Good morning from my side. It's a pleasure to host this conference call at a short notice. Thanks to all of you who have been able to free up your agendas and participate in this call. Sitting next to me here is Adalbert Lechner, our Group Chief Executive Officer, and also Stefan Heid, our Head of Investor Relations. We don't have a formal presentation for today. The idea is really to give you the chance to ask questions, of course, because this ad hoc news has been a bit of a surprise for all of you. We just want to be available for all types of questions. With that, I am handing over back to you, Valentina, so we can start with the questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you've entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Questioners on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question comes from Joern Iffert from UBS. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Just to double-check, can you hear me?
Yes.
Very good. Thank you very much for this. So two questions, if I may. The first one would be, please, how do you see the volume trends going into the second half, also linked to market shares? Do you see that your initiatives you have started with marketing promotions are showing any benefits already? This would be please the first question. The second question is on the regions. You mentioned Europe is a key area which is challenged, but how do you see also North America and rest of the world consumers reacting on chocolate and Lindt in the second half? Thank you.
Thank you, Mr. Iffert. Let me take this question. In fact, we see that the initiatives, and they were numerous, that we took to regain volume in the second half again, are showing benefits. For example, LINDOR, we were suffering, as mentioned, with the price increases, especially on higher priced, bigger SKUs. For the last three periods, we saw a recovery. We saw that we gained market share globally again, with different initiatives that we took. Price pack architecture, we were pushing harder, smaller items with price points below critical thresholds. Partly, we were correcting price points also, for example, here in Switzerland. This was one initiative. In Switzerland, the last NielsenIQ period showed a volume growth of 8% + for the first time. We had negative volume up to now.
With the price adjustments that we took as of August, we saw increasing volume again. In Germany, the market with the biggest headaches at the moment, we saw with the price adjustments, with price pack architecture, positive volume growth, significant volume growth on LINDOR, on EXCELLENCE, and also on assorted praline. Unfortunately, and that is the reason why we had to correct our guidance, the four months heat wave in Europe were costing us more than, of course, that we had factored in. It was the hottest summer since temperature recording, since 1867. We hope that it does not repeat now every year, even if we are aware that summers might become hotter in the future.
But also here, we are confident that in 2027, we will cycle against an extraordinary summer, which hit us not only in wholesale, but especially also in our retail stores, where the traffic declined substantially. To your question, yes, we do see a turnaround. We see even a swing from negative to significantly positive. But it is not enough to achieve our original guidance in this year. But it makes me confident that we will go with a strong momentum on volume growth into 2027. What is also worthwhile mentioning is that we established the second round of price increases last year in September, and we saw for the first time a volume decline as of beginning mid of October. Only as of October, we will cycle also against a period with comparable price points and with weaker volume development.
To your second question, regions, we see so far a robust growth in North America, not only on Lindt, but especially also Ghirardelli with a very good development. Russell Stover, they have launched also a Lindt Dubai Style Chocolate product, and we have mentioned it already half year at a very good momentum, and they will also show growth for the full year. Rest of the world, certainly a bit of a mixed basket. Of course, we are exposed to the situation in Middle East, and we will suffer, of course, from this development, not only in the region, so U.A.E., Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, et cetera. We see a decline there. Domestic consumption is decreasing. Tourism is lagging at all. We see also an impact on our duty-free business.
And of course, as we mentioned, the consumer sentiment that we feel across the globe and mainly here in Europe, is of course heavily impacted by the war in Ukraine and the increased fuel prices. But still, in the Asian markets, China, Japan, but also Australia, India, we see strong growth, and that is partly even above our expectations. The reason also for this correction is mainly the weakness in Europe.
If I can add here, as you have also written in the communication, what has changed since July are really two things, right? The heat wave, we are not able to offset it, because number one, it takes longer in Europe than we anticipated. August and a big part of September in many parts of Europe, it is still very hot and has an impact on our sales. Then the second one is really the fact that we now see from retail partners in especially the German-speaking countries in Europe, that the order volumes are lower than what we thought two months ago.
