Welcome here in Wangen. It's geographically almost the center of Switzerland. There is west, east, north, south. It doesn't look like this. It's countryside, but it's from a logistic point of view, really in a good place. Welcome for this capital markets day, eighth of June. The moment we announced this, we didn't know what the world is this eighth of June. There are most probably easier moments and easier times to give guidance for a three-year period. We take all the circumstances into consideration, and we'll do our best to be as precise as possible. You have received the ad hoc today morning, which is the shortened version of this presentation. Today, we are here in the room with people being present and in a live stream via a webcast. This is the agenda for today.
The first point we obviously managed the arrival coffee. It's a good thing to work with or in a bakery. It's much better than for a technical company or a project team, so we can welcome guests with our own products, with a good coffee. This is basically our business. Bakery products are always an emotional calorie. It's a good thing to have a good coffee in the morning, a good pastry. It's an indulgence. It's connected with memories, and this is the business we follow. It is, by the way, as well, the most efficient calorie you had today morning. There is no other calorie which is more efficient than this from an economical point of view and from an environmental point of view. It's a primary calorie. It's not feed to a pig or a cow or whatever it was.
It's a very economical, very cheap calorie. Okay. It's on the breakfast table, the most efficient calorie. That's why we are quite confident that, especially in these days, in this time, our product will keep or even expand its place on our table. The first hour we will spend together with my part of the presentation. We call it Where to Play, How to Win. Where is ARYZTA present? What is our business? What is the size of the business we have? What is our plan to keep the business growing into the right direction? 10:00 A.M., there is no way out in a food company. A food tasting driven by our French friends and Swiss friends. French friends from Coup de pates. This is a food service business we have in France.
It's by far the leader in this part of the world with all you can think about food, everything. It's dreamland for food-sensitive people. We have our Swiss friends with the Swiss assortment, all the products you know. Then 11-12, Martin Huber, the CFO presentation, the figures and numbers. Then the bakery tour here in our ARYZTA bakery. It's a 25,000-27,000 ton output machine. Here it's quite a small bakery, but it covers Switzerland. That's the way it is. The biggest bakery we have is more or less factor 10 to this. We are producing all product lines here, breads, rolls, pastries, snacks, artisan breads. In a second location, a small location, wood oven bread. This is driven by the circumstances in Switzerland. For our foreign guests, Switzerland is quite a protected market, protected business.
As soon as you move with your products close to the agricultural world, the protection becomes even bigger. The bakery tour, and then before we close the day, there is a nice lunch. We will have time to discuss, and we will give you a takeaway to take home to explain to your family and friends what the day was today. Paul reminded me of the forward-looking statement. This is the life insurance. You all know this. We are living and working in difficult days, difficult times, so you know this best. Please take this into consideration. First, allow me to explain the market dynamics and ARYZTA's position in this. What is the business? What is our position in this business? Where do we play? What is the ambition of ARYZTA for the time window 2023-2025?
All what we are saying today is covering 2023, 2024, 2025. Our 2023 starts already in 2022. Last time, we had a bit confusion about this. The first of August is our new year. It's the first business day of the fiscal year 2023. We close business year 2025, 31st of July 2025. We are not in the calendar year, we are in this fiscal year. Martin Huber with the growth drivers and the capital allocation, an important topic, and even more important in times when interests are going into another direction, hopefully. That's the actuality about this margin improvement, capital efficiency and cash flow and capital structure. With this day today, we first time direct our view into the future. You remember there was an election, a board election, 2020.
Heiner told me this, reminded me of this, and I will tell it now. The first 6 months we had board questions to solve and shareholder questions to solve. We started with the business renovation 18 months ago only. Before, we had other challenges to manage. It's a short time we are working on that business. What is our business? You can see here the bakery market as an entire view. There are small artisan bakeries in town, in cities, driven and managed by families. I grew up in a bakery like this. We have the fresh business, the 17% share. The artisan bakeries are covering 27% of the share, more or less. The fresh bakeries driven in Switzerland by the big retailers or by bigger other protagonists in Europe.
Daily delivered fresh products packed, unpacked to the outlets, to the market. There is a packaged part of the business, a 31% share today. There is a bake off part of the entire bakery business, which is the premium segment and which is the segment ARYZTA is playing in. ARYZTA is not obviously in small artisan bakery, is not in fresh. ARYZTA's history covered fresh. We had a fresh business in Switzerland. In my time, I had a fresh business in Poland. There were other constellations. ARYZTA had fresh business models in the portfolio. This is all gone. Today, we are only in the bake off segment. There is a packaged business. This bake off at home part of the business. The ambient, you remember the rolls or brioche or pre-baked Gipfeli. This is not our business.
We have some exceptions there. We are doing some packaged lines today still in Poland. We have one or the other in Germany, filled baguettes for example. We have one or the other in Malaysia, bake off at home. Basically this is not our core business, and this is less than 1%. Our clear focus is bake off. This is the premium segment. They are semi-finished products. Pre-proven or pre-baked products sold in boxes or in pallets to our customers, and then baked off at the point of sales, wherever it is. In a hotel, hopefully, today morning, in retail stores, in petrol stations, in convenience, wherever it is. Adding a freshness and a total availability over the entire day. In my days, we have here some people doing apprenticeship here up there.
In my days, when I did this apprenticeship, the business with bread, baking was over 6:00 A.M., Heiner. Then, delivered to the hotels, to the restaurants, to the stores. Having a fresh bread meant you had to go up early morning. I remember my mother opened the store 5:30 A.M. There were fresh, the first people there picking up bread for the working day. People took lunch these days to work. Or these days the schools were on Schulreisen, on school trips. That was always a sandwich day. 9:30, 10:00, the bread business was over. There was a lunch business with sweets, Cremeschnitte. I don't know this in English, but next time we will offer you something like this.
It's not the best thing for your health, but definitely a good thing for the humor. The afternoon in a bakery was tight, sluggish. 90% of the product and of the turnover these days was done between 6:00 A.M. and 12:00. Today, it is the other way around. If you go to gas stations, convenience store, retailers, discounters, there is an evening shopping taking place. People are going there, taking breads, meats, whatever it is, for the evening dinner. If you go to a gas station at a sunny afternoon, Sunday, you think that there is something for free. People are going there, and they just take three things out there. Just three things. Beer, sausages for the grill, and bread. This is the business. The dynamics completely changed, and this is bake off.
Bake off became the premium standard. Bake off is the outgrowing pillar in the business. Bake off is growing from 25% to 28% +3 over the next three years, while the packaged business is slightly shrinking, the way we see or the analysts see. The industrial fresh more or less will remain where it is, and the independent bakeries are becoming a bit compressed as well. Bake off is clearly the outgrowing part. It's growing 2%-3% annually, is expected to increase shares up to 28%, while the total bakery market is having a growth of more or less 1%. 1% is the population growth. Bake off is outgrowing this market. Now, what is driving this bake off growth? There is definitely a component of freshness. The expectation today is to have a warm bread during shopping.
This is clearly the standard set today in the business. There is an expectation on availability. 6, 7, 8 o'clock in the evening, you expect to have a more or less full assortment with all these breads, a superior quality. Bake off does not mean a bread finish produced being frozen and then regenerated again. It's just a bread which did half or three-quarter of the journey in the production process and then gets its finish in the point of sale. There is a clear quality expectation and an innovation expectation. Food to go, food out of home, innovative products are clearly driving this trend. A retailer or discounter, wherever it is, bake off products, bakery products as footfall drivers. To bring people into the stores is increasing the shopping frequency.
Penetration continues to growth in grocery and food service. There is a lot of ground to cover. We can do a lot more with bake off stations, with assortments, with clever concepts to increase basically the bake off and our position in the market. This is ARYZTA's landscape. It starts in the west with Ireland. It goes then to New Zealand. You can see that we have 7 food solution sales organizations in various countries, 13 bakeries like this. We have 13 quick serve restaurant bakeries, burger buns, shortly coming to this. We are active basically with presence in 27 countries. There is a higher presence with export activities, but we have people on the ground in 27 countries. A bakery is a bakery producing breads, rolls, laminated dough, pastry, snacks, all these type of products.
