Greetings, and welcome to this presentation of our Q1 results. As always, we have our CEO, Morten Wierod, and now for the first time, we meet our new CFO, Christian Nilsson. Christian, you may be new in this setting, but you've been with ABB for about nine years as CFO of Electrification. By no means a newbie to ABB in that matter. Great to have you here at the quarterly desk.
Great to be here.
I am Ann-Sofie Nordh . I'm Head of Investor Relations. Morten and Christian will talk you through the results presentation as per usual, and then we open up for Q&A. Without further ado, I hand over to you, Morten, to kick off the presentation.
Thanks, Ann-Sofie. It was good to see the quarter develop pretty much according to plan. This despite the escalated situation in the Middle East. Our priority has been to support our employees directly impacted by the conflict and do our best to keep our colleagues safe. When it comes to the business and our own operations, it has continued pretty much as normal. Overall, we have so far not seen a material change in general customer behavior. I would say that our Q1 order intake is evidence of that, as we, for the first time, reached orders of more than $11 billion. We improved across all P&L headlines, we had record cash flow for a Q1 , and ROCE was at a standout 27%, and about 25% without the real estate gain. I'm pleased with the quarter. In February, we published the 2025 sustainability report.
This shows a steady progress towards our 2030 targets. One example is us reaching nearly 23% of women in senior leadership roles. We're closing in on our 25% target, and we have made strong progress from the 14% level five years ago. Looking at our Scope 1 and 2 emissions, we have now virtually reached our 80% reduction target. Another KPI is our waste to landfill, which we have reduced to 5.3% from 8.4% in 2019. Perhaps above all, it is very good to see that our employee engagement score keeps going up every year. For 2025, we reached a score of 80. This is up from 75 when we started the ABB Way journey back in 2020. We always strive to improve, and this is an important tool for us to capture focus areas to prioritize. The employees are our most important asset.
I am sure we will get to the topic of capital allocation at some point today. Outside of investing for organic growth, we distribute $2.1 billion in dividend. This corresponds to about 1.3% in dividend yield based on recent share price. In early February, we launched an annual buyback program of up to $2 billion. If fully utilized, this is about 1.2% of current market cap. I've already messaged that we want to allocate more capital to acquisitions. Cash flow should continue to be strong. With net debt to EBITDA of 0.3, we have plenty of headroom. Theoretically, we can make rather sizable deals. Like I've said before, base case is small to mid-size bolt-ons, and then we aim to add somewhat bigger deals on top.
Big to me would be along the lines of $4 billion we spent on Thomas & Betts and Baldor a few years ago. It would be great if we could get some deals up to that size. Key for us is the long-term value creation. I would rather make no deals than bad deals, and I have told the teams to do the right thing and step away if multiple becomes too demanding. The teams are active, and I'm feeling hopeful that we will deliver also when it comes to M&A. Another proof point of us spending money in the right places is the automation team's launch of its Automation Extended program. This is a strategic evolution of our DCS systems, where we have the world's largest installed base.
These systems are at the heart of industrial operations, but the customer's dilemma is that their control system must evolve to support digital and AI capabilities. They don't want to disrupt operations in a process plant running 24/7. Automation Extended is our way to help customers solve this problem. To do this, at the customer site, we create an ecosystem which includes two distinct yet securely interconnected environments, one being the core environment that controls critical processes. The other is the digital environment, which enables advanced applications, intelligence, and real-time analytics. The secret sauce is that we have connected these two environments with external clouds through a unified management and maintenance service systems. Combined, this enables the customer to modernize without touching or disrupting the critical part of operations. In my view, we are uniquely positioned to offer this type of solution. Now turning to Q1 orders.
The chart shows the record high bar of $11.3 billion. On a comparable basis, this is up as much as 24%, and it is very good that the strong development is broad across all three business areas. At 44%, I think it's fair to say that the orders surged in Electrification. On top of this strong comparable growth, our total order intake was also supported by a material FX effect of 7% and 6% on revenues, mainly due to the strengthening of the euro against the U.S. dollar. Let's focus on the business and dissect the market a bit. The short version is that we see persistently high demand across most of the main customer segments. On the positive side, data centers clearly stands out. Other segments to mention would be a strong utilities market with investment in grid build out, stability, and reliability.
Customers are also continuing to spend on upgrades of electrical infrastructure for land-based transport. Linked to transport, we still see good market conditions in the marine and rail markets. The same goes for commercial buildings with a related HVAC market. Looking at the developments through the quarter, the overall demand remained strong throughout. For us, the Middle East conflict has not changed the overall demand picture so far. If we zoom in on the Middle East region specifically, there is no pattern of a weak March for neither Electrification nor Motion. It was only in Automation where a weaker March was noted, and this only relates to the Middle East region, where Automation has an energy-linked customer base. For the group, the Middle East represents just below 5% of revenues, and Automation is about 1/3 of this exposure.
