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Earnings Call: Q1 2025

Apr 23, 2025

Johan Ekdahl
CFO, Volvo

Good morning and welcome to the Volvo Group Q1 Press Conference. Today we'll do as always, we listen to the presentations by Martin and Mats and then we follow up with a Q and A session. With that I hand over to you, Martin.

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

Thank you, Johan. Thank you for that and also from my side. Welcome everyone to this Q1 2025 presentation. I would like to start with saying that it has been a rather eventful time here. That is not, so to speak, exaggeration. As we conclude the Q1, I would also like to take the opportunity to thank everyone that has been involved, customers, business partners and colleagues. It is more important than ever to work closely together. That is a strong asset that we have, that we have very close relations. Overall, the underlying activities in many markets during the quarter have been, as a matter of fact, rather stable.

There is of course an elevated level of uncertainty around increased trade barriers and their effect on both local and global economies. For North America in particular, the increased uncertainty means that we are now taking down our forecast for the markets for the full year, both for Group Trucks and VCE. However, globally the order intake for the quarter was positive in relation to Q1 last year for all business areas. That goes also in the different truck business areas. Europe specifically did show a rather positive trend.

We are also proud that Volvo Trucks maintained market leadership in Europe with a market share for the first time actually exceeding 20%, 20.1%, and combined with the northern group reached over 30%. Across the group we have continued to prioritize high quality in the business by focusing on our customers' service operation. I will come back to that. Volume flexibility in the industrial system, tight cost control combined with, given the current situation, commercial discipline and price management, specifically for volume flexibility, we are in a good balance for almost all markets and regions.

The only exception is still, I should say Group Trucks North America, where we continue to have more costs related to specific situations. Firstly, the continuous ramp up of the all new Volvo VNL and that is also now adding with all new VNR, the regional model where extra resources and costs still have been needed. This situation has gradually been improving during the course of the quarter and secondly the increased hesitation among customers in North America to place orders given uncertainty in general. We are therefore as we speak, adjusting production levels for Group Trucks in North America to minimize the under absorption in production going forward.

It is clear that we have had an under absorption during the quarter. On the positive side, in North America, the impact by low levels of cab supply that have hampered Mack is now overcome after our takeover of the production plant during the fall. That has been a great work done here. In total, the specific events for Group Trucks in North America affected the global truck margin negatively yet for another quarter here. I have to say also, more importantly, we are firm on building a strong American platform with the introduction of the new platforms. That is, of course, I mean, if I may put so, a little bit of short term pain for long term gain.

A good proof point was the launch of Mack's new Pioneer long haul model that you did see here in the introduction of this press conference. Moving forward in these turbulent times for global trade, it is important to focus on activities that we as a company can affect here and now. We will continue to build on our strong regional value chains combined with global capabilities. We work actively to adapt flows, production capacity if needed, and commercial terms to mitigate the effect from tariffs.

In addition to the normalized markets that we have seen and the subsequent impact on demand and in times of uncertainty, it is also essential to from time to time, take a step back. It is motivating to know that transport, logistics, and infrastructure will remain exciting growth opportunities for many years to come. In that regard, we continue to maneuver from a position of strength. We have high customer satisfaction and strong relations. We have a solid foundation with the right people, well-invested industrial and commercial backbones, cutting-edge technology, and a strong financial position.

If we summarize the quarter, net sales declined to SEK 122 billion, on the back of lower volumes. It was a year-over-year drop of 7% with or without currency. Our adjusted operating income came in on a level of SEK 13.3 billion, corresponding to a margin of 10.9%. Q1 is normally a somewhat weak quarter in terms of cash flow. In Q1 2025, we generated SEK 1.3 billion in free cash flow. The year-over-year change is mainly an effect of the lower operating income, but also slightly higher investment and mainly related to the assembly plant we are building in Mexico.

At the end of the quarter we had a net cash position of SEK 77.9 billion. Return on capital employed industrial operations was at 31.8% and earnings per share at SEK 4.86. All in all, we summarize another solid quarter and resilient quarter in terms of correcting markets. If we then move to the volume developments. Total truck deliveries declined 12% in Q1, with heavy duty deliveries holding up relatively better at -7%. For construction equipment, deliveries decreased by 7% with Volvo coming down 12% and SDLG increasing by 30%.

Maybe it's worthwhile noting also when it comes to the truck deliveries, I didn't have that here, but that it was also a rather a big change in the mix here. Related also to the order intake during the last part of 2024 here. Volvo actually had a bigger decline in relation to than Renault and Mack actually increasing as you have seen here.

When it comes to electrification, with the different uncertainties obviously now also linked to the general economy, there is a hesitation of actually placing orders. I mean it's a hesitation overall to place orders in some of the markets. Of course to add moving into a new type of business model is of course not the right timing here. The underlying demand has been slowing down and the switchover is still driven by early adopters that have started, so to speak, that journey.

