Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Julius Bär 2026 half-year results presentation for analysts and investors. I am Sandra, the Chorus Call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants have been listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it is my pleasure to hand over to Alexander van Leeuwen , Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Julius Bär half-year results call. I am Alex van Leeuwen , Head of Investor Relations. We are joined today by our CEO, Stefan Bollinger, and CFO, Evie Kostakis. Before starting, I would like to flag the important information provided on slide two of the presentation. It is now my pleasure to hand over to Stefan for his introductory remarks.
Thank you, Alex. Good morning, everyone, thank you for dialing in today. Let me start by giving you my take on our half-year results. It has been an intense but highly productive first half for Julius Bär. Overall, we delivered a very strong operating performance, which was driven by exceptional client activity, especially in the first quarter. The results also reflect the depth and breadth of our capabilities and the ability of our team to help clients navigate complex markets and capture opportunities. Let's have a look at the figures. Assets under management reached CHF 547 billion, up 5% year- to- date, the highest level in our history. Net new money amounted to a solid CHF 5.7 billion, which we achieved despite the ongoing implementation of our revised risk and compliance framework.
We generated a record half-year net profit of CHF 673 million, a like-for-like increase of 32% year-on-year. Our gross margin expanded to 87 basis points, our cost-income ratio improved to 62.6% as we delivered further positive operating leverage. Capital generation remained strong with the CET1 ratio increasing to 18.5%, underscoring our solid capital position and financial resilience. Regarding capital distribution, I would like to reaffirm that any further share buybacks remain subject to approval by FINMA. We continue to have an active and constructive dialogue with FINMA, the timeline is ultimately theirs. In short, we have no further update at this point. You know, the first half also marks the start of our new 2026-2028 strategic cycle.
We continued to progress steadily on our strategic priorities and are in execution mode on all five pillars: growth, efficiency, risk and compliance, technology, and last but not least, our people agenda. First, we launched our growth program in February, and we are pushing to unlock organic growth. Front to back, everyone is involved. At the same time, we continue to progress on the implementation of our revised risk and compliance framework. On the operational side, our focus is on simplifying end-to-end processes, taking a risk-based approach, and leveraging technology, including AI. One example of how we apply a risk-based approach is the work we did on streamlining the client onboarding process in Switzerland. Among many use cases, an example of how we leverage AI is the work we did on material improving name and media screening.
On the fifth pillar, we progressed on the culture transformation agenda with emphasis on performance and ownership. Overall, I'm proud of what the team achieved and where we stand. Of course, there's still a lot of work ahead, and it's crucial we all remain focused on executing with discipline. With that, I hand over to Evie to walk you through the financials.
Thank you, Stefan, and good morning, everyone. As usual, before turning to the results, I'd like to begin on page seven with an overview of the key market developments during the first half of the year, as these will help frame the context for our performance. Despite the shock in March, global stock market indices were up meaningfully, albeit with quite a wide dispersion of returns. For example, while the Nasdaq was up 20%, the SMI was up just 7%, and Hong Kong and India were actually down more than 10%. Bond markets were little changed, and while the Swiss franc strengthened slightly versus the euro, the franc saw some modest weakening versus the dollar. The prices for precious metals showed significant swings, especially at the end of January, when both gold and silver, following record peaks, experienced their sharpest one-day sell-offs and most extreme intraday swings in decades.
In terms of central bank interest rates, we saw the ECB hike by 25 basis points in June, the first time they raised rates since September 2023, whereas the U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged for now after three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts in quick succession in the second half of 2025. The Swiss National Bank kept rates at 0%. The third set of graphs on the bottom left of the page shows that the shape of the key yield curves continued to normalize. Finally, stock market volatility, as measured by the VIX, increased in the first quarter with a spike in March before normalizing in the second quarter. Moving on to slide eight, which shows assets under management up 5% to an all-time high of CHF 547 billion on the back of positive market performance, continued net new money, and the stronger dollar.
Monthly average AUM, important for the margin calculations, grew by 7% year-over-year to CHF 526 billion, and with assets under custody up 10%, this brings total client assets to just shy of CHF 650 billion. Proceeding to net new money on slide nine. A bit similar to what happened in H2. We started the period slowly but picked up some momentum in the last two months, ending with net new money of CHF 5.7 billion, and that's a 2.2% annualized run- rate. Growth continues to be weighed down by the ongoing rollout of our revised risk and compliance framework. That said, every region added inflows with Western Europe, including Switzerland, delivering particularly strong results. Most of the inflows came from RMs still delivering on their agreed business cases, typically over a three- to four-year horizon, and on average, they're performing right in line with our expectations.