A quick serve restaurant bakery is producing mainly quick serve restaurant products. Different technology, different equipment, a different dynamic. Burger buns, flatbreads, crumpets, English muffins, all these type of products, but for quick serve restaurants. A burger bun bakery is a different thing to a bread bakery. You bake it in trays. It's a different machinery. It's a different dough mixing, rationale. It's a different packaging. It's a completely different logistic pattern, but it is a bakery. Thirteen quick serve restaurant bakeries can't be used for other assortments. Thirteen bakeries, the way we will see today afternoon, in 27 countries. This is the spread all over the world. All over our world, let me say it like this. The business we do is basically based on three different models. This is important to understand.
We frequently have these questions and these approaches. We have a food solution business. A food solution business is a direct store delivery business. It means a truck, an ARYZTA truck, or a Lidl truck or a contracted truck is delivering boxes to a customer, not pallets, boxes. We did a tour with our French friends. They are preparing tasting. They are not here. It starts 4:30, 4:00 A.M. The truck is a mid-sized truck. It's not a big one. It's a mid-sized one. There are 24, 25, 26 customers on the truck, and every customer gets one, two, five, 10, 15 boxes delivered.
It starts in the Metro in Paris, the first with the first delivery, because the trains they start to move 5:00 A.M., and then to hotels, to caterers, wherever it is. We did a tour, Martin, with the driver and me some weeks ago. You have then the occasion in this business model to have a sightseeing tour for free through Paris, starting 4:30 A.M., and you are back 10:30 A.M., 11:00 A.M. around noon. It's a logistics-driven model with a big assortment, and the assortment is a bought-in finished good assortment. It can be bought in from our own sources. It can be bought in from even competitors. It's not connected with manufacturing. Manufacturing happens in the other two models. This here is a distribution and marketing and sales model.
This is a strong sales focus-driven business, serving thousands of customers every day, seven days a week, six days a week, with the variety of products we have. We have the bakery model, which is basically oriented to grocery and wholesale. The model you can see here. Few customers, but large customers. It's obviously Coop and Migros in Switzerland. It's Aldi, Lidl, Rewe, Edeka, Tesco, E.Leclerc, Géant, Coop, ICA in Scandinavia, all these type of customers with customized SKUs. Products produced only in our bakeries. Big lots, tailor-made product to big customers. It's a production and logistics model. The food solution model is a logistic model. Bakery is a production and logistic model. It's a central warehouse delivery model. The bakery guys, they think in pallets. The food service guys, they think in boxes. They count boxes. The bakery is counting pallets.
We provide 13 bakeries like this. The biggest one having an output of 300,000 tons, which is the German one. A smaller one is a 25,000 ton of output. Several lines for rolls, breads, baguettes, all these type of products you know from grocery and wholesale. On the right side, the quick service restaurant model, which is as well a bakery model. We provide 13 bakeries which are tailor-made only for this business model. Very little volume out of this quick service restaurant is being sold then into retail or discount packed burgers, but this is just minor. It's clearly focused on the systems of the customer. It's all own produced. They don't do any trading, and it's an integrated product production model. It's very close.
It's basically, in the good sense of the word, a follower or a slave of our customer. It's an integrated model. There is no break. In some circumstances, in some constellations, the bakeries are even in the logistics premises of our customers. So the logistics means you take a forklift and you bring the pallet to an elevator, and the elevator ends in our customer's warehouse or truck or wherever it is. It's a very dedicated and customer-oriented model. These are the three business models we are doing. Basically, you can say that the bakery model is more or less half of the business we are doing, plus minus. The quick service restaurant is a bit north of 20%, and the ARYZTA food solution business then is a bit more than a quarter.
That's the way it adds up to 100%. Half bakery, 20% quick serve restaurant, and a bit more than 25%, the rest is the food service business. Different dynamics, different pricing, different rationale. It's all about bakeries. These three models are covering the bake off pillar I showed you. All three models are in the bake off pillar, even though some products from the quick serve restaurant business are not frozen, but they are refreshed, re-baked, re-toasted, warmed up at the point of sales. You know all the protagonists there with those who have kids, maybe on a weekly basis, which is good for us. All bake off. The landscape we are covering from Ireland to New Zealand, as I told, is an EUR 18 billion business. EUR 18 billion. We can see this a bit later.
It's mainly more, ±15% in Europe and 3% in Asia. Asia is catching up with the bake off penetration. There is still a big step to do. This EUR 18 billion are divided in category, product categories: breads, rolls, and artisan loaves by half. This is by far the biggest part of it. Savory and other, close to 20%. Sweet, baked, and morning goods, so croissants, vanilla bar, chocolate, pain au chocolat in the French-speaking part of the world by 31%. Half more or less breads and rolls and baguettes, and the rest then 19% savory, strongly growing. This is the out of home, the coffee to go or the lunch, occasion-driven model.
31% sweet, baked, and morning goods. All the things you know from the morning stop at the petrol station. By channel, it's a retail-driven model, more than half still. It's food service then close to 40%, and quick-serve restaurants are covering roughly 6% of this. The retail model always means the bake-off station in the store. It's not the shelf, it's the bake-off station. Everything which is freshly baked there in the retail store is in there. Food service, it was the hotel breakfast issue at the occasion. Today, it's the catering thing you will see in the afternoon. It's all these type of occasions. Quick-serve restaurants, you know the four big protagonists. There are excellent opportunities in all categories. There is an outgrowing part of the assortment, which is the savory part.
It addresses the way we live and we behave today. The home office behavior is not the best thing for this, but the home office, as Elon Musk told, is going away. The savory pillar there is outgrowing the average growth, the 2.6% market growth of this part of the business. Sweet baked and morning goods, more or less in line with the market growth. This is a learned and repeated behavior. Breads, rolls, and artisan loaves are a bit slower growing on a bigger scale, as you know. We see their overall growth of this business, of this market of 2.6%. We, ARYZTA, is outgrowing this. We are growing faster than this. The reasons I will explain a bit later. There is clearly a need for new taste, new look.
You saw the artisan style of products. There are products in the business not being there before. See this a bit later then. There's an artisan trend mainly in breads and rolls. It goes a bit away from the white baguette to the artisan product, to the hand style looking product, to wood-oven products, to products with fibers, protein-added products, all these type of things. The health component is coming in there. There's an ethical and vegetarian and vegan component in this, mainly in the savory part of the business. This is the same picture as we saw here. That's the product group view. This is the channel view. Quick-service restaurant is clearly outgrowing nowadays this business. Due to several reasons, it's a very economical way to invite family for a lunch, for a dinner.
It is a very well-organized business in all aspects, and the organization clearly drove business over the last month and two years, and most probably as well for the next years and month. Quick-serve restaurant did well, addressed these times, and is anyway under a big renovation. If you remember what a quick-serve restaurant was 15 years ago, and if you see what it is today, these are two different things. 15 years ago, it was a lunch occasion for kids, for food which was allowed by mom. This was the first thing. The fun for the kids, which was somehow accepted by mother. Today, this is a business which starts in the morning with breakfast. There's a lunch. You can eat there easily. A lot of things being very healthy.
You can have a good dessert, and you can even have there an evening occasion. It's mutating in the assortment and in the occasion. It was a kid thing for lunch, and it became an entire day occasion for the family. This is the outgrowing element of quick-serve restaurant. Food service being nicely back now after COVID. All these events, we have now during the summer days or whenever it is, food service during retail is picking up there as well. A bit less total market growth by 2.6%. This is what I told before, the EUR 18 billion across the world market, the EUR 15.5 billion with the 2.5% CAGR for Europe.
