ARYZTA AG (SWX:ARYN)
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May 6, 2026, 5:19 PM CET
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Earnings Call: H1 2024

Aug 12, 2024

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gntlemen, and welcome to ARYZTA half-year results 2024 conference. The call will be hosted by Urs Jordi, Chairman and CEO, and Martin Huber, the CFO. There will be a presentation followed by Q&A. This call is being recorded. Now, I would like to hand over to Paul Meade, Head of Investor Relations, to open the call. Please go ahead.

Paul Meade
Head of Investor Relations, ARYZTA

Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. I would just like to remind everyone that our risks and uncertainty statement on slide two of our presentation applies to all of today's discussions. I would now like to hand over to Urs Jordi, our Chairman and CEO.

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

Thank you, Paul. Good morning. Welcome to the ARYZTA H1 2024 results call. On page number four, you can see the key highlights of the first half year to June 2024. Revenue accounts for EUR 1.055 billion of revenue. Innovation share almost doubled on 19.4%. The organic growth is slightly negative, volume is flat. The EBITDA accounts for EUR 149.8 million. The margin is on 14.2%. As you have read, most probably, there will be a hybrid bond repurchase coming. The organic growth strategy is still intact. The H1 volume growth was impacted by an active portfolio management, which costed us 2.5% of volume. QSR recovery is ongoing. There is a pressured consumer spending out there. This impacted our revenue in the first half of the year.

Most of this was offset by strong innovation and new customers, and with new customers, new listings. Pricing and mix was slightly negative. There were some tactical pricing reductions. Cost inflation trends are unchanged. Negative mix continues to improve sequentially as expected. Innovation is still a key performance driver and almost doubled to 19.4% of revenue, mainly on artisanal products, buns, pastries. Premium products are accounting now at 40% of revenue. We had a solid organic growth performance in France, Switzerland, Denmark, Poland, Fornetti, and rest of the world. Other food service performed strongly in most markets. There's a continued improvement visible and recovery in quick service restaurant, rest of the world. On page 7, then you see the investments in innovation, which will lead to further growth. There are state-of-the-art innovation center in Germany being on the way.

This will be available for everybody in the group for H1 2025. It's covering ARYZTA's entire portfolio capabilities and will serve all customers, all channels. New incremental capacities are coming on stream to leverage consumer trends. In Malaysia, a laminated dough line will be operational towards end of this year already. A Swiss laminated dough line will be operational beginning of 2025. A German artisanal dough line being operational mid-2025, and the Perth investment, as you know, is well underway, operational in 2025, towards the year end. All of this investment will enable us to generate volume, new products to serve more customers. On page 8, then, the commitments. There is one remaining midterm target to deliver. The others are delivered. There is a new CEO appointed.

The dual role will end of this year, beginning of next year, 2025. There will be new midterm targets in H1 2025, communicated to the market, and we will continue to invest in innovation and in growth. H2 performance is to improve. We reiterate the guidance for 2024. We maintain organic growth as expected in H2, which will improve through innovations and listings to further recovery in quick service restaurants. Seasonally, H2 is stronger than H1. There will be a significantly reduced impact from active portfolio management, therefore, more favorable comps in H2 for ARYZTA. We confirm the guidance for the rest of the year and will further improve in all key metrics.

Organic growth in the low to mid-single digit range, continued EBITDA margin expansion, supported by growth, efficiencies, and cost discipline, further improvement in free cash flow and total net debt leverage, sequential improvement in ROIC. On page 10, you see then the five of the six midterm targets, which are delivered: the organic growth, the ROIC, the revenue, the CapEx, and the no net debt leverage, including hybrids. The 14.5% EBITDA margin, we will deliver as well. I would hand over now to Martin Huber, to our CFO, for the financial review.

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

Thank you, Urs. We move now to slide 12. Good morning, everyone. I'm really pleased to present another very strong financial performance in the first six months of 2024, despite the continuing challenging macro environment. The key highlights are: profitability has reached new heights, supported by Active Portfolio Management and consistent execution of our innovation strategy. Once again, we have proven our ability to deliver solid cash flow despite higher CapEx, driven by future growth and IT projects. We have achieved the midterm target of the total net debt leverage ratio ahead of schedule, supported by strong business performance. The return on invested capital has further improved and is now reaching bakery industry top quartile levels. We have refinanced our credit facility and are well-placed to address our legacy financing position and tap into significant interest arbitrage savings. Let's move now to slide 13.

