Good morning. Welcome to this capital markets day 2025 of Avolta. Thank you for joining us here physically in the beautiful city of Barcelona or online. I'm Xavier Rossinyol, I'm the CEO of Avolta, and I'm joined today here with our Senior Management, our Chairman, and some distinguished Board Members. Always happens. Now, why are we here today? We are at the midpoint of the strategic plan Destination 2027 that we presented to the equity markets in September 2022. We think it's a good moment to look at what has happened in the last two, three years and what we think is going to happen in the next two, three years. Our strategy, Destination 2027, was based on four clear pillars.
Number one, travel experience revolution, based on the combination of retail and food and beverage, transforming both the physical spaces, shops and restaurants, and transforming the digital and data. The second pillar, geographical diversification. We are convinced, more than ever, especially on the current geopolitics, that a high level of geographical diversification is key for the resilience of the group. The third pillar, an uncompromised commitment to operational improvement, commitment to cost discipline. It is about growth, but it is also about profitability. Doing all that with a clear commitment to sustainability and our people. Why we choose to do that? We choose to do that because the first pillar drives growth, the second pillar drives diversification and resilience and risk management, the third pillar drives profitability, and altogether drives higher equity free cash flow generation.
What has happened over the last two and a half years since we started this journey? We have delivered on all those pillars. Exactly as planned? No. A few things have gone faster than anticipated, others slower than anticipated, but the general trends on all the key pillars have gone in the right and expected direction. We have merged F&B and retail. We have created combined concepts between the two. We have advanced significantly on the data and digital transformation. We have launched September last year our global loyalty program, Club Avolta. We have also delivered on the geographical diversification, growing on new concessions and new countries in every one of the four regions. We have focused on the synergies delivery, on the zero-based budgeting, which has supported the expansion of the margins. We have done all that focusing on sustainability and empowering our people.
That has delivered tangible financial results. After the merger between Autogrill and Dufry, we were an CHF 11 billion company in 2022, and we finished last year with CHF 13.5 billion of turnover, an average growth of 10.5% per year. We are going to be giving a little bit more details today than in the past few presentations. For example, here you have the actual like-for-like growth split between what comes from passengers and what comes from spend per passenger. As you can see, it is very much aligned with the 2/3 on passengers, 1/3 on spend per passenger. At the same time, we achieved the synergies we expected on the merger, CHF 85 million cost savings, and we did that a year in advance.
These synergies, plus the new discipline on cost that Yves is going to explain later on, have helped us to drive EBITDA margin from 8.8%- 9% and 9.4%. Also, equity free cash flow that was CHF 300 million in 2022 was CHF 425 million last year. All key metrics have been delivered in line or ahead of the outlook we had in 2022. Equally important, we have done that while strengthening the balance sheet. Our net debt to EBITDA in 2022 was 4.8x , and last year was 2.1. If you eliminate the effect of the share buyback we did in 2024, it would actually have been 1.9x . There is also an increased focus on this company on the metrics by share.
If you look, for example, at the dividend per share, which was zero in 2022, it was reintroduced in 2023 at CHF 0.7 per share, and it was increased again last year by 43% to CHF 1 per share. We typically do not look at this figure I am going to say now, but it is pretty interesting. During the last three years, we have generated CHF 2.5 billion of combined operational cash flow before CapEx. That is what the company has generated. We have taken CHF 1 billion and reinvested into the business. We have used CHF 400 million to decrease the debt, both in line with expectations, but we also have distributed CHF 500 million between dividend and share buybacks to stray cash to shareholders, clearly ahead of what was expected.
It is not only that we have strengthened our profitability and our balance sheet and our shareholders' focus, we have also created over the last three years a unique global leader and a unique global platform and data access. We are the largest company in the industry, but we are also the biggest on geographical exposure in 70 countries, 5,000 points of sales in 1,000 locations. We also have a pretty unique balance of business. A third of our sales is in duty free, a third is in duty paid, and a third is in F&B. We remain mostly an airport operator with 81% of our sales at airports, but we also have some interesting complementary channels in motorways, railways, and ports. It is not only the global reach on the physical platform, it is also the global reach on data access.
Last year, 2024, there was globally 9.5 billion people traveling by air, and Avolta had exposure to almost 2.5 billion, a little bit more than a quarter. That's 2.5 billion people that go through our locations. Independently if they are customers or not, we have some type of access to information from them. We had 670 million of tickets. That's actual customers we served last year. Of those, 11 million are members of our Club Avolta. I'll come to that because it's a very important and I think underestimated strength of this company, that is the access to a unique pool of travel data. Also, the new company is much more diversified than ever before. We had 900 contracts, now we have 2,100, which gives a much stronger focus on return on any renewal. At the same time, we are much more resilient.
We tend to forget, but the last three years, from a macro point of view, have been pretty challenging. Despite that, despite the Ukraine war, which affected significantly one of the higher spenders in duty free, which are the Russians, or the lower expenditure in duty free from the Chinese, or the Middle East crisis, also very high spenders, or the U.S.'s lowdown, despite all those effects, we have been delivering as a group this 5%-7%. That's thanks to this more resilient portfolio we have today. Both the last two, three years and the next few years are based on these growth contributors. Number one, a growing number of passengers. Number two, a growing number of spend per passenger. Number three, new space that could come from different sources. That is what is going to drive the turnover growth.
With that turnover growth and the disciplining cost, Yves is going to explain later, we are going to keep expanding margin and cash flow generation. These growth contributors will not happen by chance. We will operate, as we are doing, with a very strong growth engine. A growth engine that includes all the key aspects of shops and restaurants and digital transformation. This is done in a systematic way, as I'm going to explain later on, to keep delivering the growth contributors I just mentioned. That is why today, again, for 2025 and for the incoming years, we do confirm our existing outlook. This company should be growing 5%-7% the turnover, while expanding the margin, the EBITDA margin, by 20-40 basis points per year, and further increase the equity free cash flow by 100-150 basis points.
This last one is particularly ambitious because we are already, if you look at the conversions we had last year, we are already ahead of what was expected for 2027. This growth on sales is going to come 2/3 from passengers, 1/3 from spend per passenger, and then we think new spaces should contribute between 0% and 1% additional sales. Clear commitment on what we are going to try to do with the financials, but doing that, keeping the same capital allocation policy. We say in this capital markets day , surprisingly predictable, predictably surprising. Surprising predictable is because we want to be a very predictable company on the financial performance and on the return to shareholders. Here is what we've been doing the last three years, and that's what we are going to do over the next few years.
Number one, invest in the growth of the company. Store network upgrade, digital and technology transformation, new space through business development, and selective M&A if they are accretive and they add value to the company. Second, strong credit rating and continuous deleveraging. Our leverage target is 1.5-2x net debt to EBITDA, could go exceptionally to 2.5 if we deploy that liquidity on something clearly accretive. Third, clear focus not only on general shareholders' return, but on specific cash return to shareholders. Pay a progressive dividend of 1/3 of the equity free cash flow. As I just said, sales growth, margin growth, equity free cash flow growth, so this dividend will be progressively increasing year-on-year.
When the liquidity of the year allows, medium-term share buybacks like the one we announced and completed last year and the one we announced for this year, each of them on a size of CHF 200 million. What I'm going to do now is first to explain the Avolta growth contributors, why we believe Avolta is and will continue being surprisingly predictable. Surprises on birthdays. Then I'm going to cover the Avolta growth engine. We call it predictably surprising because we want the passengers, the landlords, the airports, and our brands to know that we will surprise them. Let me start with the growth contributors. First message, and I have only one slide on that because I think everybody knows. We are in a growing industry.
Our industry, it has a size of $115 billion, of which 44% is duty-free, 30% is F&B, 26% is duty-paid. It's expected that we'll continue to grow at a ratio of 5%x5.5% per annum. That means that in 2030, we could reach a size of $175 billion. This includes not only airports, but also the other channels of travel like cruise lines, motorways, trains. From a competitive point of view, this is still a fragmented market. We are the clear leaders, not only on a global scale, but also in each of the key segments. Our competitors are a combination. You have some of them that are global players like ourselves, some of them are regional, some of them are local. Some of them only operate in one segment, others operate on the three or two segments like retail and F&B.
Different companies have different strategies on which channels they are. For me, the key message here is that our size and our diversification makes us more resilient. If you look at the effects I explained a few minutes ago that have occurred over the last three years, you can see that the effect on us has been limited. You know I don't need to mention that some of the companies in this graphic have been massively affected for those same effects. Why? Because they were concentrated either on a geographical area or on a type of passenger. Leading an industry which is still fragmented. We believe Avolta is unique on our size and our data access. We have a very clear focus on the different growth contributors. We have an engine with Swiss engineering on focusing on the growth engine.
We always do all that to deliver growth in sales, margins, and return on shareholders. I am going to explore now each of the growth contributors in detail, starting for one that is well-known, but I think still sometimes we forget the potential of the passenger growth. There are a few statements here which I find interesting. 80% of the world population has never taken a flight. Never. Imagine the massive untapped market. One thing we have seen decade after decade is that when people reach a certain level of low-middle class, traveling is one of the things they want to do. There is a massive airport boom coming. There are 1,500 airports planned for the next 20 years. There have been 40,000 new aircraft being ordered. Yes, it could be some hiccups here and there.
One year, there is less availability of aircraft, etc., but the trend over the next 20 years remains very interesting. Another statistic which I also find interesting is that if you look at the price of the flights between the 1990s and now, they have dropped by 50%. Yes, it is true the last two or three years they have potentially increased, but overall, if you look at 20 or 30 years, the affordability of flying is also increasing. That is why we had a 4.3% CAGR number of passengers over the last 15 years, going from 5 billion to almost 10 billion. It is very interesting. We just put it because it is funny. In 1979, there were only 200 million people flying. It looks even impossible. When I was given that, I said, "Are you sure? It cannot be so." It is.
Even if the expected growth is a little bit lower, 3.3 per annum, also to be clear, the projections are always a little bit lower, but even with 3.3, in 20 years, we double again the number of passengers, going from 10 billion to almost 20 billion. The basis of our business is very solid. Now, what are we going to do with those increasing number of passengers? We believe that everything starts on understanding the traveler. Everything starts on data. We have at least the possibility to access more data than anybody in the industry. Are we doing everything we should be doing? No. We are still in a very early stage of taking advantage of the data. Even in this early stage, we are in a much better place today than three years ago. We have access to data on behavior analysis.
In some of our segments, we can ask for the boarding pass. We know nationalities. We definitely know when people travel and when they buy during the day, in which channels they buy. We can establish patterns on a local, regional, and global basis more than anybody else because we are in more places than anybody else. Of course, we can do demographic analysis, and this is very interesting. Generation Z and Y are going to be, or they are already, close to 60% or a little bit ahead of 60%. And these people, like we, but they do behave and they consume in a different way. We can analyze archetypes. We know leisure, business, solo, family, domestic, international. That we do not give the data to equity markets for our competitors to see does not mean we do not have it. But that is if you want basic data.
With that basic data, we can go much further. This is actual data that we generate from the analysis of our customers and our non-customers. The reasons why people buy at the travel destination. It's different if it's retail or F&B. The main target of retail is gifting or buying for somebody else. If you put these two categories together, it's more than close to 50% for why people buy at an airport. For F&B, it's convenience, accessibility. People do F&B after the security check. In motorways, they could be, for example, focusing on cleanliness or availability of product. The three key messages here are gifting and shopping for others has become the number one reason why people buy. For us, it has been decreasing on about 1% per year as importance, and it's not anymore the number one reason why people buy at airports.
Convenience and self-indulgence is also the third main reason why people buy in our universe. We can go to much more sophisticated analysis. We can analyze passengers by personas, also by the way they behave in and out of the travel. You can classify young travelers, family holidays, people that are bored and restless, etc. All these are just a few examples on how we use this data we have to prepare ourselves on delivering higher spend per passenger. We take this data. We take our capacity to understand passengers in duty-free, duty-paid, and F&B, and we deploy these pillars of our engine, which I'm going to cover in the next section. Some of you are going to enjoy, particularly the next slide. We are always a little bit reluctant to give too much detail of spend per passenger because of competitive reasons. We have more data.
