Welcome to the third quarter press conference from the Volvo Group. Today we will listen to our President, Martin Lundstedt, and to our CFO, Mats Backman. We'll follow up with a Q&A session. With that short introduction, I hand over to you, Martin.
Thank you, Johan, for that. Also from my side, welcome everyone. It is encouraging to see, by the way, the new VNL here. You did see that. Maybe you did see Johan most here in the studio, by the way. For everyone listening to the web, I think you did see the VNL. Now, when it's a little bit turmoil situation in North America, it is encouraging to know that we have a great product range coming out when the market is turning back, basically. Coming to this quarter then, we are in a period, as you know, with weaker demand in our key regions, anticipated to some extent, but also, of course, some other factors. Especially then for North America, with a high level of uncertainty and wait-and-see mode among our customers.
I have to say, despite the many moving parameters that we see right now, the group had a solid performance with an adjusted operating margin of 10.6%, showing a good earnings resilience also with these moving parameters. Here and now, we focus on what we really can impact in the group. We have adjusted and will continue to adjust our operation utilizing the toolbox that we have for volume flexibility. We have applied strict and effective cost control, have remained firm on commercial conditions, and continue to drive our service business that showed positive development during the quarter with underlying growth of 5% adjusted for currency and the divestment of SDLG. That is showing that our customers around the world continue to utilize their vehicles and machines, which means also that the fleet will also need to be replaced eventually, also in North America.
We have generally good traction also to adapt cost across the board, selling, admin, industrial, while we at the same time are maintaining a high priority on innovation and technology. Also in these areas, we are continuing to gradually adjust given the situation, for example, for the transformation with slower demand in, for example, electrification. Thereby, we are time-facing some of our activities. Specifically also for volume flexibility, we are in good balance for almost all markets and business areas. The only exception is group trucks, North America, and partly, I have to say, during the quarter, also South America, where we continue to have more cost in relation to the current demand. Firstly, if we go to North America, there is a wait-and-see mode, as I said, amongst customers to place orders given the current uncertainties.
We are therefore continuing to adjust production levels in addition to what has already been done during spring and summer here, but also other costs to minimize the under-resourcing going forward. Secondly, of course, even if that is a good timing from another perspective, we still have some effects from the continuous ramp-up of the all-new on-road ranges for both Volvo and Mack, where extra resources still are needed. I think it's important also in a period that we are into now to reiterate that even if the situation in Group Trucks North America affected rather heavily than the global Group Trucks margin negatively yet another quarter, we have high ambitions for North America. We have a strong platform to maneuver from now, and the continuous ramp-up of the new range is important.
We are even stronger, both from a capacity and a product range standpoint when the market comes back. It will come back. Don't worry about that. Leverage from volume in that particular market will then be crucial, obviously. Moving forward in these turbulent times for global trade, we focus, as I already said, on activities that we can influence ourselves. We continue to build on our strong regional value chains that in today's landscape is, of course, a strength, combined with global capabilities and also then that combination to mitigate the effects from tariffs and other types of uncertainties. As we conclude the third quarter with a solid group margin and resilience, I also would like to say a big thanks to customers and business partners and colleagues. If we summarize the quarter in figures, net sales declined to SEK 1,100 billion on the back of the lower truck volumes.
It was a year-over-year drop of 5%, but actually an increase of 1% when adjusting for currency. We delivered a solid result in these turbulent times, adjusted operating income of SEK 11.7 billion and operating margin of 10.6%. Cash flow was negative at SEK 1.7 billion, which resulted in a net cash position in industrial operations of SEK 45.4 billion. Return on capital employed at 25.2%, and EPS was at SEK 3.71 per share. Moving over then to the volume development, truck deliveries declined by 4% in the quarter, with lower volumes in North and South America, while deliveries in Europe improved. As you know, we've had a very strong order intake, and we needed also to push that through now. Good work in Europe here. For construction equipment, deliveries decreased by 4%. When adjusting for the divestment of SDLG, machine deliveries increased by 14%.
In electrification, with the different uncertainties, both as regards cycle, but also the enabling conditions and the rollout of them, underlying demand continues to be slow in the field of electrification. Orders for fully electric vehicles decreased by 4%, and adjusting for SDLG again, order intake declined by 13%. Deliveries increased by 27% when you have adjusted for SDLG. The new Renault Master had a significant positive impact in the truck segment. In summary, despite the slowdown, we continue to push here, obviously, which is, for example, reflected still in our high market shares for medium and heavy-duty trucks with more than 50% in Europe, even as we see now peers are coming in also with different types of products.
