Hello, and welcome to this digital event. My name is Bilal, and I'll be guiding you through today's proceedings. The focus, driving a hydrogen future or driving a hydrogen economy. To discuss, I'm joined by senior representatives from industry, European policymakers and representatives from the scientific community. And in particular, We'll also be looking at the role of Cellcentriq, a joint venture created by Daimler Truck and Volvo Group.
Cellcentriq has been up and running since March of this year, and I'm sure many of you watching will know what Cellcentriq does. For those of you who don't, Cellcentriq's raison d'etre is the development, the production and the commercialization of fuel cells, particularly in the use in heavy duty trucks, but also in other applications. So I think it's going to be a very exciting couple of hours. But before we get started, let me give you a quick run through of today's agenda. So we start off with 2 people very much at the heart of this, the CEOs of Daimler Truck and the Volvo Group.
That will be followed by a Q and A where you watching and specifically media will have the opportunity to throw questions to the CEOs. We then move into a more interactive part of the agenda where we invite panelists, as I say, from European policymakers and from society scientist society. That will be preceded by 2 keynote speeches, 1 from the European Commission and 1 from the German government. We will close with a Q and A and some closing words from the 2 CEOs. So without further ado, let's get started.
It gives me great pleasure to welcome our first two speakers today, Martin Down, the CEO of Daimler Truck. Welcome, Martin.
Welcome, Bill. Thank you.
And Martin Lundstedt, the CEO of the Volvo Group. Welcome, Martin Lundstedt.
Thank you, Bill, and good to see both you and Martin here. It's a big day for all of us.
I agree. It's a big day. And let's get started. Martin Lundstedt, if I can ask you first, if we zoom out a little bit, hydrogen, fuel cells, This has been talked about for a long time as a power source. But you see from the perspective of something in the dim and distant future, The pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, if you like, but things are happening in the here and now.
My question to you is What sort of role can this technology make when it comes to creating a carbon free transportation society?
You're right, Bill. We have been talking about hydrogen and the potential of hydrogen for quite some time. And I've been in this industry for 30 years, and we have always said that it's about 10 years away and then 10 years away. But Now we are really getting here. We see a clear road map for execution, both when it comes to technology and commercialization.
So it's very promising. And just to put it in perspective, we are talking a lot about electric vehicles, battery, fuel cells, etcetera. But I think it's important To put into the context that we all of those are electric vehicles with the outcome of electric vehicles that we want to achieve with fossil free executions with much lower noise with reduction of NOx and particulate matters. And then depending on Application basically, if it's more generic speaking, shorter distances, lower payload, We are talking about battery electric vehicles, better suited. There is an overlap obviously, but then when we talk about longer distances, more heavyweight applications, fuel cell electric vehicles will be very well suited.
And in particular, for demanding long haul with high level of flexibility, longer range, fast refueling and high payload. And that's the reason why we are joining forces moving forward and really to make sure that we are investing here and now to really hand over a planet for coming generations. In the Volvo Group, we are strong supporters of the Paris Agreement of the Green Deal. All our products and solutions will be fossil free at the latest on a global scale by 2,040. And thereby, the European move needs to be much quicker and a considerable amount of products and solutions by 2,030 obviously.
So fuel cells and CellCentric will play a key role and excited to have this opportunity.
And Martin, can you follow-up on that? I presume it's the same from your side, the important role hydrogen will play.
Absolutely, and really 100% agreement with what Martin Lundstedt just said about what Volvo things and the core convictions of the Volvo Group. And these are the same core convictions we at Daimler Trucks have. And that made it easy 1.5 years ago when Martin and I started to share visions and ideas how we can make bring our vision into reality. That means a clear commitment from Daimler Trucks to a 0 carbon free commercial transportation industry. I can add to that as a Chairman of the European Truck Manufacturers Association, ATSEA, that the entire industry is fully committed to the Paris agreement and the European Green Deal, which requires that the entire transport industry is emission free by 2,050.
That means that we sell the last carbon combustion engine, but at least latest by 2,040, if not earlier. And for that to reach that extremely ambitious goal, we definitely need in the mix fuel cell systems and hydrogen as an infrastructure for that. Hydrogen has, on top of what modern test said, in my opinion, 2 more advantages why we need that. First of all, trucks are often used very flexible, yes, non predictable routes, Surprise transportation tasks and where you can't plan ahead and you need an energy source that gives you reach and dependability and if indeed, immediate recharge or refill like what we have today with diesel. And that is hydrogen that flexible.
And then there is another extremely important argument. It's always easy for the first 1,000 trucks to run on electric and you sell electric power grid. But we are looking to a future where 100,000 if not millions of trucks need the electric power grid. At the same time, when 10,000,000 or even more passenger costs need the same power grid. So in this sense, we need a second source for energy, and exactly That energy is hydrogen.
And hydrogen has one big advantage. It scales nicely. That means as more people use it, as cheaper it gets. As more people require that infrastructure, it's more likely you have that infrastructure. And we come to that classical hand egg problem, I think, later in our discussion.
Thank you. A very clear endorsement, I think, from both of you When it comes to meeting the Paris Climate Accords, the goals of the European Green Deal, hydrogen is not an add on. It plays a big role in this. So it's clear it's going to play a big role. That's the what, but the how.
How is it going to happen? And I think this brings us on to CellCentric. As I said at the top of the show, it's been up and running since March of this year. Martin Ludzik, can I turn to you? How are things going at CellCentric?
It's going fantastically well. And I think it's very important when you have a discussion about solutions and who should do what that you start I mean to talking about what you should do on together with your capabilities. And CellCentric is a fantastic set of people, competencies to really develop fuel cell stacks that are competitive. We are up and running. We are building on a lot of work has already been done.
Now really having a good adaption for the heavy truck and other heavy commercial applications for the power output durability and modularity needed in order to also have the built in. We are reducing the cost as we speak step by step in a very concrete road map, so we can see also the cost parity step by step also, both with the scaling of volumes and with a very excellent work on the engineering side. And we are, As we speak also working with a pre serious production in Essling and Stuttgart. So a lot of things are happening here. And in order to make this happen, obviously, it's also about getting those into the vehicles.
It will be in Dyno Trucks, in Volvo Trucks, in Renewal Trucks and hopefully also other customers. Just but that is, of course, up to each We aim to decide because in that respect, we are still competitors and that is a very good setup here. In the coming 3 years, customer trials And then it will be a very big step, a major milestone with a large scale Gigafactory, 1 of the first on the continents for fuel cell serial production 2025 location to be announced 2022. So very exciting and concrete.
That's a really good update, Martin. And I think people watching when they see those time frames, 2025 large scale series production, That's not a long way away. Martin Daum, if I can come to you next. When we see disruption in different industries, It's often driven by the startup mentality, the flexible, agile startup that comes in new ways of doing things, new technologies, new business models. When you look at CellCentric, do you see a sort of typical startup mentality?
Bill, I can clearly answer yes on that question. It has all ingredients a typical startup is known for, Small teams working fast and agile together across functions and not caring about functions, just having one mission, Changing the world, bringing the transportation world to an emission free future, Pioneering in a new technology that can truly make a difference. All that energy level, that passion that you typically attribute to start ups. You feel it when you visit the guys southeast of Stuttgart in Nauban or talking to our team in Vancouver, Canada, working on fuel cells. But on one side, it's the answer is no.
Why? Because those, they don't have to worry about the next financial route. They don't have to kick out headlines just to attract more investors and get a little bit more money to survive the next year of necessary investments. Why? Because they have extremely strong and committed parents.