We have better data than anybody else. Whatever we publish or we communicate, competition is looking. We are doing a little bit more than usual. Like-for-like, 2023, 2025, passenger growth has been 4%-5%. Spend per passenger has disclosed 2%-3%. That is how we have achieved our average like-for-like growth of 8%. My famous 2/3 passengers, 1/3 spend per passenger. If you take some specific effects during these three years, and this is an actual calculation, the Chinese, the Russian expenditure, how they have decreased both in percentage of total passengers for us and also their expenditure, the Argentinian effect last year. You also analyze the geographical mix because the spend per passenger is different from different locations. If you have a location with a lower spend per passenger growing faster, then the weighted average is affected, even if the individual spend per passengers are better.
We have different spend per passenger in F&B, in retail, and in different categories. I'll come to that in a second. We have estimated that all these effects together have produced a negative effect between 2%-3% on the spend per passenger per year over the last year. If you want to calculate the unaffected spend per passenger, it will be 4%-6%. We still keep our outlook of 1/3 because we believe the world is too complex not to anticipate that you will always have some mixed effects. This is to show that the travel experience revolution is actually yielding very good results.
If you look at some competitors that are saying their spend per passenger is decreasing, if you consider that, we can say, I think very clearly, and that is why we keep pushing that the strategy is working. The spend per passenger per region and per category, the arrows, I think it is explained at the bottom. If they go up or like that, it is that they are growing more or less than 5%, the same thing on the other way around. The spend per passenger increased 16% in 2022, 5% in 2023, 3% in 2024, 3% again at the beginning of this year. It has grown in all the regions except Asia-Pacific, and the reason is the Chinese traveler. Very consistent.
Going back to my earlier comment, if you have a company based on that type of passenger, of course, your spend per passenger globally decreases. Then by category. I'm not going to go one by one. It will take too long. You also can see very clearly some of the well-known trends. I mean, watches and jewelry, which is a small category for us, but it's the more luxury-related, it has been decreasing, like we have heard in the industry. The key message is this will keep happening. You will always have a passenger type that changes in nature. You will always have a category that gets better or worse.
As the main reason why people buy is gifting, is convenience, we have the capacity, if we adapt fast to these changes, to keep growing our spend per passenger on a global basis despite some positives and some negatives on the specifics. On top of the passenger growth and the spend per passenger, we have new space. We are also trying here in the next couple of slides to explain a little bit better how the new space works. Sometimes only a tiny part of this is well-known in the market because it is the public tenders. That is only one way to get new space. Number one is renewing. There is no better business you can do in business development than renewing the existing contracts. We have renewed 95% of the contracts over the last three years. You have the tenders and the requests for proposals.
That is where typically people focus. We also have direct negotiations. We also have the possibility to do joint ventures with airports and also M&A. In any of these cases, landlords focus on commercial and operational and on financials, but not only on financials. They talk about customer centricity, customer service standards, very important. They themselves are valued by the customer service. They want more and more local sense of place. They want reliability. They want innovation. They want digital. One thing we need to remember is the subtitle, but I think it is very important. This is not a typical rental agreement that somebody leaves you some space and you pay your rent and that is it. We live together. An airport is alive. An airport changes flows, changes type of passengers, has operational changes to be done. Airports get a percentage of our sales.
This is a daily collaboration. This part of having a reliable partner for 10, 20 years is very important. Of course, there is a financial because we are all business people. Airports also want their return. One of the key elements in any financial proposition is what is your sales projection. If you are able to convince the airport, which sometimes we do, sometimes we do not, convince them that because of all what I am explaining, we can deliver higher sales because we have more capacity to increase the spend per passenger, you also increase the capacity to potentially win concessions. How we look at that, first, it is very important, and this is just one example. Different concessions in different segments of business work differently, but also regional, also by country. It is a very interesting universe of possibilities. Just two examples.
Concession fee. Concession fee that, as you know, is an average of 25% for Avolta as a group, is 29% in retail, and it's an average of 17% in F&B. That's existing portfolio. CapEx is the other way around. CapEx on average in retail, you have 3%. In F&B, 5%. Also, the duration of the contract is different. Typically, in retail, because you have a lower CapEx, it's 5-10 years. It could go longer than that. In F&B, it is longer than that, 10-20 years. What I think is very important is how we look at business development and new space. First, we look at the growth potential. The passengers, the spend per passenger. We do that with a risk profile. I've been in this industry in and out for 30 years.
I think I haven't calculated recently, but if we put all the experience of the Senior Management, it's hundreds of years. You cannot fall in the heat of the moment. You have to be very realistic. If you have a domestic airport in the U.S., it's probably very resilient. Will not have crazy growth, but will be very resilient. If you go in an emerging market, you need to know that there will be upsides and downs. We have enough experience to see how reliable are the passenger forecasts, if those markets are affected by a change rate or not, the geopolitical concepts, etc. We have very adjusted projections of sales risk adjusted. We look at the margins before concession fees, which also are different in different regions and in different business segments.
Then, on a combined manner, we see concession fees with potentially MAC, CapEx, and duration. If we elaborate more than until now on how we look at the return on investment. Thanks to our diversified portfolio, we can say no if we need to. We also lose sometimes. We also would like to get places, and somebody does a better offer for a reason. We can be selective. What we are trying to avoid is to get concessions we do not want. You have heard in one way or the other the Avolta management saying that. We wanted to introduce a slightly different approach today. Now we are going to have a video where you will see some of our landlords. No script.
We told them, "Look, are you happy to talk about Avolta, Avolta relationship, and Avolta Destination 2027?" That is what they have said. I will come back in a minute after the video.
[Foreign language]
Avolta is obsessed regarding the passenger experience. There are two pillars that they introduced in Avolta Destination 2027, like sustainability and technological. That brings Avolta very close to us. That permits us to work together, to work jointly, creating moments for the passenger and trying to have the best-in-class experience worldwide.
Avolta is a great partner of Aena. We are developing together with Avolta a new customer centricity strategy. We are analyzing what will be the best offer we can do for our 24 million customers.
We share the same philosophy. We place our passengers at the center of everything we do.
I think there is a perfect alignment with Avolta from this perspective. We dedicate a lot of time and resources to make sure that they can have the best possible customer experience at the airport.
I'm really proud about this partnership. Our partnership with them is a strategic one, to say the least. In terms of technology, we are getting into more touchless payment systems, QR codes, and loyalty mobile apps designed to streamline the shopping process and enhance passenger satisfaction.
My name is Steve Johnson. I'm the President and CEO of Avolta North America. We just picked up quite a bit of business in New York, in the JFK, San Antonio, where we picked up all the food and beverage just recently. Las Vegas, where the airport's expanding their footprint. We just picked up Palm Beach. Opportunities are boundless in front of us.
Avolta, [Foreign language] "Making the journey as important as the destination." [Foreign language].
Today at Avolta, I just do a lot of things together to make sure that it gives an impact on passenger satisfaction. We are doing a lot of indoor things in the tax free shop, like gaming and graving, tasting, and gift wrapping. All of this together is contributing to more satisfied passengers.
[Foreign language].
I'm excited about the future opportunity because both of us as partners are willing to invest to stay current on very fast-changing consumer travel expectations.
One of the things that excites me about Avolta's 2027 strategy is to put a travel revolution.
On the one hand, Avolta has, with Club Avolta, now introduced a loyalty program that really works. It is very clear. It is seamlessly integrated into the transaction process, and people love it.
My name is Freda Cheung. I am the President and CEO of Asia-Pacific at Avolta. I am very proud to be speaking about our exceptional offerings in Bali. It is truly a gem within our APAC region. At Bali's Denpasar International Airport, Avolta is the largest concession operator. We are very excited about what is yet to come in the near future. From a growth trajectory standpoint, the sky is the limit.
I'm Sammy Patel. I'm the Vice President of Commercial for Vantage Group. Vantage Group operates at numerous airports all around the world.
We have a great partnership with Avolta. As I said, we operate across numerous airports with them. Avolta's Destination 2027 initiative is really, really exciting for us, and I really look forward to seeing some of these being implemented in our newest project at JFK Terminal 6, especially around cutting-edge technology and digitalization.
I'm not going to go through the details, but I think just to pick up some words and the strong alignment between the language we use in Destination 2027 and what our landlords are saying. Because when we put together Destination 2027, we did a lot of research and it was based on what passengers want, but also based on what our landlords. They talk about digitalization. They talk about partnership. They talk about the loyalty working. They love it. The customer centricity, the customer service.
There is a strong alignment between our landlords and our strategy. The consequence of these growth contributors, passenger, spend per passenger, and new space, is what has happened over the last years. On the top, you have the reported growth, which is well known. It is all pre-published data. You can see specifically on the like-for-like that is also shown, always ahead of 5%, that 1/3 came from spend per passenger and 2/3 came from passengers. You can see the new space with this 0%-1% a little bit higher at the beginning of this year. This slide tries to show that all what I have been talking until now is actually also being reflected. We do expect, as I said earlier on, with our outlook to continue to happen in the years to come.
We are convinced about that despite all the geopolitical surprises we get on a daily basis because of our growth engine. We have structured the company, our regions, our commercial, our digital areas to deliver surprise. When you research, and I'll come to that in many areas of this, passengers want something different. Airports want something different. Our brands do collaborate more, for example, on the margin if we offer something different. We want to be predictably surprising. The basis is the data I explained earlier on. The basis is to have duty-free, duty-paid, and F&B. We are going to do it through these pillars. I'm going to go now one by one. We go from assortment pricing, flexibility, F&B, and retail, the distinctive look and feel, the entertainment, and the digital platform. This one, it sounds pretty basic.
It's the bread and butter of any retailer and any F&B operator. It's the assortment and the pricing. We have also been transforming the way we decide on assortment. Assortment changes should change on an hourly basis, not on a monthly basis. People do expect what they expect. And as another GEG member says always, if they don't buy today, they're not going to buy tomorrow. That sale is gone. You have the seasonalities. You have the festivities. You have the changing origin and destination of the passengers. In order to boost sales, we use strong digitalization for assortment. We are in a process to have assortment being decided practically on an automatic basis and also shortening the lead times to make sure that those changes can be implemented faster. The same thing on pricing.
Some of you might be surprised, but our pricing policy was based on a cost plus markup for many years. We have progressively introduced an advanced rule-based pricing strategy, also with a new team. We are not yet with the capacity to do a full dynamic pricing. That is to come. Again, it's another thing that could improve our business in the incoming years. At least we monitor around 200 competitors in the travel and in the high street. We monitor daily 150,000 items. We have recurrent research on customers. We analyze constantly our tickets. We have reduced the capacity to change prices to less than a day. I'm almost ashamed to say what it was four years ago, but it was much longer than that. That allows us to adapt assortment and pricing much faster than ever before to the changing needs.
Another key element of this growth engine is the flexibility we introduce on our spaces. There is a picture here. It's an actual picture of our shop in Bangalore. It's just an example. That's the same space. In 24 hours, it can be changed, for example, from a perfumes and cosmetic display to a wine and spirit display. Before Destination 2027, we had an average of 15% of the space that could be understood as flexible or dynamic. Basically, space for activations. In the new generation of stores, we have between 40% and 45% of the space is flexible space. We are working on doing more digital signage, which is also faster to change, more dynamic lighting, more dynamic flooring, ceiling, etc.
We have to stop as an industry, and Avolta is leading this, that one shop or one restaurant is designed thinking that will last for 10 or 20 years. That does not work anymore. It needs to be a flexible space that you can change. Also very important, distinctive look and feel. That comes both from landlords and passengers. You have some statistics here. Passengers do appreciate a sense of place. They do appreciate local flavor, local products, local look and feel. The airports also are clearly pushing for half their own distinctive essence. That is done on specific corners, specific products, specific F&B concepts. Two points. In 80% of our airport locations, we have some type of local product or space. 30% of our sales in retail are coming from local products. Depending on the region, between 30% and 50% of the F&B concepts are local.