Still, orders for fully electric vehicles increased with 138% and it was mainly driven by Renault Trucks like commercial vehicles and SDLG machines in China. That was the same trend that we did see in Q4 2024. Deliveries increased with 58%, also supported mainly by the same two main reasons, SDLG in China and Renault light commercial vehicles in Europe. In summary, and this is important, despite the slowdown here and now, we continue to push in this field, which is for example reflected in our high market shares for medium and heavy duty trucks in Europe, around 60%.

Also, as we see that the early segments out is continuing to grow, for example city buses, vehicle and machine sales. If you take those segments on the back of lower volumes, vehicle and machine sales declined 9% adjusted for currency. Truck sales declined 10% on 12% lower volumes. Construction equipment sales of machines were down 10%, driven by lower volumes in Europe and North America.

Bus sales increased by 5% despite 5% lower volumes than the same period last year. One of the effects here is actually electrification. We will come back to that. For Volvo Penta, sales were down by 5% despite volumes down by 70%. That was also holding up well here. When it comes to services, the service business was slightly down compared with the prior year and amounted to SEK 129 billion 12 month rolling. That is impacted by also the Arquus divestment last year. If we take that effect away, the underlying service sales did grow by 2% year over year adjusted for currency.

Services continue to show resilience and our efforts then to increase service contract penetration and other services will continue to pay off here step by step. All in all, I should say a solid result for services. Also showing that activity levels are continuing, or rather good levels in the installed population here. Group news, we held a well attended AGM actually in beautiful spring weather April 2nd. In April, the meeting, then shareholders resolved that an ordinary dividend of SEK 8 per share and an extra dividend of SEK 10.5 per share should be paid to the shareholders for fiscal year 2024 in total.

We distributed SEK 37.6 billion to our shareholders, the largest dividend so far from a Swedish company. That said, and that is important, we continue to maintain a strong financial position moving forward. We also have obviously, as all of us now, had a high focus on mitigating the effects of different trade barriers and tariffs. A couple of words around that. Trucks, for example, Volvo Group, when it comes to North America, has all its assembly for the North American market in the United States or also key truck components are assembled in the United States.

Of course we will have certain flows coming in from, so to speak, non compliant USMCA regions in the world, not at least then from Europe. That then will have a tariff effect as already have been then announced by the US administration. For construction equipment there, it's a little bit of different picture. Majority of volumes imported and mainly them from Sweden, South Korea and Brazil. We are working now with the mitigations here. Having said that, I think it's important also to take a step back and see how we are operating.

If I take trucks here as an example, we are operating with regional clusters where, so to speak, a main part of our ticket activities are taking place. The main reason for this is of course that we have products that are tailor made for our customers and thereby we want really to make sure that we have short lead times with the right type of specification. That platform moving forward, that industrial footprint and platform moving forward will serve us well. Obviously in between here we have flows, as I said, about ports and components that we need now to work through and see how the different effects will play out as we move forward.

It will be adjustment of flows, adjustment of volumes in different parts of the world. We will work with the commercial effects obviously and pass through that, as we have seen, for example, on the steel and aluminium tariffs where we are working with pass through measures. That is, I think, very important to have in mind as we move forward, giving us a good opportunity to continue to maneuver. When it comes to the truck side, we continue to drive innovation to strengthen our customer value propositions. Globally in Q1, despite then as we said many moving parameters, was no exception to that rule.

In the US, our iconic Mack brand and the day for the day here, both Mats and myself, we brought actually the Bulldog with also a small sign saying 125 because Mack celebrated its 125th anniversary on April 8th in Brooklyn, New York where the company actually was founded by the Mack brothers.

The day was also celebrated with the launch of Mack's all new Mack Pioneer as you can see here, which is designed for long haul trucking and it sets new standard in terms of driver comfort, advanced aerodynamics and game changing fuel efficiency. This is really a game changer for Mack when coming to really regain their position in long haul. Also Volvo's most fuel efficient truck to date, the Volvo FH Aero won the Green Truck award. We do know that this truck with its aerodynamics and efficient powertrain is at the top. This independent test carried out in Germany confirmed its leading savings in fuel and CO2.

Continuing on with the changeover to the new Volvo platform in North America, we launched also the all new Volvo VNR, complementing then the VNL, and this VNR is for regional haul. When it comes to market environment, let me begin my comments here to the slide with stating what is maybe obvious for everyone at this point in time: uncertainty is rather elevated. It comes with a significant uncertainty given the market conditions. Everything that is going on here, both in the short term, but this is what we see right now in Europe to start with, our forecast for 2025 is unchanged at 290,000 units.

Having said that, utilization of trucks is on good levels and the market is still replacement driven with an increasing share of fleets. Just looking at the current underlying fundamentals, one could argue that there is upside to the forecast. With everything that is going on, this is for the time being our best estimate. In North America we take down the forecast from 300,000 to 275,000 units. That goes down for US, Canada and Mexico combined. Obviously there is uncertainty about the tariffs and trade barriers and also about issues.

