Adecco Group AG (SWX:ADEN)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Nov 3, 2022

Benita Barretto
Head of Investor Relations, Adecco Group

Good morning. Thank you for joining the Adecco Group's webcast today. I'm Benita Barretto, the group's head of investor relations, and with me we have the Adecco Group CEO, Denis Machuel, and CFO, Coram Williams. Before we begin, we would like to draw your attention to the disclaimer on slide two. In today's presentation, we will be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results and operating metrics. This conference call will include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on assumptions as of today and are therefore subject to risks and uncertainties. Turning to slide three, today's agenda. We've set aside 40 minutes for Denis and Coram to review the Q3 results. After this, we will take a short 10-minute break. The webcast will restart at 10:20 A.M. with Denis and Coram providing a detailed update on the Adecco Group's business today and going forward.

From 11:00 A.M., Denis and Coram will host a Q&A session. During the morning, you are invited to send your questions via the Q&A entry box on the website. We also have a dial-in for those who prefer to ask their questions directly from 11:00 A.M. With time at a premium, let me now hand over to Denis and the Q3 results report.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Thank you, Benita, and welcome to all of you who've joined today's event. Let's move to slide five, which provides a snapshot of this quarter's financial performance. Revenues were EUR 6 billion, up 16% in reported terms and up 6% year-on-year on an organic trading days adjusted basis. Gross profits of EUR 1.27 billion were 5% higher organically. Gross margin was strong at 21%, 20 basis points higher. EBITA, excluding one-offs, was EUR 215 million with a robust EBITA margin of 3.6%. Adjusted EPS was EUR 0.90, down 17% year-on-year, reflecting mainly lower operating income. The cash conversion ratio was 46% due to normal working capital absorption. Pro forma net debt over EBITDA ended the quarter at 2.6 x.

This leverage stems from the acquisition of AKKA and is in line with management expectations. Turning to slide six and some selected highlights from the quarter, many of which we will detail later. Since joining, I have implemented several quick win measures to drive performance that have begun to bear fruit this quarter. Adecco's relative growth improved +500 basis points quarter-on-quarter, with the unit achieving market-leading growth versus its major competitors. In addition, Adecco's profitability was solid with a 4.2% EBITA margin and productivity up 3% sequentially. There is continued progress in the Adecco U.S. turnaround. Moving to our global business units, LHH has revamped its plan to deliver its strategy and profitable growth.

In Akkodis, synergy capture with AKKA is firmly on track with around 60 project wins secured since acquisition that will deliver over EUR 40 million of revenue synergies in 2023. Coram, over now to you to begin a more detailed review of financial performance in each GBU.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Thank you, Denis, and a warm welcome to everyone on the webcast this morning. Let me begin with slide seven and Adecco's solid Q3 performance. Revenues increased 6% year-on-year on an organic trading days adjusted basis. Flexible placement was 3% higher. Activity in high-value solutions was very strong, with perm revenues up 45% and outsourcing up 28%. Adecco's gross margin benefited from positive solutions, business mix, and dynamic pricing. The EBITA margin was solid at 4.2%. On a year-on-year basis, margin development reflects recent investments in headcount as well as lower benefit from special items, mainly in Adecco France. Moving to slide eight, which shows Adecco at the segment level. Revenues were up in all regions, supported by the investment plan. In France, revenues grew 7%, consistently ahead of market trends, underpinned by excellent performance in QAPA and onsite.

Manufacturing, autos, and healthcare sectors were notably strong. In Northern Europe, revenues were up 4%, led by the U.K., in which revenues rose 10%. The U.K. benefited from strong growth in finance and education and better dynamics in logistics. In the DACH region, performance was very strong, with revenues up 13%. Germany was up 11%, with strong returns on investment supported by an upturn in autos and strength in logistics and manufacturing. Revenues in Southern Europe and EE MENA rose 5%. In both Italy and Iberia, revenues were 6% stronger. In EE MENA, revenues rose 1%. Growth in the region was driven by the manufacturing and consulting sectors, although logistics remained soft. In the Americas, revenues were 1% higher. Latin America revenues were 14% stronger, led by Argentina and Brazil.

Excluding Mexico, which was still weighed by the impact of regulatory change, LATAM was up nearly 30%. In North America, revenues were 4% lower. Adecco U.S revenues improved 2% sequentially. Last but not least, revenues in APAC grew 9%. Australia and New Zealand were 9% lower, reflecting a tough comparison period. Japan and Asia, however, were very strong, up 12% and 18% respectively. IT tech and retail activities were notably healthy. Let me now hand back to Denis to elaborate further on Adecco's progress.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Thanks, Coram. Let's move to slide nine and our ongoing focus on gaining market share in Adecco. The business has delivered growth and incremental returns from its recent investments, with relative revenue improvement of 500 basis points sequentially versus its key competitors this quarter. Furthermore, Adecco has attained growth leadership this quarter versus its major competitors. On an end market basis, the largest drivers of growth this Q3 were autos and manufacturing, with a 150 to 200 basis points and 50 to a 100 basis points positive impact, respectively. Continued rebalancing in logistics, however, lowered the achieved growth rate by around 200 basis points. Overall, the business has successfully nurtured its growth levers. Adecco's sales intensity is up 26% year-on-year, supporting a 6% increase in the client base. High-value solutions activities were once again strong.

Digital advanced well, with QAPA delivering over 70% growth. Pricing initiatives were supportive and productivity improved 3% on a sequential basis. We recognize we have more to do. We have revised incentive schemes to support our market share ambition more clearly. We are remaining agile, optimizing investments according to market demand in select countries, and we are focused on driving productivity and performance improvement. Turning to slide 10 and the Adecco U.S. business. The U.S. turnaround is centered on five strategic initiatives, including a pivot toward higher growth end markets. I firmly believe we have the right strategy there, although the Q3 results was below where we would like it to be. On a positive note, there was further incremental evidence of improvements in key metrics this quarter. Revenues in Adecco U.S. were 2% better sequentially.

Revenues in priority growth sectors were up 5% year-on-year. Other operational metrics such as sales intensity, order fill rate, employee retention continue to show green shoots. Coram , back to you for LHH financials.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Moving to slide 11. Revenues in LHH were flat. On a segment basis, recruitment solutions revenues were flat, while gross profit was 7% higher, with fees from perm up 14%. Career transition revenues were 11% lower year-on-year. Learning and development grew 2%, led by EZRA, which grew revenues by 47%. Pontoon and other delivered a solid 7% growth, with Pontoon itself up 6% due to strength in MSP services and Hired up 22%. The EBITA margin of 3.7% was 390 basis points lower on an organic basis, with two main drivers. First, we've invested more in digital, mainly EZRA, as we work to scale the business and capture growth in the exciting digital coaching market. Second, contribution from recruitment solutions was lower. The business has seen market dynamics change during the quarter.

In career transition, the pipeline picked up, particularly in the U.S., but conversion from pipeline to revenues in this high margin business does take time. In perm, buoyant markets have decelerated, again, particularly in the U.S. and more specifically, U.S. tech. In addition, however, the competitive performance of recruitment solutions was not as strong as it should have been, and productivity is too low. Let me hand back to Denis to outline how we're responding.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Let's move to slide 12, and how LHH will accelerate the implementation of its strategy to become a truly end-to-end human capital transformation partner. Given Q3's result, we are squarely focused on driving productivity in recruitment solutions. Some right-sizing actions have already been taken and we will continue to adapt as necessary. Alongside, LHH will streamline its DNA and optimize the center of excellence within its business model. Further, a new delivery model for smaller countries has been signed off. This will ensure cost savings while allowing LHH to maintain its local presence in these territories. LHH will also continue to invest in digitalization and its digital platforms. At General Assembly, management will pivot the B2C bootcamp model to a hybrid learning model, as well as focus on its B2B talent offering. Coram, over to you now for Akkodis financial results.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Turning to Akkodis on slide 13. The business delivered another quarter of strong revenue growth, up 84% reported and 8% on an organic trading days adjusted basis. By region, Modis Americas grew 13% with its consulting business performing notably well. Modis APAC rose 11% led by tech talent, particularly in telecoms, manufacturing, and electronics sectors. EMEA was flat with solid growth in France and Germany, mitigated by a soft result in Eastern Europe. AKKA contributed EUR 404 million of revenues in the period, with excellent performance at Data Respons. On a standalone basis, AKKA revenues were up in high single digits, and margins were above pre-COVID levels. Akkodis EBITA margin was 5.7%. The margin was held back mainly by approximately EUR 4 million of IT infrastructure recovery costs related to Q2's cyber incident in AKKA.