Even a higher proportion on the hybrid concepts because the hybrids, local gastronomy, and local gourmet products, it's a perfect match. A favorite one from some people in this room, the possibility to enhance retail thanks to F&B and vice versa. We are convinced because data shows that F&B and retail can support each other. Cross-sales, cross-promotions. Another piece of data. 23% of our sales are generated from places where we have F&B and retail. You do not need to do any physical change. Just cross-promote, cross-sell. You can go to hybrids, which could be a light hybrid. It could be just a place where you have a small corner of F&B to support the retail or vice versa. Or you could go to a hard hybrid where you design from the beginning a space to cope with everything. Another piece of data.
We have today 70 locations with hybrids. Another 50 we are exploring on business development. Another piece of data: hybrid concepts in 2023 were 6% of our business development. In 2024, it was 16%. In 2025, so far, 26%. There is a clear opportunity on the combination of F&B and hybrids on existing, and it is a clear trend on business development. To do that, you have probably two global players and maybe one or two small local players. The rest cannot do that. One of my favorites, and you have some examples here on entertainment and activations. You have one of the flight simulators here, and I hope you can enjoy it later on. You can fly over Barcelona. We have festivities, activations, local holidays, global holidays. We have sports-related activations and entertainment from Formula 1 to football or any sport.
It's a way to attract a younger crowd into the stores. It makes the experience completely different. Particularly important, we measure the effect. This could have been in any of the slides because everything we do today, we measure. This is an actual picture. This is an actual location where you can see on the circle before and after the activation. That area increased 84% the traffic and 74% the daily dwells. Imagine this type of data on a regular basis to identify what does work and what doesn't work. Not only that, imagine how you will interact with a brand if you can provide this type of data for sponsoring or you cannot. Data in itself, properly used, can excite passengers, airports, and brands. Now we are moving from the physical spaces to the digital, but still with the basis on the stores.
That's basically the technology we put inside the shops and the restaurants. That technology has two targets. There is the technology the customer sees. That could be the self-checkout, the QR code ordering. It could be a digital screen like some of the ones you have here where you can play. It could be a machine that gives you a different combination of smells that then you can buy a perfume. Anything that will make the traveler's journey either more exciting, more customer experience, or more convenient. There is also the back-of-the-office technology. If you have camera analytics, you can analyze the heat maps I just said. We are also working with another startup that we are analyzing systematically the productivity of the shelves. Or you can analyze the optimization of the assortment just with a statistical analysis or basket analysis.
You can decide which products could be cross-promoted. On this journey of using in-store technology to make smarter stores, we are, again, a significant jump between now and three years ago. This year, we're going to reach 20% of our sales generated in stores that do our smart stores. From 0%- 20% is a fantastic journey. What I like is that from 20%- 100%, probably we do not need 100%, but from 20%- 50%, there is a lot of road. Very clear focus, very clear engine. I like the word engine. It is really something systematic. It does work, but we are just at the beginning or at the middle of the journey. The next one, it is data in itself.
The 2.5 billion passengers that go through our locations, some of them are customers, some of them are not customers, the 670 million actual tickets we had, and the 11 million of Club Avolta. From all of those, we get some type of data. Of course, we have the customer data, the most basic one, tickets, baskets, nationalities, boarding passes, all that. We have contextual data, which we typically did not analyze in the past. When all that I described is happening, it is in the morning, it is in the afternoon, it is a cloudy day, it is not a cloudy day, it is a day that there are more Chinese flights, it is a holiday season, etc. In-store tech, I just mentioned, flow analysis, basket analysis, etc., shelf analysis.
Of course, on the extreme, there is the loyalty data because those are members that can potentially activate a much wider sharing of data. You can have more and better data than anybody, but you still need very strong data experts to do the data analytics. That is also something that has changed materially over the last three years, and it continues to change. We are also humble. Sometimes, to do it internally, it is not the best way. We Avolta Next. it is an actual platform that we also launched two years ago, and now it is up and running that includes several startups that are working with us. We put problems out there. We have, I do not know, 200-300 startups in a kind of pool.
You throw them a challenge, and if they have something, they can address it, they come to you, and they address it. In exchange, of course, they get good business. That is why, again, beginning of the process, but clear direction. The last pillar of this Avolta growth engine is the loyalty. Loyalty is very clear. It is for frequent flyers. If you do not travel three-plus times a year, you are not interested in a loyalty program. There are many frequent flyers. We estimate that probably it is around 20% of the people flying. It is very important. For those, they have access to a program in 5,000 points of sales, global coverage, which is unique. They can use it in food and retail.
They get rewards that could be savings, but could also be exceptional experiences because some of our suppliers are, if you spend enough money, if you are loyal enough, it's a nicer way to say it, you can enjoy unique experiences from visiting a whiskey distillery or having access to unique personalized products. They also travel better because some of the partners we have do give benefits because we match a status. They can have lounge access. They can have certain additional services provided by the airport. Lifestyle, earn and spend with airlines. Let's remember, everything that is in this page has started in September 2024. It's nine months. And with nine months, we have achieved 11 million members. They spend an average ticket value of three times the non-members. There are a few data points here.
Of course, we have a massive amount of data, but I think it's interesting. 36% of the members who received a geo-push notification, they make a purchase. Just the fact that you can have a geo-notification with somebody, that's a game changer. We have people using our app to gain. 265,000. You could say it's small. Yes, it's small compared to 670 million. Look, for something as new as that, it's not bad. The bottom line of the loyalty is that it allows us to create a level of intimacy and a new level of interaction that is not possible without. We would like to be as large as possible, but it doesn't matter. If it remains 10 million, 20 million, it's still making a very different type of interaction. All this comes together. Clear leadership on the size and the network.
Clear leadership on global data access. Very clear focus on growing in passenger growth plus spend per passenger plus new spaces. Doing that in a systemic, systematic engine growth, addressing all the key elements to make a difference. With that, growing sales, margin, and cash flow. All that is possible only thanks to our people, our 70,000 team members, which every day go to the shops, to the restaurants, to the cafeterias, to the warehouses to prepare the presentations for today that make a difference. We have clear values. Those are internal values. I think it's interesting. It's brave. We are not afraid to challenge. We are not afraid to try an error. Believe me, we do a lot of mistakes, but we try to learn from them. We are passionate. That's the most important for me.
It does not matter what is your position in the company. You have to be passionate about what you do. The ones that are here, you will see how people are passionate preparing a coffee, a croissant, or how they explain some of the innovation you are going to see. We are inclusive, and we are collaborative. For that, I am going to have now another video. You will hear now there were two GEC members, two Senior Management members that already spoke on the previous video. Now you are going to hear the remaining ones. I think it is very enlightening because you typically see if and myself in this interaction. Whatever happens in Avolta is not because of us. It is because this team led by all the people you are going to be seeing now. I will come back in a minute.
My name is Vijay Talwar, and I am the Chief Commercial and Digital Officer at Avolta.
I'm Luis Marin. I'm the CEO for the region, Europe, Middle East, and Africa.
My name is Enrique Urioste, and I'm the President and CEO for Avolta Latin America.
I'm Katrin Volery, and I'm the Chief People and Culture Officer for Avolta.
Destination 2027 is a journey. It is a journey I honestly believe has one goal. It is to take our airports, make them better, and leave them in much better shape by 2027 than they were in 2022.
At Avolta, the culture of innovation that we're seeking for is really to put everyone on the same page that we strive for one team, one Avolta.
We are a company that we are always looking for the next step. We are not just waiting for the innovation to come to us.
We are searching for the innovation.
We have opened in the last month several hybrid solutions. Hybrid solution means food and beverage operation inside of a retail store. Many airports are interested. It is a new way to attract people to our store. It is a new way to ensure people stay in our store.
Club Avolta as a platform, it is truly to connect with over 10 million customers who are actively in airports on a regular basis. They are getting a better experience because of their connectivity to Club Avolta. Digital transformation is truly about a 360-degree connection with the consumer.
For us, innovation started super early, and it is an essential component of distressing the passenger. The innovation does not only need to come from technology and novelties, but also from the people in the field.
Destination 2027 really is about business development, empowering the regions, but it's also driven by our people. For me, I have to adapt the people agenda, the roadmaps to Destination 2027.
For me, Destination 2027 is the milestone of a new culture where people are embracing the empowerment of decision, where people are bringing the entrepreneurial part that each one of us has inside into life.
I personally try to spend as much time as possible with our people to make sure that the people feel comfortable. If you ask me what is my management tool, it's maybe get the people to talk.
Enabling people to become the best version of themselves. That, for me, is the best method to go forward.
People should feel empowered. People need to be curious. People need to be engaged. People need to ask questions.
I think that's the part of the culture that we really need to create, and we have been able to create in Avolta.
I think we can do many things at the same time in many different places, be it in terms of technology, be it in terms of how to operate better the business, be it in terms of sustainability, in terms of ESG. We have plenty of initiatives going around the group. People are the most important asset in our line of business.
Now we can clap for the team of Avolta. Now it comes the last piece of this puzzle. We have our own team and our focus on customer. We have this amazing collaboration with our landlord partners. The third piece, which is fundamental, is the collaboration with our brands, both in retail and F&B.
Instead of showing now hundreds of pages on things we are doing, we have another video. That is the last one, at least the last one with the brand partner endorsement. Again, we just ask to those mostly CEOs, what do they think about the collaboration between themselves and Avolta? Let's play the video, please.
My name is Marc Puch. I'm the Chairman and CEO of Puch. How can we make it more attractive, more experiential, more a theater, more a cathedral in the point of sale at the airport? It's theater at the end. It's experiences in the point of sale that with Avolta we have done very successfully.
My name is Adalbert Lechner, and I'm the Group CEO of Lindt & Sprüngli. An impressive success story when strong innovation meets strong execution with our high-quality products and Avolta's innovative touchpoints.
My name is Mahesh Madhavan, and I'm the CEO for Bacardi Limited. Programs like Club Avolta loyalty programs put consumers first. The level of ambition that they have on the hybridization concept when it comes to food, of how to merge food experience, food and beverage, and retail together. This is what we've been practicing and preaching in Venky for the last 15 years.
The strategic pillars of Destination 2027 align very closely with what we are trying to accomplish at Inspire, particularly growing globally, digital innovation, and format innovation. Avolta has been great in pushing us and innovating in those areas.
My name is Raymond C loosterman. I'm the founder CEO of Rituals Cosmetics. Avolta is a very important partner for us to roll out across the globe and make sure that people discover our beautiful little brands.
If I were to describe the cutting-edge partnership with Avolta in one word, it would be dynamic. Our teams have a shared commitment to redefining the travel retail experience through agility, creativity, and a forward-looking approach that adapts to evolving consumer expectations in a global market.
We are proud of more than three decades of partnership with Avolta, where we've played an important role in revolutionizing the travel retail space, ensuring travelers have access to premium, high-quality brands wherever and whenever they travel.
We started at the beginning of our experience here in Italy two years ago together with the international team of Avolta. I think that immediately we understood that we could have a very good relation and a very good partnership.
My name is Laurent Pillet. I'm the Chief Executive Officer of Pernod Ricard Global Travel Retail.
Today, I'd like to stress the wonderful collaboration partnership that we built over the years with Avolta, which is based on a shared passion to deliver exceptional travelers' experiences.
I'm John O'Keeffe, and I'm the President for Diageo EPAC India and Global Travel. We're very proud of our strategic partnership with Avolta, which I feel has been built on a shared commitment to enhancing consumer experiences and really driving innovation in travel retail.
Our partnership unlocks new ways to engage travelers globally and drive premium growth in travel retail.
Avolta seeks to make travelers happy. Together with Avolta, we really help do that.
Finally, we found a lead partner that wants to take this forward together.
Travel, food, and beverage is important to Chili's because one of our big strategies is reaching more guests wherever they are.
Avolta gives us access to airports and other locations that we otherwise would not be able to reach them in.
Avolta has the capacity to feed millions of people. I want really to be part of that and prove we can feed the people with good food.
Excited and curious about our common future achievements. Here is cheers to all at Avolta. We really look forward to our partnership with you.
Thank you to the Avolta team. We look forward to continuing to grow this partnership.
Together, we are going to create a travel experience revolution.
I think the broader value is that we are able together with Avolta to bring the best of the real, authentic Italian food and beverage.