EPA 2027 in this forecast means that we do not expect any pre buy related to EPA 2027 for 2025. We had that previously that we thought maybe that should start in the later part of 2025, but of course the development here is still uncertain. In Brazil we take down the forecast slightly from 90,000 to 85,000 trucks on the heavy duty side and agriculture and mining segments are still holding up, export oriented as you know, where the domestic economy is impacted by higher inflation and increased interest rates.

India, somewhat correction upwards, we are correcting heavy and medium duty up to 380,000, that is plus 10,000 in relation to last forecast, and we maintain our forecast for China market of 710,000. Book-to-bill, we did see a good order activity with the positive book-to-bill in Q1. Specifically for medium and heavy duty trucks, book-to-bill in Q1 was 114%, and for 12 month rolling then 99%. Year over year, orders did grow 13% to over 55,000 trucks and with 19% to almost 48,000 units for heavy duty segments.

The European book-to-bill in Q1 was strong at 137% with both Volvo and Renault growing and the uncertainty then in North America is evident in the book-to-bill with a mixed picture between Volvo and Mack. Orders for Mack were increasing while Volvo being hampered by the changeover to the new trucks as well as weakened demand in the long and regional haul segments. In total, orders were up 6% in North America in relation to last year. South America, Africa, Oceania, Asia also had strong developments of book-to-bill in the quarter truck market shares. I've been a little bit into it.

Volvo Trucks recorded an all-time high market share of 20.1% in Europe in heavy duty and Renault Trucks had its highest market share since the Q4 of 2012 actually with 10.5%. In total the group had 30.6% market share. In Europe in terms of battery electric trucks we still have more than half of the market with a combined share of 60%. In North America Mack Trucks has regained market share with an improved supply chain situation as I alluded to. While Volvo Trucks has been hampered by the changeover to the new platform and also an unfavorable mix, all in all a rather stable share of 14.1%.

The new products on both Volvo and Mack side will provide us with opportunities and really good opportunities to grow market share as we move forward. In Brazil, Volvo remains the market leader with close to 24% and in Australia both Volvo Trucks and Mack Trucks were somewhat lower in Q1 with a combined share at almost 22%.

Moving then over to VC and construction equipment also on this side we continue to push innovation and to roll out important new products. At the construction trade show Bauma in Munich in April, Melker and team unveiled the first the electric haulers in the A30 and A40 size classes and Volvo CE also showcased the groundbreaking all electric lineup of excavators, wheel loaders, articulated haulers and compact machines. Of course it's important to add that, I mean the customer can get what the customer wants. We have of course this lineup also for combustion execution and also for different type of fuels in that sector.

In the quarter Volvo CE also launched a new A50 that is actually fitting between the A40 and A60 size classes articulated hauler model in the very important North American market environment. Also here uncertainty also apply of course for construction equipment as it is for trucks. In Europe, if we start there, we guide for a flat development for 2025 in relation to 2024 and that is unchanged in relation to previous forecast. In North America, on the back of increased uncertainty, we guide for a continued decline and our guidance is now minus 10% as midpoint in relation to 2024.

That is a slight change as we had minus 5% as midpoint in the previous forecast. In South America and Asia, we stick to a flat development for 2025; that is also unchanged. In China, we reiterate a slight improving market, plus 5% as midpoint, also unchanged by the way in relation to previous forecast.

Book to bill situation also here VCE showed growth with the book to bill at 111% in Q1 and 99% 12 month ruling. European book to bill continued to be good at 131%. Similar pattern as for trucks and the North American book to bill improved to 114% but as you can see then 12 month ruling still a bit low on 80% but at least an improvement here. South America had a positive book to bill at 125%. Same goes for Africa. Oceania and Asia were also positive in terms of book to bill. Volvo Buses launched during this quarter the new Volvo 7800 Electric in Mexico and that is the first electric bus model to be manufactured in the country.

The new articulated and bi-articulated electric bus is built on Volvo's global electromobility platform. We also received the first order for the new intercity bus Volvo 8900 Electric. When Sörmlandstrafiken, that is one of the Swedish PTAs or public transport authorities, ordered a total of 106 electric buses to operate in Sweden, whereof 60 Volvo 8900 Electric. Volvo Buses continues its top line growth on the back of strong position in electrification and book-to-bill in the quarter was very strong at 158%. Overall demand for coaches continued to be good and order intake year over year was up 123%.

Penta, then Volvo Penta in the quarter started serial production of its IPS Professional Platform, the biggest IPS system so far, and it was also introduced to the North American yacht market. This is a great addition to the already very strong lineup of Marine in the marine product portfolio and book-to-bill continued to improve to 141% in Q1 and to 109% 12 months rolling and order intake year over year was up with 35%. Volvo Financial Services, the portfolio performance continued to be good with customer delinquencies stabilizing at average business cycle levels.