This is the addressable market we are in in Europe, from Ireland to Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, and the Nordics. We are mainly driven by retail by almost 60%, 39% food service, and 3% by quick-serve restaurant. Asia, a completely different picture the way you see. Retail, more or less 40%. Food service, quite similar. There is a huge component in quick-serve restaurant. This is clearly the trends. I was in Japan first time for Hiestand in the late 1990s. Already then, they had chain food offers. This concept was there being developed, is very trendy and very rich in occasion, in product, in availability, whatever it is. It's a different picture. It's a EUR 2.5 billion business market with the CAGR, which is roughly 1% higher than the European CAGR.
Now we travel to the other end of the value chain, to the customer landscape. This business appeared in our world 20-25 years ago. You will find today still a lot of founders in this landscape, family-owned businesses in this landscape, which were set up by the first generation. You can see here the assortment split and the channel split. We tried to place here all our friends or the most important protagonists in the businesses we are. You can see that ARYZTA is very well-placed with manufacturing and commercial footprint. We cover wealthy economies. It's the way we call. We have an exclusive focus on food service, while others are in different businesses, in fresh, in ambient. We are only in bake off, exclusively in bake off, and we offer all categories across all channels.
For this bake off approach, we cover the entire landscape. We are most probably the most focused protagonist in this bake off part of the business in the world we are, from Ireland to New Zealand. Many of these other businesses, again, are family-owned, private-owned, are founder-owned still. There is a watch ticking, obviously, a biological watch. This consolidation there will come. There is maybe as well then a new phase launch. At the moment, this is the landscape. Now, what is our ambition? Our ambition is to become the best partner for bake off solution across all our channels and markets. Where ARYZTA is present, ARYZTA is the number one. Our value proposition is to deliver the gold standard in this business. We are the one who others have to be compared.
We are the Goldhase from Lindt & Sprüngli, if I can say so. The international ones as well will understand this. We are the gold standard. In some markets, we are the gold standard. In some others, we are heading towards this, working on this, but this is clearly our goal. We are the one setting the standard and the measures. There is a but in our world. I don't think that I have to explain this too long. You experience this in the other businesses you are covering or invested in. War and supply chain disruptions, driving inflation all about across all the input costs. It's not only a flour thing or a wheat thing. We think in flour. We observe wheat, but we think in flour. Flour is a local good. Wheat is a global good.
If Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan are covering 30% of the global wheat supply, this has an impact on us, but we feel this then in flour. As we discussed already before, we do not believe that we will experience this shortage of supply because we are in wealthy economies, but we'll experience this in higher prices. The first flour we manufactured in Germany was EUR 200 a ton. Now we have bakeries, not in Germany, paying EUR 800 a ton. It's a very specific flour. It's a high-protein flour. It's a flour with really high specs, but this is the journey we took. The first butter we bought in Germany 25 years ago was a EUR 2.30, EUR 2.35 butter per kilo. Now we could easily end up with EUR 7.20, EUR 7.30, EUR 7.30.
It's 10 by three. Energy, you know. You are buying fuel, or you are paying heating bills or whatever it is. This inflation will continue. There was a discussion we had at the year-end there. Somebody told inflation came to stay, and that's the way it is. Inflation will become a constant impact into our business. There's little respite in near term. We are seeing a need for a higher rationalization for more efficient products, processes, but as well for more frequent price increases. Nobody in this business not being able to recover with pricing will survive. Nobody. It's so significant. The toxic inflation is the 2%-3% inflation. This is then being expected to be offset by the producers or by the offerors. At 30% inflation, not anymore.
In Switzerland, there is a spend, salary spend of 11% for food. This came down from 30% down to 11%. Germany is slightly above this. This will change. The German Minister for Agriculture and Consumers told that the times for cheap food are over, and he's right. Several reasons, the war is one, the shortage in wheat is one. There are other impacts. There were some miscalculations over the past in the market. These days, I believe, are over. There's a food consumption habit which could be impacted or can be impacted by the situation we have. There is a defensive approach visible in some parts of the business. Carbohydrates, the way I told at the beginning, are the most efficient calorie in our world.
There are regions living from bread because it's the only calorie they can afford. In our world as well, a bread or a roll is the most efficient calorie a mother can offer to the kids for dinner. You always win with bread, by the way. It's never seen as a bad thing. A good, warm piece of bread is always a very welcome thing. There were diets and trends against carbohydrates. Bread is there and will be there. There is a trend we see that packaged goods are losing a bit share. This is perceived as a bit old style. Consumers value freshness, they like to have a quality assortment being available. The bake off market, despite the crisis, will continue to grow. We observed this in the past, and we will see this in the future.
There will be ups and downs, but overall, the bake off market is in a mega trend up. ARYZTA mainly is focused on wealthy economies, high consumer spending ability with a robust social support system. This is important. We are not in countries where all or nothing questions are coming up. We are placed in wealthy economies. Our business, despite all the hassle, all the difficulties everyone is facing in this world, the bake off business and ARYZTA's business will continue to growth. The mid-term targets 2023-2025. We expect an organic growth, a CAGR of 4.5%-5.5%. All of this under the assumption of constant pricing based on fiscal year 2022.
There can be a lot of warm air with inflation, but if we would assume that the pricing would remain constant, we would be between 4.5% and 5.5% organic growth. There's an EBITDA margin we will achieve similar or north of 14.5%. This is, I think, a good step towards the right direction. An ROIC which is justifying an investment in our business. ARYZTA was value destructive, value burning for many years. We turn now into the value creating mode with an ROIC 11% or higher. A revenue which is heading towards or beyond EUR 2 billion, again, based on constant pricing, if you would freeze the pricing end of fiscal year 2022. A CapEx in percentage of revenue of 3.5%-4%. ARYZTA is well invested.
We are running on a capacity usage of 80%, 78%. There's a lot of space to gain. There are efficiency projects, and the usage of a capacity can trigger an investment, not necessary, can trigger as well a change in the assortment. Give less profitable products away and manufacture the others. Just to create a picture for you will see in an hour a manufacturing place. It's in total investment of maybe EUR 50 million, EUR 50 million, EUR 55 million. It started at the beginning, then there were reinvestments, changes. Take EUR 50 million net investment, minimum. We do not own the building, we rent the building. With the building, this would be in-house taking and everything that would be an investment more than double of this. It would be EUR 100 million net easy.
With the efficiency program we have, which is man-hour per ton and line hour per ton, we will gain annually minimum 3% capacity. If we manage 3% capacity gain through rationalization every year, we will get every year a production plant like this for free. This is the gain in a picture we will manage over the entire group. This is massive, and this is the projects we are working on. That's why the 3.5%-4% CapEx in order to let the business run with some line extensions here or a capacity acquisition, we just recently did in Asia, we will be fine there. This then leads to the elephant in the room, the leverage ratio we have. Total net debt leverage, including hybrids of more or less 3x , driven by operational results.
This is the lighthouse we are heading towards. You can see that ARYZTA changed now its focus from phase one, first six months from survive to renovate. That was then the last eighteen months, and we are now in the phase build. We are heading towards a normal company, a value creative company. This is basically the message of today. This is the Bible we have every day, Armin Bieri picture, innovation and category that we are not a branded business. You find some Hiestand products in Switzerland. Hiestand is known in Switzerland. You know Cuisine de France in Ireland. We know Coup de Pates in France. We know Mette Munk or Pré Pain in other countries. Basically, the consumer, the buyer in the store does not know ARYZTA or where the product is coming from. The product is not branded.
That's why we have to win the fight every day. We are in a daily business, which is a good thing. We are in daily business. We have every day the opportunity to do something right. There is another thing as well in the daily business. We have every day the opportunity to do something wrong. Innovation and category know-how is key. Innovation is not only product. It's a lot about product, but it's not only product. Can be process, can be in the technical part, can be in the ESG part, can be with power, with renewable energy, with all these type of things. Channel solutions in order to offer to food service, retailing, QSR, their dedicated solution. Not as something they can use, they need their solution. Quality and efficiency. Quality is key. Quality is the magnet bringing customers, consumers back into the store.