On the topic of client leverage, after pausing in the first four months, we saw clients starting to take on some leverage again in May and June. Now let's go to revenues on slide 10. Compared to the underlying result a year ago, thanks to the record-high AUM and the exceptionally strong client activity in the first quarter, operating income grew by 12% to CHF 2.276 billion. Net commission and fee income grew 12% year-on-year to CHF 1.279 billion, largely driven by the 7% year-on-year increase in average AUM and a rise in brokerage commissions. Net interest income rose 80% to CHF 130 million, driven largely by lower deposit rates, resulting in total interest expense dropping 21% to CHF 714 million. Despite higher average loan volumes, interest income from lending fell 16% to CHF 529 million, impacted by lower rates.
In contrast, income from the treasury portfolio edged up 2% to CHF 270 million, supported by slightly higher balances. Net income from financial instruments at fair value through profit and loss grew 9% to CHF 876 million. The boost came mainly from strong performance in FX and metals trading, as well as structured products, especially in the first quarter, before moderating in Q2 as conditions settled. On Treasury swaps, income dipped slightly despite higher average volumes as the yield spread between U.S. and Swiss rates compressed compared to last year. On slide 11, we regroup the IFRS revenue lines in an alternative way with the aim to better reflect the three key business drivers, i.e., recurring income, interest-driven income, and activity-driven income.
For the definitions and how we derive this alternative split from the IFRS view, please refer to the appendix. I note that the treasury swap income figures we use are based on management accounts. What this alternative view shows clearly is how the 12% year-on-year revenue increase was driven mainly by higher activity-driven income, which grew by 30% to CHF 710 million, and by recurring income, which rose by 10% to CHF 984 million. While the jump in accounting net interest income was tempered by lower treasury swap income, thereby limiting the growth in interest-driven income to 2% or CHF 593 million. On slide 12, we show the same in gross margin terms.
The year-on-year increase in gross margin from just over 83 basis points to almost 87 basis points is essentially the result of a 5-basis point increase in the activity-driven gross margin to 27 basis points and a 1-basis point decrease in the interest-driven gross margin to 23 basis points, with the recurring gross margin holding stable at 37 basis points. The exit gross margin in the last two months, i.e., May and June, was 80 basis points, of which somewhat more than 37 basis points from recurring income, well over 21 basis points from interest-driven income, and slightly less than 23 basis points from activity-driven income. By the way, in the appendix, you can find an overview of the gross margin development on the basis of the IFRS revenue split. Now let's move on to operating expenses on slide 13.
Costs reach CHF 1.462 billion, an increase of CHF 36 million or 2%, well below the 12% growth rate in revenues, i.e., delivering healthy operating jaws. The increase was driven by personnel costs, which were up CHF 37 million or 4% to CHF 974 million, driven by a 1% year-on-year rise in average headcount and higher incentive and performance-related compensation. The rise in headcount was largely driven by further internalizations as part of our cost improvement focus, as well as a one-off technical FTE true-up in H1 related to the treatment of long-term absentees. General expenses held steady at CHF 371 million. This included provisions and losses of CHF 37 million, up by CHF 1 million or 3% year-on-year. When excluding provisions and losses in both periods, we saw a 1% year-on-year decrease to CHF 333 million.
This reflects a balance between higher spending on technology investments, which rose as part of our platform modernization initiative in Switzerland, and significant cost savings achieved through efficiency measures and internalizations. The sum total of depreciation and amortization was unchanged at CHF 117 million. The costs in H1 included CHF 7 million costs to achieve related to the new efficiency improvement program, with fiscal year savings of CHF 11 million already benefiting the P&L in the first half of the year. Gross run- rate savings of CHF 60 million have already been implemented by the end of June. As a result, the expense margin improved by 3 basis points year-on-year to 54 basis points. Thanks to the cost management and of course the elevated gross margin, the cost-to-income ratio came down by almost 6 percentage points to 62.6%.