For seasonal products.
For seasonal products. That is important, yes. The combination of those two have a negative impact of 2%-3% on our net sales for this year. That is really the driver of the need to go out at this point in time, also from a legal point of view. Yes, and have this new guidance out.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Jon Cox from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello. Can you hear me okay?
Yes.
Okay, good morning, guys. I am really trying to square the circle just in terms of, you are talking about this volume improvement you are seeing now in Switzerland and Germany through these actions. Is that because the net price that you actually have experienced now is so negative that even with the volume growth, then basically, you are getting sort of a very poor organic sales growth? That is the first question. The second part is really, the sell-in into the Christmas period and seasonal gifting. Can you just talk us through that? Because I know last year, volumes were under a load of pressure in Germany as well, and I think most of us assume the comparables, at least in volume terms, would be a little bit easier for you as we entered into the end of the year.
And maybe just to add to another one, if you are saying that pricing is stable overall, but you are seeing this volume pick up, why are you not giving any guidance for 2027 at this point? Thank you.
Should I start with Christmas or do you want to?
Let me start with.
Thank you.
I understand your question. You say it is a discrepancy once I describe volume improvement. Is the pricing so negative that we do not hit the guidance? First of all, the volume improvements kicked in relatively late. I spoke about the latest NielsenIQ period, the same in Germany. Half year, of course, started in July. Secondly, yes, we see the volume improvement mainly driven where we did price adjustments, so it came with a negative price effect. Thirdly, of course, Europe is more than Switzerland and Germany. I picked these two examples now because they were in the spotlight, because here we saw also the biggest volume decline. Overall, I think for the second half, we can expect a significant improvement of the volume development.
In first half, you remember we had a - 7.5% volume development. Our expectation is that in the second half, we will get close to stabilization, probably not fully. This is depending now on the months to come. Your question to seasonal orders, where you said also last year, we saw already weak volumes. Yes, this is why also we expected that we can at least expect the same volume. However, with the weak sell-through at Easter and also last year, despite the fact that we addressed pricing for hollow figures and for seasonal products, the retailers are very cautious because they are also very much under pressure. We know that the margins of retailers suffer severely with the improvement of private label, with the shift to discounters, et cetera.
They said they are more interested to bring down now their remnants and to increase the sell-through than taking the full potential of the seasonal business. They also promised us and said, "If we see a good sell-through in this Christmas season, we will be more offensive or more aggressive next year in our orders." That is the situation now.
I think that is the important thing, Jon, to distinguish between the everyday products, where we see NielsenIQ performance and where we see certain improvements, for example, in Switzerland. The other one is the Christmas business, which is to go, where it is not even on the shelves. The retailers, they buy this now, basically, they order it now. Because the volume was poor last Christmas, they do not want to take the risk to order the same quantities in Switzerland or in Germany as last year, last Christmas. They order less quantity. Therefore, we already know that we will not reach the same net sales for Christmas as we did last year, even though last year was poor. Now the positive is because the volume is lower, we believe we will have a very good sell-through, and that should then lead to higher orders in 2027.
That's the dynamic. I do not know if it is clear like this or clearer.
Well, I think the question is really where is pricing? Because you were doing selective cuts in different parts of the market. But now it seems that the cuts are so aggressive that this is going to offset volume growth.
No, it will still be slightly positive, actually, pricing in H2.
Yeah.
Low single-digit pricing H2. You can do the math yourself. If low single-digit pricing, and if we are 2% growth for the full year in this guidance of zero to two, it would mean that we would be flat in the second half, more or less, in net sales, which would mean that volumes would be, let us say, more or less as negative as the price is positive. So if it is price of low single digit plus, volumes would be low single digit minus. And in a scenario of zero, then the volume would be a bit more negative, but still considerably better than the -7.5% of H1. So we see a positive trend. The positive trend takes a bit more time because of the heatwave and because the retailers are ordering less than last year in Germany or Switzerland.
