Good morning and welcome to today's conference call of BKW. We are going to share further explanations regarding today's ad hoc release. My name is Sandra. I'm the Chorus Call operator. Please note that attendees today are in listen-only mode during the call, and that the conference call will be recorded. Afterwards, you will have a chance to ask questions by pressing asterisk and one. Should you need assistance, please press asterisk and zero on your phone. The conference cannot be recorded for publication. It is prohibited. Let me hand the floor to Robert Itschner, the CEO of BKW.
Good morning and welcome to today's analyst and media call. Thank you very much for taking the time to join us at such short notice to accompany us through this ad hoc meeting. We would like to start by explaining the ad hoc announcements, and we'll certainly be available for any questions that you may have. Now, what are the main messages for our media call? BKW expects the Wilhelmshaven Coal Power Plant to generate less electricity in the future. Combined with decreasing volatilities in electricity prices, revenues from the operation of the power plant are expected to decline accordingly. This results in a value adjustment of around 110 million CHF on BKW's stake in the Wilhelmshaven Coal Power Plant. The power plant has thus been fully impaired. To expand flexible energy production, BKW, together with partners, is planning to build an H2-ready gas power plant in Germany.
Now, what do those decisions have in terms of an impact? Well, BKW expects operating results of CHF 650 million-CHF 670 million for 2025, following the impairment on the Wilhelmshaven Power Plant. The new EBIT guidance for 2025 is CHF 540 million-CHF 560 million. For 2026, BKW expects earnings within EBIT guidance range of CHF 650 million-CHF 750 million. Now, in the following, I'm happy to talk about some further details. The value adjustment to Wilhelmshaven. With its Solutions 2030 strategy, BKW communicated ambitious sustainability goals in the areas of climate, energy, nature, and people on November 8th, 2024. It set itself the goal of halving its Scope 1 and 2 CO2 intensity by 2030 compared with 2022. In addition, BKW is aiming for net zero emissions in Scope 1 and 2 across the entire group by 2040. We naturally remain committed to these goals.
We have previously communicated that we're considering an accelerated phase-out of coal. This still applies. However, it is also important to clarify that the power plant remains in operation. The value adjustment is not related to an ongoing sales process or a decision to decommission the power plant. How does the gas project in Germany fit our strategy? Well, with its Solutions 2030 strategy, BKW also announced in 2024 that it intends to switch from coal-fired power plants to hydrogen-enabled gas power plants. This will significantly reduce CO2 emissions compared to today and enable BKW to meet its stated sustainability targets. As part of this transformation of our production portfolio, we're planning to build an H2-ready gas power plant in Germany. BKW and the municipal utility corporation Trianel have founded a joint project company.
This company is currently making all the necessary preparations to participate in a tender by the German government for hydrogen-capable power plants within the framework of the German Federal Law on Securing Supply Power and Modernization of Existing Power Plants. We're aiming for a 40% stake in this power plant. A decision on investment in the construction of an H2-ready gas power plant has not yet been made. This will only be possible within the framework of the aforementioned tender. In addition, they're planned in the medium term to operate these gas-fired power plants with renewable hydrogen, which will further reduce CO2 emissions. BKW is therefore sticking to its communicated sustainability targets. I would now like to hand over to CFO Martin Zwyssig, who will explain how the effects are likely to impact EBIT in 2025.
Good morning. Thank you. I'm happy to explain how we arrived at the revised EBIT guidance communicated today for 2025. The starting point for the guidance is, as always, the budget, which roughly aligns with the midpoint of the range that we communicated. It is at about CHF 700 million for 2025. Starting from there, 2025 faced us with negative quantity effects in hydropower and wind, which caused a negative deviation of approximately CHF 40 million. There were further influences which, however, offset each other. In addition, we recognized the value adjustment of roughly CHF 110 million for the Wilhelmshaven Coal Power Plant as a one-off effect. This leads to a revised midpoint guidance of CHF 550 million, and we can narrow the range to plus-minus CHF 10 million, which results in a revised EBIT guidance of CHF 540 million to CHF 560 million for the year 2025.
This means that BKW can expect a good operating result of CHF 650-670 million before the value adjustment for Wilhelmshaven, which is, in fact, in the range of the original guidance of CHF 650 and 750 million. The amount may still vary by a few million francs. We will not be able to communicate the final amount until the annual financial statements are issued. The value adjustment is done by increasing the existing provision for onerous contracts and will therefore have an impact on EBITDA. It will, however, not affect cash. The amount of the provision will be recognized as energy procurement costs. This means the value adjustment of Wilhelmshaven Power Plant is then recognized in full. The increase in the provision will contribute towards a reduction in future valuation risks. What is important for you?