However, it is important to note that this outcome benefited from an exceptionally favorable revenue environment, one that we do not expect to repeat regularly in our planning. Additionally, we are continuing to roll out significant investments over the next few years. For these reasons, I would caution against extrapolating the year-to-date strong cost-to-income performance into the near future. Slide 14 summarizes the profit development. Thanks to the all-time high in AUM, the pronounced client activity, and the improved operating leverage, net profit reached a record high half-yearly level of CHF 673 million. In terms of IFRS net profit, that meant profits more than doubled year-on-year. Considering the large items impacting the results a year ago, the like-for-like increase was 32%.
The pre-tax margin improved by 6 basis points to 31 basis points, while the return on CET1 capital increased from 28% to 32%, despite a very significant buildup in capital, as we will see in a few slides. Our forward tax guidance for the current strategic cycle is unchanged at between 18% and 20% and takes into account the currently expected impact of the implementation of the OECD minimum tax rate in different jurisdictions. On to the balance sheet on slide 15. Our balance sheet remains highly liquid, with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 61% and one of the highest liquidity coverage ratios in Europe at 344%. Year- to- date, the balance sheet grew 8% to nearly CHF 117 billion. The main driver was client deposits, up 8% to CHF 72 billion.
On the asset side, loans rose 5% to CHF 44 billion, with Lombard lending up 7% to CHF 36 billion, while mortgages edged slightly down 2% to CHF 8 billion. The treasury book also expanded up 15% to CHF 18 billion, supported by growth in both fair value through OCI assets up 13% to CHF 10 billion, and bonds at amortized cost, which rose 17% to CHF 8 billion. As there was relatively little change in the Swiss franc exchange rate versus the key currencies, the FX neutral changes were not meaningfully different. Turning to the capital development on slide 16. Julius Bär finished the first half of 2026 with a significantly stronger capital base. CET1 capital rose by CHF 0.4 billion to CHF 4.3 billion, a 9% increase since year-end. During the same period, risk-weighted assets grew to CHF 23.3 billion, an increase of 3% driven by increases in credit risk positions and market risk positions.
Overall, this translated into a CET1 capital ratio of 18.5%, a 1.1 percentage point increase over the past six months, reflecting the highly capital-generative nature of our business model. The risk density was 20% at the end of June, and we've slightly reduced our guidance for the cycle to 21%-23%. Finally, on slide 17, a quick review of the development in the Tier 1 leverage ratio. As a result of the CET1 capital development and the impact of the $350 million Tier 1 redemption in April, Tier 1 capital increased by 2% to CHF 5.6 billion. The leverage exposure increased by 7% to CHF 120 billion, basically in line with the growth of the balance sheet. As a result, the Tier 1 leverage ratio declined somewhat to 4.7%, but clearly remains very comfortably above the regulatory floor of 3%. With that, it is my pleasure to hand back to Stefan.
Thank you, Evie. Our financial performance in the first half of 2026 reflects good progress against our midterm targets, which we reconfirm today. There's still work to be done, and we remain fully focused on delivery. Now, let me summarize the key takeaways. We achieved a strong operating performance in the first half of 2026, which confirms the strengths of our business model and momentum in the execution of our strategy. The implementation of our revised risk and compliance framework continues. We are making steady progress on all our strategic priorities, with a particular focus on reigniting organic growth and on driving culture change. Before we go into Q&A, I would like to take a moment to thank Evie, given today marks our last results call together. Evie, you have been instrumental in repositioning Julius Bär for long-term success.
On a personal note, I am deeply grateful for your support since I joined the bank. This is not quite goodbye, given the upcoming handover to Pete, but I want to sincerely thank you and to wish you every success in the next chapter of your career. With that, let's transition to Q&A.
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Questioners on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode while asking a question. Anyone with a question may press star and one at this time. Our first question comes from Anke Reingen from RBC Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for taking my questions. The first one is just on the RM target. I think for the IMS date, you told us that the number you expected to be higher by year-end. Can you just give us an update on where you think the relationship manager could end at the end of the year, and if you still target the 150 hires? Then just on the guidance on net new money continued, or the commentary about net new headwinds to 2027 flows. Given you already can give us that comment now, is there like a target AUM base you think that is at risk from your review to get a sense of how much of a headwind we still should expect in 2027? Do you still expect net new money to be higher 2027 than 2026, or is that too early to say?
Thank you very much.