They have an absolutely strong financial base, commitment from both parents to invest whatever it takes to get that thing to 0 emission to see its production of 0 emission components, and they have a very strong know how base. This is not just a vision and a dream where we now try to try out whether we get the dream come true. We have hundreds of patents. We know that these things work. We have fuel cells ready to go into trucks to show the world.
And we have a customer base with Rolls Royce Power Systems, who are similarly eager to get the first production output out. So we have everything a grown up company has. So you can say, yes, Cellcentrep is a typical startup, But I would say it's a typical startup with a deep substance. So we have a startup with substance that can move fast to CS production.
The best of both worlds, it seems to me. Now we're going to come into a Q and A in a minute, but I just want to ask you for a brief Comment before that. You've talked a lot here about what Cellcentriq is doing. When it comes to What more needs to be done to accelerate this move towards hydrogen powered transportation? In very brief, what would you say else is needed?
Martin Lundstedt, please.
For me, the road to 0 emission is like a multiplication problem. We need an attractive vehicle offering. We need a working infrastructure and we need cost parity. And those three factors are combined like a multiplication. And you all know from high school, if in a multiplication, One factor is 0.
It doesn't matter how large the other factors are. The product is always 0. We as OEM, Daimler, Tag AG and Volvo are absolutely committed to have world class offerings latest by 2027 and the first Trucks, both companies plan to sell much earlier. Then we need an infrastructure. The infrastructure is a huge undertaking, similar huge or even larger than what we have to do on the trucks on the vehicle side.
It requires it's very demanding. It requires a huge amount of investment. It's a classical handbag problem. If we would have a working infrastructure, it would be extremely easy to sell 100,000 fuel cell trucks. And if we would have 100,000 fuel cell trucks on the road, it would be very easy to supply them with an infrastructure.
Unfortunately, we will never have 100,000 tugs out on the road without infrastructure because they would just sit there and wait then for 2, 3 years until the infrastructure pops up. It has to start parallel. And therefore, we need that cooperation with the energy company, and we need the support from the politicians to get that first initial investment up and going in the infrastructure because otherwise it doesn't matter how good our product offering is, the sales would still be 0. We need that dense network of about 1,000 H2 stations across Europe by 2,030, and by the way, the hydrogens we have to sell needs to be green hydrogen as any energy going into a battery electric dock needs to be green energy because otherwise burning diesel would still be better for the environment than burning coal someplace and then feeding that either as electricity or hydrogen into a truck.
No, I think just from my side to just complement and I fully to what Martin and Damien have said. I mean the good news in this equation that was shown is that we see also on the cost cost parity side, a clear road map. Cell centric and other companies working hard now on the cost road map for the fuel cell stack. Of course, all the OEMs working hard to implement that in their vehicles in order to have the right cost execution and the roadmaps in order to scale it, but also energy companies stepping up. And we see clear indications of €3,000,000 to €4,000,000 per kilogram that is needed for this TCO parity.
But there is a very important way forward now, the coming 4, 5, 7 years in order to join forces and also that we have policymakers talking about what can they do to get to these levels of infrastructure and to get the critical mass because then it will fly on its own and deliver what we need to do when it comes to the green deal.
Thank you both. And we will have some of those very policymakers with us So we're going to move into the Q and A now. But just my takeaways from the first session. Hydrogen Power Fuel Cell Technology is here today. It is going to play a role in the sustainable Transportation Development.
And thirdly, some of those statistics that you brought out regarding the timetable for serial production And also those volumes that Martin Down mentioned, it's certainly something which is very big. Now I see questions coming in. This one here is from Italy, from Luca Barasi from Sportara Ogi in Italy, yes. So the question is always the same. We are going towards electromobility to have an emission, 0.
But the chain to create electric energy is not carbon free. So throughout the trade chain, can we guarantee it being carbon free? Martin Lundstedt, I'll ask you to take that one.
No, I think this is a highly relevant question and a little bit adding on to what Martin Down said about the The value chain, obviously, the hen and or the chicken and the egg problem, it goes for everything. But we have shown a clear direction with the creation of CellCentric. We are now asking for a strong collaboration in all aspects. But hydrogen in itself is a very important answer to that as an energy layer, as energy storage also for the renewables, like wind, like solar, like hydro, where we cannot only rely on electric generation where it happens in a green form, but also to be able to store it and complementing the battery electric execution. So That's one of the reasons why hydrogen is such an important part of the whole equation, I should say.
The full chain. Let's see. We have another question coming in. What will be the product of the joint venture Daimler and Volvo South Centric? Is it going to be real trucks, just traction systems, power packs or some detailed parts?
Maarten, I'll ask you to take that one.
I mean, Martin Lundstedt and I have a lot in common together, and we share the absolute 100% same vision when it comes to emission free driving in the future, but there is one huge difference between the 2 of us where we completely disagree. Martin Lindset thinks That Volvo and Renault trucks are the best in the world is completely wrong, because I think Mercedes trucks and Freightliner trucks are the best in the world. And we want to let the customer decide which one is better. This race is not interrupted by any bit. That means we focus on the core, on the source, on the power source.
This is a fuel cell. This is done in the joint venture. Everything after the fuel cell, I know what Mercedes is doing. I have no clue what Volvo is doing. And with Martin, on the other side, it's the same.
There will be an exciting truck coming out from Volvo, but believe me, there will be exciting trucks coming out for Mercedes and Freightliner as well as running a fuel cell. And they will be different, the customer ultimately will decide which is the better one. So yes, we are competitive on one side, but when it comes to the heart of the power source, we are completely cooperating together.
Thank you, Martin.
And maybe yes, from my side, if I may, Bill, I think this is a very important thing that when it comes to the future transformation, sustainability efficiencies must be taken extremely serious also in this competition landscape. Obviously, The race is on when it comes to trucks, and I couldn't agree more than that we are, of course, thinking differently in these different aspects. But to drive real change and compete on a new platform, this is what CellCentric and the whole corporation is all about.
Thank you, Martin. Now we have a question for both of you. It's from DVZ, Svein Benueur. Martin Lundstedt, I'll ask you to take it first. Wouldn't it be better to invest more research in developing smaller, lighter batteries and fast charging systems.
The efficiency would be better and at least some competitors probably see this as a more practical way forward.
No. But as I started to say during the first session here, we are seeing the 2 tracks obviously. Both battery electric vehicles and different type of executions with different battery packs, with different energy contents, etcetera. Fast charging, very important, and that We will also continue to drive in the ecosystem, as we have said. So we fully adhere to that.
But in the long run, to get these millions of tonne kilometers produced every year all over the place in all applications with grids and with the flexibility that Hydrogen will play also. We need that. And also as a contender for the renewable energy generation, Our conviction is that we need the 2 of them. Both will play a very important role where fuel cell electric vehicles have clear advantages in certain areas and battery electric vehicles have clear advantages in other areas.
Martijn Daum, did you have anything to add? It was to both of you. You see it a role for both.
Yes. And I think we have to see that in the time when we talk next 2, 3 years, it's definitely battery electric. But here we're talking 1000, 10000 trucks on European roads. So in this which is small volume, battery electric certainly is more viable. But when we then look at the end of this decade and especially the time after 2030 going to 2,035 and so on, we need We don't have any revolutionary breakthrough on battery technology.
We don't have an idea how a green electric grid would look like When the entire guys, when the entire population, everything we do has to be done by green energy, whether it's heating our homes, Whether it's running our industries, whether using the electricity, we do say, but where still the majority comes from carbon burning plants. This is a huge stress on the electric system. And at one point of time, we have to transport energy from a faraway place where we have enough sun or wind to the energy hungry Western Europe or North America. And at that very point, You need an agent to transport that, and that's hydrogen. And once you have energy in form of hydrogen, then it's the easiest, most efficient way to put it in a truck.