On an underlying basis, margins were around Q2 levels.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

With slide 14, let's spend the next moments on Akkodis Germany, which accounts for approximately 15% of Akkodis revenues. In the last couple of quarters, both Modis and AKKA have faced headwinds in Germany from a highly competitive talent market. With this in mind, as AKKA and Modis integrate, we are taking the opportunity to accelerate pivoting the business to Smart Industry to improve growth and profitability, even in a talent scarce market. Following a review of operations, key actions include a relentless focus on attracting talent with some green shoots in new hires during the latter part of Q3. Adapting the location of branches and offices to sites that are more attractive to consultants and closer to innovation and tech centers. Cultivating a more flexible cross-country delivery approach and shifting traditional mechanical engineering activities offshore.

On top, SG&A will be streamlined, including through optimization of existing centers of excellence, driving higher margins. Now moving to slide 15. The AKKA integration is firmly on track. A strong culture is being developed and plans for the combined organizational structure have been finalized. Further, part of AKKA's U.S. operations, with annual revenues of approximately $250 million, will be transferred to Adecco U.S. from January 1st, 2023. The assets being transferred are staffing activities. Such action strengthens the strategic focus of both Akkodis and Adecco. A handful of contracts in Germany with low profitability are also being reviewed at this juncture. Turning to synergy delivery. Revenue synergy capture has been very good. We have won above EUR 40 million of revenue synergies for 2023 and around 60 projects since acquisition. Two of these wins are shown on the slide.

First, a multi-year consulting contract for a large mobility sector player. Akkodis digital engineers will build cloud native IoT solutions, providing actionable analytics to the customer. For example, analytics that predict and prevent failures and that enable better inventory management. Second, a multi-year partnership with a major OEM, where Akkodis digital engineers will design an intelligent cockpit, integrating smart technologies with multiple driving functions, creating a more interactive and user-friendly driving experience. In terms of total synergies, the vast majority of 2022 synergy target will be delivered this Q4. We expect a year-end synergy run rate of over EUR 40 million in EBITA terms, putting us firmly on track to deliver 2023's target. Let's now return to the group results. Coram.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

On slide 16, we consider the main drivers of gross margin on a year-on-year basis. Flexible placement had a 60 basis points negative impact, of which approximately 30 basis points impact comes from lower special items relative to the prior year period. Permanent placement had a 60 basis points positive impact, reflecting higher volumes and fee levels. Career transition was 20 basis points lower, while contribution from outsourcing, consulting, and other was 10 basis points higher. In total, the gross margin was down 10 basis points on an organic basis, but up 20 basis points on an underlying basis. At 21%, it is a strong result. Moving to the EBITA bridge on the right-hand of the slide. On a reported basis, gross margin gains were fully mitigated by increases in SG&A.

On an organic basis, SG&A expenses were 12% higher year-over-year, closely aligned to headcount, with FTEs also up 12%. There are three main drivers for the EBITA margin move from 4.8% to 3.6%. First, recent investments in sales capacity to accelerate growth, mainly in Adecco of about 40 basis points. The investment plan is now complete and headcount was broadly stable sequentially. Looking forward, investment will be highly selective. Second, a lower contribution from LHH, mainly from recruitment solutions as well as digital investments of around 30 basis points. Finally, lower benefit from special items. Let's move to slide 17, which shows positive momentum in conversion ratios and productivity for the group. The left-hand chart shows the group's Q3 conversion ratio at 17%, slightly higher relative to H1, and Adecco's Q3 conversion ratio at a healthy 26%.

The right-hand side shows the group's productivity modestly improved, led by Adecco, up 3% sequentially. Looking forwards, all else being equal, as employees become fully productive, growth will accelerate and margins improve. Turning to slide 18 and the near-term outlook. As the left-hand chart shows, 60% of the group in revenue terms exited Q3, growing over 6% year-over-year. The September exit rate for the group was 6%, indicating continued healthy demand for talent services. The group also saw marginally lower volumes in October, reflecting the current macroeconomic environment. In addition, we expect Q4 gross margin and SG&A expenses to trend around Q3 2022's reported level. Let's move to slide 19 and the current market context. We continue to live in uncertain times. Economic activity is slowing, but the depth and extent of any possible downturn is unknown.

At the same time, the group has seen continued demand for talent amid ongoing tightness in labor markets. A recent U.S. survey expresses the dynamism of talent markets well. 38% of CEOs view talent acquisition and retention as a real challenge to their business, and 64% of companies are increasing wages. Meanwhile, 52% of companies surveyed are instituting hiring freezes and half are reducing headcount. The Adecco Group is at the center of all these developments with its uniquely diversified portfolio of talent services. Furthermore, the business model has inherent strengths. With a highly flexible cost base, the group has a track record of delivering a 50% recovery ratio and an over 3% EBITA margin during highly challenging periods, such as those seen during the COVID pandemic.

Our cash flow is counter-cyclical and our financial structure is robust, and the business mix is less cyclical than previously. Moreover, we are ready to manage any possible economic slowdown to emerge stronger on the other side. As you would expect, we will remain agile with sales capacity and focused on productivity. We will tightly manage operating costs and work to lock in synergies from AKKA. We will also drive cash flow supported by strict DSO management.

Benita Barretto
Head of Investor Relations, Adecco Group

Thank you, Coram. With that, let us conclude the first part of today's presentation, and we invite you to take a break. We will return shortly to present the group's plan to build on current performance.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Welcome back to review. Now, we move to the second part of today's session and the business update. I will begin my assessment of where the group is positioned today, starting with slide 23. Over the last 100 days, I have immersed myself in the group's operations, visiting our people, visiting clients in many countries. I've come away from these visits encouraged by the strength of our business. We operate in an exciting industry with an addressable market of EUR 700 billion, growing around 5% each year. Our people are talented. They are highly committed, and the culture is very entrepreneurial. The group is purpose-driven, and our purpose to make future work for everyone inspires and connects all of us. We have a strong portfolio of innovative talent solutions and services, a very strong client base, and we have a world-leading business.

Each of our GBUs is number one or number two in its specialty, and each offers a compelling value proposition to customers. We also have the right strategy, Future at Work, which is ready to be accelerated. Let's turn to slide 24. Since embarking on Future at Work, firm progress has been made. The group has implemented its brand-led approach, and there are strong global business unit strategies in place. Over the last nine months, we have delivered a significantly improved relative growth rate, particularly in Adecco. Growth in the group's digital platforms, QAPA, Adia, EZRA, and Hired has been excellent. On a combined basis, our digital platforms grew Q3 revenues 45% year-on-year, reaching an annual revenue run rate of over EUR 200 million. The Adecco DACH business has been turned into a high-growth, high-profit business, and the U.S. turnaround is progressing.

The group has clearly benefited from introducing a dynamic pricing strategy, and gross margins have stepped up as the portfolio mix shifts towards higher margin activities. AKKA's integration and synergy capture is on track. Moving to slide 25. While recognizing the significant accomplishments, the group's financial performance has been mixed. The chart on the left hand maps the group segments, assessing gross margin growth and EBITA margins in each unit at present. We can see that a large proportion, 60% of the group is in a strong position, growing above market rate with solid margin contribution. However, we have 20% of the group where we must work to improve the growth and/or margin performance. We have 10% of the group in turnaround, namely Adecco U.S., and 10% is in integration or startup mode.