One's wrong, other store the next day. This is the clear rationale. If you do a bad experience with the bread or with somebody else, but with the bread in our case, you change the point of sales. Customer development. Strong focus on dedicated customer needs. This is the wheel we change. Be the category captain, be the one who sets the standard, and be the strategic partner for our customer. Our growth strategy is driven by baseline growth, as I told, the 1% market growth, the 2.6% bake off growth, and, on top of this, the premiumization and innovation. ARYZTA is outgrowing the market by premiumization and innovation. The baseline growth is the one who gives us the tailwind in the business.
I explained this, the bake off trends, the freshness, the quality expectation, and the consumption pattern, and the premiumization and innovation is key. This is a baguette from Pré Pain, Holland, being sold in all the big retailers in Holland based on a new stress-free technology, which makes the inside, the texture of the product more attractive, the product more moist, and it makes the difference in the market. Premiumization is even possible with a commodity product. It's more moist, it's more crispier, stronger in flavor and in the appearance. It's hard to see, but even in quick-service restaurant, there's a huge change ongoing. An upgrade of the quality of products, of the buns, for example, not only.
It's better in taste, it's better in look, it's better in crispiness, it stays longer fresh, and it's all based on new recipes and new technologies. Every change in this part of the business is triggering an investment chain reaction. ARYZTA invests, this burger project is a big, big thing for us, and the restaurant invests because having a burger which is just 5 mm higher is changing the entire logistic system in the chain. The toaster, the oven, the freezer, the rack, the packaging, everything. We did here a nice installation, a nice innovation with the pastry line. You will see. The outcome was that the product was bigger, which is basically good. The issue is the packaging is too small. This box is too small. We did a good thing, and the collateral effects then are significant. Exactly the same here.
This is a big change and a big trend in quick serve restaurants. Rolls, breads, away from the white breads, from the white commodity breads, into a more attractive product. Rolls with new artisan look, with intensive flavor. It's not a Sättigungsbeilage or a thing to keep your hands free of fat because you like the meat in between. No. Bread became a real taste carrier. Adding raisins, seeds, olives, whatever it is, and having then at the end of the day, a good product for breakfast or for a good lunch or dinner. The good old baguette, the white baguette, is on its way to go away, let me say it like this. There are more artisan, new style of baguettes in trend. Stone oven-baked products with longer dough fermentation. The dough fermentation in the good old times was a night.
We did dough in the evening, 6:00 P.M., and the bread in the morning, 2:30 A.M. or 3:00 A.M. There was a dough resting time over a night. We try to simulate this here in this process. You will see the tanks. There is liquid sponge in. We have other systems, similar systems, which is adding time to the process, four hours, six hours, eight hours, simulating this. This gives taste. This gives color. This gives crispiness, freshness, moist. This is the effect. Baguette is a good product to work on this. Then we have here in bread rolls. As you know, I explained at the beginning, it's a bit the same with the white bread roll. I have to watch now on time. Yeah. two minutes to go. The same idea to add value to the commoditized product.
Another example of a bread, a crafted look, a roasted aroma, crispy crust, longer freshness with a well-rested dough for a good oil or with a good oil and good olives and not being correct, but with a good glass of wine, it's even better. Products approaching the healthy trend of our world with fibers added, with proteins added, low carb content. This is a very nice and popular product in Switzerland. The plant-based products, the vegan and vegetarian product. Here a chicken snack. Tastes like chicken, but no chicken inside. The good old Toast Hawaii. The more experienced generation experienced this. It's coming back now. It's having a revival. Yeah. No more comments on this. Every Friday, Toast Hawaii with salad. It was a nightmare for me, but it's back now in our world.
Snacking, a big trend in our times. This is bought in finished goods with new fillings, new shapes, new tastes, with a wonderful, nice laminated dough. The way you can see here with the on the dough. The healthy stuff for the rest of the day carries you calorie-wise to the end of the day. We had huge promotions with exactly this in Asia to pancakes, and in between, Nutella. Oh, a huge thing in Australia. Really well done. We have a cooperation with them here. A filled muffin, wonderful product. The variety is big. All this combined with cost efficiency and manufacturing excellence. This is a line we drive in Poland for burger buns, obviously.
This is the way a modern bakery looks, based all on improvement programs, simplifications of measures, so we know every day where the performance is. Leveraging procurement became a clear need of these days. Streamlining of end-to-end processes, adding every day an efficiency more. This is transforming ARYZTA from a value-destructive acquisition-driven model, which ARYZTA was in the past, to a value-creating organic growth model. Our best way, our most profitable, our safest way in our business is the organic growth, the innovation, the renovation in our products, in our business to get to a value-creating organic growth model. This was the first part of the presentation. The next point would be tasting. You don't get away in a bakery without eating. It's a good thing we are not a winery.
If we would be a winery, we would have today to do this in the afternoon in a good hotel, so we can do this in the morning. But maybe we open the round for some questions before we go for the tasting. We shouldn't wait, let them wait too long, because you have seen the chef there. He can become angry, being too late. So, we can then maybe as well add one or the other question then for the rest. Paul.
Just giving them a bit more time on the Q&A might be better later, you know, for the next section.
Okay. Paul is giving me the right point. Let's do now just some questions, and then we hurry up, and we'll raise the questions then mainly in the Q&A session. If there would be something for now, for a picture or for something I told, please feel free. Joern?
Two quick questions. The commitment of management, yours, your Martin, given your experience here in the last couple of quarters, how big is this commitment? Also, do you continue maybe as executive chairman and CEO at the same time? The second question, just a standard question, but important. For fiscal 2023, can you give us an indication on potential price increases and, if you assume that there is steady total inflation, but not a small bump in the road towards 2025? Just understand it that way.
The second question I will leave with Martin. Let me give you a remark. If you could give us a commodity price guidance for this, we could answer these questions most probably quite precise. Yeah. Okay, let me give this question later then to Martin. Joern, there is not only a management. We have first time a board, which is the advocate of the shareholder. I didn't see this in ARYZTA for 15 years. We are a well-balanced board with people from the industry, with people from other industry, people having a finance background, people are being well connected. Heiner Kamps, you know him. Alejandro being well experienced in many businesses. Helene, finance in several functions.
Gordon traveled around the world for many businesses in the commodity part, in the bakery part. Goodman Fielder, we met first time in Australia many years ago in a pub in the evening. Jérémy Bonnafont, well-known in several industries. It's not only management, it's a team. We have Armin Bieri here. We have country managers. You will see Dieter Salzmann. Julien, our boss from France, was not able to come. They had a tragedy there with an employee in France. His best man is here, Arno. There are many people in place understanding the business and driving this every day. ARYZTA came away from being a beaten company to a company where people allow themselves to tell in the evening invitation where they work.
Ten years ago, that was the running gag. ARYZTA, oh, that must be funny. That changed. It's not only about the top management. Our commitment is here. This is our journey and our work we have to do every day. Martin, now you had time to think about inflation and margin.
About the pricing, I think it's important what we do here today is to explain to you our midterm target and what are the building blocks and the value creation framework to achieve that. If it comes to a very specific question on 2023, I would wait until we present the full year results for 2022 and then give the clear guidance for the 2023 year. I think it's a bit premature to enter into these details on the 2023, particularly the 2023 guidance.
Patrick.
Yes.
Patrick had three papers handwritten. That becomes dangerous now.
I'll stick to one. Thank you. Patrik Schwendimann from Zürcher Kantonalbank. I just realized that you're underexposed in food, in the food service channel. I mean, you've mentioned that the whole market is 39% of the market is food service, and you're just roughly at 28%. There's also a target to get more into this channel and maybe to dilute a little bit the retail channel, because typically in the retail you don't earn a lot of money.