So I see in the long run both things going parallel with most of the truck application, hydrogen will be the better solution.
Perfect. But strong agreement there, room for both just different applications. I'm going to move on to another question, and I think this is A lot of customers are going to be asking both of you at one point. It's from John Kendall from Commercial Motor. Martin Lundstedt, what price must green hydrogen be to make it viable?
I mean, as I indicated also in the initial conversation, we are looking at now and also in Seeing that from energy companies of €3,000,000 to €4,000,000 per kilogram and where we are looking at different type of aspects of the total cost of ownership and how to reach cost parity when it's scaled up, both when it comes to technology maturity for fuel cells into the vehicles and also we are talking in that range at least. But then we hope obviously with a more efficient a way of generating energy as we have seen in other sectors that can certainly also be improved. But we are talking in somewhere in that range.
Thank you, Marta Linstead. Another question coming in. I think it gets some help in making it more readable. And there's a lot of questions coming in, and we don't yet we don't have so much time, but Here we have it. Certain events have underlined the underlying technical difficulties In building these vehicles, could both of you say what you think is the single biggest technical challenge when it comes to bringing these vehicles to the road.
I'll ask you, Martijn Daum, to start on that, and that's from Automotive World Xavier Boucherat. Martijn Daum?
I mean, the question starts with a statement which I can't relate to. I'm not aware of Certain events, not in our company. We had already 10, 15 years ago, a fleet of city buses running on fuel cells out any problem. The biggest problem so far is the lack of infrastructure. So and you can say the price of fuel cell, but with the price of the fuel cell, I'm absolutely positive that ultimately the price of the fuel cell will be lower than today's battery packs Well, even tomorrow's battery packs will be for the same amount of energy.
The biggest technical challenge so far is really to scale it up and get the cost of the fuel cell down. But this is, in my opinion, very well going, and I see extremely promising results from the first, let's say, cell centric efforts and targets they have.
And Martin Linde said?
No, I can only subscribe to what Martin Daum said. And in addition, I think the modular concept of centric is very strong also with a strong focus obviously on this 150 kilowatt stacks separately and where you can combine that into 2 and thereby also creating that into a perfect fit into a truck, so to speak, architecture. And then obviously, the reason of having CellCentric in a setup with very, very close cooperation between engineering, production, sourcing, and thereby also the cooperation with any customers that is interacting with Centric is really to drive this efficiency when it comes to the scaling up of this great technology.
Bill, let me add one thing, which is a very important question, which is really For me, one of the big technical questions we have to solve, are we using liquid hydrogen or gas service hydrogen? That's more now for the really experts here Listening, but I know a lot of the journalists, especially out of the from the trade press, knows that problem. Liquid hydrogen has a far higher energy density than gaseous compressed hydrogen. It depends at the end of today we have gaseous hydrogen in the system, which is normally the gray, what we call gray or blue hydrogen. When we go to green hydrogen, especially from faraway places, it will come more on the liquid side.
But on the other side, if we go to a retail distribution system with these 1,000 stations all over Europe, it can only be either or not both at the same time. So we have as an entire industry have pretty for us come to a conclusion of what's better. The fuel cell, by the way, can digest both. So it's for our development, for the development of the truck and the development of the fuel cell, it makes no difference. But I think it will be better for society if we ultimately go to liquid hydrogen and not to gaseous.
But on the other side, gaseous is a form as we have hydrogen at the moment in the market. This is the biggest technical challenge and the biggest challenge to get a lot of players under one into one opinion, there can be only 1.
So there are technical challenges, but they're not insurmountable. And what you mentioned, of course, The other challenge, the infrastructure to support, and that's something it will be interesting to hear from our panelists, from the policymakers a little bit later on. Next question from Springer Media in Munich, Fabian Professor Veronika Grimm from Germany, a German professor, said that the hydrogen era doesn't have to start with green hydrogen. You were just talking on this, Martindale. It should start with blue or whatever color.
The implementation of green hydrogen could happen later on. Do you agree with that, Martindale?
Yes, I absolutely agree with that, especially because we talked about that Chicken egg problem at the moment. At the beginning, there will be always very few chickens, if I can call our trucks chickens, which is a strange analogy. At the beginning, we will have very few trucks on the roads. And it really doesn't matter whether this hydrogen is blue Because on the other side, the energy revolution on the energy production side will happen in the next 10 years or 9 years similar to what will happen on our automobile manufacturing side. And therefore, I would say yes.
Professor Grimm is absolutely right what she's saying.
Thank you.
What will be the world in 2,030? That is the important part. And here, I'm convinced will be on green hydrogen as well.
And we also see the investment, By the way, into green generation of energy, that will be the base for that. And otherwise, we'll everyone in the chain will use everyone else has an excuse. We should not do that. So full agreement with Professor Green.
Thank you both. That brings us to the end of our media Q and A for this first section and allows us to move on to the next part of the agenda, which is Our panel, I'll introduce our panel members in a moment. But first, as I said at the top of the event, we have 2 Keynotes to listen to tee up the panel discussion. So join us in a moment. So welcome back.
And our first keynote we'll listen to is from the European Commissioner For Transport, Adena Valian. Let's hear from Commissioner Valian.
Mr. Daum, Mr. Lundstedt, ladies and gentlemen, congratulations on reaching this important milestone on the road developing 0 emission heavy duty vehicles. Your collaboration and the launch of CellCentric are reassuring us all that the EU is capable of innovating fast to maintain cutting edge clean technologies. I'm confident that your joint efforts on fuel cell technologies will give you further reasons to celebrate in the future.
The European Green Deal sets a clear objective. By 2,050, transport emissions must be reduced by 90% compared to 90.90 levels. Today, transport represents almost a quarter of Europe's greenhouse gas emissions, and 70% of this come from road transport. We all know that road freight is a significant contributor to this. I'm optimistic that clean hydrogen can help change this, particularly for long distance road haulage.
But we are not there yet. A lot of work is still needed before hydrogen powered lorries are ready for the market at scale. At European level, we want to ensure are in place to help the sector. This requires a holistic approach, looking at both the demand and supply side for vehicles and fuels as well as infrastructure. We need our European transport to be ready to accommodate a new generation of lorries, and we have set ourselves ambitious short term goals accordingly.
Our sustainable and smart mobility strategy includes the milestone of having 500 hydrogen stations across the TENTI core network by 20251000 by 2,030. Before the summer, we will put forward a proposal to revise the alternative fuels infrastructure directive, which will include binding requirements for rolling out hydrogen refueling new financial support will be available where needed through the Connecting Europe facility and Invest EU. And of course, We, too, are continuing to invest heavily in research. To date, the fuel cell hydrogen joint undertaking had access to more than €1,000,000,000 As this our partnership continues under its new name, clean hydrogen for Europe, our support will continue. We are also helping industry to build a full hydrogen value chain through the Clean Hydrogen Alliance.
By fostering the right partnerships and working together with all relevant stakeholders, We can and will accelerate the production and distribution of clean hydrogen, which we urgently need. Ladies and gentlemen, collaboration is pretty much always a recipe for success as I'm sure it will be in your case. I will be following your work closely, and I look forward to the day when clean hydrogen powered lorries are on our roads, making a real difference to the sustainability of road haulage. Thank you.
Strong support from Commissioner Valleana, not just support, but a number of initiatives being launched to support this hydrogen journey. Of course, it's not just pan European, the European Union. It's also important, the view of the different member states and maybe no more important member state or at least one of the biggest is Germany. And we're very Pleased to have a keynote from the German Minister of Transport for Digital and Digital Infrastructure, Andreas Scheer, who has recorded a keynote for us. Let's take a listen.