Make it the journey as delicious as the destination.
Again, thank you to all the people that participated in the video.
But independently of some of the specific examples, the language. We have a common language: innovation, customer centricity, digital, loyalty, transformation, partnership. And we are business people. Partnership means that if we together grow sales, the brands are also willing and able to invest more on the channel and on Avolta. Doing a good job on this video means boosting sales, boosting customer experience, and boosting gross profit margin. With that, we will go now to see how all these bits and pieces match on the financial model. With that, I hand over to our Global CFO, Yves Gester. Thank you. Good luck.
Welcome, everyone, also from my side to Avolta's capital market day 2025 here in Barcelona. It is great to see so many of you here at the venue in Barcelona. A very warm welcome also to everybody who joins today online.
You have heard already a lot about the strategy, which we have announced two and a half years ago at the capital markets day at that time in London, about the growth contributors and also the growth engine, which is very specific for Avolta. I will now explain to you how this all translates into tangible financials, from the turnover to the expansion of the profitability, the increase of cash flow, and ultimately how this will all return in increasing returns to shareholders. Let me start with the turnover, the top line. Over the last two and a half years, we have clearly matched the expectations and also the outlook we have provided, growing in 2023 by 16% and in 2024 by 7.5%. We are confident that we are going to continue that trajectory and grow 5%-7% in the medium term for the horizon of Destination 2027.
The way we approach that is, on one hand side, through the increasing passenger numbers. The industry has seen that over the last decade, and we do expect to see that going forward. That will add 2/3 to that growth. An additional 1/3, and that's very specific for Avolta, will come to the increasing spend per passenger through the growth engine, through all the initiatives we have heard already today, from the flexibility of the stores to the loyalty app, to the digital initiatives, to the entertainment, the sense of place, and all the other initiatives we are implementing and continuously improving. On top of that, we are looking into new space, which on one hand side comes from continued M&A activity, their small, medium-sized bolt-on acquisitions, predominantly debt-financed and cash-financed and accretive to shareholders. On top of that, business development, which will also add to new space.
On the business development, it will be related to requests for proposals, direct negotiations with landlords, but also participating in public tenders. All of that is part of the growth engine for the top line. Looking more detailed into the profitability. In regard to profitability, the outlook we have provided is 20-40 basis points improvement of the EBITDA margin year-on-year in the medium term. Over the last two years, we have clearly also delivered on that, increasing the EBITDA margin by 20 basis points from 8.8% in 2022 to 9% in 2023, and by another 40 basis points at the top end of the guidance we have provided in 2024, reaching 9.4%. We'll continue to improve that. We are giving a guidance or an outlook on the EBITDA margin.
We are typically not speaking about every single line, and there are two reasons, probably some others, but two main reasons why we do so. Number one, and you see that at the bottom side of the slide, is the heterogeneous cost structure of the different channels. If we are, for example, continuing to grow for a couple of years stronger in a specific channel, for example, food and beverage, gross profit margin would tend to increase purely because of the cost structure. On the other hand, also personal expense would increase. Is that good or bad? Nothing. It's neutral. At the end, on the EBITDA margin, it has not significant impact if you grow in one or the other, but on the different cost line items, it does.
Reason number two, and that's much more important, the way we look at business development, the way we look at our portfolio of concessions and contracts is not specifically related to every single line. Obviously, with our continuous improvement, with our cost control measures, we try to improve every single line. That's not the point. The point at the end is that our ambition is to maximize cash flow and to maximize the returns of every single contract from an IRR perspective, from a discounted cash flow perspective, and ultimately for the entire portfolio from a ROIC perspective. That's what we are trying to achieve.
That also means that on that journey, we may come to the conclusion that we do a little bit of additional activation, a little bit of promotion, we invest a little bit more into entertainment or technology, or we invest a little bit more into personnel to drive sales and ultimately cash flow. That is the ultimate target. While we are not giving you guidance or an outlook on every specific line, let me quickly go through the different lines and elaborate in a more qualitative way on how we think about them, starting with the gross profit margin. Again, the different concepts, the different channels show a very different gross profit margin of around 60% in 2023 and food and beverage closer to 70%, convenience somewhere in between.
Now, while in the past or historically, the improvement of the gross profit margin was predominantly the result of, on one hand side, negotiation, sometimes hard negotiation with your suppliers, and on the other hand, the improve or the increase, the strategic increase of the pricing you charge to your customers in the store, the things have shifted quite substantially over the last couple of years and will be even different going forward.
What is now becoming much more relevant in regard to the gross profit margin improvement is the access to data, the management and the analysis of data, and the use of that data to become smarter in regard to the assortment, in regard to the promotional activities you do in collaboration with the brands, and the dedicated pricing we can offer to specific groups and specific products to specific members of the loyalty program Club Avolta, and many, many other initiatives. All those initiatives together are forecast to increase the gross profit margin going forward. On the concession fee is an interesting one because it gets a lot of attention by many different stakeholders. Let me be clear also on that. Two important points here, which are important to remember. Number one, yes, over the last decade or so, concession fee has been increasing. There's no doubt about that.
There were also clear reasons for that. Number one, we have seen a consolidation in the industry. We led that consolidation by doing acquisitions specifically between 2006 and 2015. Some of our competitors chose a different route. They were growing by buying actively market share, by offering relatively high concession fee, and also high minimum annual guarantees. In some cases, the outcome is clear, was very successful. In some others, it ended up not being that successful. Now, we believe that this trend is over. People nowadays are much more disciplined when it comes to tender in regard to the concession fee, concession fee increases, but also when it comes to minimum annual guarantee.
Reason number two for the increase of the historical concession fees is the banking, especially right in the years before COVID, on the Chinese growth of Chinese international passengers because obviously they were high spenders. Now, also that has changed tremendously, and we see now a more flattish evolution of the concession fee over time. Will there still be some pressure? Yes, but on a much more moderate level. Number two, or point number two, which I think is important, is what I have already mentioned. The concession fee, the level of concession fee, and potentially even in a given location, the change of the concession fee from an old to a new contract in case of renewal does not tell you anything about the quality, about the cash flow, or ultimately the return a specific contract generates over the lifetime of that contract.
Very different concepts with very different level of concession fee may ultimately yield to very similar outcome when it comes to EBITDA margin, cash flow, but also ultimately returns. I think that's fundamental and important. Moving on to a more general way of looking at the costs. We basically look at it from two different angles. On one hand side, the continuous improvement. The growth engine is the perfect example of that. It drives obviously growth in regard to turnover, but it also helps us to optimize the cost structure and hopefully reduce it. Self-checkout is one example, but we have many others. Automation of back-office processes, standardization of IT infrastructure, and all of that helps to drive or reduce the costs. On top of that, a lot of the initiatives are also coming from the people.
We have a culture where we constantly try to improve by promoting initiatives. We, for example, have town hall meetings on a quarterly basis where thousands of team members in each single town hall meeting are participating. Sometimes the ideas are coming up from those town hall meetings where somebody raises the questions or says, "Have you not thought about that?" We clearly take note of that and we implement those things if they make sense and if they lead to cost savings and ultimately increased cash flow. On top of that, on top of this continuous improvement culture, we also have the cost savings initiatives. One which is an obvious one is the rigorous zero-based budgeting process.
Every single year, every single team leader has to justify how many FTEs he has, what they are doing, what his suppliers are, why he needs them, and what the cost of those suppliers are. We are challenging ourselves on a continuous basis on that to improve the cost basis in a continuous way. On top of the zero-based budgeting process, we have the active portfolio management where we are constantly monitoring the performance of our portfolio. Obviously, like any other organization as well, not all of them are generating exactly the same return in any given year. We also have a tail, and we have some very well-performing entities.
We are constantly reviewing if we can improve the ones who are underperforming, if we have turnaround, if we can add entertainment, and what the reason is for that underperformance, and try in collaboration with the brands, with the different teams, and also with the landlord to improve those. The same applies for the cost efficiency and the cost control program. Look, sometimes it's required ad hoc that you need to take some additional actions. Maybe you see suddenly a slowdown due to whatever external factors in a given location, in a country, or even in a region. We have building blocks, predefined building blocks we can take off the shelf, customize it a little bit to the specific situation, and execute those cost savings initiatives to make sure we react very quickly in case something is not performing as it is expected.
All of that is done in a very data-driven way with tangible questions, tangible analytics of data, and hopefully tangible results. We have shown you here a couple of examples on the right-hand side. Those are just for illustrative purposes. They are real cases we are executing which have contributed to the performance improvement in 2024, are expected also to increase the performance in 2025 and beyond. Moving on to the cash flow. Look, same picture here. In 2023 and 2024, we have delivered on the cash flow in line with expectations or beyond that. In 2024, cash flow conversion has increased by 500 basis points. This compares to the guidance or outlook of 100-150 basis points improvement year-on-year. It is a tremendous improvement.
Nevertheless, we take that, the 33.5%, as a new basis, and we expect to grow from that level in line again with our outlook of 100-250 basis points year-on-year for the horizon of Destination 2027. How do we expect to do that? You see at the bottom right-hand side of the table, the key pillars there, how we plan to optimize the cash flow conversion going forward. On one hand side, it's CapEx. I'll come to that in a minute. The deleveraging and the closed debt management, as well as all the other lines of the cash flow we expect to contribute. Most importantly, CapEx. Look, it's probably also a little bit technical, but the way we do see CapEx improvement is the efficiency improvement of every single dollar we invest. CapEx is defined as 4% of turnover, while EBITDA margin is improving.
For every single dollar we do invest, we will see an improvement of that efficiency as profitability is increasing. Number two, the interest expenses or the interest paid, basically. Look, in regard to the interest paid, you will see that in a minute we have actually deleveraged quite a lot, and we have also reduced the net debt quite substantially over the last years. Yes, we have started to pay dividends, and we have started to buy back shares over two different share buyback programs over the last two years. Nevertheless, considering our outlook we have provided on top-line profitability improvement and also cash flow conversion increase, there will still be some cash left for deleveraging, even if we consider some M&A activities in line with the framework we have provided. That reduction of debt, of gross debt, will lead to further reduction of interest expenses.
On top of that, we have a very tight interest paid management by the Treasury Department, which will reduce further interest expenses going forward. If you look back over the last couple of years, all the refinancings we have done, we have done opportunistically. We are in a position, together with the strong liquidity we have in the group, based on the cash on the balance sheet and also the available financing arrangements, the RCF, that we can do that at any moment in time in an opportunistic way to reduce interest expenses going forward. The other lines of the cash flow statement, be it dividend to minorities, the net working capital, and also the income tax paid, may contribute to the conversion increase, but look, we consider them to grow rather in line with the growth of the business.
If there will be optimization potentials, we obviously look into that. That's our ambition, but it's probably going to be a little bit less pronounced than on CapEx and interest paid. Having discussed the P&L and also the cash flow statement, let me finish that section with a comment on the flexibility of the cost. As you know, and I think it's fundamental, we are an asset-light business. We have a very high flexibility on the cost on the P&L, with cost basically being 100% variable. Concession fees in a downturn scenario, and we have proven that during COVID, also being pretty flexible. A little bit more sticky, obviously, personnel expenses and general expenses, and on the cash flow statement, interest paid being the only real fixed component of the cash flow. Everything else purely variable.
That helps us when we see a slowdown in a certain region or when we see a downturn of the entire business to relatively quickly react and also have the right self-healing measures in place in case something happens. This leads me to the midterm outlook. Nothing new here. You already know it. We reiterate it. Organic growth, 5%-7% on average in the medium term. EBITDA margin improvement, 20-40 basis points, and equity-free cash flow conversion improvement, 100-150 basis points year-on-year. With that, let me go to the next section, the capital allocation and the shareholder return. Starting directly with the capital allocation policy. Also here, nothing new. You are already familiar with it. It is based on the three different pillars: invest into growth, the balance sheet efficiency with the leverage, etc., and capital returns.