Good morning, Anke, and thank you very much for the questions. Let me take the first one. We ended the first half of the year with 1,247 RMs. On a gross basis, we have onboarded 47 RMs, with further 14 hires already signed and expected to start in 2026, and advanced recruitment discussions ongoing with more than 50 candidates. We're very pleased about the pipeline. I wouldn't focus too much on the slight net decrease at June end, because if you include the 14 RMs who've already signed, the development would've been flat at June end. RM leavers are mainly driven by our continued disciplined exercise of stringent performance management. I would also say that in terms of gross hiring, given the challenging environment we have, particularly in the Middle East, we would now expect to hire around 120 or so RMs in 2026.
That said, we still expect to see a slight net increase in the total population of RMs by year-end.
Hi, Anke. Good morning. On your question about the 2027 net new money guidance. In order to frame this, let me take you back to our strategy update in June last year. We're very focused on repositioning our business for the future, focused on quality core wealth management, which can yield predictable, repeatable, and sustainable performance for our shareholders. On the back of the new strategy that we announced in June, the Board approved a new risk and compliance framework last October, and since we have been working on implementing it. As it stands, we indeed anticipate that the impact from the implementation of the revised risk and compliance framework will carry over into 2027.
As you know, we are in the wealth management business, and de-risking takes time, especially if you think about clients that have a complex setup, illiquid investments, and other circumstances that mean that it takes time to exit that. Ultimately, of course, we want to do these exits in an appropriate manner for the impacted clients. Therefore, we should expect some continued headwind into 2027. At the same time, the situation will normalize in 2028. This exercise obviously doesn't help flows in the short term, but it will lead to an improvement of the quality and long-term sustainability of our book. My view is short-term pain for long-term gain. I'd also mention at the same time, we are ramping- up our growth initiatives, and while this takes some time, we expect some positive impact in 2027 already.
All in all, de-risking will be normalizing on one hand, and our growth initiative will bearing some fruit on the other hand, which is why we're very confident about our 2028 target. In terms of how to quantify this, at this point, we reiterate the guidance we have given in May that net new money for 2026 will be below 2025. We told you this morning, we expect this to spill over into 2027, but it's too early to quantify the impact. It's impacting predominantly existing clients, but of course, also prospects.
Okay. Thank you very much, Evie. Thank you for everything, and all the best.
Thank you so much, Anke.
The next question comes from Ben Caven-Roberts from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Morning, both. Thank you very much for the presentation and taking the questions. Two from me, please. First, just on personnel expenses and the cost-income dynamic. If we look at the adjusted operating income, I think that was up 12% year-on-year, personnel expenses were up 4% year-on-year. Would you see that as the right balance? If we think net relationship managers are down slightly, as mentioned, I know that's largely a function of ongoing performance management measures, if you're looking at the pay-for-performance culture and how it currently stands, and within that personnel expense line, if there's more moving beneath the surface and between different cohorts of the business. Secondly, just on net new money, is there any other color you'd give on the regional split?
Particularly interested in how you see dynamics in Asia following some recent policy measures in Hong Kong and mainland China. Thank you.
Hey, Ben. Good morning. Thanks a lot for the questions. On the personnel expenses side, obviously, we had a fantastic development on our top- line in the first half, which we are super pleased about. In that respect, we've also reflected that in performance incentive accruals. In terms of the cost-income ratio dynamics, of course, the 62.6% print is a very good print. I note that in May and June we had an exit cost-income ratio of 63%. If you were to ask me about the outlook for the year, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, I would not extrapolate that performance into the second half of the year. The reason is because we do expect to see some cost build-up in the second half of the year.
From today's perspective, assuming an 80 basis points gross margin input factor, this is not a forecast, just an input factor, happens to coincide with the exit margin we had in May and June. For the second half of the year, I would expect the cost-income ratio to be below 67%. I foresee an increase in costs in the second half, largely driven by three factors. Number one, we have front-loaded investments, particularly in relation to the ongoing renewal of our Swiss core banking platform, along with increased amortization from prior year investments. These costs are expected to weigh in in the second half, with obviously longer-term benefits materializing on a back-ended basis. Number two, we see an increase in cost to achieve in terms of our efficiency program.
We've just had CHF 7 million for the first half of the year, and we see that number picking up in the second half of the year as we tackle more structural elements of the cost base. Third, of course, we're going to be stepping up our spending related to the hiring of new RMs as part of our targeted growth strategy. These investments, coupled with our ongoing focus on cost discipline, are expected to drive long-term operating leverage and support the achievement of our target of a cost-income ratio sustainably below 67% by 2028. As I've always said, it's not going to be a straight line.