Then into 2027, in terms of pricing, what your thoughts are at this stage?
In 2027, the difference to 2026 is, as you know, our hedging policy, we did not have a wide-scale or broad-scale relief on cocoa, but we will have next year. Our clear strategy is that a part of this relief will be invested in price adjustments, but another part will be invested in brand support, because we clearly believe that we have to create consumer pull also in a situation where prices have generally increased in the category. Yes, you can expect price adjustments on a broad scale in 2027.
Negative pricing.
Too early to.
In 2027.
2027.
It is too early to give a guidance for 2027 for net sales because all depends on the elasticity. How will the volumes now What is the exit rate in December or November on the volumes, and what do we foresee for 2027? We are very positive that we will be positive, but the question is how positive the volume will develop, and pricing-
And the margin?
Margin?
Yeah.
And-
Yeah, the margin for next year, 2027, is 20-40 basis points, or you have scrapped the margin guidance for next year?
Yeah, because we don't want to have to correct it later. That doesn't mean that we will be below the 20- 40 basis points. It depends a bit how to reinvest this cocoa. For 2028 and beyond, it is 20- 40 basis points. For 2027, we have no official guidance, but that doesn't mean that we are below the 20- 40 basis points.
Understood. Thanks very much.
Thank you.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question comes from Tom Sykes from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Yeah, morning. Just firstly, on the price negotiations for Easter next year, when are those normally concluded? We spoke about it earlier, Martin, but is there more variability potential on the pricing? How linked is it to the performance of sell-out over Christmas this year compared to previous years? My understanding on the seasonal product was that you would normally sell in about 80% of the volume, and then there would be top-ups as and when people ordered more or not. Just trying to understand, is the current guidance set assuming some further sell-in, obviously, and sort of top-up of inventories? What is the assumption of seasonal lifting growth in H2 that goes into the 0%- 2%, please?
Let me start with the second part of your question. In fact, the pre-orders of seasonal business, I would say, are more in the area of 90%, and that the so-called top-ups, as you call it, if rotation is good, is normally very weak. I would say today we have a clear or a good picture of the Christmas orders in the group, and we assumed the same amount of top-ups that we have in other years because all these products are pre-produced. To understand the business, the Christmas business as well as the Easter business, the sell-out takes place more or less in the last three weeks of the season. By the time you know how strong your sell-out is, you cannot start to produce hollow figures or whatever. You really have to take an assumption.
It has to be on stock, and this is the only way that you can top up. If the orders are as weak as they are right now, there is really no chance to correct it with top-ups if you not want to speculate and sit in on inventories, which we do not plan to do. The other question was price negotiations. To be honest, is there a bigger variability due to sell-out? No, because the sell-in of Easter is happening right now. For example, in Germany. I think in Switzerland it is already done. It is not dependent on the sell-out of Christmas. What can be done for Easter is there is still time to go. If the sell-out of Christmas would be better than our retailers assume, we can still place orders to ramp up the Easter orders because there is time enough to still produce.
That is the difference to the Christmas business. The price negotiations are independent from sell-out rates. That is also not a big concern, to be honest, the price negotiations. I think the retailers also trust that we have learned also from the elasticity that we have experienced. We corrected on the hollow figures for critical products, the price points. Yeah, and then it is about the trust of retailers, how much they also believe that rotation will increase and how big the orders are that they place. For this Christmas, we had different assumptions than what they ordered. I hope that for Easter, this will be more in line.
Thank you. If I could just ask a follow-up. Does the current conditions change your view on the timing or scale of innovations that you are launching, the city-based chocolate, the rollout of the retail network? Is the current environment leading, there are some headlines on flagship stores, but in a more aggregate level, is it leading to a change in the timing and size of those at all, please?