However, as we and the industry have the products and solutions ready, as you have seen for quite some quarters now, it is more than overdue for policymakers and other key stakeholders to push for the enabling conditions, such as charging infrastructure and actions to stimulate demand in these sectors. When it comes to the top line for vehicles or vehicle sales development, the overall figure then for vehicles and machines declined 1% adjusted for currency. Truck vehicle sales were down 3% on the minus 4% truck volumes, which is, even if it's an average proof point, still a proof point of our price discipline also in this softer market environment. Construction equipment did grow by 9%. When adjusting for SDLG again, the growth was 17%, which was supported by sales of Volvo-branded machines in mainly Europe.
Volvo Penta's 11% sales growth was supported by North America and Europe in both the industrial and the marine commercial segments. Service sales, as I alluded to in the beginning, positive development and continues to develop well, as I said, with a growth of 4% adjusted for FX in quarter three, with positive development in all business areas. If we also adjust then for SDLG, growth was underlying 5%. These are proof points of our push for more services per unit, of course, installed unit, but also that our customers continue to utilize their vehicles and machines. As I said also before, the installed fleet needs to be renewed sooner or later. Penta was particularly strong with 17% growth on the back of increased service penetration in the industrial segment. As you know, we have been growing the industrial segment over the last quite some years now.
Of course, now the installed population starts to be rather material, but also strong sales to OEMs for Volvo Penta. The group's service business pacing at SEK 126 billion, 12-month rolling, and represented over 25.5% revenues 12-month rolling, actually 28% in the quarter, which adds stability and earnings resilience. As per September 1, then also the SDLG divestment was concluded and finalized. I would also like to take the opportunity to say it was done in good faith between the two partners. It has been a successful journey. We wish the Lingong Group and SDLG continuous good success with their business also in the future. When it comes to truck news, Euro NCAP's first-ever safety test for heavy-duty commercial trucks took place late 2024. We reported that here, where Volvo scored five stars and Renault scored four stars and took the podium.
In September 25, we did it again, I can say. Both Volvo and Renault kept their scores, and Renault also earned the city safety label. This is important to us. Safety is a key priority for our customers. We stay committed to our core values here, quality, safety, and environmental care. That is why it feels very encouraging when an external panel such as Euro NCAP recognizes our focus in these areas and rates the group's brand at the top. In September also, Volvo Trucks passed the landmark of having 1 million connected trucks on roads, with further opportunities then in our service journey to serve our customers with advanced digital solutions. Mack Trucks started production for the all-new Mack Pioneer at its Lehigh Valley Operation Facility in Pennsylvania, United States.
That is, of course, also a very important milestone for Mack Trucks since we have not had for quite many decades now a real, so to speak, proposition for the long-haul segment. A very promising start of that as well. Market environment, of course, early days. We are now guiding for 2026 for the first time in a market that has a lot of uncertainties. If we start in North America, as I've already been in, two customers are currently in a sort of wait-and-see mode. We have trimmed our 2025 forecast to 265,000 units. That is minus 10,000 in relation to previous forecast. For now, we forecast the 2026 retail sales levels around 250,000 heavy-duty trucks. That is, of course, subject to a high level of uncertainty, given that there are quite a number of parameters in flux as we speak.
In Europe, registrations continue to pace towards a 290,000 heavy-duty market in 2025. That is a forecast that is unchanged in relation to last time. We expect the European market to move slightly up to a 295,000 level for 2026. In Brazil, the market is continuing to correct. We have kept our 2025 forecast unchanged at 85,000 units on the back of sales from dealer inventories, while production levels are gradually taken down. We see the current cooling off will continue into the new year. For now, at least, we estimate the Brazilian market to be at 75,000 heavy-duty trucks in 2026. Also here, with the recent development, of course, contains quite a high level of uncertainty. In India, we keep our forecast of 360,000 for this year.
We believe that the recent momentum also in the Indian market will continue through 2026 and thereby forecast a slight increase to 380,000 for next year. In China, the market has increased mainly on the back of the trade-in incentive program in the market for all propulsion technologies, diesel, natural gas, and battery electric vehicles. Forecast for 2025 has been lifted to 760,000 medium and heavy-duty trucks for this year. We now expect the market to remain flat in relation to 2025 for 2026. Book-to-bill amounted to 80% in the quarter globally and a good balance of 98% 12 months rolling. For the quarter, we had two regions that significantly impacted overall order intake and thereby the book-to-bill. That was Asia at the book-to-bill level of 48% and South America at the book-to-bill level of 33%.