And once again, a very good keynote there from Minister Schoyer. Three things Maybe I would take away strong support for alliances like CellCentric, clear support as well at member state level for the role hydrogen technology can play in the sustainable transport journey and thirdly, the need for pan European cooperation to deliver all parts of the chain. And that's a very good segue into our panel discussion because now we can actually invite 3 new guests who will join us on the panel together with Martin and Martin from Daimler and Volvo who will stay with us. Let me introduce each one of you in turn. Firstly, Pascal Confin.
Pascal is The Chair of the important influential Committee on Environment in the European Parliament.
Hello, Drew.
And then Clara de la Torre from the European Commission, DG Climate, Director of General, Generate Climate, and you're the Deputy Director General of that. So welcome to you, Tara de la Torre as well.
Good morning from Brussels. Thank you.
And then finally, last but certainly not least, from the Potsdam Climate Sorry, the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact, Johan Rockstrom, representing the scientific side or the NGO side as well, if you like. Welcome, Johan Rogstrom.
Thank you. Good to see you.
Okay. Great. Let's get into it. And firstly, I'd like to ask The 3 of you, a short reflection. The same question to all 3 of you.
When we look at things like the European Green Deal and the commitments to be carbon neutral by 2,050. Firstly, do you think Europe is on the right path to reach those Green Deal ambitions? And secondly, how do you look upon the role of hydrogen when it comes to what bigger proportion of role can hydrogen play when it comes to meeting those commitments? Firstly, Pascal Confin, I will ask you.
Thank you. Well, first, of course, thank you for this Discussion and I strongly welcome the joint venture that you are launching today as an additional step in the right direction. Back to Your question, I've been advocating for the Green Deal implementation from the very beginning of my mandate And that's chair of the environment committee. And we are now changing 50 laws, regulations, directives between now on and 2022, that means that we are going to change the rules of the game 50 times. And when you change the rules of the game, when 50 loads are setting new standards, new products on cardboard, new laboratory framework and some new technology and so on, you have a systemic change.
And we are about to enter into this systemic change and the journey is a generational journey from now on to 20 That's exactly your own vision item. 2nd, back to what we agreed on, meaning the climate flow last week. We as you might be aware of, we finally agreed on the European climate for last week. One figure to have in mind. We are going to move 2.5 times faster in the new decade 2020, 2030 than we did in the last decade, 2010, 2020.
And 2, 5 times more Means that if you drive a car, you go to, let's say, 50 kilometers per hour and you make a Speeding up of 2.5 times more, you end up at 125 geometres. So what we are doing is exactly the same, moving from a speed to 50 to a speed to 125. And it's obvious that it's not the same world anymore. And hydrogen is a key element of that. Stars are all aligned at the European level, at the national level, at the technical level, public and private for Public financing and private financing, stars have never been so aligned.
So now we can really move forward, and I strongly welcome
This moving forward.
Thank you, Pascal. The stars aligned. It doesn't always happen between industry and regulators and others, but in this case, very encouraging Clara Della Torre, if I can turn to you. It's obviously, as Pascal said, a lot of legislation required over the years. It's going to be high speed.
How does the commission see it?
Thank you very much for inviting us here, and congratulations Indeed for the Volvo Group and Daimler Trucks for this important initiative. I could not disagree with Mr. Carnfana's views. We are grateful for the recent agreement that has been reached between the European It's a political agreement. It will be formalized soon, hopefully, by the European Parliament and the caution precisely on the climate.
So this is one of the important milestones of our green deal. And there, we know that there are 2 important objectives of climate policy that are enshrined there in law. In 2,030, We decreased our emissions by 55%. In 2,050, we are getting to climate neutrality. And as Commissioner Valle has said, the road transport is a very important actor, a very important part of this the carbonization puzzle, if I can call it like this, because of the importance of the huge, unfortunately, contribution to the emissions.
So the sooner we move to 0 emission technologies and the refuel infrastructure, as the CEOs of the 2 companies were rightly saying, The sooner we move to a irreversible shift to 0 emission mobility, as we suggested in our smart mobility, the better. And hydrogen is indeed a very important part of this journey. In commission, we have launched the hydrogen strategy, the hydrogen alliance. And we are what we want to do there is to support the development of the technologies the supply of green hydrogen based mainly on wind and solar energy And supporting an investment agenda for pushing upwards the development of the hydrogen related technologies, installing, for example, one of the objectives is to install at least 40 gigawatts of renewable hydrogen electrolyzer by 2,030 and using hydrogen more and more, in particular for difficult to avoid sectors like the heavy duty and the long haul transport and eventually go to full maturity of the hydrogen technologies by 2,030, supporting innovation with Invest EU, supporting innovation with the framework program Horizon Europe with the jurisdiction that they're taking, the Commissioner mentioned, are not least with the Connecting Europe Facility program, where there 60% of this funding has to be used for climate friendly activities, and hydrogen is a very important one.
Thank you, Tara, Dora. I mean, clear agreement there when you look at that 2,050 objective, The transport sector will be a big part of it. There's strong support for hydrogen fuel cells playing a role in that. That's a pan European level. It's at member state level.
We've heard it's at from an industry perspective. If we turn to the science, and I turn to you, Johan Rogstrom, what does the science say? How big a role can hydrogen play in meeting these Green Deal commitments?
Yes, thanks. And let me start with your first question, is the European Union in the right along the right path? And then my answer there is that, yes, There is a very important plan set in motion, but we are not yet seeing the implementation at scale and at the right as was pointed out in the previous interventions here and the announcement today of a pre competitive investment into hydrogen is one of the transition pathways towards a fossil fuel free transport sector in Europe and in the world is definitely one of the Now up until 1 week ago, the European Union had the world's most ambitious climate plan And the 55% target is still unique in the sense that it aligns with science and it's more over legally binding. We should remember that with the Biden administration, the European Union now has a competitor. The world's single largest Economy in the world has set a net zero target to 2,050 and the race is on.
In fact, when you look at the numbers, The U. S. Is slightly more ambitious than the European Union because they have put 2,005 as the reference year which means 40% reductions between 2021 30, while the European Union is slightly lower. So this is a really important position we're in right now. We have what I call a G3 on climate, The 3 largest economies, China, the European Union and the U.
S. Aligning behind science for net zero targets 2,050 or slightly thereafter For China, this is a signal to business and this is a signal to the economies that now we are moving decisively towards a 0 point in terms of fossil fuel burning to run our economy. That's of course where hydrogen comes in as a key part of the puzzle and I just want to lend the scientific support also to the way that Martin Lundsted and Martin Dam has been positioning this that it's not the silver bullet. It is definitely part of our portfolio mix with synthetic fuels, Some biofuels and transitions, direct electrification, but as Martijn Daum rightly points out, direct electrification will be running financial demand curve for personal mobility and will be such a large demand just to deliver the green electricity for that sector that there's no other choice strictly speaking at that pace and scale that we're talking about over the next 10 years that for the heavy truck sector, hydrogen as a fuel cell for heavy mobility must be one part of the solution, not the only one, but definitely one fundamental part. The challenge remains though How to ensure that we get green hydrogen?
Green hydrogen in the world today to just to close this is just 1% of hydrogen production, which is a very low part of the energy mix as we know currently today. So the challenge is not only what Volvo and Diamond presents Today, the challenge is right across the whole value chain. That's why I think it's so valuable that Volvo and Daniel now steps up and says, look, we're moving ahead And that will pull the whole society with you because we need the price on carbon to rise, we need the value chain to stand up and we need the provision of green hydrogen to be operationalized at scale.
