really been the driver to what we consider being another transformational shift on the capital structure side, where we if you look at the left column here, we now have we have proven a short payback time on the vehicles.
We introduced a resale program in the beginning of this year. And to date, we have already resold more than 15,000 vehicles. So that's early generation vehicles that we could run on the streets, but we see that they aren't competitive anymore. And then it's better for us to resell them and get the latest generation product to continue to that to be the most competitive player with the best product on the streets with the best cost structure. The sub driver here also is that we have LOIs in place to sell tens of thousands of vehicles more.
So we sell them to both a variety of organizations. So it's operators in all in lower GDP markets in Eastern Europe, in Africa and so on, but we've also rolled out direct to consumer e commerce refurbished resale program. So we'll continue to do this. And this whole cycle is very beautiful, both from a sustainability point of view, to give the vehicles a second or third life, but also from a financial point of view. If you look at the mid column here, it's our loss rates, so monthly loss rates.
The 1st generation, we lost 9% of the vehicles per month. So this is including everything. It's including wear and tear, breakdowns, vandalism, theft and so on. The last generations have been down on 1%, which gives some kind of theoretical lifetime of several years, 4, 5 years. But once again, as I mentioned, we will resell them way before that.
So the actual lifetime is not extremely important as long as we see that they last much longer than they are competitive. We will, of course, move into a phase in the industry when the technology curve flattens out a bit. We have seen a very steep technology curve so far. When we move into that phase, we will keep the vehicles longer and not resell them, especially not in protected markets where we have licenses over many years, the need to be with absolutely latest generation product is not designed anymore. This has led to asset backed financing, as I mentioned.
I think as of now, we will be in a 75% LTV advanced rate. We'll be able to get that one up. We think over time, we will prove the model even more. And the financing is fully asset backed with the vehicles as a pledge. The last thing I will mention is this, which has been another big change in the industry.
We rolled out subscriptions in May, June this year. We see that more than 10% of our revenues now come from passes and monthly subscriptions or daily passes, weekly passes, monthly passes and so on. We see that number increasing. We have seen a surprisingly high retention rate, so approximately 70% of all users getting the passes continue with them after the 1st month. And after the second and the third month also the retention rates continue to look really good.
This would be a big bet for us next year to get users on these subscriptions passes. As we see that it's really what's driving habits. So we think we're moving towards as I mentioned and as I started with, we're moving towards a world where our quality of revenues will go up, more protected markets, more subscriptions on the capital side, more asset backed debt financing for growth going forward and overall a very positive regulatory environment both or macro environment both when it comes to city regulations, but also when it comes to consumer behavior. Utilization is going up in markets where we've been a long time, and we hope and believe that we can continue to push utilization even further in markets like the Swedish ones, like the German ones. And that was it for me.
I kept it quite brief, but are looking forward to questions from all of you.
Great. Thanks, Fredrik. So we have some a bunch of questions coming in. If anyone wants to ask other questions, please punch them into the chat or the Q and A. I think we'll kick off with a question from Bjorn here, my colleague.
Yes, sure. So I guess the first question is one I got in the past. And I guess following on your very successful licensing in the U. K, before that, you did lose the Paris license. So the question has been around what was the feedback from Paris City?
And what kind of learnings did you get from that one and taking into future licensing guidance?
No. As I mentioned, I think we learned a lot from the Paris license. We in 2019, we won most of the licenses in the initiatives, in French units and so on. The price one was kind of the first loss. As I mentioned, 1, we learned to let experts be experts and have strong central teams for everything Sitte and the government relationships related.
Secondly, I think in the end, we became a bit too confident and too cocky after the wins 2018, 2019 and kind of relaxed and didn't innovate as fast, yet going into the Paris license. I think the I mean in the period now 6 months after the Paris license, we have innovated perhaps 4 or 5 times as much as we did the 6 months before the Paris license. So it was kind of a wake up call and we know much better now how to or we learned the hard way how to work with this city processes and how important it with innovation all the time and being 6 to 9 months ahead of competition. And that, I think, we have seen the results from in the U. K.