The next question comes from Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning. Two questions, please. First, coming back on the question on the regional split, it's not only this half year, but consistently over the last years that Western Europe is very strong, which should be seen as a more mature market. On the other hand, Asia is solid, but not the outstanding performer. Maybe you can comment on those two regions. What is Europe doing particularly well and where Asia could accelerate? Secondly, CHF 23 million of credit losses. Obviously, grand scheme of things, it's a small number in particular as compared to the last two, three years. Still it's above the, call it run- rate we had previously.
Just wondering, with less risk taking on the lending side, whether you can comment whether this is the new normal or whether there are still some smaller cases apart of the cleanup pushing up that number. Thank you.
Thanks a lot, Ben. I will also answer Ben's question from before on net new money development by region. As we outlined in the opening remarks, all regions contribute to net flows with particularly quite strong contributions from Western European markets, including obviously our home market, Switzerland. If I look ahead, we continue to expect strong contributions from all key regions. In the Middle East, we saw some impact from the effects of the war, but we did see some normalization of flows, particularly in May and June. The RM hiring environment there remains challenging. With respect to Asia, I would say that in May and June in particular, when we saw a restart of releveraging after it had paused or ground to a halt in the first four months of the year, we saw very strong contribution coming from clients from our Asian franchise.
They accounted for about 60% of that releveraging. That's the commentary on the net new money regional developments. We are very bullish in Asia. In the longer run, the pace of wealth creation there is just astounding, and our franchise is very strong and we're there to capture the opportunities. In terms of the credit losses, we had CHF 23 million worth of credit losses in the first half of the year. These are primarily associated with the income-producing real estate portfolio that we earmarked for managing down as we announced in the November IMS last year. I wouldn't say that there's any unusual development there. In fact, exposure has come down by 20%, which is a pleasing development.
The other thing I'd note is the market has stress-tested our Lombard book twice this year, once in January with extreme volatility in the precious metals space, and then once again in March when the war broke out, and it has passed with flying colors. We're quite happy with the performance there.
Maybe just to add to Ben's question on the Chinese regulatory developments. I was just in Asia last week, and obviously something discussed with the local colleagues. The team on the ground sees these repatriation regulations mainly as a formalization of the process on capital flows in and out of China. As you know, all the official regulated channels Wealth Management Connect, Stock Connect to Hong Kong, all remain fully open. Our team on the ground doesn't see any reason for concerns. In fact, as Evie just highlighted, we're very bullish on the long-term prospect of the region. We celebrate 20 years on the ground, and we're doubling down on investments there.
Thank you. All the best.
The next question comes from Nicholas Herman from Citi. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just coming back to the de-risking, please. Sorry if I missed this, could you quantify the impact of the de-risking in the first half from the revised risk and compliance framework? I think you said it's too early to quantify, but I guess just broadly, do you expect that rate to increase from here? Just sorry, this is a final related question. Does that impact of de-risking in 2027 mean that the progress on net new money will be more hockey stick now, or are you still expecting a consistent path to the 4%-5%? On the recurring margin, just curious if there were any performance-related elements in your recurring margin in this period, which has expanded quite nicely. I guess on a related note, you're already in the 37 basis points-39 basis points range.
Does this make you more confident that you can get to the upper end of that range? I'm just kind of curious how you're thinking now about the recurring margin from here. Thank you.
Thank you, Nicholas. Let me start with the net new money question. You're absolutely right. We should think more of a hockey stick type of development, given by 2028 we'll have the higher de-risking because of the implementation of the risk and compliance framework behind us. Of course, at the same time also, we'll see the benefit of all the investments we make on the growth side. In terms of the specific impacts, hard to quantify given it affects both existing clients, but also prospects.
Hey, Nick. Evie here. On the recurring margin, yes, we did a little bit above 37 basis points. We're happy about that. We've always said this is going to be a slow grind to get to the 39 basis points. The levers are well known. We talked about them extensively in the strategy update last year. What I would say is that we've had quite some success in terms of our discretionary mandate flows. Discretionary mandate penetration has gone up to 17% from 16%, where it had dropped post the deconsolidation of the JB family office in Brazil. Yes, we like the development, the recurring margin, and we are full throttle trying to do our best to get it up there. As we've always said, it's going to be a slow grind.