There is a substantial value creation opportunity embedded in the portfolio that we must and will unlock. Let's turn to slide 26. During my first 100 days, I've been able to assess what is working and what is not. Before we can fully deliver, we need to address five problem areas across the group that are weighing on our performance. Let me spend a few moments on each. First, organizational complexity. In the past, countries would manage their businesses independently, but that's not how we can operate in today's world because clients who demand a global service make up more than 20% of the group revenues. Therefore, the group introduced the GBU structure, which is a good one.

However, as we transformed, we have made the organization too complex with too much remote decision-making, duplication of layers and roles, and most of all, a too broad transformation effort that has lessened our customer focus and created disruption within the business. Second, performance management has been both complex and lacking in consistent KPIs to drive the business. Third, the business has been overly focused on the EBITA percentage when profitability needs to be reached through the correct balance of revenue growth and profit growth. Fourth, the sales standards and processes can be too rigid, and pipeline management, as well as customer retention, is not as strong as it should be. Fifth, the business is working with a lot of legacy IT systems and digital product management is not yet fully matured. While we have promising digital platforms, they are not yet fully scaled.

Having identified these five common areas, the executive team and I have enacted several quick wins this Q3 to improve agility, enhance focus, and begin to simplify. However, it is clear that we have more to do. Let me detail our plan on how we will reach our full potential, which we call Future at Work Reloaded. Future at Work Reloaded because we keep Future at Work as our strategy, which we reload and adjust to address the challenges the businesses has been facing. Let's turn to slide 28. We have begun a group-wide program to drive change centered on three levers, simplify, execute, and grow. These levers address the common challenges and will supercharge the group's performance. Moving to slide 29 and our first lever, simplify. The group will improve organizational effectiveness by simplifying the way it works.

The organization will be right-sized and transformation initiatives simplified. Among the measures actioned to date, we implemented a hiring freeze in October, and we have launched a systematic review of operations to eliminate redundancies and duplication. Going forward, we will streamline the group's operating model. We will also materially reduce the group's transformation workload and shift transformation efforts from group to GBUs and local level, giving priority to projects according to local and customer needs. Simplification will enable the group to lower general and administrative expenses or G&A. Today, we are announcing a target to deliver EUR 150 million G&A cost savings.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Let's look at this target more closely on slide 30. EUR 150 million of savings requires cutting total G&A by over 15% from current levels. Savings will be generated by eliminating duplication and redundancies and improving internal processes across the company. We will right-size the organization, optimize procurement, and significantly cut services from external providers. There is scope to optimize our footprint in the new work from home and flexible working environment. The program will be implemented at all levels across the group, and we will track progress to ensure the reduction in overheads is both real and sustainable. We expect to deliver these EUR 150 million of savings in run rate terms by mid-2024.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Let's move to slide 31 and our second lever, execute. The group will empower decision-making by those closest to customers at the GBU and local level to improve execution. We have introduced a more systematic and rigorous performance management framework to drive efficiency and accountability, accompanied by the introduction of standardized operational KPIs to increase transparency. Looking forward, the GBU strategies as outlined when the group announced Future at Work are unchanged. However, we will adjust the group's operating model, allowing for stronger local empowerment within strengthened group guardrails. In addition, IT and digital functions will be redesigned to deliver speed, better utilization, and value at stable investment levels of approximately 2% of group revenues. We will also improve customer delivery in all the GBUs by reinforcing delivery discipline and improving the systems the group's delivery teams rely on.

Moreover, we will invest to develop our people, building a collaborative, transparent, and high-performance culture with absolute focus on clients and candidates. Our third lever, grow, is shown on slide 32. The group will prioritize ways to grow market share, balancing a revenue and EBITA growth focus. We have already adjusted H2 sales incentives to drive growth. In a similar way, 2023 incentive plans for the group will focus on profitable growth with fewer and simpler targets. Looking forward, management of the group's largest clients will be refined with global teams concentrating on a few premium strategic accounts to drive growth and innovation at scale. Customer retention will have a greater emphasis with new training programs used to improve sales standards. In addition, accompanying the redesign of IT and digital functions, the group will prioritize digital products development that improves the candidate and client experience and overall customer satisfaction.

Alongside, we will aggressively scale our innovative digital platforms by combining its online coaching platform, EZRA, with LHH's traditional coaching activities. We will add growth to the GBUs by accelerating the deployment of Pontoon's market leadership MSP offering in a smarter way. Turning to slide 33. Let me be clear. The GBUs remain at the core of the group, each with a clear and differentiating strategy and now armed with the tools to accelerate execution, as you see on the slide. At the same time, each GBU draws strong benefit from being within the Adecco Group and with the group's roles clarified today. The group sets strategy and targets and enforces group-wide governance, policies, and processes. It allocates capital and talent, drives performance, and orchestrates the ecosystem. The group supports shared services at scale and provides a common purpose, values, and vision uniting all of us.

Let's move now to slide 34 to explore how the group is orchestrating the ecosystem to drive synergies from its strategic accounts. The group has a global strategic enterprise team that is focused on customers that draw on services from across the group. Over the last 12 months, the sales pipeline for this team has improved 34%. In Q3, revenues from these strategic customers were up high single digit with gross profits up double digit. Over 45% of these strategic clients have increased relative exposure to LHH and/or Akkodis so far this year. In particular, we recently won a landmark contract valued at AUD 1 billion over six years as the recruitment partner for the Australian Defence Force from the Australian government. This mandate is Adecco-orientated and was powered by our ability to offer tech and AI knowledge with Akkodis.

In short, there is a very encouraging momentum in our strategic accounts. Let's move to slide 35. We intend to implement the vast majority of the actions we've outlined by mid-2023. Several quick wins are in place to support H2 2022 performance, while clear delivery milestones for the next three quarters have been set. Each action is accompanied by targets and KPIs so that we can closely track progress and ensure delivery. We look forward to updating you on progress in the quarters ahead. Let me now hand over to Coram for the financial perspective.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Thank you, Denis. Moving to slide 36 and the group's financial and sustainability goals. The simplify, execute, and grow levers will deliver improved execution and market leadership. We are confident that this plan can deliver an underlying improvement in the profitability of the business. Consequently, we are reinforcing the group's financial goals with a target to achieve an EBITA margin of around 6%. Slide 37 shows the path to around 6% from our current margin levels. The group has already significantly shifted its mix into higher margin activities. Here on, we focus on securing EUR 150 million of G&A cost savings from across the group and, in addition, improving delivery in each GBU. In Adecco, we expect more operating leverage and productivity gains, as well as an improvement in weaker units such as Adecco U.S., to deliver margins in the mid-5% territory.

In LHH, we expect margins to move towards the upper end of its corridor, driven by productivity gains, particularly in recruitment solutions, but also in career transition. We further expect the business to successfully scale its high growth digital platforms. In Akkodis, we will integrate AKKA and Modis successfully and deliver AKKA synergies, as well as capturing the growth opportunity in smart industry consulting. As with LHH, we expect Akkodis to deliver margins close to the upper end of its corridor. We recognize that the current macroeconomic environment is uncertain and that the business is not immune from the economic cycle. Should we enter a downturn as the actions we're taking gather momentum, we should be in better shape to weather the storm, and in a supportive economic environment, the group will reach the 6% level. Let's move to slide 38. The group's capital allocation policies are unchanged.

Firstly, funding organic growth. Secondly, the commitment to a progressive dividend policy and to distribute a dividend per share, at least in line with the prior year. If we have surplus cash, we will consider either M&A or returning excess cash to shareholders. In terms of M&A, we will consider potential acquisitions where they accelerate the strategy realization. We're a better owner. In other words, we can deliver cost and revenue synergies. We can achieve positive EVA within three years, and we have management capacity for integration. As we said at the Capital Markets Day, we're focused on smaller scale bolt-on, bolt-off deals. Denis, back to you.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Thanks, Coram. Future at Work Reloaded. Today, we've set out a number of impactful actions that will unlock the group's potential and create value for all stakeholders. The group has a clear go-to-market strategies for each business unit, which are complementary to each other, and we are unified by a common purpose. Looking forward, we will be a globally brand-led and customer-centric organization using an operating model that empowers decision-making at the local level to ensure greater accountability and speed. Let me now conclude on slide 14. Above all, the executive committee and myself are committed to improving the group's financial performance. We will build on our current resilient performance despite macroeconomic challenges. The simplify, execute, and grow levers will deliver improved execution and market leadership.