Thank you, Johan. And I think we're going to come back to that question on green hydrogen a little bit later, but really good to hear from you that the science also supports that hydrogen will play a role, albeit with a number of other technologies which will have to come together to meet the 2,050 targets. Thank you all for that. And if I can turn now back to you, Pascal Confin, and ask a more specific question when it comes to the European Parliament. I mean, you talked about the amount of legislation that's going to be needed.
That will have to go through the European Parliament. When you look upon the development of hydrogen fuel trucks, I mean, how can the European Parliament support the deployment of hydrogen trucks? Is there the appetite in the European Parliament for getting the right legislation in place to help the whole industry deliver?
Yes. So it's a package and I'm fully in line with what Commissioner Van Dijk said that we shouldn't work in silo, but have a roadmap, public and private, to work together and to implement the change at scale and at speed together. That's why we introduced in the climate law and I initiated this By the way, the support of the Green Alliance for Green Recovery part of your companies here are I we introduced a possibility for the sectors to create sectorial roadmaps to climate neutrality. And if it's, of course, on a voluntary base, but If a sector does so, then there is a mandatory dialogue with the commission to share the vision and to align our tools. So that's the first thing.
Please use this opportunity. It's voluntary, but it's now up to you to create the sectorial road map using hydrogen, for instance, to go for a long haul road transport Carbon neutral. 2nd is about the financing. We are pushing hard in the Parliament to ask the commission to come back with a clear financing plan of the transition. What has to be done by the European budget?
What has to be done by the EIB? What has to be done by national budgets and national tools and what has to be done by the private sector. And then private sector, you have, of course, the various ways to find out things that I'm not going to elaborate here. At that stage, we don't have that yet. I think it's the next step for the commission to do so, not to have a big plan Chinese way.
It's not my point at all, but at least a clear vision of the role of all the players, because otherwise, the risk is that we do not unlock the investment at speed, at scale. Last comment is about the standard. The next step will be for cars very, very short term because we are going to have a new proposal coming from the commission in June and follow-up is that will be a bit longer next year. But that will be a key element of the deal to have the right CO2 standards in place to have a de facto phasing out of non electric or non hydrogen fueled cars first and lower rates there. And to my view, the date should be somewhere around 2,035, because early it's probably too early for implementation of change, too late later, might be too late regarding the climate impact and the capacity to reach climate neutrality.
So that will be the next big discussion we are going to have in the coming months for coming weeks, I would say, forecast coming months forward.
Thank you, Pascal. Confer clearly support in the Parliament and Waiting for that road map at the same time from the European Commission, the vision of the role of all the different players. And I will come to Clara Della Torre in a minute to talk on that. But just one more point for yourself, Pascal Confin. One of the things, and it's come up several times today, is the infrastructure to support the shift to hydrogen when it comes to refueling stations, infrastructure for 0 emission vehicles.
How do you see the European Union Institutions supporting one of the biggest questions that we have?
So first, we are in the process of implementing the taxonomy regulation that will clearly give the right signals to the financial industry to reallocate capital to non harmful and needed technologies such as hydrogen and everything related to the technologies needed for the implementation at scale, at speed of 0 carbon long haul mobility. So that's the taxonomy. It's as you are probably aware, we have just put on the table the 1st delegated act the commission has on the table the first negative impact, and we will have to support it, and I will personally support it. So by the end of this year, you will have the regulatory framework in place to have the good signal for the finance industry, public and private. Then second, I would say that we are going to work closely with the sector precisely to use the 2 opportunities we have ahead, meaning the change of the 10E regulation and the 10T regulation To have a better understanding of their investment or your investment needs, what do you need as investments in terms of charging an electricizer and so on and so on to be able to use the funds that are available in the European budget to do so.
And that's back to what I said about The vision that should be shared about the investment needs and who finance what. And that's for me, Keith. That's the best way to unlock investments because we are we agree on the target, we agree on the timeline, we agree on the technologies. Now we need to unlock the investment. And the 10E, 10T regulations are key to work to that direction.
And again, it's a very, very short term discussion because it's already on the table of the Parliament and we want to open windows for hydrogen as much as possible through these pounds to speed up the deployment of the hydrogen related infrastructure.
Thank you, Pascal. Confirm, maybe I can come to you, Martin Lundstedt, to comment on that. Pascal talked about the taxonomy. Having, I think from a time perspective, a regulatory framework in place at least for finance stimulating financing When it comes to public and private investments, is this the kind of thing that industry is looking for from the regulators?
No, but I fully agree to what Pascal and also Clara and Johan have been talking about that A lot of stores are aligned now principally. What we need to make sure is that in those value And that is both the political and the industrial, so to speak, decision makers are taking their part of really implementing because To Johan's point, Johan Oksana's point, I mean, it is urgent. We need to accelerate from this €50,000,000 to €125,000,000 sooner than later. And therefore, it is important with the taxonomy to send that clear signal for the finance and for the investors, But also when it comes to regulatory, the standardization of the infrastructure as well. So what are we going for?
So we are getting more actors on board both when it comes to the vehicle supply, but also refueling infrastructure and also the infrastructure of generation of green energy. So very important to continue to be extremely concrete now together to make this acceleration happen And to make sure also that we have a holistic view on the regulatory landscape. So the capital allocation also in the industrial companies going to the big deal because we are close now on not just going in a trajectory improvement that we have seen before, not only for CO2 and NOx and but also for NOx in particulate matters and noise in cities because here it's important that we are Aligning legislation so we really can get the right bang for the bucks for the real thing that is CO2 free, NOx free, particulate matter free and noise free execution of mobility, and that is really to drive hydrogen and fuel cell electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles also in the heavy duty and commercial vehicle sector.
So thank you, Martin Lundstedt. And it's Really good to see. There seems someone said earlier in the meeting, the stars seem to be aligned. And I think from what both you're saying from the industry side and What Pascal Confal was saying from what the policy making side can do, there is at least strong alignment on the goals. Now we talked there about infrastructure.
Pascal Adelatorre, if I can move over to you now. You've heard several questions of one of the other big challenges, which is the production of green hydrogen. And my question there really is what can the European Commission Do what sort of action can it take to accelerate the production of green hydrogen?
Indeed, as I was referring in my first intervention, we have launched and proposed the hydrogen strategy. And we have also the energy system integration strategy. And both together are are powerful means of for the future supply of enough quantities of green hydrogen. We are also considering in the context of the revision of the Renewable Energy Directive, a system of European system of certification of this green hydrogen, so that it facilitates the uptake in the transport sector. We are also, as everybody is saying, as we are all agreeing, that we need the recharging and refueling infrastructure as precondition.
And we will be with the recovery and resilience facility. And the minister has mentioned that the German minister has mentioned the importance of using the facility and these plants for promoting clean mobility and Of course, promoting hydrogen is part of it. So with this resilient facility, we aim building half of the 1,000 hydrogen stations that are foreseen that are needed for 2,030. We are aiming at financing them by 2025. And also, euros 1,000,000 out of the 3 estimated that we need, 1,000,000 recharging points by 2025.
We're also looking at the alternative fuels infrastructure directive. We're there. We have to ensure that we have sufficient refueling stations, 100 refueling stations. And as the CEOs were mentioning some minutes ago, we have to solve this A hand and egg issue. And we have, at the same time, to make sure that we are putting on the market enough vehicles, and we are matching that with the necessary infrastructure.
With a very important feature, this infrastructure has to have to ensure seamless cross border connectivity. We know what happened some of the challenges and issues in the electric charging points in terms of cross border connectivity. So that's an important one. And Mr. Confaim mentioned the 10 trans European networks, both in transport and energy infrastructures for hydrogen are very important parts there.
