Galenica AG (SWX:GALE)
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Earnings Call: H2 2021

Mar 7, 2022

Operator

Marc Werner, CEO of the Galenica Group, and Felix Burkhard, CFO of the Galenica Group. I pass the floor to Marc Werner now.

Marc Werner
CEO, Galenica Group

Very good, ladies and gentlemen, I would like to welcome you to our media and analyst conference here. I also welcome you to our digital conference online to today's meeting. I am really happy to be able to have an on-site physical meeting. I talked things over over coffee, and we mentioned that very often we haven't seen each other, never or only with a mask, with a face mask and/or online. We are so happy that we are able to talk to each other without a vaccination passport so that we really are having a physical meeting for once. I should also like to now start this conference by mentioning a topic that is not really very optimistic.

We are all stunned and terrified by the current war in Ukraine. We follow the daily dreadful news powerlessly. The whole world is helpless in the face of these events. Galenica is trying to help as much as it can within its own means, and we want to do so quickly and in a targeted fashion on the ground. Together with the suppliers and other partners and in contact with the Swiss authorities and the Ukrainian Embassy, we have started last week to deliver medical supplies directly to Ukraine ourselves. We have received a list from the embassy of what is most urgently needed, such as bandages, disinfectants and medicines. Last Saturday at 3:00 P.M., the first truck from Planzer with 27 pallets of material left, needed for Lviv, and I'm not sure that my pronunciation is perfect.

It arrived yesterday afternoon, was able to provide the relief supplies and will now return to Switzerland over Poland. We hope that they'll be back in Switzerland today or tomorrow. The relief supplies will be continued to be transported by the Ukrainian authorities as needed. With the first truck, our support is not finished. At this stage, we are preparing further transports, especially to help the Ukrainian hospitals in particular. We've also encouraged our employees to donate to Swiss Solidarity. To date, more than CHF 70,000 have been collected in this way, and we as Galenica Group will match the entire amount donated by our employees so that each individual donation will be doubled.

It is not so easy for me to come to today's real topic of our conference today, but that's why we've come here and taken the time today. In the next 50 minutes, Felix Burkhard and I will present the most important events from 2021 and give you an outlook. After that, we will be available here in this room and to answer also your questions online for a Q&A session. It's a very special moment for a CEO when he can summarize the annual review with the word record result. I have great respect for this achievement by the Galenica team 2021. The strong growth comes on the one hand from the extraordinary additional sales in connection with COVID-19, and these activities demanded once again in the second pandemic year an extraordinary commitment from all our employees.

At the same time, in our traditional business, we continued to grow, and we were again able to gain market share. Finally, we also continued to expand market share with new pharmacies, products, acquisitions and partnerships. In 2021, we have made further progress in our digitization initiatives with the launch of pilot projects for electronic prescriptions or the expansion of applications on the doctors and pharmacy software, Documedis. These are initiatives that bring added value to all those involved in the healthcare system, and our own online offerings have also grown. Customers can order prescription medicines online from all our pharmacy formats. They can also now make their appointments online, for example, for vaccinations. These online options also bring more traffic to the web shops, whose sales increased by 50% in 2021.

The various COVID initiatives, such as vaccination and testing, have further strengthened the positioning of the pharmacy as the first point of contact for health issues. During the pandemic, we were able to prove how well pharmacies can relieve how their burdened service providers such as doctors, hospitals or vaccination centers. The strong growth in MediService sales and the high demand for Bichsel's services encourage us in our strategy of being a strong partner, both for patients at home and for their caregivers, such as those in homes or from home care organizations, which was reinforced again with the acquisition of Lifestage Solutions. Last but not least, we also invested a lot in sustainability issues in 2021, and we will come back to this item later. Let's start with omni-channel.

We want to offer the customers the best shopping experience, B2C and B2B, anytime, anywhere, online, offline, in the offer and with services. Our vision is to be the leader in the field of digital health services and the networking of on and offline offers. An important element for this are digital platforms that we either develop ourselves or in which we participate as partners. The aim of these platforms is to make it easier for customers to access the services and products of the Galenica Group and to network the various stakeholders in the healthcare sector. In 2021, we worked intensively on our vision of a digital customer dashboard. So to speak, a digital portal, in other words, through which customers and patients can access everything that has to do with their health and well-being.

The customer dashboard is designed to enhance the customer experience in the pharmacy with or through an online experience. It is the gateway to the digital health world. In 2022, we plan to launch it. You can find your appointments with a doctor or pharmacist in one central place. Patients who regularly need medication can call up their e-Mediplan and are automatically reminded when they need to order medication again. The order can then also be placed directly via the customer dashboard. The billing with health insurance companies, networking with service providers and health insurance companies, the e-prescription data of the health services received, all these are further elements that we want to integrate in that dashboard. However, digital networking does not only take place directly between us and our customers.

It is also increasingly taking place on so-called digital health platforms with various market participants, customers and patients. They offer users low-threshold access to medical services. These platforms only generate added value for all market participants, for customers and patients, and thus for all of us in the health system, firstly, if they are accessible to all. Second, if the large national market participants are also on board. Thirdly, if the customer, the patient, sees that he has added value that benefits him. For example, he has added value when everything that concerns his health and well-being is available to him via one platform. Various players in the health market are currently setting up such platforms, such as Compassana, Well or Benecura. We do not want to create these kinds of platforms ourselves.

Our goal is to be involved as a partner in the development of the relevant platforms and thus offer our customers free choice and access to a variety of value-added services. In 2021, we have launched a pilot with Well for flu vaccination. Well customers can book an appointment directly online for flu vaccination at one of our vaccination pharmacies, namely Amavita, Sun Store, and Coop Vitality. At the same time, such partnerships, of course, extend the reach of our own digital portals. Similar to the platform for B2C customers, we also want to expand the digital gateway for B2B customers, for professionals such as pharmacists, doctors, hospitals, homes, and home care organizations. Here, too, the aim is to provide these customers with access to all the services and products we offer within the Galenica Group, and we do so via a digital portal.

We also want to support professionals in networking, for example, by enabling doctors and pharmacists to exchange information directly. This, with the logical consequence that the exchange between doctor and pharmacist is also transparent and visible for the patient via the customer dashboard. We also want to develop further internally, which includes, for example, the further development of our data integration platform or the analytical workplace, so that we can serve our customers and patients even better and in even more targeted manner with the offers and services relevant to them. The last two pandemic years, in particular, have shown more clearly than ever how much or to what extent the healthcare sector really needs to catch up when it comes to digitization. Our platforms, such as the customer dashboard, a big step forward for us and for our customers.

With our developments, we support all service providers in the efficient care of their patients. For example, the e-Mediplan or the e-prescription have been proven to increase safety and quality in medicinal therapy. Omnichannel also includes the product range and the physical sales channels. In 2021, we also grew thanks to acquisitions, for example, with the vitamin D products from Wild or with the acquisition of Spagyros and the expansion of the complementary medicine range. We will continue to pursue acquisitions and new partnerships or the expansion of existing ones in a targeted fashion. Even with increasing digitization, the pharmacy is and will remain a central element in our sales structure, which we continue to develop too.

On the one hand, quantitatively, we will still want to expand and optimize our pharmacy network, but we also want to improve the experience of the customers in the pharmacy. We opened the first pharmacies with a new shop layout at the end of 2021 with the Sun Store pharmacies in Crissier and Villars-sur-Glâne. Others will follow. In all pharmacies, we try to set up additional space for on-site services wherever possible, in some cases, even with several consultation rooms in one pharmacy. This brings me to the next important topic, the pharmacy as the first point of contact for health issues. In the care program, we are working intensively on our service portfolio. This includes, for example, everything we have developed and offered since 2020 to combat COVID-19.

We will continue to offer these COVID-19 initiatives, such as testing and vaccination, probably at least for the time being. The corona pandemic has shown what pharmacies can do for the population. We want to expand these competencies even more, for example, by expanding our vaccination offer and making it as easy as possible for customers to go for vaccinations thanks to digital appointment registration on the customer dashboard. In 2021, we carried out over 100,000 primary care consultations in our pharmacies. We also want to further expand this offer, which now includes 28 indications. Primary care makes an important contribution to positioning the pharmacy as the first point of contact for health issues. Patients often go immediately to their family doctor or to the emergency department of a hospital.

In many cases, the pharmacy can help quickly, competently, and more cost efficiently. The customer can come to the pharmacy at any time without an appointment and receive immediate advice and therapy. Even prescription medicines are offered that way if necessary. We are working hard to achieve that these services are also covered by the health insurance companies if they are provided in the pharmacy. After all, they also pay doctors usually when there's a consultation. CSS Health Insurance is the first to cover primary care services provided by pharmacies in its supplementary insurance. A first success. In addition to the primary care services, we would also like to advise clients on new focus areas, such as female health.

Finally, we also consistently do networking the pharmacies with digital developments, for example, within the framework of the pilot projects for the introduction of the electronic prescription. Here, the pharmacy, mail order pharmacy and doctors are networked and connected together with a patient via tools such as e-Mediplan and in future via our customer dashboard. Developing skills also means investing in employees and offering them opportunities for further development. Our pharmacists can thus benefit from a wide range of training and development opportunities. In our annual report, you will find two concrete examples of how employees can develop within Galenica. Securing skilled workers in the health sector is also a challenge for us. With the development of health services in pharmacy and the associated further training and expansion of competencies, we offer pharmacists and all their employees an exciting and attractive perspective.

In 2021, we realized almost CHF half a billion in sales in pharmacies at home, and the demand for even more outpatient services and treatment option will continue to grow. Patients and older people should be cared for at home if they wish so for as long as possible. Home care is a promising market, and we still see a lot of growth potential here. On the one hand, the patient services from MediService or Bichsel, and on the other hand, the care institutions such as the home care organizations or homes with services from Galexis, Medifilm, or Lifestage Solutions. We offer these B2B customers the opportunity to use offers from different modules individually or in combination, but most importantly, well coordinated. Our wide range of services is unique in Switzerland.

Digitalization also plays an important role for these B2B customers, not least in order to become more efficient and to be able to absorb the cost pressure. Our most recent acquisition, Lifestage Solutions, is an example of how we also support our B2B customers in these issues. Because Lifestage Solutions is not just about selling products, but primarily about solutions that make internal processes easier and more efficient. In 2022, we intend to further expand this offer and the platform and convince new customers of the added value involved. With our commitment in the home care sector, we also contribute to cost efficiency in the health care system, and we support the great need of these patients for more quality of life and help them to be as independent and at home as possible.

In 2021, we again gained a market share among doctors, and we increased sales by a proud 10%. This means that even in the difficult pandemic year, we kept our promise to customers and delivered in high quality and reliability. We were also able to win new customers with new offers and services. For example, with specific offers for specialist doctors such as oncologists and rheumatologists. These are all successes from our strategic program professionals. In order to be able to continue to deliver the increasing volumes and the highest quality, we are investing in logistics. In 2021, for instance, we made extensions to the distribution center in Niederbipp. This year, we will complete the renovation work in Lausanne-Ecublens and be able to inaugurate the renovated modern distribution center.

Our services relating to the establishment and management of group practices and medical centers are also gaining more and more interest. The traditional family doctor's practice is disappearing, often because doctors who retire cannot find a successor. In many regions in Switzerland, there are already too few GPs, and the shortage will increase in the near future. We hope to ensure that new formats may be established that offer doctors an attractive and solid basis for the future, both financially and in terms of management. This is also a contribution by Galenica to medical care security in Switzerland. One year ago, I have presented the Galenica story, which we newly developed at the time. Since then, we've been working consistently on implementing it with the support of these strategic programs. They help us implement the strategy with the right priorities and the necessary drive.

I showed you what we're working on and what progress we've made and which direction we want to move forward. In order to successfully continue this development, we also have to develop internally. Therefore, we have also defined key points for the transformation strategic program. Galenica has already experienced many change processes. What is new for us, as for many other organizations, are changes such as the world of work, taking on topics such as digitization, work from home or agile working methods, and thus also changes in collaboration and in culture. Thanks to precisely because of digitization, the increasing pace is also a great challenge. The speed at which these changes come and establish themselves as standards forces to continuously develop. The objectives in the transformation strategic program, we have defined five main topics.

One aspect is the way we work with the aim that it also contributes to the success of the strategic programs and our activities. Let us take the example of our digitization initiatives. If we want to realize the vision of our customer dashboard, if we want to offer a digital gateway for professionals, if we want to digitally connect all players in the healthcare system and thus want to create an added value for everyone in terms of efficiency and safety, then these initiatives must be developed in a coordinated fashion and implemented in a network. To support us, we've opted for agile implementation according to SAFe in the area of software development. SAFe stands for Scaled Agile Framework, gives us the framework for agile project management. We've formed agile teams across the organization to work together on the implementation.

For instance, the digital initiatives for the omni-channel and professional strategic programs are implemented together by different teams. That makes a lot of sense because there are so many common issues such as the e-prescription, where patient, doctor, pharmacist, mail order pharmacy, and health insurance company must be connected. These common topics are extremely interdependent in their implementation and must be coordinated to the max. The SAFe way of working helps us to ensure that all teams work on the right issues with the right priorities and may implement them quickly and efficiently. Agile working in teams should not be limited to IT projects, though. We want to lead the entire organization towards using these methods wherever they make sense. These were so me concrete examples of how we consistently implement our strategic programs.

However, all strategic programs include not only financial and economic goals, but also ESG objectives, for instance, topics such as patient safety, data privacy or diversity and equal opportunities in the Galenica Group. At Galenica, sustainable behavior is already part of our vision and our promise to the customers. Health and well-being are at the heart of what we do, and we support people on their journey towards health and well-being. That is the basis of all our activities and the core of our sustainable corporate strategy. Today, for the first time, we're publishing our sustainability report on the basis of the GRI standards, and we have combined the reporting with the annual report. For the first time, we've also published concrete sustainability goals. They're based on the topics of particular importance to us: corporate governance, employees, patients, and the environment.

As a proof and a sign that the executive committee is fully committed to the goals of the Galenica Group as a team, all members have three common goals, also one sustainability goal for 2022. The focus is on employee satisfaction. Recently, the rating agency Sustainalytics informed us that we were rated as a top ESG performer amongst 4,000 comparable companies that they analyze worldwide. Out of 605 healthcare companies, we ranked number 5. Which means we're in the top 2% of our industry. In addition, we've been awarded in the ranking the most climate conscious companies in Switzerland 2021. The ranking was completed by Bilanz, Le Temps and Statista, and honors those companies that have reduced their greenhouse gas emissions the most.

Recognition is also due to the employees of the Galenica Group for their extraordinary commitment in another challenging pandemic year. Thank you for this outstanding performance. We're also rewarding the employees for the successful year 2021. All employees will receive an extraordinary bonus of CHF 1,000 . In addition, we're proposing a dividend increase of 17% to shareholders at the upcoming general meeting. With that, let me conclude my presentation and now hand over to our CFO, Felix Burkhard.

Felix Burkhard
CFO, Galenica Group

Dear ladies and gentlemen, 2021 was an extraordinarily successful financial year, a record year in terms of growth, result, and cash flow. An extraordinary year, of course, thanks to extraordinary one-off events such as the distribution of COVID-19 self-tests to the entire Swiss population exclusively in pharmacies or the sale of the building at our headquarters in Bern. Even without these extraordinary results, Galenica 2021 has developed very successfully and, like this cross-country skier, has stayed on track with full speed, and thus taken a big step forward. 10.2%, a unique sales growth for Galenica. By way of comparison, in the last 10 years, we have grown by an average of 3.2% per year. Extraordinary income from the COVID-19 pandemic initiatives, testing, vaccination, and in particular, self-test distribution contributed some 3.1% to growth.

In Swiss francs, that is CHF 108 million. Even without these extraordinary sales, growth was at a very high 7.1%. This high ordinary growth comes in particular from MediService, with new medicines for rare diseases, from expansion with M&A transactions in the fields of products, home care, services, and pharmacies, and from wholesale, mainly thanks to market share gains in the physicians segment. Before I go into the details of the sales development in the different areas, I would like first to briefly discuss the different margin profiles of these four big growth drivers in 2021. With CHF 108 million from the extraordinary sales of the COVID-19 initiatives, we generated an EBIT of around CHF 25 million, which means a very high EBIT margin of around 23%.

The EBIT margins of MediService with high-priced products and those in wholesale, on the other hand, are in the low- to mid-single-digit % range. Purchased sales with M&A transactions has different margins depending on the business, but these are mostly also in the single-digit or low double-digit % range. Understanding these different margin profiles is important so that you can better understand the 2022 outlook. In a nutshell, offsetting the extraordinary sales in 2021 of CHF 108 million from the COVID-19 initiatives in the financial year 2022 with ordinary sales should be quite possible. To compensate the extraordinary EBIT contribution of CHF 25 million with this ordinary additional turnover will be very difficult because of the lower margins. Let's first go to the sales development in the different areas. Our stationary pharmacies grew very strongly last year with 8.5%.

Excluding the expansion effects of 2.2% and the extraordinary sales from COVID-19 initiatives of 5.6%, organic growth was still at 0.7%. At first glance, these 0.7% seem quite low compared to the three point five growth of the medicines market of the stationary pharmacies. However, in this comparison, it must be taken into account that the high market growth was only possible thanks to the growth of high-priced medicines. In terms of number of packs sold, the market declined slightly by 0.3%. In Galenica pharmacies, prescriptions with high-priced medicines are generally shifted to our specialty pharmacy MediService, which specializes in this business. These sales are then missing in the local pharmacies area in the market comparison. In addition, we consistently promote the substitution of original medicines with generics.

The substitution rate in our pharmacies with us further increased by 1.5 points to 73.5%, which also had a dampening effect on the development of sales. In comparison, the substitution rate in the pharmacy market was at 59%. With us again contributed to curb the increase in costs in the healthcare system. The consumer healthcare market, which includes OTC medicines, medical devices, nutrition, and cosmetics, declined slightly by 0.2% excluding the COVID-19 self-tests. The significant sales losses in the first half of the year due to the virtual absence of the flu epidemic, the market was at 3.7% below the previous year at mid-year, were almost compensated for in the second half of the year. Around 8% of sales of our stationary pharmacies is realized at high frequency locations.

The situation for these 13 pharmacies in prime locations in airports, railway stations remains tense. As expected, sales have slowly recovered over the course of the year. You can see on this graph the index of sales development over the last three years. In black, 2019 as the reference year before the pandemic. Red, 2020 with the sales slump in spring when the pandemic started. Blue, 2021, sales without COVID-19 initiatives with a slow recovery. Despite recovery, sales were still at around 20% below pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2021. At the beginning of 2021, however, the shortfall was still around 35%. At pharmacies at home, however, the word shortfall does not exist.

In this area, where customers do not come to us, but we bring the customers and services to the customer's home, we had an extraordinarily strong growth with 29%. The share of mail order in total retail sales has increased from 23.4% to 27.7%. The online channels of Amavita and Sun Store, that is to say, web shops and mail order pharmacies, have grown very pleasingly by 50%. However, sales are still in the low double-digit millions in the order of CHF 20 million-CHF 25 million . Bichsel's home care services also developed well with a +6%. By far, the largest contribution to growth at CHF 93 million came from the MediService specialty pharmacy in the area of chronic and rare diseases in combination with home care services. Rare disease therapies, oncology, and hemophilia were the main growth indications.

The development of MediService 2021 is impressive. With this exceptional growth, MediService was able to increase its market share in the mail order business from 61.6% to 65.1%. However, this high growth cannot simply be expected and extrapolated into the future. Sales in the specialty pharmacy sector are very volatile. They thrive on innovation, on sales of newly launched, usually very expensive products, which then decline again later after the broad market launch. These sales losses must then be compensated by with new products. However, we are very well-positioned in this area with MediService. In the coming years, we want to develop further in this growing market with our specialty and home care offers. We want to further develop the normal online pharmacy business.

That means the mail order pharmacies with prescription and OTC medicines and consumer healthcare ranges with the online channels of our pharmacy formats, Amavita, Sun Store, and Coop Vitality. These sales are still much lower today than in the specialized mail order business, but hold great growth potential for the future. In the medium term, that is 2024-2026, we expect a high growth contribution from our online pharmacies. The sales of online pharmacies will continue to develop steadily, but at, as I mentioned, at a relatively low level. For a real growth push to a significantly higher sales level, two factors are of importance: the liberalization of the OTC mail order business and the widespread use of electronic prescriptions. In the area of OTC mail order, the Federal Council issued a mandate for the preparation of a draft law at the end of the year.

As the consultation is not due to start until 2023, implementation can only be expected in 2024 at best. In the area of electronic prescriptions, it does not look like there will be a change in the regulatory framework quite yet. The Federal Council has rejected a motion to oblige service providers to use electronic prescriptions. We assume that it will still take a few years before electronic prescriptions become the standard for the majority of doctors. The online pharmacy sector offers great growth potential in the medium term and is a top strategic priority for us. You've heard it from Marc Werner. We are consistently promoting the digitalization and networking of the healthcare market and invest in the digitization of our pharmacy business. We're expanding and networking online channels, improving the customer experience, and invest further in the electronic prescription and other digital services.

We'll certainly continue to grow further over the next few years, but primarily we will invest in the future. We expect a big growth push only in 2024-2026. Let's now switch from digital pharmacies to physical products. Thanks to further expansion, the products and brand sector grew strongly by 17.8%. Excluding the expansion effect of 22%, organic growth was at -4.2%. The losses with existing products in the first half of the year due to the lack of flu and colds of -22.9%, were practically compensated for in the second half of the year, thanks to strong sales in November and December, with an almost normal flu and cold season, except for the remaining -4.2%.

Expansion was exceptionally dynamic in 2020 and 2021 with the acquisition of the Hedoga Group, Dr. Wild products, and Spagyros, as well as numerous new distribution contracts. In 2022, at least from the acquisitions of Dr. Wild products and Spagyros, we'll see further expansion effects. In addition, we are constantly looking for new expansion opportunities. Let us now move on to the logistics and IT segment. The wholesale segment developed very positively in 2021 with growth of 7.8%. Even without the extraordinary sales of COVID-19 self-tests, with an effect of 2.8%, a high growth of 5% resulted. In the pharmacy channel, we grew by 7.5%. Adjusted for COVID-19 self-test sales, that equals 3.8%.

Growth in the physicians segment was particularly strong at 9.8%, where we continue to gain market share. The market share gain among physicians at the expense of other wholesalers amounted to 1.6 percentage points, given as a market share of 31.3% in 2021. In the sales channel of stationary pharmacies, our market share remained virtually stable at around 48%. Due to the expansion, there was a slight shift from third-party to own pharmacies. So much for last year's sales development. Let's now look ahead to the 2022 financial year. We want to continue to grow this year and expect sales at least at the level of the previous year. We assume a gradual normalization of the corona situation.

Due to the easing of distancing and hygiene measures, we expect an increase in cold and flu infections, which should help us to achieve a corresponding growth in sales in the first half of 2022. To assess the growth potential in this regard, it is best to look back at the first half of 2021. At that time, we lost around CHF 30 million in sales due to the lack of a flu epidemic. We also expect growth in pharmacies in high frequency locations. Here, however, we continue to assume a slow recovery and expect to remain below pre-pandemic levels due to increased working from home. The extraordinarily high additional sales from the measures to combat the corona pandemic are no longer expected in the 2022 financial year.

Based on 2021 sales, excluding the extraordinary CHF 108 million from the COVID-19 initiatives, our guidance corresponds to growth of at least 2.9%.

Let us now move on from sales to operating results. With a growth of 26.4%, we were able to achieve a record EBIT of CHF 213.1 million, which is a unique result. If we deduct the extraordinary contributions of around CHF 25 million, thanks to the COVID-19 initiatives, and CHF 9.4 million from the sale of the building at the headquarters in Bern, the result is still an EBIT of CHF 178.7 million, around CHF 10 million above previous year, which corresponds to an EBIT growth of 6%. This is slightly above the original guidance of a year ago, where we forecast EBIT growth of 2%-5%. Our assumptions on which we based this first guidance have turned out to be quite accurate.

We assumed continued negative COVID-19 effects in the first half year, with a lack of cold and flu infections and low mobility, and a significant improvement of the situation in the second half year. Pretty much what happened then. Only the extraordinary COVID-19 income, especially with the delivery of the self-tests and of course, the profit from the property sale, that was something we could not foresee. The EBIT growth, excluding the extraordinary elements, was mainly realized in the Products and Care segment. Ordinary EBIT growth in this segment was 9.1%. In the Logistics and IT segment, EBIT, excluding the extraordinary elements, was only slightly above the previous year at +9.9%.

The additional profit contributions from the strong growth in the wholesale were virtually offset by project growth costs for the renovation and modernization of the distribution center in Lausanne-Ecublens and the introduction of the new ERP system. Let's move on to our expectations for the EBIT development of 2022. Based on the adjusted EBIT in 2021, excluding the extraordinary elements, we expect growth to range between 5% and 10%. In Swiss francs, between CHF 9 million and CHF 18 million. As already explained at the beginning of my presentation, it will hardly be possible to compensate for the extraordinary EBIT contribution from COVID-19 initiatives of around CHF 25 million with ordinary growth due to the different margin profiles. We expect a good half of the expected EBIT growth, between CHF 5 million and CHF 10 million, thanks to the gradual normalization of the COVID situation.

For comparison, in the first half of 2021, we lost around CHF 10 million EBIT due to the virtual absence of the flu epidemic and low mobility. We should be able to realize a significant part of this again in the first half of 2022. This leaves a remaining estimated EBIT growth of between CHF 4 million and CHF 8 million, or around 2%-5%. Looking at our performance over the past years, the EBIT guidance seems cautious. We are currently facing some challenges that contribute to this cautious assessment. I'm sorry. On the one hand, price increases and the risk of supply bottlenecks in various economic sectors. Even though Galenica is not heavily exposed in this respect, we're nonetheless affected. Fuel, energy, consumables, materials for shop fittings, to name just a few examples.

Another challenge that we are currently facing, and Marc mentioned it, is the shortage of qualified staff. We've been facing a shortage of qualified staff in our pharmacies for many years. In recent months, however, the situation has become more acute. We're doing everything we can to improve the situation again, and we're confident that we will succeed also thanks to the normalization of the COVID situation. It does remain a real challenge.

We are also experiencing a shortage of skilled staff in other areas, especially in IT, which in turn has an impact on the third challenge: the ongoing investment in the digitization of our business, be it in logistics, with the project to replace our ERP system, but also in the strategic omni-channel program, with the expansion and networking of our online channels, the implementation of the electronic prescription and other digital services. These are investments that will open up significant growth and efficiency potential for us in the medium term. Against this background, we consider our EBIT guidance to be realistic, but also as an ambitious target. When we talk about the challenges for Galenica, we automatically come to the topic of regulation. In the area of regulation, we currently see no major risks for 2022.

The reference price system for generics was definitely rejected by parliament in December 2021. Allowing direct imports of medicines without examination by Swissmedic was rejected by the Council of States from last year's winter session. Last week, the National Council also dismissed this proposal. In the area of the distribution margin and the service-based remuneration contract five, the joint proposal by pharmaSuisse and curafutura is still under discussion. In the meantime, the Federal Office of Public Health has proposed another model, which is currently under consultation. Many things are still unclear. The only thing that is currently certain in this regard is that no change is to be expected before 2023. In 2021, it was not only the turnover and EBIT growth were exceptionally high, but also our cash flow.

At CHF 194.4 million, we generated a uniquely high free cash flow. Thanks to the good results, the operating cash flow is also very high at CHF 281.4 million. The cash inflow of CHF 51.7 million from the decrease in net working capital is extraordinarily high. This results from the very strong business performance towards the end of the year, with high cash holdings, low inventories, and high accounts payable. This low level of net working capital is not sustainable. We must expect a corresponding counter movement in the following period under normal circumstances. In addition, the sale of the property at the headquarters in Bern led to a cash inflow of CHF 38.2 million. The extraordinarily high free cash flow has, of course, also strengthened our balance sheet.

Net debt decreased by almost CHF 100 million to CHF 258 million. As the net debt is extraordinarily low and the EBIT contains significant extraordinary contributions, the debt cove rage is also extraordinarily low at 1.0. But even if we were to neutralize the various extraordinary elements, the debt coverage would have been significantly reduced to a value of around 1.4. Our balance sheet was significantly strengthened in 2021, and financial flexibility was increased further. That brings us towards the end, finally, to the dividends. The very strong balance sheet, the high results, and the positive outlook allow us to propose a dividend increase of 17% from CHF 1.80 to CHF 2.10 at the annual general meeting. Important thing is that this dividend proposal is not an extraordinary dividend due to the extraordinary results. No.

We intend to increase our dividend sustainable. Even though we expect a lower net profit in 2022, we are planning a dividend for next year, at least at the level of the previous year. Sticking to our dividend policy with stable dividends that grow in line with the results. 2021 was an extraordinarily successful year. We're stronger towards the future with an excellent starting position. Like this cross-country skier with fast, well-waxed skis, a good technique, top fit, and with great endurance. We'll stay on track with full speed, and will thus continue to make great progress in the coming years. Thank you very much for your attention, ladies and gentlemen, and we'd be happy to take your questions now. We'll now start the Q&A sessions. We start with questions from the audience in the room.

Let's start here in the room, and we'd be happy to take your questions, ladies and gentlemen. Yes, please. Do remember to use a microphone, please. I'm with Mirabaud. My first question is related to the OTC market. How much of an M&A potential do you still see, both from large scale pharma companies that would give something to you, or smaller ones like Dr. Wild? Is there still a large potential?

Very hard to tell. We do see some potential, but it's very hard to give a clear-cut outlook. Yes, we do see potential in the future in order to boost our offerings and our assortment. You are historically more familiar with it than me. Let me follow up, yes. Thank you. We have that market share of 8.5%, and are clearly the number one in the market, because number two and three range around 6% of market share. It's quite a highly fragmented market. There are so many small scale companies in this market, which is why we see potential to also acquire products or smaller companies and boost our market share in the process.

Of course, it has its limits with existing products, because you don't want to cannibalize yourself. According to indication, I would say, but we do see enough potential, yes. My second question on the doctors market. Your market share is 31%, is that correct? The second biggest part is direct, so that's probably pharma companies for the group practices. Now, how about that development over the past few years? Did that share increase or decrease? How about the trend for the future? Are the bigger ones on their way out, or is that completely individual, and can you capitalize on that? Now, the share of direct deliveries in our doctors channel has remained quite stable, I would say, over the past few years.

There were certain shifts towards wholesale, but only small scale shifts on a whole. We forecast stable conditions. Thank you very much for explaining the EBIT in detail. That was very helpful for us. My last question is the CHF 10 million EBIT that you lost in the first half of 2021 due to the absence of the flu. How about the second half of 2021? That will have been less because there was an absence of the flu. Or how about those EBIT patterns in general, first half, second half? How about that? Well, in the winter term, 20 and 2021, there was a complete absence, really, of the flu.

We found out about that in the second half already and lost in sales and in EBIT. We forecast for our financials for the year that we would lose even more. Now for the first half of 2021, we assume the loss to amount to CHF 10 million. We also said that we would compensate for that in the second half, if we did so, the second half on the previous year. Of course, we increased massively because in November and December we saw a regular flu season and cold season was so we compensated for the first half. For 2022, for the first half on the first half of 2021, we had the minus CHF 10 million.

We now expect a normalization and a potential to boost EBIT by about CHF 5 million-CHF 10 million. The year has started well. The Sentinella flu graph, you will be familiar with that. It went up massively and then went down again. It's quite difficult to talk about further developments now. A certain normalization of OTC sales is expected for the first half on the previous year. In the second half to close that, we don't really have the comparing period. The second semester 2022 was strong. 2021, excuse me, was strong. We will then also have to consider the extraordinary sales that were great in the first half year. Urs Kunz.

Speaker 11

On the one hand, a question regarding CapEx for the current year. Last year, you said equity investment, 42, mentioned PPE. What about the current year? What do you expect? Another question, e-prescriptions. In the investment day, we said 60%-70%. In e-prescriptions, electronic prescriptions. Do you still stand by that? You now say that it takes a little longer maybe, and the question is regarding the Amavita, Sun Store mail order, and their sales. What about the Rx part there?

Felix Burkhard
CFO, Galenica Group

I'd like to start with the Rx share first. It goes towards zero. It's really low, that share. Here the forecast for prescriptions, that's up to you, Marc. That's the more complicated part of the question. The CapEx expectations, it's difficult. In the past years, CapEx increased in percentages compared with the sales.

We, over the last few three years, we were at 1.6% of sales. I think that this is probably not a bad idea to also consider that for this year. The trend is towards a higher investment. That's what we expect, in particular, when it comes to the investment in software, digital products, fixed assets in both segments, really. 50%-60% in five years, yes, I stand by that statement. I don't say no. It's an ambitious statement. The experience has shown that in particular in terms of digitization, for a very long time, nothing happens, and then something happens.

If we take a look at the investment rates and changes in politics, in the economy, and how much we invest in digitization, not only by Galenica, but by others too, and the extent to which the authorities also now come to understand that digitization certainly will have to make headway in terms of healthcare in order to catch up with other economic sectors. Certainly, we still need time for the next one to two years. There will not really be a lot of development. We need some infrastructure, education on, and training on different levels, solutions that offer convenience. I'm very optimistic that the overall industry, and we in particular, also focus very much on this topic, and that at one point, we will have a steeper curve, whether it's 50%, 60%.

That is really like a start-up business case. It's really difficult to forecast that development, but we certainly go in that direction. The politics will have to support us, and the economy also. The business sector will have to support us so too. Would you dare a statement as to how much we will switch to mail order? Well, I think there are two drivers. The online business, the mail order business, so that it can increase certainly the e-prescription infrastructure. Without e-prescriptions, online business for prescriptions with a prescription does not really make much sense. If you have a printout version of a prescription, you don't buy online.

Marc Werner
CEO, Galenica Group

The question of OTC, where we have a consultation process in 2023, and we assume that there will be, by 2024, 2025, that we have liberalization there, that you can buy OTC medicines, certainly not like gums. There will be a patient check also that is necessary, but OTC liberalization, OTC infrastructure will certainly boost the mail sales. That will certainly happen in my view. Thank you.

Operator

Are there any other questions? Stefan Schneider.

Stefan Schneider
Senior Equity Analyst Healthcare, Vontobel

Two technical aspects. Price reductions for 2022. What do you think about that? Lausanne-Ecublens nears its end. What about replacement projects? Do you have anything in mind? Do you need investment that will come in the coming years?

Felix Burkhard
CFO, Galenica Group

Well, price reductions, they will certainly continue. That's a three-year cycle.

Over three years, all the medicines will be checked and reduced, and this continues also for 2022. 2023, we will have similar price reductions like this year. That's the estimate. We do not know any more than that, but we just assume that this is the way it will continue. Now for Lausanne, we don't look for a replacement project, really. No, we do not really look for a replacement project there. The boss is behind you. Maybe he can answer that question. No, we don't know either. We'll just need a deep dive here. Any further questions? Other than that, I'd say let's take a look at the online community. Are there any online questions from the audience online?

Operator

Yes, Mr. Werner. First question is from Sebastian Vogel from UBS. Mr. Vogel, please. Good morning. Can we hear you?

Sebastian Vogel
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yes, we can hear you. You mentioned the Rx 0% growth. Is that a general Galenica statement or is it just an estimate?

Felix Burkhard
CFO, Galenica Group

Well, that's an estimate from ours that the online prescriptions will have a market share of around 0%. Of course, there are prescriptions. We have to differentiate. There are some prescriptions that are sent out by mail, by fax, and there's a market share for that, a certain specific one. And MediService is also very strong there. Online prescriptions that are issued electronically and delivered electronically, well, I don't think that there will be a major market share. The use case is really the permanent prescriptions. If you have an individual prescription, the use case is not good enough so that it makes sense.

If you have a permanent one, even if you have a printout prescription, maybe I didn't explain it correctly. You have the three formats, a paper prescription, you are registered, and then you can receive the prescription and have it sent home, if it's a permanent prescription. You can have it in all the three formats of pharmacies, and it makes sense to have that online service. It makes sense also from the side of the customer. Without a customer benefit, such projects will not work. I, for instance, also deposited my prescription somewhere. It's just a convenience issue, really. You can do that if you have a permanent prescription.

Sebastian Vogel
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

What about the 0%? Is that your market share or your business?

Marc Werner
CEO, Galenica Group

No, it's not our business.

That would be our market, really, as Felix said. We assume that in Switzerland, we have the double voluntary aspect also on the prescription, and there is not a lot going on there.

Sebastian Vogel
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Thank you.

Marc Werner
CEO, Galenica Group

65% market share. MediService, is that a specialized mail order, broad mail order? No, it's overall mail order. The overall mail order data. And the majority are prescription products. 90% of the market volume is prescription medication. That's the market share in value. That's to say in Swiss francs. That's very important. In terms of the number of packs or products, our market share is at some 25%, which comes to show the strong positioning of MediService in that niche service with very complex therapies and that are very costly.

Sebastian Vogel
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

My third question. With that network.

Marc Werner
CEO, Galenica Group

Last year, we talked about there were not a lot of changes. Do you come back to the ambitions that you have previously, or did something change there? Well, we've had eight pharmacies that we have bought or opened up, six restructured. That's to say we have an increase, net increase of two. Our guidance for years has been between five to 15 pharmacies that we want to add. Growth of +8 last year was within that range, even if we have to admit it was at the lower end of it. The last two years, we were above that range. But those were really dynamic years, and we just assume that we will find other opportunities to take over new pharmacies or open up new pharmacies.

Five to 15 new pharmacies, that's our guidance that we want to stick to. We can also be at the lower end of that range. Of course, that's the realistic aim. Certainly, we will also continue to optimize our network to combine pharmacies, increase locations and improve in locations.

Sebastian Vogel
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Thank you. Those were my questions. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Henriette Rumberger, AWP Finanznachrichten.

Henrietta Rumberger
Head of Financial Analysis, awp Finanznachrichten

Good morning. Basically, I have one and a half question, if I could say so. You kept on reiterating that it hinges on the flu season. Now, how about 2022 so far? How did you start to the year? You underlined that the EBIT loss will be compensated again. So you are confident when you look to the future, and you did have a strong start to the year?

Felix Burkhard
CFO, Galenica Group

Yes. I did mention that the November and December basically started with a regular influenza season. Let me put it that way. Then everything went quite smoothly and in accordance with the Sentinella graph, it went down again. Now, we'll see how things develop. That depends on the weather, of course.

It also depends on the protective measures, how people will behave in the future, in other words. We cannot predict that. We believe that in the coming half year, we'll have a more or less normal flu season and cold season. My follow-up question would be the growth guidance for 2022. Is that a pace that you also envisage in the medium term, that is, for the following years?

Now, should you relate back to pharmacies and range of 5%-15%, I can say yes.

Stefan Schneider
Senior Equity Analyst Healthcare, Vontobel

I meant the corporate guidance, the sales growth. Is that what you're trying to get at? Yes. Sales. There is an EBIT guidance too. My question is that a growth rate that will continue in the medium term?

Felix Burkhard
CFO, Galenica Group

Now, we have a guidance for 2022 that has been published in the investor presentations. We have that. We have a medium-term guidance that we've confirmed, and there we're saying that a market growth of 1%-2% is being envisaged for the next year. We believe that thanks to our expansion and our strategic programs, we can outperform the market. In terms of our EBIT, our medium-term guidance is to boost the EBIT margin in the mid-term. It's a range between 24%-26%. In our segment products and care over and above 8%, and in logistics and IT, up to 2%.

That's our midterm guidance, and we'll intend to stick to it.

Henrietta Rumberger
Head of Financial Analysis, awp Finanznachrichten

Thank you.

Felix Burkhard
CFO, Galenica Group

The next question is Gian Marco Werro from Zürcher Kantonalbank.

I have three questions. A very good morning to all of you. Let me compliment you on your performance and also for your strong commitment in Ukraine and in COVID. My questions, the e-prescriptions, I mean, that should really be an everyday occurrence. But you pointed out a 0% market share, which is quite small. Do you have an active marketing campaign on the part of Galenica or even on the part of the government? My second question relates to vaccinations in general, really, because there are so many staffers that you trained in order to vaccinate people.

Gian Marco Werro
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Zürcher Kantonalbank

Can you give us a rough estimate how many of your staff or how many of your pharmacies already administer vaccinations of any kind? A third one topic that seems to be one of your main challenges is the lack of skilled workers. You pointed to that and you said that you were going to accentuate employee satisfaction in 2022. What are the measures that you envisage to diffuse the situation? Thank you very much.

Marc Werner
CEO, Galenica Group

Good. Now the e-prescription, if I've understood you correctly, what is it, what we do, and where is the support coming from? Well, quite obviously, that's a political topic. I've mentioned it in passing. We have that double voluntary aspect, so nobody has to turn anything into an e-prescription if they don't want to, neither the doctor or other institution.

Which differs in Germany, by the way, where politicians decided otherwise. There is a pressure for e-prescriptions. In Switzerland, that is driven by the industry alone. It's, of course, in our interest to drive that further. Investing into the e-prescription because digitalization will bring added value, we believe on the one hand for Galenica, on the other hand, for the healthcare market per se. Other market players have also made their contribution, so that we'll get that done even without the politicians in the coming years. Now, on vaccinations, I'm looking at my experts in the audience. I would've said 150-160 pharmacies that provide vaccinations. Is that correct? A few more. Half of...

About half of our pharmacies are in a position to provide people with vaccinations. After COVID, we've already cleared that hump. These initiatives that we launched on account of Corona will be continued. I'll talk about primary care. This is the means how the tools or the knowledge, the know-how that we've built inside of the pharmacies to capitalize on that. Because you can get vaccinated not only against COVID in our pharmacies. I believe we're going to expand on that to capitalize on the know-how, and that link gives me the link to the shortage of skilled workers. Because what we're doing is create really exciting jobs.

As I've said before, this is really about providing interesting jobs for the employees, for the pharmacies, exciting services. This is what primary care is all about. So that they use what they have in terms of knowledge in consultations and not only in sales. Now, the shortage of skilled staff is something that we're taking truly seriously. We have an internal task force, and we don't usually do that. That's rather an exception, where basically we have gathered a team from certain backgrounds. We discuss with universities, we have marketing people. The entire gamut of things in order to really boost the careers of our employees. We discuss on a political level, on association level in order to find the solutions.

Again, an entire gamut of measures that we have. It is not an issue that can easily be solved, but we need to master it.

Gian Marco Werro
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Zürcher Kantonalbank

Thank you very much.

Marc Werner
CEO, Galenica Group

Thank you for the question. Are there any other questions?

Operator

Yes, please, Maja Pataki with Kepler. Your question, please.

Maja Pataki
Senior Equity Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Good morning, thank you for allowing me to ask a question. My question is really of a longer-term nature. Now, we have seen the cost increases, we've seen inflation of actual goods and still with raw materials but also when it comes to sourcing. One question would be: How about skilled workers? Is there anything where you'd say, "Okay, the wages will have to be increased in order to attract skilled labor"? Second, we've seen for Galenica that in products and brands, pharmacy and retail, there is a part of sensitivity that was coupled to risks, ethics, but also to other things. In how far do you see the risk of slightly declining sales in certain products in retail?

Should an inflation in Switzerland go up massively, which of course we do not hope. How would you hedge against that? My last question is that in the capitalization. What has the feedback been on the part of the customers? Thank you very much.

Marc Werner
CEO, Galenica Group

I'll take one and three and pass on two. I always get the difficult ones, don't I? Now, on your first question on inflation and shortages of labor and salaries, I've already mentioned this. It's a part of the task of our task force is to track for salary structures to have a benchmark. We've of course we have highly competitive salaries if you look around the market. So I do not see a high salary pressure.

Of course, should the inflation then go to ranges that we see in other countries, we might have to reassess. Right now, we have a manageable inflation in Switzerland. Then? What was the last one, please?

Maja Pataki
Senior Equity Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

The age structure.

Marc Werner
CEO, Galenica Group

Oh, the age structure. Yes, digitization and the age structure are an excellent topic. I said, the important things are that services will also be as successful if they create added value for the customer. If you have a complicated solutions with an app where you have to log on seven times until you can register with a digital service, forget about that. You have to build it to individual or to make sure that it caters to as many target groups as possible. The core target groups will not be the 20 to 30-year-old age groups, but those my age and older. The services will have to be built accordingly so that they have an added value that it facilitates our customers lives.

Because if you complicate life for people, then digitalization won't succeed. We have to build it for added value for our customers.

The second question, not sure whether I understood you correctly.

Maja Pataki
Senior Equity Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

What about the influence of inflation on retail sales? For the case that inflation in Switzerland, we hope that is not the case, but that it is so sizable that we feel it in terms of the inflation. What is the influence for sales in retail OTC products?

Felix Burkhard
CFO, Galenica Group

Oh, that's very difficult to say. In the regulated realm, that's about half of our sales. There is no inflation. The prices go down there, so that is excluded. Now, for the remaining aspects, it's difficult to say. For the consumers, a lot of. Well, if their purchasing power goes down, they maybe spend less on cosmetics, for instance, or beauty products. That's just one hypothesis. I do not really see a concrete risk. In the past, we've always mentioned the purchasing tourism.

Marc Werner
CEO, Galenica Group

The euro exchange rate also plays a role, and this is not a favorable development for us right now for our business. There could be a certain influence there, but I cannot really comment any more than that on it. That would refer to some 50% of the sales? Yes. The non-regulated range.

Operator

Now, the last question comes from Jan Koch, Deutsche Bank. Mr. Koch, the floor is yours.

Jan Koch
VP of Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Sorry, I was muted. Good morning. I have three questions. First of all, I would like to come back to that question of the flu season. If I take a look at the flu season, we are now above the previous year, but not in the range of the pre-COVID years. How does that fit in with your statement? Are there fewer cases or what about your guidance? Second question, M&A.

Jan Koch
Vice President, Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Are there some services or products that are still lacking, but that could be of interest to you? Regarding the cash position and low indebtedness, what can we expect in the coming 12 months? The third question is the supply chain. You've mentioned it briefly. Are there specific areas where there's a brake placed on you because you just don't have certain access?

Felix Burkhard
CFO, Galenica Group

First question that you asked. It's really difficult to say. I come back to my EBIT guidance. We expect some CHF 5 million-CHF 10 million EBIT contribution by the stronger flu season. CHF 5 million-CHF 10 million, I said. I told you that last half year, 2021, we lost some CHF 10 million. As you said, we do not really expect on a super flu season again, then we would be at the upper end.

We would be somewhere stuck in the middle between a good and a bad year. We do not expect a complete recovery, but depending on the weather, again, we will see what the future holds. Second item, Marc can add on to it, we check everything. If there is an opportunity for some acquisitions in products and services or pharmacies, it is clear, we check it. If it fits into our strategy and if it's fine also for the seller, then of course we love to acquire interesting companies that fit into our group. Of course, we have to check for it. We do not just invest because we have the money. We take a look that we see to it that we check for the quality, that it is profitable, that it fits into our strategy.

We are certainly interested, but we are also cautious. We're aware of what is available. As to the supply chain, of course, there are some risks. Price increases in energy, transport. I've already mentioned that. All these aspects also concern us. We are not very much exposed. Supply chain difficulties, that's clear when it comes to products and brands. When we have third-party products being produced elsewhere, it's a challenge to us if we get all the products and all the materials so that we can also keep up with our production? Certainly, that is an aspect of good management, but that is certainly also a risk that we are exposed to in our business.

Marc Werner
CEO, Galenica Group

I would like to add on to it, Felix Burkhard. You've really mentioned everything, almost, but supply chain. We cannot really have an influence on the bottleneck in the medicine barrier. Two days ago, we read that the federal government opens up certain reserves because certain medication is very difficult to access in Switzerland. That's also a permanent topic for of the supply chain. That is something that we have worldwide. It's not a Swiss-specific topic. That was really the last question, dear operator.

Operator

Yes, Mr. Werner, that was the last question, so back to you.

Marc Werner
CEO, Galenica Group

Thank you. Thank you also to the online community for asking questions. Thank you to the audience. It's 12:00. We're on time. Rather, we should like to thank everybody in the room and online.

Thank you for having taken the time either to come here or to be in front of your computer and on the screen. We are very happy not only to present the wonderful figures, but we were so happy to see real people, to have interaction, to have a discussion. We continue to do that. There's a lunch prepared for everybody who is here in the room and to all the others online. Enjoy your lunch in your offices, at home, wherever you are. Thank you again for having taken the time to come to this meeting.

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