Basically, companies are going there where the margins are. The food service business is a very safe business. We don't work with two or three or four big protagonists. We are working with 30,000 customers in France, for example. You can lose one, you gain two, but if you lose one, you didn't lose half of the turnover. This is clearly a place we show our excellence and our strength we have to outgrow this market. It was difficult in the last two years with COVID. The French business is back now on pre-COVID levels, slightly ahead, slightly below, but they did really well. The other food service businesses are at the mercy of the COVID restrictions or not.
At the end of the day, there is a good potential to expand the business. I think the from the complexity point of view and from the know-how intensity point of view, the most difficult business we have, but the most safe. You can be sure that we will try to gain their ground. I mean, it's very complex. There are hundreds of lorries every day on the road. We have one main hub in Paris, for example, and we have sub locations with their own lorries, with their sales teams, with their manager. A big assortment, you can see there are products in there you would never connect with bakery. It's a very complex model and a very safe and good model. That will be one of our focus in the next years. Yeah.
Thank you.
Yes.
Yeah. Do I have to press that too?
Yeah.
Maybe just a question of understanding on the market size. Let's say EUR 15.5 billion for Europe. I mean, I assume that's the consumer value, and how much would be the, basically on, let's say, players who have in-house capacities, just in case we wanna calculate the market shares.
This is the industrial.
Only the industrial.
Yes, yes. This is not sell in into the retail. It's not the consumer value. The consumer value.
Okay. That's including, let's say, if Coop produces themselves.
Yes, yes. Yeah.
What share would you see there of the, let's say, own produce compared to the people who are independent? 50/50 or-
From the retailers or from the
From producers like ARYZTA. I mean, yeah.
We cover more or less 10%, 11%, 12% of the market. Now, there are constellations we cover 40% of the market with some products in some countries. It can be 30%, it can be even more. It's a question we would have to answer based on what is the business constellation, what is the region, what is the product. It's difficult, but I can give you one number. There is a Berliner market. These Fettback, Bomben, Berliner, fat baked Berliners. We are doing in Germany more than 40% of these Berliners. There is a bread and baguette market. We are doing maybe 20%. It's always a bit of a question, what do you count as this product. There is not one number I could give you.
We should have the discussion constellation, product, and what is really the frame.
Okay. I have two strategic questions.
Think about the French chef.
The first one is on your food service business. This seems, if I look at your presence, this seems to be concentrated on, let's say, a few markets and not all markets you have, and it's a logistics-oriented business. Can you expand into new regions organically, or must this be done via acquisitions?
We cons-
If you wanted to go into, let's say, Germany.
We are in Germany with the food service business. We are in Germany, we are in France, we are in Ireland, we are in Poland via wholesalers, we are in Switzerland, we are in Japan and in Malaysia. All.
Hungary.
Hungary. Yeah. Exactly. To expand in a new world would mean acquiring. We are focused on focusing on the existing organization, leveraging these organizations, using their our strength. This is the plan we follow. You don't build it from zero in a place you are not present yet. That's unrealistic.
Okay. The last one on the retail business. It seems to me, you know, quite industrial-oriented, super cost-oriented. What is ARYZTA's advantage over in-house or competitors, you know, with regards to that cost structure? I mean, are your people cheaper? No. I mean, I guess you're using the same machines. Do you have size advantage?
We have been in Holland. These are leanest models based on a well-managed product assortment, very efficient, and highly innovative. This is a business which is investment intensive and very with a pressure on the renewal. You need to take the small steps every day, and this is the strength we have. We have a good footprint. We have a good assortment coverage. We have, in some circumstances, a very strong market position. We have a good innovation trend towards artisanality to value-added products. This is the cards we play. There is something else we realized that there were years, many years with overcapacity in this market. This overcapacity is slowly disappearing due to the fact that there are less investments.
The money becomes more expensive, the risks are there, and this is normally good for those who are driving the business in a good way. It's the most cost-sensitive business, absolutely correct. Big volume and strong protagonists on the other side, but with good innovation and good processes, there is a life in this business. Okay. We would then divide in two groups for the tasting. We have a Swiss group and a French group. I would suggest that maybe Martin is taking the right side from our side and heading towards the Swiss tasting in the canteen, the place we had coffee today, and the rest is coming with me, and we would go to the French tasting. After half of the hour, we would then change.
The French to Swiss and the Swiss to French. Okay.
Welcome back. Hope you enjoyed the tasting and looking forward for the lunch. I will now guide you through the value creation framework of our midterm plan. In the period 2023-2025, we will evolve from an inherited value destroying to a sustainably value creating business. The four key element of our value creation framework for this period are the continuous and consistent growth ahead of market momentum paired with prudent CapEx allocation, margin progression supported by disciplined cost management, acceleration of capital efficiency, and the use of cash flow from activities to improve our capital structure over the period of the midterm plan. At ARYZTA, we have developed a strategic planning process, and through this process, we can analyze our businesses in a standardized and consistent way.
In fact, the business plan we're presenting here is based on this tool. With this tool, we evaluate all our over 100 sales and evaluate their ability to win and the market attractiveness. A sale, just as an explanation, is a combination of a market, a category, and a channel. Based on the result of that tool, we determine the resource allocation. Resources we understand in CapEx and fixed cost. On May thirtieth, we have published our nine-month trading update, and we have delivered an acceleration of organic growth to 16.3%. This performance was strongly supported by a continuous strong volume growth and significant contribution from pricing. Given the strong market momentum, we have increased our guidance for 2022 to 14%-16%. This will build the basis for our midterm plan.
Urs has presented in the four levers of the gold standard our growth building blocks. Through this, we will deliver in the period 2022, 2023-2025 annual organic revenue growth of 4.5%-5.5% at consistent pricing. The two key components of that growth are fully capturing the market momentum, which grows around 2.6% per annum, and our strong innovation and premiumization pipeline. The innovation pipeline is built, as we have learned and seen upstairs, on health, on artisanal, and on ethical trends. Around 55%-60% of our growth in the period 2023-2025 is coming from the baseline business, the balance through the innovation process.
In order to support our growth and aligned with the outcome of the strategic planning process, we will invest CapEx of around 3.5%-4% of revenue on an annual basis over the period of the midterm plan. Around 30% of that CapEx is dedicated to our innovation and premiumization pipeline. The majority of that CapEx goes into new technologies and manufacturing capabilities. Let me give you one example. We have talked about the famous baguette, the traditional baguette, and the fact that we are investing there to improve the quality. We are putting sourdough capabilities to our existing line by installing fermentation and maturing tanks at the beginning of the line to produce the dough. Let the dough rest for over 20 hours.
That will create this specific structure that you've seen in that video, increase the taste and the overall consumer experience. Around 70% of that CapEx will be dedicated to our baseline business, where we will invest in improving the efficiency. We will make sure that the reliability of our current capacity is maintained, and we will invest our CapEx there in initiatives related to health, safety, and environment. Part of that CapEx of the 70% is also going to capacity increase, where we have reached the limits of our installed capacity, or to geographic expansion in areas in our baseline business where we are not yet fully present. Two examples to illustrate that. In Poland, we are inaugurating in October a new bun line supporting the growth of our key QSR customer.
We have recently acquired, and we have announced that, the bakery in Malaysia, which allows us to produce pastries, and Urs has talked about that. We can also start producing the pastries that are used there in the Asian Pacific region locally, and we have increased our laminated dough capabilities to service there the food service market. Important to highlight also with that growth that we are generating, the usage of the existing capacity will be increased by 5%-8% over the period of the midterm plan. In 2021, we have delivered an underlying EBITDA margin of 11.4% for the continued operation.