VFS continued to deliver good and stable earnings and in Q1 the new business volumes reached SEK 24.9 billion. The 12 month rolling penetration also was good, reached 29% and up by 2 percentage points compared to last year. By that, I conclude the business report and leave to you, Mats, for the financials.

Mats Backman
CFO, Volvo

Thank you Martin. Looking into the financials then and starting off with Group net sales, net sales decreased by 7% on a currency adjusted basis compared to last year. Vehicle sales dropped by 8% mainly due to lower volumes. Service sales increased by 2% adjusted for currency and Delcu's divestment. European volumes declined with sales coming down 12% adjusted for currency and the decline is mainly due to lower volumes in trucks and construction equipment. In North America, sales experienced a slight decrease of 2% FX adjusted mainly due to lower market activity for construction equipment.

South America continued to have positive performance during the quarter. Net sales increased 3% FX adjusted compared to last year and this was mainly driven by trucks and construction equipment sales. In Asia the net sales increased by 1% adjusted for currency mainly driven by our SDLG business in construction equipment and the other regions experienced declining sales in both trucks and machines. Overall effect was negative with about SEK 700 million driven by the Brazilian currency depreciating 13% versus SEK with a negative effect of about SEK 1 billion.

The adjusted operating income for the group was SEK 13.3 billion with an adjusted operating margin of 10.9% in Q1. Earnings were supported by positive development of our service business and lower operational expenses for R&D as well as S&A. While the lower trend in freight cost had a positive year over year impact, it did not compensate for the effects from reduced volumes, negative product and brand mix within construction equipment and the negative financial impact from the truck model changeover and under absorption in the US manufacturing system.

The net capitalization effect in the quarter was positive at SEK 600 million with a year-over-year effect of SEK 200 million. Guidance on net capitalization for the full year 2025 is positive at approximately SEK 3 billion with a year-over-year effect of about SEK 2 billion. SEK. FX had a negative impact of SEK 200 million in the quarter, mainly driven by the strengthening of the SEK, and given the current trend of strengthening SEK, we expect the effect of transaction exposure to be negative at SEK 4 billion for the full year 2025 and we don't provide any guidance on the full FX effect on earnings.

Q1 is, from a seasonality point of view, a weak cash flow quarter due to the seasonal buildup of inventories. This quarter we however generated a positive operating cash flow of SEK 1.3 billion despite continuing to make significant investments in the transformation. While inventory went slightly up, the solid earnings were the main contributor to the positive operating cash flow. Return on capital employed trend declined to 31.8% on a rolling 12 month basis. The net financial position remained solid at SEK 77.9 billion, supported by the positive operating cash flow generation.

Looking into the truck segment, the decreased FX adjusted net sales for Group Trucks of 8% was driven by lower volumes and slightly negative price effect on vehicles. The lower adjusted operating income and adjusted operating margin were mainly driven by generally lower volumes and the impact from the model changeover and under absorption. In the US manufacturing system, good performance was maintained through effective price realization on parts, reduced freight cost and generally good cost control. FX was slightly negative with SEK 58 million in the quarter.

Looking at construction equipment, then FX adjusted net sales decreased by 8% due to the negative brand and product mix. Adjusted operating income decreased by SEK 1.1 billion to SEK 2.5 billion. The negative mix from higher volumes in China and lower volumes in Europe and North America were partly mitigated by lower material cost and increased service business. The adjusted operating income margin reached 12% and FX effect was minor at SEK 12 million. Looking at bus system, FX adjusted net sales increased by 7% driven by product mix and service sales.

Adjusted operating income increased to SEK 360 million and this was actually the best Q1 ever for buses. The result was supported by price realization of both vehicles and parts and continuous improvements on manufacturing costs, offsetting the impact from higher material costs.

The adjusted operating income margin increased to 6.6% and the currency impact was slightly negative at SEK 30 million. Moving over to Penta, and driven by lower volumes, FX-adjusted net sales decreased by 3% to SEK 5 billion. Adjusted operating income was slightly lower at SEK 950 million and this was mainly driven by lower volumes. The solid performance in the quarter was due to positive product and market mix driven by heavy duty engines in the US market and price realization on both engines and parts. The adjusted operating margin reached 18.3% and there was a small negative FX impact in the quarter at SEK 37 million. Finally, financial services.

Adjusted for currency, the credit portfolio increased to SEK 264 billion with a rolling 12-month return on equity at 12.7%. The currency effect on the credit portfolio was minus SEK 22 billion compared to Q1 2024. Portfolio performance continued to be good with customer delinquencies stabilizing at average business cycle levels. In Q1, the adjusted operating income was stable at SEK 1 billion and the solid portfolio performance was partly offset by increased credit provisions and unfavorable currency movements which had a negative impact of SEK 48 million compared to Q1 2024. With that, I'm leaving for Martin to summarize.