For certain countries in these two regions, we have been very restrictive with order slotting into us, given that we want to keep a healthy balance between order book inventory levels and production output since we are working with also dealers and market or distributors in many of these markets with block orders. It is important in this time now to keep the pipeline in trim. Have that in mind also for these two regions when you look at the overall order intake. For Europe, the book-to-bill reached 91% with a strong production push in quarter three to cope with the good order levels in previous quarters. European demand is currently stable with 2025 largely sold out. For 12-month rolling, the European book-to-bill is at 105%. In North America, the book-to-bill was in balance on the back of capacity adjustments made during spring and summer.
Further adjustments might be needed given the high uncertainty. However, with our strong U.S. manufacturing footprint for the North American markets, adjustment can also be on the positive side. It's too early to say right now. Flexibility is the key word now as we move forward, not at least in North America. On market shares, Volvo and Renault continue to deliver strong market shares in Europe year-to-date September, with Volvo at 19.3% and Renault at 10.5%, giving a total share of almost 30%. On the battery electric side, and despite that more OEMs are now delivering battery electric vehicles, Volvo and Renault combined delivered a 53% market share. In North America, Mack Trucks continued to deliver market share gains on their improved supply chain, and they are now at 7.5% year-to-date.
Volvo Trucks have stabilized their changeover process that affected, of course, the market share during the beginning of the year here and reached 7.9% year-to-date August. However, Volvo is also affected by the segment mix where the on-highway segment is under pressure, as you are aware of. Nevertheless, we see that Q3 was better, and we are now around 9% in the quarter here. In Brazil, Volvo remains solid and market leader in Brazil with 23.1% heavy-duty market share. Australia is transitioning from Euro 5 to Euro 6 this year, and for now, Volvo and Mack are at 21.5% combined. We have seen that other actors have been selling Euro 5 from inventory, but expect an improvement of market share when the whole market has transitioned now during the later part of the year into Euro 6. By that, I'll leave trucks, moving to construction equipment.
CE also continues their global product renewal we started last year. In Q3, the latest hauler models were launched into the important markets in Asia, not at least then for mining. Market forecast here, of course, also here, uncertainty is elevated. For Europe, South America, and Asia excluding China, we continue then to forecast a flat development 2025 to 2024, unchanged forecast, and also flat development as midpoint for 2026 in relation to 2025 for these three regions. For North America, we guide now for minus 5% as midpoint for 2025 versus 2024. That is an improvement of 5 percentage points in relation to last forecast. For 2026 to 2025, also a minus 5%. A somewhat further correction of the market is also anticipated for next year. China plus 10% as midpoint versus 2024. That is an unchanged forecast. And 2026 in relation to 2025, flat development.
Book-to-bill overall, book-to-bill is in good balance or rather good balance when it comes to Volvo CE, 94% in quarter three and 102% 12-month rolling. North American book-to-bill reached 80% in the quarter and 95% 12-month rolling. The North American sentiment is stabilizing somewhat on the back of healthy new equipment inventory levels, as well as rental equipment rates and improvement of utilization levels. The European book-to-bill reached 90% in the quarter as the dealers are gradually stocking up their inventories based on a somewhat better sentiment and especially excavators. That gives, of course, a push in deliveries. Orders also in Europe are plus 34% in quarter three, and the rolling 12 book-to-bill at 113% for Europe. South America, Africa, Oceania, and Asia maintained a healthy balance.
Buses, positive momentum when it comes to product launches, continues to build on the success of their electric BZR chassis platform, which they now have launched with industry-leading battery capacity of 720 kilowatt hours designed for the coach segment. Also, when it comes to the European bus strategy with partnerships, has also during the quarter formed a strategic partnership with Marco Polo, one of the world-leading bodybuilders, to broaden its product portfolio and strengthen the position in the European coach market. As I said, an important step in the execution of the European turnaround strategy with partnerships together with strong bodybuilding partners. Book-to-bill 94% in the quarter as well as 12-month rolling. Customers are somewhat more hesitant in Mexico and in Brazil, while demand is stable in other regions. Volvo Penta, great momentum here. Penta's also some product news here.
Volvo Penta's autopilot takes seamless boating to a new level, and the autopilot is now also available for all Penta propulsion packages with electric steering as well. Also, when it comes to energy storage, energy segment, energy transition, Taiwan-based SeaTel New Energy has selected Volvo Penta for their energy storage solutions in Asia Pacific and then for use cases in industrial mining, remote medical support, roadside electromobility assistance, et cetera. For Penta, book-to-bill 88% in the quarter and 108% for 12-month rolling. As a last point here, we had a discussion where to put it because it is in segment Group Trucks normally, but that is Volvo Energy. That is one of our latest editions. I wanted to connect it also here because it's also in the energy sector. Volvo Energy launched their Volvo Power Unit 2000 based on our vehicle technology when it comes to batteries.