Let me quickly go into all the three different pillars a little bit more detailed, starting with the invest into growth. As I have just mentioned before, we do expect to continue to invest around 4% of our turnover in CapEx. That is basically in two different areas. On one hand side, in technology, in standardization of tools into the innovation, which is all reflected in the growth engine from Club Avolta to self-checkouts to all the innovation we have discussed before, but then also the participation in tenders, in direct negotiations, and also in request for proposals, which will add to the add of additional spaces. Last but not least, into M&A. There, obviously, as we have mentioned several times or many, many times, in small and medium-sized bolt-on acquisitions, which are debt financed and accretive to and shareholder value accretive.
All those investments, be it on CapEx or also M&A, follow the same framework. It's a rigorous framework in regard to governance, in regard to approval requirements internally. It's rigorous in regard to the alignment with the strategic goals and in regard to the alignment with clear KPIs and hurdles. We are not disclosing the specific details in regard to the hurdles, but two things we want to tell you because we believe they're important and maybe we're not entirely clear so far in the past. When we are looking at projects, internal projects, business development, we look at clear IRR hurdles. We are working with discounted cash flow. We are working with internal scorecards. For every single project, we approve. The portfolio together, we are looking at ROIC, return on invested capital. The way we look at ROIC, we have display here on the right-hand side.
We believe it's a very good framework to frame any capital investment decision and also to monitor the return to shareholders over time. We have done tremendous progress over the last two years in regard to the ROIC. What is also important to note here, this is not a new KPI we want to introduce. The KPIs we are providing and the outlook we provide are the ones we already have. It's the ones we have seen before. It's the turnover growth, the EBITDA margin improvement, and the equity-free cash flow conversion increase. However, we thought it's a good opportunity to remind you and to introduce you how we think about returns and how we think about returns to shareholders going forward and how we measure it. On the second pillar of the capital allocation, the balance sheet efficiency.
We have reduced top-line net debt by close to CHF 4 billion in 2015 to around CHF 2.6 billion in 2025. A significant reduction as a total amount. At the same time, we have also reduced leverage, coming from 4.8x , so close to 5x in 2022, to 2.1x in 2024. If you ignore the treasury share cancellation in 2022, the CHF 200 million, we would actually be at 1.9. That compares to the target range of 1.5-2x. At the same time, we have received significant increase of the rating agencies in regard to three notches improvement of S&P. We should not forget that in 2022, we are a BB+ name. Over just a little bit more than 12 months, we have improved to BB+. From Moody's, we have received an upgrade of two notches.
We are now very close to the boundary of becoming investment grade, but just to be clear, this is not our primary target. Our primary target is the strategy. We are going to continue to follow the strategy, and the rating is just the outcome and the result of the execution of our strategy. If we are becoming investment grade, fantastic, but it's not the main goal. Having said that, considering all the metrics, there is a good chance that this is eventually going to happen potentially in the horizon of Destination 2027. In regard to the current status of the financing, as always, very balanced maturity profile with no relevant maturity coming up in the near future. We have one in 2026, which is a convertible of CHF 500 million, which matures in the first half of 2026. As always, we will refinance that opportunistically.
Currently, we have more than CHF 2 billion of available liquidity, so there's no requirement to refinance that, or put it that way, there's no refinancing risk in that sense. If we come to the conclusion that we want to refinance that again in a very opportunistic way. In regard to the different risk mitigation elements, we show that on the right-hand side by product, currency, or interest. We have a very balanced picture as well. We are financed by bonds, convertibles, and bank debt. By currency, we also have a split roughly in line with the cash flow of the organization to mitigate risks there as well. In regard to fixed and floating interest rates, we have around 75% of the debt being fixed, mainly under bonds and some hedges, and just a very small portion being variable, which also protects ourselves against increasing interest rates in that sense.
In regard to capital returns, we have seen some initiation of dividends last year. We have paid for the first time a dividend of around CHF 100 million, which was CHF 0.70 per share, improved by 43% to CHF 1 per share this year. A tremendous improvement. Following our outlook we are providing, we do expect to see a progressive dividend growth going forward. On the other hand, we have canceled CHF 200 million of treasury shares last year, reducing the number of outstanding shares from CHF 152 million to around CHF 146 million, a reduction by 4% already last year. We have initiated a share buyback program this year, which we have expected already half and are expected to be up to CHF 200 million once completed.
With that, the total cash return to shareholders once the share buyback this year is completed, 2023 and 2024, is more than CHF 500 million. It is actually CHF 650 million. On a per-share metric, also significant improvements when you look at earnings per share, 16% improvement year-on-year. When you look at the equity-free cash flow per share, 24% improvement. Also there, very well on track in regard to our expectations. Lastly, from my side, a quick comment on the brands. As you know, since a little bit more than a year or two years, we are operating under the Avolta brand as an umbrella brand, but we are continuing to have all the different brands used on the operational side.
We are basically a house of brands, with the most relevant ones obviously being Autogrill, HMSHost, World Duty Free, Hudson, and Dufry, the ones you know, and HMSHost. There are many others we are using on the operational side, depending on the jurisdiction, depending on the markets we are operating, and depending on the underlying business concept we run. Having said that, I conclude and hand over back to X avi.
Conclusion, only one page. Surprisingly predictable, predictably surprising. We want you, as a passenger, to know that you will be surprised, that the shops, the restaurants, experience at the airport is going to be different from what you used to have, and every time better, every time more engaged to your needs and to your desires. As an investor, we want to be surprisingly predictable.
I think thanks to the key messages we have explained today, the very clear growth contributors with a very strong growth engine, we can deliver the outlook, and we always focus on the capital allocation and at the end of the day on shareholder value. You have the commitment of the entire management team and the 70,000 team members across the board to be passionate about delivering this. Now, what everybody has been expecting, the coffee break. A couple of comments. Number one, we will be back in 30 minutes, also for the people connected online, to start the session of Q&A. We will be back at 12:45. During the coffee break here, you're going to have food, coffee experiences, the flight simulator, and some other very interesting and fun stuff. 90% of what you're going to see is actually somewhere in the Avolta network.
There is only one thing that is still in research mode. Everything else is actually in place somewhere in our network. For the people on the line, because we do not want you to get bored for half an hour, you are going to have videos, videos from our sponsors, which we thank because this event is sponsored by some of our partners. You will have a cooking class if you want. We will not be able to deliver the amazing experience you have here, but we will do the best to also enjoy it. Before we go to the break, I just want to thank all the people that have supported this event, the presentations, and all the amazing things. Thank you very much, all of you. Now we go to the coffee break. Thank you.
Club Avolta marks a new era, a game-changing global loyalty program that transforms everyday journeys into connected, rewarding travel experiences. The world's first global loyalty platform that unites duty free, food and beverage, and convenience retail into one seamless journey, operating across more than 5,100 outlets in 70 countries. Club Avolta reaches travelers everywhere, from airports, cruise ships, train stations, to highways. Members earn rewards every time they shop, with exclusive perks from members' pricing, entertainment, and gaming access, to unforgettable experiences. From celebrity meet-and-greets to luxury tastings, Club Avolta surprises and delights across every step of the traveler's journey, connected to the travel ecosystem with leading partners across airlines, hotels, lounges, and more, making every trip smoother, smarter, and more rewarding. With over 11 million members, a loyalty transaction every 2.5 seconds, and members spending three times more, Club Avolta is more than a loyalty program.
It's a data-rich traveler platform, accelerating growth whilst delivering unforgettable travel experiences.
Are you rolling? The most important ingredient in every kitchen in the world is love, because that really changes everything. That can change the dish, and it's something I always say to my team: with love, you respect the heart, the products, and their customers. I think it's a big question of love. When you pick vegetables in the morning and you serve for your guests for lunch, that is a unique experience. I think if one day we achieve to do that for the massive markets, that will be the most beautiful thing we will do in the gastronomy, in the food industry. The real challenge is to feed millions of people, and Avolta has the capacity to feed millions of people.
I want really to be part of that and prove we can feed the people with good food. I'm Mauro Colagreco. Avolta, journey on.
Avolta. Journey on. Club Avolta marks a new era: a game-changing global loyalty program that transforms everyday journeys into connected, rewarding travel experiences. The world's first global loyalty platform that unites duty-free, food and beverages, and convenience retail into one seamless journey. Operating across more than 5,100 outlets in 70 countries, Club Avolta reaches travelers everywhere—from airports, cruise ships, train stations, to highways. Members earn rewards every time they shop, with exclusive perks from members' pricing, entertainment, and gaming access, to unforgettable experiences. From celebrity meet-and-greets to luxury tastings, Club Avolta surprises and delights across every step of the traveler's journey. Connected to the travel ecosystem with leading partners across airlines, hotels, lounges, and more, making every trip smoother, smarter, and more rewarding.
With over 11 million members, a loyalty transaction every 2.5 seconds, and members spending three times more, Club Avolta is more than a loyalty program. It's a data-rich traveler platform, accelerating growth whilst delivering unforgettable travel experiences. Our shared journey is about to continue; please join us back in. Five, four, three, two, one. While Avolta may be a young brand, we've come a long way. From launching a bold new identity that set a new standard in travel retail to becoming a driving force of innovation across the globe, we're on a mission to shake things up. Over the years, we've expanded our global footprint. We've introduced groundbreaking travel retail concepts, creating hybrid stores that turn travel into experience.
We've partnered with world-class chefs, serving more than meals—delivering memories that linger. We've launched a pioneering loyalty program, reimagining the journey and rewarding every step, with exclusive benefits, seamless digital moments, and curated entertainment. Each milestone isn't just a moment of pride. It's a step toward the future we're building together. After all, Destination 2027 is only the beginning. Avolta. Journey on.
I hope everybody enjoyed the break. This is the last slide of the previous presentation, just to have a little bit of introduction: surprising, predictable, predictably surprising. Now we can go ahead with the Q&A. I think there has to be some microphones. It would be good if, that's appreciated, you state who you are before you put your question forward. Thank you.
Hi, good morning. It's Jaafar Mestari from BNP Paribas. I've got two questions, if that's okay.
The first one is just on passenger growth, where your plan seems to assume you can do 3%-4%, and you've got some aviation traffic forecasts that back that. Just on your ability to actually capture everything that's out there, one is your portfolio today a good representation of where the traffic growth will be, or are there still strong regions where you're maybe underweight? Secondly, you state yourself that a big chunk of that will be in new airport developments, new terminal developments. Is global passenger traffic even a fair benchmark for like-for-likes, or do you not need to go and win new contracts in those new terminals, win new contracts in those new airports that are coming off the ground if you wanted to match that? Just secondly, on concession fees, a strong statement that the period of high increases is over.
I appreciate not everything is public information, but we sometimes do see public RFPs coming back and some statements about increases. Just curious if you have recent proof points of bigger negotiations with stable or one-can-dream lower concession fees, please.
Thank you for your questions. To be clear, the numbers of passengers of four to the one I gave is what has happened over the last three years. The forecast we gave is 3.3 on a global basis. We have some high-growth airports, but we are also very strong in North America and Europe, both markets with a lower rate of growth than Asia, Middle East, and Africa. Our portfolio is still missing further growth in Asia to match the overall market growth. As you know, and you have the CEO of Asia-Pacific here, and she stated very good prospects of growth in Asia-Pacific.
I think on your question on the new airports, I think we need to do a good job both in renewing the contracts, in expanding existing airports, and in new airports. I think what that piece of data is interesting for two reasons. First, it shows that there are actual developments that will cope with that increased number of people that want to travel. It is going to happen. It is not just going to be more people on the existing airports. The second interesting thing is that from a competitive point of view, and I am going to link that to your last question, there will be opportunities for growth beyond just taking each other concessions, which also puts a rationale in your mindset. Every company, ourselves and our competitors, we have limited resources. We cannot go everywhere all the time. You need to choose.
If there are new opportunities for everybody, it's more likely that this concession fee behavior we are seeing. To answer your last question on the concession fees, it's complex, and we try to show it today. It depends on the geographies of the segment of business, etc. It's true and very clearly that at least one factor that is easy to explain is weighting in a lot. That is the Chinese passenger effect. For a few years, everybody believed Chinese will keep growing at double-digit on number of passengers, and the average spend per passenger of a Chinese in duty free was five times the average of the group, five times. You all have financial background. You do the numbers. You can put any offer you want. Nobody, nobody's doing that. That factor is gone. People are more rational.