You refer to our city style range. We should not forget the Lindt Dubai Style Chocolate was a social media hype. We were fully aware if we capitalize on this trend, that we also have to expect that this hype will show a kind of a fade. We mitigated this expected fading of the original hype by extending the range, by launching new flavors, which are also trending, like LINDOR Matcha or now coming with ube. What we clearly learned, we increased our relevance and our brand equity, especially in the younger target group, where we have been historically and traditionally weak. We found this target group suddenly in our retail stores, which was not the core target so far.
Still, I do not tell a secret, the Lindt Dubai Style Chocolate is still one of our strongest tablets, not only in retail but also in wholesale when it is present there. With all these measures, we could protect pretty well the incremental sales that we generated in the first year, where it was more or less a hype. If you refer to the high price points, of course, we are also cautious in which cadence we bring now new flavors.
I think it is a different game in our retail stores, where you really have the Lindt fans and those people who are consciously and, let us say, it is like a destination, also looking for specialties. So there is the preparedness to pay higher prices, certainly higher than in wholesale. For example, ube will not be launched in wholesale. It is a pure launch in our own retail environment and stores.
Okay. Many thanks indeed. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Feng Zhang from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking the question. You mentioned that cocoa as a tailwind for next year. Could you help to quantify the potential benefits? Also, given the recent rebound in cocoa prices, how should we think about impact on 2027? Thank you.
Okay. Number one, let's say, we don't quantify exactly the benefits. On cocoa butter, which is, let's say, the result of cocoa butter ratio times the cocoa future price. We have had some benefits this year because the cocoa butter ratio, when you buy cocoa butter, you have to fix the cocoa butter ratio and the cocoa futures. The cocoa futures we had already bought quite some time ago at good levels. The cocoa butter ratio, we still kept open for quite some time, and we were able to buy this considerably better than what we had budgeted originally. That's why we get some tailwinds now in H2 from cocoa butter. Cocoa beans and cocoa butter, we also have significant benefits in the future because the cocoa market has come down, but we cannot, of course, quantify this right now because some of it will have an impact in 2027.
Some of it may also have an impact in 2028. The cocoa market has gone up, as you rightly say, back up. It was at 10,000 in London, after having been for a long time at 2,000, and then it came down to more or less 2,500, and it went back up to roughly 4,500. It is more or less where we expected it to be now. We always communicated as well that we expect cocoa bean price to be somewhere between 3,500 and 5,000. When we did our pricing strategy over the last three years in these unprecedented times from a cocoa perspective, we never made the assumption that cocoa will be back down to 1,800 in the long run.
We always assumed that whilst it may not stay at 10,000, it will be rather at around 4,000- 5,000, as I mentioned. Our whole pricing strategy was also basically laid out for that, to also still have positive EBIT margins going forward and being able to invest in advertising, et cetera. There will be now a relief, some sort of relief in 2027 because we have been able to buy at good levels, but we cannot publish how much this is, neither do we publish how long we are hedged.
Thank you.
Once again, to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question comes from Sam Darbyshire from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Can I just start by asking about how you are thinking about your innovation pipeline over the next 18 months? The reason I ask this is just that we can see there is a huge amount of innovation coming through from competitors around different flavors, different formats, different price points across both seasonal and normal purchasing periods. Thinking about this environment, which seems to be becoming much, much more aggressive in terms of that competitive intensity, how are you thinking about your own plans going forward?
The biggest innovation still will be the rollout of our Choco Wafer range. As you know, we launched this Choco Wafer range in three test markets with limited capacity as we sourced it externally. We are on the way to finish the factory in Italy, and I think in one month's time, the production line will be installed so that as of beginning of next year, we have enough capacity to roll out the Choco Wafer launch globally. We did it already in autumn now here in Switzerland with, I would say, an impressive success. Germany will be the next country following soon. That is for sure an important launch for us in innovation because we enter an adjacent category where we have not been participating so far. It is also a product which is a bit more heat resistant than our filled LINDOR balls.