The PU2000 is a high-performance energy storage solution with a battery capacity of 2,000 kilowatt hours with versatile use cases including peak shaving, load shifting, energy cost optimization, etc. What is important to remember is there are many players in this area. We have world-class cybersecurity. Remember me saying that because you will see a lot of use cases where that will be a key driver if you are getting the deal or not because everything is getting connected, as you know. Very promising start also in this with high customer interest. Finally, VFS, Volvo Financial Services, maintained solid earnings in quarter three and delivered over SEK 1 billion in adjusted operating income for the third quarter. Portfolio continued to grow and was up 4% currency adjusted.
Also, of course, very important now where we are in the cycle, demonstrated a solid portfolio performance, although somewhat increased delinquencies and write-offs have been visible in some markets and business segments, but are on a normal level at this point of the cycle. I have to say it's great that VFS is working so closely with the other business areas, but also, of course, with other customers. By that, that concludes the business update. I will leave the floor to our CFO, Mats Backman, for the financial update.
Thank you, Martin. Looking into the financials for the third quarter and starting off with the group net sales, net sales increased by 1% on a currency-adjusted basis compared to last year. Vehicle sales dropped by 1%, mainly due to lower volumes on trucks, while service sales increased by 4% currency-adjusted with contribution from all business areas. European volumes increased, which led to increased sales by 7% currency-adjusted, driven mainly by trucks and construction equipment. In North America, sales decreased by 6% currency-adjusted, driven entirely by trucks, while sales were higher for buses, Penta, and construction equipment. In South America, net sales decreased by 9% FX adjusted compared to last year. This was mainly driven by trucks. In Asia, performance was positive and net sales increased by 5% adjusted for currency, mainly driven by trucks and construction equipment.
Other regions experienced slightly increased sales, mainly driven by trucks. The overall FX effect was negative with about SEK 7 billion due to a general appreciation of the Swedish krona against other currencies. The main driver was the U.S. dollar depreciating 9% versus SEK, with a negative FX impact on sales of about SEK 3 billion. The Brazilian real and the euro depreciation also had a negative impact on the net sales. If we're looking at the adjusted operating income, adjusted operating income for the group was SEK 11.7 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 10.6%. In the third quarter, earnings were supported by the positive development of a service business and lower R&D expenses. The financial performance in the quarter was impacted by higher material costs and some additional manufacturing costs for trucks, mainly related to lower volumes and overcapacity in North and South America.
The tariff cost increased in the third quarter and that was as expected, with a net impact for the group of SEK 500 million. In the fourth quarter, we expect the tariff net cost to reach close to SEK 1 billion. The net R&D capitalization effect in the quarter was positive at SEK 1.2 billion, with a year-over-year effect of SEK 1.3 billion. Guidance on net R&D capitalization for the full year 2025 is positive at approximately SEK 4 billion, with a year-over-year effect of about SEK 3 billion. FX had a negative impact of SEK 1.6 billion in the quarter, driven by the strengthening of the SEK. Given the current trend of strengthening SEK, we expect the FX for transaction exposure to be negative with about SEK 4 billion for the full year. We do not provide any guidance on the full FX effect.
In the third quarter, cash flow amounted to negative SEK 1.7 billion. Cash flow continued to be affected by the increased level of investments and the seasonal buildup of working capital that we always see in the third quarter. Return on capital employed trend declined to 25.2% on a rolling 12-month basis. The net financial position amounted to SEK 45.4 billion, which is slightly higher than the last quarter, with a positive net contribution from divested operations. Net sales for Group Trucks decreased by 2% currency adjusted, driven by lower volumes, partly offset by positive development of the service business. The lower adjusted operating income and adjusted operating margin were mainly driven by generally lower volumes, higher material costs, and some additional costs related to overcapacity in North America and South America. Tariff costs continued to build in the quarter.
The currency had a negative impact of SEK 1.1 billion in the quarter. Over to construction equipment. Net sales increased by 14% adjusted for currencies and the divestment of SDLG. Adjusted operating income reached SEK 2.2 billion, with an operating margin of 14.4%, which was an increase in both income and margin compared to last year. Product mix with less SDLG and positive development of the service business were the main drivers behind the improved performance. In the quarter, tariff costs were building up and had a negative impact on the financial performance. The volume was lower versus the same quarter last year, however, completely driven by the SDLG divestment. Currency had a negative impact of about SEK 300 million in the quarter. Over to buses. FX adjusted net sales increased by 4%, driven by price realization on vehicles and positive development of our service business.