Looking instead at the Gulf states as an isolated group, this is about 3.5% of sales. Turning to revenue of $8.7 billion, the usual pattern of sequentially lower Q1 is visible. Year-on-year, the comparable growth of 11% is even a bit better than we expected. The beat is linked to the stronger deliveries in both Electrification and Automation. Despite the backdrop of high geopolitical tension, there was no change in customers' willingness to receive shipments. On the flip side, there was also no indication that demand was artificially boosted by customers stockpiling. Revenue increased in both the project and short cycle businesses, and higher volumes was the biggest contributor to the strong organic growth of 11%. The teams are focusing hard on price management. It is key to balance the trust and long-term relationships with customers, while at the same time defending our profitability.
The price components was close to 1% in the quarter. As a net total, we delivered another positive book-to-bill, now at 1.29. The backlog is at the record level of $27.5 billion, up 22%, and in my view, we performed well in a strong market. I mentioned that orders increased across the business areas. The same goes for the different geographies. All three regions were up by double digits, led by the Americas at 48%, like-for-like. Looking specifically at the U.S., orders increased by 67%. This high number includes some large bookings, but also base orders were very strong and improved by about 30%. Europe was up by 13%, with a stable to positive development in all our top five countries. EMEA improved by 10%, supported by the three largest countries in the region. Let's turn to earnings, and this chart also shows a record quarter.
We delivered operational EBITA of just over $2 billion, with a margin of 23.5%. This total was, of course, supported by the capital gain of $377 million from the real estate sale. When disregarding these gains in both this and prior year, the margin was up by 70 basis points. 50 of this was achieved through stronger business performance, and the remaining 20 was the net impact from FX and portfolio changes. I want to talk through the gross margin of 39.4%. This is a decline of as much as 290 basis points from last year. The bigger part of the drop, about 2/3, is due to unrealized FX and commodity hedges. But there were also operational impacts from portfolio changes in Motion with the Gamesa deal now impacting the full quarter. We have a bit of a price-cost gap.
I'm sure you remember that in our Q4 presentation, we talked about the time lag between price adjustment and realized P&L effect. We highlighted it specifically for Electrification, and we see it in the numbers for Q1. We also have a negative mix effect in both Motion and automation, a consequence of higher deliveries from the backlog-driven project business. In fairness, 39.4% gross margin is still a very decent level, but I never like to go backwards, even if it's mainly due to the unrealized FX and commodity hedges. On a positive note, we improved operational EBITDA margin through stringent SG&A cost management. These costs declined to 19.2% of revenues from 20.8% last year. All in all, operational EBITDA increased by 37%, 28% in local currencies, and margin was up by 320 basis points, out of which 50 is real business-driven increase.
Q1 was a challenging quarter with plenty of external volatility, and in my view, the team has done a very good job managing all of it, and I'm pleased with our results. With that, I hand it over to you, Christian.
Thanks, Morten. Let's now take a look at what happened in the different business areas, starting with Electrification. In Morten use the term surging orders. Seems a fair comment considering the comparable growth of 44%. Add to that 7% from FX, and we arrive at a new record order level of $6.6 billion. You see it in the chart to left on this slide. It is clear the Electrification market remains very strong. The good thing is that there's strength across the customer segments. In fact, all main segments increased at a double-digit rate. Looking at data centers, it was up triple digits. For this segment, we have an order CAGR of close to 35% in 2019 to 2025. The data center orders were very strong in both Q4 and in Q1. Pipeline looks good, and we expect this year to be another strong year.
Another segment I want to mention is utilities. Investment in the efficient, smart, and reliable grid are needed to make power available and accessible. We see this happening particularly in the U.S. The biggest segment in Electrification is buildings, at about 30% of revenues. 2/3 of that goes to commercial segment. This market continues to be strong. The residential market, on the other hand, remains generally muted. We, however, performed well in the quarter and actually had growth also in the residential segment. Now turning to revenues, we outperformed our own expectations. Short cycle business came through stronger. This resulted in comparable revenue growth of 15% and revenues of $4.6 billion. The chart shows the usual sequential pattern of Q1 being slightly lower than Q4, and then growing sequentially into the Q2 . We expect this pattern to be repeated also this year.
Higher volumes drove majority of the comparable growth, and price added about 1%. The team is working on price management, but like we highlighted coming into the quarter, we had a price-cost gap. Pricing did not quite fully offset higher costs for commodities and tariffs. We expect that this will gradually improve as we progress through the year. On the back of operational leverage and higher volumes, as well as good SG&A cost control, Electrification increased operational EBITDA by 25% to $1.1 billion. This reflects an improvement of 17% in constant currency. Margins reached 24% and was up 80 basis points from last year. All in all, the team did a good job delivering record orders, record earnings, and a record Q1 margin and a strong cash flow. For the Q2 year-on-year, we expect comparable revenue growth in the mid-teens range, and operational EBITDA margin to improve.