What you're going to see, to be fair, he was also very clear on that. He said there still will be some pressure on the concession fee, but lower than the improvements on other pieces of the P&L, and therefore that's why the EBITDA will grow. What is happening is that we have some concessions in the portfolio that were signed 20 or more years ago. Even if the market is stable now, of course, those will require. It's not a massively material part of our portfolio, but it will give a little bit of inflation. I think, and also a very strong idea from If was, "Look, if you win a little bit more retail than F&B, the concession fee will increase a little bit." But not necessarily that will have a negative effect on the EBITDA.
I understand that it's an important metric for the investors' community and the analyst community, but we have to be careful because the concession fee goes together with the CapEx, goes together with the rest of the P&L, and it goes together with the free cash flow. You can have an increase some years on the concession fee and still have a very good improvement on the EBITDA margin. Thank you.
Hello. Hi, Xavier. Hi, If here, Alfonso Tolcheff ING, Spain. A quick question on data. 2.5 billion passengers through airports, stores where you're present, 650 million tickets per annum, 11 million Club Avolta. How will you leverage that? Because in the age of artificial intelligence, in the age of data, the potential is massive. How do you measure that, and what is the potential you see there?
We know that extracting value from data has never been so easy and so cheap. The first thing you need to have is to have the data. It's a journey. We know much more, and I hope it came across during the presentation. We know much more about our own business and our passengers today than two and a half years ago. Every time we hire a new data scientist or a new data executive, we learn how little we know. The loyalty program has been another amazing learning curve. When we started, and if you look at some of the presentation and our ambition and what we thought we could do with that, almost only a year, year and a half ago, and what we are already today is much better than what we anticipated. The journey is going to be amazing.
It's going to be accelerating over the next three years. We are not going to give a specific because we don't know yet, but the commitment to keep developing our data and digital structure is very strong. Because I think from being an enabler, from being a support of the main business, I think it's becoming in itself a driver of the business. Thank you for the question. Do we have a few questions there? You already have the mic.
Gian Marco Werro, Zürcher Kantonalbank. Two questions from my side, if I may. We heard a lot about passenger growth and also the spending per passenger. However, we didn't hear really a lot about the conversion of really getting the passengers into your stores. There was a topic over the last years and also a big topic during the last capital markets, if I remember correctly.
Can you elaborate a bit about your progress there that you made to really attract people into the stores? The second question is relating to one of your slides where we also saw a beautiful purple Avolta credit card. I know that's for illustrative purpose, but I think it's a big topic currently. If we look also at the big U.S. retailers, there are rumors that they think even about stablecoins implementation to just navigate around the huge fees that they need to pay to the banks. Me as a banker saying that there's definitely a lot of potential for you with over CHF 14 billion in revenue. Is this something that you consider to implement a credit card? Is it something that might come up in the next years? Thank you.
You take the first one. I'll take the second.
Our focus on the spend per passenger, and actually we had in one of the drafts a very complex slide on how the spend per passenger depends on conversion and average ticket, and the average ticket depends. We try to simplify. When we talk about the spend per passenger, we talk about both conversion, so the number of people, the increased number of people that gets into the stores, and how much they do spend when they are in the store. I could go, I'm not going to do it because I don't have all the data in my head, and it will take very long. On each of the pillars, there is no exception. All of them tackle both. Of course, some of them are more towards conversion, and some of them are more on average ticket.
To give an example, entertainment could be a very good way to increase conversion because you have somebody that is just running to the store, running to the gate, slowing down, stopping, and then increases the chances. We measure that. On the heat maps, together with that, there will be an analysis of the conversion of those people. Because just because they are in the activation does not mean they buy, but we measure that. Copilot for the sales force, that could help more the average ticket because it could be telling them which are the likely brands that go with one. If somebody is asking for that perfume, it would say, "Suggest this one because according to the statistics, it is likely that these two brands." Sometimes works, it does not. Each of the measures we do in the engine affect both.
On the spend per passenger, there has been an increase both on conversion and spend per ticket. If you look at the negative aspects I explained for the last three years, the Chinese, etc., you will see that most of that will affect the average ticket. If you have less Chinese, less Russians, the Argentinian effect, also the decrease on the luxury related, all those are more high average ticket. I do not have the number, but if you do it, it will mean that the conversion is proportionally even a little bit better than the average ticket. On the credit cards.
On the second one, on the credit cards. First, the reason why we used the credit cards is I did not want to show a specific credit card scheme, so we designed one ourselves.
Having said that, it's a very good point. Look, we had co-branded credit cards historically, typically isolated in specific jurisdictions. Were they successful? Yes, but not tremendously. There was one thing clearly missing, and that's the scale where loyalty is becoming relevant for us. We didn't have that before. Now, since last September, with Club Avolta, we finally have it. That's the element number one which is required. The element number two, which is not required but which will help us, is that the whole card acquiring, the whole industry in that regard, and you mentioned it before, is becoming more liberal. This kind of like oligopoly of two, three schemes is getting a little bit weaker than it used to be. That bears new opportunities for us to also go in that direction.
It's a little bit early to disclose details, but be ready for that.
If we do it, we will give you the credit.
We will give you a credit card for free.
A credit card. Top range, Tom. You cannot take it. But we will acknowledge your merit on the idea. An Avolta branded Centurion Card or something like that. Exactly.
Yeah. Good morning. Thanks very much for the presentation. Jon Cox with Kepler Cheuvreux. Two questions if I can. One just on the sort of growth drivers back to that in terms of this net spend per passenger increase of 2%-3% and the 4%-6% you're saying gross because you've had a structural decline in Chinese, etc., etc. You seem to be saying you're confident you can keep doing that over the next couple of years, i.e., 2%-3%.
Why would you be slowing down from that 4%-6%? Because the Chinese impact or the Russian impact is, that's finished. You seem to be saying, actually, we've done 4%-6% in the last couple of years. Now we're going to go to 2%-3%. Maybe just sort of talk through the dynamics of that. On the financial side, maybe a couple of ones for Yves. Back in 2022 in London, the guidance was for equity free cash flow, the expansion, blah, blah, blah. You were talking about above 30% conversion ratio. Now, I think most analysts think your conversion ratio next year is going to be above 35% already. I'm surprised you haven't maybe changed the wording a little bit on that today, maybe saying you can get to 30s, mid-30s, maybe even to 40%.
Not tomorrow, but just like in terms of where you can get to. Maybe slightly linked to that, you're talking about the margins of your three different businesses being similar at the EBITDA level, around 9%-10%. I seem to remember Xavier talking to you historically. You've always said, "No, we can't go back to the mid-teen EBITDA margin you had back in, say, 2010, 2012, 2014, whatever, because food and beverage was structurally a lower EBITDA margin business." You seem to be saying there's lots of levers that you could pull across all of the duty paid and using the data analytics in food, all of these things. Have you changed your thoughts on that overall? Do you think actually you could get maybe closer to where you have been historically? Again, it's not tomorrow. It's not part of 2027.
It's just in the longer term. Thank you.
First of all, thank you for believing so much on how everything can be improved. Look, the underlying unaffected spend per passenger, if we keep doing all the things we have explained today on the engine, should not be significantly different from what we have seen over the last three years. The same discipline we apply on outlooks, we apply on IRs when we look at the business development. You can imagine everything is going to be perfect. There will be no disruptions. There will be nothing happening. Everything will be exactly the same. No category will be affected. You can go to the higher end. The reality is that we believe the geopolitics remains very unstable. Maybe you're not going to have the Chinese, but something else that we cannot forecast is going to happen.
We want to factor that in. In general, we believe there could be negative external effects. If none will happen, of course, it will be much better. If you guarantee me in writing that no external effect will happen, maybe we change. I think the 2%-3% is a realistic forecast taken into consideration that things will happen. On the equity cash flow, you might want to take that one.
Look on the equity-free cash flow. If we go back to the capital markets day 2022, it's actually interesting to see. I mean, if you look at that specific slide, we said 2023 and 2024 are transition years. From the perspective of 2022 in September, we thought that the crisis will last for another two years, and we only reach cruising altitude by 2025. Now, things have obviously recovered a little bit faster.
We said equity free cash flow or equity free cash flow conversion will be below 30% during those transition years and only cross the 30% after that, i.e., 2026 or beyond. Now, we have already reached it in 2024 with the 33.5%. We are confident that we can improve it from that level further. Destination 2027, as the name obviously implies, is a strategy for the next two and a half years. It is 2025, 2026, and 2027. Over the horizon of that, we are confident that we can improve the equity free cash flow by 100-150 basis points year-on-year. Obviously, there is a natural boundary at some point because you have some interest expenses as long as you have leverage, you pay some taxes, you have some minority cash outflow. This is unavoidable, and this is also fine. It cannot grow indefinite.
Look, it's probably too early to speak about boundaries. That's maybe something for a next step in another capital markets day . The third one is the EBITDA.
Look, I think if you look at the details of the EBITDA margin in the mid-teens for Dufry standalone in the late 2017, 2018, 2019, that was a different profile of company. They had a different profile of concessions. It was before certain key changes of a scope. If you look at the details, that type of profitability is not realistic. I don't think we need to state that. I think it's more realistic and more predictable to say, "Look, from current levels, we will continue improving. We have not put a limit to that improvement.
You will get to a very healthy EBITDA margin. If on top of that, what Yves just said, last year we were already at a conversion of, what, 33.5. 33.5. If you add 100 and 100, that is the minimum, you are already ahead of your 35%. We are already saying that without making the number because we think people can sum up. You put all that, I think it's also relevant that for the last three years, we have not adjusted numbers. Everything that happens in the company, it's included in the EBITDA and it's included in the cash flow. When you look at that, the cash flow conversion we are having, it's very, very good. Committing to keep improving it, I think it's a very strong guidance. On the EBITDA, let's be prudent, predictable.
20 to 40 basis points, I think it's already a great number if you do it year after year. This one has already been asked three times, so we're coming to that. To you next. Yeah.
Good afternoon. It's Harry Gowers from JPMorgan . Two questions, if I can. The first one, you gave your customer conversion ratio or percentage, which was 27% early on in the slides. Maybe you could just clarify where that number has come from. Also, do you have any future targets in mind on any particular timeframe? Second question, I know this question comes up a lot, but from the outside perspective, the motorways business doesn't appear to fit into the 5%-7% organic growth profile and being a majority airports-focused group. Maybe that's obviously a misguided view, but why exactly is motorways a channel you want to own?
Have you at any point seriously considered disposing of it in the last couple of years? Thanks a lot.
The conversion rate has improved. I do not have the figure right now over the last three years. Again, we like to measure conversion. We like to measure spend per passenger, average ticket on every relevant location, because the average sometimes might be affected by the weighted average. Look, motorways, you can look at it from different points of view. From a strategic point of view, it is a complementary channel in Europe. We only have motorways in Europe to short-haul flights like trains. In a European country, if you are flying anything between one and one and a half hours, you have a real alternative by train or motorway. That is why we believe it complements the portfolio.
From a pure financial point of view, for example, it's slightly dilutive on the growth ratios because a motorway, if it grows 1%, it's a great year. When we give the numbers, and we don't want to adjust numbers because then it looks like people, but if you just make a bit of math, you have 10% growing at 1%. That is already showing you that the airport is growing even a little bit better than we show on the consolidated. It used to be, it's not anymore the case, dilutive in margins. The team down there has done a great job on fixing the P&L. We feel comfortable with the business as it is today. For the time being, that's what we believe. Motorways, train stations, and also in the Caribbean, the port and the cruise liners are also a complementary activity.
Thank you. It's Manjari Dhar from RBC. Thank you for the presentations. I also had two questions, if I may. The first one, it sounds like you've got a real wealth of data that you're leveraging now, but I just wondered how easy was it to sort of bring that together effectively across all your different systems, all the different business areas? Did you face any challenges there trying to get a sense of sort of how much headroom there is versus some of your peers? The second question, I think you mentioned earlier that you were maybe a bit underweight in Asia-Pacific, and you've got a good start with the free duty acquisition you made. I just wondered how easy could it be for you to scale up there?