We delivered an organic growth of -0.7%, with flat volume growth in H1. The effects of the active portfolio management executed in 2023, the subdued consumer sentiment, the geopolitical impact on our Asian QSR business, and the strong comparable base explain our organic growth performance in H1. We expect to improve in H2 towards the full year organic growth in the low to mid-single digit range. This will be supported by a good pipeline of growth with existing customers, the strong innovation pipeline, the recovery of QSR, as well as the significantly reduced effects of the portfolio management and more favorable quarterly comps. Despite a flat revenue evolution, we further accelerated our EBITDA margin by 100 basis points to 14.2%. This improvement is driven by active portfolio management, the contribution from margin-enhancing innovation, as well as our disciplined cost management.

Free cash flow reached solid levels with EUR 53 million. The difference versus H1 2023 is mainly driven by higher investment in growth and IT-related CapEx, and lower but positive contribution from working capital. These effects are partially compensated by higher profitability and lower financing costs. The strong profit improvement and the continued disciplined management of our invested capital accelerated the ROIC to 13.1%, further increasing value creation for our shareholders. Let's move now to slide 14. Revenue decreased in H1 by 0.5% to EUR 1,055 million. FX added 0.2% to our revenue performance, while organic growth was -0.7%.

Good levels of organic growth in our food service channel, with continued solid performance in France, helped to partially compensate the effects of portfolio management and the muted consumer sentiment in the retail channel, as well as the impacts of geopolitical events on QSR. The resulting overall volume growth was flat, despite the circa 250 basis points effect of our active portfolio management, which we executed mainly in Ireland and U.K. last year. Pricing turned slightly negative due to some tactical price concessions in a few businesses in Europe. For the full year, we expect pricing to be flattish and do not expect a deflationary trend to emerge. Mix of a negative 0.3% improved sequentially. This trend is expected to continue for the full year. Let's move to slide 15.

Europe delivered a negative organic growth of -1.1%, mainly driven by some tactical pricing concessions in certain markets, as well as by continued subdued consumer sentiment. Volume growth was slightly positive at 0.1%, reflecting the negative impact of active portfolio management to exit lower margin business. At the same time, this value over volume strategy supported a significant improvement of EBITDA margin by 140 basis points to 13.6%. Worth calling out that positive organic growth in some of our key European markets like France, Switzerland, Denmark, Poland, and Fornetti, which was supported by the resilient food service channel performance, but also by good retail revenue.... Improved share of innovation on total revenue, as well as the contribution from active portfolio management, were the key drivers of the margin acceleration. We move now to slide 16.

Rest of World showed a resilient business performance with an organic growth of 2.8% and an EBITDA margin of 18.7%. The important QSR business, significantly impacted by the geopolitical events, sequentially improved organic growth in the second quarter to mid-single digit levels. Volume in QSR turned positive in Q2 in Rest of World. Foodservice, on the other hand, continues to drive growth despite a strong comparable base. EBITDA margin is below last year. Key contributor to this drop is the QSR business. With the continued recovery of this channel expected in H2, we also expect to improve the margin performance in the second half of the year. Let's move now to slide 17.

Stronger improvement of the gross margin of 290 basis points versus previous year is the driver of the overall EBITDA margin progression from 13.2% in H1 2023 to 14.2% in H1 2024. This gross margin acceleration is supported by the consistent focus on our innovation strategy, improving the share of margin-enhancing products, and the actions taken to discontinue low-margin businesses. This resulted in a contribution of circa 190 basis points of this improvement. Cost optimization from our procurement and Simplex initiatives, as well as some input cost tailwind, added another 100 basis points to the gross margin improvement. This benefit helped to offset the circa 100 basis points increase in labor cost within distribution and SG&A.