Now let's turn to Motion, which also delivered a record order quarter. 9% comparable growth, plus 3% acquired growth, and another 6% from FX. This resulted in total orders of $2.5 billion. The segment pattern was very similar to recent quarters. We had positive momentum in areas like food and beverage and HVAC for commercial buildings. Similar to Electrification, customers continued to invest in grid stabilization to secure power availability. On the softer side, there are the process industries related segments like chemicals, cement, and mining. Orders in rail declined in the quarter, but I would say this is more due to timing, as we continue to see this as a strong area for us. Revenues of $2.1 billion had multiple drivers, led by comparable growth of 7%. Portfolio changes added 3%, and this is the Gamesa acquisition, which is now fully incorporated in the results for the full quarter.
There's also material effects of 6%. All in all, book-to-bill was positive at 1.19, and backlog increased to $6.6 billion. Based on Q1 revenues, Motion has a full three-quarters of revenue in the backlog. That's good top-line support for this and next year. Operational EBITDA was up by 11%, but the margin dropped by 110 basis points to 18.5%. There's several items to keep in mind. While the Gamesa deal comes with revenues of just over $60 million for the quarter, it made a small loss. This is according to expectations for the deal, but right now the dilution of margins is significant at 70 basis points, and this will be dilutive for 2026 as a whole. Our plans allows for a couple of years to bring profitability to double digit as we embed the offering in our broad leading market reach.
The second point to mention is High Power Division, where we had some operational inefficiencies. This diluted the margin by about 15 basis points. The team is on it, and we expect this to be resolved during the H2 of the year. Lastly, in the quarter, we had an adverse mix from higher share of revenues from the backlog-driven project business. For the Q2 , we expect comparable revenue growth in the mid to high single-digit range, and we expect operational EBITDA margins to decline year- on- year on reasons we just mentioned for Q1. Now let's turn to Automation, where comparable orders increased by 5%. Morten mentioned earlier that this is where some market disruptions in the Middle East region was noted towards the end of the quarter. Energy plants have been targeted for attacks, and these are Automation customers.
So far, any change in demand patterns is contained to the Middle East region, which is less than 6% of Automation's revenues. From a segment perspective, both marine and ports continued their strong trend. Oil and gas was down on a challenging comparable. On a higher level, this market remains solid, but with added uncertainty I just mentioned. Customers in the nuclear segments continue to be active, and mining orders actually increased in the quarter, although in general, this market remains a bit on the muted side for us. Orders in the discrete market, meaning machine automation, were up strongly on a comparable, which is still at a fairly low level. We see the general market for machine builders still being fairly cautious. Continued soft environments are still noted for chemicals and pulp and paper. Revenues were stronger than expected also in automation.
On a comparable basis, we're up by 10%, with a full 8% in additional support from FX. In total, revenues amounted to $2.1 billion. These higher revenues came with an adverse mix compared to last year, meaning we had higher share stemming from backlog-driven project business. This hampered the gross margin, but the team more than offset this with stringent cost control in, for example, SG&A. As a net total, the operational EBITDA margin improved 50 basis points to 14.7%. Making the same reflection on revenue coverage as for Motion, the automation order backlog now sits at $10.4 billion. This covers nearly five quarters of revenue using this Q1 as a base. Looking into the Q2 , we expect automation's comparable revenue to improve in the mid-single-digit range. Operational EBITDA should improve year-on-year. Now, let's move to cash, which was another highlight in the quarter.
The strong outcome was a result of improved operational cash flow in combination with a larger release on trade net working capital year- on- year. Despite higher paid tax and pressure from discontinued operations, we virtually doubled the free cash flow from last year to $1.3 billion. This includes a contribution of about $425 million from the real estate sale. This makes it a good and improved delivery from the business, so well done to the team. We had a strong start to the year, and we feel confident in our business performance, so we aim to slightly improve the full-year free cash flow from last year's $4.6 billion. This will be supported by higher cash flow in the business and a higher real estate impact. We have some anticipated offsets in the bridge.
First, in continuing operations, we assume some headwinds from growth-related buildup of net working capital. We have offsets in the discontinued operation linked to the robotics divestment. This includes $300 million of tax cash impact from closing the deal. That's leaving about $100 million for 2027. We also have $100 million more in CapEx for the building of the robotics hub in Sweden. All in all, we should be able to slightly improve free cash flow in 2026. With that, Morten, I hand it back to you.
