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Earnings Call: Q3 2018

Oct 31, 2018

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Clariant nine-month 2018 figures conference call. I'm Sherry, the conference call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Mrs. Anja Pomrehn, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.

Anja Pomrehn
Head of Investor Relations, Clariant

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. My name is Anja Pomrehn, and it's my pleasure to welcome you to Clariant's nine-months and third-quarter 2018 results conference call and live webcast. Joining me today is Patrick Jany, the CEO of Clariant. The slides for today's presentation can be found on our website along with the media release. I would like to remind the participants that the presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Listeners and readers are therefore strongly encouraged to refer to the disclaimer on slide two of our presentation. The replay of this call will be available on the Clariant website for around 30 days. With that, I would like to hand over to Patrick to take us through the presentation.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

Thank you, Anja. Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. Let us begin with the highlights. As you can see on slide four, in the first nine months of this year, Clariant progressed again in sales and EBITDA before exceptional items. Sales rose by 6% in both local currency and CHF to around CHF 5 billion. EBITDA before exceptional items increased significantly by 7% in CHF to CHF 765 million, driven by the positive development in Care Chemicals and Plastics & Coatings. The corresponding EBITDA margin remained robust at 15.3%. Slide five shows that in the first nine months of 2018, organic sales rose by 6% in local currency, with good growth across all business areas. Sales were driven by 3% volume growth and by 3% price increase. This resulted in sales of some CHF 5 billion for the group.

In terms of regions, sales growth was most pronounced in Latin America and Asia. Sales in Latin America increased by 13% in local currency, in Asia by 9%, mainly driven by China and India. Sales in North America grew by 6%, despite a strong expansion during the same time period in 2017. In Europe, sales advanced by a solid 4%, whereof Germany grew only by 1%, Eastern Europe by 10%, and France by 2%. Only the Middle East and Africa, the group's smallest geographic region, reported a slight sales increase of 3%. Looking at the figures in the individual business areas, starting with Care Chemicals on slide six. Care Chemicals reported a remarkable sales growth of 9% in local currency.

Both Consumer Care and Industrial Applications delivered solid growth, which was partly supported by a strong aviation business in the first quarter of this year, as well as by an excellent development in all Consumer Care segments during the first nine months. From a geographic perspective, most regions contributed to the notable sales expansion. Asia as well as North America grew with double-digit growth rates, while Latin America and Europe grew in the single-digit range. The EBITDA margin before exceptional items in Care Chemicals increased to 19.4% from 18.1% a year ago, primarily as a result of an improved product mix. Sales in Catalysis rose by 12% in local currency. The organic sales growth of 8%, excluding the effect of the full consolidation of our joint venture in India, was primarily attributable to syngas, but also due to specialty catalysts.

All regions except North America added to the robust sales momentum, especially Asia advanced strongly as a result of the good demand in China. The EBITDA margin before exceptional items, however, decreased to 20.6% from 24.6% in the previous year. The decline was attributable to the change in product mix with a higher proportion of syngas throughout the first nine months, as we have already indicated earlier this year. Continuing with Natural Resources on slide seven. Natural Resources sales grew by 7% in local currency. Sales in the Oil and Mining Services business exhibited double-digit sales growth, bolstered by a continuing demand improvement in the industry. Though all three business lines contributed to the growth, this increase was mainly driven by oil services and refinery. Sales in Functional Minerals grew in the low single-digit range in local currency.

The growth in the foundry business compensated the temporary softness in the edible oil business. As you know, the purification business for edible oils is subject to the quality of the respective crops, which are dependent on the weather conditions. The EBITDA margin before exceptional items declined to 12.8%, largely as a result of the persisting price consciousness of the oil market, as well as a lower contribution from the Functional Minerals purification business in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2017, when high demand levels were lifted by the pure quality of the harvested crops. In Plastics & Coatings, sales increased by 3% in local currency in the first nine months of the year. All three business units contributed to the sales advancement. Growth in Masterbatches & Pigments was supported by Latin America, as well as the continued expansion in Greater China.