An exchange rate loss from the valuation of the euro investment continues to be recognized in equity. Upon a disposal, this effect in the amount of, at present, approximately 120 million CHF would be recognized in profit and loss and thus negatively impact earnings. This is also called recycling of forex effects. It has no adverse effect on equity because it is already recognized there, and it doesn't adversely affect cash either. The final amount depends on the euro-Swiss franc exchange rate at the time of the transaction. We are happy to present the details of our financial results, as usual, at the annual conference on 11th March of 2026. I will now hand back to Robert for the outlook for the year ahead of us.
Thank you, Martin. In the ad hoc media release this morning, we also announced EBIT guidance for 2026 in the range of CHF 650 million-CHF 750 million. This is to give you an idea of how we assess the current year, and in order to shed light on that, some facts on the divisions. With Energy Solutions, the forward price volatility is lower than last year. Accordingly, we expect a decline in earnings from forward price trading in asset-backed trading. Spot price volatility, on the other hand, remains high, driven by the expansion of PV. Accordingly, we expect earnings from flexibility optimization and system services to remain high. For the production year 2026, we expect a return to the long-term average in terms of volume.
Power Grid, we do not expect the reduction in the regulated weighted average cost capital for the grids to have a negative effect in 2026 due to existing coverage differences. Minimum remuneration for solar power fed into the grid and the reduction in basic electricity tariffs will have a negative impact on earnings in 2026. Infrastructure and Buildings, we expect a slight improvement in the EBIT margin again in 2026. Summary, we therefore expect EBIT of between CHF 650 million to CHF 750 million for 2026, and I would now like to hand back to Martin.
Thank you, Robert. The starting point is, again, the budget for the guidance, and as mentioned, is at the mid of the range, and compared to 2025, there will be higher hedged prices, a normalization of quantity effects for hydropower and wind to the level of originally planned for 2025, as well as increased earnings from the Infrastructure and Buildings segment, and all this will contribute to an EBIT increase compared to 2025 of around 90 million CHF. On the other hand, we are anticipating a decline in results from trading to a lower forward price volatility in 2026. And this negative effect will be around 40 million CHF, together with a decrease in power tariffs in basic supply and the minimum remuneration for photovoltaic feed-in, and that amounts to 10 million CHF. And this leads us to an EBIT of some 700 million CHF.
And as usual, we apply a range of plus-minus CHF 50 million to the midpoint of the guidance to account for volatility. The EBIT guidance for 2026 thus comes to CHF 650 million-CHF 750 million, and it is at the same level as the original guidance for 2025. So much from us, and we are now happy to take your questions. We'll now start the question and answer session. If you want to ask a question, please press asterisk and one on your phone. You will then hear a signal which confirms that you are in the queue. If you want to withdraw your request for the floor, please press asterisk and two. Please use your handset to ask your questions. And can we kindly ask you to keep your questions concise? If you have a question, please press asterisk and one now.
The first question comes from Sonja Singh from AWP. Please, you have the floor.
Good morning. I have three questions, if I may. Are you looking into divesting the stake in Wilhelmshaven? Is it excluded that there are other impairments on that plant? And on Hamm, the following question. Could you repeat, perhaps, please, what you expect? When would you commission the plant in Hamm? Thank you.
First of all, whether we have to expect further value adjustments or not. Actually, this won't happen because the adjustment of CHF 110 million means that the power plant is fully written off. So regarding the divestment, at the moment, no divestment process or sale process is ongoing. And we said that the value adjustment is in no way linked to any intention to sell. However, in the framework of the Strategy Solutions 2030, we have been looking into a phase-out of coal-fired energy. And then the gas project. In the early 30s, this is a project that will come into operation. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Jürg Meier from NZZ. Please, you have the floor.
Good morning. I also have three questions, if I may. First, could you perhaps paint the larger picture? On the one hand, there's more volatility in the spot market. On the other hand, there's less production in coal power plants. How does that fit together, particularly also in times when there's little wind? Second question, where does the hydrogen come from? In Germany, there's a huge discussion on hydrogen because a lot of projects are not being realized. Where does the hydrogen come from, and when will you begin to see hydrogen? Third, there were discussions about gaps in the energy supply in Switzerland. Would that not be an issue that BKW should be doing more in terms of that?
Thank you for the questions. Larger picture volatility vis-à-vis production in the coal plant Wilhelmshaven. Well, adding more capacities was a thing.