Thanks, Christian. Now let's finish off with the outlook. We raise our ambitions for the year, both for top line and margin. It may seem bold to do it now when we don't really know the full impacts from the Middle East conflict, and admittedly, the risk for the global economic trading environment has escalated. We base our outlook on what we see and know now, and make a judgment call on that. If there are major changes or disruptions outside of this, we will adjust to that new reality. We have a backlog of $27.5 billion. Markets were overall strong in Q1, and so far, our customer interactions give us confidence for the year. For 2026, we still expect a positive book-to-bill, but we raise our guidance for revenues.
We now expect comparable revenue growth to be in the high single-digit to low double-digit range, and the operational EBITDA margin should improve year-on-year, even when excluding the real estate gain in the Q1 of 2026. This is up from previous guidance of slightly improve. For the Q2 , we are up against a challenging comparable order intake, as last year we booked the $600 million order in automation. That said, we expect a positive book-to-bill. Comparable revenue growth should be in the high single-digit to low double-digit range, and the operational EBITDA margin should improve year-on-year. Now, Ann-Sofie, let's open up for questions.
Yes, let's do it. As a quick reminder, for those of you who have dialed in on the phone, please press star 40 to register to ask a question. Also, please remember to mute the webcast as your line is opened. Also, limited to one question, please. That way, we will allow for as many of you as possible to be heard. You can also put questions through the online tool on the webcast, and I will voice those questions over from here. With that said, let's open up for the first questions, and we do so with Phil Buller from JP Morgan. Phil? You there?
I'm here. Hi, good morning. Thank you for the question. I'd like to dig a little bit deeper on the Electrification performance, please. Do you believe that there is market share gain happening here? This surge in demand, is it company specific, or is this
An end market topic. Can you talk about the book-to-bill excluding data center? Because you talk about this broadening out of growth, but what's the data point behind that, please, in terms of the book-to-bill? And on the growth that we're seeing in those orders, is it fair to assume that pricing is more than the 1% that's running through the P&L, please? Thanks.
That's a long one question. Let's see how we go.
Yeah, I may start here. If we are gaining market share or not, we will all know more about that a few weeks from now. Our focus out in the market and when we look at the customer feedback, I think we are growing probably a bit more than the market these days. That would be more of a general statement on that front. We also see the book-to-bill in Electrification very strong. I think there, also without the data center we're talking about in Electrification, the triple-digit growth, while we're looking at the non-data center business, we're talking about double-digit growth, also there. I think that's important to note, it goes for Electrification, but it goes for the whole company.
90% of ABB is not data center, and that is growing very strongly, but then you put the data center growth on top, that is giving the very strong performance of the Q1 . For price, we see about 1% in the Q1 . There is a bit of catch-up, as we said earlier as well, because we have seen raw material pricing coming up, with higher volatility and bigger increases than. There was a bit of delay. We are confident by the year-end, we will catch up also on that front that you have a full compensation between cost increases and the price point.
When I talk about the 1%, that is for the whole company, but it is also relevant for Electrification. We do see more, as expected, of price increase in Americas and less in Asia due to a bit of, like China as one example. Also we see a slight positive trend also on price in China. That's a bit on how we see the Electrification part.
Very good.
Many thanks. That's great.
Thanks. We open up the line for Anders at ABG. Hello? Anders, are you with us?
Oh, hello. Good morning. Can you hear me now?
Yep.
Yes, indeed.
Fantastic. I just wondered about your capacity basically in Electrification, given this very strong order trend. Previously, you talked about even having some capacity slack in the U.S., and I know that you now add, well, another $100 million to the CapEx budget. Could you maybe just update us on that? Maybe also in connection to that, just the margin potential that you saw, particularly in the U.S. in terms of Electrification, what's the progress report on that given these additional volumes?
We are taking and getting more capacity online in Electrification, but it's not only Electrification, goes to also Motion and Automation. Of course, the majority of CapEx has been spent in the last few years in Electrification, and we are doing that as well. We've guided also a bit higher CapEx spend this year, and we see that because with the order increase, that is also needed. The capacity expansions that is now coming online, what kind of money that was spent two years ago and last year, this is now coming into more capacity. We talked earlier, I can give you a practical example from our Smart Power unit in Senatobia, Mississippi. That factory is double the size today compared to what it was three years ago. The production line is this year putting it online.
We are hiring more people, we're training, and you're getting capacity kind of more month by month, quarter- by- quarter up, because building new capacity doesn't come in stepwise. You can complete a building, but getting automatic production line, getting people trained, and getting that efficiency gain that you also need month by month, takes some time. That's what we're seeing happening now. I don't think we are the limiting factor when you're talking about build-out, especially like in the energy expansion. We know the equipment like gas turbines, large power transformers, is more of a limiting factor when it comes to, than we are on switchgear and the component level. We're also expanding capacity by appointing new partners, the OEM partners, the ones who will build switchgear and do the system integration on ABB's behalf.
that is also how we can scale up capacity without doing everything in-house, but using that kind of partnership network. We look at the margin expansion in the United States. First of all, we don't give detail in our quarterly report, but we have said earlier where we are developing, and this is as we get more capacity online, as we get more efficiency out of that new capacity, we also see that margin is going up, but we are still not on the expected level. Our U.S. Electrification business, this dilutive to the rest of Electrification, performing much, much better than before, but still a gap up there to the average level.