The higher sales in Additives were mainly driven by strong growth in North America, Europe, and Asia. The EBITDA, before exceptional items, rose by 8% to CHF 341 million. This favorable progression was mainly attributable to pricing measures, as well as increased volumes. Slide eight provides a summary of the figures of the first nine months we just discussed. Let us now move on to the Q3 figures on slide 10. In the first quarter, sales rose to around CHF 1.6 billion, up 5% in local currency and 2% in CHF. Care Chemicals and Natural Resources contributed most to this advancement. EBITDA before exceptional items increased by 3% to CHF 241 million, primarily due to the strong contribution from Care Chemicals and Plastics & Coatings. The corresponding EBITDA margin before exceptional items remained at a solid 15%.

On slide 11, we can see in more detail the composition of the growth in the third quarter. Organic sales grew by 5% in local currency, driven by 1% volume growth and 4% price increases. Sales growth in Swiss francs was 2% due to adverse currency impacts of 3% in this quarter. This resulted in total sales of approximately CHF 1.6 billion in the third quarter. On a regional level, most geographic regions added to the growth. Latin America progressed by 14%, while North America and Europe both grew sales by 5%. Sales in Asia improved only 3% in local currency year-on-year. Though China softened in the third quarter of the current year, it continued to develop well against a strong comparable base year-on-year. Again, only the smallest region, Middle East and Africa, reported a minor sales contraction of 1%.

For the next few minutes, I will focus on the developments of the business areas in the third quarter. Therefore, let us move to slide 12. Sales in Care Chemicals increased by 8% in local currency. The strong development was mainly driven by double-digit growth in Consumer Care, but was also supported by Industrial Applications. On a regional level, sales rose in almost all regions with double-digit expansion in Asia as well as in North America and mid-single digit growth in Latin America and Europe. EBITDA margin before exceptional items increased to a record high of 21.6%, from 19.4%, largely because of operational leverage and a more favorable product mix. Sales in Catalysis decreased by 4% in local currency. This was realized against the backdrop of a stronger prior year, as well as forward sales shift to the second quarter of the current year.

A positive sales development was again achieved in Syngas. The EBITDA margin in Catalysis decreased to 18.1% from 26% due to a product mix effect with a proportionally much higher sales growth contribution from Syngas when compared to the same time period last year. In the business line, Biofuels & Derivatives, Clariant had the groundbreaking event for the construction of the large-scale commercial sunliquid plant for the production of cellulosic ethanol made from agricultural residues in Romania in September of this year. This plant will testify to the competitive viability and sustainability of the sunliquid technology on an industrial scale. At the same time, it will be a reference facility for the worldwide marketing of sunliquid licenses. By 2021, we expect sunliquid sales of CHF 100 million, of which license sales and sales from bioethanol will each amount to approximately CHF 50 million.

Moving on to Natural Resources on slide 13. In the third quarter, sales in Natural Resources advanced by 14% in local currency. This growth was supported by a demand increase in the Oil and Mining Services, as well as by solid growth in Functional Minerals. The double-digit sales growth in the Oil and Mining Services business reflected the improving demand in the oil market. Both mining and refinery sales grew in the high single-digit range despite the continued curtailed demand resulting from a customer's facility failure in mining. The sales progression from minerals exhibited an increased single-digit growth in local currency. Both the foundry as well as the purification business contributed to this positive development. The price consciousness of the oil market has not yet abated and is reflected in the comparable EBITDA margin before exceptional items of 13.2% versus the prior year.

Quarter-on-quarter, this represents a 320 basis point improvement to the EBITDA margin. Sales growth in Plastics & Coatings advanced by 2% in local currency in the third quarter against a strong comparable base. Growth was more pronounced in Pigments and Additives than in Masterbatches. The pricing efforts in all three business units mainly supported this positive sales development. The EBITDA before exceptional items increased by a significant 11% to CHF 105 million, despite a strong comparable base. Slide 14 provides a summary of the just discussed third quarter of 2018. I now come to the economic outlook for 2018 on slide 16. For 2018, Clariant expects the economic environment in mature markets, which represent a high comparable base, to remain solid, albeit to grow at a slower pace, while we expect emerging markets to remain broadly supportive.