We see volatility, obviously, in the daily changes, but a coal plant needs some time to get started. Hence, this is not the ideal technology to bring about short-term changes in the grid. There's no compensation effect there at short term. Hence, we are of the opinion that there are fewer operating hours in the coal plant Wilhelmshaven. Hydrogen, then. Well, yes, there's quite a discussion around H2. There initially was quite a hype two or three years ago on hydrogen, and now, in the meantime, it's become clear that this is not quite that easy. We'll have to see how fast the hydrogen market will develop in the market on hydrogen. We have a problem that there is no market. There are few people that would justify investments. There's little demand. Hence, there will need to be subsidies on the production of hydrogen.
This will happen sooner or later, as we see it. But, of course, I cannot tell you when, what quantities of hydrogen will be generated, and hence when we will be able to switch the gas plant to hydrogen. We still think that the fuel switch from gas to hydrogen in Germany makes a lot of sense. Gas-powered stations have about 40% of CO2 emissions of a coal plant. It's considerably less. Hence, it's a suitable technology for a transition when we need to compensate for these volatilities. Your last question, gaps in the supply that were commented by VSE. Of course, there are certain fears that we are too slow in Switzerland to take the measures that we all decided on. Part of that is the expansion of capacities in hydropower. Wind farms were initially also part of the plans that were communicated by the federal institutions.
I do share the concerns. I also think we need to move ahead to realize those projects in Switzerland, but I do not see an immediate risk of gaps in the supply currently unless things were to change dramatically.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Tommaso Oberto from UBS. Please.
Good morning. A follow-up question on the gas plant. Do you have an estimate around the installed capacities there? And you talked about the early 30s. This is not part of your midterm planning of 4.7 gigawatts installed capacities until 2030. Could you provide us with an update here? Is there potentially a shift of this goal given the fact that you will have to realize certain investments that have not been realized yet?
On the first issue here about capacities in Germany, the federal government talked about 20 gigawatts installed capacities in the first tender. It's going to be less, considerably less in a first step, of course. But those are the scales that are provided for by the government in Germany that it needs in order to make sure that there's stability in the German grid.
On the capacity of our project, we cannot say anything about that because we are involved in a competitive tender, and therefore, we would not like to make any communication on this.
The next question comes from Kerstin Schneider from Montel. You have the floor.
Good morning. I also have a question on the decline in annual production. You said that less will be produced in Wilhelmshaven. Could you quantify that, please?
Could you give us an order of scale, perhaps? We cannot say that exactly because that is not information we generally communicate. But what we can say is that numbers of operating hours already last year declined massively. So there's this trend. We certainly generated certain revenue because we hedged coal and were able to produce profit, but that's over. Hence, the power plant needs to produce black figure, and we see the greatly reduced operating hours.
Next question from Mario Graf from energate messenger Schweiz.
Good morning. I hope you can hear me. I also have three questions. First question about capacities of the gas power plant that is planned. You said you cannot put a figure to it. Could you at least give a scale of magnitude? Second question also around the planned gas power plant. Could you also hear talk about numbers? How much does BKW want to invest? Last question. In connection with the German strategy on power plants in Germany, more capacities are planned for in Germany. Is it possible that the two instruments in Germany will lead to a fact where BKW will invest also in other projects in Germany? Is that conceivable?
On the first question, the magnitude of scales of capacity. It's going to be a sizable power plant.
I can say so much that we don't want to talk in terms of gigawatts or megawatts in terms of capacities. On the magnitude of scale and investments, well, we're doing these calculations now, and we have values from existing gas plants. But obviously, we're in the midst of the process. Hence, we do not want to communicate any further details. On the market generally, on the markets around capacities, whether we will be further investing, we don't know yet. We'll see. In the strategy, we basically said that such participations are in the books to a certain extent. With the Hamm project, we see a good possibility to realize that. If that was not to work for any reason, of course, we'll be looking out for alternatives, but we need to take note of the fact that the interest in the tender is great in Germany.
So we're not the sole provider. Other organizations will also offer. And hence, projects where BKW will be able to participate are not numerous. But, of course, we want to implement our strategy, and hence, we'll also position ourselves.
We have an additional question from Jürg Meier from NZZ. Please, you have the floor.
Yes, it's me again. I'm going to reduce my number of questions to two. The investment in Wilhelmshaven used to be criticized. Would you regard it as a mistake? And then a second question on gas-fired power plants. There's a tender ongoing in Switzerland as well. Any comments on that? And what is the role of gas for the future in Switzerland? The question.
The first question was that it was a bad investment decision back then. It's difficult to assess today because this is a power plant we operated over a long period of time, and we earned good money with it in times of the energy crisis, particularly. So, as of today, we would no longer invest in coal. It's a basic principle because we want to stick to our sustainability goals. But I'd be cautious to say that this was a bad investment decision. Gas power in Switzerland is being discussed as reserve power plants. Operators would have to bring the investment, build the plant, and then be paid by the federal state for its operation according to the orders made on when production is to start.
