Good afternoon, and good morning to everyone. This is Luca Borlini, Head of Nestlé Investor Relations. Thank you for joining the Q&A session for Nestlé's first half 2024 sales. With me today are Nestlé CEO, Mark Schneider, and CFO, Anna Manz. We have made available our prepared remarks at 7:00 A.M. Central European Time, together with our first half press release and presentation on the Nestlé Investor Relations website. I trust you have had all the time to review these materials and listen to the recording. Therefore, we can go straight to the question- and- answer session. Before we begin, please take note of our usual disclaimer. With that reminder given, let us begin the session. The line for questions from financial analysts is now open. Please remember to limit yourselves to no more than two questions, and the first question is from Jon Cox at Kepler.
Yeah, maybe before going into the question, Mark would like to start with a short introductory remarks.
Luca, thank you, and a warm welcome to our conference call participants. Let me just start out with a very brief set of remarks that we want to allow maximum time for questions and answer, and really just want to reiterate that we delivered a strong, real internal growth recovery based on strong execution and in line with what we said in Q1. As you know, real internal growth, the sum of volume and mix, is a very important metric to us. We call it the growth that is earned. It comes as a result of market share gains, volume growth, and also mix improvement due to premiumization, innovation. So all the things that are very important to us, and I think we delivered along those lines. That increase in real internal growth was broad-based across all zones and categories.
We continue to improve our market share, in particular, for Billionaire Brands and in e-commerce, where we're generating strong growth, momentum, and gaining share. And, we're managing price, obviously, in what is a tough consumer environment. We've made good progress in our Nestlé Health Science business. That swing was very important to us and sets us up for a strong second half in this business, where we're seeing now good category growth. And, in essence, what we're doing here is delivering for consumers, which is key, and, that is what we remain focused on. That's the Nestlé way. We manage the short term while building for the long term, for sustained growth and, sustained and profitable growth. So just want to remind everyone of those key messages, that hopefully came through in the recorded prepared remarks this morning.
With that, very much looking forward to your questions.
Thank you, Mark. So, Jon, please go ahead with your questions.
Yes, thank you very much. Jon Cox with Kepler. A question on this, the whole equation, the price and the volume mix or the RIG. It appears, to some people at least, that you've given up price to retailers in order to get volume, but you don't seem to be getting a lot of volume for what you're giving up in terms of the price. And obviously, it's a bit difficult for us to parse out what you're actually giving to the retailers and what is actually just that, you know, normalized pricing as the overall commodity costs have come down.
So anything you can give us on that, to reassure us that, you know, as we go through the year, you know, you just won't be cutting prices to drive volume, and get maybe then into a vicious circle where, you know, organic sales are really struggling to get back into your 4%-6% range because you're, you know, getting into this, a pretty tricky environment where you've given up pricing to drive the, the volume mix. That's the first question. Second question, your profitability, clearly better than expected. I just wonder what your thoughts are on the gross margin for the year, given the fact that some of those commodity costs are coming back, coffee, and cocoa. Thank you.
Thanks, John, and I suggest I share the answer to the first question with Anna, and then let Anna handle the second one. So look, it's very important that we do not overinterpret this snapshot here of Q2 2024, and now see that as the movie unfolding going forward. This is a very particular moment in time with some tricky year-over-year comparisons since we had taken price in some categories and geographies in Q2 last year. Also a moment in time where we're still seeing significant value-seeking behavior on the part of the consumer. There is stress, in particular at the low end of the income scale in North America, but also in select other geographies. And so people are value-seeking, and hence promotional intensity has been particularly strong.
As you know from past quarters, we were very much focused on getting the RIG flywheel running again, and I think that's very important for continued and sustained success. But we're in no mood here to buy a RIG going forward, so clearly RIG needs to be earned through compelling product and brand propositions going forward. So it's important that this particular moment in time doesn't get overinterpreted. Some of the promotional intensity is time-limited. A good example is Nestlé Health Science, where we had to promote more strongly as we're making product now increasingly available again, as we're trying to find our way back to shelf. This is an activity that's very much focused on Q2 and Q3 and will taper off afterwards.