Although SG&A, as a percentage of revenue, is 130 basis points above the same period last year, it is broadly flat as a percentage of revenue versus H2 2023. With this increase of our EBITDA margin to 14.2%, we are well on track to deliver our midterm target of at least 14.5%. Let's move now to slide 18. We continue to make good progress in our cost discipline and efficiency measures. In operations, we are within the 2%-3% target range. Continued focus on labor and line efficiency have helped to mitigate part of the significant inflationary labor-driven cost increase of circa 100 basis points in manufacturing. Furthermore, we have made good progress in the rolling out of our target costing progress in a few of our pilot factories in Europe.

We expect to deliver circa EUR 4 million cost optimization for the period 2024 to 2025 in these pilot factories from this program. Procurement is strongly supporting the value creation framework of the group. We are now covering 70% of the global spend and are delivering with Project Simplex, accumulated cost optimization of more than EUR 28 million since the start of the midterm plan. In H1 2024 alone, circa EUR 10 million cost benefits have been delivered. We expect to exceed the higher end of the target range by 2025. Structural costs are growing ahead of organic growth in H1, driven by inflationary wage and salary increases, as well as other input cost increases. However, we are making good progress with our long-term efficiency project. The shared service center in Poland is live.

We have the next two businesses in transition and are preparing for the onboarding of two additional businesses in Europe. In addition, our ERP standardization roadmap is progressing as well and should help us to further simplify our processes. Can we move to slide 19? In H1, we delivered once more solid free cash flow of EUR 53 million, demonstrating the consistent cash generation ability of our business. The difference to the previous year is, was mainly due to the following: The improved profitability of the business in H1 delivered almost EUR 10 million incremental EBITDA. This, together with the almost EUR 11 million lower financing costs, allowed to partially compensate the circa EUR 13 million higher CapEx to support growth and IT projects, and the circa EUR 26 million lower, but positive contribution from working capital movement. Let's move to the next slide, please.

Despite the lower contribution from working capital improvements to free cash flow in H1, we continue to improve the efficiency of our working capital. The consistent management of our trade working capital through our group-wide initiatives is delivering results. Since Q1 2023, we have improved the efficiency of trade working capital as a percentage of revenue by 170 basis points to 1.3%. We move now to slide 21. The solid performance in H1, with improved profitability and good levels of cash generation, combined with the results of the hybrid buyback program, reduced total net debt to EUR 927 million. At the same time, our total leverage ratio further progressed to 2.9 times. With this, we have reached another milestone of our midterm plan ahead of schedule. Let's move on to slide 22.

Our financing costs, including hybrid dividends, decreased by circa EUR 2.3 million to EUR 33.5 million. With this, we are well on track to deliver the financing cost at the lower end of our guidance for the full year. The hybrid buyback program generated EUR 7.1 million in gross financing cost savings. These more than compensated the gross increase of our financing cost of EUR 4.8 million, due to higher weighted average interest costs in borrowing as well as FX. These were partially mitigated in H1 by the repayment of EUR 65 million of our RCF, supported by solid cash generation and further increased efficiency of our cash pooling facility, as well as by the continuous interest rate hedging, which is now covering 50% of the current RCF drawing. We move to slide 23.

At the beginning of August, we have agreed a new RCF for EUR 930 million. With this new facility, we have refinanced the existing EUR 500 million RCF and repaid the term loan. Through this financing, we have extended the maturity to five years, added additional headroom, simplified the balance sheet structure, and generated the additional flexibility to further progress with a hybrid buyback program. Worth highlighting, the new EUR 930 million RCF is substantially based on the same terms and conditions as the existing RCF. We expect to address the remaining EUR 325.4 million of the EUR 400 million hybrid on the next call date in 2024. This will generate annual interest savings of circa EUR 11.5 million in 2025 and create further value to our shareholders. We move to the next slide, please.

Strong improvement in our profitability, combined with a disciplined and efficient management of our invested capital, has further improved our ROIC to 13.1%. With this, we are now approaching top quartile levels of the bakery industry and are delivering strong levels of economic profit for our shareholders. We move to slide 25. The double-digit EPS improvement is supported by strong operational performance and our disciplined management of our financing costs. Profit before tax increased 10%, while income tax doubled. This increase in tax was primarily driven by the recognition of lower deferred tax credits attributable to loss carryforwards in H1 2024 versus the comparable prior period. Concluding with slide 26.