One important point also that we have to work upon is on standardization precisely, among other things, on the interoperability of the hydrogen refueling
stations. Thank you, Clara Obviously, a lot of initiatives going on. And once again, a reflection from me, as I made earlier, when you hear some of the statistics, I think you talked about 1,000,000 charging points by 2025. We saw talked about the volume of trucks and the speed of production. This is really with us In the here and now, but great to see the commission supporting with a number of these initiatives.
One other question for you, if I can go back to you, Clara de la Torre. When it comes to carbon pricing, the EU, I guess, is a combination of instruments. What Does it favor you have emission trading systems for transport sector, CO2 based tolls or taxes? How do you see the kind of incentives, I guess, that can be used to drive this?
As you say, in this in all these complex matters, we have we need a policy mix. And Mr. Galfa mentioned highly so because that's at the center of this policy mix is the CO2 standards for new heavy duty vehicles. So that we are working on that in the revision. Then we needed to, of course, to add to that economic incentives and specific regulatory measures.
But as you say very rightly, the carbon pricing is an important element of the equation. We know that the ETS has been is at the core of our climate policy. It's been efficient in reducing emissions. And it has a great advantage, which is gives a very good price signal very good, it depends on the sector, gives a price signal. And also because being a capping system, we ensure that the overall emissions diminish.
So That's we are looking at whether in this big systemic change that Mr. Campan was referring to for our packaging in June, We'll be proposing we are still analyzing whether how and whether and how we propose a system of carbon pricing for the road transport. And let us not forget that the carbon pricing, as I say, is a signal. It caps the emissions and it also provides revenues to fund the deployment of clean technologies As we do with the innovation fund, where we get some of the revenues of the auctioning of the ETSLLOSs are used for funding clean technologies. And the taxonomy, the taxonomy that Mr.
Caffamo mentioned is a very important one. In the recent decisions, the only 0 and low emission trucks will be considered as contributing to sustainability as from 2022. And then from 2026, only 0 emission vehicles will be considered as green investments.
Thank you very much, Clara de la Torre. Maybe I can come back to you, Martin. You can
call Clara. It's easier.
Clara. Okay. Thank you, Clara. Less formal. Thank you.
Martin Doum, and I will call you Martin Doum because there's too many Martins that I don't want to get confused. But if I can come to you for what Clara said there, she talked about bringing in CO2 standards for heavy duty vehicles using the carbon pricing system as one of the instruments and of course generating perhaps Revenue to fund future technologies. Is this the kind of language you'd like to hear from the commission when it comes to driving this?
Yes, absolutely, yes, because when you look at trucking, there is one special thing about it. It takes about 4 years to bring from an idea to get serious production on trucks. Then our customers buying those trucks run them for 10 years. So you talk already a timeframe of 14 years and nobody buys a truck by the way because he wants to drive a truck, because he has to, because he wants to make money with us. It has to fulfill a duty.
And so a long term stable framework is absolutely essential for our customers. It's essential for the used truck pricing. It's essential for the entire values chain that is. And that means you have to do investment decisions, not just on the level of us, the OEMs, the manufacturers of truck. It's more important the investment decision our must do and this is the most important investment they do normally during the course of the year.
They need a stable, reliable political framework for many years to come, another change every other 2 years or so. So very important is have that long term vision, that long term stable framework. But everything I've heard so far from both the commission and the parliament and from Johan Raghuram Supporting the whole with scientific research, I would say it goes in the same direction. We will get very soon a pretty stable framework.
Thanks very much, Martin Dam. And Johan, coming to you once again on the science side, a couple of questions. Interesting, you mentioned earlier, of course, this isn't purely about Europe. You talked about the G3, China moving forward, North America, United States moving forward. And where is Europe in this journey when it comes to driving?
We're all driving to the same goal, I guess, but where is Europe in the journey?
Europe is very well positioned for this journey. I mean, as I was a bit jokingly saying that up until a week ago, Europe Had the world's most ambitious science aligned climate policy, Biden administration has kind of come up at in par, I would say, but still Europe is in the lead, thanks to the fact that we have the most mature package of regulations, policies and targets and I would like to connect this to Martin Down's earlier Quite interesting analogy with lightening trucks with chicken because I think one shouldn't underestimate The pioneering role of being at the lead and Europe is truly across sectors in a possibility of being a lead position to show the benefits of an accelerated transition towards 0 Carbon Solutions which can spill over into the fact that now we have imagine it's today over 100 countries in the world that have adopted 0 carbon targets. We have 195 countries, so we're over 50% of countries, the 3 largest economies, in fact the 4 largest economies because Japan has also just adopted a 0 carbon target by 2,050. If the big truck manufacturers in Europe show that this makes sense that we can actually as Martin down points out, nobody buys a truck because you love trucking, you do it because it's a duty, it has to make economic sense.
If Europe can show that this worked across different sectors from textile industry to retail industry to the consumer goods industry that will of course provide a spillover effect across different economies. I'd like to just put one little warning flag here which connects Clara's and Pascal's really important points. Martin Lundstedt earlier kind of rightly made the conclusion that You know, hydrogen will go to scale as a fuel cell the moment when the technology is so efficient that we come down at economic parity with fossil fuel use something around US3 dollars, US4 dollars per kilo hydrogen. That's correct. But remember that there's another way of succeeding as well, which is to raise the cost of doing wrong, which is exactly Clara's point about carbon pricing and Europe is best in the world on this to set a price on carbon.
We are long far away from being good enough because scientifically we know that we have today a social cost of Carbon over €100 per tonne of carbon dioxide and the ETS is at €37 today and the ETS, as Clara Reminds us not include the transport sector, it must include the transport sector. But can you imagine the day when Europe can present to the world that we're internalizing a price on carbon also on fuels which will penalize fossil fuels overnight which of course will make innovations on synthetic fuels and hydrogen, electricity competitive immediately. Is this wrong? Of course, it's not because you don't want to have a market failure of destroying the climate by having a product that is thereby subsidized by the planet. So we have to correct this and Europe is at the lead for that.
Thank you very much, Johan. Good to see your big three trading blocks and Europe pushing forward together with, of course, China and North America. One other question for you. I think we can see one of the successes is going to be collaboration, pan European collaboration, industry collaboration. Think the Potsdam Institute itself is actually collaborating with ASEA, the transport manufacturers of Europe.
Is that the kind of Thing we need to bring together more and does that help drive the journey?
Definitely, we are as scientists standing on the mountain of evidence we have. That evidence as we all know is In GRIM, we have entered the decisive decade we now need to accelerate and transform cut global emissions by half in only 9 years' time. So we have now developed a new methodology which we call Keystone Actor Science Business Dialogues which means to identify The Keystone players in different sectors and in the heavy truck sector, Europe is a key player and in Europe, you have 6 big keystone actors, Daimler and Volvo are with us today, but we also have Scania, we have MAN, we have Iveco and these are together forming quite a unique constellation of truck and heavy vehicle, commercial vehicle manufacturers and we have invited the CEOs for all these truck manufacturers to the Potsdam Institute and we've held behind closed doors, Chatham House Type Science Business Dialogues, which has come out with a public statement of an end for internal combustion engine driven trucks by 2,040 and this transition that Martin Daum and Martin Luz and I've been sharing here. So this is a methodology of trying to accelerate the pace of change with the hypothesis that if these Keystone actors can show that this makes sense that that will spill over into the logic across the whole world market.
We're doing this with the fish industry, we're doing it with the retail industry and food. So it's a way of accelerating and deepening the science business dialogue.
That's super interesting, Johan, and great to see that collaboration between that mountain of science you talked about and bringing it into the industry, bringing it into the regulators. I really would like to go on a lot more because there's so much more to say. Unfortunately, we're coming to the end of the panel discussion. What I'd like to do before we end that is, of course, thank the very generous time being given to our panelists. So thank you, Pascal Confin.
