Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Feb 4, 2021

Greetings to you all, and welcome to this conference call and webcast for ABB's 4th Quarter and Full Year 2020 Results. The press release and financial information documents were published this morning at 7 a. M. And can be found on our website along with the presentation we will go through here today. Following the presentation, we will open up for a Q and A session. With me today to present here are ABB's CEO, Bjorn Rolfs Ingredion and CFO, Timo Iamotila. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to the information regarding Safe Harbor notices on our use of non GAAP measures on Slide 2 of the ABB presentation. This conference call will include forward looking statements. These statements are based on the company's current expectations and certain assumptions and are therefore subject to certain risks and uncertainties. With that said, I will now hand over to Bjorn and Timo for the presentation. Please go ahead. Thank you, Anssi, and welcome to everyone on the I have now been with ABB for almost exactly 1 year. And looking back, it has been a very eventful and exciting year. Let us go through some of the highlights on Slide number 3. It was a year when we Transitioned ABB towards improved performance. We implemented the decentralized operating model We call ABB Way, making the division the highest operating level. They now have the cost ownership. They drive R and D for profitable growth and they evolve their business portfolios. We launched our 2030 sustainability strategy and updated our financial network in November. And we delivered On the simplification program, it achieved targeted net saving run rate of EUR 500,000,000 1 year ahead of plan. I'm very confident that the actions taken in 2020 will leverage performance Going forward, 2020 was also a year of the pandemic with dominated the market development. I am thankful for the speed and dedication of the ABB team on how mitigation actions were implemented. The agile response to COVID-nineteen challenges enabled our organization to prioritize Health and safety, while keeping operations running and undertaking strong cost mitigation efforts. After a year like 2020, I'm proud to see the progress we have made in our employee engagement survey. It shows that our employees have more clarity of their roles and responsibilities as well as of our overall purpose of the company. We really saw the culture change gain momentum in 2020. Timo will talk you through the full year numbers a little bit later on. Turning to Slide 4. We shift focus to the Q4. We saw a continued sequential improvement in customer activity from the low level noted during summer. In total, orders and revenues remained broadly stable year over year. The positive impact from mid single digit growth in the short cycle business was offset by subdued demand for services and headwinds in selected end markets such as oil and gas. We secured some larger system order wins for our world leading ACIPOD propulsion technology. The Machine Automation division also closed out the period with an all time high level of future design wins. This creates a good base to build from after the management change in machine automation division is completed. Revenues were stable, but we still managed to improve the operational EBITA margin by 140 basic points. And the increase was led by stellar performance in Electrification and Motion. Synergies from GIS came in ahead of targets, dollars 120,000,000 run rate, And the integration is now approximately 2 third completed. Further down the income statement, We had some adverse impact on the basic EPS. This related to pension and debt Action taken during the quarter to strengthen our long term financial position, but also to Power Grids Book gain adjustment reflecting ordinary closing related balance sheet adjustments. Operational EPS For continued operations improved by 20% to $0.26 Turning to Slide 5, showing ABB's regional order trends in comparable year on year terms. Asia, Middle East and Africa grew strongly, while both Europe and Americas remained impacted by the COVID-nineteen pandemic. In Europe, orders were 12% lower year on year and the business areas were challenged. In Germany, expansion in Motion and Electrification stands out, with total orders in each Of these business areas up in double digit terms. In the Americas, orders were 6% lower, led by decline of 12% in U. S. Alongside demand impact from the COVID restrictions, Orders intake was also impacted by a downturn in oil and gas activities. A significant recovery was noted in Asia, Middle East and Africa. Orders rose 23% with Strong support from China improving by 21% in the quarter. We highlight excellent growth in RA in China with orders up close to 90% year on year. And with that, I hand over to Timo to cover the results in more details. Please. Thank you, Bjorn, and good morning, everyone. On Slide 6, I will begin with a review of what in our view was a solid end to a challenging year. On stable revenues, we increased operational EBITA by 12% on constant currency and 16% in U. S. Dollar terms. Margins improved by 140 basis points. I'm pleased to see our prompt actions yielding results In margins in the 4th quarter, while other costs were down, R and D expenses in the 4th quarter in our 4 businesses increased by 3% year on year. Looking at below the line items, All divisions carefully reviewed their operations, and this shows in restructuring related expenses at EUR 220,000,000 compared to €99,000,000 the prior year period. Charge is mainly related to the future delivery of ABB OS savings, Synergies from GIS's integration and planned performance improvements in Industrial Automation. The planned actions undertaken to strengthen ABB's financial flexibility and derisk the balance sheet also weighted on results As did the adjustment to the Power Grids book gain. In total, basic EPS amounted to a negative 0 point 0 $4 Operational EPS in continuing operations, which adjusts for non operational items and excludes impacts from the divestment of Power Grids, was EUR 0.26 up 20% year on year. Cash flow from operating activities in continuing Operations was SEK 1,200,000,000 after outflows totaling about SEK 200,000,000 from the Kusile settlement and pension plan transfers. I will come back to the full year cash flow dynamics in a bit. Turning to the 4th quarter results For our business areas, I will begin with electrification on Slide 7. Electrification's orders were 2% lower, Benefiting from strong demand in data centers and e mobility and solid growth in renewables, rail and food and beverage. Oil and Gas was challenged. Buildings improved sequentially with residential activity outpacing nonresidential. Revenues increased by 5%, supported by strong backlog execution and short cycle business. Electrification's operational EBITA margin improved 2 50 basis points to 15.6 percent in its target range for the Q2 in a row. The excellent result was driven by better volumes, Supportive pricing and rigorous cost management, although the current low level of, for example, travel expenses is not expected to be sustainable in the long term. In addition, both GIS integration and the turnaround of installation products progressed well. During the quarter, we noted rising raw material prices. While it did not impact the Q4 result, It will be a headwind to manage during 2021. Looking ahead into the Q1, we expect a low to mid Single digit growth in revenues to support close to similar year on year improvement rate in operational margins as seen in the 4th quarter. Next on Slide 8, we look at industrial automation or process automation, as we call it, from the beginning of this year. Orders increased by 9%, a strong result driven by large orders in the Marine business, mainly for LNG Specialty Vessels. IAE saw select activity in process industries such as mining and water and wastewater. Energy Industries, Particularly oil and conventional power generation were challenged. The order backlog at quarter end was SEK 5,800,000,000, an increase of SEK 650,000,000 from the end of the third quarter. Revenues declined 11%, reflecting subdued levels book and bill activities with service being particularly weak in end markets such as cruise. The operational EBITA margin of 6.8% was 5.30 basis points lower year on year. This includes the combined impact of 2 70 basis points from the settlement of the Khusile project with Eskom in South Africa and charges related to legacy power generation projects in India. Aside these items, profitability was hampered by lower volumes An unfavorable mix predominantly related to lower services activity. In response to the current low profitability level, IA has initiated structural actions to improve long term performance. Looking into the Q1, Order growth is expected to decline significantly on the back of a higher comparable from the Q1 in 2020. Revenue is foreseen to decrease at a similar rate as noted in the Q4, and the margin should remain largely Stable on a sequential basis, excluding the impact from the project charges. On Slide 9, we turn to Motion, which again noted a solid delivery. Orders declined 5%, mainly reflecting a tough Large order comparison. Demand from rail and water and wastewater was healthy. Some end markets, particularly oil and gas, remained challenged. Revenues were flat, with development reflecting solid growth in short cycle business and strong execution of the backlog. The operational EBITA margin of 16.8 percent expanded 140 basis points year on year, benefiting from good cost mitigation, Stable volumes and supportive mix, even if rising freight costs were a headwind. Looking at the quarter ahead, We recognize the record high comparable to be reflected in the expected negative order growth for Q1 2021. However, revenue growth should improve compared to Q4, while anticipated business mix is expected to lead to a slightly smaller margin improvement when compared to Q4. On Slide 10, we turn to Robotics and Discrete Automation. Orders were 5% lower. However, the result includes reversals of about SEK 50,000,000 mainly in the order book for machine automation. These reversals adversely affected the business areas comparable growth rate by about 7%. Adjusting for this accounting impact, Orders from machine automation were up clearly double digit. In robotics, strong activity in 3C, Improved activity in general industry and select investments in EV manufacturing supported the order result. Demand from China was stellar. As Bjorn highlighted earlier, Ares orders were close to 90% higher year on year in China. The order development also reflects The more selective approach now being applied towards robotic systems business in the automotive industry, part The division's strategy to improve margins by shifting its mix toward higher value at smart systems and application sales. Revenues declined 3%, supported by positive developments in machine automation and good backlog execution. This was, however, more than offset by weaker development in robotics, particularly due to weak automotive segment and service business. The operational EBITA margin declined to 7.3%, impacted by lower volumes, but also by unfavorable mix, primarily related to deliveries from the robotics order backlog to the Automotive segment. Looking into the Q1, we currently foresee orders to be Slightly up on a sequential basis, while the growth rate should be adversely impacted by a more challenging comparable period. Revenue growth should return to positive territory, supporting a slight margin improvement year on year. Let's now turn to Slide 11 and look a bit closer at the makeup of our operational EBITDA margins during the recent years. We can see that the amount of extraordinary items is steadily decreasing, both when we look at Q4 as well as full year comparisons. We have eliminated the stranded cost after the closing of the Power Grids transaction. In non core business, the exposure continues to decrease significantly, With clearly less than 10 projects still under execution, we are looking to exit the remainder of the non core business as soon as practicable. However, as said at our Capital Markets Day, we still have 2 main exposures, and our exit from these exposures is partly reliant on legal proceedings, which could stretch beyond 2021. Regarding Coosile, we are not expecting further operational charges after settlement done in Q4 with Eskom in South Africa. That said, the settlement does not cover regulatory proceedings outside South Africa, which are currently not estimable. Moving to Slide 12 and the cash flow from operating activities in continuing operations, which remained stable at SEK 1,900,000,000 in 2020. This is in line with our guidance of resilient cash performance for the year. The 2020 result includes lower income from businesses in the wake of the pandemic and a favorable development of trade networking capital. It also includes A total of approximately SEK 1,000,000,000 outflows incurred from ABB's transformation efforts. On a year on year basis, when excluding these impacts in both periods, cash flow from operating activities in continuing operations was significantly higher. Looking to 2021, we expect to deliver a meaningful uplift in cash flow from operating activities. On Slide 13, let's look at the benefits from our capital structure optimization program now largely concluded. As discussed earlier, we are using the proceeds from the divestment of Power Grids on our ongoing buyback program. We purchased 109,000,000 Shares in the second half of twenty twenty, just over 5% of our share capital. In addition, we continued to build on actions started During the Q3 to deleverage ABB in an efficient way and in a value maximizing way. In terms of debt and credit, in the 4th quarter, we opted to an early retirement of approximately SEK 1,200,000,000 of bonds, which had high coupons. At the start of this year, we also were able to benefit from favorable market conditions by issuing a 0% long duration bond of EUR 800,000,000 Also in the 4th quarter, we transferred certain pension plan obligations to 3rd party insurers. In total, pension deals completed during the second half of the year cover an estimated SEK 2,500,000,000 of pension obligations that were underfunded by an estimated SEK 770,000,000. The deals have been enabled by about SEK 3 SEK60 1,000,000 of cash contributions as well as the transfer of approximately SEK1.8 billion of existing pension plan assets. As a consequence, We recorded nonoperational pension charges of about SEK 380,000,000 SEK 140,000,000 in our income statement in the 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively. These transactions are an efficient way to deleverage, Significantly reducing the underfunding of our pension liabilities and making future negative cash flow and PLN impact less likely. In summary, we have significantly improved our financial flexibility using proceeds from the divestment of the power grids in a responsible and efficient way, placing ABB in a stronger financial position for 2021 and beyond. To conclude, let's move to Slide 14, where we summarize the full year results. You can see in the chart that although the short cycle business recovered in the latter part of the year, we remained in negative comparable growth of 6% for the year. Revenues declined by 5% on a comparable basis, but we managed to keep operational EBITDA margin stable at 11.1% with increased R and D investment in our business areas. Cash flow from operating activities was SEK 1,700,000,000 for the year, including outflows of close to SEK 1,000,000,000 related to special items stemming from our transformation and capital optimization programs. Operational EPS declined by 21% to $0.98 However, Excluding the difference in operational EPS from Power Grids, continuing operations EPS was 7% lower. The Board signals its strong belief in future performance with a proposed stable dividend of CHF 0.80 CHF per share. And with that, let me pass you back to Bjorn for his closing remarks. Yes. Thank you, Timo. Let's take a look at our short term end market outlook on Slide 15. We stick to our base case profile of a protracted recovery. As indicated in the chart, On one hand, we expect some of our end markets, particularly in the short cycle part of the business, to continue to recover. On the other hand, we expect negative development to continue in some of our longer cycle business like oil and gas and conventional power generation. For the Q1, we also note that we face a challenging comparable of orders. This may put pressure on the growth rate in the Q1 before we expect to return to positive order development in Q2. We foresee a fairly stable sequential market development in Q1 with a moderate year on year revenue growth. But I expect us to meaningfully improve margins. Forward visibility is limited. And I would say that market uncertainty increased through the Q4 due to the pandemic. At this stage, we foresee revenue growth for the year broadly in line with our target range. And I expect us to make steady progress in margins and earnings per share as well as posting a solid cash delivery. Our base case scenario for gradual recovery of demand remains unchanged. We foresee estimated growth in our addressable markets of about 5% until 2023. And we should grow at least in line with our markets in this period. This is not to be compared with the through the cycle growth targets of 3% to 5%. To conclude on Slide 16, Let us look at some key priorities for 2021, a year when I expect us to make steady progress in profitability. We have now laid the foundation for improved performance by implementing the decentralized operating model and improved performance management. We have seen the culture change in ABB gain momentum in 2020. We now need to firmly cement the culture of accountability, transparency and speed. We are already making good progress. Starting with operational performance. I clearly expect us to show good progress towards our 2023 margin targets. Our base case is not a significant market recovery in 2021, and we will continue to execute on efficiency measures. We have additional activities in the pipeline with Anticipated restructuring charges of about US200 $1,000,000 in 2021, mainly in process automation to improve performance and electrification to drive the final mile of the GIS integration. Of course, There are challenges to manage. For example, rising raw material costs, increased focus on value based pricing is one way to offset these increased costs. Still, we acknowledge that we are in the midst of a pandemic, And our number one priority remains the health and safety of our people. Active portfolio management is high on our agenda. And we have already moved into execution mode on the 3 divisions to be exited. That said, value creation is most important for us, and we will not go into fire sales. In other words, it may take some time to complete some of the deals. We also expect all of our divisional managers to build the pipeline of potential M and A targets, but also to continuously review the business portfolio with the divisions for potential consolidation. Finally, looking at capital allocation. You heard Timo talking about the stronger financial position, and we expect meaningfully uplift in cash generation in 2021. We will continue to invest in R and D to maintain a leading technology position to drive long term profitability growth. We expect to spend about €750,000,000 in CapEx. We continue to execute On the share buyback program, and the Board has proposed a dividend share of CHF CHF 0.80, in line with our policy to pay a rising Sustainable annual dividend per share over time. We are looking forward to an exciting 2021. Thank you, Bjorn. And now we will open up for questions. And I can see that there are many waiting and wanting to Now we move into the first Question and that will come from Martin Wilkie at Citi. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning. It's Martin from Citi. The first question will just Clarify on your growth outlook for the year. You commented firstly that the market We should grow a GAGR of 5.1 percent through 2023, but you commented, I think, we shouldn't compare that to your 3% to 5% growth target. So I just wanted to clarify first Exactly what you mean by that. And then secondly, just on the growth for the year, you've commented it should be in line Your midterm target, so is that in line with the 3% to 5% or in line with this 5.1% market growth? Thank you. Thank you, Martin. I think I'll take that one. Yes, I mean what you're seeing during the year is that we're slowly getting And during the quarter, we saw actually flat orders and flat revenues. Moving into next year, of course, we'll see a Kickback in the markets, which we're looking forward to. And what we're saying in that guidance here That the market short term might be a little bit higher than our business cycle, which we said in our long term targets. And What we are saying here that even though we have a strong focus on financial performance, getting the EBITDA to the right level 2023, We are definitely going to grow in line with the markets and maybe even exceed if we are things moving. But That's our objective, so on the growth part. So what I think you referred also on the second question was a little bit This 3% to 5% target, what we're saying a little bit here is that in the end markets where we are And what we expect to do, including M and A, we should be around 3% to 5%, but that's over business cycle. So that means both in ups and downs. And we said actually during the Capital Market Day that we expect the markets to grow, of Of course, no one knows yet, but to be 5% during until 2023 because of the dip. And then we said, of course, we will meet that. So that's a little bit what we're saying. I hope that explains it, Marit. Yes, it does, Yanno. That's very helpful. And if I could just have one other follow-up on that. Sure. The point is automotive Is in the gray part of the bar negative 5% to 15%. I would say that a few other companies, both in robotics and automation, over the Few weeks have been a bit more constructive on automotive. So I just wondered why you thought that was going to be still quite negative for the next 3 to 6 months? Yes. It's correct that we've seen automotive kicking back in many parts. On the other hand, there is a lot of expectation when you look at the fully coming back to these SEK 90,000,000 part, It's not 2021 as we have seen it. It will take a little bit longer. On the other hand, there is a transformation also towards more vehicles, which we'll do there. So from our perspective and what we the one who's Looking into the future of the automotive industry that, yes, this transformation towards e vehicles might keep people back a little bit from making that full investment. So we are saying that we believe that, that would have some kind of impact. If you're looking at how the automotive industry impacts us is mostly in the robotic business. And you know that's been a very challenging year for the robotics. On the other hand, that has come back somewhat. On the other hand, we are focusing more on other segments than those Turnkey solutions where there is low ABB content within. So we see good opportunities in many other industry, and Really where the big focus is today, logistics, general industry, electronics and Just give you an indication on that part. In China, on the robot and discrete task major, we saw a 90% increase during the quarter. So there are a lot of opportunities in other segments for us. Can I just make a comment? Yes, Martin, just a quick comment for everybody's benefit. I presume you are referring to the slide where it says 3 to 6 month view, Just to clarify that we are talking about here 3 to 6 month view where we still have quite a bit of COVID impact expected in Europe and U. S. So this is not like a full year thing. Yes. So if you look at the full year, it might be a little bit more optimistic. That's great. Thank you very much. Thank you. And we move on to the next question, and that will be from Shane McKenna at Barclays. Please go ahead, Shane. Good morning, Bjorn, Timo and Anthony. Just wondered if you could elaborate a bit more on the restructuring Taken in IA or I should say Process Automation and how much of the total group restructuring you've guided for 2021 of €200,000,000 is going to be specific for this division. And then I see you've made some comments on the time line for the salesspin of Turbo. As this business moves out, where do you see the white spaces in IA to plug the margin gap from Edexa? And then I'll squeeze one final one in. How long should we expect this drag from lower margin Systems Solution orders Let me start to elaborate a little bit on my favorite subject, the Process Automation or early call Industrial Automation. I mean to understand where we are on that business, you need really to dig into the details, And that's quite enjoyable from my side. In those numbers, there is the first if you look at the underlying performance of these It's about 10% margin. So what you're seeing in the numbers that includes the Kyzylus settlement And then another project in India, an old one which been cleaned out actually. So that is some part. But When you look at the PA, there are a number of, let's say, divisions that are Being challenged mainly on the service business. And this is, from my perspective, very unusual. When The cruising industry is standing still and no ships, and we're talking about hundreds of cruising ships, which is full with our solutions Ian is not operating. Then of course, you do much less service. Also in some power plant markets, where we have turbo compressors In tourist areas, which has been standing still, this is very unusual. So the service business is Quite dramatically down compared to the actually the Product and Solution sales. And that is giving a very negative mix. These installations are not going to disappear. They are out there. And as soon as things are opening up from COVID and restrictions are getting down, this business will kick back. So we feel very Optimistic about that. More challenging side, I think, from the Industrial Automation, it is in some of those segments, oil and As well as conventional power generation. And there, we're taking big actions to restructure ourselves in so we will be in line with the demands That are expecting and I'll take a little bit longer to kick back on that. So there is a lot of actions that have been done and is being done during this period. And we will expect Coming back here, a good coming back in margin during 2021. We feel quite comfortable about that, especially when the service is kicking back. On the robotics side, Yes, we've been I mean, the margin there is embarrassing low if you look at Where robots should be, and we have been very clear to that, that's a 15% market when we come to 2021. That's the levels where they need to be. So yes, we have in our Orders on hand, during this quarter, Some deliveries of what we call these turnkey solution with low ABB content, which have low margin, Which is affected. This will be some of that in Q1, and then you will gradually see improving margin Of course, we have pretty good control over our margins of the big orders that we have received during these periods. So in Q2, Q3 In Q4, you see the gradual improvement of that part. And you should be see also a good kickback in margin for this business during 2021. I hope that explains it. I think, Timo, you wanted to add on a little bit there? Yes. Maybe I'll just drop in couple of numbers here. So thanks, Svein. On the restructuring, where we say EUR 200,000,000 for the year, so you can look at it in a way that a bit less than EUR 100,000,000 is in IA related and bit less than 100 is in GEIS, EL type of related and rest is sort of Corporate and other business areas, ballpark. And then I think what Bjorn Meant was that the market is 15%, 2023, when we said we will be well within the margin range at our Capital Markets For the robotics business. So just throw that one in there as well. Thank you. I appreciate that correction, Timo. Thanks a lot. Thank you, Usain. And now we open up for the next Question which will come from Guillermo at UBS. Your line should be open now Guillermo. Thank you. Good morning, Nancy, Bjorn, Timo. I wanted to ask a question on robotics and this information maybe adding source cycle exposures at ABB. And I guess, Obviously, there are virgin trends now in China, Europe and Americas, and I wanted to focus on China. First, How was China doing through the quarter? What kind of shape of growth you saw on basically month to month basis? And What would you think the environment is at Q1 stage for the visibility you do have at the moment? I mean, Europe, obviously, Germany also on, I would say sequential flat or if I take your comments in the right way, but how did it evolve through the quarter? And what would you Think about the sequential development, I guess, in Q1. Thank you. Thank you, Guillermo. Yes, let's Start with the robotics in China. It's as I mentioned before that it was quite actually robotic part was actually 95 percent improvement compared to last year. So it's quite a dramatic. You know, we have a strong robot position in that market. And of course, a lot of good orders also from the electronics industry, which has helped us great there. So I think the whole year has or let's say, the last half year has been Gradually improving on the Chinese market. And you saw also our robotics side now was actually If you put back or Robert and Discrete Automation, if you put back the EUR 50,000,000 adjustment in orders, it's actually flat compared to the year before Or 2% improvement actually from previous years. So finally, we are moving into the right direction. Europe is trailing a little bit, I would say, and Germany is an important market there. And it's quite heavy lockdown at the moment, so we feel that there Our effects from that. On the U. S. Market, on robotics, we are not that strong. We have Quite a weak market share and a lot to be done there. So we are not really benefiting from big kickback There in the automotive industry in the North American market. But I think the important thing from robotics for the year, We've done a great job during the year to put that business in relation to the demand in the market. We spent more on R and D than we've done ever before. And we are actually launching a whole new range of Collaborative robots during the Q1 now in February is where we are quite excited about. So I think, Robert, my belief is that Robert will be a good contributor going forward. Thank you. And if I may follow-up on robotics again on the China new plant. Could I have Yes. Basically a post check on how is that developed and the ramp up, Omid? Thank you. Yes. Just on the factory there, I mean, The factory construction is going on. And we from the beginning, we had an objective to have it ready in 2021, but I think it's Rather be 2022 that it will be finished. And it will be the world's largest and most modern robotic factory in the world. So That's going to be a good support to the Chinese market, which is really doing well at the moment for us. Thank you so much. Thanks, Omidjell. Thank you. Thank you. And the next question will come from Matthias Holmbei at DNB. Your line should be open, Matthias. Thank you, and thanks for the time. I'm sorry to get back to this, but I still don't fully understand the 2021 guidance when you So you expect the comparable revenue growth to be in line with the target, which I then interpret as 3% to 5%. You also say that you expect the market to grow above 5% in 2023. So is this that you expect to grow less than the market in 2021? Or is it that you anticipate the market growth to be back end loaded, so less than 5% in 2021 and Above 5% mortgage growth in 2022 and 2023? I've been trying to make Mateo clear, but let's give Timo a chance So it is a little bit clear than I am. Yes. Thanks, Matthias. So as we are saying, the visibility to the short term part of The market is not exactly stellar at the moment. We can all understand that. And in our case, especially as Bjorn said, it depends quite a bit also on how the service business is coming back. So we are saying that at the moment, because we are saying this 3% to 5% range, we expect the growth to be, At this point in time, for 2021, slightly lower than the 5 year 5% for the 3 year period, I. E. A little bit lower growth now in the beginning and then picking up later. Of course, as Bjorn also said, if we see a better market this year, We are expecting to grow with the market or better, so it could be better as well, and that's why we say also broadly in line. So I don't think these are in contradiction, but that's our expectation now going into the year with this visibility. Thank you. That's clear. And one more. Beyond the support you expect from volume recovery, can you elaborate a bit on The most important items that you believe will drive the margin expansion year over year in 2021. Yes. I can do a little bit on that. I mean, this is, of course, the big focus and the whole setup and the foundation that we have been building during this year. And I think that's gone really smooth actually. We have the new setup, the decentralized with the businesses with full accountability. We introduced ScoreCard system, which is a performance management. There are thousands of activities out in the different businesses That is actually driving continuous improvements in the businesses. We take, as you've seen, a lot of restructuring costs also during this quarter and this And then, of course, our operations is getting a better fit going forward. So it is everything from pruning portfolio to closing factories, which we are doing in many parts of the world, as well as improving pricing and other activities. So we are driving them and then we think that the targets that we have set up, We are, of course, fully committed to them. And I think it's important from our perspective that you will be clearly seeing an improvement in the right direction Starting 2021. So coming from a challenging year, we're looking forward to an exciting 2021 for ABB. Thank you so much. Thank you. And then we follow-up with a question from Ben Uglow at Morgan Stanley. Please, Ben, are you on the line? Yes, I am. Good morning, everyone, and I hope everybody is safe and well. So Apologies for laboring the point on robotics, but I just I wanted to understand exactly how The team are thinking about it in terms of direction. If I look at the information that was given at the Capital Markets event in February, If I simplify it, the overall market addressable market for robotics was quoted at just under SEK 20,000,000,000, Of which roughly 20%, dollars 3,000,000,000 to $3,000,000,000 or so Was basically EV and the ICE portion going down. Am I correct in assuming that what you guys think Is that the addressable market overall for auto robots would come down. EV growth, but ICE comes down more. So that's the first part of the question. The second part is, if that's around half of what you do in the division, Is your assumption that you can kind of offset that with electronics in general industry? Is that the right way of thinking about it? Well, Ben, that's pretty detailed. When we look at the automotive industry, We're saying that the EV part of that business is increasing gradually, is going to be doing There we have, of course, a very strong position in most of these installations that are coming. So I think that will support us towards the to the automotive industry. What we have done, which I tried to be clear is that we take a little bit more cautious look on the automotive when it comes to these turnkey Solution where we have very few. So that's holding it down. So we, of course, see good opportunities in other segments, which actually moving quite dramatically. And we believe that, that will compensate for the lower sales within Automotive Industry. So yes, we are quite optimistic on that. But it's a combination here of that The margin on that low automotive side will be compensated with a higher margin Business from other segments. That's the importance. And that's how we're going to get back to the margin corridor also for the robotics. I don't know if that was clear enough there, but I'd be happy to give you a little bit more from Sami there. We can Connect you a little bit there into the details on the automotive side. No, thank you. I understand directionally how you guys are thinking. And one follow-up for Timo. Timo, I wanted to make sure I properly understood exactly what you guys are communicating On the cash flow, in the press release, the point that's made in the cash flow section is that ex The sort of one off effects this year, your continuing cash flow, as I understand it, would have been EUR 550,000,000 higher. So just doing sort of back of the envelope, basic math. If I take the 1.875 of continuing cash flow And add back the €550,000,000 on a pro form a basis, am I correct to assume that our sort of starting point for cash flow this Yes, it's about 2.425. Is that the right understanding? Thanks, Ben, for the question. No, I actually think you are a little Too conservative there because we are also saying that our restructuring, which is, Of course, in kind of like both of those comparable numbers, 2019 2020 goes down further 200,000,000. So if you turn that to cash, You would add NOK 200,000,000 into the cash. And then we're also expecting, as we discussed earlier, some growth and also profit improvement, which should also drop down, so should be better than that. Understood. Okay. But just pro form a for last year, our starting point is 2.6 or thereabouts Ex organic improvement basically. And then we have SEK750,000,000 of CapEx approximately to give us our free cash flow. Is that a fair Way to think about it. Yes, I would say 26, 27, and then perfect. That's very helpful. I can do my model now. Thank you very much. All right. Thanks, Ben. And now we see Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs. Are you on the line, Daniela? I'm on the line. Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. I'll ask 3 quick things. First, I mean, we've been hearing a lot about like shortages of And these are other components and high transportation costs and a lot of inflation. What can you elaborate like within your margin view for 2021, kind of how is the balance between this geyser inflation on raw material and input costs and pricing? Can you hear me? Daniela, please. I didn't really get your first part of the question. I understand some of the raw material you said, but you started the question with what? It's a semiconductor question. Yes. Okay. Yes, I mean looking forward, We mentioned in a couple of places in the press release that there are raw material increases That there will be some headwind going into 2021. We've been quite well hedged at the moment, And this will gradually work itself in. We, of course, our business taking mitigated actions, not least when it comes to Value based pricing, which is being quite active at the moment, of course, and a lot of other restructuring and restructuring efforts that are being taken. So from the margin perspective, I think you should look at following. Where are we today? Yes, I mean, if you add back Crusylen some of that non core things on the part, our basis is about 12% Running rate margin for the business. Then 2023, where I have promised, The other one, I promised them within a corridor, but I promised 15%. So you can see that gradually, we should see moving Equally in the direction towards the target of 2015. So you should clearly see that we are moving the right way When we are moving out of next year. I don't know if I can be more clear in my guide without telling you a number. Okay. Sure. And then just a question on the recovery we're starting to see on electrification. I Wondering if you could comment on distributor inventories, whether there has been any restocking or vice versa? No. I mean electrification is a great story coming back. And China is one of the strong driving Very, very strong driving force for the electrification business. So that have developed a little bit better both when it comes to The growth number as well as the margin number, which is quicker coming there. So Yes, I think they are on a good way towards the margin corridor, which they have committed to. We feel comfortable about that business. Okay. And one final question, kind of going back to the CMD in terms of the 3 businesses that are under divestment. I think you've mentioned one could Have potentially been could potentially be a spin, but given this taking slightly longer to maybe sell them, why not just spin them all? Yes. But now I don't think we take a longer time. I think we were pretty clear on that part. These three businesses are Really high value business, well performing in the market. But the only thing we said that we are not going to have any fire sales here or Any COVID discount on these businesses, so we're going to make sure that we get full paid for them. And the first one, which has been Extremely resilient in the downturn that's still performing fantastically during the whole COVID, that is the Dodge business. That's why we say that, that is probably the first one that we and we have actually started the process, and we should be doing that during the first Half the year, somewhere there. There is, of course, separation work that needs to be done and takes a little bit time. And we need, of course, our support from the advisers also to move it. But there is a big interest for this business and we start. The second one will probably turbocharging, which is also a very strong business, even though they have some effect From the service business, which is 75% of that business, a lot in the cruising industry where they have a lot of turbo on the engines, on the vessel engines, That's been hampered a little bit. So we want to see that business coming back a little bit. So that business will be fully valued. Then we don't really know if that is going to be a spin off or if we do sales of that one. That's a later decision that we will take. Understood. Thank you very much. Good. Thank you. Thank you, Daniela. And we'll finish off with A question from Andreas Willey at JPMorgan, please. Yes. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for your time. I have two questions, please. The first one On Machine Automation B and R, maybe you could talk a little bit more about what's going on there. We've had The management change at the end of the year. We had the goodwill write down in which we already discussed in Q3. You had this order reversion now in Q4. What's not gone right there that you want to put right now with new management? And the second question Is on price cost, particularly in electrification, but probably also in the motion side. You mentioned the raw materials. Are we going from kind of a net positive you had in the second half of twenty twenty, where Prices were resilient and raw materials were down to more of a neutral? Or do you expect actually to see a temporary negative price cost in the first half Of 2021. Okay. Let me start with the B and R, which is a great A business where we also seen a fantastic recovery during the last quarter when it comes to orders. So that looks quite exciting. Yes, we took some goodwill write off during that period. But maybe you remember this has been part of the transformation of ABB we're doing. All the goodwill was earlier centrally in the group, and we still have a lot of goodwill left here for Ewosso businesses that We are not really selling. And now when we move the goodwill out into the businesses because we want the businesses to carry the goodwill From their acquisition, we think that makes good sense. Then there was some goodwill, which was not really related to the B and R business. It's actually to another acquisition with earlier. And then we got the opportunity to, of course, offset that and write that off. So that's no Negative to the management of the B and R people. So they are totally free from that. On the order reverse side, yes, it's correct. We are changing manager, and hopefully, next week, we'll come out with a press release who will be the new head of that business. But the orders on hand, these are orders that were in the order book since long before, And that is actually being reversed. It's not even orders that we received last year, but even further back. Now we are taking that out of the book That would not be delivered and that was €50,000,000 So that is hitting them. So I wouldn't blame the management For any of these 2, maybe on the order side that could have maybe been cleaned up. But I think it's fair for the new guy who comes in When around this also that the orders on hand are fresh and sound. That's part of it. But Yes. We think the B and R business, you know from my perspective when we talk about this business, this is a business that we should be We're growing that business, but it should also be more profitable than we are today. And I think we need also to have a management to have the same ambition On this, and I think we will have that now. We'll take it to the level where it deserves to be. But otherwise, I think good position. And As I said in the report, we actually had a lot of wins when it comes to new OEM customers during the quarter. So Finally, we're getting some tailwind on this business Also now, it was a little bit challenging in the beginning of the year when the COVID was hitting, but we're pretty optimistic for the year to come. Does that explain it, Andreas? Is that good enough? Yes. Thank you. And on the price cost? Yes. On the electrification, yes, it's correct that last year, we reported that the price increases had a good impact, of course, in the improvements over the year. We've seen many of the mineral prices going up during the year, which is fantastic for the mining business. For being an old mining guy, It feels always good. But yes, for us, we'd have a lot of couplers in our products, both in electrification and in motion. Yes, it will have a negative effect. We're already seeing that, but we are hedged we're well hedged For this year, that's last year and in the beginning of this year, then you will see gradually come into the year. So they have been more aggressive start of the year to make sure that our pricing is in line to cover There is a risk, of course, that this will have a not as a positive thing on the price Comparison there, there might be some negative effects on the result from pricing compared to pricing Input from material side there for the year. But that is, of course, going to be compensated by the integration GIS and all the efforts that are being done by closing factories and getting the product portfolio approved and so on. So we should continue to see Good profit improvement of that business, in line with as we move forward. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. And with that, we close this session. Thank you for your attention. And if you have any additional follow-up, Please reach out to us in Investor Relations. And we all that remains is wish you another good quarter until we see you Tom? Thanks a lot all of you. Thank you.