As to our outlook for the current year, please move to slide 17. For the full year 2018, we will continue to focus on growing our businesses by means of innovation, seizing growth opportunities, and cost efficiency. We are confident to be able to achieve growth in local currencies as well as progression in our operating cash flow, absolute EBITDA, and EBITDA margin before exceptional items. Going forward, as announced in September, Clariant expects to improve its performance as a result of further operational progression and the accelerated reshaping of its portfolio through the divestment of Pigments, standard Masterbatches, and Medical Specialties, as well as the creation of the new business area, High Performance Materials. I thank you for your attention and turn the call back to Anja.

Anja Pomrehn
Head of Investor Relations, Clariant

Thank you, Patrick, for walking us through the details of the first nine months and the third quarter of this year. We will open the line for questions now.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star 1 on their touch-tone telephone. You'll hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star 2. Participants are requested to use only hands that when asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star 1 at this time. The first question is from Christian Faitz, Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Christian Faitz
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes. Good afternoon, Anja. Good afternoon, Patrick. Two questions for me. First of all, yes, obviously you saw an adverse mix effect in Catalysis and energy. You mentioned this is due to higher sales in Syngas. Yet, also your absolute development of EBITDA was on a relatively low level, which would suggest that you lost some customers in the higher margin segments of your business. Can you elucidate this a bit? Second of all, can you talk a bit about the current demand situation in China? Your organic sales, they were still a healthy 9% plus current market environment, at least in the financial market, would suggest China's falling off a cliff. What, from your point of view, is going on in China at this point in time in terms of demand for your products? Thank you.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

Thank you, Christian. Coming back to your first question on the mix in Catalysis. What we have seen in Q3 in terms of sales is the forecasted evolution of the sales growth we have guided for. Just to go on sales, we have guided for the sales growth pretty much in line with our guidance of 6%-7%, maybe a notch above, and therefore, having 21% average. After 6 months, we had to come down a bit to go to the 6%-7% on a yearly basis. That happened in Q3, mainly due to lower sales in petrochemicals, which typically are more Q4 oriented than Q3. Q3 was really very much focused on Syngas, and that really reflects the product mix. I would not say that we have lost any customers on the high end.

You know that typically the sales we have in Catalysis are very much or refill orders or contracts on a newly built base. We have good win rates of new contracts, I would not expect us to lose market share on those elements. It's really just a mix. As you know as well, obviously a bit of idle facilities from our polypropylene plant, which still is running. On the second aspect on the current demand in China, we do show a healthy growth of 9% in Q3 when you absolutely divide it. It's actually pretty much the growth rate we would expect China to have. The growth we had at the beginning of the year and until mid-year was very much pushed by the Syngas sales precisely we just talked about. In Catalysis.

This big order backlog, which had been accumulated, you may recall, 2016, has been delivered, therefore we are receding to a normal level of growth in China. No more affected, I would say, or boosted by extra phase of the Catalysis. From an actual on-the-ground business distribution growth, we see a fairly stable development in China. Consumer markets like end markets for Consumer Care, for instance, or Care Chemicals, are still strong. You might have some slow demand in construction, automotive sector is still strong. It's maybe a little bit more patchy than it used to be, but still on a good level. We don't see it falling off the cliff, to take your words as such. We do a softening of demand.

Generally speaking, I would say that we have not seen the usual rebound in September as you normally see after the August holidays. That typically indicates, based on previous year, that we do have a softening in the economy happening, particularly in some geographies.

Christian Faitz
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. If I may, just ask that add-on question. Has that softer demand continued also into October in your observation? Then I'm done.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

As you know, we don't guide on the current quarter, I would not say that we have seen any specific development which would speak for worsening of the demand trend up to now, therefore we can confirm our guidance for the full year.

Christian Faitz
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay, great. Thank you, Patrick.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

You're welcome.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Patrick Lambert, Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Patrick Lambert
Analyst, Raymond James

Hi, good afternoon, Patrick and Anja. I have two main questions. The first one regards pricing at +4%. If you could give us a bit more breakdown by divisional splits, especially on oil and gas, where the growth was pretty spectacular. How much was pricing especially on the Aero services business? Question number one. Question number two, again, on Catalysis. Is there anything to flag for Q4 in terms of margins development? We know it's a very strong quarter, typically Q4. Is there any mix? Are you worried about the mix still lagging a bit, Q4 versus Q4 2017? Nothing special to mention there?