In summary, H1 2024 financial performance is a result of the consistent execution of our strategy, driving value through our innovation-led organic growth focus, disciplined management of our cost optimization programs, and the continued progress on our balance sheet restructuring. We are well on track to deliver the last outstanding target of our midterm plan, and I look forward to updating you on our continued progress at the full year results announcement next March. Thank you very much.

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

Thank you, Martin. We will now step into the Q&A session. Feel free to raise your questions.

Operator

Sure. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, your question and answer session will now begin. If you wish to ask a question from the conference call, please press star one on your phone. If you change your mind and decide to withdraw your question, simply press star two. You will be advised when your line is open to ask a question. We'll pause for a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions. We will take the first question from line, Patrik from ZKB. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

Patrik Schwendimann
Senior Equity Analyst, ZKB

Yeah, Patrik Schwendimann, ZKB. Good morning, Urs. Good morning, Martin. Congrats for the much improved debt situation. That's really great. My first question is regarding the organic growth development, this 2.5 negative impact in U.K. and Ireland. I guess this was already known at the beginning of the year. What has otherwise changed since the start of the year in terms of the environment was a little bit more challenging than expected? That's my first question. Second question, also regarding the organic growth. What's your best guess now for 2025, with all these new lines going live next year, how much support we expect from this side for the organic growth for 2025? And last question regarding EBITDA margin.

You already have reached 14.2% in H1. Typically, for the seasonality, H2 should be a little bit better. So what's your best guess here for the full year? Many thanks.

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

Thank you, Patrick. Good morning. I will take the questions in the order you raised. First, for the organic growth, the world changed in the meantime. As we have mentioned, there is a geopolitical environment which is very dynamic. Everybody is affected by this, we as well. There is a consumer sentiment, which is a bit more stressed since some months or even a bit longer. So we are there in the same world as everybody else, but we have good projects, a good pipeline with new customers, new listings, new products in the pipeline, so we are confident to get the targets for the year end 2024. 2025, we don't give any guidance for an organic growth, but obviously the investments they need to pay out.

Let me go maybe into this again. Malaysia is installing a really state-of-the-art laminated dough line for pretzels, croissants, pain au chocolat, pastries, snacks. This should bring us really into the pole position for this assortment in this part of the world. Then there is a new lamination line going live in Switzerland towards end of this year. In Switzerland, in the production capacity, there are some bottlenecks we will remove with this. There is a sourdough line for 2025 in Germany going online. This brings obviously as well an incremental turnover and the Perth investment with the burger line going online in October 2025. On top of this, we have a project about general overview in the Polish production landscape, which will help us there as well to go onward.

So no concrete numbers, but there are many good projects, so we are really increasing our activity in this high value added product segment.

Patrik Schwendimann
Senior Equity Analyst, ZKB

Malaysia and Germany will go live when?

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

Malaysia will go or is live already. Perth, this is in August, stepwise going live. Switzerland will go live towards the year end. This year, beginning of next year, Germany will go live somehow autumn 2025, Perth, October, November 2025.

Patrik Schwendimann
Senior Equity Analyst, ZKB

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

EBITDA, Martin.

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

Hi, Patrik.

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

Hi, Martin.

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

As we have guided at the beginning of the year, we expect to deliver the 14.5% in two equal steps. We have shown now a nice progression towards that midpoint in H1. As I said at the beginning of the year, we hold that still true, so we have a continued improvement overall versus this previous year towards the 14.5%. So I would use this as the guidance.

Patrik Schwendimann
Senior Equity Analyst, ZKB

Does it make sense to expect that H2 for the seasonality should be slightly higher, at least?

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

I would stick to my statement that we will improve profitability more or less in two equal steps.

Patrik Schwendimann
Senior Equity Analyst, ZKB

All right. Many thanks, Urs. Many thanks, Martin.

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

Thank you.

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

Thank you, Patrik.

Operator

Thank you. We will take the next question from line, Joern Iffert from UBS. The line is open now, please go ahead.

Jörn Iffert
Stock Analyst, UBS

Good morning, Urs. Good morning, Martin. Just to double-check, can you hear me?

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

Yes.

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

Yes.