Simplification will secure EUR 150 million of G&A cost savings in run rate terms by mid-2024. Successful implementation of our plan will position the Adecco Group as a talent powerhouse with the anticipated performance improvement expressed through the group's strengthened EBITA margin commitment to achieve 6%. Thank you for your time, and let's now open the lines for Q&A.

Benita Barretto
Head of Investor Relations, Adecco Group

Operator, we're ready for the first question, please.

Operator

The first question comes from Sarli Simona from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Simona Sarli
Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

Yes. Good morning, gentlemen, and thanks for your presentation. One question, first of all, on North America. You mentioned that you made some progress with the turnaround. However, if you look at organic revenue index to 2019, there is actually a sequential deceleration, and we saw some margins moving into a negative territory. Could you please explain what was the driver behind that and if we should expect margins to return back to a positive territory in Q4? The second question is regarding cash conversion. Still, quite soft in Q3, and if you look also at days of sales outstanding, it looks like it is sequentially increasing. If you could also explain and elaborate a little bit more on that. Thank you.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Thank you, Simona. I'll take the first one, maybe Coram will take the second one. Regarding North America, you know, North America is a very important market for the group and of course, for Adecco in particular. Akkodis is doing well and, you know, we have some work to do in Adecco. We are all hands on deck on that. I just want to be absolutely clear. It's on my, you know, top priority list. We have been there several times since I joined, and we have a solid action plan. We're, you know, we see, you know, our operational actions delivering results. Operational KPIs are improving. You know, sales intensity, number of visits per FTE have improved. You know, retention of our staff has improved. Order fill rate has improved.

We have, as you know, a particular program to develop growth in particular sectors, in our growth sectors. We are delivering, you know, 5% growth in those sectors. If I exclude, you know, COVID-related contracts that have been ending, we have an underlying growth in this, in these sectors of 15%. The trend is good. We are, you know, breakeven. We've done a sequential improvement of 2% Q3 over Q2. Are we there, where we wanna be? No. It's still gonna take time. I'm absolutely committed to turn this around. If I take the example of what we've done in Germany, you know, we were in a tough situation a couple of years ago.

We now have Germany at 11% growth. I mean, this demonstrates that we can turn situation around, and we will. It's gonna take time, but we are all hands on deck.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Let me pick up now on the DSO and the cash conversion. On the DSO, there has been a small increase sequentially on DSO. There are two drivers of that. The first is the mix of business, and in particular, the logistics business, which, as you know, has been a source of growth for us, but is now the only sector that's actually been declining in Q3 that has very rapid payment terms. There's a mix effect that is happening there. The second aspect on DSO is the residual effect of the AKKA cyberattack.

We were very clear when we were responding to that cyberattack that we were prioritizing getting consultants back up and running, driving the utilization rate back up, making sure they could work for our clients, and we've taken a little longer to get the invoicing and the collection processes back up to speed. They're now fixed, so I would expect an improvement in that in Q4. It's a combination of the mix and the residual effect from AKKA. On cash, DSO is part of the reason for a slightly lower cash conversion sequentially. By far the biggest effect is the working capital absorption that comes because of the growth that we're generating. You know that in this business, particularly when Adecco is growing, it tends to absorb working capital, and that brings our cash conversion down.

Obviously, when the business is stable, then the cash conversion starts to rise, and if we find ourselves in a downturn, then the cash conversion is very high. It's normal working capital absorption. Remember that the third quarter is our strongest quarter of growth this year, both for the group as a whole and for Adecco. There is a significant working capital effect. The third piece of cash conversion, again, much smaller than the working capital impact, is the integration costs that we're incurring to drive the synergy realization in AKKA. They are below the line. Obviously, they are cash out of the door, so that impacts the conversion. I want to be very clear, though. There is no structural issue. This is the impact of the working capital.

It's the temporary impact of the residual effects of the AKKA cyberattack and the ongoing integration costs.

Operator

The next question comes from Sylvia Barker from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Sylvia Barker
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Thank you. Hi, morning. I'll take the questions one by one, if that's okay. Firstly, on Americas. Within that, Americas number, can you split out the North America losses? Now that you're moving the AKKA $250 million into that business, can you give us the profit for that business? Can you just make it clear whether that will be included in organic or excluded in the beginning of next year? Thank you.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Let me pick up on those. We don't break out the profitability within the different parts of the Americas. Overall, as you've seen, it's breakeven. That means a modest loss in the U.S. business. To Denis's point, you know, the key here is to continue with the delivery of the plan to drive top-line growth, which will turn into operating leverage and profitability. I really think Germany's example is a very good example of what we can do. Because if you look at it, you know, we're now at 11% growth in Germany with a very healthy profit margin. Staying the course, accelerating the delivery of the plan, and driving growth and share gain will improve the profitability in that business.

On the $250 million transfer of the business from AKKA to Adecco, this is a business which sits much more effectively with Adecco. We strongly believe, you know, we will benefit from the strategic focus that Adecco can bring to it, and that will drive synergies over time. I'm not gonna give an exact profit number on that $250 million, but I think you should assume that the margin is around the Adecco GBU average. It is decently profitable business, and obviously we will show you to the third part of your question, the movement as a portfolio movement within the results, so that you can isolate underlying growth and the impact of the transfer.

Sylvia Barker
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Okay, great. Thank you. Second point on the EUR 150 million of savings, and then on the German program as well. Can you just give us an idea of the timing of achieving these savings, and then what should we pencil in for the cost of these, and when should we include these costs in our models, please?

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Let me give an overview of what we're doing in Germany, and then, Coram, you can concentrate on the overall cost savings program.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Sure.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

I think Germany, you know, is a country of importance. You know, I would say that when we highlighted the topic for Akkodis overall is a great business. We have a specific situation here in Germany. You know, three topics were on the table. First, we've been faced with a little bit of headwinds on linked to talent scarcity. Attrition and recruitment have been a bit tough, and we're really working hard on this one. Second, we had some legacy projects particularly around engineering that we thought were not fully optimized. We are now reviewing this portfolio and moving to offshore some, you know, the delivery of some of those projects.

Typically, to give you an example, we have body-in-white, mechanical and engineering projects that would be much better housed and delivered from a more, you know, cost-effective location. We're moving this offshore. At the same time, we are ramping up the smart industry business. We also are reviewing a few of our projects or a handful of contracts which are not at the profitability level that we want, and my first priority is to turn them around. You know, I'm asking the team to really, you know, negotiate, adjust the scope so that we return them to profitability. That's for the specific situation of Germany.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Thanks, Denis. Let me cover the wider question on the G&A cost savings. EUR 150 million of savings to be achieved in run rate terms by the middle of 2024, which represents a little bit more than 15% of our total G&A of our G&A cost base. In terms of where they're coming from, you know, there are a couple of things. As we've moved to the GBU structure, which is absolutely the right structure in terms of how we manage the business, how we respond to clients, how we focus on their particular needs, there has been some duplication of cost. It's inevitable when you make that kind of move. Secondly, we've been going through a functional transformation, particularly in our back office. That's in some cases, that leads to dual running costs.

It leads to costs to get, for example, shared service centers up and running. Also there are other areas in which we can make savings, for example, procurement, the use of third-party providers, and indeed even our footprint in terms of the sort of offices that we have and the space we use, particularly because ways of working have changed, post-COVID. In terms of how we're gonna get at that, there are really two phases to it. The first is a little bit more tactical, you know, getting on with that right now, where we can find areas where, you know, the duplication or the dual running costs we can reduce quickly or even make some procurement savings, step back our use of third-party providers.