Buses delivered a strong adjusted operating income of SEK 755 million and 12.6% in margin. This was despite lower volumes. The result was supported by a divestment of property, continued price realization of both vehicles and parts, as well as good cost control on operating expenses. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 159 million in the quarter. Penta delivered another record quarter with the best third quarter ever result, actually. FX adjusted net sales increased by 13% to SEK 5 billion. Adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 934 million, with an operating margin of 18.6%. This was on the back of a strong volume development for both engines and services, despite unfavorable product mix. Currency had a negative impact of about SEK 185 million in the quarter. Last but not least, financial services.
Adjusted for currency, the credit portfolio increased to SEK 259 billion, with a rolling 12-month return on equity at 11.3%. Portfolio performance continued to be good, with delinquencies and write-offs under control. The adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 1 billion, impacted by increased credit provisions but supported by the portfolio growth. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 79 million compared to the same quarter last year. With that, I'm leaving for Martin to summarize them.
Thank you, Mats, for that walkthrough. Here we have the summary slide. I will be short so we can open up for Q&A. Of course, I would like to summarize where we started. It has been a quarter with solid earnings despite the high uncertainty that we currently are facing in many markets. If we look through across our business areas, good results. Penta, as Mats was into, VFS, very important, of course, that we have the situation under good control together with our customers and dealers, construction equipment, despite also, of course, the situation that we have in North America there as well, buses, etc., and also trucks.
It's important to remember that if you look to the effects that we see on the truck side, it is, of course, very much affected by the fact that we have a North American situation that is, of course, in flux to a big extent. Obviously, we're talking about the tariffs. We're talking about, I mean, the push also from our suppliers, rightly so, since they are also affected by different types of effects. At the same time, we have a wait-and-see mode amongst our customers and thereby a lower demand level. Having said that, I think in quarters like that, continue to focus on what you can affect and really work hard on that. The pillars that we are building in North America will serve us well. When we look across the other regions, the quality in our truck business is still on a very good and solid level.
Services is worthwhile mentioning in times like that. We have been reiterating that this will continue. 28% now in the quarter is showing that it's getting to a material proportion, obviously for all different business areas. We still have headroom for more. It's also a sign that the vehicles and equipment are utilized in the marketplace. That is, of course, a sign for the situation moving forward. Finally, maybe a comment on the order intake. I understand it will be questions on that, rightly so. I think it is important also in this time to say, OK, what are we guiding for when it comes to the total markets and not taking, when you have this type of situation, a quarter and look and try to triangulate the trend based on that.
When you look at our key regions, rather expected levels, Asia, Latin America also impacted by a further correction when it comes to the order slotting, which is absolutely the right decision to take in a situation like that. You are not ending up with balances in your working capital or, more importantly, in your inventory levels. Looking forward to the Q&A. Before that, I have also an announcement to make. That is the following, that we have the Capital Markets Day also planned now. That will be on June 10 next year in sunny Eskilstuna, Sweden. It will be in conjunction with the Volvo Days. It might be so that some of you have visited the Volvo Days.
That is a very popular activity amongst our customers when we are showcasing the latest and the greatest, of course, for VCE, but also for some of the other business areas, not at least trucks, as we found that to be a good timing opportunity. A formal invitation, et cetera, will follow, obviously. Make a note in the calendar so you are not missing this fantastic event. By that, Johan, I think I leave you to guide us through the Q&A. Thank you.
Thank you, Martin. Yeah, so make a note about June 10. We look forward to that. We have many people on the line waiting. We do as always, we stick to one question. We start in the room with a couple of questions first. We start with Erik.
Thank you, Erik. Erik Golrang, SEB. One question is always tricky. The balance sheet, just a couple of questions there. We're approaching year end and people are trying to figure out where you will propose your dividend for this year. For the fourth quarter here, is there any reason to assume anything different than normal seasonality in working capital? The Swecon acquisition, is that expected still to close in the fourth quarter? Any other guides as to how we should think about dividends for the year?
No, we have the normal seasonality. I mean, it's difficult to say exactly when a transaction will close. It will likely be after the fourth quarter. Looking at more of a kind of a normal seasonality and a normal fourth quarter, as you all know, we have the bulk of the kind of the cash flow throughout the year actually coming in the fourth quarter then. I think the kind of the dividend discussion might be a little bit kind of premature from that perspective then. Maybe a couple of things to add when it comes to the balance sheet and connected to the cash as well then, just to remind you of a couple of things that we have done structurally throughout this year then. First of all, looking at the SDLG transaction, you saw that in the kind of the increase sequentially on the net cash then.