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

Thank you, Mats. Thank you for that walkthrough. To conclude, I'll be rather brief here before opening up for questions and Q and A here. Yeah, as you have heard, it has been a quarter with solid earnings and returns despite continued decline of deliveries, but also extra costs mainly for Volvo Trucks in North America related to the changeover to the new truck platform as well as under absorption in production. We are addressing those areas as we speak and we do see improvements. It is also very positive to see the order intake that improved for all business areas year over year during the quarter.

Also, in these turbulent times for global trade, it is vital to focus on activities that we as a company can influence here and now. We will continue to build on our strong regional value chains combined with global capabilities to mitigate the changes in global trade patterns. We have a good traction to adopt costs selling admin industrial while we at the same time are maintaining a high priority on innovation and technology moving forward. As I said earlier, in times of uncertainty it is essential to take a step back.

It is motivating to know that transport, logistics and infrastructure will remain exciting growth opportunities for many years to come. In that regard we continue to maneuver from a position of strength. By that you won. I think we all ready for Q and A, right?

Johan Ekdahl
CFO, Volvo

Thank you, Martin. We continue into the Q and A and we do as always, we try to limit ourselves to your one and most important question. We leave the floor for everyone. We start in the room. We start with Eric.

Means. We have to consider which one you'd. Actually, answer and I'll try with this one. On the investment side, as you mentioned, quite a big step up compared to last year. You said Mexico was a part of it. For the full year then, will we see a similar rate of increase, Q2 to Q4 as we saw in Q1?

Mats Backman
CFO, Volvo

Yeah, you will see a somewhat higher level than driven by Mexico because if you're looking at the delta in the Q1, year over year, it's all Mexico actually when it comes to the assembly plant. You can expect that we have that kind of delta for the full year and maybe not the full delta, but we will see some impacts from Mexico on the full year.

Thank you.

Johan Ekdahl
CFO, Volvo

Good. Thank you, Eric. We move to the telephone line. Jefferies, Michael Aspinall, please. Go ahead, Michael.

Michael Aspinall
VP of Equity Research, Jefferies

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Martin, Mats, and Johan, just one. On Europe, you saw very strong orders in Europe. Again, have you seen that continue into the Q2, or have you seen an impact on activity levels in Europe from what's happening in the US?

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

Thank you for the question. Yeah, of course it's quite early in the Q2, but so far it has largely followed the same pattern as we have seen in Q1. When it comes to absolute levels in Europe, it has been continuing on a level that we have seen in Q1.

Johan Ekdahl
CFO, Volvo

Good. Thank you for that, Michael. We move to Hampus, Handelsbanken .

Hampus Engellau
Analyst, Handelsbanken

Yes. One question for me. Can we go back to North American trucks? You've been running dual production with the new VNL and I guess my question, you were all stepping out on reducing run rate, but what further measures have you been taking given the market sentiment and when do you think you will be in balance with that demand? Thank you.

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

Thank you, Hampus. I think this is a very important one, obviously, because when you have so many moving parameters, if you start globally, to start with, you need really to go down to the different regions and see how does it look when it comes to the balance. I should argue that for all business areas we are in good balance. Of course there are adjustments to be done everywhere when you have so many different changes. As we speak, for example, we are actually adjusting somewhat upward in Europe than for both Volvo and Renault Trucks, one example, and that goes for all the four main plants there.

At the same time in North America it has been quite a number of different events over the last three, four quarters, as we have also discussed here. What I think if you start on the positive and just to give that a little bit flavor, Mack, we feel now is through with their, so to speak, supply chain issues, I think that is an important data point to have then. I mean, given their current customer base. Now we are introducing more also diligently for long haulage. I mean they already in haul and vocational. It has been holding up. If that situation now with uncertainty will continue.

Our judgment is that it will have a spillover also to these segments. We are therefore preparing for adjustments also for Mack. That is, so to speak, the Mack situation, but well ahead of plan there. Volvo in particular, obviously we started the ramp up at the end of Q3, beginning of Q4 last year. What is happening then is obviously that you're during a period of time running in parallel, so to speak. I don't like to call it the old, but I mean the previous program and the new program. Since this is a rather big platform change, you need to have extra resources to do like that. You can also see in the deliveries that during that ramp up we were losing volumes. So the.

The loss in North America Volvo Trucks was one of the bigger than also for this quarter because what we are producing is also coming with a certain lag. That has been, so to speak, following the plans, you can say largely when it comes to our estimate of the costs related to that type of double program, maybe with a couple of weeks or up to a month of delay, because there are events happening. That is how it is. Of course also when you have these type of programs, you are ramping up during Q4. We have also been working with these volumes, it has not been fully completed, etc. Those extra costs have been there on top of it.

We did see, of course, a correction in the market. We started to see, okay, how should we adjust the extra resources for related to the ramp up also with the de facto lower, so to speak, demand in the North American market. We have started to do these adjustments during the course of Q1. We have also recently then decided to make a further step also for Volvo Trucks. That is now related more to the actual demand in the market that we see, that uncertainty is still there. There is a hesitation amongst customers. You see that in our market forecast. As we speak now, we are taking down then production also for Group Trucks in North America, Volvo and for Mack.