The second part of this is a bit more involved, and it goes back to the points that Denis was making in terms of simplification, of really looking at our operating model, really looking at what is being done where, and doing it in a very granular way to make sure that we can action sustainable efficiencies and savings. That second phase is gonna take a bit longer. It's not something that you can or should do in a rush. For that reason, the savings will be a little bit more back-end loaded. You will see benefits during 2023, but it is a bit more back-end loaded. Not gonna put a precise split on this at the moment because I think we have to work through that second phase. Clearly, we will communicate more as we go.

In terms of one-off costs, again, I think we really need to get through that second phase to give you a precise steer. Generally, good rule of thumb is one for one. You know, roughly EUR 150 million of one-off costs to generate those savings. We will obviously try and bring it in for less than that, but I think that's probably a good placeholder. Whilst, you know, that will also be phased over 2023 and the first half of 2024, they tend to happen a little bit faster than the savings. It's just the nature of this kind of program. I hope that gives you a sense of how to think about it, and obviously we'll talk more as we go over the coming quarters.

Sylvia Barker
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Yeah, that's very helpful. Thank you for the extra color around it. Anything additional for the German program specifically that we need to pencil in as one-off or?

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

I think there will be some one-offs. Obviously not at the same scale that we've just talked about for the general program. I think we have to work through that over the coming months, and we'll give you a sense. You know, there will be some one-offs.

Sylvia Barker
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Okay, thank you. Just final very quick one, just on net debt to EBITDA. Again, 2.6 x, I guess Simona asked about the cash conversion. Can you just remind us a little bit, what is the guidance now on net debt to EBITDA and how that develops over the next few quarters? Can you maybe just talk about the working capital impact of AKKA specifically, kind of where does the factoring sit? What was their working capital dynamic over the last couple quarters?

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Let me cover AKKA first and then I'll talk more generally about the balance sheet and the deleveraging. I mean, on AKKA, to be clear, what I was referencing in terms of DSO was a short-term residual impact of the cyberattack. You know, it was significant in Q2, and we had to shut down the systems in the whole of AKKA Europe in order to respond to it. I think we responded very effectively. You know, I mentioned in my script that we delivered 7% or sort of high mid-to-high single digits growth on a standalone basis in AKKA and margins are back above pre-COVID levels. Gives you a sense that that business has recovered.

There is a residual effect on DSO because it's taken us longer to get the billing systems and the collections back up to speed. That is not a structural problem, and I would expect the AKKA DSO to come back down to the kind of levels that we've seen in the group. It doesn't have a materially different cash or working capital profile. Cash conversion in that business is more second half weighted than first half weighted, but I don't think it fundamentally changes the way that you should think about modeling the group's cash and working capital. On the balance sheet, leverage at 2.6x net debt to EBITDA is exactly where we would expect it to be at this point. As you know, it's driven by the AKKA acquisition.

While it's higher than it's been in the past, we are comfortable in terms of managing that balance sheet. The balance sheet is robust. 70% of the debt is fixed at very attractive interest rates that we would not get now. We have, as you know, no covenants on the debt. We have a very nicely balanced bond maturity profile, and we have very strong liquidity because we have... You know, the business generates cash, and as I've said, that will improve over time when we get past the working capital impact of the growth. We have an untapped EUR 900 million revolving credit facility. I think the balance sheet is in robust health. We are committed to deleveraging. Our longer term target is 1x net debt to EBITDA.

I think you will see us systematically deleverage over the coming quarters. It will probably take 18-24 months to get to a point where we're back down to that 1x net debt to EBIT, EBITDA target. We're committed to it and we don't see any impediments to it. In the meantime, cash conversion on the business is good and, you know, no structural issues. To be clear, we will absolutely be able to pay the dividend. I think there's one other question. I'm sorry this is a very long answer, but there were a few questions in there. On AKKA, I think you also mentioned factoring. We do continue to factor in AKKA. That program is about EUR 150 million-EUR 200 million.

It's been in place for a very long time. It's an active part of how they manage. Those factoring programs are now back up and running, and that will be part of helping us to collect the cash. It's a relatively modest part of the overall Adecco Group balance sheet.

Sylvia Barker
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Suhasini Varanasi from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Suhasini Varanasi
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Just a couple from me, please. You mentioned that the volume softened a little bit in October. Would you call out? Is it possible to give some color on any verticals or countries that you would probably highlight, or was it general softening overall? Secondly, when it comes to the G&A savings program, I also noticed that you are investing in IT. Is it possible to give some sense on how much of these savings will need to be reinvested either in IT or other parts of your organization? How much will actually stick and drive higher margins? Thank you.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

I'll cover both of those.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Yeah, please.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

So in terms of the October volumes, as you know, we don't typically break them out by country or by sector because, you know, it's very much something that we're seeing on a real-time basis. Our exit rate coming out of September was 6%. The October volumes are marginally lower. Now, to be clear, they're still, you know, in revenue terms, it's still growing year-on-year. This is not that we've tipped from growth into decline. We are still seeing growth, but they're marginally lower than that 6% exit rate. We felt it was important just to highlight that to you. I think it's a reflection of the macroeconomic uncertainty. Remember, that's not uniform.

You know, one of the features I think of the current environment is that there is good growth, strong growth in plenty of territories, plenty of sectors. Denis has described this. I've touched on it, you know, there is talent scarcity and a very dynamic labor market. In terms of the G&A savings, I want to be really clear they will drop through to the bottom line. This is a net savings number. It is a net savings number. We are very determined to deliver that because we feel that while the drivers of the cost increases that we've seen over the past couple of years, you know, were necessary and valid to drive the business forward, there is simplification.

We can take out duplication, and there are a number of areas where we can generate savings and efficiencies that we want to see in the bottom line. The business has plenty of investment. We're not having to starve that investment, but equally, we don't need to drive it through reinvestment of those savings. It's a saving that will drop through to the bottom line. You mentioned IT. I want to pick up on a point that Denis made in his script. We invest just over 2% of our revenues into IT and digital. We think that's about the right level. There may need to be some recalibration within that as to where the investment goes, but it is the right level, and therefore, the savings are coming from elsewhere in G&A.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Yeah. To complement what you said, I'm very committed to ensuring that tech is an integral part of how we move forward. I mean, with those two pillars, the IT systems and of course, the digital agility. All this and the redesign that I was talking about earlier, being really meant at prioritizing the way we approach our customers and our candidates because that's where we can create high value and much better stickiness. Now, for the next question, I suggest that we take some questions from the online platform.

Benita Barretto
Head of Investor Relations, Adecco Group

Excellent. Good.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Benita.

Benita Barretto
Head of Investor Relations, Adecco Group

We have quite a few. Some have been covered already. I'll just do two for now, and then we'll go back to the dial-in mode. First question, hybrid strategy. Do we plan on issuing further hybrids as part of the capital structure? Second question: Would a recession not make paying a dividend of EUR 400 million, and that would be the total cash distribution, difficult?

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

I think those are probably both for me.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Yep.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

In terms of the hybrid, as you know, we did issue a hybrid as part of the balanced financing package that we issued in order to fund AKKA. We felt it was an important component of that. To be clear, we don't have any plans to issue further hybrids. You know, as I've touched on, I think we're comfortable that the balance sheet is robust, but clearly, we are going to deleverage over time to get back to our 1x net debt to EBITDA target ratio. On the question of recession and a dividend, I think it's really important that I remind us that we were the only one of our peers that paid a dividend during the COVID.

You know, we had made clear that our dividend was recession-proof and that we underpin it with a commitment to pay at least in line with what we paid in the previous year, and we delivered on that in 2020. We're absolutely confident we can do that again should we face a downturn, and there are a couple of reasons for that. One, the portfolio in the business, some of it is procyclical, but some of it is also countercyclical. Our career transition business, for example, does very well in downturns, and our Akkodis business is later cycle than the rest. There is an inherent hedge within some of the portfolio. Secondly, and I touched on this in my answer to the cash conversion question.

