VNV Global AB (publ) (STO:VNV)
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Sep 24, 2026, 5:29 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q2 2020

Aug 31, 2020

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Okay. Hi, everyone. A little later Q2 report than what we're used to. This has to do with the new issue and that was done over summer, and then everything needed to be delayed a little bit. I think post this, we're back on track to the normal sort of rhythm, even improving that a bit, I think. Nevertheless, on to the quarter, which I'll try to keep short as I'll do an introduction and then I'll take questions, I think is the best way to handle this. Busy quarter, busy summer.

Obviously, the name change, VNV Global, moving to Sweden is also done, maybe more importantly, a $90+ million rights issue completed over summer to fund investments into the existing portfolio as well as new investments, which we've been active in both, some we've been able to close during the course of the quarter and some we've been active also in July and August, and will continue to be active. So there's lots of stuff going on. In terms of overall numbers, it's a very uneventful first six months. The NAV in dollar terms is down 2.5% or so compared to the same period last year. That involves a lot of volatility, of course, during these first six months with COVID happening, a lot of different things going on in different parts of the portfolio.

Also in terms of krona per share, the NAV has also suffered a little bit on the back of the dollar falling versus the Swedish crown. I think the big movements in terms of the portfolio and how the NAV stacks up is that Babylon has continued to sort of go up. Babylon is valued on the back of a model, which in turn is valued, uses a group of listed peers. There is no perfect listed peer here. Here is a group which also includes, as you'll expect, the two by now sort of famous U.S. names in terms of digital health, Livongo and Teladoc, which of course have merged. That merger will happen after the end of the quarter. The multiples have sort of moved upwards further since the end of the quarter.

The Babylon sort of value in terms of this NAV is up nearly 40% during the first half. Some of that came already during the first quarter, of course. As is also sort of very clear, we'll come back to that. BlaBlaCar down some 16% during the first half. That's also something that's been going on in the first quarter. BlaBlaCar, although there's some very interesting dynamics now as to recovery post the pandemic, I don't know if I can say post the pandemic, but post sort of this lockdown, the first lockdown, we'll see what happens. No expert there. Anyway, where we are now, BlaBlaCar, of course, had a stop in activity as all our other transportation or mobility plays.

Whereas Voi maybe saw lots of increased activity early on in the recovery, BlaBla is sort of coming in the latter phase, but there's good activity there. That's down. Voi is down, perhaps surprisingly. This is on the back of the raise that Voi basically just completed. That's a raise that we led. It was a $20 million going to $30 million raise, which we took a big chunk of. We're super enthusiastic over Voi. On the macro level as well as on the micro level, the company's really going from strength to strength in virtually every aspect. However, we are as keen as we are on the company, we of course want to invest at the best possible level for our shareholders.

We led the round, we negotiated a price, which was negotiated, you could maybe argue a little bit pre sort of it really kicking off in the first innings of recovery. Hence, I think it's fair to say we got a good deal. The fact that it's down during this first half should not be read as us being bullish or being not bullish. I think there's lots of upside, and I'll try to touch upon some details there. There's been some activity in the second quarter. We did participate in Gett's final round, and we put some more money into Dostavista, which we're very bullish about as well as Wuzzuf, whose holding name is BasharSoft, Wuzzuf being the job vertical in Egypt and other parts of that world.

We have a couple of slides here, but the way the portfolio sort of stacks up now, you'll see on this following page. This is, of course, pre the cash coming in from the rights issue, but it's reflective of how these sort of different marks have moved around. The overall picture, it's not a big difference from what you've seen in the past. Babylon is still about a third of the portfolio, followed by BlaBlaCar, 20%, Gett just shy of 10, followed by Voi, which is down to 7.8% now, but where I feel there's lots of upside. There's lots of upside in all of these, but maybe the Voi on the back of the transaction is maybe especially interesting given the activity there.

I'll try to touch upon some more details in the portfolio, in the different names, then we can move on to questions in Q&A. Babylon, of course, still amazingly sort of in the midst of this very strong acceleration of digital health worldwide. This can be witnessed on, they delivered in the second quarter nearly 18,000 daily consultations, which is up nearly 80% year-on-year. I think that's a good reflection of the activity level there. The bulk of that, of course, comes from the areas where they are already up and running and present now, being the U.K. and Southeast Asia with Prudential and some other areas.