Thanks. Questions from the audience here, starting off with what you attribute our superior rights per day compared to competition. And apart from ground execution, what we're doing is so much better than the other scooter companies, which are also pure play scooters companies?
Yes. I think fundamentally both so the 2 main competitors, Lyman Tier, overall, they are spreading more thin. So they are in more markets with less vehicles usually than we are. We go more focused. The second thing, as I mentioned, the whole fleet optimization, how we work with data to optimize supply throughout the whole cities throughout the day and so on.
We brought on a leader from Boston Consulting Group's data analytics vertical to lead this for us around a year ago. We've seen great success in that. And thirdly, also as I mentioned, I think, also rolling out these loyalty programs and subscriptions ahead of others, we have benefited a lot from that.
Thanks. Could you touch upon scooter thefts, vandalism damage and how that's developed and the frequency and percentage of scooter fees that gets affected by that and the financial impact, yes? Yes. What percentage of revenues caused the replacement of stolen and repair of damages kind of thing?
So what we see conceptually what we see is that it peaks the 1st weeks in the market when it's completely new and when people think they can privatize and do bad things, antisocial behavior and so on with the vehicles. With time, it decreases a lot. So in more mature markets, it's very, very low. I well, when we look at SKUDA loss rate, we don't make a big difference or we don't make any difference between if they break down due to bad construction or wear a tear or vandalism theft. It's approximately fifty-fifty.
As I mentioned now on the latest generation vehicles, it's around 1% per month. So the combination of the breakdowns and vendor is manifest. So it's very much under control.
Okay. Industry consolidation, voice ability to participate in any consolidation
Yes, consolidation in the space, it's been consolidation in the space since day 1, I would say, where we saw one of our main competitors here in Europe, SERC, was acquired by Bard late last year, so a year ago approximately. I think a lot of the consolidation talks early in the industry was due to that I mean, before clear visibility and actual profitability and positive unit economics, everyone were worried about the capital excess and to kind of make it over the positive unit economics profitability bump. Now we have made it. We see that we have good access to capital both on the debt side and on the equity side, and we have very strong visibility also on like a full group level profitability over the full year. So we're not really in a rush for that now.
We're executing well on operations. We're executing well on licensing, city relationships and so on. And we have access to capital. So for us now, it would I mean, it would rather be a distraction to go into some kind of consolidation. So we would only do it at really, really good terms and with us as a consolidator.
Got it. Over the past year or 2, has there been any change of view on how big or dense the city needs to be for it to be of interest to Voigt?
Yeah, I would say the biggest change there is that with the improved cost structure and lower operating cost per vehicle per day, we can be profitable in pretty much any market independent of size. We can be profitable. We see we're profitable in some markets where we only have 300 vehicles, but we are also profitable in markets where we have 5,000 vehicles. We focus on the big markets because profits in 300 vehicle market is not as fun as 4,000 or 5000 or 10000 vehicle market. But we're quite insensitive and yes, we're quite insensitive now to the size of the markets.
Okay. So there's a couple of questions on sort of this early, someone call it antisocial behavior of VOY users. And there's apparently been some sort of media reports on the antisocial behavior of VOY users in UK cities. And what can we do to improve that?
So I think I mean, what we've seen in the U. K. Now since we rolled out a couple of months ago, in the U. K, micro mobility or short range electric vehicles overall have been pretty much illegal until this year. And still today, it's illegal to drive your own personal scooter, e scooter in the U.
K, But the U. K. Legalized our shared rental e scooters, yes, due to COVID-nineteen and that the government wants people back moving and so on. We see that in every market where we introduce something new. There is this initial novelty effect and just high interest.
And also, as I mentioned before, we see antisocial behavior or vandalism or whatever. I mean, it's a difference there, but they are related antisocial behaviors of kids driving on payments, jumping around and so on. It's at its highest in the beginning. I think in markets where Mike PondBuild is completely new, it becomes kind of almost like a shock to people seeing people driving around on scooters in the cities on payments and so on. We sold it just through working with cities, through having some patience and so on.