Jörn Iffert
Stock Analyst, UBS

Thanks. 2-3 questions, please, and if it's okay, I would take them one by one. This portfolio optimization in U.K. and Ireland, can you give us some more details, which product categories exactly it was, going into which channels? And from your wording, that this is not a track anymore in the second half, it was starting already, last year in summer. Just to double-check this, but some more details here would be appreciated. Maybe start with this one.

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

Okay. Good morning, Joern again. Let me start first with the portfolio. It was mainly a U.K. project, but it was not only U.K., it was Germany, to a certain extent, it was Hungary, to a certain extent. We are living in times with big inflations. Pricing need to be correct, and if there are challenges with pricing or margins, we just need to take decisions. These decisions we took, as you know, so it's mainly U.K. and Hungarian, and the German decision we have took. Now, the second part of the question, I didn't really understand. Could you repeat this?

Jörn Iffert
Stock Analyst, UBS

Yes. Thanks for the color already. I mean, which product lines and in which channels it was? Was it in the retail channel in particular?

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

Retail.

Jörn Iffert
Stock Analyst, UBS

Discount channel?

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

Retail, both discount, yes.

Jörn Iffert
Stock Analyst, UBS

Okay. So actually, you could not agree on a certain price point, and then, I mean, you decided to more or less stop this contract or this product line?

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

Correct.

Jörn Iffert
Stock Analyst, UBS

... Okay, thanks. And the second question, please, on pricing. I mean, you said tactical price adjustments, and can you clarify this? Where exactly, again, which, which product categories and which channels, and what gives you confidence that we are not entering a deflation environment now for the next 12-24 months, given the lower input cost you're also showing in your gross profit margin bridge?

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

You will understand that we can't lay out customers and lines where this happened. It was in the discount and retail channel. We are quite there were price or cost levels which were very volatile over the last some months, so we had to address this with some customers in some constellations. You know, for example, that in the quick service restaurant world, there are pricing mechanisms which are then reflecting this, so all of this impacted the this pricing. Now, for the time onwards, we rather see a challenged harvest for example wheat in this year. You have read the news in Financial Times, in French, German, Eastern European newspapers. We are seeing a butter price in Europe on an all-time high level.

There is labor cost inflation still there. In Germany, there are big discussions around this, so we do not really see a big deflation trend, mid and long term looming. This does not seem to be realistic for us.

Jörn Iffert
Stock Analyst, UBS

Okay, thank you. And the last question, please, on your 2024 organic sales outlook. I mean, to reach the low- to mid-single-digit growth for the full year would imply quite a steep recovery in the second half. I mean, let's assume QSR would not recover, in a tough macro environment. What is really driven by sales health via new contract sign, new product lines coming on stream? Is this adding 2-3 percentage points organic growth for the second half, or is it more or less? Just to understand what you need from macro and what you need from sales health to achieve your targets.

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

We need the plans to be realized. We have for a second half of the year, as I mentioned in the beginning, there's a pipeline, looking forward list with, projects, with customers, new listings, products, and we are optimistic to get most of this or maybe a bit more, realized. We hope that, the environment is, becoming improved. I most probably forget to add one point, which affected H1 as well. There was almost no summer until mid of July. Summer is a good momentum for our products, for barbecue season, for traveling, for, consumption out of home. So all these impact factors will, negatives, hopefully improve for second half of the year. And again, we have strong pipeline projects. There is a clear focus on this organic growth.

Let me add maybe another statement I keep repeating: Growth, volume growth can be short-term volatile. Mid and long-term volume and organic growth will be positive. This is a characteristic of our business. The first half year, as we told already before, was a challenging half year, so we believe the second half year, with all the activities, will be, will show improvements.

Jörn Iffert
Stock Analyst, UBS

Thank you very much for all the clarifications. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. We will take the next question from line, Andreas von Arx from Baader. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

Andreas von Arx
Stock Analyst, Baader

Yeah, good morning. I also have a couple of questions, and I think I will also take them one by one. First, the theme I would like to talk about is CapEx. On those projects that you have announced, I would like to understand how much is here, push or pull. So from those additional lines, are they already sold out with, you know, contracts with potential customers, or you're just building the lines and you then still need to fill those capacities? That would be the first question.