You know, when we are growing, it tends to bring cash conversion down because we absorb working capital. Actually, in a recession or a downturn, the business, particularly in Adecco, releases working capital, and that means our cash conversion rates become very, very strong. We saw this in 2020 and early 2021. We had cash conversion rates of 150%, 160%. That countercyclical cash flow is very, very helpful. Thirdly, you know, we've touched on this in our remarks. This is a business which is agile and flexible. If we need to, we can manage the cost base in a very agile way. In the COVID downturn, which was very steep and very rapid, we achieved a recovery ratio of 50%.

In other words, for every lost euro of gross profit, we saved EUR 0.50 or more on the bottom line, and we delivered a margin in the trough of 3.6%. You know, I think we've proved the resilience of the business for a number of reasons, and we're therefore confident about our ability to pay the dividend.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

All right. Let's now go back to the conference call.

Operator

The next question comes from Anvesh Agrawal from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Anvesh Agrawal
VP, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. Hi. Good morning. I got two questions, both sort of, one is SG&A related and the cost-saving program. First, just on the SG&A guide of flat sequentially in Q4 versus Q3. Within that, you got savings coming in from AKKA of around EUR 20 million because all of them are back-loaded, which essentially means your underlying SG&A goes up. Then there is a hiring freeze, as we understand. I was wondering what's the moving part there? Maybe if you want to take that first.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

In terms of the SG&A, remember, not all of the AKKA synergy benefit comes from SG&A.

Anvesh Agrawal
VP, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

There's also a revenue component to this. I'm not sure you can just apply the EUR 20 million to the SG&A base. There's obviously a small amount there. The hiring freeze, you know, does have an impact. I think what we're trying to give you a sense of is that the investment plan is now largely complete. Our head count is stable on a sequential basis. We saw that from Q2 to Q3, and therefore, when you're modeling this, just assume it's broadly stable. There are some ins and outs, but I think it's the right way to think about the P&L.

Anvesh Agrawal
VP, Morgan Stanley

Okay. All right. That's clear. On the cost saving program, one of the issues historically has been the under-investment and then sort of focus on margins over growth. This year you sort of embark on this journey of sort of investing in the head count, and we've seen the SG&A picking up. Now you sort of go into another cost saving program. Denis, more of a question for you really, like, how do you balance and you don't overdo the cost saving and then when you come out of the other side of the downturn and we find a business that is again, sort of grappling for growth and investment. Just wondering, how do you balance that and what are your thoughts there?

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Yeah, thanks, Anvesh. I absolutely understand your question. I think. Let's be clear. We are not in a high margin business, right? Which means we absolutely need to have competitiveness embedded in how we are structured. A big chunk of the cost savings program is about right-sizing the organization and ensuring that we put the resources at the right place. We mutualize what we can, and we put the resources as close to the business, as close to the customer as possible. So it's really being fit in the way we operate from a G&A perspective. This is something that we will keep doing because, you know, I mean, those costs have to be constantly under watch.

Now, we'll do that at pace because that will help us remain competitive no matter what happens on the market. Now, on the sales part, I would say, the muscle, the development muscle that we have, you know, we will be extremely careful, and we have plans across the board, across the countries and the GBUs to adjust according to market conditions. Typically, at the moment, we continue to invest in regions where we have a strong dynamic. I mean, Japan is growing double-digit. Germany is growing 11%. U.K. is growing 10%. LATAM is, if you exclude Mexico, at 30%. In these regions, we continue to invest, but we very carefully, you know, watch the market trends.

I mean, week per week, we look at how things are going, how sectors are moving. We will adjust. If we have headwinds, we will adjust. I don't want to cut muscle across the board, which exactly to your point, would prevent us from rebounding, when, you know, on the other side of a possible economic downturn. We will be, I would say, super surgical in the way we adjust, you know, the cost base on the sales part to ensure that we're still in a good shape no matter what. I just want to highlight one thing. In times of downturn, we can also gain market share. I've been very clear with the teams. There is what we control and there's what we don't control.

We don't control macroeconomic environment, but we control the way we compete with our, you know, competitors. We control the way we address our clients. We control the way we retain our clients. We control the way we attract our candidates. This is how we can even in, let's say, more difficult times, still win on the market and still outperform our competitor, which is the best way to show that you are at your, you know, in the best possible shape.

Anvesh Agrawal
VP, Morgan Stanley

That's very clear. Can I just ask as a follow-up? Sorry. You have this margin corridor of 3%-6% and 50% recovery ratio. Will you be sort of prepared to go below that 3% range in a recession this time to start investing early and capture the market share on the way up? You effectively manage the business at 3% floor and 50% recovery ratio, which then can sometimes lead to sort of, I mean, more cuts than needed perhaps.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

I'll start and then Coram, you can compliment. First, I think that we have a portfolio of services and business units which has evolved since COVID. We have now Akkodis, which weighs EUR 4 billion with higher margins, we have brought fundamentally better resilience with that acquisition and a diversified portfolio. Coram mentioned this, the sort of cyclical and counter-cyclical nature combined with LHH as well. I think we are in a much better place again and with again the very strict management of our costs, of our sales investments. I think we can...

You know, I'm quite positive in the way we can face, you know, a possible downturn. If you wanna go more into the corridor.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Yeah. I mean, so let me add two points to that and then let me sort of touch on the corridor and the commitment to 6%. I mean, for me, in addition to the points that Denis made, the EUR 150 million is focused on the G&A component of SG&A. We need to be really clear about this because that is the area where, because of the move to the new structure, we've incurred extra costs. Because of the transformation in some of our back office functions, we have incurred dual running costs, and there are things that we can do with procurement and real estate. We're very focused on that G&A, and that will not impact our ability to seize any recovery.

If anything, it will help because it's about simplifying the business. The other point I would make is that, you know, if we look at what happened in the depths of COVID and then the recovery, it wasn't that we cut too deep, it was that we were too slow to reinvest. Managing that balance and understanding capacity that's required and when to increase it, I think is key. I think Denis and the executive team's focus now on growth and share and really making the most of all of our businesses will help on that. I think we can clearly manage within the corridor that we've described. Once we're on the other side of that corridor, you know, you're hearing a very clear commitment to get to 6%.

That's because, you know, we think that the simplify, execute and grow plan will put the business in better shape to deliver growth and profitability. It's about enhancing the way that our GBUs are delivering and performing. Getting operational leverage on the share gains and the growth in Adecco. You know, making sure that the U.S. is performing the way that it should do. Driving productivity and scale the digital businesses in LHH. Delivering the synergies on Akkodis. Delivering the EUR 150 million of cost savings. In a supportive economic environment, we are confident we can do that.

Anvesh Agrawal
VP, Morgan Stanley

Well, that's very clear. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Kean Marden from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Kean Marden
Managing Director and Head of Support Services Research, Jefferies

Hi. Morning, gents. I've got three. Just first of all, starting with headcount. There's quite a few results this morning, so apologies if this number is buried in there. Have you disclosed the weighted average headcount for the first quarter? I can see that you mentioned up 12% year-on-year. If that's correct, then it looks like you possibly have reduced headcount by about 2,000 sequentially in the third quarter, which doesn't quite chime, I think, with the narrative that you mentioned earlier on. I thought I would check. Secondly, Denis, I wonder if you can just expand further on some of the incentivization changes that you referenced in your prepared remarks earlier on.

Just what specifically have you changed to try and sort of readdress that balance? Then thirdly, again for Denis as well, potentially, given your experience at Altran in the past, how would a business like AKKA and Altran normally perform during a recession?

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Take the first one, Coram, and I'll take the other two. Thank you, Kean. Yeah.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Just to be clear, 12% increase in FTEs year-on-year. Sequentially, we were broadly flat. It was actually just up 1%, and that was because of seasonal variations. We haven't taken 2,000 heads out, Kean. It's sequentially flat, Q2 to Q3.