But I think what we need to point out also is that, I mean, unfortunately, idiots would be idiots and we're to some extent in the hands of the users. We can do everything we can on product, on education, on operations and so on. But in the end, it's in the same way as you need to take responsibility when you rent a car from Hertz, a Europe car, you also need to take responsibility when you use a VOI scooter or a VOI e bike.
Thank you. And how do economics compare in protected markets, licensed markets or open markets?
So we see that in extremely competitive open unregulated markets, It's tough for everyone except the number 1. So if you take perhaps the number 2 in some markets as well, it is really good market. So if you take markets like Stockholm, Oslo, Copenhagen, which have been unregulated, but we have been the number one as just so we can generate great profits and cash flows in those markets. In protected markets, it's pretty much always good, because it's only 1 or 2 or maximum 3 players in the market. So there we see an over demand and with over demand, of course, strong numbers.
So we like protected markets the most both from a financial point of view, but also from perception and order point of view, because the most professional, the best players tend to win in these licensing processes. And then we avoid the safety pain points I talked about. So parking, additional clutter, safety problems and so on, when we only have the most professional or professionals in the city.
Do you see a scenario where the city's demand will demand a share of revenue in the future?
It's been a concern since day 1. We haven't seen it. We haven't heard from it on some kind of scale yet. We're usually paying a small fee per vehicle per year, say €10, €15,000 per vehicle per year, which is equivalent to I mean, in many markets, it's equivalent to, yes, one day's revenue. So it's completely fine.
I mean, I think since the green agenda is so strong in cities and since we are providing a transportation service for free for the city. I mean the cities don't have to pay for the service really. And where we are moving at this I mean, we want this to be seen as almost some kind of public good. We're helping the cities on their green agenda on getting alternatives to cars on the streets and so on. We are not that worried about the restrictions on pricing or fees from the cities anymore.
Okay. What share of revenue do you think will eventually come from subscriptions? Where will that mature?
So if it's if we're getting to 10% this year, I think next year we will be on 25%, something like that and then increase it gradually over time. I think in a couple of years, we will probably be on 50%, 60%, something like that. We will always be open to paper ride, but we want to push all the daily users or the weekly users or the monthly users like the commuters in the market to subscriptions and loyalty programs.
The American players, are they likely to stick around in Europe long term? Or what's their future in Europe?
I think there were 2 American Pure Micro Mobility players, Laimenburg, who raised his humongous amounts of money a couple of years ago. They raised 100 of 1,000,000 in their C ground source, Series A runs and so on, expanded all over the world very, very quickly. What we see now in Europe, we are looking at them. Lime is still a strong competitor in quite a few markets, especially in Germany. We see bard is a money market, I would say, where we are active.
So we definitely see that we have been able to push back the American players quite into licensing, we see just the decisive factor that pushes them back to the U. S. Fully.
Okay. Frederik, your connection is a bit up and down, but now it seems to work. Okay. And then I think we got most of that question fixed. I so
Losing ground is the bottom line. Okay. Especially when cities go to licensing, the Americans lose their licenses.
Got it. Got it. Okay. What percentage of cities that you want to be present in are you already present in?
We I think Europe has is it 250 cities with more than 150,000 people or something living there. So white space is still white space is huge in Europe. We're penetrated. I mean as I sleep, we're in number we're a minute 10 of a 90 minute football game or something like that. We're just warming up.
So huge, huge both white space and also potential to go deeper in the current markets.
So and on that sort of note, there's a few questions. One specific to the U. K. And one general sort of to what extent do you sort of how do you grow the scooters over time? So one, the general question is to what extent does cities grow the number of scooters covered by the license over time?
And then there was one specific to the U. K, How many the U. K. Contracts, how many scooters will be in the U. K.
When you fully ramp them?
So I think overall, the first iteration of licenses now has been rather on the lower side of the demand in cities. We take a city like Paris or a city like Marseille. Marseille now is on 4,000 vehicles. Paris is on 15,000, 1,500 vehicles. We think it's the 1st iteration where we see cities are moving and where we want cities to move also is to dynamic caps.
So when there is demand, there should be vehicles on the streets. And when there isn't demand, there shouldn't be a lot of vehicles on the street creating visual clutter and so on. So we would definitely think Cilis would move towards some kind of dynamic cap, and we see the first examples of that. The second question on the U. K, I think U.
K. Has the potential to be Europe's biggest market together with Germany. And just from the voice side, when we look when you look at when you look at the license of Grabok 1, so far, it's way above 15,000 vehicles. So we are starting off quite slowly now. As I mentioned, it's a completely new market and we need to educate the market on micro mobility and on e scooters.
And I mean we are bringing it for the we're bringing it for the long game. We're in these markets, Birmingham, Cambridge, Oxford, Liverpool with a 5 year horizon or horizon or 7 year horizon in mind not the 5 to 7 months horizon.
There's also a question on I think on sort of profitability revenue and profitability, I think we at VNV have stuck our neck out and said that this is a $400,000,000 revenue, dollars 100,000,000 EBIT business. And so what are the challenges getting to that sort of level that we put out there? And there's also and then there's more general question on to you on what you think the 2025 sort of revenue and EBIT margin are. What's the EBIT margin at maturity? So a bunch of questions around that.
If you could elaborate, that would be great.
Yes, of course. No, so I think I mean, it's a function of a few things, yes? 1, I mean, how many markets will be open at 2025. I think most markets, most European markets will be open by then. We see more and more markets opening up now.
It's still early and so on. So it's just a question of how many markets will open up and how many vehicles can we put in there, and we should be a function of, I think, how successful we are in winning these licenses and keeping these licenses. We're off to a good start. We need to continue to execute on that. I think the model overall has incredible operating leverage, as you see.
Many of our markets are with 30%, 40% plus EBITDA margin, free cash flow conversion. We can run I mean, we're still with an oversized HQ, I would say, compared to the actual moneymakers, the actual vehicles we have out there in the markets. We can definitely operate, if not twice as many, so close to twice as many vehicles out there with pretty much the same overhead cost. I think we believe that long term our core business will be on EBIT margins on yes, I hope 20%, yes, around 20%, 25%. And the market is huge, as we talked about in the end.
It's mobility. Mobility is 2nd biggest expenditure for households in Europe after housing. And the share for micro mobility and the overall mobility spend is increasing with every year. So I guess for Voi specifically also, so that's a few words on the core business. What's interesting also is that can we use our assets in our core business, so millions of users, deep knowledge on micro mobility, technology, warehouses, service centers and so on all around Europe to expand into what we started earlier on this year.
So e commerce of refurbished vehicles currently, should we also do upsell our consumers with their own voice, Should they be able to lease their own voice and have it at home, access our service centers and so on? Should we offer our technology as a white label to entrepreneurs in midsize or smaller cities where perhaps we don't want to operate so they can take the CapEx investment and pay royalty fee to us for using the software and so on. I think the opportunities are it's just now that opportunities are endless. We see micro and build just exploding now in all verticals, both shared ones, sales, leasing, yes, everything, which is very, very exciting.
That is exciting. And from that sort of grand sort of master plan and down let's go back down to some details. There's some questions on more detail. So and that is on more on a per scooter unit economics, what's the CapEx per scooter, the V3X? That's one question.
And sort of in conjunction with that, there was a question on you mentioned depreciation of €1 per day and how that sort of math works out when you have a 5, 6 year lifetime of the scooter?
No, it's super simple. Accounting revenue doesn't really reflect accounting depreciation currently doesn't really reflect actual lifetime. Since it's early on in the industry, what we'll do now, we're just now in the transition from expensing. Historically, we expensed all CapEx upfront when we bought it since the accounting firms didn't really have any data on how long vehicles lasted and so on. Now we have more data on that.
So now we're transitioning over to activating all CapEx on our balance sheet. We are starting off with a straight line depreciation over 2 years as that's where we'll be now When the $1 per day is really the upfront CapEx investment per vehicle is approximately €600, €700,000 depending on version and so on and depreciate that straight line over 2 years. So it's very simple. It's a simplified version of reality where we, as I said, see the vehicles lasting significantly longer.