For North America overall, for food and beverage, you've seen a lot of listing fees that go against pricing, as part of the innovation that we did roll out. So it's kind of the corollary, to the innovation that we're bringing to the marketplace. It's a good investment for future growth. So that's why if you see it as straight price to buy RIG, it is an oversimplified picture and doesn't do justice to the true situation.
Two very small builds. The way we think about pricing in a high promotional environment is that we manage our price gaps to our competitive set so that we stay competitive versus our competitive set. Secondly, as commodity prices move, we will look to take price if commodity prices go up. So that's on pricing. Maybe if I just turn to your question on gross margin. So yes, we have had a benefit in the first half as we've seen some favorable input cost prices. As we look out to the full year, that favorability will not continue quite as starkly as we've seen it in the first half, as we've got pressure on input costs from both coffee and cocoa that will come through in the second half. So margin will be lower in the second half.
The way I'd think about it is, as we sit today, consensus is largely in the right place for the group as a whole for the year.
So next question is from Guillaume Delmas at UBS. Please go ahead, Guillaume.
Thank you very much, Luca, and good afternoon, Mark and Anna. I have two questions. The first one is on the four businesses that in the past have been Nestlé's key growth engines, I mean, for both top line and bottom line, so pet care, coffee, nutrition, and Nestlé Health Science. Because even going back many years, I don't recall seeing such a low organic sales growth for the four businesses combined in one half, with I think none of them being in the 4%-6% range.
So my question here is, above and beyond the easy basis of comparison for Nestlé Health Science, in the second half, do you see a clear path for your growth engines to quickly return to that 4%-6% range, and ideally the top end of the range, because it will be difficult otherwise for Nestlé Group to return to that 4%-6%? So particularly on coffee and pet, if you see some green shoots, that would be interesting. And then my second question is on your decision to step up your new product launch intensity, how do you ensure that this doesn't lead to some SKU proliferation, heightened supply chain complexity? Because here again, you implemented the Tasty program a few years ago to reduce the number of SKUs, reduce complexity.
So how to make sure that you don't erase all the benefits from Tasty by accelerating now, the pace of new product introductions? Any column that would be, would be great. Thank you.
Guillaume, thank you. And, let me take a crack at both of these questions, and maybe in particular, spend some time on the first one, because I think there's also a wider strategic context. And let me start with the big picture, and that is we continue to believe, and we will lay out in more detail to you during the Capital Market Day in November, that our portfolio, in a normalized state at the present time, without much surgery, by M&A, is capable of delivering mid-single-digit growth. And so whatever distortions you are seeing and have seen over the last two to three years to the up or down, were distortions that had to do with this historic inflation spike, and then, some special situations, like, for example, our self-induced integration problem at Nestlé Health Science and other situations.
But as we're putting those behind us, and as the inflation situation now is rapidly normalizing, you should have confidence that the portfolio overall is capable of delivering that mid-single-digit range. And it's a matter now of really putting these issues behind us, and then in a fully normalized year, we have confidence. And again, we will try to make that case and lay it out in greater detail in the Capital Market Day in November. The four businesses in particular, remember, several of them now are affected by special situations. One is on Nestlé Health Science. Clearly, the first half we indicated to you was gonna be impacted by the VMS integration issue. You've seen now great progress in the second quarter, and we're slated for a strong second half.
And then obviously, the proof point to you will be that on a clean year 2025, we're delivering continued solid growth there. Nutrition, as you know, that one originally in 2017, I had called out as one of the growth drivers. It's certainly one that's very important to us from a mission and purpose point of view, but in recent years, as you know, with lower birth rates, this was not a business that was so much a growth contributor. It's still a very important one from a value perspective, and certainly a very important one when it comes to the nutritionally best start in life, where breastfeeding is not possible, and hence we're deeply committed to it. We do believe that in a fully normalized state, especially with some of the...