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

Good morning, Andreas. Thank you for this. Part of the volume is sold or projected to be sold. A part of this capacity will cover capacity shortages at the moment, will be filled up then with an exchange of both in finished products. So we stop to buy in products, and we put the products on our own lines. So this capacity is to a good degree used. That's different from line to line, can be 50, 60%, or can be even slightly more. Is this answering your question?

Andreas von Arx
Stock Analyst, Baader

Yeah. Super. When I look at your CapEx level, I mean, plus, minus, I would say you're around 4% CapEx at the moment, which is still significantly shy on what, you know, some competitors were planning for the medium term that's tried to IPO this summer. I mean, they have CapEx plans that are, you know, double of that number. I mean, could you maybe elaborate what you think is a reasonable CapEx level for the medium term?

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

Andreas, Martin speaking. Thank you for the question. I think you can use our guidance of 3.5%-4%. We have some variation, fluctuation when you look at the figures, but when we look at 2022, calendar year 2022, calendar year 2023, and what we're projecting to have this year, on average, we are within this 3.5%-4% range. Also, in our strategic project plan that we are running every year and updating for a time horizon of three years, we use this guidance to do the capital rationing process. So the 3.5%-4% is what we are using as a guiding yardstick for our business.

Andreas von Arx
Stock Analyst, Baader

So I would not have to expect that the new CEO coming in with new targets next year for the medium term would announce a significant step up in the CapEx?

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

No, that is not something you should expect.

Andreas von Arx
Stock Analyst, Baader

Mm. Then the other side of the same theme, if we look at ROICs, I mean, your ROICs now are above some other peers, or as you say, at the upper end of the range. Do you think this is a level that should be sustainable long term, or if you would go into investment phase, could it drop below? Or maybe ask differently, I mean, when you invest in new lines, what is your target ROIC?

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

I think when you take into consideration our 3.5%-4% CapEx range, I do not expect significant swings in our invested capital base. Therefore, the current level achieved is certainly something we will not progress at the same pace going forward, but I would expect to maintain these kind of levels of return on invested capital going forward, and slightly improve them.

Andreas von Arx
Stock Analyst, Baader

Okay, and then on your new RCF, does that somewhat limit your ability for M&A in the medium term, or would there still be space to look at the potential consolidation in the industry?

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

Andreas, I think what we have always said, let's say our strategy is primarily organic growth, innovation, and innovation. We are focusing on restructuring and simplifying our balance sheet. That's another important step we're doing. If we take the next hybrid buyback into consideration, we have since the old financial year 2022 taken out or addressed more than EUR 880 million of hybrid financing. So this is clearly the area where we see the value creation for the shareholder, and for the time being I would not deviate from that strategy.

Andreas von Arx
Stock Analyst, Baader

Super. And last question on the taxes. I mean, you still have a tax rate of, let's say, around 15%, at the moment. I mean, is that sustainable, or when could we expect to see an increase?

Midterm, I'm talking midterm.

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

Yes, certainly. Tax, as you rightfully point out, is currently still a bit, a volatile element. If you look at the effective tax rate, that's given the fact that we still have losses to which we use to compensate profits. In our return on invested capital calculation, we have assumed a medium-term ETR of 25%, based on the jurisdictions we are in, based on the consideration of the business evolution, based on the losses we expect to use. This is the rate that we are targeting towards over the midterm.

Andreas von Arx
Stock Analyst, Baader

So how would that trend then look like? I mean, now, going from the 15 to 25, let's say a couple of years, still around 15, and then in 5 years' time, the increase, or could that come faster? Just some indication. Thank you.

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

I think I would take that for the, for the time being as a, as a glide path, towards the 25%. There will be some ups and downs, going forward. Until we reach it, I would not yet, give you a clear statement of in which year and, how it's progressing.

Andreas von Arx
Stock Analyst, Baader

That's great. Thank you very much, and I give it back to you.

Operator

Thank you. We will take the next question from line, Jon Cox from Kepler Cheuvreux. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

Jon Cox
Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah, thanks. Thanks very much, Jon with Kepler. A couple of questions for you. Just back on the pricing, you, you mentioned there's no deflation, but-

... The pricing has gone negative in Q2. Do you expect that sort of, that level of negative pricing to continue into the second half of the year? Or the way you're talking is that actually things are going up, and actually that pricing will go positive in the second half of the year.