Johan Ekdahl
CFO, Volvo

Good, thank you for that. We move to the telephone line. Citigroup and Klas Bergelind, please go ahead, Klaus.

Thank you. Hi Martin and Mats, class of city. My question is on the gross income and I'm focusing on the impact in the truck business. You didn't call out the mix on the slides for trucks, that was in construction equipment. I think you said, Martin, that the mix took a hit as Volvo brand declined more than Renault. That's one drag. Across the under absorption, the VNL change, and the pricing, I'm trying to understand, is better focus on the under absorption. Obviously, inventories are seasonally higher, which is normal.

The destocking was more last quarter in the fourth, but despite that, you're reporting a bit weak in margins. Is pricing getting worse out of the backlog, or is the brand mix the key here, or was the changeover in VNL a bigger drag this quarter? Somebody's trying to understand the moving parts or there was a lot of questions in one.

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

Well done, well done. No, no, I should say that. I mean you're on to and Matthew compliment here because there are quite, as you said, also quite a number of parameters. I would like to start by saying that we feel again rather good about having control of the different parameters. There is no, so to speak, underlying surprise to us. Volume is of course one effect. Just to start there, the annual volume, so to speak, decline that is of 12%. That is not one effect. You have the mix effect also on the truck side obviously because, as I said, also Volvo has had higher, so to speak, decreased than the other brands.

On top of that, to your point, we have rather still material effect then on so to speak the two specific events remaining for Volvo Trucks in North America changeover as well as so to speak the under absorption. We are addressing that as we speak and we feel good about activities that is happening there and then largely on pricing.

I should argue that yeah partly you had mainly done in Europe actually in Q4 order intake a slight pressure and that was related also to mix big fleets and I mean market was going down and that is then materializing in Q1 when it comes to invoicing. That we have seen stabilizing now and rather seen an improvement as we speak now. It is a lot of focus obviously on North America when it is high uncertainty that there is a pressure.

We have said that we want to hold on. We have strong, strong products here and we are there for also adjusting production rather than to. I should argue that you mentioned it's slight price effect and that is, I think, the right wording but we don't feel over concerned about that reason. There is more to speak about the other moving parts here again, volume, and then I should argue a raw, the biggest effect of the North American events, Volvo Trucks specifically.

Thank you.

Mats Backman
CFO, Volvo

Maybe just to add, I mean as I guided as well if you have a little bit more kind of forward looking, I mean the currency will be a headwind going forward as well. I think that's also important to remember when looking at the gross income.

Johan Ekdahl
CFO, Volvo

Good return to Agnieszka Tundia.

Thank you. On construction equipment, your margin was somewhat pressured in the quarter. Can you explain what was behind? Also, given the fact that your orders now in construction equipment are quite strong in Europe and even in North America, should we expect somewhat better mix? Maybe, Martin, also if you can comment on the interest at Bauma for your new products.

Mats Backman
CFO, Volvo

Absolutely. Starting with Cedar, I mean it's basically all about mix done because I mean looking at this SD, I mean we had in the Q1 about 55% SDLG in deliveries and that is a really, really high number. That is impacting quite a lot.

If you're looking at the kind of the current order intake, it is quite good on the Volvo product side, meaning that I mean maybe we'll see some improvements going forward, but for the quarter it's definitely the SDLG being a big part. Also, below that, so to speak, also the kind of the geographical mix on the Volvo brand when we had less in North America where we traditionally have very good profitability. I would say looking at CE, it's very much related to the mix effects in the quarter.

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

It is positive to see also, I mean, to your point on Yaski, also we have a good order intake when it comes to Europe, and that was the second consecutive quarter for VCE as well. I think that is promising. Let's see also that we do not see in the books yet, but obviously the announcements also in Europe of rather big packages when it comes to infrastructure and defense, etc., will also have an effect here going forward. Obviously, I mean, generally speaking, that is good for Europe to start to think about the balance sheet, and we will gladly be supportive in that effort. Bauma, great interest.

I think the strength is that we are also in those segments showcasing that we have the different propulsion systems now ready. Not at least actually for city type of construction sites where we see more and more of the tenders are coming with demands on electrification both for emission and pollutions and close by so to speak emissions like NOX and particulates, but maybe even more for noise, vibrations and these type of factors. Really to have the full lineup plays an important role. Of course big interest around the new reveal of the articulated haulers.

Also I mean that we are now filling in with a 50 is making our lineup a true winner, if I put it like that, in that very, very, very important segment and that we are ramping up now as we speak because there is also work to have been done during the quarter in brawl. That is also step by step coming through.

Johan Ekdahl
CFO, Volvo

Good. We turn to the telephone line. Goldman Sachs. Danielle Acosta, please. Go ahead, Danielle.

Danielle Acosta
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi, good morning. Thank you. I wanted to ask on free cash flow, you've already addressed the CapEx point, but I know normally seasonally we carry in one Q but you have a pretty big drag this quarter on working capital, which is between inventories and the other changes in working capital.