Market share gains we're working on, that business can do better than what we've seen in the first half, but I also believe that the first half, because of these special circumstances, was not the best yardstick. Pet food, we did indicate that after four years of consecutive double-digit growth, normalization was in place. So when you're taking out the first half, you are basically looking at a normalizing business. I think the true longer-term, midterm point of view would be to take an average of several years that are above and below performance. So I think the snapshot from the first half doesn't do it full justice. And, coffee, I think, is one of our strong growth categories. You're seeing very good success. For example, close to 6% organic growth in the first half on Nescafé.
So clearly, I think the coffee category in the segments we're in is doing well for us. So I, I think in summary, you do have very specialized situations here applying to three out of four of these growth categories, but the more important wider picture is that the portfolio overall can definitely deliver the mid-single digit growth in a fully normalized state that is not impacted by serious significant one-offs, and is not impacted by the distortions we've seen through inflation over the last two years. Now, on your second question, obviously, when we did the Tasty SKU rationalization, we didn't just rationalize, but we also put procedures in that make sure that for new SKUs, which get launched all the time, we also have ongoing review processes that make sure that older ones do not pile up.
I think at the time when we outlined Tasty, we told you that this piling up had essentially occurred in the second half of the last decade, when, because of the strong focus on organic growth and RIG, people were reluctant to let certain products go. I think now we have better processes in that identify these products and then cut them out if they don't meet certain performance criteria, so that the ongoing new launch doesn't add to product proliferation. Do keep in mind that while the launch intensity is up 15%, for example, for the first half of this year, and we're targeting 20% for the entire year, what we're doing here is not going to new and unprecedented levels, but rather we are restoring a large intensity that we had seen prior to the year 2022.
So these launch intensities are not unknown to us, and they don't create a new high watermark.
Thanks, Guillaume. Next question is from Bruno Monteyne at Bernstein. Please go ahead, Bruno.
Hi, Mark and Anna. Just the first one is, there's a few times that you mentioned that the trade channels, particularly in the U.S., are performing worse than the non-trade channels. Now, could you just sort of elaborate a little bit more on that? Is there a, you know, the chance that the pressures you're seeing in the trade channels, it just takes a bit of time before we see the same in the other channels? So could there be delayed pain, or is there any structural reasons why you think the non-trade channels would be performing better for you and also going forward? The second thing is, you've mentioned a few times in the past, you know, the growth potential you're seeing in the longer term for coffee in India and in China, and these countries becoming coffee markets.
I mean, it's clearly that the potential could be huge for that. But I'm trying to get a bit of a stab for what is the timeframe over which new growth engines for Nestlé could become material. Is that a kind of a 3-5-year timeframe before this becomes a major topic of analytical like this? Is it faster? Is it, is it slower? Thank you.
Thanks, Bruno. Let me take a crack at the second one, and then, Anna can take the lead on the first one, and I chime in, when needed. So look, I think coffee China is happening as we speak, and, I think we're seeing good success there for the first half, tempered by the general economic, caution that we're seeing in China, in particular in the second quarter. So that was also something that, we witnessed, that in the second quarter, compared to the optimism that people had at the beginning of the year, clearly, the general economic growth and, consumer sentiment was a bit of a disappointment that led to, more consumer hesitation and more intense, price competition.
But, aside from these short-term sentiment moves, I think the success of coffee in China is something that is scaling up now, and we are one of the lead competitors in that market. India, I think, is also discovering coffee at a fast pace. The pattern is the same as in China. First, you see the growth in coffee shops, because for someone who is new to the category, that is the lowest risk way to simply try it, one cup at a time. And then when people feel confident that this is something they're sticking with longer term, the retail growth takes off. People then may buy a coffee machine, or they may stock up on soluble coffee, and then it kind of captures the retail channel.
India is a bit behind into China in that regard, but we're seeing the same trends unfold, and so that one, I think, is also having a positive future on a several-year timeframe.
