Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to this ARYZTA update call. The call will have opening remarks by ARYZTA management and followed by Q&A. This call is being recorded. Now, I'd like to hand over to Paul Meade, Head of Investor Relations, to open the call. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Laura. Good morning, all, and welcome to today's update. I'm joined today by our Chairman and Interim CEO, Urs Jordi, and our CFO, Martin Huber. I would just like to remind everyone that the normal forward-looking statement of risks and uncertainties applies to all of today's discussions. I would now hand over to Urs.
Thank you, Paul. Good morning to everybody for joining this call. You did receive our ad hoc statement today morning. I think the message is understood, and I think we go directly into Q&A, Paul.
That's fine. Laura, can you ask folks if they have any questions on the ad hoc, on the announcement, please?
Sure will. Sure will, Paul. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, your question and answer session will now begin. If you wish to ask a question from the conference call, please press star one on your phone. If you change your mind and decide to withdraw your question, simply press star two. You will be advised when your line is open to ask a question. We'll pause for just a moment while waiting for them to queue for questions. Thank you. The first question comes from Joern Iffert of UBS. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody. Just a double-check. Can you hear me?
Yes. Good morning, Joern.
Good morning, Jon. Okay. Thank you. Just a couple of questions from my side. The first one would be, please. I would take them one by one if it's okay. There's a quite significant deviation in the second half EBITDA year-by-year versus your guidance of around, what is it, 10%± at least. Where exactly is this deviation coming from? This would be my first question, please.
Martin.
Okay. So you want to take the question one by one? Fine.
Yeah. It's okay. Yeah.
Okay. Look, I think, first of all, we are in a challenging environment, and the pace of implementation of the necessary cost implementation measures was slower than expected, and we're now going to focus in Q4 to address that and into 2026 in order to bring them back on track and to bring the flight level of our EBITDA margin towards the flight level that we need for the midterm plan. We want, with that updated guidance on the EBITDA margin on the EBITDA, clearly reassure that we are doing that based on a strong position. We are now accelerating these action plans. What we have announced, this is an unplanned event, and we are now going to address that with accelerated pace, quarter four and onwards.
Caller. Joern.
Joern, the statement in the ad hoc is talking about an EBITDA at least EUR 300 million, and as Martin has told, there are cost activities and improvement activities we accelerate now. We need to be faster in this. There is a bit of consumer hesitance, as we know from everywhere else. Salaries, labor costs are going up, so businesses are asked then to work against this. It's all a question of speed raced against time, and we will accelerate and increase our speed to improve the business. This is basically the answer on this.
But if I may follow up here, because I think it's quite important details which I still lack to understand. I mean, it's EUR 20 million deviation. I mean, can you split this a bit? Is this EUR 10 million rate inflation you have not seen? Is it EUR 5 million technical pricing you have not seen? So EUR 20 million is quite significant deviation within six months. And I mean, if you can have maybe a kind of bridge so that you can better understand this, that would be definitely helpful.
Look, Joern, I think I try to answer this in the following way. We have reiterated our top line organic growth guidance. There is a bit of background noise.
Can we go on mute? It's difficult to hear then.
Okay. So I'll restate that. So we have reiterated our top line organic growth guidance in the range of low- to mid-single-digit. Pricing and volume are supporting this guidance. And we will give further update overall on this on our trading update on October the 20th. Firstly, as Urs said, we are targeting at least EUR 300 million on a like-for-like basis, and we are going to improve and accelerate these cost measures, which were slower than what was expected. And that's what I would like to. Oh, that's how I would like to answer that question.
Can I ask, are the new lines which are coming on stream, are they currently loss-making due to ramp-up costs?
Sorry, I didn't understand the question, Joern. Did you ask about the new lines, the new?
Yes. It's the new lines in Switzerland, Germany, which is running up in production right now. Is this loss-making initially?
No. No, no. It's ramping up more or less the way we did for Cindy's. You remember that we have always told that to the maximum usage, we will need something between 18 and 24 months. This is on track. We have good products in the market in the meantime in Switzerland from this line. The same for some bread products in Germany. This is on track. You know that we have a third big project ongoing, which is progressing more or less like planned, which is this burger bun bakery in Perth. This bakery will go online in the first quarter 2026, and this is as well as planned. It's really the way Martin described. We are in a new world as everybody else. This new reality is asking for activities, cost activities, and these activities we have to accelerate.
We need to be there faster, more aggressive, and this is what we are doing now in Q4. We increase the pace and the speed towards these actions. This is basically the deviation, the way you call.
Okay. Thanks. And then the last quick two questions. Number one, can you comment on the free cash flow for this year? Can it still be around EUR 100 million with unwinding net working capital? And the second question would be, Urs, are you doing this now for longer? What is your plan? Thank you.
Urs is going to answer the second question, certainly. On the cash flow, yes, we are expecting to achieve around EUR 100 million. And as we said, it's at least EUR 300 million on a like-for-like basis, and we are accelerating the cost measures and improvement measures also supported by top line improvement, and that should help us to deliver around EUR 100 million for the year.
Thank you. Martin and Joern, the second question, we have now the 8th of October. There are some days to go until the 20th, some weeks to go to year-end. There are challenges outstanding there, and this is the focus we have now. This question we did not answer. The board took the decision to reinstall the old constellation, and now we are focusing on results and bringing the company to the place we would like to have the company. This is the plan now, and everything else is then up for discussion somewhere.
Thank you for this.
Did we answer this, Joern?
Yes. All good. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you.
Your next question is from Jon Cox of Kepler. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, guys. It's just a follow-up on that question. Does that mean that you'll be Interim CEO for the foreseeable future in the same way when you sort of guided the company through the first stage of the restructuring and turnaround before Michael was appointed? We should expect a similar duration. Second question sort of linked to that is Michael has only been there eight, nine months. I guess you guys were overseeing him on a day-to-day basis because I know you obviously have board meetings frequently, keeping an eye on business. I'm wondering why he is the one that had to fall on his sword if you felt that the cost-cutting operations are running slower than expected, this sort of roughly EUR 50 million that you're expecting. Because I'm sure you knew on a week-by-week basis what was actually happening.
I'm wondering if there's any other issues involved, maybe just personality-wise. It didn't quite work out. He wasn't the guy you thought he was originally. And then the last question, just maybe following up from Joern's a little bit on the EBITDA, the street is expecting you guys to be close to 15% margin next year already. With your reset, it's going to be probably close to 13% this year. Now, when you see these resets, even though you've got these cost savings coming through, it can take years to come back. It's very difficult for food companies just to turn on the tap and improve the margin, particularly in an environment we see now where pricing is clearly under a bit of pressure, and maybe it's a much more competitive market than it was during that inflationary spiral when everybody was quite rational.
Maybe people are being quite aggressive with tendering, etc. So really, we should be thinking, I guess, that you have this goal of a 15% margin, I think, towards the end of this next medium-term plan. Should we all just chisel away our margin assumptions for the next years just to be prudent, or are you saying that next year you can actually bounce back and get 150 basis points margin recovery in one year to get back to where the market was expecting you to be? So there's three questions there. Urs, yourself. Second, Schai, why did he get the boot? And thirdly, just on the EBIT margin question, should we expect it to be pressured for a couple of years to get to 15% at the end of this 2028 period? Thank you.
Thank you, Jon. Three questions. Let me try with the last one. You can expect that the company is reacting on this. We have a good management team, an excellent board with specialists. The board reacted fast on this deviation and decisive. So you can expect that the mid-term plan is the mid-term plan, and there is a way back to this path, but the management and the entire organization will find its way back there. You're right. The environment, the change, which is good and bad. The environment changed for everybody, and we believe that the survival of the fittest will start to work. We are in a not yet consolidated industry. This will accelerate this plan, and we will be a good participant in this plan. So we will get back. The mid-term plan stays as it is. This is the work we have to do now.
Now, there is always a journey on board and a new CEO to go. In the meantime, a lot of things happened around us, as you described. I believe the board had time to follow the performance and the activities. The board took the decision after nine months, so we have been close. The board has been close, and that's why a decision was then taken after nine months and not after two years or even a longer period of time. Now, the first question, the duration, I would answer this in the same way like I did with Joern. This is not top of my mind now. We are having now a challenge to manage. There is October, soon November, December. Customers are looking for support, projects, innovations, new concepts.
Our customers are challenged as well, so we need to be the best partner in this, supporting them to address all these new realities. And this is the focus now for our work. So we invest brain and power in our business, and the rest then when the rest is up for decision, not now.
I want to just follow up. You mentioned about participating in the industry consolidation. Now, clearly, that's something maybe the market would have welcomed from a position of strength. Everything was going tickety-boo. But now you seem to be saying, even after what's happened today with this warning on the EBITDA and the CEO changing, that you still want to participate in this consolidation of the industry. And maybe as an ad d, the market is still waiting for you to announce you're going to start paying a dividend. I know you've sort of kicked the can down the street and said you're going to make a decision maybe with the full year results. You're saying you'll be able to do the EUR 100 million free cash flow today. What's holding you back on paying a dividend?
Is it really because you see a big deal coming which you want to be part of?
There is a hot and a cold consolidation. Every day, protagonists are leaving the market, bakeries with 800, 1,000, 2,000 employees, so this cold consolidation is working. As I told before, we are investing in lines. We took these lines online. We are following our customers, so this is the way, besides the organic growth and the baseline business improvement, to improve our business, and on the question you raised at the end, the acquisition, there is no statement we do. We focus on organic growth. As we have told, we are observing and following everything which goes on the market, but at the moment, the organic growth and the fitness of our business is clearly in the core.
Maybe commenting on what Urs has said on the topic of the capital or the return of capital to shareholders, I think what we can only reiterate and reconfirm what we always have said. The sequence is the hybrid will be paid back. Once the hybrid is paid back, then the next step will come. And what we have said, we have this around 30% equity ratio. So I think we can stay with that sequence, hybrid buyback when we will be envisaging this around 30%, and then the subsequent steps.
Jon, we took over the last years always a prudent approach, hardworking, being prudent, and we will follow this path. So the statements we did about the midterm plan and this Capital Markets Day are still in place. Times most probably are telling us as well to remain careful with all we do. We are betting on the right horse. And maybe you can't hear it anymore. Carbohydrates are the best calories in our days. This is a very efficient calorie. It's an environmentally friendly calorie. It's a liked calorie. I don't know anybody who does not like bread. And this we will leverage on a day-by-day business. And if the board, we believe, time is up for an incremental activity, we will test this prudently, and then we would let the market know.
But at the moment, clearly, the focus is on the day-to-day business, on to be the good servant for our customers.
Okay. Maybe just a final one. Yeah. Sorry. Go on.
Thanks.
Yeah. Maybe just a final one on the, say, day-to-day business. Is it becoming much more competitive, that tendering process at the moment, would you say, over the last since the pricing has been under pressure, that the tendering is much more aggressive? And maybe this is the issue underlying everything that's happening in the industry.
I did have many discussions with our good colleague, Heiner Kamps. Heiner Kamps is even some years longer in the business than I am. What we are seeing now is normal appearance in our business. Input costs are fluctuating. Consumers are one day a bit more in spending mood, the other day a bit less in spending mood. The reaction of the company on this is then the key question, and that's why we told we will accelerate these cost measures and getting there to a healthy base, but basically, what we see now is nothing new. We will address this, and the bakery category will be one of the winners in this. Price pressure was always an appearance in our business. We are not a brand company. We are a private label company. This is a product we are producing which is compared in pricing from customers and consumers.
This was always the case in retail, in food service, in quick-serve restaurants. So this is nothing new. The good thing in this is, and let me repeat this, there are homeworks to do for everybody in the industry, for everybody in the customer landscape. We are doing our homework now, and we are doing this homework a bit faster. And this will be a good, how shall I say, phase for us to get to the next level. It will take time. The road can be a bit more bumpy. This is the actuality now, but this will be a safe and a good journey for ARYZTA.
I appreciate it. And good luck. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question from the conference call, please press star one on your phone. We'll pause for a further moment. Thank you. And we'll now take our next question from Emanuel Spee of Wildhorn Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello, Mr. Jordi. Thank you very much for setting up this call. I'm not so surprised about this news. This, unfortunately, can happen, and I, of course, we all are very happy how you have led the company before, but my question goes more to the governance. How do you see that in best practice it's recommended to have a cooling-off period for the former CEO? How do you see that?
Okay. Thank you for this question and good morning. We have a very active board in place. We have committees in place. We have a very experienced lead independent director in place, which is invested as well in the company, so believe me, the oversight and the governance of the board is well, well given. This is, I think, an enormous progress this company did over the last five years. It's a good mix between the focus excellences we have in the board. It's a well-experienced board, and the committees and the checks and balances are in place. Of course, there are maybe better things than dual roles, but at the end of the day, we are talking about a listed company which has to perform. This is the key question of everything.
So all the aim of governance, of organization, of committee is to secure a strong performance for all of our shareholders. And the board decided, and I fully support this decision, that this constellation we are in is the best interest, in the best interest for our shareholders to address the challenges we are having now and for the coming challenges from the future. The world is not becoming a less challenging one over the next months and years. I don't believe so. So this is the answer from the board to be or to protect the interests of all shareholders.
Thank you very much. May I just continue with my questions? I mean, I'm very happy with the board and that you take the role as CEO again. And I'm looking forward to the opening of the market to hopefully buy even more shares. But in the second step, once you will find a new CEO again, how do you see it with a kind of cooling-off period that before the former CEO, let's say you, takes again on the role as Chairman? Is that something you may consider to have a cooling-off period before taking again the position of the Chairman?
Let me be honest with you. I'm focusing now on the business today and tomorrow and the month end of October and the discussion we have with our good customers and the business trips we are doing. And the entire rest will have a time in a board for discussion. But at the moment, we are in a business mode, in a fighting mode. There is a picture we use. We change from a cruise ship to a warship. And this is in the core of the thinking and of the activity. This is the only answer I can give to this.
Thank you very much.
There are no more questions in the queue. Now, I will hand back over to Urs closing the conference call. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for having me back. There are better days like this in a company, no doubt. But I strongly believe, and we strongly believe, that this was a necessary change. And I very appreciate that the board was able and willing to react fast and decisive for the good of the company and, again, for the interest of all shareholders. See you or hear you soon in whatever occasion. We will have Q3 result announcement October 20th. And this is then most probably the next moment we talk or we interact with each other. I wish you a good day. Take care wherever you are. And hear you soon.
Thank you.
Goodbye.
Goodbye.
This concludes today's call.
Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.