We expect to deliver for 2022, as we have guided in the fourth quarter, a pre-IFRS EBITDA run rate of 12.5%, and for the full year, deliver a significant improvement of our profitability versus the previous year. This is the basis of our long-term or midterm plan, and we expect, as Urs indicated before, to accelerate our EBITDA margin over the period by the end of 2025 to at least 14.5%. This will be delivered through improved product mix driven by premiumization and our innovation pipeline, as well as through disciplined cost management. Over the next couple of slides, I will give you some details or specific details on our disciplined cost management program. Before we go into that, what are we addressing?
We're addressing our total cost base, which has a split of about 2/3, which is variable, consisting mainly of all our expenses on raw packaging material, services, indirect material, and the variable labor cost of the shop floor, and around 1/3 of the cost is fixed. Our disciplined cost management is addressing that block with the four levers through continuous efficiency program addressing our bakeries, simplification of our recipe structure, the leverage of our global procurement, and the streamlining of our end-to-end processes to drive fixed cost leverage. The first three levers are clearly dedicated or in its majority dedicated to protect our gross margin, while the fourth lever is there to really leverage our margin progression. The first lever of our disciplined cost management program is the performance control system.
Performance control system is the program to drive continuous efficiency in our factories. This program has started in 2020, and we have now already covered 20 of our bakeries. The remaining six bakeries will be covered step by step by early 2023. Eight of our bakeries have already achieved highest levels of PCS standards and have delivered significant improvement in efficiency over the last couple of years. We have there two examples of these efficiency contributions. I'll elaborate on the second one, on the line efficiency. Since the launch in 2020 of PCS in these bakeries, these bakeries have achieved a line efficiency increase of 4 percentage points compared to the other bakeries. By addressing the downtime, the planned and the unplanned downtime, it
The crew have been trained to make sure and to observe what are the factors that are causing unplanned downtime to increase the reliability of the lines when they're running. We have worked on improving the time windows we needed for planned downtime like cleaning, changeover, and maintenance windows. You have to imagine it's like a Formula One pit stop. The crew is trained to change tires as fast as possible and as reliable as possible. That's how we have worked with the team as this is really focused on empowering the local people on the shop floor to drive these improvements together with their team leads, and this has delivered the 4 percentage points improvement over the last two and a half years.
Going forward, we expect to deliver efficiency gains of 2%-3% on an annual basis, and we're using the base of our conversion cost. Conversion cost is the sum of fixed and variable manufacturing cost, excluding raw and packaging material, and includes also depreciation. Plus, we also add to that our waste levels. On this, we expect to deliver 2%-3% efficiency gains. Through further driving line efficiency improvements by 5-10 percentage points with all our locations. Reduce our waste levels by about 50% by improving the accuracy on the production rate and reducing the rate of rejects, and also by increasing the labor efficiency by about 20% through automation, but as well as through training. The second lever of our disciplined cost management program is Project SIMPLEX.
This project aims at reducing the complexity in our portfolio and recipe structure. By bundling and driving scale, making sure that our supply chain and sourcing is de-risked, and by reducing the number of vendors we are dealing with. This allows us to drive efficiency in cost and capital. Important to highlight that, through this Project SIMPLEX, we are not compromising on the quality of our products. We have already started with this Project SIMPLEX, and we have two pilots running, and we have concluded that. I elaborate on the first one in Germany. In our two big manufacturing sites for all the SKUs we are producing there, we have been using a total of 87 different shipping cartons. We have run this exercise. We have identified an optimization potential of 53 shipping cartons.
We are now producing the same number of SKUs, but we're just using 34 shipping carton SKUs to ship these products. This has enabled us to reduce our packaging cost in the two locations by 7%. In this project, we have obviously considered the leverage we can generate in purchasing, but we have also considered the cost for the operation, what that means if we reduce the number of SKUs, and we have considered the implication that this has for our distribution setup and for our customers. Project SIMPLEX is a project that focuses on the whole value chain. For new products, we include the philosophy of SIMPLEX into the new product development project in order to develop simplicity by design.
Through Project SIMPLEX, over the period of our midterm plan from 2023 to 2025, we expect to deliver EUR 10 million-EUR 14 million of cost reduction, and we expect to cover all our manufacturing sites fully by the end of 2023. The aim of the implementation of our multi-local business model was to reduce our management structure and to drastically increase the focus of our local market organization. To support our local market organization with cost-competitive supply and de-risk our sourcing, we will plan to elevate category buying above market, improve process rigor of procurement, and by that increase the coverage of total spend of procurement, which is currently at around 60% to over 80% by the end of our midterm plan. In 2022, our procurement organization has already contributed significantly to the result of the company.
They have achieved cost optimization and cost reduction on total spend of 14% through strategic procurement negotiation, but also through adequate risk management. Over the period 2023-2025, we plan to deliver another EUR 16 million-EUR 22 million of cost reduction to support the business. At ARYZTA, we are using five different key ERPs. Process and data standardization is low and requires focus to achieve transactional efficiency. The digital interaction with our vendors and customers also is an area of opportunity. Around 60%-65% of our European retail orders are managed through EDI processes. Standardization of our IT landscape beyond the ERP is another area of opportunity. We are addressing these efficiency areas through several ways. Let me give you two example. One is the implementation of the new ERP in Switzerland.
We're using the change to SAP S/4HANA in Switzerland as the pilot to define the process standards for our five key end-to-end processes, order to cash, procure to pay, plan to execute, idea to launch, and record to report. These processes will be standardized for the Swiss market and then will be rolled out to the different locations of our operation. Important to highlight as well that with the implementation of SAP S/4HANA in Switzerland, SAP will now be covering over 60% of our group revenues. Another area to drive efficiency in processes is the launch of our web shop platform to service our food service and retail customers. We have implemented this webshop platform in four of our key food service markets, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Ireland.
Through this web platform, we have, which has been launched in 2019, we have increased the revenue share on total group revenue from 1.5% in 2020 to 2.4% year-to-date 2022. Through process end-to-end standardization and process efficiency, we'll be leveraging our fixed cost, and through that will limit the growth of our fixed cost to a minimum of 30%-40% of our organic growth over the period of our midterm plan. In summary, as I mentioned, the first three of these cost efficiency programs, continuous efficiency, simplification of our recipe, the leverage of our global procurement is driving the protection of our gross margin. Through the fourth one, the process standardization and the efficiencies of the processes, we will reduce our fixed cost growth.
With that, our fixed costs as a percentage of revenue will decrease to about 90% of what they are in 2022 by 2025. This is our biggest lever of margin progression together with the product mix that we have indicated before. We have changed our methodology to calculate return on invested capital. For the numerator, we will now use the trailing twelve month of net operating profit after tax. Previously, we have used the underlying EBITDA. The denominator has also changed. In the appendix of that presentation, you will find a complete reconciliation between the old and the new way of calculating. Based on this new way of calculation, we expect to deliver for 2022 a return on invested capital of circa 5%.
Over the period of the midterm plan, we expect to accelerate the return on invested capital to at least 11%. The key drivers for this result achievement are the margin progression driven by disciplined cost management and premiumization of our product portfolio, the disciplined CapEx investment, further improvement of our working capital through integrated business planning, as well as the extension of our supplier financing program. We'll complement that with analytics and an adequate incentive plan, a long-term incentive plan, which includes return on invested capital for management. As guided in the H1 result presentation for full year 2022, we expect to deliver operating free cash flow of EUR 80 million-EUR 90 million. The resulting cash flow from activities for 2022 will be in the range of EUR 5million -15 million.
Over the midterm plan, we expect to accelerate our operating free cash flow by circa 2x-2.5x , and our cash flow from activities by circa 8x-10x where we are today. This will be possible through the increased performance and improved and absolute EBITDA levels, the continued focus on our disciplined CapEx investment, and improved working capital management over the period. The generation of cash flow will support step by step the reduction of our total net debt level, including hybrids, from 2021 to 2025, and combined with increased absolute EBITDA levels, we will reduce leverage of total net debt and hybrids from currently 7.5x to around 3x by the end of the plan. With the cash generated from the activities, we plan to repay our euro hybrid principal in full in a staged way.