Kean Marden
Managing Director and Head of Support Services Research, Jefferies

Is that a number that you're going to continue to report quarterly? 'Cause it is quite an important lead indicator for analysts and investors. It looks like you've disclosed that for quite a few quarters, but maybe not today. Is that correct?

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

I think we're trying to be very clear in terms of the movements on SG&A and the movements on FTEs, both year-on-year and sequentially. We understand how important it is, and we'll keep disclosing the numbers that you need.

Benita Barretto
Head of Investor Relations, Adecco Group

If I may add, the employee FTE number you will find in the press release when we go through the group. The group FTE is there when you take another look.

Kean Marden
Managing Director and Head of Support Services Research, Jefferies

Okay. Sorry, Benita. Thank you.

Benita Barretto
Head of Investor Relations, Adecco Group

Don't worry.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

All right. Regarding your second question, Kean, in broad terms, what have we done and what are we planning to do for 2023? First thing is to simplify. It turns out that some of our teams had incentives with seven, eight or nine targets. They told me as I was visiting the teams in the countries that they told me, "We don't understand how we're judged on our performance." There was this big need to simplify the message back to simplify, execute and grow. Actually, we've reshaped the incentives with this in mind.

I'd say fundamentally, there were also incentives that were skewed towards almost like only the profitability, which has led us to, in some parts of the world, to only do like the, you know, the cost cutting or even contract cutting exercise just to get to the, like, year-end profitability target. That has created, I mean, I say, you know, wrong behaviors. As I've been very clear to the team, I want to achieve the profitability through the top line. Of course, you cannot sell, you know, you've got to be careful when you sell, but you've got to have that top-line dynamic to ensure that the profitability comes from that. We will be cost-conscious. I talked about that.

We rebalanced, typically, in the incentives, the part that is generated by the top line and the part that is generated by the profitability. On the recession, from an Akkodis' perspective, I think, you know, as Adecco can be a very cyclical business, as you know, even though we are also doing, you know, diversifying the Adecco business with outsourcing, which is less cyclical, actually. Akkodis is intrinsically a bit less cyclical. Typically, if I would say, you know, most companies do not cut the projects of the future. They do not cut, you know, the R&D projects.

They can sometimes do a little bit right-size them, but the fundamental trend and a big chunk of the Akkodis projects are based on, you know, the digital transformation of our clients. These things, you know, no matter what happens in the macroeconomic environment, clients will have to invest in these. We bring, I think, with Akkodis now, a, I would say, a more recession-proof business. Of course, it can be impacted here and there. The other thing that I would say is because Akkodis is quite diversified across a series of industries that do not react to, you know, macroeconomic environments at the same, you know, with the same pattern. Some are impacted earlier, some later, which helps us also move consultants from one industry to another.

That's a big strength of Akkodis's positioning, is to be across and to have as a priority, as you know, seven industries and seven technical practices. That helps really move people around, which is another, I would say, security when we face possible downturns.

Kean Marden
Managing Director and Head of Support Services Research, Jefferies

Is that a big change in terms of mix and your point there, Denis, from 2009? I guess if we look at historic data, AKKA's EBIT margin broadly halves and Altran went from about an 8% EBIT margin to about a 2% EBIT margin. There's a very different shape to those businesses now than there was during that 2008, 2009 downturn.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Yeah. You know, let's be clear. You know, there's no company that is immune to a recession. Let's be clear. Okay? Now, the fact that in the portfolio of projects, probably compared to 2009, that the outsourcing part of projects is of a greater importance than the pure, I would say, almost staffing type business, brings a little more solidity because outsourcing brings efficiency to our clients. It's the staffing is more reactive, the outsourcing is more resilient and better mar-

Kean Marden
Managing Director and Head of Support Services Research, Jefferies

That, that's useful.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

With better margins.

Kean Marden
Managing Director and Head of Support Services Research, Jefferies

Yeah. That's really helpful. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Paul Sullivan from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Paul Sullivan
Managing Director of Equity Research, Barclays

Yeah. Good morning, everyone. Just firstly on gross margin, can you talk about pricing and gross margin movement within Temp in Q3 ex one-offs? On what basis is your flat fourth quarter gross margin assumption based? Secondly, are you seeing sort of wage inflation accelerate going through sort of September and October? Denis, are you happy with the current shape of the portfolio? Did you look at disposals as part of your sort of strategy refresh? Thank you.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Coram, you take the first two ones?

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

I'll take.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Yeah.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

I'll take the first ones on those. Paul, in terms of the gross margin in Q3 in Temp, you'll have seen, I think it was 60 basis points down, but a good chunk of that, more than half of that came from the one-offs, particularly in France. You'll remember there was a significant release in Q3 of 2021, which we highlighted at the time and in our guidance for Q3. The underlying movement in gross margin in Flex is actually pretty small. As you know, it's very strong. I think it's driven by the mix of solutions, and it's driven by good pricing discipline. We continue to really focus on that. In terms of wage inflation, that is very much still a feature of the market.

We're seeing wage inflation that in Q3 has probably slowed a little bit on average versus Q2, but we're still in mid-single digits of wage inflation across the group. What's interesting is that some of the territories where this was stronger in the early parts, like Latin America, U.S. and U.K., have slowed a little, whereas continental Europe has increased a little. I think when we've talked about wage inflation in the past, that's what we predicted would happen, because obviously the collective labor agreements that you see in continental Europe tend to hold wage inflation back. Initially, we are seeing it come through, so it's very much a feature of that. In terms of the gross margin guidance for Q4.

You know there are a number of moving parts to this, so let me try and break them down. On M&A, it's likely to be roughly flat. On FX, it's pretty helpful at the moment, so assume that's about +30 basis points on the gross margin. We'd expect an ongoing benefit from PERM, probably a little bit negative, albeit reduced, because as we've said, we're seeing a change in trajectory in career transition. I think Flex will be down a little bit, so probably 20-30 basis points, just because it's a tough comp in Q4. If you put all of that together, you'll get to our guidance of sort of broadly stable gross margin on an organic basis, and +30 to +40 on a reported basis. I hope that helps.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

With regards to the portfolio, thank you for your question, Paul. I'd say, yeah, of course, as you can imagine, I've done a portfolio review. I'd say overall, I'm happy with the portfolio that we have. I think again, with the acquisition of AKKA, we have added another significant acquisition. It's a good acquisition. We've added a strong, you know, capacity. There's nothing that I've seen that would be of a material size that would require to be disposed. Do we have here and there a few things that we might look at? Possibly, but there would be nothing material. We are adjusting the portfolio.

As you know, we are trying to have placements, you know, typically, you know, we talked a bit about the Akkodis part of the Akkodis U.S. moving to Adecco, so because we believe Adecco would be a better custodian of that business. We've worked on a smaller country operating model for LHH, better anchored into Adecco. I mean, those are, I'd say, portfolio adjustments, nothing that justifies, you know, any disposals. Do we have areas where we underperform? Yes, we have, and I mentioned that earlier. Are we all hands on deck on that because I think that we can turn them around? Yes. I would say nothing major on the disposal front.

Paul Sullivan
Managing Director of Equity Research, Barclays

Great. Thank you. Just to follow up, I mean, when you talked about the review of contracts with low profitability at AKKA, how much revenue are you talking about there?

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

I think we're not talking anything major.

Paul Sullivan
Managing Director of Equity Research, Barclays

Right.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

It's just more, you know, we roll up our sleeves because it's part of, you know, having low profitability contract is not what we wanna have. I insist on that, and I'm gonna say it again, a low margin contract is to be turned around by the teams, either by typically in the Akkodis business, typically by reviewing the scope with the client, or by, you know, negotiating terms. That's the first priority. I don't want to see contract exiting as an easy path for our teams. They've got to roll up their sleeves and get things done.

Paul Sullivan
Managing Director of Equity Research, Barclays

We shouldn't expect a sort of a significant organic drag from that?

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Nope.