We have some kind of proceeds coming in. Also, as important is actually a reduction of trapped cash. If you're looking at the annual report, I think we have the, it's about, if you're looking at end 2024, about SEK 10 billion in trapped cash. That's reduced with SEK 5 billion now when it comes to as a kind of a consequence or a good outcome of the SDLG transaction. We have reduced the trapped cash. Secondly, also the equity increase we have at VFS. That's a little bit kind of moving around money internally, so to speak then. We have increased the equity on VFS from 8% to 10% then. From a risk perspective, kind of taking down the risk then with higher equity. That is also SEK 5 billion that we have kind of reallocated internally then.
Lastly, if we're looking structurally on the maybe more on the working capital side, we have had a conscious discussion or a conscious decision where we have decreased the payment days also on the payable side. I think that is probably an effect of SEK 1 to 2 billion or something like that. A couple of things that has from a kind of a structural point of view changed a little bit on the balance sheet and more importantly on the cash situation.
Is Swecon closing Q4?
Difficult to say. I would probably forecast that one to be after the end of this year.
Thank you.
Good. Agnieszka from Nordea.
Thank you. Just looking at your margin trajectory from here, it seems like there will be some headwinds that you will meet in the coming quarters. One is tariffs, obviously. You indicate that the net impact will constitute almost 1% of a headwind to the margin when I calculate it. You also expect rather flattish or even contracting markets in 2026. In that environment, would you still expect your margin to improve? What kind of actions are you taking to protect margins?
Thank you, Agnieszka. Obviously, we are not guiding for that. I think more importantly, as we have said, if you look at, so to speak, the margin quality and try to be as clear as I could, when you look, for example, and I start with on the truck segment, it is, of course, most pressure right now in North America for the reasons that I alluded to. As we move forward, obviously, depending on how stable, so to speak, the different type of announcements will be, because it's a question of stability also. As I also said, it can move in either direction, to be frank. In one way, for example, the uncertainty regarding the emission legislations have brought less pre-buy than expected.
In the long run, or even in the mid-term run, I should argue that that is something good about that because we know always when we have pre-buys, we will have a hangover, et cetera. It's more the uncertainty factor that is important. The more clarity, the more in line with, so to speak, the demand in every single point we can be, because that has been a little bit of a tricky parameter during this year that it has been coming in different phases, different types of, and we feel that I've been over quite a lot now in the United States talking to customers and other partners. It is clear that people are waiting and see a little bit. That is also the reason why we are very clear and say, OK, we are guiding now for the first time for 26, 42.50.
We are also clearly saying it's an elevated risk in that guidance in relation to normal situation. I think when I look at the quality of our commercial excellence or how we are commercially doing, how we are doing when it comes to our operations, and when I look at the key regions, take Latin America, for example. Even if we have a drop in volume, we are following through in a good way, et cetera. We have the ability internally. When the external factors are a little bit too many and too many moving, you are lagging a bit. Otherwise, I don't feel, so to speak, any type of uncertainty about our own capability to manage it once we know what parameters that will be in place for maybe a little bit more than one or two weeks.
Good. We turn to the telephone line and Akshat from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning. One question from North America, a couple of parts to that, please. The first is Section 232. If you could just share some insights into your ongoing discussions with the U.S. administration as we wait for an update in the next two weeks, I think that would be very helpful. The second one is if you could just touch upon your overall investments in Mexico and what could that mean for the business going forward. Thank you.
Thank you for that. Section 232, I think it's fair to say that we are, of course, preparing for the two scenarios there. I mean, depending on if it will be implemented, it has been now announced in some channels that it will be from November 1. We have a government lockdown, et cetera. Let's see what will happen here. We are well prepared for either/or scenario, basically. If that is coming into play, it's well known that we have a 100% U.S. footprint for our North American trucks. Having said that, we are also prepared for other scenarios. When it comes to Mexico, we have a structural landing capacity in North America for normal markets and also for up markets. We cannot live with that. To add that capacity for our North and South American markets for Volvo and Mack is necessary.
Obviously, we can balance that capacity for markets depending on how different types of trade deals will look like. We continue to invest and anticipate to have a starting point of around 10,000 units and then with the ability to move north when that is needed.
Hampus, Handelsbanken.
Thank you very much. One question from me. Could you maybe talk about your thinking on EPA 2027? Some of your competitors are looking to roll out the equipment, maybe not tuned for EPA 2027 and not including the guarantee. If that's the case, have you had clients already testing this equipment? Are you expecting to roll out the 2027?
I think obviously the further it gets without exact clarity around this, the more you need to prepare, obviously, for that it will be put in place. If you are not prepared, we are prepared for that. We have our engine range in good order for the current emissions, but also for the coming. We have been testing it with customers. We have had field tests, and that will continue to roll because reading it will happen sooner or later, basically, or moving in that direction when it comes to these types of close-by emission legislations. It is more time-facing. Let's see, and I will not exactly disclose how we are thinking about if that will be postponed. Obviously, there is an interest both from less, there is always less complexity the lower you get technology-wise and also coming with certain costs, et cetera.
We will fine-tune depending on how it will look like. We are in good shape for that. We are trying to have a conversation to say, tell us something so we get clarity.
Thank you. We turn to Klas Bergelind from Citi. Please go ahead, Klaus.
Hi, Martin and Mats. Klas at Citi. First, I just want to come back to the trucks margin. Yes, the tariff impact will increase from here. Earnings are also benefiting from capitalized R&D, which is a tough comp into 2026, as you now have passed the launch phase of the new trucks. The way you guide it for volumes does not suggest much growth. Will you start to take out more cost? Will you announce your structuring to get the margin higher? If volumes do not come back, the outlook for the truck margin, as I see it, the next couple of quarters looks quite weak. Very quickly on the European outlook, quite a big slowdown here looking at orders. Just trying to understand what happened here through the quarter, particularly in September, if there was an incremental weakness beyond normal seasonality. Thank you.
Yeah. Number one there on the truck margin, as I said, the name of the game here, Klas, is obviously to get the stability in North America regardless of the volumes that is impacting now. It's weighing heavily on the truck margin. That is clear for us. Exactly as Mats said also when you look at the different parameters here. Of course, when we are getting better line of sight there, and we have gradually got that also, and we have had our changeover, et cetera, that is the key area. If we look for the truck margins in other regions, it looks as expected. It looks good. Having said that, depending on the volume development, now we are guiding for Europe, coming to your 1.5 then or the follow-up comment there.
We are guiding for 295,000 on the back of what we see in our order board and what we see in activity level, also including quarter three. If we say 290 and 295, that is what we are guiding for. We have no ambitions to lose out on market share, if I put it like that. I think by that, you can triangulate what our belief is.
Maybe one comment on the tariff. First of all, when it comes to cost, we are always addressing the cost. I mean, looking at the kind of the volumes and the adjusting, I would say.
That is visible also.
Yeah, it is. That is addressed continuously. Maybe a clarification when it comes to tariffs and being a little bit more granular. It is also in the report. If you're looking at the 500, we are clear that more than 50% of the majority of the tariffs are actually related to construction equipment and not trucks. We have the net impact we see now in the third quarter, the 500 million. There we also have one component coming from, if we're looking at mitigations of gross impact from tariffs, we have two mitigating items. First of all, price mitigation. Secondly, also the accounting when the tariffs are flowing through the inventories in inventory valuations. We are helped by that in the third quarter. Looking into the fourth quarter, the only mitigation when it comes to tariff will be on price.
Meaning that the billion, the net impact, that's with price mitigation. Again, the majority of the tariffs are related to construction equipment. This is based on the information we have right now. It is changing, as you know, constantly. If we would have a Section 232 in place, that might be giving further opportunities when it comes to price mitigation also on the truck side, on the tariff side. I think that is also worthwhile to remember when you're looking at the sequential development going forward.
Thank you for that. Björn from Danske Bank.
Yeah, one question. 2025 is quite messy. It's not always about volumes, et cetera. Can we get some color on if you can quantify how much of a headwind this volatility has been, especially in North America?
Yeah, I mean, I don't know if we can or can quantify. As I said, I think if you look to, so to speak, where we are in the cycle and our expectations on our improved resilience, to be frank, I mean, I think we have been working very clearly and diligently with that. I mean, service, better volume flexibility, better ability to actually mitigate different parts of the cycle. I should argue that at this very point in time, of course, what is weighing very heavily for us is the North American turmoil and the ability to be at the curve. Even if I think we started quite early with our adjustments in spring and summer, mainly then for Volvo Trucks and also in the midst of the changeover, we have been a little bit behind the curve because we didn't see it come with that magnitude.
Maybe also the wait-and-see mode, depending on some of the unclarity. I have to say that when I look at the year, because we have had corrections in Europe, we have had, and that is coming now also gradually, corrections in Latin America. That is, so to speak, more the normal pattern of correction of the cycle. There we are following with margin quality as expected. It is more the North American case that is weighing heavily for us. I don't know if you would like to add something.
No, I think most important is that we're taking down the underabsorption sequentially now. I mean, with the activities we initiated in the second quarter, we saw impact in the third quarter. There are still some kind of underabsorption impacts in South America and North America. It's gradually getting better with the activities we have now. We are all addressing that kind of overcapacity.