Could you give any color on sort of the longer-term ambition and sort of how the operating environment differs versus where you have your mature markets? T hank you.
How we put the data together and how we extract value out of it, first with a lot of effort and very carefully. When we started just after the merger, you will not believe the type of challenges we had. Not only different systems, but we did not know how many coffees we sell because coffee was defined in one way in certain countries, in another way. There has been a massive effort over the last two and a half years on investing time, effort, and brain capacity of experts we did not have in the company to keep pushing on rationalizing the base data. We are not there yet, but we are in a much better position. That is the starting.
Going back to the earlier question, the advantage is in the past, you had to kind of create building blocks, each of them properly standardized to be able to go to the next level. Now, technology allows you to put AI, but you do not need to go as far as that. There are advanced data analytics tools that you can build on top of the existing systems. Still, ideally, you will have as much as standardized is the raw material, the better and faster it is, but it is not absolutely necessary. You might remember that when I arrived, we had a Chief Commercial Officer. Now we have a Chief Customer and Digital Officer sitting next to you with background on digital. The whole idea was to keep improving.
What I find, and that's why I'm so excited, is that every quarter, every month, we find new ways of better understanding the passengers and slowly but surely on how to monetize that straight from the passengers, doing a better job, indirectly through the brands because also data could help to improve or support the gross profit margin, the advertising income, etc. Maybe also in some cases to be used, still early stages, to convince airports that we have a basis that nobody else has, and that could also help the business development. This last piece, probably we are not there yet because we need to build the credibility year after year that we are really different. On the first two, we are already seeing tangible effects. Asia. I think your question already, so Asia, we believe we need to grow more. First, because it's a large market.
Second, because it is on average growing faster than the world. I think our emphasis today on resilience due to geographical diversification pushes for that. Not only Asia-Pacific, also Middle East, Africa, increase, for example, F&B in Latin America. To really have the three business lines across the globe. That's a strategic focus. Above a strategic focus, there is financial discipline. I have a lot of confidence on our team in Asia that we will keep growing there faster than in the rest of the world. I'm equally happy if that is delayed because the terms and conditions are not the right ones. First is cash flow and return on investment, then the strategic growth. I think sometimes you need to read very well the cycles. Asia-Pacific was a booming market because of the Chinese travelers.
There is also perception partially that that could happen also with the Indian passengers. You need to read the cycles and know when is the right moment. There is still a lot of restructuring happening in Asia-Pacific due to the companies that maybe invested too much of their bet into Chinese, and that will change. That probably requires another couple of years to settle. Our commitment to keep growing in Asia-Pacific over the next three to five years is there because we want to reflect the world passenger profile.
Hi there. Tim Barrett from Deutsche Bank. I had one question on all the really useful new data you're giving on spend per passenger. By category, it looks like alcohol down five, tobacco up five. Quite surprising, but can you talk through the implications of that, whether you expect to continue the margin implications?
Then squeezing in a second question. Obviously, Q2 was not predictable, but you're still giving reassuring guidance for the year. The question is, what's gone better than perhaps the underlying passenger data would show?
What is very interesting on the category analysis is that different things are happening in different ways. If you take that same page by country, it will also be different. You have places where actually the wine and spirits category is growing. In general, it is also very consistent with what you can see from our suppliers. The effects of margins will be none because the profitability we get from the different categories is more aligned than you would think. When it is not, it is compensated normally by the concession fee. The concession fee gross profit margin are pretty aligned.
Our airports know where we make more money, and the concession fee typically is also different by category. The EBITDA margin will not be affected by the change of categories. That, I think, has been very consistently shown over the last three years. I think the second question was for you.
No, the second one was to shift to the categories, no?
Q2. Today it's about a strategy update. We're not going to give specifics. Yes. We believe that if the world is calmer, we get closer to the 7%. If the world is more disruptive, we get closer to the 5%. Still, the 5%-7% outlook for the incoming years and this year, we feel comfortable. One thing sometimes people forget is that if people don't go to one place, it doesn't mean they don't travel. They might go somewhere else.
If you had a trip scheduled for Jordan, Lebanon, etc., those flights have been canceled. If you had a holiday to Egypt, maybe your holiday was not canceled, it was just changed to another place. Okay? We, of course, have effects of all these things that are happening in the world. We are not hedged on the world, but sometimes we are compensating one thing with another one. Let's put some order here because sometimes we go there, then we go there. Who wants to be next? Then we go there. Good. At least we have three.
Hi, so Conray Gaynor from Bloomberg Intelligence. Two questions, please. The first one, on the 0%-1% contribution to organic growth from new space, what does that imply about churn going forward? Is there still an amount of perhaps less profitable contracts that you're looking to possibly exit?
Have you therefore left some room on the table to actually beat the 0%-1% number? The second question, if we go back to your capital markets day in London in 2022, you spoke more about smart stores. I think at the time there was a target to reach 50% by 2025. What you are saying today implies the number is much lower than that at the moment, but maybe you still are seeing 50% going forward. Have you augmented the definition of a smart store over time? What does that mean therefore for the 50 basis points of CapEx that you said you were going to be investing into the store experience?
When we give an outlook, we believe it is the average outlook, and that considers positive things, negative things, etc.
Of course, we still believe that we need to win spaces, but we still need to rationalize some of the existing spaces. There will be wins, but there will be exits or losses. Okay? To be thinking that you will never lose a contract, I think it's unrealistic and probably dangerous because it means that sometimes you will sign an unprofitable contract for you because maybe for somebody else it has a different value. On the smart stores, I could tell you, yeah, we call it different. No, we had a target that was to have camera analytics. That's how we defined smart stores in 2022 by 50% of the stores. We have achieved this year 20%. It's much lower. The reason is very simple.
I said already at the beginning that the direction in all the pillars is the right one, but not everywhere we achieve. We tried one software. It did not work the way we wanted. We had to kill it, and we changed software, and that delayed a little bit. I could tell you 20 things were ahead of time, ahead of plan, and 20 things behind plan as long as the average is going in the right direction. The 50 basis points we said that we will invest on that, we have been doing that. I mean, all the things that I put on the engine growth are requiring money. Ifs and the regional and the business development teams have been making an effort, also using data to rationalize if you want basic CapEx.
That's why, despite all the investment we are doing on innovation, we are still able to be at 4% CapEx instead of 4.5% that we were expecting. I think he explained quite well how we have been optimizing the CapEx ahead. That thing, for example, goes better than expected.
Thanks.
Thank you.
Hello. Hello. Good afternoon. Thanks for the great presentation. My name is Matthieu Dürlemann from Bank of China. I have a question regarding your duty-free business in a context where tariffs are set to increase. Do you observe or do you start to observe, or do you expect a surge in the appetite of customers in purchasing duty-free? Do you have some experience in the past as to the impact on the spending per customer? Do you have some idea of a threshold of increased impact of higher duty-free in the spending per customer? Thank you.
Thank you for the question. The whole tariffs debate, it's a complex one because on one side, you could have some positive effects because your pricing is more competitive in certain products in certain geographies. You also could have some negative effects on procurement because some products you sell could become more expensive in certain locations, not in the duty free, but in other parts of the business. Overall, we have done deep analysis across the regions, and we believe that's why we didn't discuss that tariffs will be overall a neutral effect on ours. It could be positive in certain aspects, less positive in others. Overall, we believe, again, on this predictability, despite all the turbulence. You have funny things if you want. For example, you have a major decrease of Canadians going to the U.S., but that doesn't mean they don't travel.
They might go to the Caribbean. For example, you might have other nationalities that the macro economy will not make you believe there will be a major change. For example, Argentinians, because of the stable exchange rate, now they are traveling more this year than for a very long time. That has a positive effect, for example, in the U.S. They're traveling more to the U.S. It is a very funny, very entertaining business when you start to go all that. I think one of the things, because of the size, is this predictability. We will never have realistically 20%-30% sales growth in a given year. We can have that in a given location, but overall, the same is true on the other way around. We are very stable, very predictable. Thank you for your question.
We have some questions there. We come back there.
Yeah. Thank you for sharing all these insights. My name is Stefan Gross. I'm from Zurich Airport. You pointed out that a bit more than 80% of your business happens in airport environments and that it's not a classical rental agreement, but rather a collaboration of serving a joint customer. Your renewal rate of contracts suggests that these long-standing partnerships have a value in itself. My question, what are you looking for in terms of mindset and competence in an airport partner to support your growth strategy?
Thank you for the question, Stefan.
Look, I think it's difficult for me sometimes to believe it, but there are some airports that have a very static view of the world, and they believe they leave some spaces, you need to pay a concession fee, and their job is done. There are much more advanced airports like yours, where you understand very well that if we work together, there is much more potential for everybody. We challenge each other. Sometimes you come with ideas, even on our area of expertise we didn't have in mind, and I hope we do also the same. That's also, if you have the right mindset, there is the capacity to co-invest on something, which could be an experiment, and that we don't know if it's going to work or not.
In a static view of the world, you will not do it because it might create a negative financial. We said, "Let's try." In the moment you start trying more things, you can end up benefiting everybody. I think the collaboration and another thing, not only the collaboration, the exchange of data. I think the exchange of data, and ideally, even we will have the third key stakeholder at the airport that are the airlines. If one day we achieve operators, airports, and airlines to go to the next level on data sharing, this could be a revolution. Because who in retail or F&B knows who's going to be there by when? Somebody in this ecosystem of the travel knows that X individual is going to take a flight and is going to be landing that day at that hour.
If you combine that with the profile of what that person likes, imagine what you could do. We are not there, and it's not going to happen, we know for many reasons in the next two, three years, but there is even first the data we can get, then the collaboration, or together with the collaboration with the airport, and then over time, even bigger than that. Thank you. We have so many, so maybe there. You have the mic already? Yes. Okay.
Thank you. Ricardo Benevides from Santander. So two questions from my end. Firstly, regarding the loyalty member programs, you've mentioned that these members can generate a higher average transaction volume. But my question really is, how much recurrence are you being able to generate from these members?
That is, out of the whole transaction mix, how much currently are these loyalty members representing in terms of total transactions? Secondly, I'd like to ask regarding the M&A strategy. You mentioned it's small bolt-on acquisitions, but on another hand, you state that the maximum net debt to EBITDA target in case of this would be circa 2.5x . Really, could you give a better clarification of how big would one transaction be in this context? Thank you.
We are generating right now around 5.5%-6% of the total sales coming from loyalty program members. Per country, it's different. We have a country that is already at 20%, and then there are others that it might still be at 1%. We are revising some marketing tools, engagement, etc. Also, the number of frequent flyers makes a huge difference.
On touristic airports, there might be a much lower ratio or more business-related or big cities is higher. The M&A, you want to take?
Sure. Look, on the second one. I mean, basically, with the leverage target of 1.5% to 2x , and considering that for M&A or bigger business development projects, we go up to 2.5, if you do the math, it's very clear. What you can do cumulatively at the moment with a leverage of around CHF 2 billion, i.e., the CHF 2.6 billion net debt, the CHF 1.3 billion rough numbers, EBITDA we have at the moment, which yields to the 2x . If you would go now up to 2.5, you can add, give or take, around CHF 700 million of additional debt. Obviously, an acquisition would also come with some EBITDA.
We would include that in the calculation, but round numbers, CHF 700 million, CHF 800 million, maybe up to CHF 1 billion is doable. Having said that, obviously, it's not the intention, etc., but if the capacity is around that number.
Just to be clear, that was a clear question and a clear answer. It was not the planning of the specific M&A. I do not want now the headlines to go, okay? That will be the theoretical capacity. Cathy, why do you not manage a little bit the order? Thanks.
Hi, Vittorio Villa from Helikon Investments. I have one question on inflation. If you can maybe expand a bit both on top line, so spend per passenger, how inflation is impacting your business, and both on the OpEx and CapEx side in terms of inflation, also in the context that some of the growth will come from countries with high inflation.
Look, we have been showing over the years that with high or lower inflation, we have protected our margins because we are able, generally speaking, to pass through the changes on our incoming products to the pricing. Inflation sometimes has indirect effects on the exchange rate, and in some countries, it makes a country relative cheaper than the other ones, and then you have the flow of passengers changing. In general, because of our presence, the effects of the inflation on the company are very limited. Hi. Sorry. With the likes, I cannot. That is why I need you, Cathy, to say who is going to speak because we cannot see everybody. Sorry about that.