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

Looking at the price increase, we've had a very good quarter in terms of price increase. You've seen that the price increase of group that have been ramping up during the year. We were at 3%+ in Q2. We had 4% in Q3. I think we are definitely, this year, able to offset the raw material cost increase by having a good pace on price increases across the board in all businesses. As you might remember, last year, we had some difficulties in a couple of businesses. This year we are pretty much on track, and which is the good news looking forward in terms of gross margin. To your specific question in terms of oil, yes, we have increased prices in some area of oil.

However, you know that the main element there is more the contracts that we have. Therefore we are still in a phase of having to serve contracts which were done at a time where profitability levels in the industry were low. We need to service those contracts and replace them with new ones. The new contracts are absolutely okay in terms of margin, which is why I would say pricing dynamics are finally sound. They need to continue to be able to offset the raw material cost increase, at least we have a good base and also in Oil.

In terms of Catalysis guidance for Q4, I think we can reiterate our guidance, that we will probably in sales goals be very much in line with the 6%-10% typical growth we guide for, maybe a notch above, depending on the last couple of weeks in December. As you know, the catalyst is always a bit lumpy. In terms of profitability, given the fact that now we have a strong Syngas mix during the year, we probably not be at the high end of the EBITDA range we guide for, but probably more at the low end of the range. That is typically, given the product mix this year, a year where we do have good growth. The profitability, given the mix, is not the highest that it can be.

As you know, if you took our guidance for 2020, 2021, we have in the order books an improved mix going on. Therefore you'll see just by mix effect an improved profitability in the years to come as well when you consider 2018 as a base.

Patrick Lambert
Analyst, Raymond James

Just a quick follow. The Oil and the Natural Resources price increases are above the group level or at par?

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

Well, I would say in terms of price increases, we are pretty much online. You probably see a more dynamic evolution in oil because there is a certain dynamic there. Functional Minerals typically is a more stable market.

Patrick Lambert
Analyst, Raymond James

Perfect.

Thanks, Patrick.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

Thank you.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Patrick Rafaisz, UBS. Please go ahead.

Patrick Rafaisz
Analyst, UBS

Thank you, and good afternoon. Can I follow up on Catalysis? Can you maybe add

Some color on because the sheer size of the margin decline quarter-on-quarter seemed quite high given that overall sales were still pretty solid, and we've already had this adverse mix in the first half of the year, right? The decline in margins wasn't that pronounced. Secondly, can you quickly comment on corporate costs? The CHF 29 million, is that related also to one-off charges or unusual charges due to the SABIC deal? Would you assume that we remain at this run rate until the transaction is closed? Lastly, can you talk a bit more about the mix effect in Care Chemicals and how you expect that to develop into Q4 and into 2019? Thanks.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

Thanks, Patrick, for your questions. Taking them by their order. In Catalysis, I wouldn't be too concerned by the absolute evolution of the EBITDA. It is at the end of quarter with an 18% margin, which is below the 26%, was exceptionally high last year. You may remember last year we had a strong rebound in demand after having one and a half years of crisis in 2016 and early part of 2017. We started to see some demand in the second quarter and then a really strong demand, mainly driven by petrochemicals in Q3 2017. I'm just saying that the comparable base is actually quite high. If you look back for a few years, if you are really focused on Q3, you will see that three, four years ago, we had basically 18%-19% EBITDA margin in, I think, 2014 or something.

It's 18%-22% margin range for Q3 is not unusual. Last year was just a high comparable base. As you know, the business is lumpy. It's a business which is done particularly by the Q4, right? That is really what drives the whole year. The mix this year is what it is. It is not particularly good. We do have some idle costs of the new propylene plant both ways in the results. I think that typically you need a Q4, which has much higher sales volumes to then lift the margin up. That's what we would guide for within the guidance I gave already to Patrick before, meaning that for the full year, we expect the sales growth in the range of our guidance to be a notch up and in terms of profitability, rather towards the end of the margin range.