To answer the first one, so in the US, the big untracked channels for us are e-commerce, vet, specialty, pet specialty, and club. So those, those are the big ones, and collectively, we're seeing double-digit growth there, so we're growing at a little over 10%. Now, why are those channels growing fast? Well, a lot of this goes right to the heart of the consumer. There is a greater move globally to shop online, and to shop in more specialty places than go to the more traditional bricks and mortar outlets. So I think these channels are fundamentally less under pressure, and that's why, you know, they're great places to be winning. So that's the sort of channel context.
I think the important point is we're gaining share in all of those channels, and that's because we are very focused on our execution, and making sure that particularly we have our digital share of shelf, you know, exactly right. And actually, more generally globally on e-commerce, we're gaining share in every zone. I think we're holding in Europe and gaining everywhere else, and gaining at quite a nice rate. And that's important because as we look at where the world is going, ensuring that we've got the executional capability to win as channels shift, is obviously a big area of focus for us.
And Bruno, let me build on that. So fully in agreement here, we have a very simple mantra when it comes to channels, and that is: win with the winners. And so as Anna explained in I think very good detail here, we recognize those as superior performers, and we bet on them early on, and now we are seeing the benefits. If that picture is changing over time, I would expect us to recognize that as well, and then basically put our emphasis on where we see the greatest consumer relevance and hence the greatest growth opportunity.
Next question is from Jeremy Fialko at HSBC. Please go ahead, Jeremy.
Oh, hi. Hi, good afternoon. A couple of questions from me. So the first one is, could you talk about what's going on in AOA in terms of some of the sort of boycotts of Western brands? I see that some of your Malaysian sales were down quite a lot in the quarter. So, which markets you're seeing it, whether the situation's getting kind of worse and what sort of the drag that it might be having on your business? And then the second one is, I guess, a bit of a follow-up on Gabe's question from earlier. If we focus on Nespresso in particular, again, you know, relatively slow period for Nespresso. You know, I thought that we were through this kind of post-pandemic normalization.
So could you sort of talk about what the path to that business back to mid-single digit growth is? Or whether indeed you think it is a mid-single digit growth business going forward, or whether now, because the penetration of the systems or whatever is so high, we do need to have a more kind of gradual type of growth rate from Nespresso going forward. I'm talking here particularly about the standalone business rather than the Starbucks stuff that you're selling in retail. Thanks.
Jeremy, thank you. Let me try and take a crack at both. So in AOA, you're right, we're seeing continued consumer hesitancy in some select markets as a result of the Middle Eastern political situation, and that is ongoing. It has not improved very much since the beginning of the year, but I also don't see it turning worse at this point. We've stayed away from more targeting. I don't see us as a company particularly pointed out. I think it's a general hesitancy with regards to global consumer brands. Regarding Nespresso, it is important that, of course, we report this business to you as a globally managed business. But you have to see the wider reality of Nespresso plus the portion coffee that runs on its machines.
So that would be then our Starbucks capsules and also Nescafé Farmers Origins. So between those three brands, we're covering different price points, and we're also covering different channels. So I think overall, we're doing quite well when it comes to what we call the Nespresso system sales. Then Nespresso, depending on what year you-- what quarter you look at it, the performance may not tell you the full story. So in particular now, when it comes to the first half, for example, and pricing opportunities, do keep in mind, Nespresso, when it comes to its coffee mixes, it relies to a larger degree than some of the other brands on Arabica, and hence the pricing opportunity and the pricing need was less pronounced in this area.
So there's always some special factors that apply, and hence, you may not have seen sort of the Organic Growth for this particular period in time that we had in mind. But on a longer-term basis, still very bullish here on the opportunity with Nespresso and the two formats, both the Original Line and the Vertuo Line.
So next question is from, Celine Pannuti at J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead, Celine.
Thank you for taking my question. Good afternoon. Maybe before taking my question, I want to thank you, Luca, for your help and your dedication, while at the IR at Nestlé. So a warm thank you, and congratulations for your next move. My first question is on the pricing. So Mark, you said that pricing - I mean, we see that pricing is decelerating to 0.6 in the second quarter. Can you help us understand the level of pricing that we should be expecting into the second half? Would they be already placed it, like in coffee and confectionery, where you will see new pricing that will accelerate?