Please. On that, have you seen any impact on demand for private assets on the back of all the negative news flow? I guess if penetration of private assets were to remain unchanged from here, would there be a lack of uplift in your recurring margin versus the path that you set out in your strategic plan? I guess, would you be able to roughly quantify that lack of uplift if private asset penetration were to be unchanged?
Look, there's a lot of moving parts. What I would say is that where we are in terms of our private markets penetration, we have a lot of upside ahead of us, Nick. I'm optimistic that we'll be able to get that gross margin associated with recurring up in the next couple of years. I think, Stefan, maybe you have a couple comments to add.
Look, generally, I would say that in private markets, given there's a lot of money leaving the space, that maybe you could argue should never have been there in the first place. This opens up opportunities for sophisticated, high-net-worth clients like ours. We see lots of opportunities to take advantage of that. Can think of private credit, can think of some of the opportunities in buyout, but of course, also in venture.
The next question comes from Hubert Lam from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. I've got three questions. Firstly, on RM hires, can you talk about which regions are you hiring them from? Is there a focus in particular countries or regions? That's the first question. Second question is about releveraging. Good to see a boost in May and June. Is this the start of more you think releveraging to come? Do you think this can be maintained? Lastly, just a clarification. Evie, I think you mentioned the exit margin in May- June. Did you say that net interest-driven margin was 21 basis points? Just wanted to check if that was correct. Thank you.
Thanks, Hubert, and thanks a lot for the question. I'll start from the third one. On the gross margin for the exit rate for interest-driven, it was well above 21 basis points. In terms of the releveraging that we saw in May and June, I think if you take into account the lately quite hawkish narrative that's coming from central banks across Europe and the U.S., and what the market is pricing in now in terms of potential rate hikes, I would be cautious to extrapolate the releveraging trend for the rest of the year. We don't do so in our budgeting, and as you'll recall from the strategy updates that we did last year in London, we've put out those midterm planning targets, assuming a stable lending penetration at current levels. Finally, the first question on RM hires.
We are hiring across the board in all our key regions with a particular focus in our key markets.
Great. Thank you, and Evie, good luck in the future.
The next question comes from Amit Ranjan from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have one, please. Can you please talk about the split in contributions coming from seasoned advisors versus those on a business case that you have talked about in the past? Thank you.
Hi. Good morning, Amit. Thanks a lot for the question. The split between seasoned RMs and RMs on business case has held steady from where it was last year. It's about two-thirds to one-third. I would also say that we're very pleased with the performance of our relationship managers that are on business case. Business case achievement rate is around 69%. As you know, the average business case is around CHF 200 million, and I would also call out the fact that today we have about 31% of our relationship manager population on business case, which is the highest proportion in the last seven and a half half-year periods.
Maybe just to add, Amit, obviously this also implies that there is a lot of upside in terms of the productivity over our seasoned RMs, and it's a big focus item as part of our growth strategy.
Thank you. Thanks once again, Evie, for all the engagement over the years, and wish you the best for the future. Thank you.
Thank you, Amit.
The next question comes from Stefan Stalmann from Autonomous. Please go ahead.
Good morning. I have two questions, please. It looks like you actually wrote off a good chunk of your impaired loans, about CHF 600 million during the first half. Is that related to the infamous property group that caused problems in late 2023? Is the fact that you are writing off this exposure also implying that the chance of recoveries here is now very low? The second question I wanted to ask is about the risk and compliance framework on the exercise to introduce this new risk and compliance framework. Is it fair to say that the completion of this project will be a condition for FINMA to sign off on the enforcement action, or are those two things totally unrelated? Thank you very much.
Hi, Stefan. Good morning. Thank you for the question. Indeed, if you look at note nine in our half-year report, which I assume you have already done, you will see that we have written- off the largest exposure associated with the private debt exposure in 2023. I will note that last year we had quite substantial recoveries from that position. Going forward, we of course are trying to recover some more, but I think from now on, the recovery potential is more limited.
Stefan, on your second question. First and foremost, this exercise is about bringing our business in- line with our core wealth management lane and the strategy that we outlined last June. We are very focused on having a book that has the right parameters going forward.
Okay. Thank you very much, and all the best, Evie. Thank you.
Thank you, Stefan.