Thank you, Clara. I'll just call you Clara. And thank you, Johan, as well. Thank you all for joining us today. Martin Lundstedt and Martin Down, we've come to the end, but maybe just a reflection on what we've heard.
I can ask You first, Martin Daum. We heard a lot from policymakers there. I'm sure in your own mind, you've got a lot of feelings and ideas of what policymakers can bring. If you had to give your most important message to the policymakers Regarding fuel cells and hydrogen, what would it be in very short? I
mean, first of all, I see a lot of agreement here from all different sources. And I experienced that when we had the discussion with Johan and his team. And it was not a defense thing. It was a collaborative thing. And we Share the same vision of the future, and we share the challenges and the challenges bring to industry to our customers as well and the common goal to find solution.
But important it is that we are not playing defense on either side. We play offense together for a CO2 neutral future where we All have the deep conviction that fuel cells, NH2, will play an important and central role in the transport sector. At one point of time, we have to trade energy across the globe, across time and distance, and that cannot be oil, coal or natural gas. That has to be a green agent, and that green agent perfectly well suited for is green hydrogen. It's a historic opportunity for Europe, its industry and its politics and its economies and its societies to lead in a key technology and create with that leadership jobs and wealth.
So it's a clear win win situation for all players involved. And thanks for the support I see and feel and hear from our panelists as well.
Great support for regulators once again and policymakers, etcetera. Martin Lundstedt, a final question for you before we go to the Q and A. We've heard a lot there from the expectations on regulators. The industry is doing a lot. So we've heard about CellCentric, etcetera.
But my question to you is what more can the industry itself do to drive the change in this regard?
No, obviously, 1st and foremost, to do our part when it comes to providing our pieces of this value chain to make it fossil free and sustainable to all the targets that we have talked about and really to hand over a planet in good shape to coming generations. And when we talk about the industry, it is so important to understand that we have our share and we really need to do that on the product services around the trucks, the commercial vehicles, the excavators, what have you, but also that we are building In accordance to what all panelists have said, the strong alliances also with all parts of the value chain now when it comes to energy generation, when it comes to the infrastructure to really get the outcome and have a good policy and regulatory alignment around incentivizing how we are really cooperating. Both Daimler and ourselves are also, for example, joining the H2 accelerate alliance with utility and energy companies as one initiative. The clean hydrogen for Europe is another very good one. So we really drive it.
And if you think about it, Europe has been successful in driving cost efficiencies in the competition, so to speak, regulatory environment. But the cost for having a non functioning planet must come in. And what we have discussed today is sustainability efficiencies by cooperating. I think that is great and makes me super energized.
Still lots to do. And now I hope you'll all stay and join us For the Q and A, I remember at the beginning of the broadcast asking Martin Lundstedt a question about hydrogen is something that's always seen in the future. It's The gold at the end of the rainbow, but really having listened to the last hour, it's very clear it's here and now today. And As Martin Down just said, a historic opportunity for Europe. So I'm sure that panel discussion has stimulated a lot of questions.
So let's jump back into the Q and A and see what questions there are. And this is for could be for all of you. Calara, I'm going to ask you the first question and coming back to what you said earlier. Great, 1,000,000 charging points by 2025. But what about high power charging for commercial vehicle goals?
Absolutely. This is a challenge in terms of the deployment of this point, but also in terms of technology, it has advanced a lot, but the fast charging is absolutely It's very important also for the acceptance of the technology so that we don't have the excuse of having car hours, the vehicle charging. So absolutely, part of this charging point at least, I would not be able to tell you proportion, but part of them have to be fast chargers. And we have to deploy the develop the technology further because we have some, but still there are things that need to be
Thank you very much, Clara. And we've talked a lot, To be honest, about infrastructure. But a question for Martin Down. Does CellCentric itself plan to build infrastructure on its own? And if yes, how high will the corresponding investments be on that?
I mean, for the moment, the answer is a clear no. And if you look at the infrastructure, it's a production of green hydrogen or you can say it starts with the production of green energy, then it starts with the production of green energy in electrolyzer plants, Then it's the transport of that green hydrogen and then the retail infrastructure, all for I think There are companies around the globe that are far better equipped that will be today's oil companies who are all Very well versed in long term multibillion investments, and they are going and I know through the talks we have with them, whether BP or Shell, they all want to change to a clean zero emission free society, and that's I would say that's fair to have. And then we talk on top of that these companies who already have experience with gases like Erlichid or Linde, and they have experiences we don't have. So there's I think there's no need for Selsangpic to invest in that area, we have to make sure that we have enough chickens on the road, call trucks or lorries, and To have the demand for that H2 and then I believe in free market, if we have enough demand, then we will have the supply itself.
Great. So not at the moment. And there are a number of players out there willing to make those investments in infrastructure. And now we have a question for Johan. According to recent research, it is predicted that hydrogen will make up 12% of the energy mix in the future with 66% of that share being green hydrogen.
What are the challenges And which markets globally and you've talked today a lot about different markets, which markets globally are looking promising to achieve this growth?
Yes, but to start with one should recognize how incredibly difficult it is to project these exponential S curves of innovation and change. We have been adamantly poor at Just projecting photovoltaics and wind developments which have been doubling every 5th year for the last 15 years and we've always underestimated the pace of change. So I think there's a high likelihood that we also here are underestimating the pace of production at that upstream point of electrolysis of green hydrogen. But that said, even if we were talking about 12%, which is a very significant jump from the current quite Not only very low volume but it's predominantly used in chemical refining, iron, steel and industrial processes. We're not using Hydrogen for mobility currently at any scale anywhere in the world.
But what we see of course is that European Union, Advanced Industrial Economies, the United States, China, Japan are very interesting markets for being that kind of front running set of chickens that can set the pace for this development. And I really emphasize that Even though the targets are difficult to set, the key now is to set things in motion to start getting the ball rolling and to roll it so decisively that there's no turning back. And if we can accomplish that from a European side, I think this will again spill over very rapidly actually into different markets and of course the most mature developed industrial markets will very likely be the first ones when it comes to hydrogen for heavy truck transport. And again, companies like Daimler and Volvo are operating here already.
So developed industrial markets, absolutely Japan, United States. And as you see, Europe. And I think when you mentioned the ball get the ball rolling, I definitely get the feeling from today's discussion, the ball is well and truly rolling. We have another question, and I think this, of course, is a big question for any commercial organization or industry organization, and it's about The cost for customers. So I'm going to ask Martin Lundstedt first.
With a relatively high cost for customers investing in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, How big is the market interest in reality? And what do your customers say? And I know there's been a lot of volumes and things talked about today. But what's the news on the street when you talk to customers?
1st and foremost, what we see, which is extremely positive, is that the is that the interest among our customers, but also to a very large extent customers' customers, the transport buyers, is increasing rapidly when it comes to really doing their part of, so to speak, the climate change a very important piece of their puzzle when it comes to the total, so to speak, Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3 emission levels. And thereby, it's a good starting point. The initiative we are doing today, talking together, showing direction, self Centric being one of it with 2 of the biggest players joining forces for sustainability efficiencies, inviting other actors in the industrial value chain, But also, of course, having the great support that we've heard today from regulatory and policymakers and really the political landscape It's also important to what Martin Down said about the long term investment, that they need to rely on the fact that They are B2B. They are having production equipment that need to be under it is. But there are very positive elements.
We are scaling it. We'll take down the product cost on the fuel cell. We are doing it also on the installations on the track and there we are competing. We have been talking about the energy transition that Johan just mentioned and also prices coming down, further investment in solar and winds and further investment in infrastructure. We know that there are certain sectors that early on are ready to pay a green premium, But we also hear about different type of incentives to support this S curve, may it be on the carbon tax side.
I fully adhere to what Johan, Lochstorm and all said, Klara and Pascal and Martindale, I think we are all in agreement that really directed now to support the transition. And of course, customers and customers' customers want to be part of this. We all want to be part of handing over a planet in good shape.
Thank you, Martin. Yes, sorry, Martin Dan. Please continue.
And potentially, I would like to add something because It's for me a really very important topic which comes up in a lot of discussions I have with press or politicians. For me, there are 2 very essential truths about when we talk about the cost position. First of all, An electric truck, whether this battery or this fuel cell, will always be more expensive than a current truck with a diesel engine. Why? Because we invested at the entire globe 120 years in that technology and it's ultra efficient.
And may I talk more expensive than I talk for the next 10 years? It could be that in 20 years, we come up with some really great new inventions that will make it cheaper. But for the start, a 0 emission truck will be more expensive than a carbon combustion engine truck. That's one thing. But this is minor compared with the biggest, let's say, variable in the whole thing.
That is the price of fuel. That's the price of Electric Energy, including any infrastructure investment, that's the price of green H2, which will always include all the investment into the production of that clean H2, and it will be the price development of diesel. Now you can say the worst would be because the demand of diesel is going backwards because 50% of the people are driving 0 emission tugs. And then you have the feeling what you have a year ago in the Q2 of 2020 when COVID hit And we were going into lockdown, and suddenly the price for diesel plummets down, and it's cut it's go down 20%, 30%, 40%, it makes it so much more efficient to run a diesel truck. And on the other side, you have additional infrastructure charges on top of an already high green hydrogen or green energy price, then that tipping, that cost parity is going further away.
So it's a price for the energy source and it's the price of the truck. The one will be slightly higher, not astronomically higher. The other one will be the decisive
And I guess Just
as briefly, Hameen?
Yes, absolutely, Juan.
Because Martin Down is so right, We have to recognize that our biggest challenge is that it's not acceptable that 0 carbon sustainable Energy providers for mobility are penalized because they're slightly more expensive than the climate damaging fossil fuel systems. So we have to bite the bullet and accept that transport will be more expensive and that we need to correct the market failure by increasing the cost for the systems that are destroying the climate system, making Martin Daum's point competitive. Now this will change also behavior and this is something that we have to accept that there will be We're kind of passing the point where our only target is to make things more efficient and cheaper. There is also a question about the stewardship of the planet. So I think we have to start looking at these deeper relationships between transport and cost.
Thank you, Johan. Very maybe a quick comment on this, Martin Lundstedt. I mean, you talked obviously about The different areas where hydrogen is more useful than electric vehicles long haul as opposed to short haul. Do we see hydrogen fuel cells in the future coming into commercial vehicles with a shorter haul length?
But I think as we have discussed today, I mean, there are a lot of different elements as part of that equation. I mean, how different regions because we have a global challenge, it's not only a European challenge, or investing not only in, so to speak, the technology of the vehicles and the products and services around that. It's also about what are the conditions for generation of green energy, maybe electricity and then transformed into hydrogen, how does the infrastructure look like. But generally speaking, Of course, battery electric vehicles are better suited for the shorter distances, the lighter loads and fuel cells. And then again, the total mix With acceleration of electricity or fossil free society, you need to have the right mix in order to cope with all sectors.
We are not only talking about heavy transport and commercial transport, but also mobility transport, we are talking about all the other industrial sectors. So We will see a lot of different combination, and that's the reason why the modularity is so important as we have discussed. But the Incentives and the direction needs to be the same regardless if we're talking about fuel cell or battery electric.
Thank you, Martin. Now we're coming to the end of the Q and A. We're going to have one more question, but I do know that Pascal Confin has to leave. So I really would like before you do that, Pascal, To warmly thank you for participating and inputting to this panel discussion. Super appreciated.
Yes, absolutely. Thank you, Sebastiano.
So I'm sorry, I have to leave as well.
Laura, and I will thank you as well. Much appreciated.
Thank you, Jafar.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. All the best.
Thank you. So we quickly do one more question. What about the expansion of the hydrogen infrastructure in non EU countries in Europe? Are there any discussions or collaborations Going on there, I wonder who they could be referring to. Martin, listen.
I can answer that. I can answer it easily. What's Economically right and what scientifically correct is globally correct. Science and Economics are not a privilege of just one country. So for me, non EU countries, first of all, there is Switzerland and Norway and associated countries, which are definitely following that lead.
And so I see it at the end, it's a pan European one. But for me, it's actually more than just Europe, it's a global one. For me, the U. S. Will follow suit.
And Volvo and Daimler, both are pretty very importantly positioned in the United States to do whatever if the United States changed to hydrogen. I know it from our business group in Japan, Fuso, that we are already working with the Japanese government on a hydrogen infrastructure, and China will follow suit. So for me, That is definitely a global movement and not just limited to the 20 something European countries.
Thank you, Martin. And with that, we bring a close to the Q and A. Thanks for all the questions. And once again, thanks to The panelists for their contributions. Before we wrap up, I would like to ask one final question 2 our 2 CEOs today.
The first one from you, Martin, Lunstead. We got a lot of input in many different perspectives in transport. In a nutshell, what's your main takeaway from today?
Of course, the obvious answer is collaboration is key In different forms, I mean, the whole idea of creating Cell Centric is worked around collaboration, both when it comes to the fuel cell stack development, deployment, scaling up. But even more importantly, And then I know I talk both for Matt and Daum and Daimler and Volvo and myself, is the clear sign that we believe in this. We want to move ahead together. We want all the different parts of the value chain to understand that 2 big players in the heavy transport sectors believe in this, and that will be a clear sign to customers and customers' customers downstream, but also upstreams in the value chain to also invest together. And also what we have heard fantastically well by science and policymakers aligning on how we are deploying that in big scale.
And I have to say, I mean, Paris, Green Deal, coming generations, I think we have taken a big step together today by being both strategic and concrete, highly energized, I have to say.
Great. And me as well. Absolutely, alignment is clearly something that we've seen today. Thank you, Martin Lundstedt. Martin Lundstedt, the same question to you, your main takeaway and then maybe also some closing remarks before we end today's session.
I mean, first of all, thank you to everyone participating. Thanks for the huge audience we had, the huge interest we had. This is not self understanding. So I think it's one of the advantages of the digital format that you can really reach a huge audience and can make a difference. So thanks for everyone participating on either side of the screen.
My takeaway is driving hydrogen future is for sure a huge challenge. But on the other side, driving a hydrogen future is a huge opportunity. And we heard it many times today, collaboration is key to make it happen. Collaboration and we experienced that, Martin Lundstedt and myself, Collaborating Daimler and Volvo Group helps us to gain the scales to get to a great cost position, which is important for our customers. But on the other side, it's giving a clear direction in which direction the industry is going and then accelerate the collaboration from all other players, whether it be from the energy side or the politics side like we have seen today.
So thanks a lot All the commitments from the European Commissions and from the support we have from that side. I'm so glad about that huge commitment from everyone participating today. You can be sure I've written it down, and I will remind everyone, and as you will remind me and Martin Lundstedt, what we had promised to you. Let's drive together this hydrogen future. Thank you.
Thank you, Martin Daum. Thank you, Martin Lundstedt.
Yes. Thank you to everyone watching and participating. It has been just great.
And collaboration has been very much in evidence today. Also thank you, of course, to our panelists for their input to the Q and A once again. And then finally, thank you to all of you who have joined us to listen to this event. I hope it's been interesting. I hope it's been stimulating.
I hope it's been motivating. Sometimes in a tough world, we need some motivation. It's certainly not the end of something.