Or, do we see that 0.6 as, you know, a level where you will see less pricing even than that in the second half? My second question probably is follow up as well on that pricing point. But, given what you said, Anna, gross margin will be negative in the second half of the year. And so I wonder, as we look into 2025, and into the range of 17.5-18.5, which is your margin target, how comfortable are you that in an environment where you will have to face the higher cost inflation because that will be as well the case for 2025?
What measures are in place for you to deliver on that, given H2 margin will be under pressure? Thank you.
Shall I have a go at the first one? So how to think about pricing. So as I look forward, I would presume that the level of promotional intensity that we're seeing currently continues. With respect specifically to Nestlé Health Science, there we are investing specifically to get our products back on shelf and really get that business going again, and that's quite a time-bound thing, so that should be done by the end of Q3. And then as I look out across the half, we will see commodity prices, you know, continue to go up in coffee and cocoa, and there we will be taking pricing. So if you wrap all of that together, you know, yes, I expect to see positive price in the second half and for the year.
You know, we'll take every opportunity that is appropriate whilst maintaining the right competitive price gapping for our brands, for consumers.
Celine, maybe if I can build on that. While I know you were asking, sort of with a view towards the second half, also to give a bit more color on where we saw the situation now for the first half, and in particular, the second quarter. I think you've seen probably lesser pricing than expected in North America, where on the one hand, it's this promotional intensity coming from the value-seeking consumer that Anna talked about. But on the other hand, I also wanted to point out some of the proactive moves we've done, in particular, around getting product, new product on shelf and paying the listing fees.
And then, the other area I wanted to point out from a geography point of view is China, where I think, compared to the expectations beginning of the year, Q2, from an overall economic point of view and consumer sentiment point of view, clearly was weaker than anyone expected, and hence, that led to more intense, price competition and a more hesitant consumer. In terms of category, clearly, the one that does stand out is, pet, where I think in line with some of the, input cost, inflation reduction, you've also seen now, a certain price normalization.
As you know, price was the main reason why in 2023 and 2022 we had seen a double-digit, organic growth for pet, and, now as that normalized, of course, we want to be sure that our price gaps, to where the market level is, do not get out of hand. So hopefully that gives a bit of color on where we saw things go in the first half and the second quarter.
With respect to margin, as I just said, in answer to, I can't remember whose question it was now, year on year, our gross margin will improve. So the issue is more that there's a phasing difference between H1 and H2, but we're seeing that gross margin improvement over the year as a whole. We will continue to see rebuilding of our gross margin over time, as we work through what's been a really unusual period. With respect to our UTOP margin, gross margin is just a piece of it, as you know. We also have the leverage benefit of the extra volume. We have the mix benefits that go through.
And so you put all of that together with the work that we continue to do on structural costs, and, you know, that leaves us confident of where we stand on UTOP margin.
And if I could just build on that, that's why it was so important for us to also get that real internal growth flywheel running again, because as you know, as inflation peaked and came down, there was a period of 6-7 quarters with kind of weak RIG development and at times negative volumes. Clearly, what you don't get then for the business is operational leverage. So getting the flywheel running again, having now a convincing RIG performance for Q2 and also continued positive RIG outlook for the business is important because it gets the operational leverage going again that Anna's referring to.
Celine, thanks for your kind words. So it has been a pleasure to work with you and all the investor community over, over these years. Next question is from David Hayes at Jefferies. Please go ahead, David.
Thanks, Luca, and good, good afternoon, everyone. Just to quickly follow up on that question, just to clarify, so I'm just—I'm not quite clear on the second half. Gross margin is still gonna be up, but just not as much as the first half? That's what I understood, or, or is it, is it down year on year, you said specifically? Maybe I missed that, but for the full year it will still be up. Just to clarify that one more time. And then I guess just in terms of the two questions and staying with margin, and that question, I guess, if you think about the pricing, you kind of talked about it being more promotional, more pressure downward than you expected. A&P demand seemed to be maybe a little bit higher as well than you expected.