There's not too much more you can do when you have so much Syngas in the sales mix. Looking at corporate costs, we have had a bit of high corporate costs now in Q3. These are all also temporary charges, which typically at the end, will probably by the end of the year, end up in some business units for some projects. I wouldn't be too concerned about that on a yearly view. I think you know that we have had CHF 109 million last year. We have guided for a lower number in 2018, as we have some costs of bioethanol, which are now borne by the business, which is reported on the Catalysis. We'll be well below the previous year number by year end.

There is no specific, I would say, project cost now what you were saying, referring to the project of High Performance Materials with SABIC.

This is a bit of volatility in the numbers on a quarterly basis. On a yearly basis, I don't see a reason for variation. If you look at the mix in Care Chemicals, well, indeed, it was actually pretty good quarter in Care Chemicals, I must say. We had a very nice mix, with a strong growth in Personal Care and Home Care. A rather weaker Crop Solutions quarter. It's not the best quarter for crop. Nevertheless, the whole Consumer Care, high-value part had a very nice development, which was above the growth of the Care Chemicals business. Above the 8% we reported with double digits in Q3, and that lifted the margin up as well. Now looking at your second part of the question on is it something to be guided for in Q4 next year?

I would say, well, you know that in 2017, we had a bit of a lower margin because we had capacities. We filled them up to avoid idle facilities with products at the lower end of the margin. We're now replacing those products with higher-end products. Actually, the products the plants were made for. This is a continuous progress, and therefore, I would expect profitability in Care Chemicals to remain solid as we continue to improve in the mix.

Patrick Rafaisz
Analyst, UBS

Very helpful. Thank you.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

You're welcome.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of [audio distortion] , Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hello. Hi, Patrick. Thank you for taking my question. My first was actually in Natural Resources where you had very strong growth in the third quarter. I was just wondering if you could give some color as to whether within oil services, how much of that was actually driven by U.S. onshore compared to some of the offshore regions like Brazil, where we know that you've got quite a good attractive position there, and it seems that production is ramping up there. The second question is on the profitability improvement in Natural Resources. How much of that have you actually seen new contracts that you have negotiated kind of coming through in the third quarter? My last question is actually on Catalysis. I just wanted to confirm the 24%-26% margin guidance, which you have reaffirmed towards the bottom end for the full year.

Does that include some of the corporate costs that you have transferred in that division earlier this year? Thanks.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

All right. If you look at Natural Resources from the growth point of view, we are online with the guidance we gave at mid-year that you will see a good growth in the second half. I think Q3 already shows that. You'll continue to see a good growth in Q4 for that business as we have gained new contracts and in principle, there is a recovery of the market there, which is very similar to what you can see from our peers, I believe. Overall, the market is progressing in terms of sales, particularly driven in terms of geographies by the U.S., which is mainly shale-driven. Also, in our case, through new contracts we secured in Mexico for that matter, not so much through our traditional position in Brazil, which remains rather sluggish. For now, we haven't seen too much of an uptake increase in Brazil.

Very skewed towards U.S. If you look at profitability, we are still in the phase where we do not have a good profitability and not satisfactory profitability in our oil business. As you know, we are signing nice contracts, you will see a progressive improvement of the margin as we go into 2019. We also have to tackle a bit our costs in the U.S. as we were left after the integration of the two business we bought with still too high a cost structure, which we are addressing.

From that point of view, there's a bit of work both on the cost side and on the new contract side to do until we see a significant sustainable improvement in the profitability in oil, which is why we just confirm our guidance of saying that while you see in the second half of 2018 a good sales growth for Natural Resources, the profitability improvement will take more time. It's probably more 2019 than 2018. Coming to Catalysis in terms of profitability. I think there would not be too much more to do this year than targeting the low end of the margin given the mix. We have not transferred corporate costs. We have actually transferred costs of the buyers in the activity as we establish it on its own feet, so to say, within Catalysis, a separate business line. That indeed includes those costs.

Speaker 12

Okay, great. Thanks, Patrick.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

Okay. You're welcome.

Operator

Next question is from Andreas Heine, MainFirst. Please go ahead.