Wondering if you could maybe clarify what that other changes in working capital was and give us a bit of how should we think about it this year given you probably ramping up for EU orders, getting better, potential supply chain disruptions in the US with tariffs, but also cutting production sort of how should we think about the cadence from here and on this working capital line item. Thank you.

Mats Backman
CFO, Volvo

Looking at working capital and the different components to start with, we have an inventory built up in the Q1, but what I would like to stress is that the built up is less than we normally see. Even if you're looking year over year, we have much less in terms of inventory built up this quarter than comparing to last year and the quarters before that as well.

I mean very, very well managed by the organization when it comes to inventories, when it comes to other working capital items. Where we have quite a lot of volatility is related to the payable side, and that is actually more of a calendar effect than depending on how many, I mean, we are making payments a certain weekday, and if you have four or five of that kind of that weekday, then you will have a positive or a negative impact. That is more a kind of a calendar effect on the payable side than overall on the cash flow and comparing to last year.

When you see the numbers then what you also should remember looking at the cash flow comparing to last year is that we had an all-time high when it comes to the cash flow last year in the Q1, a great cash flow quarter that we're comparing ourselves with now. If you're looking at the kind of the differences year over year, it's very much related to the operating income then that's the big kind of difference down and then to some extent related to CapEx done when we have a somewhat evaluated CapEx done with Mexico and the assembly plate. That is in a nutshell the cash flow experience.

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

I think it's very important just to reiterate what you said was about inventory situation in general. I think that is well managed, you have said, with our different business areas and super important in a situation where you have a lot of uncertainty, you don't want to sit with, so to speak, inventory in different parts of the world. Well done there.

Johan Ekdahl
CFO, Volvo

Good. We turn to Matthias at DNB.

Thank you. Could you talk a little bit about the Mack Pioneer? I would be particularly interested to hear how we should think of it in relation to the 25% market share target in North America and then also what learnings you've made since the I think a couple of years back you made a similar launch for a Mack highway truck and then also finally perhaps you showed at the capital markets day last year that Mack was below the rest of trucks in terms of margin. How should we think about the margin profile on this? Can this help bring that up or is it other moving parts you need to move?

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

Thank you for that question. It comes in handy as we said. I mean we launched that now and that is then a continuation of the changeover we are doing in North America and it's a big investment as we have been talking about before here, both when it comes to the product but also industrial. What is important to understand is that this is a real, so to speak, platform change for Mack.

The Mack Anthem that we did was that in 2017 to 2018, if I remember it correctly, somewhere there, right, was more, so to speak, of an upgrade of the already existing platform built on the old, if I may say so, the current then back then Mack legacy platform and that was, so to speak, an attempt to re-enter.

We did see that the competition here is too high in order to be a real contender for that. It was the hardcore, so to speak, Mack fans that hold it's a good track but in reality the industrial system is not geared for that type of products. Also what we are doing now is that we are, as we have done in Europe, building a modular platform for the two brands for the different type of categories. Very strong as you can see, still brand distinction. You have, so to speak, the Mack feel when it comes to that type of customer categories when it comes to the driver experience, when it comes to the driver interface, living spaces, etc.

When it comes to aerodynamics, when it comes to weight, when it comes to fuel efficiency, when it comes to technology, it is really up to the top type of long haul product. Also supported by an industrial system that will give us, so to speak, scale where it matters. At the same time, brand distinction where it matters. Today, just to give a ballpark, I mean Mack is sitting on 1.2 to 1.6 depending a little bit on the markets on the long haul segments. In reality, almost absent type of segment for Mack, we have high in relation to that ambitions, but still realistic ambitions.

Thinking about that long haul in certain market conditions, or up to almost 50% of the total market, that will be a very, very important part of Mack's journey. Even if we talk about like 5% to 6%, that is more than realistic given the performance of this, we can do that without being too aggressive when it comes to our commercial conditions and at the same time utilize, I mean, the strength of the network that we are already sitting on. We are very excited about it. I was over together with colleagues and of course all the colleagues in North America meeting customers and dealers and people are super excited about this. I mean, Mack is back when it comes to long haulage.

That was the statement. I mean, now we will start to ramp up this in the later part of Q2. By the way, also a lot of good learnings from the VNL ramp up. What we have done now in New River Valley for Volvo, we have also good, so to speak, learning curve.

Mats Backman
CFO, Volvo

For Mack here on the margin then I guess that was also a question. Looking at the kind of the performance for Mack, I think the first step when it comes to margin improvements is all about volumes. We have been kind of supplier constrained and given the challenges we have had on the supplier side, good leverage on additional volumes. Even though we are not disclosing the different brands, I mean Mack had a good kind of performance. Now when we see the which confirmed.

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

Also, I mean clear believe that volume will give that.