It's no secret that the company is very focused on the U.S. now, and of course, started operations in the U.S. in the early parts of this year with Centene and Missouri in New York, and those contracts are being rolled out. The COVID situation is not all good for the company because even though there's lots and lots of demand from this, as will be familiar for you all with Babylon by now, is that the counterparties here are very large companies and organizations and state sort of providers of these kind of services. Those counterparties take a long time to settle contracts, to negotiate and finalize contracts. It takes a long time sort of to finalize the specialties of each different product, and it takes some time to roll things out.

Even though things are starting to roll out in the U.S., the execution of further rollouts have, of course, been slowed. Us being sort of here for the longer term and with lots of visibility to see through the current sort of situation overall is not worried at all about that. It's a fact. The overall sort of activity here is super strong, and we can see the company sort of delivering. The revenues is really sort of coming along nicely. It measured out the close on the first half of 2020. Revenues are up some threefold from the same period last year, and we see the growth continuing over the year, and then into 2021.

As we try to reflect on in the report here, the current merged revenues of Teladoc and Livongo over $1 billion, that's a level where we'll have this ability on Babylon reaching those kind of levels over the next 12, 18 months. They won't reach those levels, but the run rate has. If we haven't reached that by run rate, I think we'll have a lot of visibility into when that happens. The market cap of Babylon today, which is a bit shy of $3 billion, really leaves a 10x upside to the $30 billion of Teladoc/Livongo just on the base in revenues.

Of course, the Babylon product, I think it's fair to say is a different sort of level in terms of technological sort of advancedness and also potential around the business model to build high barriers to entry and enhance margin. I think just by the end of the year, given the growth, I think Babylon has the potential sort of to trade at a $5+ billion mark just based on the Teladoc Livongo multiples. That leaves a lot of upside, basically is what I'm trying to say. That's on Babylon. BlaBlaCar, of course, second quarter, terrible, right? I mean, 70% decrease in terms of activity. That comes as no surprise. We all know that Europe, essentially, and the world essentially stood still during large parts of that quarter.

If there was any activity, it was activity within cities and not between cities. However, now that the recovery is on its way, and as lockdowns have eased, Blabla has seen a lot of activity come back and in fact all the way to some levels which have surpassed where they were last year. Big drop, but a big recovery. This is especially or only present, I should say, or in a strong way on the C2C side, so cars. Because to travel in the car, you can travel with a sense of control of who you're sharing the space with. In fact, Blabla has even offered the product to be able to share the car with no one else but the driver, so to be alone with the driver.

Which in that format, you can essentially practice social distancing within the parameters of the car. That sense of control is absent in the alternative means of long-distance transportation, buses and trains, where you get into a confined space with a lot of other people and hence very little control over who you're traveling with and what they may carry with them, et cetera. Car side of things really recovering nicely. Bus side of things still have some way to go. We're very encouraged by the car side of things. In fact, also we see although buses are lagging for these reasons, the car side of things, we're also very enthusiastic about Blabla's presence in emerging markets. Here, the car side of things is important, but also the buses are important.

I think we try to spell it out in our report here, but it's just worth reiterating how large these markets are. Blabla, there's not much activity now, but on the bus side of things in Germany, it was Blabla and FlixBus competing over a EUR 400 million market. Big market. You compare that to Russia, which is a $3 billion market, Brazil, $7 billion, and Mexico, $10 billion market, you realize that Blabla's presence in these emerging markets has them exposed to much larger sort of markets than are present in Europe. Of course, these markets will not come back in the same way as before. Change is happening here too.

The one who sort of owns the data on travel, be it in buses, but most importantly in cars, will be able to design activity or offerings for the bus side of things too, and hence is very well exposed to sort of become the leader in those markets. Voi then is subject to this very strong activity in cities now where populations do not want to be traveling on the tube or on the buses to get around the city in fear of being some contagion of this virus. In the same way, the city councils do not. They want to limit the contagion by reducing the number of people on these public transports. Any kind of alternative means of transportation has been the focus, and e-scooters fit very well into that macro.