This is a very different business case from the one in Germany where we have a tender where you commit to a price for the power plant, but then operate the plant under market conditions, which is much more interesting in terms of an investment than just have a reserve gas power plant that you keep in the portfolio somewhere. Can this change in Switzerland? That's a good question. Lots of discussions around that. What is going to be necessary in the long term? Do we need large power plants, and what sort of plans will we need? The discussion has been launched also with the Blackout Initiative. We'll see what the process will be and the consensus will be in Switzerland in the next years.
We're now going to take the last question from the German conference call. That's Armin Rechberger from Zurich Cantonal Bank.
Good morning. Can you hear me? Good morning, Martin.
Actually, this is a little bit new territory, these H2-ready gas power plants. I have a technical question. Are there gas turbines on the market available already, so standardized gas turbines that can process H2?
Yes, they do exist. And we work together with one of the largest gas turbine producers worldwide. It's a large German company, by the way. I'm not a gas turbine specialist, however, but it is true that there are very few changes that will have to be made on the turbine itself. Nothing on the turbine, actually. It's just the back system that feeds the gas into the turbine that will need to be refurbished to be operational for H2. Technically, it seems to be not a problem. The largest issue, however, is the production of H2. It's transport over longer distances. Those logistics will have to be built up for H2-enabled operation.
Now we're going to take a question from the English conference. And we have Laura Bucher from Octavian AG. Please, you have the floor.
Hi. Just two questions from my side. First, are there any other assets that currently where a similar reassessment of the energy market volatility and utilization could lead to further impairments? And then the second one on the 2025 EBIT. Is the delta between your expected number for 2025 on an adjusted basis and the mid-range of the guidance, which was CHF 700 million, is it due to even lower volatility versus previous expectations? And thus, we should assume that the EBIT in the other two divisions are within the guidance, or is there something one-off there as well?
Maybe the last question first. It was a pure quantity effect from the 700 million. It was mainly hydropower, but also wind. This has nothing to do with volatility, this deviation. And then your question regarding whether similar value adjustments might happen or whether they're being assessed. Now, my first comment is that all our assets are being subjected to the impairment test once a year. And no, we are not assuming that this magnitude of value adjustments would have to happen again. Maybe one additional comment. The value adjustments for 2025 are thus done. These are all the value adjustments that will be performed.
Next question from Emanuele Oggioni from Kepler.
Hi. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my question as well. If I understood well, you mentioned for a 2026 outlook, a CHF 50 million decline year-on-year from trading due to lower price volatility. So this is one of the negative moving parts year-on-year for 2026. Could you detail also the moving parts on regulated networks in 2026 and also onwards? Because you mentioned, so first of all, the year-on-year deviation 2026 compared to 2025. But also you mentioned in the press release that the profitability in regulated networks will be affected also not only in 2026, but also in the coming years. So if you provide also add more color on the coming years. Thank you.
The guidance is always for the following year. Just a small correction. You mentioned CHF 50 million in terms of volatility and price effects. It's CHF 40 million. Coming back to your question, the effect due to the reduction of power tariffs and the feed-in, the minimum remuneration for feed-in of photovoltaic effects, those two effects together for 2026 add up to CHF 10 million. The effect from WACC, from grid, so that's the basic supply. The regulatory effect from reducing the grid WACC in 2026 will not have an effect, although it is already effective because this goes at the expense of price differences. You have these coverage differences, recovery differences that you either build or consume, and the negative WACC effects will be consumed. That will have a negative effect in 2027. This will lead up to another probably CHF 10 million then for 2027, though.
And one additional comment, the WACC for the grid is being defined on a yearly basis for 2027. We have an internal evaluation of it, but the actual number will only be confirmed during 2026.
Then we'll take the last question from Rolf Renders from AMG Analysen & Anlagen AG.
Yes, good morning. Thank you for giving me the time. Can you please update your dividend policy or refresh it? Thanks.
I'm happy to do that. Our dividend policy has two effects. On the one hand, 35%-50% of the operating net profit. And the other component is the stable dividend policy that we aspire. So not a reduction of distributed dividends. So that's our dividend policy, which is in place. And it won't be influenced by this value adjustment. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. And I would like to hand back the floor to Robert Itschner for his concluding words.
Thank you again for participating also in the discussion. And thank you for your interest in BKW. Wish you all a great day. And I'm very much looking forward to seeing you again at our balance press meeting. Bye-bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this is the end of the conference call. We'd like to thank you for your attendance. Bye-bye.