Paul Sullivan
Managing Director of Equity Research, Barclays

Just finally for me, just to be crystal clear, if we sort of, you know, go through the scenario of revenue decline going into next year or going through at some point next year, you know, you've got the recovery ratio. You are being very clear that, you know, we'll have the AKKA savings on top of that, and we will also have the beginnings of this EUR 150 million plan. So I mean, the reported recovery ratio in terms of SG&A reduction in a downturn will be quite substantial. Is that what we should expect?

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

I think, you know, as you know, Paul, it's very difficult to get into the ins and outs of recovery ratios. The reason we highlight it is because that's the way that we manage the business, and we've done it with agility. You saw us manage it in 2020. You know, the actions that we're taking around bringing the Akkodis business together, driving EUR 150 million of savings, that's all about making sure that this is a, you know, an even healthier business that is able to weather any storms that are coming.

Paul Sullivan
Managing Director of Equity Research, Barclays

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Foeth from Vontobel. Please go ahead.

Michael Foeth
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Vontobel

Yeah, thank you. Good morning, gentlemen. Three questions. The first one is, I wanna come back on dividends. You were very clear about your commitment to the dividend policy, and I was just wondering if there is any scenario where you would deviate from that policy at all. That's the first question. The second one is, I guess you're tilting, if I understand correctly, your priority slightly from margins toward growth, and I just wanted to if you could remind us on the management incentive alignment with that strategy, if you could say a few words on that. Finally, did I understand correctly that you're removing the 3% floor from your EBITDA margin corridor, or is it still in place? Thank you.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Let me take the second one, and then, Coram, you take the first and the third, right?

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Yeah.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Let's be very clear. You know, margins are important. You know, profit is important. It helps us give a dividend, by the way, and it's also, you know, what helps us invest in the future. I don't want to compromise on margin. I want to refocus people on margins that are generated by the top line and not by, sorry, sometimes excessive cost savings on the wrong things or stopping contracts just for the sake of just getting a short-term improvement in profitability. This is, you know, top line and margin. This is precisely how management incentives are being set. You will see for 2023 in the next report, but this is, you know, it's just a balance of both, right?

With the ambition that we've set to be at 6%, you know, in a supportive economic environment, we're very clear that that is still a big focus for us through a super dynamic top line, winning market share, growing on all the opportunities that we have ahead of us.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Let me now pick up on the other two questions. In terms of dividend, I just wanna go back to what I've said before. There are a number of features of the business that underpin our commitment to the dividend. It's the countercyclicality of, you know, parts of the portfolio. It's the countercyclicality of cash. That is very, very important in the way that this business operates. It's the agility and flexibility that we have in terms of managing the cost base. You know, we paid that dividend in 2020, and we did so in an environment, and I remember it well because it was just when I arrived in the role, where we were 40% down in Q2.

You know, the dividend has been stress tested, and our commitment to underpinning that dividend and paying it is clear. On the margin corridor, I want to be clear, we are not indicating to you that we will go lower in terms of profitability in a downturn. The resilience of this business is clear. I think the actions that we are taking underpin the profitability of this business in a downturn, the agility with which we can manage the cost base. Again, using 2020 as a reference, remember the margin that we delivered and the recovery ratio. I don't want you to think that somehow we're indicating that, you know, we will tank profitability in a downturn.

Just to be clear, though, it is a cyclical business, and we can't escape that. There are aspects of the business and the way in which the working capital dynamics work that help us. We've proved the resilience and agility, and I think, you know, Denis and I and the management team are very committed to managing in that way through any downturn that we might face, or that we might experience. The 6% margin target is a statement of intent. It signals our confidence in the portfolio, the actions that Denis has outlined, the businesses that we've got and their potential, and the benefit of the cost savings. On the other side of a downturn, we're very committed to getting to that target.

Michael Foeth
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Vontobel

Okay. That's very clear. Thank you. That's why you rephrased the EBITDA margin target.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Yep.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Yeah.

Hans Pluijgers
Managing Director, Kepler Cheuvreux

For that last reason.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Yep, exactly.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Exactly.

Michael Foeth
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Vontobel

Okay.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

We've demonstrated the resilience at the bottom, and we're signaling a statement of intent around the top.

Michael Foeth
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Vontobel

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

The last question for today comes from Hans Pluijgers from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Hans Pluijgers
Managing Director, Kepler Cheuvreux

Morning, all. Two questions from my side. First of all, coming back on, let's say, the execution part of the business update. You indicate that you will empower decision-making close to the customers and GBU and local level. Could you give maybe some examples? How do you expect that or how do you want to implement that? Secondly on that, at the same time, I think I understood correctly that during your 100 days review, one of the things you saw is that the whole business was a little bit too complex among others due to the fact that there was too much decision-making on local level. Did I get that correctly? Secondly on that, how can I match those two remarks?

Coming back on the, let's say, the one-off cost relating to the cost savings, so about EUR 121 million, so about EUR 150 million. Is there a material part related to a write-down on the legacy IT systems? Could you give maybe some feeling on that?

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Okay. I'll take the first two and Coram, you take the third one.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Sure.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

Thanks, Hans. First, the typical example. When I visited the countries, we, you know, as we transform the group from a very decentralized, and I'd say a patchwork of countries into something which is more organized and able to serve particularly global clients, and able to also deploy at a faster pace, you know, some digital assets, some fundamental, you know, offers that are linked to, you know, value creation for our clients. As we did that, we put a governance that are more, I would say, more centralized and actually globalized.

Which means that for a country sometimes to decide on how to address a client, how to make an offer, we would have to go like five, six layers, because the GBUs wanted to really govern what they had to do. As we reorganized it, you know, our HR function more global, we also had some decisions that went actually too high in the organization. you slow down your decision-making process because things have to go up and then down.

We are now in a much better place and learn from that to, you know, re-empower, to give now clear guidelines from the top, I would say, a framework, but within that framework, we leave and we empower the countries and the business units within the countries to operate. It's not to decide at the top. The top is to give principles and global directions, and it's now within these global directions down to the countries to operate with their local context. To give you an example, and particularly, for example, in IT, we had, you know, a development that had to take like several months to get approval, whereas it could have been developed very quickly locally.

Those things we are redesigning, taking the learnings of the past two, three years, getting what is centralized to remain centralized, and for all the rest, giving principles to the business and letting the business make the decisions as close to customers as possible. This is how we operate. What I was talking about remote decision-making is because some decisions were taken by people who were too remote from the business. We are adjusting that to be more efficient.

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Then on the charges for the one-off costs, remember what I said, there's two phases to this. The first is tactical, about reducing some of our procurement spend and our third-party suppliers. The second is a bit more involved in terms of looking at the operating model and what gets done where and really simplifying and streamlining it. We haven't got a final breakdown because we need to complete that second phase of work. There may be some write-downs on legacy IT systems. Again, when we've worked through it, I think we'll have a clearer picture. It won't be the majority, because at the end of the day, you know, the biggest cost in our business is people. There will be some severance costs.

There will also be some costs, for example, in terms of changing our real estate footprint and indeed exiting from procurement contracts that we may want to end faster. Yes, there may be some IT write-downs, but I wouldn't assume it's the majority of what we're talking about.

Hans Pluijgers
Managing Director, Kepler Cheuvreux

As I understand it correctly, a big part or majority is also to be cashed out in the end for-

Coram Williams
CFO, Adecco Group

Yeah, majority of it will be cash out.

Hans Pluijgers
Managing Director, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay, thanks.

Denis Machuel
CEO, Adecco Group

All right. Thanks, Hans. As a few words for conclusion, I want to thank everyone for attending this call. Just want you to have clearly in mind that we've done a great Q3, 16% reported, 6% organic growth. We are winning market share, particularly in the Adecco, who's now, you know, regained growth leadership. We have a solid strategy. We're focused on executing it with, you know, simplify, execute, and grow levers that will put us in a good place to navigate the future, continue to grow market share, continue to win on the market, and, you know, we're very confident in how the future looks like for our group.

Thank you very much for having been with us and looking forward to exchanging with you for the next quarter. Thank you.

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