We've seen Voi from, of course, like a standstill again in March, April, and parts of May really come back strongly. In fact, have shown profitability during the course of June and stand strong to sort of be able to provide profitability for the full year of next year. That's very encouraging. We've also seen the interest of cities to sort of transfer its population's travel onto these e-scooters by the continued and increasing issuance of licenses. Of course, the U.K. stands out here as a very good sort of pointer of how quickly this is moving now.

U.K. was a market that wasn't expected to open up for e-scooter in any form for another couple of years, but then decided in the midst of these lockdowns that this was a good and maybe necessary opportunity to take advantage of to bring the populations out of lockdown onto the streets, but in a different way, try to move them away from the tube, but perhaps also for the long term, move them away from cars. Most cities also longer term, regardless of COVID, want cities to be less congested by cars and move people onto other means of transportation. The U.K. has opened up, and Voi is really killing it there. They're coming out as the leader and have secured several exclusive tenders in the U.K., which is very encouraging.

I think we look a few years out, not next year, not two years, but beyond there, you have a real possibility of this company being like a $400 million revenue, $100 million EBITDA company, which, of course, will leave the market caps where we have it valued at today in the dust behind itself and really move higher. As you can sense, we're very enthusiastic over this and very happy to be shareholders of about 30% of the company. Okay. I think in terms of general updates, I think that may be a good starting point. If the operator could help us move over to Q&A at this point, I think that would be good.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question for our speaker, please press zero one on the telephone keypad. Thank you for holding until we have our first question. Our first question comes from Mr. Lars, Aretha Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, Per. There is a lot of questions on Babylon, but we could take the most important question in terms of opportunity going forward. How do you see the opportunity for value-based care for Babylon, and what do they need to prove to expand that segment?

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Well, value-based care is an enormous opportunity for Babylon. It's one which, as you, I think, allude to, one that they have not been present in. I think one has to call it a new product. Where their existing product is AI as a service, just selling the software like any SaaS business, and then to provide vertically integrated products like they do in the U.K. with the NHS, and then in the U.S. up to now, Centene, a mix of those. Stepping in and assuming the full value-based care contracts, they need to rely a little bit on what they have done in the U.K. Therefore, it's encouraging to see how successful they've been in the U.K. Also, there's been some service done by the NHS to share with their counterparties on how Babylon has fared as a digital GP.

They've come out really well in terms of where the Babylon GP at Hand can present. They have shown to have reduced hospital costs by some 30%, which is what you'd expect from a digitalization, and I think it's been present in other forms of digitalization that those have been the kind of movements. Where Babylon is present, in contrast to maybe other more niche products, this is serious numbers. You apply that to value-based care operators who come from a very offline and traditional way of handling patients coming out of the insurance system. Those numbers, of course, tell a very strong picture in terms of profitability on value-based care. Value-based care is not maybe the SaaS margins kind of business, but the opportunity is enormous and Babylon's experience from the U.K. should be relevant for this. We're very excited.

It's a new product and so, as always, there's risk around it when there's something new, but very exciting.

Speaker 4

I know it's really hard, on a like-for-like basis given a contract, could you give us some kind of hint what it would possibly imply in terms of extra revenue and profits? I understand that revenue will be higher, but margins lower. In the end, what will be the end results in terms of profits? From a value-based contract.

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

I think it's a little too early to say the end game of this. We'll need to come back on that as we go along here. I think you can imagine a digital product with the sophistication of the Babylon one has the potential to disrupt the traditional value-based care world in a big way. At this point, if you assume that the traditional value-based care operators run well, they make money with very traditional tools. You just take the NHS survey I just mentioned and where Babylon have been present and helped reduce hospital bills with 30%. That's margin right there. It's simplistic and crude, but I think that's the best way to model it right here. That you run it well, historic tools.

There is obviously return that leads people to do it, and Babylon should be able to improve that by just that 30% .

This is new, and there will be lots of opportunities to come back to this as we go along.

Speaker 4

Okay. A question on BlaBlaCar here. It's not much to do about the COVID-19 situation, but given that BlaBla is financially strong, having a strong cash position, is there any M&A opportunity? There is some smaller platforms in some of the emerging markets that are financially struggling now that they can acquire cheaply.