Great. So we'll fire away with more questions here. And in the markets where you have multiple operators, do riders tend to use more than 1 scooter operator? And if so, why?
Yes. We think what we see from consumers' perspective is the most important things are availability, reliability and the consumer offering. Availability, always have vehicle available within 1 minute walking or 2 minutes. Reliability that it always works. Thirdly, yes, consumer offerings, loyalty products, subscriptions and so on.
We also see that if you have one app or 2 apps similar to, for example, food delivery, you tend to use the barrier to install like the 3rd or 4th or 5th app, then that company needs to be significantly better on availability, reliability, consumer offering, pricing product. So the short answer is yes. In very competitive markets, we see consumers not being fully loyal. We at the same time, we see, as I mentioned, we see all markets going towards licensing and so on. So once again, it's super, super important to be the best player when it comes to winning these licenses.
Got it. If you look 12, 18 months into the future, could you sort of comment on the revenue split that you expect between Nordics, DACH, Germany, France, Italy, UK, are from Reddy?
We think that DACH and the U. Will be the biggest ones, say, thirty-thirty, something like that on Dakken, the U. K, Then Nordics will probably be, yes, 20, 30 and then other markets, yes, 10, 20 something like that.
Okay. And is can you comment on expected revenue ramp up for the next 3 years?
Yes, I think we I mean, we expect 2020 on when we look at top line, yes, with COVID-nineteen and so on, we will continue to grow from 2019. We will not grow as much top line as we expected, but bottom line and efficiency wise, we are much, much better this year. We think that 2021, fingers crossed, no heavy second, third waves of COVID-nineteen, cities go into lockdowns and so on happen we'll be I mean that we will at least double revenues next year. And then yes, we have our plan for 2022 as well, but it's like it's a long way to 2022 where we sit now, but we will continue to see, yes, explosive growth over the next coming years.
Okay. And can you share your thoughts on why you think the second iterations of licenses will be longer in duration than the first?
I think because we and cities and the users are still learning. And traditionally, licenses and contracts with governments and cities are not on 1 or 2 years, they're rather on 5 to 7 years.
Okay. And you're not approaching a sort of a practical limit on rights per day. You think there's an opportunity to continue increasing rights per day?
Yes, definitely. We're moving farther and farther in on the adoption curve as well, yes. And we see that the biggest barrier to growth depending on what demographic group we're looking at is 1, the perception around safety, especially older users, among users and women still are yes, are still having concerns around safety. Is it safe and so on to use e scooters and e bikes? The second thing is pricing.
That's usually in the younger demographic groups, but we came to market as a relatively expensive way of getting around. We're getting the price down now through better product and better operations and much better cost structure. But we will continue to work on those 2. So safety, both actual and perception and then pricing products and that will continue to drive utilization and uptick.
Can you comment on or update on the joint venture collaboration with the Blavacar in France?
Yes. We are yes, in France, we are doing a partnership with Blavacore, another BNB global company, where we operate under the brand, the Blavacore ride by BYVOY. We yes, we continue to run it in Marseille and in Bordeaux and are currently planning on how we go about it in 2021 and going forward.
Okay. I think we have time for one more question. So there's a question on the next fundraise. When or price. And if there are concerns that Aslop V and V are too, if it's too heavy, if we are weighted too much, we're too large before for that to deter other investors.
There's a question around that.
I think we're getting into that what people call like the watershed moment now where we are moving from BC case with a lot of risk around product market fit, profitability, team, regulations and so on to more certainty around the points I mentioned in the presentation. The main four points, unit economics profitability, regulations, competition and demand and capital structure. So yes, we see a very increased demand and interest from growth funds. And I mean since day 1, we have always been now talking to various investors and we'll continue to do so. We can't give any exact details on how the next round will look like, what prices will be and so on.
And I don't know even what VNB's participation in that one will be to be decided.
Great. Thank you very much, Fredrik. Super generous with your time and your and the answers to all these questions. And thank you everyone for listening in and hope to see you all back tomorrow.