Mats Backman
CFO, Volvo

To sort out the kind of the supply issues and getting volumes through the system is by far the most important thing to start with and will bring up the kind of the margin for Mack and then on top of that the new launches as well. The first step is really getting the volumes done.

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

On top of that, I mean the industrial system for Mack will be completely different and much more aligned to, I mean professional if I may say so, industrial system that we see for Volvo Trucks in North America, but also for Volvo renewing in the rest of the world. It feels really exciting.

Good.

Johan Ekdahl
CFO, Volvo

We turn to the telephone line. Morgan Stanley and Shaquel Kirunda. Please go ahead to Shaquel.

Shaqeal Kirunda
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi Shaquel from Morgan Stanley. Thanks for taking my question. Clearly sentiment has changed significantly since last quarter, especially in North America, of course impacted by tariffs and EPA. If we look at the new market outlook, what's baked into your expectation for 275,000? We know you no longer expect a pre buy but to what extent do you still rely on a second half improvement and what drives that?

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

No, but I should say that, I mean first and foremost I think that if you look at the deliveries in the market, etc. 275,000 is a rather, so to speak, sizable adjustment already now and we should say that the pre buy effect that we expected for 4.25 was rather related to the later part of the year and depending also on the general sentiment. I should not say that the full, so to speak, decline here is related to EPA. It is also related to the general uncertainty. I think still, still I mean this is the most realistic scenario when we see different order activities. I mean it has been a bigger hit when it comes to the over the road segment, mainly long haul but also regional.

We start to see certain effects now more related to the uncertainty, wait and see for vocational like construction and other oil and gas etc. than the actual so to speak absence of need for it. If clarity will come back I think that will also support, so 275 is the best scenario we have now. Having said that, with adjustments we do of course we are prepared to continue to adapt if that is necessary. Now I think we are onto it and we are rather early out to do the adaptions also.

Johan Ekdahl
CFO, Volvo

Right, we move to Björn Annwall.

Yes, trucks in Europe. We've seen deliveries quite low a few quarters, but also orders quite strong 2/4, and you're ramping up. I assume we see better deliveries looking ahead. What will take you to hike your forecast or the outlook for the European demand?

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

No, I think that is a very good question obviously. I should, I think I could be transparent saying that we have discussed that also already. Where are we really now? When we said 219 as already said in my presentation here, if anything we see, so to speak, an opportunity on the upside here, but given, so to speak, so many uncertainties etc. To already now do it. We have had two consecutive quarters with good order intake and positive book-to-bill and I said that it has started good also now in April here. Let's see. What I mean about that is also, I mean, typically weaker order intake Q3, Q4.

We see that coming through in deliveries now not only for us but for the market in general. We have gained market share even if we have lower deliveries year over year. Again, depending on how different parts of the whole system will adjust now. We are planning to adjust upwards as we speak for Volvo both in Ghent and Tuve and also for Renault in Bourg and for Volvo and Renault in Blainville for the medium. YouTube basically.

Sounds good.

Johan Ekdahl
CFO, Volvo

Thank you. We turn to JPMorgan, please go ahead.

Morning. Just one question please. Can you help us a bit on North American production sequentially Q2 versus Q1? How do you see that in the light of the order intake? What's the share of temporary workers you have in the region and excluding Mexico? Are you looking at some drop CapEx contention measures or, you know, cash contention measures, CapEx reduction measures in Q2 versus Q1 to protect cash into the first half? Thank you very much.

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

Thank you. I mean first and foremost I think of course we're always cautious about, I mean different activities when you have a high level of uncertainty that goes on the cost side, it goes on the PPE or the CapEx side. Obviously having said that, I think it's also very important to have a little bit longer view than a quarter when you're planning for CapEx. That is also a very important reason why we have said that it's important to maintain a strong financial position, maneuverability in order not to be too much stop and go when it comes to your CapEx because that will eventually be much more expensive and disturbing than actually go along.

If you see more systematic or structural changes, then of course we are adapting and, I mean, if there is a really weak outlook, we need of course also to adjust in order to maintain the right type of balance. What I feel is that we have been showing over quite many years now that we are responsible when it comes to our CapEx in relation to what we can so to speak afford. We will continue to work in that direction. When it comes to, and that goes obviously for, I mean North America as a case, we have seen that constantly when markets have been coming back and peaking, we have been losing out share already, so to speak with our current and previous programs.

We don't want to have that situation again. Mexico is an add on. Of course this market will come back. I mean, the need of transport logistics infrastructure will continue to be there. This is an add on well placed for us on the western part of that continent, complementing then our main facilities in LVU and in NRV. When it comes to the flexibility, we have the right type of flexibility. That's the reason why we are now actually adjusting. We are adjusting during the first half of the year with approximately 1,000 positions here. If we take Mack and Volvo Trucks, North America combined.

Johan Ekdahl
CFO, Volvo

Good. That brings us to the full hour. Thank you for listening in on over the streaming and also in the room. With that, thank you for today.

Martin Lundstedt
CEO, Volvo

Thank you very much. Thank you.

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