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

Hi, Jon, Martin. As we called out during the presentation, we don't expect a deflationary trend to emerge from that. I don't have to mention the cocoa price, butter was mentioned, labor as well. So there is. If we look at the overall input basket, we can actually see that we are slightly higher than what we were when we announced the H or the full year results 2023. So clearly, input cost pressure is continuing and we see it as a flattish evolution towards the full year. So no concerns in terms of further increasing pricing reduction in the second half.

Jon Cox
Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. And then, you know, you're talking about this sort of step up in organic sales growth. And as my colleagues mentioned, it is, you know, it looks like a fair jump. I'm just wondering, can you give us any idea on current trading? Like, you've obviously seen July, you saw the summer; it's a summer month, so the weather improved. That helped, I'm sure. You know, are you actually now trending already towards mid-single digit organic sales growth?

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

Look, as we called out, H1 was impacted by the geopolitical events, the portfolio management, which we also said that these effects of portfolio management are largely eliminated in the second half. We see some trends in the recovery of QSR, particularly in the rest of world area. As always is called out, we have good growth projects with existing customers, so based on this, we have reiterated our guidance.

Jon Cox
Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay, and then just on the new midterm plan and, you know, when this will be announced, you mentioned saying mid-next year. What does that mean for 2025? Because you've obviously pretty much made all of the targets for 2025 already. You know, how should we think about 2025 and going into it? Or will you just give us some sort of ad hoc interim guidance, maybe with the full year results or with Q3?

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

I think you can certainly expect guidance for 2025 when we announce our full year results for 2024. So, you will certainly receive that, and we expect to communicate that. And then, we complement that with the new midterm plan towards the end of H1 next year.

Jon Cox
Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay, and the midterm plan would be like 26-29 or 26-30, or something like that?

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

25, 26, 27.

Jon Cox
Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

25, 26, 27. Okay.

All right. And then just the last one, supply chain financing. Can you give us an indication of what happened in H1 there? Because obviously, the working capital is, you know, got better in terms of days, et cetera. I guess you've used EUR 10 million or EUR 20 million supply chain financing, additional in H1.

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

This is mainly driven by improved working capital performance. Our supply chain financing facility is remaining relatively stable, and therefore, let's say the main performance improvement is coming from working capital. We have also, in some businesses, have moved to more frequent invoicing. That has also helped to improve our working capital.

Jon Cox
Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay, so the trade payables, supply chain financing at the end of December, EUR 55 million, that's pretty much what, where we still stand at H1, more or less.

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

So, the improvements are coming from the areas I mentioned before.

Jon Cox
Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. We will take the next question from line, Arben Hasanaj from Vontobel. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

Arben Hasanaj
Equity Analyst, Vontobel

Thank you, and good morning, gentlemen. Just a short question. I was wondering if you could comment on the trends you've seen so far in the third quarter. So do you see there already a, let's say, underlying improvement, or should we expect something more gradual, and then especially an uptick in the fourth quarter, if you could comment on that? And especially also on the QSR channel. So if you've seen there any major improvement already. Thank you.

Martin Huber
CFO, ARYZTA

Thank you, Arben, for the question. I think I mean, I can answer in the same vein I answered to Jon Cox. I mean, we have had an H1 with the elements that are impacting the geopolitical events on, particularly in our Asian business in QSR, the portfolio management, which, as we also called out, is largely consumed in H1, and the effects will be minimal in H2. We have seen some first recovery in the QSR channel in Asia Pacific, where I said we turned to mid-single digit organic growth in the second quarter with positive volume evolution. We expect this to continue. We also said that the QSR recovery with this is not finalized, so this is something that will continue.

We have good growth projects with our existing retail customers, which we expect to capitalize on, and food service, as I called out, has shown its resilience and has delivered positive organic growth in H1, and we expect this to continue. I think these are the elements that are supporting our guidance for the full year.

Arben Hasanaj
Equity Analyst, Vontobel

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. There's no more question in the queue. Now I'll hand it back over to closing remarks.

Urs Jordi
Chairman and CEO, ARYZTA

Thank you very much for joining this call. Thank you very much for questions. I wish you a good day, and see you soon here in Zurich or at the Q3 trading update. Thank you. Have a good day. Goodbye.

Operator

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.

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