We feel confident that this will be a key cornerstone for our future growth. When you mention flavors, I think this is for sure one of our strengths. We offer 22 different flavors of LINDOR balls in our pick and mix bar in the retail store, and of course, there is constant renovation and innovation required. For example, this Christmas, we are out with LINDOR Cinnamon Roll. LINDOR Cinnamon Roll is a very popular recipe out there. We launched LINDOR Golden Caramel in the beginning of the year, also with remarkable success. You mentioned also price points. Of course, we are also working on a new packaging design with lower price points addressing. We launched a four-ball LINDOR impulse product for the convenience channel recently with good success.
But we also came out with 137 g LINDOR Cornet, for example, especially also for markets in the distributor business where the purchasing power is lower, et cetera. I did not analyze now the cadence of the innovation pipeline of our competitors, but so far, I would not say that I recognized a significant change there. We are used to be in a competitive environment. We play in, I would say, anyhow, in our premium market, in a bit of separate league. We feel also the specialty of our recipes we launched in dark chocolate now. We have a full range, up to 100% cocoa. There are not too many brands in this category. We have 99%. We have 85%. We launched all these versions also in a mild version. We launched those percent plus flavor.
Categories, we are, I would say, have a relative exclusive product range, and the innovation pipeline is not different to what we have in the past year, with the exception that we are probably a bit more bold entering new categories like the wafer category.
Okay. That's really helpful. Thank you.
Great.
Just in terms of how retailers are reacting to those innovations versus historically, have you seen any shift in their appetite for new innovations in terms of, is there any kind of pull from them in what they're looking for, or how much they're looking for brand new products to be going on the shelf?
In fact, the retailers have a very strong appetite for innovation. In the meantime, in every country, they ask us, "What is new, and could I have something exclusive?" We even have to push back a little bit here because we also don't want to increase the complexity of our business. We really want to make sure that they focus on the core range and they focus on the core flavors also not to confuse our consumers.
Sorry, just to clarify, in terms of the
Yeah
The exclusive ranges, is that still a thing that the retailers are still really pushing for in 2026 and 2027?
That is what we experienced, for example, now, in Switzerland, the Choco Wafer product was launched exclusively in Coop. Also in the U.S., we know from big customers that they always ask us, "Do you have any flavor that I could have ahead of competition?" So that is, in fact, retailers are heavily pushing for innovation.
That is really helpful. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Martin Hug for any closing remarks.
Just in case there are anybody who wants to ask a second question, if you have already asked, or a second round of questions, if you have asked questions already, I do not know if there is anybody else before we close?
We actually have two questions, and one comes from Pierre Tegner from Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.
Hello. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Just maybe a longer-term question. What are the key elements that make you quite confident on the capacity to continue to achieve the 6%-8% organic growth beyond 2027? Behind this question, you have been clearly very successful over the last 25 years, gaining shares on the non-premium and within the premium, gaining shares on the other players. But are you thinking about a new growth algorithm for the long term, having in mind the very high comparison basis over the last 25 years?
Let me take this question. I think it is important to understand what gave us this disruption of our long-term success story. In 50 years, the cocoa price has never been higher than, I think, GBP 3,000 . It was the last time in the 1970s when it spiked one time to GBP 3,000 , and then for 40 years we saw a cocoa price hovering around GBP 1,700 . This means that we were never forced to increase. The underlying consumer trend of premiumization, plus our geographical expansion, was driving our growth story. Four years ago, the cocoa inflation kicked in. We were forced to increase prices significantly. As you know, it was in the ballpark of 30%-40% cumulated in the last years.
In combination with a consumer sentiment that is historically low, with an inflation, with all these affordability discussions, with fuel prices every day in the newspaper, et cetera. With the insecurity also of geopolitical tensions that people also did not experience for many decades. For the first three years when we increased prices, we still did not see any major reaction. Volume was flat. The price increases translated nicely into sales growth. We grew a CAGR in the last four years of 10.8%. We also protected our margin, our EBIT increased by 50%, from CHF 650 million to CHF 1 billion. In this year, for the first time, we see that all these factors, the tremendously increased prices and the negative consumer sentiment, results in a sales performance where we are certainly not proud of.
What makes us confident that the long-term sales performance will get back to 6%-8%? First of all, we see that this sticker shock, that consumers had to get used to higher price points, seems to be digested. We see it because we saw, as I mentioned in the beginning, we see a return to positive volume development in key markets, and I am confident that this will continue. The underlying trend of premiumization is healthy and valid. We also see this. Our geographical expansion, I think is even accelerating. Only in this year, we reach out to many new markets. We are establishing new branches. We will open more than 70 new stores across the globe. We see that when opening new stores, we create brand awareness, we create brand equity, and we see then consumers also buying more in wholesale.
Our brand was voted as the most valuable chocolate brand in the world, increasing only from last year, from 2024- 2025, by 24% in brand value. We have a super healthy, strong brand. We see that all the factors that were driving the premiumization are still here and are still continuing. When this price shock is digested, and I would call it now price shock, I am confident that we will get back to the growth rates that we have seen in the past time. To give you one example, we generate 87% of our sales today in Europe and in North America. We only generate 13% in rest of the world, but this rest of the world stands for 38% of the chocolate market.
Here, we will harvest the benefits of all the investment and the seed that we bring out right now. This will be one driver of growth, and the other driver will be the premiumization trend that we have experienced in the established markets.
Thank you.
Sorry for the long answer.
Very useful. Thank you.
The next question is a follow-up from Jon Cox, Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes. Can you hear me okay?
Yes.
Yes. Actually, just to talk a little bit about structural pressures on the confectionery segment. We have seen data coming out, GLP-1s, maybe even confectionery even performs worse than, say, salty snacks. Are you concerned about that at all? That is the first question. Second one, you mentioned weak consumer sentiment, but there is this expectation that consumer may not be particularly positive for a while. There is a lot of different things going on in the world. The flip side is, you see that consumers will buy products provided that you are actually providing something for them, which they really want to consume or use, et cetera. So GLP-1s, any thoughts about that? Then secondly, just consumer mood generally. Let us assume the consumer mood continues as it is for the next few years. Do you think you have all the tools available to continue to grow at 6%-8%?
Thank you.
To the first point, GLP-1 is around now for several years, and we observe carefully the impact. Our takeaway is that consumers who want to lose weight and hence use these weight-losing drugs, are more mindful and more conscious in their calorie intake. What we see is that they show a clear shift to premium products because they still strive for indulgence, but want to consume less. So instead of mindless munching, as we call it, they go more for mindful indulgence, more indulgence per calorie, we say. We have analysis and market research data from the U.S. that have an overproportional share in households that use GLP-1. I would say this trend might even play into our benefit or into our cards, that those consumers who are more mindful go then for less, but better quality.
The second point, of course, I'm also aware that the consumer sentiment will probably not dramatically increase in 2027, and that's also not part of our assumptions. What we have learned is that there are critical price points and thresholds that we probably underestimated, let's say, in areas when the consumer sentiment was not that bad. As mentioned before, we will address with price pack architecture and with targeted price adjustments, this consumer sentiment. We have evidence also from the corrections that we did now, where we see that the volume swings from -10% to +20%, 30%, that we have the tools to work with and operate within this consumer sentiment. Plus, of course, the base is a different one in a year where consumer sentiment was record low.
Even if it would stay on this level with the measures implemented, I'm confident that we will see the needed volume growth.
Thank you.