It is Manuel Lang from Vontobel.
First, on your cash returns to shareholders, we see that you rightly so and opportunistically decreased a little bit the pace of the buybacks in the last few weeks. This leads me to two questions, actually. What should we think of this in the connection to the takeover rumors that appeared a month ago, and how open are you to that? Second, how likely do you think another buyback would be for the next year, so 2026? The second question would be regarding the highway business. It might be viewed as a non-core business, but still, it would be interesting to see or hear what are the targets you have in mind for the highway business and what synergies you can still expect with the airport business and the rest. Thank you.
Thank you. I'll go with the first one.
Look, on the first one. The way we do the share buyback program is, and I do not want to go too technical, but basically, it is outsourced. We gave at the beginning of the year instruction to a bank to buy up to CHF 200 million equivalent of shares in the market, and with that, we left it there. Obviously, that comes with a certain mechanism based on the volume of daily traded volume in line with the regulation. It comes together with a certain mechanism regarding the volatility of the share price, etc. As a consequence, you may have days where the volume is lower and we buy less, or this bank buys less for us.
There are also certain days which are considered as, they call it, disrupting days where the volatility on the day before, on the actual day, is too high, and we are not buying or they are not buying for us in that regard. Purely technical, not related to us, not related to anything we decide actively. It is purely the way the system has been set up. From our perspective, it is a program for the year 2025. With the current pace, we do expect to buy up to CHF 200 million equivalent during the year. Nothing specific about that, nothing which is actively managed by us.
He asked about CBC.
About the CBC rumor, look, we as a company, we can obviously not comment on that. Again, share price has nothing to do with any rumor. Sorry, the share buyback and the slower pace there has nothing to do with any rumors.
Look, on the highway, we still believe there is a good, because of the massive number of people that goes, a good understanding of certain markets. It's true that the data you can extract from passengers in Italy or France that are our two main customers in the highways, it's more limited than if you get data from a global passenger base, but it's still worth. The second thing is indirectly or partially in procurement. It gives us a very strong purchase volume of food and beverage in Europe, which benefits also the airport business. Third, there is also some of the research in food and beverage in EMEA is done through an innovation center we have in Milano. Some of the things you're seeing here, like the motel there, etc.
We were showing earlier on a video that I recommend everybody to look from Stanley Tucci, the famous movie star that is now doing a series, I think it's in National Geographic, on food around the world. He had now, I think, a series in Italy. He chose himself to shoot part of the program in one of our service areas of Autogrill in Italy because he believed that was a key fundamental element of the culinary culture of Italy. Okay? That's a little bit how we see highways in the portfolio. Thank you.
If we've got no more questions in the room, I suggest we move to the webcast.
T hank you, Cathy. We've got four questions from the webcast. I'm going to ask them one by one.
The first question, some 2%-3% spend per passenger growth that Avolta is targeting looks like normal global inflation. Should your initiatives not be driving higher spend per passenger growth?
I hoped by now it would have been explained that that was first, it's not expected as the last few years, and that was affected by a bunch of things that, as I explained. I think that question was answered on that slide. If you improve each of them, but the way that average on categories, business lines, and type of nationality changes, that also affects.
Thank you. Second question. Thanks for offering a lot of data in the presentation. Can you also share what younger traveler shopping profiles look like and what the conversion rate of the younger shopper is compared to the older generation?
It's different, and they also react different to the assortment, the pricing, the categories, the way of shopping, how they react from self-checkouts to entertainment activation, digital activation, push notifications. I'm not going to go into the specific details because also the category younger consumer, it's a bit generic. It's not the same behavior on different locations worldwide, and it's not the same behavior even on the same age group if they go on a one-hour domestic flight or they go on a long holiday and an eight-hour flight. It is very complex. I don't think it can even be processed by any human individually. You really need machine learning and advanced data analytics to extract that and then to make it happen in the store and in the restaurant.
Thank you. The third question. You mentioned working with startups and Avolta Next.
How do you Avolta Next to impact Avolta's position and growth in the future?
It's a very interesting initiative. I'm particularly fond of it because you can accelerate innovation in an unbelievable way. The typical approach that you will have an executive that will analyze a problem, then potentially might hire a consultant, and then might do a tender, and then might select a partner to solve that specific problem. That could take a year. You go to a startup, you shoot the problem. Three weeks later, they come and they say, "That's a solution." You can split five to one. Of course, sometimes then you try and it doesn't work and the expectations were too high, but you throw it away and you start with somebody else. You can even do 20 trial and errors and you're still faster than on the old way.
It does work for everything? Absolutely not. If you're going to do an ERP transformation, you want a structured, big company that helps you to do that. If you want to solve an analytical problem on how to speed up certain analysis of the way shells work or some data on passengers, that could be helped a lot on a startup. What we have created Avolta Next is a platform where we are building a reputation. It was launched two years ago. We are building a reputation that startups know that we are serious and that if they really put forward a great idea, we are willing to deploy it and become an important customer for them. The more you do, the more traction you get.
Thank you. We've actually had two more that's come in, if that's okay. Question number four.
You've addressed the ongoing geopolitical issues, macroeconomic shifts resulting from the deceleration of the Chinese, the Russians, etc., and indeed the crisis in the Middle East has been a drag. I'd like to ask about the inverse, about Avolta's capabilities and scaling up at pace. Does this at all present any operational challenges or difficulties?
I'm not sure I got the question. Can you repeat it again?
Basically, if there's a re-acceleration in growth in various geographies, do we have an issue scaling up our capabilities?
Every change is potentially an issue, but I can tell you if I can choose, I prefer to have the issue to have to accelerate supply chain and assortment and ordering than to have to slow it down. There is no realistic forecast of things getting better that we cannot cope with. It doesn't mean we cannot improve.
We need to improve supply chain. We need to improve speed to market. There are many things. If things will accelerate, that would not be an issue. That I can confirm.
Okay. Fifth question, please. Looking at equity-free cash conversion improvement prospects under a different perspective, could you give us a sense of how much the plan improvements could come from simple concession fee management on your side?
Look, the equity-free cash improvement, I mean, actually, what we are saying is that on the profitability, EBITDA margin improvement is 20-40 basis points year-on-year. From a concession fee perspective, as I have mentioned before, we do expect to see some pressure. That specific line is either neutral or slightly negative potentially.
As Xavi has explained, there are also opportunities to negotiate and discuss with the landlord as a function of all the initiatives we are doing, all the growth engine contribution in regard to Club Avolta, in regard to the activations, in regard to entertainment, to potentially come to a conclusion in a collaborative way with the landlord that if we do invest more into the business, if we do invest more into the stores and the infrastructure, etc., to potentially result in a better result for both of us, which could potentially lead to a lower concession fee. Again, that's not from a modeling perspective what we are doing. From a modeling perspective, what we are saying is there are potential, it's continuing to be some pressure in regard to concession fees.
Thank you. Our final question is on capital allocation.
The question is, provided that commitments on CapEx and the dividend policy are crystal clear, how should we think about the priorities between M&A and the share buyback? Is it fair to assume that the share buyback is a residual allocation?
Look, the way we have shown you the capital allocation policy, I think it is clear. It is a hierarchy in a way. Number one is the investment into the business. That means organically, but potentially also inorganically. Number two is the balance sheet, the deleveraging, and number three is the return to shareholders. The dividends are expected to stay, share buyback as well, but more opportunistically in cases we have an over-capitalized balance sheet, which basically means in the absence of opportunities to do M&A transactions.
Having said that, as we mentioned several times, we are very disciplined when it comes to M&A transactions as well as business development. We have the second year in a row where we have a share buyback and treasury shares cancellation. From that perspective, you can assume it's there to stay. Again, if there are M&A opportunities, we are happy to execute those if they are accretive for shareholders and for the organization as a whole.
Great. I think we've got another question from the floor.
Can you hear me? Is it working? Yeah. It's Laura Bucher with Octavian. Really, I just have one question. It's on the capital allocation strategy as well. Just curious, really, what was the thinking behind the idea of having this potentially recurring share buyback program? I mean, I'm sure some investors are happy about it.
Me personally, I would have preferred to see a more accelerated deleveraging. I think that this is still being reflected in your share price performance. I mean, it's been good so far in the year, but still, two times is still rather on a higher level. You have expressed in the past that below 1.5, it's not really optimal for the company. I am really just trying to understand first why not, and instead of doing a share buyback, because you already pay a dividend, why not allocate that to a faster deleveraging? Thank you.
It's a very interesting question. Look, you ask 20 people, you have 20 preferred options. We did not do this based on opinion. We, and that was decided together with the board, a very structured way of something that was balancing all the key metrics for us.
Number one, investing in the business. I think the message there was the business can improve, the business can be transformed, and the business can grow. That requires investment. You could have decided to cut investment and grow less. Also, some other people also say, "I'm worried on the short term, just give me more cash flow. I don't care if you grow five years from now." They have different views. First statement, we have growth to come and we invest in the business. Second, very strong, you might like more one and a half. Some people like two and a half. Some people ask us, "Why don't you go to two and a half and three times as you used to do 10 years ago?" They are different.
One and a half to two and a half times net debt to investment, and we have been delivering on that, is a very strong commitment that leverage is taken serious, rating is taken serious, and we want to do a move. Other people might think other %, but I think that's a very strong second statement. The third statement is, look, we believe, of course, share price should progressively reflect, if things go well, the increased value we provide to shareholders, the increased value we have as a company because we are not only growing and improving profitability, but we are also more predictable. We are also more risk diversified. All that should over time reflect in the share price.
We said, "But on top of that, we should or we want to give a straight return to shareholders on the dividend and share buybacks." Again, some people love dividends, some people love share buyback. I think what is important is number one is a very balanced tackles all the key points: growth, deleveraging, and return on investors. It is consistent. We announced it two years ago, and we are delivering on it. Every time we speak, we say, "That's what we expect to come." You might like it more or less, but you cannot say like in the past that it is unclear. It is very clear. You know if you invest in Avolta what you are getting. I think that in itself is a value. That is how we came up with this capital allocation policy.
I'll just come back for one more.
I know it's not a trading update, but maybe you could just elaborate a little bit on Q2. A lot of stuff was going on, worried a lot of people. Maybe just talk about what did you see in your business in Europe because of what was happening in the Middle East. We saw planes weren't allowed to land and all of this type of stuff. Also just on the North American market, you can see that TSA passenger data continues to weaken. If you can just give us some sense of how things are and the fact that you're very confident of reaching at least 5%, come what may, when the environment is not great. Thank you.
Thank you, Jon.
We had a lot of along the way that some questions on current trading will come, and we decided we will only need to wait one month for the reporting of a half a year. We are not going to update because it is not today. Today, it is about the mid and long-term strategy. I think, as you just said, we have done a very strong statement already saying that for the full year we expect. Of course, the slowdown in the U.S., we still see it, but that is factoring on our statement. We have seen some effect on, obviously, the aerospace in some countries like Israel and certain parts of the Middle East is close or limited. Of course, that will have an effect.
Despite that, we choose to say, because we believe it's the case, that for the overall year, all these effects will balance each other and still we will be on the outlook that we have for the year. Hopefully, if everything becomes less volatile, that, of course, is helpful. What we have seen so far is not big enough to deviate us from our outlook for the year. Okay.
I was just going to say that we're going to close now with Xavi and then ask a few more questions.
I know you already. Look, just a few words that are all the same. Thank you. First, thank you for the people attending here. I know in today's world, taking a flight.
Thank you in advance for all what you're going to shop later on when you fly out of Barcelona in one of our amazing shops at the airport. Big thank you for that. Also, big thank you because you're going to sign up to be a loyalty club member of Club Avolta if you are not. Thank you to all the team that has helped to prepare that. Now, for the people here, we have some extra refreshments, I think. Later on, and I'm sure whoever has the time can sign off, sign in for a visit to the airport here in Barcelona. We are going to visit the terminal and show you in 3D and real some of the things we have explained today. Again, thank you very much.