And then you've got the cocoa and the coffee prices going up through the year, which you, you've talked about as well. But you're, you're still happy with the same guidance on margin and consensus being up around 20 basis points, to your, to your point earlier. So, so just to understand, what, what's the offset to, to that margin not having to change, given all of those moving parts that seem a little bit less contributory than you thought at, at the beginning of the year? And, and I guess, are those trends likely to continue, which means that we should be thinking the lower end of the 17.5-18.5 now for, for next year? Or is there a lot of things that, again, will shift, that means that you can get well into that, that range?
And then the second question, just in terms of the U.S. orders into the Fourth of July promotion, can you quantify that at all for the U.S. business? We've got a bit more of an idea of that ongoing trend into the second half. And were there any other promotional activities that took place in other markets as you tried to be more competitive, that just weren't significant as that particular one, but that you'd again maybe flag into the third quarter to take account of? Thank you so much.
So let me see if I've got all of those. So on margins, just to be super clear, over the full year, we expect a gross margin improvement, and consensus is there or thereabout. The first half, we saw a big improvement in gross margins. The second half may be slightly below the prior year, if you work the math of that through. So that was the first question. The second question, I think, was why are we confident of our full year margin guidance overall? And I think, a number of things. I think we've laid out for you how we're thinking about continued RIG growth, and that gives us some leverage. Of course, we're going to see some mix benefits in that as well, and we'll get some leverage benefits from that.
I won't talk more about pricing, because I think we've done that one to death. In terms of A&P investment, we've had a big step up in the first half of the year, and we will continue to grow our A&P investment. And I think you said that was higher than expected. I don't think that's the case. This is the right level of investment to grow our business. This is the investment that drives future growth, and we think it's, it's really important, and that's the execution that we're delivering that delivers the RIG growth. But as you look at the second half, we're lapping a much higher level of investment in the second half of last year. So while it will continue to increase, there won't be such a big step up half on half.
And yes, you know, we've, we've talked about cost inflation coming through, and we continue to manage our structural costs. So if you wrap all of that together, we're comfortable with our margin. And then I think the, the next one is the U.S. phasing. Now, maybe just to step back a minute, the RIG swing that we've seen in the U.S. has been substantial. So it was 860 basis points from a -5.8 in the first quarter to a 2.8% growth in the second quarter. And that is a real turnaround. The impact of the phasing of orders in Zone North America in Q2 was about 100 basis points of that 860 basis point swing. So it's not material from a group perspective.
The reason we're calling it out is just so that you can understand the phasing of RIG performance won't be linear in North America over the next couple of quarters. That's all. And are there any other, promotional activities that are elsewhere? No, only this one.
Next question is from Sarah Simon at Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, Sarah.
Yes, afternoon. I've got two, if I may. Just to come back on this point about marketing and pricing, if you're stepping up materially the level of innovation, so if it was 15% more new launches in H1 and it's gonna be 20% for the full year, that obviously is a big step up again in H2 to get there. Does that not entail the need for more marketing again, and also maybe more paying fees to get onto shelves? That was the first thing. Second question was just on this 100 basis points. Can you call out any specific categories where which benefited, just so we can think about it from a category perspective rather than a geographic perspective? Thanks.
So, with respect to innovation, we've got a wide range of innovations coming out, and what we're consistently doing is, really using forward-looking executional metrics to make sure that we're taking our innovations more broadly across more countries in a more effective way. And actually, you see that, you know, in our, in our Billionaire Brands. You see that sort of focus that we're bringing in our advertising to really focus it in the areas where it can make the biggest impact. And, and we're seeing the benefit of that in terms of the market share gains that we're seeing. So as we look at the, innovation we're bringing forward, it's often variants of existing brands. And so as we launch them into market, it's not like, they need a whole new set of brand building.
It's about delivering on a specific consumer need in a market. So look at, for example, Nescafé Ice Roast, which is the cold soluble Nescafé. It comes out under the Nescafé brand halo, but it really delivers on a specific young consumer need. So, you know, yes, there is a step up in advertising and promotional investment, half on half, and we think we've got the right focus and targeting for the innovation we're bringing to market. And yes, in the US specifically, where we're launching new brands, there will be listing fees, but that's a US-specific issue. And then with your question on the North American phasing, across most categories, I mean, a slight weighting to frozen, but not big in the scheme of things.
Next question is from Jeff Stent at Exane. Please go ahead, Jeff.
Thank you, Luca. And just to echo Celine's comments, I'll miss you, Luca. Thank you. But to my question, at the start of the year, you said you intended to achieve mid-single digit growth in 2025. I assume that guidance remains in place, does it?
Jeff, that's your only question, or do you have a second one?
Oh, no. Sorry, sorry, that was my only question. Yeah, I realized I should ask two or three, but I'm asking one. Yeah, my apologies.
So look, I mean, as you know, going back to the Capital Market Day in Barcelona, this whole notion of reestablishing mid-single digit 25 is a midterm goal of ours and remains that. Specifically for 25, given how choppy the environment is and you know, how unforeseen some of the macro and geopolitical events are, I'd like to reserve basically that to the moment in time when we give the annual guidance, and that is February next year.
Thanks, Jeff. So next question is from Victoria Petrova at Bank of America. Please, go ahead, Victoria.
Thank you very much. I have two clarification questions. First, my understanding is your cost of goods sold in 2024 will be up because of cocoa and coffee costs primarily. Are you hedged on cocoa till the year-end? How should we think about that? And my second question: in the beginning of the year, when you talked about the potential 4% organic growth target, it was around 1% volume and price and around 2% mix. Now you're moving to 3%... more than 3%. What has changed within this equation? What has been surprising in 2024 mostly? Is it price, or is it mix? Again, we have very different performance in Q1 and Q2 when we look at RIG. So it would be interesting to understand how you think about it. Thank you so much.
Thanks, Victoria. Let me take the second one and then hand it to Anna for the first one. So look, when we said around 4%, we did not provide, at the time, a detailed breakdown into pricing and RIG, and that's just in line with our long-standing practice. But it's very clear that as we went through the first half, we've done, especially in the second quarter, everything we said we were gonna do on RIG, and that's important to me from an execution point of view. You know, we did see finally the lift off from the stronger brand support, the focus on the billionaire brands, betting on these fast-growing channels that Anna described, and then also getting better innovation out there that so far has seen good success.
So all of these good drivers across the board, and I think that's why this slide in the presentation is so important. This is not a one-trick pony. This is something that applies to all five zones, and it applies to all categories. I think that was, in my opinion, the key turning point, and that one worked just as foreseen. The part, as we went deeper into Q2, that we had to realize is that overall, in addition to some of the special circumstances we pointed out to you, like the listing fees and reestablishing Nestlé Health Science VMS products back on shelf and so forth, that there is a bit of a stronger promotional intensity environment out there than we had foreseen.
Hence, pricing was gonna get lower for the full year, and that's why in this equation now, we felt that it's more appropriate, rather than guiding around 4%, to guide at least 3%. You may remember, in the full year, in the first quarter call, I mentioned to you that when we were saying around 4%, we didn't mean a backdoor 3%-5%. That was important to us, so we bracketed the target range more closely around 4%, and now we're staying true to that. And we are basically indicating to you that greater than 3%, at least 3%, is the better descriptor of what we have to expect than around 4%. But you also see that this is just literally a few basis points apart, and it's not too far away from where consensus is anyways.
So overall, pricing has come down. The pricing expectation has come down a little bit from what we expected at the beginning of the year and in Q1.
Maybe just to cover that first question. You talked about our input costs going up. They're not actually in aggregate. Coffee and cocoa are definite upward pressure, but we've got, you know, benefit elsewhere. So in aggregate, where we sit today, our input costs are broadly flat year on year.
Next question is from James Edward Jones at RBC. Please go ahead, James.
Thank you, Luca. Mark, you said that you should, I'm paraphrasing, but you should do mid-single-digit revenue growth without one-offs. On one-offs, what always or normally happens in big, diversified consumer staples companies like Nestlé, so, you know, I could point to Unilever with ice cream or Danone with its struggles in plant-based-... wouldn't it make sense for these one-offs to somehow be reflected in your medium-term expectations?
Yeah, James, important question, and what I, what I should have said really is material significant one-offs, and those typically you don't have every quarter, every year. So yes, of course, I mean, there's always a number of one-off situations that you're dealing with, but I think you've also seen many years which we had reported that didn't have any of those or that have positive ones to equal out than some of the negatives. So clearly, what I was trying to intend to say is something that we very much called out to you in the middle of the COVID crisis, that with that last major portfolio move at the time, which was the divestiture of Nestlé Waters, U.S., and that deal closed and out of the system, we felt we had a portfolio, and that feeling still applies today.
We had a portfolio, we have a portfolio that can, in a normalized state, deliver mid-single-digit growth, defined as 4%-6%. That statement still applies. What you've seen since we made that statement in 2020, is you've seen some years where, due to COVID and due to inflation, we've been significantly north of that. And now, as we're coming out from that significant inflation spike, you're seeing a year where with an at least 3% organic growth guidance, we're gonna be slightly under it. But that the portfolio overall is capable of delivering that, we have confidence, and again, we'll lay this out in greater detail in November.
Next question is from Tom Sykes at Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead, Tom.
Thank you. Yeah. Are you able, given all the puts and takes, on the RIG number, just to commit to whether the RIG will accelerate Q3 versus Q2? In coffee and cocoa-exposed categories, do you at all get any pre-buying ahead of price increases, or have you had any pre-buying? How early can people do it, given the expected high price increases that are likely or the price increases that are likely to come through? And then just on productivity, you've, you know, historically generated 60, 70 basis points or so of productivity. I wondered, Anna, in your time there now, is that something that can be relied upon, or would you see any possibility that that level could increase at all, please?
Do you want me to have a go at some of those? So, with respect to RIG quarter-on-quarter, I'm not going to give you quarterly guidance on RIG, but we are back to positive RIG growth, and we feel like we've got that momentum in the business and the things that we have done around really driving execution, investing and innovating is working, which is what gives us that confidence. In terms of coffee and cocoa and pre-buying, I think the way to think about this is, we're in 170 countries, and we are taking price with different customers in different channels at different times.
In some cases, there's a small level of pre-buy, but when you look across the group as a whole, that's not something that is distorting our overall performance, so it's not an area I would focus on much. In terms of productivity, I'm learning my way across Nestlé and enjoying it very much. I would say there is great focus on productivity on an ongoing basis. I think that's really important for a business like us, and I think it's something that, you know, we'll be continuing to focus on and use metrics to focus on. So I'm confident that we can continue to drive incremental productivity savings.
Tom, let me build on that, last point, and as you followed us over the years, I think we are very, very much beholden to this continuous improvement mindset. There was a brief pause, and that was during the depth of COVID, because we felt at that moment to go ahead with, significant restructurings, even at a single location, would have been the wrong thing to do. But, the minute that COVID normalized, we started identifying projects again, that give us, good efficiency, improvements going forward. You see that, by the way, in our, reflected in our 2023 and first half, difference between Underlying Trading operating profit margin and trading operating profit margin. So this is where some of the restructuring work, can be seen.
I think that ongoing improvement way is the best way to seek a business that, in a harmonious way, kind of builds on its growth. As you know, we're not interested in significant slash-and-burn style restructurings. We believe that those tend to be disruptive to growth. We believe that this continuous pathway is the right one to go. You've seen, in my opinion, an exemplary period between 2017 and 2019, where we had that flywheel on the improvements going, and we had the flywheel going on RIG and organic growth. And basically, after these twin distortions now of COVID and the historic inflation spike, what we're trying to get back to is exactly that dual flywheel kind of approach that funds future growth.
We have no further questions. We have come to an end to our session today. We all thank you for your interest in Nestlé. As usual, if you have any further questions, don't hesitate to reach out to our IR team. With that, we wish you all a very good day.