As you may know that many of our, let's say, peers in this market, the main profit pool comes from the U.S., and that is not the case yet for ABB. That's the upside we have talked about. Hard work still remains, but making steady progress.
Maybe I can add to the U.S. margin, Morten. As a reminder, this is, of course, good that we see these volumes coming in because that's one driver of the margin. The other one is the continuation of the build-out of the operations in terms of robotization and automation. That is also, like Morten said, we are expanding that, and that also is a good driver of the continuation of the margin expansion in the U.S. for Electrification.
Very good.
Very helpful. Thank you.
Thanks, Anders. We take one question here from the web tool, and we have [Kulwinder] here who wants to know, I want to better understand the growth in the short cycle businesses across the three business areas and if this growth has benefited from large projects.
No, it has not benefited from large projects. That it hasn't, because the short-cycle business is more small projects, faster moving. What I can say is that when you're looking at the size, it is in all three business areas, Automation and Motion, more in the high single-digit, while Electrification, we see double-digit growth on that side. It is very much what I like to see. It's across the board. It's not standing out in one segment or one geography or one division or business area. It is really across the board. I think that's what's most very encouraging to see in this quarter.
Yes. We open up for another question from Martin at Citigroup. Martin, your line should be open.
Yeah, thank you. Good morning. It's Martin at Citigroup. Just to come back to data center, obviously across the industry, including for yourselves, Q4 was a phenomenal quarter, and you've sort of beaten that again. What sort of drove that beat? Because I'm guessing you have some visibility in the pipeline. I guess it's quite a big uplift relative to what everyone thought three months ago. Just to get a bit of an understanding as to what drove that and how did the pipeline still look when you're looking at customer build backs and so forth for the remainder of the year. Thank you.
Thanks, Martin. When you're looking at the data center profile, it was many projects. It's hyperscalers, yes, it's colocation operators, yes. It's Europe, it's Asia, but it is a big part. We saw that also with 68% growth in the United States. Of course, a lot of that also stems from data centers. It really also here across the board, there's no kind of one elephant orders. There's many, or it's just high demand. What we see especially from hyperscalers, where we, as you know, work with all of them and making good progress there, but also increasing with scope. You heard we talk about the medium voltage UPS earlier. It's a product that is gaining also traction and gaining more share in that market.
That, of course, for us, that's a scope expansion that would give us additional growth compared to others, as we were historically. I didn't have that share on that market. Overall, just a very solid and strong demand in our areas. If you look in the outlook and our pipeline, it's still very strong. That's also the basis of the confidence that we're having when we're talking about the outlook. The discussions, we are more, of course, executing what we're doing, but we're also putting a lot of efforts now into our technology roadmap into how we are able to supply that 800-volt DC architecture that comes a year or two from now. None of the orders that we show today is related to that. This is all new projects to come.
We do see still a very solid, a very strong pipeline, and the feedback from the customers in the discussions that we have is very positive and more about how we can do more and how we can help them to expand faster.
That's really encouraging. Thank you.
Thanks, Martin. Linked to the data center question, here's one from Risk who asks, Do you think the data center market is heading for a more integration one-stop shop model and away from the partnership model? And do we have any white spots?
No, I think when it comes to how data centers are built today, it's always you work together with different parties. First, of course, with the operators, if that's one of the hyperscalers who run the data center. You have also so much equipment inside there, that are racks that's being on cooling, that being both on chip level but also on the whole facility. There are so many parties involved. What we do is to make more of that partnership thinking and with all the related parties on the site. That could be on the cooling side with many of the large cooling specialists, most of them are our customers and partners in there. We need to make sure that our solution fits perfectly well with that solution. That's our commitment, and for that we can work with many.
I think that is one of our strengths in this field, because as capacity and the build-out has happened, now getting bigger and bigger, there is also a risk putting everything, all your eggs in one basket. We also see that especially from hyperscalers, that they want to have a technology expertise from us, but they want us also to work with others where we are relevant so that we can come with that combined offering. That's how I see the market, and that's also a big part of our success here and how we are successful in those discussions.
We open up the line for Will at Kepler Cheuvreux, please.
Yeah. Good morning, and hello, Christian. Thank you for the question. I'm going to go a little off-piste. I would like to ask a question about your Automation Extended commercial model. I thought it was interesting you've put it in the slide deck there, and you've highlighted the scale of the installed base in DCS and your opportunity to grow in software and life cycle. But I don't see any financial targets or scoping. Could you perhaps give us some guide points or way points towards the size of the market opportunity, the scale that that might mean for revenue and margin, and how the leadership team in Automation is going to track to that new strategy? Thank you.
Yeah. With our Automation Extended model here, it's very much how we can support customers in that journey. They have given us a lot of trust by having us being the provider of their distributed control system, their whole automation system of the plant. That is why when we are looking at this, it's very much what we're tracking is the service revenue, what we call the upgrades here. This becomes for us like an ARR. When you are on site, this is how we track it. We do that by customer and looking at also the how we can support customers throughout the lifetime. We often talk about automation, about leading with service. Service after sales and sales after service. This is how that whole circle is moving.
When we're looking at the margin and the profile of it, we are more still here looking at how can we long-term be that technology provider partner for our end user customers and be able to also be their trusted partners, when they come to specifying all the new equipment that comes in, that helps our Electrification and our Motion. This is what I talk about the power of ABB and how we're able to bring this together. That is also how what we measure about the success rate. It's not only about measuring Automation of what they're doing, with their own developed DCS and their own systems, but it's also what they're able to bring the rest of ABB equipment and making an ABB or a customer's facility more and higher ABB content on site. That is our parameters that we measure, of course.
We believe that this is not only driving volume growth in our automation and for the ABB, but it also over time, we see that also it's the more service content, the more of upgrade content, it also drives margins through because service is normally a better margin profile than the new sales. This is how we also then measure our automation team in that part of their KPI model when we do that. The main part here is to be a long-term technology partner for our customers, because we believe we see that that is what creates trust, and that means also we are part when they make new expansion, a new project, we are helping them also making their specification and making how it's run, and that's overall what drives performance for ABB in many of these segments.
Yeah. Maybe if I add, Morten, it's a little bit of a plug for the CFO of the ABB Way. This is Automation Extended in this one part that we are looking at. That's just how we operate. We kind of obsessively love the accountability drive. We set targets, and we operate and really measure our businesses. We talk about it, of course, at a division level and division -1 . Initiatives like this and when we look at extra areas of investing and so on, we bring the same rigor of accountability and measurement to that aspect. Just to add, a good example of ABB Way further up.
Thank you very much.
If we stay with you, Christian, here is a question from the web tool from Thomas for the new CFO. Timo has stated that he is comfortable with leveraging ABB to 2x EV/EBITDA. Do you agree with this view, and what is the M&A capacity that you see?
Okay. Two parts of the question, I guess. First of all, I would absolutely concur with the prior view of Timo that leveraging up to the 2 x give us comfort to do that in the current framework we are in terms of ratings and so on. If I think about that a little bit on M&A firepower, as the question was the second part. Yeah, if I think about the run rate of our EBITDA right now for the last 12 months, growing will take us to maybe $7 billion and change, less the current debt, and we do that at 2 x, will bring us to maybe $13 billion and some change. Of course, on top of that, we have the sale of robotics in the H2 of the year, so add $5 billion to that.
In terms of M&A firepower in our current structure, I would be as comfortable as Timo was on that 2x, meaning we get to that $18 billion or so. That, of course, like I said, means that we stay with our current framework of share buybacks of up to $2 billion and so on. Those are things that the variables that one can always look at to add into that firepower, of course, if so would be needed. Yeah, I feel very comfortable with the same 2x leverage. Yeah.
Thank you. We open up the call for Joe at Cowen, please.
Hey, guys. Can you hear me?
We can.
Yes.
Good morning.
Good morning. I'm just curious, particularly in, I guess, across the board, but mostly in data center, just given the magnitude, when you say that the order patterns are not really reflective of any sort of over-ordering or excessively early ordering, how do you really evaluate that? How do you understand if your customers aren't seeing developments in the Middle East potentially spiraling, and wanting to just make sure that they're procuring ahead of something that I know you're not seeing any behavior changes yet, but I guess, what's the thought process in understanding that dynamic?
No, it is based on the discussions we have with all our major customers in this field. That's where our conviction and confidence comes from. We should also remember that Q1 last year was a bit lower in the data center space. Yeah, that was not the booming quarter. I remember this time 12 months ago, I had a lot of questions that the data center is slowing down, and now it's the opposite. A year can make a big difference. That is also, we have to take that into account as well, when you look back at maybe the transcripts from April 25. Again, our confidence is built on the discussions in the CapEx plans, and also, of course, what our customers and partners, what they share with us.
What's their need, and we don't see a lot of pre-ordering, but of course, it is about making sure that capacity will be allocated to them in the right timeframe. That is on high demand and a high concern, of course, on the hyperscaler, but also from others. We're having an approach here, especially when you talk about U.S. capacity, that we don't want to sell everything we can into data center. We are trying to find a balanced approach, serving so many different markets as we are, and giving them a fair allocation or a fair treatment into these different segments. That is what we're also looking at in this year. For us, as always, the main concern or has been top priority is to be a reliable partner. I think that really pays dividends.