Concrete methodology and timing will be communicated in due time. This will be entirely financed through the performance of our business, and we will achieve interest savings once the complete euro hybrid principal has been paid back of fifteen to seventeen million euros on an annual basis. This part is part of our achievement of the leverage of 3.5x by 2025 or 3x by 2025. In summary, the key levers of our value creation framework is deliver annual revenue growth of 4.5%-5.5% at consistent pricing, fully capturing the market momentum and leveraging our innovation and renovation pipeline together with the premiumization activity. Margin progression of at least 4.5% by 2025, supported by our disciplined cost management program.
Our prudent CapEx investment of 3.5%-4.5% to drive capital efficiency. Acceleration of ROIC to at least 11% by 2025, supported not only by improved profitability, but also by further increased efficiency of our working capital. Driving an improvement of our capital structure by the cash flow generated through operation and pay down the euro hybrid. Thank you for your attention.
Thank you, Martin. Now we would.
Open for questions.
Open for question. For questions, I would hand over the microphone to invite our guests in the live stream to listen as well. Just yeah, it's on. Patrick, just the next question.
Thank you. Patrick Schwendimann, Zürcher Kantonalbank. What do you see as the major risks to not reach this 14.5% EBITDA margin for the next couple of years? That's my first question. Second question regarding the hybrids. There's also a variable components with it, also for the Eurobond as well as for the Swiss franc bonds. It seems that you're partly hedged for the variable components of the Eurobond. What about the Swiss franc bonds? If interest rates, let's assume, would go back to zero or even in positive yields. Thank you.
Let me take the second question first. In terms of the interest rates, the Swiss bonds are accruing on a quarterly basis. The Euro bond is fixed until March 2024. That hopefully clarifies the question on if we are hedged or not. Until then, the rate of 6.82% is fixed.
Great then. For the Swiss francs, not. If at the end of the year, maybe interest rates would go back to zero, then you would have to pay it higher.
If the question goes to the EUR 14-EUR 15, EUR 17 million interest savings, that is calculated obviously based on a consideration of evolving interest rates.
Mm-hmm. Okay.
In terms of the risk, do you wanna take that first, or shall I elaborate?
I mean, there is a world out there which became quite lively. I believe we are well organized on the commercial operational part, in the finance part of the business. Not every impact can be anticipated. If the picture continues the way we see that inflation will continue to grow, price pressure will be there. Our competitors will be stressed, hopefully more than we are. The consumers and customers will continue to look after their money. The environment is a good one for us. Now, we do not know what the war does. We don't know where inflation goes, and COVID will come back like a boomerang in September. There will be regulations. We had this in the past. We did a good learning curve.
We protected our operations, manufacturing plants, our logistics towards COVID. Well, we had twice a short close down in Asia. We are very well balanced in the customer portfolio. If this part loses, this part wins. I think we are well prepared to manage these targets, and the reality will then bring the rest.
I think we have highlighted the context before we presented our ambition. It's on us to manage that context in a meaningful way to deliver these results.
We are living in an economy where the necessary spend over the lower third of the income is more or less 50%. You take rent, you take food, you take transportation, insurance, and whatever it is. This 50% became 60% or 65% or even 70%. There are Eastern European countries, there are Asian countries where this is even more extreme. As I told, and this is not just a saying, it's a good place to be in bread. Bread, again, is an efficient calorie, an ecological calorie, and it's a economical calorie. This will be for our favor. This is not from me. The big chocolate man in Switzerland, Ernst Tanner told in times when people can't afford the big luxurious stuff, they will buy the small ones.
I think we are well prepared for a longer period of difficulties.
Great.
Just use your microphone.
Thanks. It's Joern from UBS. Two questions, please. The first one is on your regions, in particular, looking at Germany. I mean, we can see the accounts on the internet. What are the next steps you are doing in Germany to fix the regions, and how long do you think it will need until it is generating sufficient profitability? The second question would be, please, Martin, to you.
On the EBITDA margin bridge, you stated the exit rate is confirmed 12.5% pre-IFRS by Q4 2022. This is 14% post IFRS, roughly. Then until 2025, it's then 14.5%+ , so minimum 500 basis points. Sorry, 50 basis points. This is over three years, 50 basis points margin improvement. Is this a conservative target of 14.5%, and you're looking for 16%, 17%, or what should we read into this one?
I think we said at least 14.5%. I think it is a reasonable target. We are committed to that. There is some seasonality in our business, clearly. We see that as a reasonable target, which you can base your plans on.
Okay.
Maybe the Germany question. Let's divide Germany in three parts. You have a quick serve restaurant part, which is the burger bun part you have seen. So we exclude this. This is a QSR business. We have a food service business similar to the French business we have. So let's separate this. Basically, I think your question is towards this, the retail and grocery business. This is a big business. Simplex is helping us to streamline processes to have a close eye on costs. Pricing is key, just the way we told. It's important to follow with pricing and to make sure that the investments which are going there are efficient. I think the challenge we have there is on a good way. It never ends, so it's like an escalator. It's running against you.
You have to run faster than the movement towards you. The activities we are now harder and harder pushing are finding their results clearly. There is a premiumization of the product. There are some products we then maybe just stop to produce or mutate, move the lines into other product categories. It's not one thing which leads us to the target. There are all these activities we mentioned, and it's an ongoing game. That's the way it is.
Thanks.
JP.
Jean-Philippe Bertschy from Vontobel. You show a slide this morning. It was your Bible, apparently, as you said. I didn't see any comment on ESG. If you can share with us probably some comments on ESG and if you have some targets, if any. The second one would be on your long-term incentive plan. You gave us some financial targets now for 2025. What are the components or the parameters for the long-term incentive plan? I think, Martin, you gave working capital as one.
No, ROIC.
The ROIC.
ROIC.
ROIC. Sorry, the ROIC. What are the others and what is the weighting? Do you have ESG targets in the LTI?
Martin will then go for the numbers and/or the medium-term rationale targets. ESG was a stepchild in the past for ARYZTA. We just started almost from scratch. It's on a good progress. We will report on this with the annual report. There's a lot of progress done and by coincidence progress done which is supporting the business performance as well. I mean, having megawatt-hour prices which almost doubled in the last six or 12 months with other impact factors which as well are significantly higher. There is a clear interest to go after this. There are close projects with customers developing this, not only with the big ones. This became a very, shall I say, in the real-life used topic. In detail, we will report on this at the year-end.
Yeah.
Now, the LTIP is new designed. It's in line with these targets we have and is based on pillars. Martin?
ROIC, EBITDA and relative TSR evolution.
New definition of ROIC. The one we have seen.
The weighting of these three elements?
ROIC and EBITDA is each 40% and 20% is TSR.
TSR. Andreas.
Yeah. Historically, there have been a lot of adjustments in the accounts at ARYZTA. I mean, you have presented now your 25 target. Could you update on what if there's any one-time/restructuring costs in 2023, 2024, 2025, or can we now just expect kind of pure numbers going forward? First question. Second one is on the CapEx. I mean, that's higher, I would say, than, you know, what we had in the past. Historically, I think, you know, often it was spoken about 2.5%, something like that, probably rather for the maintenance part. Do you think that 3.5%-4% is a similar level than your competitors have? Is that just the reality of the bake-off? The last question. You mentioned net working capital optimization.
Could you give here an update on, let's say, magnitude or, you know, how big, important relative pillar that could be in the free cash flow expansion? Here also, I mean, what part securitization will play for ARYZTA going forward? Thank you.