Andreas Heine
Analyst, MainFirst

Yes, thanks. Thank you for my question. Basically, I have only one left, that is going to the group split between volume and price, which I do not really get together with what the trends in the segments are. On volume level, you have 1% increase, price four. Looking on what you have said on the strong sales growth in Natural Resources, good growth in Care Chemicals, a little bit down in Catalysis, but the local currency decline in Catalysis is probably partly also to the mix effect versus the price component. You could help a little bit why the volume growth with all your positive comments is just 1% in this particular quarter?

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

We've seen certainly a decrease in the growth rate, right? Typically coming, even if you take Care Chemicals with a good business evolution to start them in their order, I think we certainly have seen a good price dynamic in Care Chemicals as well, which extends to both sides of the portfolio, both in industrial care and in Consumer Care. From that point of view, our good sales development comes from, I would say, both price and volumes. Solid evolution, and above, let's say, our 1% volume growth that we report on a corporate level. On Catalysis, we have certainly seen a volume reduction as well, clearly. I mean, we reduced in terms of sales in the quarter.

We have not given up too much on pricing, it is really more a volume reduction there because we had also, as you may remember, in Q2, some sales being shifted into Q2 from Q3 was a bit artificially low. That is fine. Q2 was a little bit high. It's part of this normal game, quarter-on-quarter lumpiness in Catalysis. In terms of Natural Resources, we certainly have an improved pricing dynamic and some volume. The figure we report, 14% growth covers, I would say, both the volume and the price increase. To come to the last one, it is certainly in Plastics & Coatings where we have much more pricing than we have volumes.

I would say, as we were hinting before, I think to another question, we are certainly seeing after the holiday period in August, not too much of a rebound, which particularly is more pronounced in Masterbatches and in Pigments, which do have a good pricing effort but have not seen a rebound in volume in the last couple of months of Q3. Which goes in line on the comments on the economic environment we were discussing.

Andreas Heine
Analyst, MainFirst

Absolutely. Is it unfair to assume that Plastics & Coatings was volume-wise down this quarter with a weaker September, which usually is the strongest month?

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

I wouldn't deny.

Andreas Heine
Analyst, MainFirst

The last point, only for clarification. If you have more syngas sales, which has a negative margin effect, is this something what is a mix effect you would put into this price component, or is that just everything like this in the volume?

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

No, the difference in mix would be reflected in the price deviation that we have.

Andreas Heine
Analyst, MainFirst

These minus 4% is both just the mix, where you have something negative on this product mix to syngas, whereas the prices of the individual products were absolutely flat, and a part is then the volume component from the very high base of the year before.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

Absolutely.

Andreas Heine
Analyst, MainFirst

Okay, thanks a lot.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

You're welcome.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Markus Mayer, Baader Helvea. Please go ahead.

Markus Mayer
Analyst, Baader Helvea

Good afternoon. Anya and Patrick. I have three questions, if I may. Coming back to Catalysis, can you give us an update on the development of your order backlog for first fill and refill business? Again, on Catalysis, you had this large Syngas startup in China and also the start of the construction of sunliquid plants. Have you had a significantly higher one-off cost due to these two large events? Lastly, the CEO of SABIC spoke on a conference in Vienna beginning of October. He stated that he sees additional synergies between Clariant and SABIC, which might be announced in the first quarter of next year. Is this also something you would underline? Thank you so much.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

All right. Taking the questions in order, Markus. Yeah. From the catalyst order backlog, I think we are confident to see good growth in 2019 and forward. I think when we came out a month ago for our 2021 guidance, we guided on good business development for catalysts. Currently, we see quite a good entry both in refill and in new orders. New build on the 2021, 2022 horizon looks interesting. From that point of view, I think we will see an improvement in the mix over the coming years with a good level of activity also in new build. It looks absolutely in line with our guidance of a month ago. As far as Syngas and sunliquid costs are concerned, I think the sunliquid per se has ongoing costs.

They're not a one-off, but it's basically a pilot plant and the activities to market the licenses, which are in the P&L with not too much sales. It always depends whether you sell a license or not. We sold a license back in Q4 2017. We haven't sold a license in 2018. We have some ongoing projects where typically the multiple clients, which have leads, also reimburse some costs, but it's obviously not in the same proportion as the cost we have. We have a slight negative impact right now on the P&L, given the sunliquid running costs. I wouldn't call them one-off. It's just that we have created a business line, which, as we don't have a plant running right now, totally relies on the sale of licenses, which is obviously a single event. It's a binary event.

The ongoing project costs and reimbursement are very, very small, don't cover the cost of that activity. I would expect for the year to have indeed a bit of a negative dilution effect coming from the sunliquid activity unless we sign a license until year-end. It still, I would say, a business which will be a bit lumpy in its earnings until we have a base load of a new plant in 2020, which then covers all those costs and generates a base profitability. Like in any new business. Third, to your comment on SABIC mentioning additional synergies, I think we're certainly working on a lot of commercial additional ideas, as we have mentioned a month ago, whether it's in catalysts, whether it's in ethylene oxide. We do have some projects there. I would not comment on timing.

I think we will come out as soon as we have something which makes sense to talk about.

Markus Mayer
Analyst, Baader Helvea

Okay. Thank you.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

Yeah.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Daniel Buchta from Vontobel. Please go ahead.

Daniel Buchta
Analyst, Vontobel

Yeah. Thank you very much for taking my three questions. The first one on Natural Resources. If I remember correctly, in Q3 last year, you had some one-off headwinds from Hurricane Harvey. With that, I would say this quarter this year was running against a relatively low comparison base. Could you just share some light, if you would exclude these one-off effects from last year, how the margins would have progressed, and whether there would be already an improvement compared to what we have seen in Q2, where the margin was down 270 basis points? Would it be already better now on a fair comparison base, so to say, and for Natural Resources? The second one on Care Chemicals. Quickly come back again on this very nice margin progression.

Is there something going forward that would make you a bit more cautious that also in the next quarters and in 2019, we can expect a margin improvement also close to that magnitude we have seen in Q3 now? The third one quickly on Functional Minerals, and you were mentioning already before that the first half was seeing a rather difficult period because of a good harvesting quality. Do you have already insights how that is going to develop now in the second half? Any indications on how the weather was already in the past and what that means for crop quality and everything, just to check how the Functional Minerals business is probably going to develop in the second half now. Thank you very much.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

All right, thanks for your questions. Going to Natural Resources on Q3, you are certainly right. You forget those hurricanes coming through one year after the other. We actually had a negative effect this year, as well, in Catalysts as well, with delayed deliveries and so on. We didn't mention it, there is certainly anything there as well. In Natural Resources, they always tend to go through Houston or this area, you always get a bit of disruption.

Daniel Buchta
Analyst, Vontobel

Yeah.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

I wouldn't overemphasize here the improvement year-over-year. We are not happy about the profitability of Natural Resources. We have been very, I would say, blunt about it. We need to do some work there. We need to service the contracts we have signed, we need to secure new contracts with higher profitability, and we need to reduce the cost base. I think those are the two main drivers. I would really, yeah, not be too detailed on finding excuses on the run rate. I think we have a good business plan. We have a good market position. We are gaining market share, we need to get this profitability up, and as we decided, it is more 2019 event than 2018 event.

Daniel Buchta
Analyst, Vontobel

Yeah.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

Looking at Care Chemicals. Yeah, great margin. It's always difficult when you are at this level to maintain that level.

Daniel Buchta
Analyst, Vontobel

Okay.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

From that point of view. It works very well. I think we are progressing at giving regions. We have a great growth in Personal Care. Actually, historically we have a 7% growth over the last, now probably five years. This year will probably be higher. The Q3 was really good in Personal Care. It's a bit low on crop. It wasn't the best quarter, as I mentioned before.

Overall, I think we will progress in the quality of the business, in 2018, which is in line with the long-term evolution of that business. We have guided for 2021 targets, which forecast further improvement in margin after exceptionals. They are in line to progress. There will always be a bit of a Q4-Q1 debate about Aviation business, right?

Daniel Buchta
Analyst, Vontobel

Yeah.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

If you take that one out, I think we have a good progression year on year. We need it to reach our guidance in 2021, but it looks rather solid from today's point of view. If we look at Functional Minerals. We had a bit of a slower demand in the first half, beginning of the year because of too good a crop quality. I haven't really a final view now from the business on the current year, but it looks that it is more of a normal year, which means that we should have a more normal business development for Functional Minerals in the coming quarters ahead.

Daniel Buchta
Analyst, Vontobel

Okay, great. Thank you much. That's very helpful.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

You're welcome.

Operator

Next question is from Charlie Webb, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Charlie Webb
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi, Patrick. Just a few from me around cash flow. I know you don't report cash flow for Q3, but perhaps you could give us a little update as we think about the end of the year. Perhaps things around, where are you in relation to CapEx? Remind us of what you're suggesting or guiding for full year. Likewise, working capital, and then maybe just touching on cash exceptionals, where you expect that to come out now for the end of the year. That would be helpful.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

I can only confirm that we do not guide on or report on cash in Q3. To your point, I think an interesting point to mention, nevertheless, I think the CapEx we have guided on the figure below CHF 300 million. You know that we typically are around CHF 300 million for the year. That's our existing guidance on a normal year, pushing higher when we have big projects. We have just started now one big project, which is the sunliquid plant. We're also doubling our capacity in Licocene wax, which is the project that announced a month back. We'll start to ramp up in big projects looking at 2019. For 2018, I think we're totally in line with the guidance. We are obviously always cost and cash conscious.

I would really not expect us to be above the guidance, but rather, if at all, a bit lower. It will depend on those big projects, but it's fully under control. In terms of working capital, we did have a bad year-end last year, at above 20% in working capital. I would not expect this to be repeated. As you know, we have been working very strongly with a couple of views which had some issues by end of last year. I think they're working on it, the last few weeks are always decisive, but I think we do have this under better control than last year. One element on the exceptional cash items, which is already in our actions by half year, we do have this CHF 84 million tax payment, which is already in the books by June.

Just don't forget this one when you will make your own cash extrapolations for year-end.

Charlie Webb
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

If we were to exclude that tax exceptional that you flagged already, where roughly do you think cash exceptionals will be this year? You've talked of to get below the 1% of sales. Are you on track for that?

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

I think I refrain from commenting on that one.

Charlie Webb
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

Just because.

Charlie Webb
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Just one moment on the working capital, given obviously the growth we're seeing in certain parts of the business, and how weak it was at the end of last year. Is the suggestion that we would see inflows this year on a year-on-year comparison at the end of the year? Is that the expectation, or do you think, given the growth, it'll just be a smaller outflow would be the right kind of expectation?

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

I was more guiding on the percentage of sales, right? The net working capital.

Charlie Webb
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Fine.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

In terms of the absolute numbers.

Charlie Webb
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Understood.

Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Chetan Udeshi, JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

David Symonds
Analyst, JPMorgan

Hi, it's David Symonds from JPMorgan. We've seen towards the end of Q3 some oil services companies talking about slowing activity, particularly in the Permian and bottleneck. I was just curious to see if you've had any sign of that.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

Yeah, sure. I think indeed we have seen actually a good growth in, as you were mentioning before, in Q3, in the whole U.S. oil and particularly in the shale business, which ultimately comes back to the Permian being the biggest region. We are aware of limitations, which are mainly, I believe, pipeline limitations. They have not really affected our business. They're probably more affecting the drilling part of it, because, well, it just doesn't make too much sense to drill anymore when you cannot actually get the oil out of the Permian Basin. As far as we are concerned, we have a solid activity there. As we said, we have the profitability topic we talked about in previous questions and which is obvious in our results. I would say from the level of activity, we look forward to a good growth as well in Q4.

David Symonds
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. Thank you.

Patrick Jany
CFO, Clariant

You're welcome.

Operator

There are no more questions at this time.

Anja Pomrehn
Head of Investor Relations, Clariant

Excellent. Okay. Ladies and gentlemen, this then concludes today's conference call. The investor relations team of Clariant is, of course, still available should you have any additional questions. Once again, thank you for joining the call. Have a good day, and bye-bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.