What we see now also, that we're having a very high say-do ratio, that we don't take orders just to boost the order book, but we only take orders where we say we will be able to deliver, we have capacity booked for it, and we are therefore able to give you that confidence and also take terms and conditions for our customers that we are confident that we're going to handle it in a good way. That's more the thinking behind it.
I throw in another piece of that is that majority of these orders also come through down payments. That shows a commitment from the customers that we have that structure from the terms and conditions, like Morten said. That's just a part to add.
Yep.
Okay. Very good.
Very good.
Thanks, Joe. James from Redburn. You're next in line here.
Thanks, Ann-Sofie, and good morning, everybody. Maybe I could follow up on the data center. Just to clarify, you mentioned that the scope of material is increasing more than medium voltage UPS. Is there any way you could scale the degree to which the medium voltage UPS business is growing as a share of your data center order book? Tied to this, in general, the really strong orders you've had in data center in the last two quarters, what do you think the duration of delivery of those is on average, and is it changing?
Yep. First, when I talk about the scope expansion, it's what we referred to earlier on the medium voltage UPS side, where you're moving the low voltage UPS scope instead of doing this power supply reliability on that level, you can take part of it and do it on the outside, often part of an E-house on the medium voltage level. That is able to reduce both the OPEX, the run cost, because it has better energy efficiency, and it also reduced the white space requirement, which is normally much more expensive to build than the gray space. This is how we are able to address market, and as you may know, our position on the white space is not as strong as it is on the gray space.
That's how we are able to gain some market share in this segment by getting more of a different technical solution. We are the first and the only provider of a medium voltage UPS, which is also one of the building blocks that will sit in our 800-volt DC architecture. It's one of the key building blocks. That's why I'm confident also in this long-term view, in that space. I think when we say looking at the different customers, there is no specific, no bigger project. It was an overall strong demand across. That's also how I would see into the pipeline. We're working with a very diverse customer base here in the data center space, and therefore, that's also what we would like to see, and not being fully dependent on one, but really having as wide customer base as possible.
That's helpful. Just to clarify, on the orders you're taking in the quarter, would you expect to deliver those in 12 months' time or 24 months' time or?
Most of them would be in the 12 months-24 months time horizon. That is because a data center of this size, you can get some smaller change orders that comes in last minute, but most of them are going into when the building and the whole data center is coming up. That takes quite a while. We're talking about 12 months-24+ months time span.
Thank you.
Thanks, James. We have another question. I hand that over to you, Christian. I assume that this question is regarding Electrification. It's from Olivia, who asks, "Which quarter do you expect a positive price-cost gap again?" Because that's where we're talking about.
Yeah. We walked into Q1, as we said, and anticipated that there is a little bit of a gap specifically for Electrification. As is natural when we put price to offset the cost, a little bit some are contractual differences or the timing of that. We expect that gap to shrink. It will shrink further in Q2, and we feel good about this being totally, let's say, closed out in the H2 of the year.
Thank you. We open up the line for Daniela at Goldman Sachs. Please, can you hear us?
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to ask about oil and gas exposures. I guess there's some hopes now that we will see maybe an oil and gas CapEx diversifying a way out of the Middle East given what has been happening. Can you remind us your exposure and where in the value chains you are more relevant? Also if we do start to see, let's say, FIDs, how long does it take until we start to see things flowing through in your backlog and P&L respectively? Thank you.
Yeah. I may start here. Overall exposure, seen of course, as an energy industry sits with our automation business. For the company, we are at around 4%, is it, in overall, but of course, more in the- I will get here Ann-Sofie probably to help me also on the exact numbers. Also saying here our exposure and strongest on the oil and gas side in two areas is in the North Sea, where we have a strong position and more and more on the gas, especially on the gas side, LNG is in the United States. Very successful there when they talk about drilling pipelines and terminals, where we are partner in many of the big expansion that's happening already. Talking about in Texas and Louisiana, which are the two states that benefits the most these days.
Those are projects that we are heavily involved in, and I think that it was for me also very visible when I was at CERAWeek in Houston earlier this year, talking about this energy expansion and the build-out that is already ongoing, and we see that in some of the orders, especially on the LNG side for United States. I do believe that we will see an energy expansion, building energy resilience in so many countries after now what we've seen. Take Europe as one example, being so in the past dependent on Russian gas. A lot of that dependency have now been moved to the Middle East, and that's where we are today.