You all know, of course, with the North American market, it is like that since we do not have any own captive distribution in North America. You are even more, so to speak, dependent on being time-faced correctly when markets are going both up and down. Because, so to speak, the volume leverage on the new equipment, both up and down, if I put it like that, is relatively higher than in other markets. When you have turmoil from uncertainty in North America, it's a little bit more burdensome temporarily. I think it's also important in a situation that we are in now, as I said also in the introduction, to take a step back and say, OK, will logistics be needed? Will transport be needed? Will infrastructure be needed in North America?
Are we rather bullish about what is happening there when it comes to digital energy build-out, et cetera? Stability will come back. Have we built the pillars? We are not coming too much into here and now. I think when we look at the pillar, we know what it is. We know how to work with it short term. More importantly, we have built a very strong, so to speak, platform for the future in North America. I think it is also important to have in mind when it is quite a lot of moving parameters short term.
Good. We return to the telephone line. Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs.
Mattias after that, yeah.
Please go ahead, Daniela.
Hi, good morning. I have a question actually about Volvo Penta. You mentioned data center applications in the report as part of your strong result. Can you help us size the business and the growth of data center applications within Volvo Penta right now? What is the opportunity set going forward from you from this?
I mean, we don't guide and give that kind of granularity to Penta. It is a very, very important growth driver within Penta. We are not that granular when it comes to the different business lines though.
No, but what I think is what I think about Penta that is very exciting is that we have talked about that for quite many years now, that we have been building up, I mean, the second vertical, main vertical, I should say, of industrials. Industrials, you need more and more now to separate into several industrials in Penta with growth trajectory. One, of course, being industrial all speed. That is our deliveries into many of the industrial equipment manufacturers, obviously, in mining and in forestry and in ports and material handling, what have you, has been growing really well. Also, part of the long-term growth that we see now also in services for Penta because there, in relation to some of the marine segments, the machinery is used heavily. Thereby, it's a good service business.
The other sector that we have been into for a long time, but it has been more on the standby side, is power generation, obviously. Power generation is growing broadly for us. That's the reason why we also included Volvo Energy because it is the traditional power generation standby opportunities, not at least now for data center build-outs, et cetera, where we are good in North America. It's also the general situation about, I mean, grid capacity, resilience, et cetera. Thereby, it's a more broad landscape of the traditional hardcore power generation that we provide through GenSets, but also a broader architecture of solutions, including battery storage, et cetera, steering, cyber capabilities, et cetera, as I alluded to. Exciting, put it like that.
Now, Mattias, it's your turn. We turn it to Mattias from DNB Carnegie.
Thank you for the opportunity. I would like to ask a question about North America with your market share ambition and also looking at the two launches of the VNL and the Mack Pioneer, which I understand are quite central to reaching that ambition. How is the strategy for those two models impacted by the currently very weak market environment? Is that creating opportunities for you? Are you still seeing the intended market share trajectory that you were looking for? I know it's still early days, but could you talk a bit about how the timing with the launches coinciding with a very weak market is impacting that strategy, if at all?
No, it's a great question. I mean, of course, it is like that. On one side, you can say that it is not bad to do maybe, you know, or not maybe, for sure, the biggest product overhaul that we have done for three, four decades in North America in a market that is slower. That is good because when you do that and you are not doing a full clear cut, also, we were over actually last week in LVO with Mack. We are running mixed production, mixed model production, et cetera. When you are introducing new models, I have to say that when you are in the cycle you are now and knowing also that historically we have always been losing out when the market has been coming back and being at peak, et cetera, now we are building out capacity as well. That is good.
It's also good that we can trim and we can, then obviously, you don't need to be overly nervous about your volumes right now because the market is what the market is. Since these products are creating substantial customer value in terms, not at least of fuel economy, that we see clearly from customers is about 10%. I mean, 10% is a $5,000, $6,000 yearly fuel bill. It's very important that you are not pricing away the value that you have been creating with building this up. For Mack in particular, this is more or less like re-entering into almost like a greenfield situation when it comes to the long haulage, the heavy long haulage. The excitement is big. We will take it step by step with the right type of commercial quality as well because the product is great.
I think the name of the game, don't be overly nervous because the cycle is what the cycle is. It goes up and it goes down. Now it's a little bit down. It's a number of other complexities added that we have alluded to. These two products and what is about to come around the corner is just great.
Maybe one comment on the note that we are working what we can affect or impact really. If you're looking at the Mack and the market share development and just looking at the quarter.
It's not affected by the Mack Pioneer.
It isn't. I mean, the thing is that we are working with the supply, and we see the improvements that we talked quite a lot about last year, that is kind of giving the Mack the ability to deliver on the demand. That's one kind of self-help in that respect that is also very important to recognize. On that note, we're coming up to the hour. Please make a note about June 10. With that, I say thank you for coming today, and we see you at Q4.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.