We now have a question from Joern Iffert from UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for taking my two follow-up questions. The first one would be to zoom in again the second half 2026. Are you able to split what you expect in terms of organic sales growth in the seasonal products for the second half versus the non-seasonal? The second question would be, please, what are you currently observing in terms of market shares for the seasonal products for Christmas and even for Easter 2027? Do you see that you get less shelf space? Do you see you lose some market shares towards private label? Is your market share stable? What is your observation when you discuss this with the trade? Thanks a lot.
Let me start with the second question. I cannot give an answer to this because if you refer to the Easter business of last season, I can only speak to this, but for Christmas, I have no evidence how the orders from retailers are for our competitors or for private label. I can only speak for our orders. I would honestly guess that they are cautious in general, also for our competitors. Easter last season, for example, in Switzerland, we gained market share. The whole market has shown a weakness that we did not see so far, and I guess this will also level out. You remember this was in the light of a very strong bashing in media. Easter chocolate became so expensive, et cetera. I expect that this will repeat the opposite because we see price corrections.
If the media would pick up this topic in the same way, it should be beneficial and helpful. But I cannot speak for the upcoming Christmas and for the upcoming Easter. I do not know how our competitors experience their orders. For the first question, organic sales for seasonal and for non-seasonal business, I see that we and positive development on the everyday business, and we see a weakness in the seasonal business because this is not driven by consumer demand, but it is driven at the moment by the trust of our retail partners. We could not convince them that with our adjusted prices, rotation would increase that significantly, which I believe and which we believe. So we will see a stronger everyday business and a weaker seasonal business.
May I follow- up on this one? Would you expect that the Lindt sales on volumes to the consumer from the retailer in the Christmas business, would you expect this is positive and the sell-in to the retailer is negative because the comps are different? Or would you also say there is currently some uncertainty that to the consumer, the volumes maybe also could stay flattish or might be negative into the Christmas season?
It's a tough question, Mr. Iffert. You know why? Because when orders are lower, there is a saying in sales, volume sales. So I'm sure that the sell-through rate will be significantly better. I hope, and I see a chance that even the total volumes to consumers will be better than prior year. But sometimes it's not helpful if the volume on the POS and the presence of products on POS is reduced. It sometimes also leads them to reduce sellout. So we will see by the end of the season. My big hope is that volumes will be positive, that the sell-through rates are significantly better for the retailers, and their confidence in the orders for next year, accordingly, will be significantly better.
Thank you very much.
For any further questions, please press Star and one on your telephone. At the moment, there are no more questions from the phone.
Okay, let's close the call. Thanks a lot for attending Short Term. Let me quickly summarize. We have given a new guidance for 2026 of 0%-2%. As we said, H1 volume was -7.5%. H2, we are expecting a big improvement. We will not get to 0%, which was our assumption in summer, but we will get relatively close to 0% in H2. That is, I think, good news that we see such an improvement in H2. We have been hit by the heatwave. We have gotten less Christmas orders in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. I think the good news is we keep the EBIT margin target at 20-40 basis points driven by better cocoa bean prices, cost savings, and also some tariff refunds. Then for next year, let's bear in mind the heatwave is in the base.
Even if we have another hot summer next year, it should not be considerably negative for our sales because we have this in the base for 2027. Secondly, the Christmas orders, which are below our expectations in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. If we get to this good sell-through that Adalbert just mentioned, we should then get better orders in 2027. That will also be a volume boost for 2027. We are really positive about the 2027 volumes. The fact that we did not give an EBIT margin guidance for 2027 is intentional because we still want to go through all the budget, et cetera. This does not mean that we will not hit the 20-40 basis points, but we still want to confirm if it is 20-40 basis points or if it is even a bit higher, but we cannot confirm this right now.
There is no official guidance now for EBIT in 2027. Then as Adalbert said before, we are very confident about 2028 and beyond based on our strategy, based on the trend towards premiumization that still exists. From that viewpoint, we are still confident. Thanks a lot for your time. It is really appreciated, and please reach out to us if there is a need for any further answers to your questions. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Bye-bye.