Doing a stronger build-out would, in my opinion, be needed in the North Sea to increase, but also with new terminals that has been built, for instance, now both in Greece and Italy and the north of Germany, so we can receive gas here in Europe from other places that be United States probably as the main port. We will see more of that build-out coming I think in the next years, and I think, Ann-Sofie, you would have also. Correct me, if I-
No, if you look at oil and gas, it's about 9%-10% of the group level, and if you look at automation specifically, which you referred to, it's about double that size-
Yeah
-in terms of share of revenues.
A bit more than I said also, yes. Good
Okay. Thank you.
Thanks, Daniela. We move to Ben at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Yeah. Morning, guys. Thank you for the question. We've had some recent updates to the Section 232 tariffs in the U.S., and I was wondering if this is something that could have incremental impact to you, the incremental benefit, if there's any analysis or views that you can share on that topic in the U.S. Thank you.
Thanks. Maybe I take it then on the 232. As we see it today, right now, this should be a fairly limited exposure for us. The main driver for that limit is the content where we are most often well below the 15% that is dictated in that 232 guidance. For us right now, how we see it, the exposure is fairly limited.
Super clear. Thank you.
Thanks, Ben. We move to Jonathan at BNP Paribas, please.
Hello. Hi.
Hi.
Thanks for fitting me in. Hey. Just really circling back to the balance sheet and the strength, it's really clear to hear about the firepower. Obviously, that's a lot of cash that can potentially be deployed. What about the pipeline on M&A? Sort of thinking, how does it compare to a year ago? What are the regional focuses, the technology focuses, and all linked to that? In the absence of deals and with the comment about the money from robotics, do we really need $18 billion of firepower? Is there a reasonable chance of an incremental buyback program after that money comes in?
Yeah. If we need the $18 billion, it sounds like it's a big pile of money that I can fully agree to. Let's rather start on the M&A side. I think we have a strong pipeline today when we are looking at deals. We are doing deals as well. We refer to the Siemens Gamesa deal as one example in Motion that was about 3% of their comparable revenue for this quarter, just as one example. These deals, which are more of bolt-ons, and those are happening all the time. I know that it doesn't require the $18 billion, but these are important also to know that's how we see that we can have good fit with ABB, either be it in technology or in market access.
That's kind of the deals, more the bolt-ons that is happening every month, and you will see a list every quarter when they come on board. Also we have identified a few areas where we would like to expand also through M&A. Those are markets where either we have a strong position already as ABB, or we see an opportunity with a nice adjacency that we can make a relevant offering to our customers in that field. Of course, the focus here is, as you would expect, we're looking at can we get even more share in the data center space? Can we get more into markets where, like North America, where we do see good, strong growth, utilities in general all over the world, grid automation, and that builds on grid resilience. These are all areas where we are looking actively into M&As.
One thing always we said at ABB, and I've said from the start, it's all about value creation opportunity. We need to make a solid business plan and having a good payback on those deals that need to be, of course, better than doing a share buyback program on top of it. It's the value creation that is there, and when we are confident and finding the right assets with also an acceptable price, then we're going for it. That's the criteria. As I always say, I would rather do no deals instead of doing bad deals, but of course, our focus is on good deals. That's the focus. We have a pipeline there that we're working on, and we will inform you all when we are ready with those kind of announcements.
Okay. Thanks, Jon. We have a couple of minutes left, so we're squeezing in Ben from Oxcap also, please. Your line should be open.
Oh, brilliant. Thank you, Ann-Sofie, and hello, everyone. I guess my question may be a slightly odd one for Morten, but we've seen this step change in Electrification and actually on the power side in the last couple of quarters. I guess when you track your internal metrics, when you look at quotation activity, the kind of list of projects, the list of potential orders, did you see that sort of step change, let's say, back in September, October? You kind of looking at that tender pipeline, you knew it was coming.
I guess the obvious follow-on is when you look at that tender pipeline today, is it continuing to build? i.e., do we feel confident or is it beginning to level out? I guess we're trying to figure out, is this the new normal or are we just going to continue going up from here, which is pretty incredible.
Oh, thanks. Thanks, Ben. Would we have forecasted at precisely the order intake of Electrification the last couple of quarter? I would have to say no. I think our hit rate has been higher than we normally would expected. We have seen a strong pipeline, a strong outlook, and we see that also going forward, but our hit rate has been on a very good level, very strong level. You also have to see when you're looking at what's the level to expect, I think kind of Q1 is always very strong if you look at the relative kind of total order. Q1 is normally stronger than Q2 when I talk about like for like comparison. If you look at the historical values, you will see that normally Q1 is a very strong order intake quarter. We don't give any forecasts on order intake.
We do that on revenues and on profit. What I can say, pipeline still looks very strong, but historically, normally you have seen a bit of lower value in Q2 than what you have in Q1, which is normally order intake one of the strongest.
Understood. Thank you.
Thanks, Ben. With that, we close this session. Thank you very much for taking the time to join us. Much appreciated, and we'll see you in about a quarter's time.
Great. Thanks.