Okay. The last one on free cash flow and securitization, I will then hand over to Martin. Apologies. There are some adjustments for this year, fiscal year 2022. Some single EUR millions, and then it is over. We stop this practice. 2023, 2024, 2025 will be clean. The investment of 3.5%-4%, it's hard to compare with competitors. It's more comparable with the past. I think this is a sporty target, but a doable target. It's all about value creating. We still have spare capacity, which is a good thing, in my belief. We are close to 80%, so there's a 20% way to go. We have seen what the volume growth will be over the next three years.
I believe 3.5% to let the business run and to add one or the other capacity is a valid and correct target. Competitors can be lower the moment they start to milk or to slow down the business. They can be higher in moments investing in projects or there it is. I think this number below 5% is a bit the industry.
On the securitization, we have a program that's a total of EUR 130 million. At year one, we have used EUR 76 million. When looking over the period of our midterm plan, we will gradually notch up to that limit of EUR 130 million. Over the period of the midterm plan, we will use up the complete envelope that we have, that we currently have. Let's put it like this. When it comes to the contribution of working capital, what we have started to measure working capital on not just in terms of the contribution of cash, but also as a percentage of revenue. We are measuring the organization on their own working capital, excluding the securitization, and have given them targets to improve their working capital as a percentage of sales.
We're not looking just at the working capital at the end of the period. We're taking a five-quarter average. They need to consistently manage their working capital. They cannot just slash and burn activities, do a good thing at the end of the year to polish the number. We want to see a consistent improvement of working capital and, as an internal measure, we are starting to look, and we are starting to orient the organization towards that. When it comes to your question of what is the contribution to the cash generation of working capital benefits, it is at the beginning of our plan in 2023, we expect it to be in the range of 15%-20% on the cash generated from activity.
Towards the end, it will be around 8%-9%. The majority of the cash is coming from the improved absolute profit levels that we achieve through the organization.
Working capital management is not the challenge towards the reporting, it's a challenge towards the capital costs. This is the way we treat.
It is like, it is sort of a, one of the first health indicators that we preach to the organization, like gross margin protection. It's gross margin and working capital management that is, key elements to drive the performance.
I think just to add to JP's question, the timing around the LTIP, that this is a three-year period.
Yeah. I forgot that one.
Yeah. More questions?
Stefan Frischknecht from Schroders. I was wondering regarding the hybrid payback, what is the reason to focus on the euro tranche only? There's two Swiss franc tranches, if I remember correctly. Is that just outside of the planning period? How did you decide it should be the euro that you're going to pay back and not any parts of the Swiss franc hybrids?
It is our most.
It's the cost.
Our most expensive instrument.
By far. The euro hybrid one is the most expensive. Almost 7% interest.
Six.
It's adding interest on interest. It's the closest one then.
I'm fully aware that currently there is a very small difference between longer-term fixed interest rates in Germany and in Switzerland. I mean, this is a quite rare situation that the Eidgenossen and the Bund have almost the same yield over 10 years. Typically in Swiss francs, your base interest will also be lower. That makes me wonder, is it just a snapshot consideration of cost, or do you think also longer term you're paying a much higher currency-adjusted spread in the euro?
Look, we are looking obviously constantly at our capital structure and the way we can further optimize our interest cost. What clearly turns out that the euro hybrid is the one to address. Continued business performance will allow us also to look at other options to address our capital structure over time. We'll certainly take these into consideration once we can manage that within the covenants that we currently have. Over the period of the long-term plan or the midterm plan, we have ample room in our covenants, both on the leverage as well as on the interest.
I think we have done a good job in renovating our RCF at the right moment. That has allowed us to secure for the next couple of years very competitive interest rates.
More questions? Yeah, Patrick.
Okay. I'm Patrik Schwendimann, Zürcher Kantonalbank. Could you just have a word on the competitive situation currently? How do your competitors behave in the market? Are there good and bad competitors, or how do you see this?
There are indeed good and bad competitors. At the moment we sold the quick service burger bun business in Brazil to Bimbo. They told you are a good competitor, with the meaning, you have a business and you provided us a business and you're looking for margin, which protects their margin as well. There was a time at the beginning of this wave when some protagonists just tried to build a time bridge to hope it would come back to the good old times. There was a time when the conclusion came that this does not work, and then this was the hectic phase. Overall, there is a conclusion and a shared common understanding in the market that the pricing needs to be correct everywhere.
It's in Germany the case, it's in Asia the case, it's in QSR, in food service, everywhere. There is always somebody who tries to knock out gravity. This works then for some days, weeks, maybe month, but then it is over. The big and the good competitors, they are going after pricing. There is a bit resistance from time to time from some protagonists. The industrial bakery or the issue bakery products have is that the bread, some basic bread products are in price index baskets. It's then measured what the inflation is. Not only the inflation in the market as well, the inflation for a customer. The customers are comparing themselves according to this price index. There is one or the other discussion around then more needed.
At the end of the day, every customer has an interest to have a financial stability in the supplier landscape. Not having this, ARYZTA customers experienced this over years, to have a not really solid partner. If this not really solid partner disappears from the landscape, a capacity disappears 'cause it is not in the interest of the entire value chain. There is if we meet somebody or talking to somebody in the industry, pricing costs is the big elephant everywhere.
What about insourcing? Is there any risk for the next couple of years, or?
That's a bit over. Insourcing, a lot of insourcing was done into the fresh business, which is anyway not our business. The last bigger project have been finished 2015, which is the Bonback investment. I think we need to see clear. The environment for bigger investments became much more difficult. The uncertainty is here. Nobody knows what the raw material does, the energy does. We all hang on gas. There is almost no bakery not being provided with gas. The salary costs are increasing. The money costs, the interests will go out. There is a phase closed with this insourcing. There is no bigger project out there at the moment.
Thank you.
I think you had a question.
Yeah. You've done several price increases already, of course. Have you seen any direct impact on the volumes afterwards?
It's an up and down. Some volumes you lose, some volumes you gain. That's the way it is. We profit or give away. Let me be honest, that there is no other way to deal with this. The volume growth you have seen, it's quite solid for Q3. The big target we have is that a product, a volume, a customer is correct priced. If somebody else have a different version of Excel or whatever it is, and this brings better results, so we leave them with the volume. Overall, our volume is growing. If we wouldn't get the pricing for a certain volume, we would give the volume away. That's clear. Having underpriced volume running into capacity shortage is toxic, and we will avoid this.
You've seen in the first nine months, we have strong double-digit volume growth. Despite the pricing that we're taking, we have had up to the last month of our Q3 was over 7% pricing. It continues to grow, and as we indicated, we will continue to increase pricing in this quarter. There is negotiation happening as we speak.
There is something else. Just Patrick asked about the capacity. Not only capacity investments became less, as well, transportation became more difficult due to availability and costs, and bakery products travel badly. It's big volume for a low price. The sourcing environment for bakery products became more narrowed, which is good. We have a nice footprint. We are present in Germany and Switzerland. In the other countries, we are. You have heard about the French platform system. This is a good protector. At the bitter end, if a volume is not priced, again, to your question, we need to increase the prices or we have to give the volume away. That's the clear rationale. Everybody looking forward for the factory tour, most probably. Last question. Philippe, all done? Okay, now to the organization. We messed up today morning, the tasting.
We went all first to the Swiss and to the French. Okay, we need to be more precise now, otherwise we lose each other in the bakery. We will divide the group into three subgroups with three guides. You will get a headset. You then would have to leave your rings and your watches and everything here. We then collect this and sell it via internet. That's a joke. Financing the year-end invitation. Okay. We would have a short introduction session now with Cornelius. Cornelius is the head of operation here in this nice plant. We'll show you some figures and numbers and some safety guidance, and would then go for a tour. You will see Swiss Sunday bread, breads and rolls, vanilla bar, and Gipfeli.
All the products being sold mainly in Swiss retail, Swiss food service, and wherever it is here. We stay for a moment here. I will pick up Cornelius, and then we would do his short part here, and moving then from here to the factory tour. We will have two, three minutes, and then Cornelius will be here.