The next question comes from Giulia Aurora Miotto from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions, and Evie, thank you very much for the dialogue and all the best for the next adventure. In terms of questions, costs. Second half, some investments you are flagging. Could you quantify perhaps how much do you expect costs to increase in the second half or how much costs to achieve do you expect? Then Stefan, on your comment about the hockey stick on new money in 2028? Does this mean that you probably expect 2026 and 2027 to be roughly stable around this level, like 2.5%- 3%, and then the step up towards 4%-5% in 2028? I'm wondering because consensus is currently expecting 3.5% in 2027, and I'm wondering if that's realistic or probably it will be lower. Thank you.
Morning, Giulia, thanks a lot for your kind words and for the questions. Let me start with the costs. I think I tried to give some indication. If you take the exit margin of May and June in terms of gross margin of 80 basis points, you take that as an input factor, I would expect the cost-to-income ratio for the second half of the year to be less than 67%. I do not want to give you a specific number on cost growth, but what I can tell you with respect to the cost to achieve, we did CHF 7 million in the first half of the year. I expect that number to more than double in the second half.
Giulia, on your question around the hockey stick. As we said before, we do not have enough visibility yet. It is too early to quantify the impact for 2027. What we are saying is that there is a gradual positive impact coming from all our growth initiatives. As always, our strategy is not to kick the can down the road, we are trying to get the book in line with our risk and compliance framework as soon as possible. All we can tell for now is that it is likely spilling over into 2027.
Thank you. Sorry, can I just go back to the comment on cost income below 67% in the second half? Essentially, you are already at the 2028 target in the second half. Do you expect it to stay there, to improve in 2027, or 2027 will be more investments, and therefore, you can maybe be above 67%?
Why don't we give you an update on that in the November IMS when we are more progressed with our planning cycle for 2027, Giulia, if that is okay. It will be Pete giving you the update, not me, but we speak with one voice.
All right. Thank you.
The next question comes from Jeremy Sigee from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Morning. Thank you. Just one follow-up, please. On the advisor numbers, you're still seeing quite heavy advisor exits. I just wondered, rough terms, what proportion of those are recent hires from the last three years not working out versus longer tenure, seasoned RMs rotating off? What's the rough split of the exits that you're seeing at the minute?
Morning, Jeremy. Thanks a lot for the question. I would say that the vast majority is RMs on a business case that were not able to perform according to our expectations rather than seasoned RMs. By definition, seasoned RMs are RMs that have made it.
Thank you, and thanks, Evie, for everything. Thank you very much.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star followed by one. Our next question comes from Nicolas Payen from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes, morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two, please. The first one is coming back on the de-risking side. Just wanted to know if there is any region which is more impacted than the others from this exercise. The second one would be on the interest-driven income outlook going into H2 and 2027. We have rate cuts, we have deposits which are repricing, we have a bit of loan by growth. How should we think about the interest-driven income going forward? I think you mentioned that the interest-driven income was well above 21 basis points on the exit margins. As a side question, could we have the size of the treasury swap book as well, please? Thank you.
Morning, Nicolas. Thanks for the question. On the size of the swap book, I'll start from the last one, the FX swap book. It's around CHF 27.5 billion as of H1. In terms of the interest-driven income, the component of gross margin, I did mention it was a little bit above 21 basis points in terms of exit margin. Part of that was due to an increase in time and call deposits towards the end of the period, which impacted a little bit the number. However, in our forecast for the second half of the year, we're looking at a contribution from IDI of around 22 to 23 basis points. With respect to 2027, I think we'll be able to give you a better picture once we're further progressed with our planning for next year.
On your first question on de-risking, we do not disclose the detailed description of our risk and compliance framework, but you can think of different client types in high-risk countries or certain sensitive industries that no longer fit our risk profile.
Thank you, good luck for the future, Evie. Thank you.
Thank you, Nicolas.
We have a follow-up question from Anke Reingen from RBC Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, sorry, just two follow-up questions. The first one, you say you expect the RM number to be higher by year-end. Is that relative to end of June? I just have a question about your dividend accrual at 120 basis points versus 300 basis points capital generation. Just to confirm, your dividend payout ratio guidance for this year is 50%. Thank you very much.
Thanks for the follow-up questions, Anke. Yes, the dividend policy remains unchanged. With respect to the net increase in RMs, I referred to year-on-year.
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Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Stefan Bollinger for any closing remarks.
Thank you all very much for your engagement and your questions. We'll be back with our next update at the IMS in November. As usual, the Investor Relations team is available offline in case of further questions. Thank you all, have a good day.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect.