Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Geberit conference call on the first information of the year 2023. I am Sandra, the conference call operator. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Christian Buhl, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you for the introduction, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to our full year sales conference call. We will first comment on our fourth quarter sales figures, then review our full year sales performance, followed by our guidance for the operational and financial results in 2023, and finish with the market outlook for this year. Let me start by giving you some comments on the sales development in the last quarter. Net sales grew by 4% and reached CHF 694 million. The strong, unfavorable currency development affected net sales negatively by CHF 28 million, or -4%. In local currencies, group net sales grew by 8%. The growth was caused by a volume increase of around 6% and sales price increases of around 2%.
The first volume growth since Q2 2022 was driven by a lower comparison base due to the strong wholesaler destocking in Q4 2022. Let me now comment on the sales development in local currencies of the regions and countries in the fourth quarter. In Europe, net sales increased by 7% with a positive development in almost all regions. The strongest markets with double-digit net sales growth were Eastern Europe, with +33%, due to a weak previous year quarter, Italy with +15%, and Austria with +11%. Single digit growth rates were recorded in Western Europe with +7%, Benelux with +5%, Germany with +4%, and Switzerland with +2%. Northern Europe was the only region in Europe with a net sales decline of -1%, driven by a weak market in Sweden.
Outside Europe, net sales increased strongly in Middle East Africa by +41%, driven by the Gulf region, decreased in Far East Pacific by -1% due to weak sales in China, and increased in America by +11%, benefiting from weak sales in the previous year's quarter. I continue with the sales development per product area in Q4, again, in local currencies. Installation of flushing systems and piping systems grew both by +11%, while bathroom systems increased net sales by +3%. The strong growth of installation of flushing systems can be explained by a base effect due to the wholesaler destocking in Q4 2022, while piping systems benefited from the success of our new supply piping system, FlowFit. The relatively weaker development of bathroom systems was driven by the soft demand for sanitary products in several European markets.
We will now comment on the full year 2023 sales performance. Net sales Swiss francs decreased by 9% to CHF 3,088.8 million, negatively affected by strong currency effects. Negative currency effects led to a net sales loss of CHF 147 million, or -4%. In local currencies, net sales decreased by -5%. This decline was caused by a volume contraction of around -13%, partially offset by sales price increases of around 8%. The strong volume contraction was caused by high volumes in the previous year and destocking effects in 2023. Secondly, a decline in building construction market due to building cost inflation and increased interest rates.
And thirdly, a decline in demand for sanitary renovation due to pull-forward effects during COVID-19 and heating-related renovations in selected European countries last year. Moving now to the net sales growth per region. Again, all growth figures refer to growth in local currencies. Supported by a more favorable market environment compared to the rest of Europe, net sales grew by +2% in Italy and were stable in Western Europe. Net sales in Benelux declined by 2% and by 4% in Switzerland. In Northern Europe, net sales decreased by -6%, with declining sales in most countries. Strong declines were recorded in Germany and Austria, with -10% and -8%. Both countries were most affected by heating-related renovations last year.
Eastern Europe recorded a decline of -9%, negatively affected by the exit from Russia and a strong base effect from the other Eastern European countries. Let me now turn to the regions outside Europe. In the Middle East and Africa region, net sales increased by 17%, driven by the Gulf. In America, net sales grew by 2%, and in Far East Pacific, net sales decreased by -4%, driven by China and Australia. Net sales in India grew double digits. Let me now comment on the sales development per product area, again, in local currency. Installation and flushing systems and bathroom systems declined each by -6%, and piping systems by -2%. Piping systems benefited from a strong growth of the already mentioned new supply piping system, FlowFit.
Let me now comment on our guidance for our 2023 operational and financial results. The EBITDA margin for full year is expected to be 30%. The full year tax rate, 2023, should be between 16% and 17%, and CapEx is expected to be around CHF 200 million. Before I come to the outlook for this year, let me briefly update you on our share buyback program. In total, we bought back 493,000 shares for a total amount of CHF 238 million last year. This means that we distributed, together with the dividend payment, CHF 662 million to shareholders in 2023. This corresponds to around 3.5% of the market capitalization of Geberit per end of the year. Let me now comment on our market outlook for 2024.
We expect overall, again, a very challenging environment, with an overall declining demand for building construction in our European markets this year, due to the increased macroeconomic pressure and ongoing geopolitical risks. Let me start our market outlook with Europe. The increased building costs and interest rates over the last two years significantly dampened demand for building construction activities, especially in the new build sector. Building permits in Europe declined by around 20% in the first nine months of 2023, mainly driven by the residential sector, leading to a contraction of the European new build construction business this year. The strongest decline of the new build sector is expected in Northern Europe and Germany. The most robust new build sector should be seen in Switzerland due to lower inflation and lower interest rates.
Unlike the new build sector, we expect the renovation business, in which we generate around 60% of our sales, to be more robust, mainly driven by the fundamental need for renovation in several European countries, and no additional pressure from the shift from sanitary to heating solutions, mainly to heat pumps, as experienced last year. Let me now turn to the regions outside Europe, where we expect a mixed picture for the building construction industry this year. We expect in several markets, for example, in India, the Gulf region, or Egypt, a strong demand. Other markets, for example, in China or in Australia, will be in a decline, mainly driven by the residential sector. Despite the overall negative sentiment for the building construction industry, we expect several positive catalysts for the sanitary construction markets.
For example, the expected interest rate cuts in the course of the year or the general and structural trend to better sanitary standards. Regardless of the challenging market environment this year, our overarching objective is to gain further market shares. To do so, we continue to stick to our two guiding principles: strategic stability and operational flexibility. The purpose of these principles remains to manage the volume uncertainties with a maximum of flexibility, without harming the midterm potential of the business. Volume uncertainties emerge also from the unpredictable inventory strategies of wholesalers in the current market environment, where wholesalers reduced their inventory levels below normal levels. We intend to manage these volume uncertainties again with our operational flexibility. In line with our principle of strategic stability, we will focus on our strategic initiatives as outlined at our Capital Market Day last October.
For example, the focus on prefabrication in the DACH market, the further penetration of our piping system, FlowFit, or new product introduction, supporting several strategic growth initiatives. Furthermore, we will increase our expenditures for dedicated sales initiatives in emerging markets, for marketing efforts in the context of the launch of our new shower toilet, Alba, and our 150th anniversary this year, and for investments in IT and digitalization. In total, we will increase operational expenditures for these initiatives by CHF 30 million in 2024. Let me now turn to our guidance for other key cost items this year. In terms of personnel costs, we expect a wage inflation of 5%-6%, and for raw materials, we expect slightly lower price levels in Q1 compared to Q4 last year.
As a consequence of the raw material price decline since March last year, we decided to keep our sales prices stable this year. Let me close our introduction with a short summary. 2023 was, in terms of volumes, the most difficult year since decades. Despite the historical volume contraction of -13%, we managed to increase our margins again. These results confirm our strong and consequent pricing management, our high operational flexibility, and our cost discipline in a declining market environment. For 2024, we expect again a challenging market environment. However, we believe Geberit is very well prepared to also master the uncertainties emerging from this environment, as already demonstrated several times during the past. Our confidence is based on our, on the fundamental need for our products, our resilient strategy and business model, and our long-term focus and track record.
The above mentioned additional operational expenditures of CHF 30 million this year, in the downturn of the market, are a testimony for our confidence into the undiminished mid-term growth potential of our business. Thank you for your attention. We are now ready to answer your questions.
Our first question comes from Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi, can you hear me?
We can hear you.
Okay, perfect. Sorry. Basically, I had two questions. The first one was just asking, it sounds like organically there is a sequential pickup beyond just it, it might. I guess you talked about easy comps, but do you see any signs of restocking? Normally, how early do wholesalers restock versus the leading indicators? And number two, this year, obviously, you had FlowFit has something helping you. Do you have something in 2024 in terms of product launches equivalent, maybe talking towards the, the CMD measures that that you have, you have announced? Thank you.
With regards to the stock levels of wholesalers in Q4, what we have heard from wholesalers, that they kept their whole, their inventory levels more or less stable. So no further destocking, but also not, also no restocking of their wholesale, inventory levels. Second question, there are a couple of new products which we will launch this year. We will talk about them in more detail at our full-year results in March. But two examples, one is the new shower toilet, Alba, which we have also presented at the Capital Market Day, the entry-level shower toilets, toilet for the European market. And secondly, we will launch a new SuperTube application for the European market. That's an application for the drainage, pipe systems category, which will be an important growth driver for our pipe business.
There will be more innovations that we'll talk about at the full year result.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Elodie Rall from Société Générale. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to know, could you actually already give us an indication of what was the January trading?
We don't want to talk about the January trading. You know, these are about 10 trading days now. That's too short, and I thought we should not talk about this very volatile environment. That doesn't make sense.
No worries. Just maybe circling back to the previous question on Q4. Back when you talked about the trends of October, you actually mentioned there was a slight increase in organic growth, but the conclusion of Q4 is that there was probably a strong increase in November and December. So I just wanted to really understand, what have you seen in November and December, which is different to what you saw in October?
There's nothing specific to read into the dynamics within Q4, so I would say we have not observed any specific observations between October, November, or December. Nothing special to note.
Okay, and maybe lastly, on, I know it's a bit early on to talk about margins for 2024, but you gave quite a few things here regarding wage inflation, marketing costs, but also you, you fleshed out the pricing being stable in 2024. So should we assume that 2023 margins should come down in 2024?
As you know, we will only provide a guide for the margin with our H1 result. Therefore, I can't give you an answer to this question.
But there is no cost-saving measures that you're doing to offset what you've provided today, is that, is that right?
No, that's as last year, we don't have any cost-saving programs in place. The key word here is operational flexibility. That is what is important, but we have no specific top-down cost-saving measures in place. Not at all. On contrary, we want to further invest into the business. As we said in our introduction, we want to extend some of our operational expenditures in the area, not cut costs.
Perfect. Thank you very much. Have a good day.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Martin Hüsler from ZKB. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. The first one is, why are you optimistic that the shift from heating to, actually from sanitary to heating is slowing down for this year?
So that's what we are saying is we do not expect additional pressure from this shift, because last year, obviously there was a shift that led to negative pressure on our business, and we do not expect further headwinds from this trend. So that is what we are saying. That will continue this trend, obviously, but it will not worsen, if you want to use this word, compared to last year.
Okay, but isn't the fact that in Germany, your most important market, the whole heating regulations last year led to kind of a postponement of installing heat pumps, and probably this will be more than the case for this year, which then could kind of challenge this assumption that-
Mm-hmm.
the heating will be slowed down?
... Yeah, I think what was special last year, there was a high volatility within the quarters for heating solutions. So there was strong first half of the year, then we have heard Q3 again, it was very relatively low, and Q4 was strong again. So this volatility, that was a driver, which we believe will be more stable this year, and in average, more or less, it should be than what we have seen last year. But we don't know exactly what will happen. We don't have the crystal ball, obviously, but that is also what we have heard a little bit from our wholesalers, that they expect a certain stabilization of this demand on a higher level, obviously, for heating solutions.
Okay, thank you. And maybe my second question to Germany, and obviously the building permit situation was very weak, as you were mentioning. If you talk to wholesalers and installers in general, I mean, how optimistic or what are their take for this year? Are they all very negative because of this new construction slowdown? And do you think that the renovation part, yes, it's more important for you, might compensate the downturn in new construction in general, or would you expect overall construction market to be down?
Talking about Germany specifically, we do not believe that the renovation segment in Germany will compensate the decline in the new build sector in the German market. Secondly, that is also confirmed by the sentiment overall in Germany, by plumbers, also by wholesalers, which is overall, for the building construction industry, more negative and not positive also for this year.
Okay, thanks a lot.
Welcome.
The next question comes from Yassine Touahri, from On Field Investment Research. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Two question. My first question would be on the, on the outlook for volume. So you're suggesting that we could see a decline in, volume of 20% in new build, in new build, which is 40% of your business. Does it mean that everything else being equal, we could see, 8% decline in volume in 2024? That would be my first question. And then my second question is on energy. What we see is that electricity costs are still, are still coming down, gas prices are quite low. Do you expect, a positive impact of lower energy costs, in 2024?
The first question, you're right. If you make the simple math that the volumes are down for new build by 20%, and, all the rest renovation is, is stable, then obviously volumes overall for the market will be down -8%, talking about the market. What will happen with our volumes, we do not give any outlook for that at this point in time. As you know, we do that only with H1 results. Obviously, we wanna gain market share. The second question with regards to energy costs, we do not have a lot of visibility on the energy costs because we don't have any hedged part, so we are exposed fully to the spot prices. At the moment, the situation has stabilized, energy prices came down Q on Q, and we don't know exactly what will happen into 2024.
I can't give you a prediction here.
At the current price, would you expect, if prices remain where they are, would you expect a slightly positive impact?
Assuming that energy prices stay stable at the level where they are at the moment, they will be slightly below the average level of 2023.
Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Arnaud Lehmann from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good morning, gentlemen. My first question is a follow-up on the volume decline in 2023, the -13%. When you look back, are you able to give us an order of magnitude of what was the destocking, and what was underlying markets, to help us figure out, you know, what the upcoming impact of the pressure on building permits?
What's the question? When or
The split in the -13% volume pressure.
Yes.
Do you know what was destocking, and what was pressure in underlying markets?
Understood. No, unfortunately, we do not know. We can't split that. But a fair share obviously was destocking, but we don't know exactly how much, because we don't have any quantitative indications about the stocking levels of wholesalers. Sorry, I can't give you a more precise answer.
Okay, thank you. And my second question is on pricing. I think you're talking about stability for 2024. More specifically thinking of bathroom systems, where you've had relatively weak sales, including in the fourth quarters. Energy, as you mentioned, is still relatively low. Do you see risk of a bit of price erosion in bathroom systems, considering it's a somewhat more fragmented part of your business?
At the moment, we do not have any indications or do not see any risks that we would be forced to decrease prices in bathroom systems. So the short answer is no.
Thank you. A quick last one, for the piping system, do you give the share of FlowFit in the mix of sales?
Unfortunately, we do not provide this figure, I'm sorry, due to competitive reasons. But it is a substantial share of piping systems, and especially, a substantial share of supply piping systems.
Thank you so much.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Christian Arnold from Stifel Schweiz. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. First question on shower toilet. Do I recall correctly that this year, with 2023, you have not grown with shower toilets on the back of high comps?
Correct.
So kind of flattish development?
It was a decline. It was a decline, but what is important, compared to 2019 levels, volumes were still substantially above 2019 level. Because we have, as you know, strongly benefited during COVID-19. From these peak high volumes, we have been declining, but compared to 2029, 2019, sorry. Compared to 2019, we are still substantially above this level.
Okay. Thinking about the Alba launch in probably in spring, would you expect double-digit growth again for 2024 in that product category?
That's very hard to predict because obviously, the market is even more important than our new shower toilet. As you know, especially if you talk about sales, the Alba price point obviously is lower. I don't want to forecast the volume development for shower toilet this year yet.
Okay. In the outlook comment, you talked about a more robust Switzerland, with weak new construction in Northern Europe and Germany for this year. I think that is what you talked about, new construction, right? Could you also give us your view on the renovation, where renovation would be stronger in which areas than in others?
This is very difficult because as you know, we have much less or almost no indicators for the renovation business, so it's hard to have a clear view on that. At least there's maybe one or two markets which are conventional due to specific reasons. For example, Italy, we believe renovation should be, maybe compared to other countries, more robust or even better than other renovation sectors in other countries due to specific subsidy programs. Maybe the same is true for France, where the renovation business is maybe better than in other countries. But apart from that, it's quite hard to give you a clear view, because as I said, there's a lack of indicators for the renovation business.
Okay. And the last question, maybe on the strategic growth initiatives which you presented at the Capital Market Day, and today you were talking specifically about selected growth market or selected, initiatives and selected growth markets outside of Europe. Could you give us here some more insight?
Yes. These are two, three initiatives which are concentrated on specific countries, for example, in Egypt or Saudi Arabia, where we are using the existing product portfolio. For example, SuperTube or also the newly launched Alpha concealed system a couple of years ago, to penetrate these markets better, basically by building up the sales force and also the marketing efforts in these two mentioned markets.
Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Martin Flückiger from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my question. I've got two, and I'll start off with the expected impact from the new depreciation law for new builds in Germany. I think it's called Wachstumschancengesetz in German. Could you elaborate a little bit on what your expectations are with regards to these changes in depreciation rules for new builds in Germany and whether you think it's gonna have an impact on your business? That's my first question, and I'll follow up with a second one.
We do not expect that there is a material impact of this new regulation on our business.
Sorry, how come?
We do not expect that there is a material impact of this regulation on our business.
Okay, but, you know, from what I've been reading, there are commentators out there that believe that it could, and, of course, also based on the name of that new law, you know, that it could, boost growth for new builds in Germany, and still, you don't think it's gonna have an impact? So I'm wondering why.
You know, one major reason is we do not focus very much on whatever regulators are doing or whatever subsidy products might come, because it's also a risk for a company if you manage and have too much focus with your company on these regulations. As we have seen last year, for example, for the heating sector, which then drives maybe your wishes and your expectations, and then it turns out to be completely different. Therefore, in general, we do not pay a lot of attention on whatever regulation is doing, be it in Germany and other markets. If there is a positive effect, we are happy to take it, but we are not focusing too much on these regulations.
Okay, got it. Thanks so much. Then my second question is on, was a little bit quick for me, sorry about that. It's a clarification question on what you've been talking about regarding these incremental OpEx of around CHF 30 million this year. Sorry, could you, could you just repeat what you expect to, on what you expect to, to spend these CHF 30 million on again? I think it was marketing and what else?
Yes. There may be three elements. One is growth initiatives in the emerging markets. The two examples I gave before, Egypt or Saudi Arabia, where we increased the sales force and then specific marketing efforts. The second one is in general increasing marketing spending for two main topics. One is the introduction of Alba, where we want to increase our marketing efforts and also our 150th anniversary this year. Geberit will be 150 years old this year. Therefore, we will have a lot of customer events and also partner events to celebrate this 150th anniversary. Obviously, that this comes with costs. And the third element of this CHF 30 million is increased spending for IT and digitalization.
Perfect. Thank you so much.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Christoph Dolleschal from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning. Thanks for the questions. First of all, I'd start with a clarification on stable sales prices. So does that mean that your regular annual 1.5% price increase in April will not happen?
Correct.
Okay. Then you also talked about Germany and renovation not being able to compensate new builds. Is that also an assumption that you would say would hold for the entire group, i.e., that in 2024 you don't think renovation will be able to compensate new builds?
No, I talked, I talked about the market in Germany, not about Geberit, but the same, I would say, is true for Europe as a whole. If in Europe, new build is down 20%, although new build might be a little bit high, maybe even a little bit higher share than Geberit, this will not be... renovation will not be able to compensate this minus 20% of new build.
Okay, thanks. And then basically, I mean, your outlook, at least from the renovation side, looks mildly positive, as you've just said. And one of the triggers you are stating is an expectation of declining interest rates. I know that there's a million voices in the market, some arguing fast declines, others six decrease, and so on and so forth. Just my question is like, what is your underlying assumption interest rate cuts and also interest rate levels?
We don't have a clear view on that. As you said, there are many views out there. The only view we have, that's basically the market view, which we share, that there should have some interest rate cuts this year, and that most probably will trigger, hopefully, some projects, maybe which are already prepared, which is waiting for lower financing costs to then be implemented. But we don't have, we don't have a specific interest rate curve for the year built into our models because we are not putting a lot of effort on this macroeconomic forecasting.
Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from George Maycock from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Morning. Thanks for taking my question. So just on the outlook, and pricing specifically, your comments on stable pricing, is that net of discounts and rebates, or after those are realized, could pricing actually be down year on year? And then just in addition, can you quantify what the discounts and rebates were in 2023 and where those come through on the income statement?
This means that we did not increase prices on a list price list level, and we expect that we also are able to keep rebates and bonuses on the same level. In other words, we expect also the net price level, that there should be no impact.
Okay, so net pricing is stable, but not down?
That's what we expect. Yes, correct.
Okay, thanks. And then just one follow-up on some of the previous questions, just to make sure I'm clear. When you talk about robust demand and renovation, does that mean volumes up year on year?
No, not necessarily. Robust means that it's more robust than new build, doesn't mean necessarily that the renovation sector as a whole in Europe is supposed to grow. It can be around zero, slightly below, maybe slightly above, but definitely not as weak or not in a decline as new build. That is the meaning of the word robust.
Okay. Super clear. That's it for me. Thanks for your time.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Remo Rosenau from Helvetische Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you. You mentioned that there has not been any restocking with wholesalers. At the same time, there also have not been any pre-buying effects, right? Because as there are no price increases anywhere, there was no reason to pre-buy. So because in some years there have been sometimes pre-buying effects, so also no pre-buying effects as to your knowledge, right?
Correct.
Okay. Then the second question in Germany, with the plumbers and the installers, how long is the order backlog in terms of weeks by now? According to my notes from a year ago, at that time, it was around 16, 17 weeks. Has that also due to the heat pump issue at the time, which is being debated right now, has this calmed down by now? What is this backlog with plumbers?
It came down. At the moment, the backlog is at 13.5 weeks, so roughly 15% lower than a year ago. That confirms what I said before. Overall, there is a negative sentiment in the German building materials market.
Okay. Could you tell us what was the historical usual backlog in terms of weeks, you know, in normal times before we had-
Yeah
COVID and then all these problems?
I just can remember two years ago, also in winter, because there's always a seasonality to this number. Two years ago, we have to be more or less the same level as we are right now in terms of order backlog of plumbers. I can't remember 2019, but, it's pretty much sure that was lower pre-COVID, this order backlog, than the 13.5 weeks at the moment.
Okay. Okay. So, but that means that the activities of the plumbers were a bit higher than the underlying market demand?
Sorry, can you-
Yeah, when the order backlog is reducing-
Yep.
They, you know, work on old orders, and less new orders come in. So, you know, the demand from the plumbers is basically a bit higher than the underlying demand in the markets. You know what I mean?
Yes, that might be associated also to the topic of the heating solution, because as I said before, that is not going away, obviously, that stays in our assumption, at least on a similar level as what we have seen last year. There's a lot of volatility last year throughout the year, but that might be a reason why the plumbers specifically have still more work to do compared to the general building construction industry in Germany.
Okay. Good. Thank you.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Patrick Rafaisz from UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning. A follow-up on the piping business in Q4. I realize you don't want to comment on the size of the FlowFit business, but if we would exclude the penetration and share gains with FlowFits in Q4, would the growth at constant currency have been more comparable to bathroom systems? Is that a fair assumption?
I don't, didn't do the math, to be honest. I can't give you an answer. I didn't do the math. Sorry.
Okay. And, a follow-up again, sorry for that, on pricing. All very clear, you said about the 2024. Just one clarification, is the assumption correct that there's no further carryover effects from prices in 2023 into 2024? So that's also zero.
This is correct, because the last price increase, which we implemented, was January 2023. With an extraordinary one, it pulled forward, so to say, the normal one, it was around 1.5%. Therefore, we do not expect any carryover for 2024. You're right.
Good. Thanks. And the last question, just, some thoughts on the 2024 margin. So you will not do any price increases, you will have additional OpEx for growth investments, but input costs will be coming down. Are lower input costs netting out the 30% higher OpEx? Or if your margins will go up further, would you then just simply increase your OpEx spend to maintain margins within the 28%-30% range? Is that the way to think about it? Or would you consider lowering prices to maintain the margin within the range?
Two answers. Number one is, if you talk about input costs, I guess you talk about raw material costs.
Yes.
If raw material costs would stay where they are at the moment, then we would have overall a positive effect because they will be lower in 2024 compared to the average of 2023. And the second thing is, we have a mid-term margin, a mid-term margin guidance of 28%-30%. It doesn't mean that this is a guidance for every single year, as you know. Mid-term, we don't want to have margins above 30%. Whenever we see the potential, we want to take the money and invest it into the business. But this is not an indication, the 28%-30% for our margin 2024. As usual, we will provide the guidance then with our H1 results for this year.
Okay, understood. Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Martin Becker, from Raiffeisen Bank. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question. I have one on the material prices. How much shelving do you see from lower energy and raw material prices? Can they compensate the wage inflation for the year 2024?
Unfortunately, I can't give you a precise answer because we are not hedging raw material energy prices, so we are exposed to the spot prices. We don't know, obviously, for this reason, where the raw material prices will be overall in 2024. The only thing we know is more or less what happens in the next quarter, that will be slightly down. And the same is true for energy, as I explained before, we do not hedge at all, so we are exposed to spot prices. Therefore, I can't tell you what if that will be possible to compensate wage inflation or not.
Thank you.
You're welcome.
Thank you for the answer.
The next question comes from Christian Arnold, from Stifel Schweiz. Please go ahead.
Yes, follow-up on the pricing. You're guiding for stable pricing for 2024. I think that's for the group, right? So thinking about the Swiss franc strength, is there a risk that you actually have to lower prices in Switzerland selectively?
So we also did not increase prices or decrease prices in Switzerland for this year, because what we did over the last two years, the price increases were lower compared to group to address the issue, as you said rightly, with the currencies. At the moment, we do not see any pressure or risk to do any specific pricing actions in Switzerland.
Okay. Second question would be on the dividend. Back in 2009, I think you paid an extraordinary anniversary dividend. I think it was for 10 years of listing. Now you have a 150th anniversary for Geberit. Can we have, or can we expect another anniversary dividend?
Actually, it's the decision of the board of directors, obviously, but we did not have discussions around such a topic so far. To be honest, I don't think that something like that will happen. We just see if the number is important, obviously, where the dividend should be, but I don't think that we will take this 150 anniversary as an occasion to do something specific around the dividend. But it is the decision of the board of directors, obviously.
Thank you.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Stephanie Antezak from Mirabaud Securities. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. You said that you are going to increase your OpEx. Would you also expect an increase in CapEx due to the new shower toilet? Does this change anything on your CapEx plan, or can we expect it to be around 5% for 2022 or to also 2024?
No, we expect CapEx to be stable at around CHF 200 million, as, as last year.
Okay, and then maybe another question. While you're always increasing automation, but you're also increasing sales, would you expect that your headcounts in absolute terms would they stay the same for the next years or even come down?
That, that depends very much on the volume development. We have decreased the headcount last year substantially, basically driven by plants and logistics, very decreased headcounts of temporary employees, maybe. And that was saved by the volume. So that will depend on the volume development in 2024.
Okay. Thank you.
You're welcome.
Gentlemen, so far, there are no more questions from the phone.
Questions? There are no further questions. Thank you for the participation. We wish you all a great day. Goodbye.