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Yeah. For sure there will be. Nothing is live from where I sit, although we are an observer at the board right now. Management will for sure be more active in this. Yeah, the sector is struggling, especially on the bus side, both in developed markets and developing markets, using an old textbook lingo, but emerging markets versus Europe, basically. You see the bus side of things especially struggling. For sure, there will be opportunities coming out of that struggle. There's nothing really live and on the table just yet.

Speaker 4

Finally, it's really welcome that the U.K. is opening up for Voi. What would be the main risk that the U.K. authorities snap back and that this temporary license will not be extended to be permanent license in 2021?

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

I don't think that's a U.K.-specific risk. I think that risk is very low, and we're humble about that this is a new product. I think as we here in Stockholm and across Europe really have seen that this platform of transportation, now e-scooters can develop into virtually anything, is the way of the future and is the big revelation as that has really become part of cities' infrastructures. The U.K. were just a little bit slow waiting to see how things were developing in continental Europe, I think is fair to say, and trying to learn from that and then go about it in the best possible way. You speak to your friends in London, and they are totally uninterested in getting on the tube to go to work. There's a clear demand from voters, population for this.

One understands why they accelerated the starting of this. I think that risk is very low, really.

Speaker 4

Finally, as Voi was not awarded a contract in Paris, has the team analyzed what possibly could have gone wrong? I know the details is not out yet, but what's their internal analysis of the situation?

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Of course. Not getting the Paris license is a little irritating. One has to be clear about that it's more a feather in a hat rather than a foundation of the company. Some of these contracts that they have, the individual contracts that they have won in the U.K. and London, we're not yet in London. Those contracts on an individual basis are more valuable than being one of three in Paris. In terms of value of the company, it's basically no big deal. Of course, Paris is Paris, and it would have been a nice feather to have.

Yeah, the company's, of course, going through that, and I think there remains some work to be done around that, and I think it's fair to say that the company has in no way given up on Paris. And if not being able to address it in the shorter term, they will 100% be back when those licenses are up for renewal, which is two years down the road. That's the fighting spirit of the company. I mean, in terms of our upside scenario, it doesn't really change it.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you.

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. We have another question. Dear participant, please introduce yourself before asking your question. Sir Madam, please introduce yourself.

Speaker 3

Hello.

Operator

Yes, sir. Your mic is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

My line's open. Thank you. Didn't hear my name. Well, I would like to ask about the valuation of Babylon. Your valuation is actually higher than the valuation stated by Kinnevik in their quarterly report a month ago. I would inquire about the reason for the different valuation that you give Babylon compared to Kinnevik.

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Yeah. I think you'll have to ask Kinnevik about their valuation, but our valuation is very much one which is sort of founded on, based upon how we go about looking at our companies. I think as most people do, that you look into the future and you make assumptions on what you think is a reasonable sort of development, revenues, earnings, and over the nearer term. That's how we go about it. Then you apply that and you try to be sort of conservative and reasonable about that, not getting ahead of ourselves, but still looking a year or so into the future, and assumptions around that, and then multiplying that with sort of multiples which we derive from a group of listed peers across the globe.

I know that we come out with something larger or higher number than Kinnevik. I think Kinnevik has to sort of comment on their side. What I think is fair to say is that it's not the first time. We are very close to Kinnevik and have been investing together with them for, scary, long time, but over a decade. Long, 15 years. Anyway, it's not the first time where their valuation mechanism has rendered a lower number than ours, and I think sometimes they look at the situation as is now and maybe even how it's been for the past while, whereas we look more into the future. What's right or wrong, we think the way we go about it is a reasonable way to value these kind of companies, for sure. I hope that helps.

Speaker 3

Well, future will see.

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Future will see. Exactly.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. Thank you for holding. Ladies and gentlemen, as a final reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. We have no further questions. Dear speaker, back to you for the conclusion.

Per Brilioth
CEO, VNV Global

Okay. Well, thank you everyone for listening in. You know where to reach us if you have any other questions. Otherwise, our nine-month report is going to be out on October 23rd, which is a little earlier than usual. I look forward to speaking to you then. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect.