Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the SIG Full Year 2025 Results Conference Call and Live Webcast. I'm Vicky, the Chorus Call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star, then zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Ann-Kristin Erkens, CFO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for this full year 2025 earnings release of SIG Group. My name is Ann Erkens, CFO of the company, and until two days ago, also interim CEO. I will discuss the results with you today, and it is a big pleasure to have our new CEO, Mikko Keto, with me on the call today, who joined the company on March 3rd. As always, the slides for this call are available for download on our investor website. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements involving risks and uncertainties that may cause results to differ materially from those statements. A full cautionary statement and disclaimer can be found on slide 2 of the presentation, which participants are encouraged to read carefully. With that, Mikko, welcome on board officially. Do you want to say a couple of words as a first introduction?
Thank you, Ann, I would like to congratulate you and the SIG team for the strong fourth quarter. That fourth quarter gives a solid foundation to start the work for 2026. I began my onboarding a while ago, firstly looking at outside in the company and the performance. Now I have pleasure to do onboarding in the company, looking at inside out. There are some really strong points in the company when I look at it. For example, solid foundation through innovation, customer partnerships and delivering value both to our customers and shareholders. One key aspect of the business also is customer retention. I can see that the customer retention is high. We have long-term relationships with most of our customers.
It means that the lifetime value of the customer is high. I will continue my journey in the beginning to understand the business in more detail now being inside the company, and I'm looking forward working with you all in the coming months and years to deliver value to the shareholders and the SIG organization as a whole. Thank you for your trust and support and looking forward to working with you all. Ann, back to you.
Thank you, Mikko. Let's start with the key messages for the fourth quarter. In line with our announcement on September 18th, our revenue growth has reflected the subdued consumer environment throughout the year. We were pleased to see that we saw a sequential improvement in the fourth quarter, resulting in a + 0.5% growth for Q4. This brought full year revenue growth to +0.1% at constant currency and constant resin. To the upper end of our expectations communicated in September. On a substrate level, aseptic cartons grew by 1.2%. It was especially strong in the Americas, which is one of the reasons why we expand the capacity of our production plant in Mexico. The chilled cartons business declined by 5.3%, impacted by the competitive environment, especially in China.
It is noteworthy, though, that the situation was improving in the fourth quarter. The bag-in-box and spouted pouch business was -3.4%, reflecting the higher comps in the second half of the year. As announced in September, following a strategic review of the group by the board of directors and in light of the prevailing soft market conditions, we have recognized non-recurring charges of EUR 351 million pre-tax in 2025. All charges relating to this review have been booked now. In the fourth quarter, these amounted to EUR 31 million, with the largest item being restructuring charges relating to the elimination of positions as discussed at the Investor Update. All conversations with the affected employees have been completed in 2025, and the corresponding savings are ramping up throughout the first half of 2026.
During the fourth quarter, we could complete two asset disposals with land sales in China, the retired chilled cartons plant in Shanghai and in Germany. These two divestments contributed approximately EUR 17 million as a positive one-time impact to the 2025 free cash flow. Moving to filler placements. We placed 68 new fillers in the year 2025 across all geographies and well within our aspired range of 60- 80 placements in a year. The incremental growth of fillers in field was 14, as 54 fillers were returned or scrapped at customer sites. The average age of these old fillers was more than 15 years. Total book value was around EUR 1 million.
This was normal course of business and has been reflected in the financials as such. As discussed in the Q3 call, as part of the strategic review, we have also assessed the utilization and corresponding cash generation of fillers in field. This led to EUR 21 million of filler impairments within the non-recurring items for underutilized fillers at customer sites, respectively, for fillers on stock. Please note this does not mean that there was a reduction of available capacity in the field. For 2026, we have an attractive pipeline and expect to place a similar number as in 2025. On the innovation side, the second machine of our new Neo line has been placed in Saudi Arabia. Next to higher speed and output, this machine is also characterized by a very low waste rate of below 0.5%.
The Neo line is, of course, also capable of processing the new Alu-free full barrier sleeve, where our rollout continues in Europe and also in Southeast Asia. Terra Alu-free + Full barrier from SIG is the first aseptic carton that is recognized as recyclable under Korean regulations. In the other direction, from East to West, we see the expansion of the DomeMini format, which was first introduced in Asia and is now coming to Europe. It is expected on shelves in Europe in the first half of 2026. Finally, we were very proud that we received for the seventh time the EcoVadis platinum status with a record score of 99 out of 100. Let's take a look at how our business has evolved on the revenue side. We closed the year 2025 with a revenue of EUR 3.25 billion.
In reported terms, this is 2.4% below the prior year due to the stronger euro. At constant currency, revenue growth was 0.4%, and at constant currency and constant resin prices, it was up by 0.1%. The revenue share by segment, which is the regions, is almost unchanged versus the prior year. Europe, with a 32% share, remains the largest region. Asia-Pacific and the Americas each have 27% share, and IMEA is 14%. For SIG, the largest countries in the IMEA region are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, North Africa, and India. By business line, aseptic carton is 79% of our sales. chilled carton is 4%, and the bag-in-box spouted pouch business is 17% of our revenue, unchanged to the previous year.
By product, 87% of our revenue is packaging material and service contributes 7%, was last year 6%, and equipment 6%, was last year 7%. Moving to the results of 2025 on profit, cash flow, and returns. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to EUR 718 million with a margin of 22.1%. Excluding the non-recurring charges related to the strategic review, adjusted EBITDA was EUR 788 million with a margin of 24.2%. This compares to 24.6% in the prior year. The adjusted EBIT was EUR 442 million with a margin of 13.6%. If we exclude the non-recurring charges, adjusted EBIT was EUR 500 million at a margin of 15.7%.
On adjusted net income level, we recorded EUR 231 million or EUR 285 million without the non-recurring charges. EPS declined from EUR 0.81 - EUR 0.75. Free cash flow landed at EUR 191 million for the year 2025 after EUR 290 million in 2024. As the non-recurring charges in 2025 were almost exclusively non-cash, there is no need to discuss the number without non-recurring items here. Lastly, return on capital employed, ROCE, calculated at a 30% tax rate, was 25% and 29% excluding the impact of the non-recurring charges. Capital employed is here defined as PP&E, right of use assets, capitalized development and IT costs, net working capital, and the non-current deferred revenues.
Looking at the Q4 figures, revenue at constant currency slightly grew by 0.6% and by 0.5% at constant currency and constant resin. adjusted EBITDA was EUR 223 million, translating into a margin of 24.7%. This includes EUR 8.4 million of non-recurring charges. Without these charges, adjusted EBITDA was EUR 231 million in the fourth quarter, with a margin of 25.7%. adjusted EBIT was EUR 156 million, translating into a margin of 17.4%, also including EUR 8.4 million of non-recurring charges. Without these, adjusted EBIT was EUR 165 million in the fourth quarter with a margin of 18.3%. Adjusted net income was EUR 78 million. Excluding the non-recurring charges, it was EUR 88 million.
Free cash flow in the fourth quarter was EUR 275 million, close to previous year's levels. Turning now to the performance by region. In Europe, full-year revenue has declined by 0.8% at constant currency compared to strong prior year growth of above 6%. We were delighted to see the region showing a growth of 4% in the final quarter of the year. This performance reflects several factors, including lower availability of raw milk for aseptic processing compared to the strong supply conditions in 2024. Especially in the second and the third quarter of the year. In the fourth quarter, the industry observed lower raw milk prices and correspondingly more milk going into aseptic carton. The region benefited in 2024 from the ramp up of filler placements following wins related to EU regulations on 2reps in prior years.
Throughout the year, export volumes of UHT milk have been lower, and the juice category in the region has also declined, impacted by a weak summer season. Excluding non-recurring charges, both adjusted absolute EBITDA and EBIT increase in Europe. Margins expanded by more than 200 basis points. The margin was positively impacted by price and by a favorable customer mix due to the lower export volumes. In India, the Middle East and Africa, overall revenue development for 2025 was impacted by a strong prior year comparison of 13% growth, leading to a slight growth of 0.4% for 2025. In the last quarter of 2025, revenue growth has been slightly positive too. Carton volumes have been impacted by lower consumer demand across the region, as well as by higher competition and the monsoon season in India.
Bag and box and spouted pouch revenue growth has been strong in the region, including in India. The EBITDA margin without non-recurring charges came in at 26.8%, slightly ahead of the previous year. FX headwinds in the region were more than offset by pricing. The EBIT margin was slightly below the prior year as it was impacted by additional depreciation of the India plant following its startup. For the financial year 2025, revenue for Asia-Pacific declined by 1.7%, both on a constant currency basis and on a constant currency and constant resin basis. Continued market softness in the region and the competitive environment in chilled carton impacted our revenue performance last year.
The later occurrence of the Chinese New Year in 2026 had an impact on volumes in China, particularly during the fourth quarter, making Asia the only region that did not record a positive volume growth in Q4. Still, we were able to continue to outperform the market in China with product innovation and flexibility. Southeast Asia, Japan and Korea continued their growth momentum despite the market downturn. We recorded strong filler sales and also have a good pipeline for 2026. The adjusted EBITDA margin without non-recurring charges was negatively impacted by product mix and SG&A costs. The adjusted EBIT margin was additionally impacted by the annualization of the depreciation of the new chilled plant in China. The Americas were the region that recorded the highest growth in 2025, with 4.4% at constant currency and 3% at constant currency and constant resin.
Aseptic carton growth was especially impacted positively by liquid dairy in Mexico. We saw price increases in Brazil and a higher service revenue. In the bag-in-box business, share gains achieved in the U.S. in dairy and in syrup could mostly offset declines in wine, the retail business and non-systems businesses. In this segment, the margin, both on an adjusted EBITDA or EBIT level, was impacted by unfavorable foreign currency movements, investments necessary to enhance capabilities and wage inflation. On this slide, we have summarized the breakdown of the full EUR 351 million non-recurring charges that were recorded in 2025 in connection with the strategic review and the market softness. After the EUR 320 million recorded by the end of the third quarter, the fourth quarter saw an additional EUR 31 million.
The total of EUR 351 million is well within the guidance range of pre-tax EUR 310 million-EUR 360 million, which we provided in September. We also indicated that around 90% of this amount will be non-cash, with the cash outflow mostly occurring during 2026. We expect the 2026 cash impact to be approximately EUR 25 million. The split by bucket of the non-recurring charges is as follows. EUR 107 million is an impairment to the value of the bag-in-box and spouted pouch businesses, reflecting weak consumer sentiment and business performance. This has affected the recoverability of acquisition-related assets. EUR 86 million of impairment concern the value of the chilled carton business. This principally reflects the weak market conditions in China, which has impacted the recoverability of the assets.
EUR 82 million relate to the reassessment of the required operating capacities in aseptic carton within the context of the current weaker market environment. This includes production capacities in India, selected equipment in China, and some filling lines across locations where, as discussed on the first slide, impairments related to low capacity utilization.
Under the headline Innovation, around EUR 62 million is associated with the reassessment of the group's innovation portfolio, including the impairment of equipment that is no longer required and the impairment of capitalized development costs relating to projects that have been stopped following the strategy review. Finally, a charge of EUR 14 million mostly covers the restructuring costs related to the elimination of a low three-digit number of positions in SG&A and R&D. Our annual report summarizes all relevant information in note 4 of the financial review and additional details are presented in the notes 7, 9, 10 and 12 - 14.
Let me now remind you about what we discussed in Q3 on the presentation of the non-recurring adjustments. In line with our standard definition, charges included as part of adjusted EBITDA are those where regional management is held accountable for the delivery of returns on customer projects, such as filling line investments or product launches. As you can see from the graph on the right, this portion amounted to EUR 69 million. Charges excluded from adjusted EBITDA include non-cash unrealized derivative positions and non-cash impairments of intangible assets. In addition, we also take charges below the line that relate to footprint or capacity rationalization as well as rightsizing of the organization. Any such booking below the line needs group approval and rigorously follows our standard definition.
Charges excluded from adjusted EBITDA amounted to approximately EUR 281 million for the period, taking the total non-recurring charge recognized in 2025 to EUR 351 million. Next, let's take a look at the EBITDA bridge for 2025. EBITDA was affected by a - EUR 44 million relating to the currency impact, which reduced the EBITDA margin by 60 basis points. Excluding FX, the adjusted EBITDA without the non-recurring charges increased by EUR 12 million. This improvement of EUR 12 million was mostly supported by EUR 42 million contributions from top line, which reflects price increases and favorable mix impacts. In addition, raw material costs were overall lower by EUR 9 million in 2025 compared to the prior year. This was mostly due to the polymer category.
On the other hand, production was -EUR 10 million, as the lower volumes in the second half led to unabsorbed fixed costs and lower efficiency. In addition, SG&A was up EUR 17 million in 2025. This included wage inflation and growth investments in the first half of the year, which we have reduced in the second half due to the softening of the market. Turning now to adjusted EBIT. As of 2026, we will report our business performance on an EBIT level, as introduced during the Investor Update in October. We believe this enhances transparency and relevance and at the same time will support our management teams around the world to take better capital allocation decisions. In the backup of the presentation for this earnings call, you can find a summary of 2024 and 2025 EBITDA, adjusted depreciation and amortization and resulting EBIT by region.
The adjusted EBIT margin 25 without non-recurring charges amounted to 15.7%, below the prior year number of 16.5%. Naturally, also here, there was a negative impact of FX on the margin, 70 basis points. In absolute terms, adjusted EBIT without non-recurring charges was EUR 511 million, with the improvements in EBITDA discussed before being offset by additional depreciation of EUR 12 million, driven by the PP&E CapEx in India and China as well as by the filler placements. In this slide, we show our usual reconciliation between reported EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA. For 2025, you can see the impact of the non-recurring charges on the relevant line items with the right-hand side aligning to our definitions as discussed on slide 13.
Same as in Q3, other includes costs for the renewal of the group's IT systems and consulting charges for the strategic review. Under the column for non-recurring charges, other reflects penalties related to the delay in the further expansion of the group's production facilities in India and the charge for the CEO separation. The gain on sale of PP&E and other assets of EUR 5 million primarily relates to the asset sales in China and Germany. Following the methodology presented on the previous slide, here we show the impact of the non-recurring items on net income and adjusted net income. Profit for the period without non-recurring charges was EUR 208 million in 2025, including all non-recurring charges, the group recorded a loss of EUR 87 million for the year.
On adjusted net income, as stated in the last quarters, the Onex PPA amortization, which arose from the acquisition accounting when the group was acquired by Onex in 2015, was fully amortized as of the end of Q1 2025. As such, this line will be zero going forward. We have added for your reference a slide to the backup of this presentation that summarizes the amount of the Onex PPA and all other PPA by year and also shows the impact on gross margin, SG&A and EBIT. Please note that also all other PPA is expected to be lower in 2026 following the impairments in 2025. As a disclaimer, the 2026 estimate is of course subject to FX fluctuation throughout the year.
In summary, the data between the reported and adjusted KPIs will be smaller going forward. Net CapEx including lease payments in 2025 amounted to EUR 200 million or 6.1% of revenue. While CapEx for the plant in India following the completion of the first phase was lower, we continued to invest into the expansion of our Mexican aseptic carton factory, given the strong growth that we have seen in the region of North America . Please also note that the cash inflow from the sale of land and buildings in China and Germany of EUR 16.9 million per the group's definition is included in net CapEx. For the 68 filler placements, EUR 173 million CapEx was spent. The upfront cash ratio has been slightly lower at 71% in 2025, but still at a good level.
Net filler CapEx as a percentage of revenue was 1.5% after 1.1% in the previous year. Free cash flow amounted to EUR 191 million in 2025 after EUR 290 million in the year before. This was driven by the lower adjusted EBITDA versus prior year, which included a significant FX headwind of EUR 44 million as discussed before. The other significant negative impact lied in the higher payments for customer volume incentives in 2025, which were a result of the very strong volume growth of 6% in 2024. As an approximation in the balance sheet, the provision for customer volume incentives decreased by EUR 39 million in 2025. On the positive side, tax payments were lower by EUR 11 million in the period. Two favorable impacts that were of a one-off nature supported the cash flow.
One, the already discussed EUR 17 million for the asset disposals in China and Germany. Two, lower interest payments. As for the new bond of 2025, interest payments only occur once per year. Overall, interest payments were lower by EUR 27 billion. Net working capital as a percentage of revenue improved by 100 basis points as accounts receivable were lower. This was offset in the operating working capital by the lower liability for various customer incentive programs. Turning to debt and leverage. Net debt at the end of 2025 was EUR 2,144 million. The stronger euro helped to reduce the reported net debt by EUR 43 million. However, the free cash flow earned in 2025 was lower than the dividends paid in 2025. Our interest expense was lower by EUR 15 million versus previous year.
This was driven by more favorable underlying market rates and an on average lower utilization of the revolver, partially offset by the higher coupon of the new bond. The net leverage ratio at year-end stood at 3 times after 2.6 times in the prior year. The net leverage ratio was influenced by the lower adjusted EBITDA and also by the non-recurring charges. As per the determination rules of our debt agreements, which for example exclude the impact of impairments, the net leverage ratio stood at 2.8 times. In line with the initial guidance that we had provided at the Investor Update in October, we expect a similar market environment as in 2025, resulting in an outlook for revenue growth on a constant currency and constant resin basis of flat to 2% for the year 2026.
We feel encouraged by the sequential improvement and return to growth in the fourth quarter. We said in October that we would see the 2026 EBIT margin improve versus the 2025 margin excluding non-recurring charges, and we expect to land in a range of 15.7%-16.2% this year. In line with our usual seasonality, adjusted EBIT margins and free cash flow will be higher in the second half of the year. As always, our guidance is subject to input cost changes and foreign currency volatility. The guidance for the adjusted effective tax rate is 26%-28%, and net CapEx, including lease payments, is projected in the corridor of 6%-8% of revenue. On the dividend, as highlighted in our communication of September, the board will propose to the AGM to pause the payout in 2026 for the year 2025.
Our midterm financial guidance is laid out as follows: Revenue guidance for constant currency, constant resin growth is in the 3%-5% range, reflecting a normalization of market dynamics in the midterm. The adjusted EBIT margin will reach a level of above 16.5%. Guidance for net CapEx, including lease payments, remains at 6-8% of revenue, and there's no change to tax expectations. We will focus on cash flow generation and deleveraging to improve our balance sheet. In the midterm, the group targets a net leverage ratio of around 2 times, and we have set ourselves an important milestone of achieving 2.5 times by the end of 2027. The company remains committed to returning cash to shareholders and expect to reinstate dividend payments in a corridor of 30-50% of adjusted net income in the coming year.
In summary, SIG has a clear path forward for value creation. With our strong business model and innovation capabilities. We can build on multiple growth drivers. We have executed the cost adjustment program that we described in October, and there are plans in place to further improve our best in class margins. Rigorous capital allocation discipline will improve our balance sheet and return profile and foster a robust cash generation. This concludes the presentation. 2025 has been a challenging year for SIG, but a year that ended on a more positive note. We would like to thank our customers for their trust in our systems and solutions, and our shareholders for their continued support for the company. Finally, a heartfelt thank you to the SIG teams around the world for their hard work, dedication and commitment. We are now happy to take your questions.
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Questioners on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode and eventually turn off the volume from the webcast while asking a question. Webcast viewers may submit the questions in writing via the relative field. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Ioannis Masvoulas, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Mikko, thank you very much for the presentation. Mikko, congratulations on the new role. I'd like to address the first question to you, if I may. SIG has already done a lot to reposition the business and cut costs over the past several months. Where do you see the biggest opportunities to go even faster and deeper on the self-help journey? What could this entail for additional cost cutting or potential changes to the business mix? I'll stop here for the first one.
Of course, I started on Monday, and I've been looking at, as I said in the beginning, firstly outside in. I've been looking at the benchmarks, the KPIs from outside, and I think we can still improve our competitiveness. I'm trying to look at the value creation short-term and longer term. Of course, the idea is that the long term we build a stronger foundations for the kind of for the coming years. Of course, the areas what I'm looking at is still organizational efficiency. I'm looking at the performance culture. I'm looking at the purchasing procurement and also opportunities to simplify the business and how business is done. When looking at the benchmarks, how we compare against other companies and peer group, I'm typically targeting best in class.
I'm just in the process of doing that, and I think I will be working with SIG team to look at all these areas. Basically target is to be extremely competitive in terms of efficiency, performance culture, purchasing and looking at ways to simplify the business.
That is helpful. Thank you very much for that, and good luck with your new role. The second question is just on the guidance. When I look at the EBIT margin that you managed to achieve for 2025 at 15.7% excluding the one-offs, looking at 2026 guidance where the low end is pretty much at the same level, you are indicating top line growth of between 0%-2%. Worst case, you know, the top line is not going to be worse. You have taken some costs out in 2025 that should really feed through in 2026. What would get you to the bottom end of that range, assuming you're still able to maintain the revenue at least stable over the next 12 months? Thank you.
Yeah. Ioannis, thank you for the question. I understand your view on this guidance, and I think it makes perfect sense. I would also call it a cautious guidance, but we also have seen, especially in the last couple of days, that the world remains very volatile. Let's first start the year, and then we see how this develops.
Okay, that's clear. Thanks very much, and I'll join the queue.
Sure.
The next question from Joern Iffert, UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for taking my questions. Would be 2 - 3, please. The first one also for Mikko, if I may. You were saying you want to focus on to improve competitiveness. What do you mean with this exactly and what are the action points to do so? Because we thought that SIG is gaining market shares over the last couple of years. What exactly you think needs to improve here? This would be the first question.
Second question, if I may, on the competitiveness. You said in the 2025 release that you are facing more competition in some regions. Can you say from where this coming from? Is this coming from your key competitor? Is it coming from non-system suppliers? The third question, just technical one, please. Can you help us, what do you expect on average selling prices for 2026 and on the raw material price situation, what you're budgeting? Thank you.
Maybe I will start and then hand over to Ann. When I talk about competitiveness, our track record is good. If you look at the customer retention, we don't really lose customers. The lifetime value of the customer, if you think that we place a filler, the lifetime value of then the packaging material and their services is really high. In that sense, we are competitive. Of course, the foundation is Piece of equipment or technology which is absolutely unique and nothing matching that one. The kinda starting point is good. Of course, we are facing all the time competition, so we cannot. It's part of the performance culture that you always need to look ahead. You can't be complacent at any given time, despite our position is good.
When I talk about competitiveness, I would look at still the organizational efficiency. Are we at good level in all the KPIs? I'm just started, so I will be diving into details in the coming weeks and months. Are we efficient organization, how we run the business? Of course, looking at competitiveness in products, looking at competitiveness in packaging material, looking at competitiveness in service. All those three areas have slightly different kind of how you measure competitiveness. One is the technology, one is the product cost, and therefore also the purchasing procurement is very important factor to us. Of course, as a part of the overall competitiveness, has to do with organization efficiency.
Is there ways to simplify how we run the business? Typically, simple is more effective and efficient. I will dive into all KPIs, and I think it's more, as I said, creating that we are competitive also long term. As Ann may explain more detail, we are facing of course competition from non-system suppliers for the packaging material. We've been defending that well because we are not losing any customers. Of course, long term, it's a race that we need to be competitive with a piece of equipment. We need to be competitive in packaging material. We need to have a value-add services so that customers see the value of our technical support and spare parts, so it's going all across.
Yeah. Maybe if I can add on increased competition, I have mentioned that on the slide for Asia. Specifically on the chilled carton business. Where we said additional capacities have been placed in that market in the last two years, and that's also why we think it's not the perfect place for us to be active in the future. Assuming that probably a follow-up question will then be where we stand on finding a strategic partner, let me also comment here. The process is well underway, and we would update as soon as we have something to say. John, you have also asked on sales price developments and raw material cost development.
On the price side, as always, we will have regions that will see price increases driven by inflation, especially, and we will see others where it's probably more stable. On average for the group, I would not believe this plays a major role in 2026. Following now really four years of increasing prices, I think that has also demonstrated the value that we capture with our customers. Why is that, at this moment considered also to be absolutely the right thing? Because the raw material situation for us this year is not so much a discussion topic. Of course, we also monitor that situation carefully now with the situation evolving in the Middle East.
I would also like to remind you that, we have fixed long-term contracts on the paper side, so we know what the price outcomes will be on that front. We apply a hedging for the aluminum and polymers. Of course, there's always an unhedged portion which then fluctuates with the market. At this moment, you don't see us overly excited on that front.
Thank you. One clarification question, please. You mentioned one-off restructuring cash cost in 2026 of around EUR 25 million, right?
Yeah. Overall cash impact of the non-recurrent charge is EUR 25 million for 2026.
Thank you.
The next question from Alessandro Foletti, Octavian. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, Ann, hello, Mr. Keto. Thank you for taking my questions. I also have a couple, one by one. Maybe on the market in the Americas, or maybe more specifically the U.S., you mentioned that you saw certain categories up, more related to dairy, in bag-in-box and spouted pouch with others down. Can you give an indication of what's the size of these two categories so we can sort of understand? I imagine one is growing faster than the other one or old category is going down, new category is coming up, so we can have a view on when this whole business can become positive. Same question on the system, non-system split of sales.
Thanks a lot, Alessandro. Good morning. On the Americas, bag-in-box, spouted pouch, indeed, as we said. Also as we have described in the Investor Update, there is different product lines below. Going into foodservice, going into retail, and also more industrial applications. Although the market overall for foodservice is not yet super exciting and picking up, we believe that we have held up very well and also improved. We had share gains in the foodservice segments, especially in dairy, but also in syrup. The retail business, which is largely the wine business, has been soft.
Wine as a category is a little or alcohol in general is a little under pressure. Also non-system applications that we still had in the U.S. have been very much growing in 2025. Overall, on a net basis, I think this came out slightly positively for the Americas. That's why we are okay with the development in this year in the given markets. Overall for the U.S., I think also the growth of ASAP decarton, again, coming back to why we are expanding the factory in Mexico has been very satisfactory.
Okay. Is it fair to assume that sort of the old declining category still represents 80% of your business and the other one, the new and growing, as more 20%, or am I far away from this?
No. I would say overall, the food service business is clearly more than half of the bag and box, spouted pouch business. Absolutely .
Okay. Right. I have a question on your dealers. You mentioned you will install right about the same number as this year. Now, you have made some impairments last year. Can you use some of those dealers that you have impaired now for the growth that comes this year? Does it have an effect on your CapEx then?
Yeah, of course. I mean, we will not scrap anything that can still be used. Now, that is normal practice also. We have always done it that way, and we will continue to do that. Absolutely. Yeah, if that reverses, we will of course also call it out specifically. Yeah.
Okay, good. Maybe a final one o n the free cash flow. In the bridge, you mentioned already a couple of parts, but maybe can you give an indication on what can be expected from the working capital in 2026?
If I should build a bridge for the EBITDA of 2026, I would assume that the EBITDA, in line with the earnings guidance, should be broadly the same, considering that we will have one quarter of FX overhang, because the appreciation of the euro only started basically in April last year. I would believe that working capital definitely will not see a negative contribution again in 2026. On the other hand, you also need to consider that the land and asset sales, of course, won't repeat, and that we will have the one-off of the restructuring or reorganization that we have called out with EUR 25 million. I think all of this should make you land slightly above EUR 100, probably.
All right. Thank you. That's very helpful. Maybe one very final addition. When you speak about the working capital not see another contribution, you speak about the net working capital or the all included operating net working capital?
Very all included operating working capital.
Okay. Thanks, very clear. Thank you.
The next question is from Benjamin Thielmann, Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hey, good morning, everybody. Hey, Ann. Welcome on board, Mikko. Two questions from my side, if I may. We can take them one by one. First one is on the filler placement. You mentioned, Ann, that in 2026 we can expect a similar number of fillers being placed, and in 2025, 68 new fillers in 2025, 54 were replacement and scrapping. I was just wondering, can we assume a similar mix in 2026 as well in terms of how many new fillers are coming on top and how many are being replaced by the customers? That's the first one. Thank you.
No, Ben, thanks for the question. Good morning. First, I would say, when we talk about filler placements, really the number of new placements is always the more important one, huh? Because that is placements for customers that have a clear plan to sell something, otherwise they wouldn't put out the money for this filler. And capacity of newly installed fillers, of course, is always higher than capacity of old fillers that we take out of the market. On a net-net, it's an estimation that net increase of fillers, but the capacity added is always more.
What do we expect as re-replacement or retirement for 2026? It's always difficult to quantify in the beginning of the year, but I would not expect that it's gonna be a zero or very low number. It's normal course of business. You always have some coming back. The longer the company is successful in the business, of course, also the more likely it is that, some of our fillers, placed in the market are aging and, are being replaced by new fillers of our Group.
Okay. Then maybe a follow-up on the filler placement. you know, we have seen a very strong run rate in the last couple of years. If I look back to 2018, the filler placements in 2025 and 2026 are below the average run rate in the last couple of years. There was an impairment, partly because of underutilized fillers on the customer side. Is that something that worries you as of today? The customers maybe have invested a little bit or over-invested in particularly the years around COVID and shortly after, and we should get used to a lower run rate, or do you think this is a temporarily lower run rate?
Ben, I think we always say 60-80 new placements in a year is the corridor that helps us to continue our market share gain trajectory. Yes, the number has been elevated couple of years ago, but that also was on the back of the introduction of new EU regulation, where our customers, especially in Europe, had to revisit their fleet and then made more often a choice for SIG than normal. Also, considering the fact that we have a USP with the flexibility on sizes that we produce on a given filler, that also attracted significant attention of customers, of course, and continues to do so during the time of shrinkflation.
I would rather explain it with positive one-offs that we have seen in the last couple of years than with we now see a negative environment. It's within 60-80, everything is good enough to sustain our pace.
Okay. Perfect. Then maybe a last one, if I may, would be on competition. It seems that pricing is not a big issue for you guys in 2026, which is clearly good. I was just wondering, has anything changed in the competitive landscape recently? We have seen that, for example, Lamipak has launched a gable top carton. Is there anything that you would flag? It seems like you continue to gain market share if I look at the numbers of your peers. Any pressure on pricing from any new competitors? It doesn't seem like it, but I'm a little bit surprised. Any color on how you view the competitive landscape as of today compared to maybe last year?
I think the competitive landscape overall hasn't changed. The non-system suppliers have been around for many years. They basically provide roll fed systems, not sleeve fed systems. That said, we always need to, of course, be vigilant, make sure that we remain competitive and that we drive innovation in the market so that customers want to choose SIG also for the future. That is exactly what we do. We're never gonna become complacent or stop innovating and driving our system forward. At this moment, I wouldn't see any reason to be looking at the world differently than before.
Okay. Perfect. Thank you very much, Ann. I'm going back into the queue.
Thanks, Ben.
The next question from Pallav Mittal, Barclays, please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I'll take it one by one. Firstly, you highlighted Americas was strong and one reason was the growth in Mexico. Given the environment in Mexico at the moment, we have seen some staples companies highlight it as a tough environment. How should we think about that for SIG in 2026? Are you seeing any impact on your operations so far?
Good morning, Pallav. No, our operation in Mexico is running stable. Of course, we monitor also this one very carefully because the safety of our teams is the most important thing for us. We don't have any disruption there or any problems to report at this moment.
Sure. Secondly, at the top end of your margin guidance, EBIT margin for this year, 15.7%-16.2%, you will be quite close to the 16.5% guidance that you have for your midterm. Given that you're not expecting any significant market improvement this year, is it fair to think that the margins could be much higher than that 16.5% that you've indicated in the outer years?
Yeah. As we have discussed in the Investor Update in October, we see this midterm guidance really as a midterm guidance and not as a long-term guidance. Of course, as Mikko has indicated, the company aspires to get better every year. Of course, we also would target a higher number. We will update once we get there. I think until then, the 16 .5 is a nice yardstick to use for the time being as a midterm guidance.
I think, of course, there's still a cost inflation in the cost base. Every year, there's, depending on the market, 4% + in inflation on the SG&A, which is kinda coming to all the companies. It's putting pressure. Of course, we are looking at competitiveness long term, and I think, we will detail that then, maybe later in the year what is our long-term plans. I think, it's good to understand that there's also cost inflation, of course, in the cost base of the company, which is putting some pressure.
Sure. Thanks, Mikko, and congratulations. Lastly, if I can just squeeze one in? Is there any update on the litigation? Any updates on the court? How should we think about that?
No. There is no update on the litigation process, that is running as per the timeline. We also have not come to a different assessment of the case, and it's still considered to be a contingent liability, and you find it disclosed in note 33 of the annual report.
Thank you.
Welcome.
The next question from Manuel Lang, from Vontobel. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, Ann. Good morning, Mr. Keto. I have a question regarding the midterm outlook as well. More on the growth side. There you see some growth returned in the last quarter to positive territory, but you still expect muted growth this year. What's the current indication or let's say run rate, if you will, that you see on the end market in the different substrates and regions? Maybe a second question more specifically on India. You mentioned the region was impacted by weather effects last year, but what's your view on the utilization of the plant in India currently and also let's say, midterm? Thank you.
Good morning, Manuel. On the midterm or sorry, on the, on the guidance that we see right now, 0%-2% indeed, as said, that we saw a strong sequential improvement in the fourth quarter gives us confidence to be in this guidance range in 2026. If we should discuss this by region, I think we should expect that Europe continues to be on this normal level that you should expect from a mature market. America's ahead of this, of course. Asia, I think we have reached something like a bottom level. Let's see how that continues in China. Then India, Middle East, Africa, I would have said up until Friday, of course, they will return to growth and will be our strongest growth region.
The team in the region is very familiar with disruption and lumpy development. We're very confident that they will help handle the situation also under these circumstances in a decent way. You know, I think that's the outlook on the growth side. On India, indeed, last year, we have discussed, like many companies, quite a lot, the longer monsoon season, which impacted revenue growth. I mean, I can't give you now the weather forecast for in two months or so, but at this moment, we see a slightly more positive development from India, but definitely behind the expectations that we have had a couple of years ago. It will be definitely a positive contributor to growth.
Okay, thank you. Very clear. I have maybe one follow-up on the fourth quarter growth. How much do you think, if you can share that, was driven by the volume incentives for clients? What's really, let's say, the underlying improvements in volume growth?
I would say that wasn't really driven by any incentives. That also you see, I think if you look at the development by region. Really the strong 4% that we had in Europe was driven by lower raw milk prices and really more milk being packed in aseptic carton. Also in Asia, the negative number. I mean, that is a function of the occurrence of Chinese New Year. I think the rebates really didn't play a role too much. That said, of course, the fourth quarter remains our largest quarter and probably also will continue to remain our largest quarter in the future.
Okay, thank you very much.
We have a follow-up question from Ioannis Masvoulas, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking the follow-up. Just looking at slide 4 where you show the growth, the revenue growth in bag and boxes, pouch at -3.4%. Could you give us an idea what the underlying revenue growth would be if we were to exclude the non-core parts of bag and box, especially wine, just to get a sense on the earnings power of what you consider or revenue growth power of what you consider as core? Thank you.
Ioannis, I don't want to now kill you with all the details, but it's very clear that the core segments within that portfolio, of course, have performed much better than the -3.4% that you see for the overall. We need to consider the market environment in food service, especially in the U.S., which has not yet been growing significantly again. I think you see the clear spread in the growth rates between the two boxes, if you want. The core business was slightly positive.
Very helpful. Thank you.
Okay.
We have some online questions.
Yep.
If I could address those, please. "Your guidance, does it include the guidance for revenue 2026? Does it include any perimeter changes you anticipate as you look to exit non-core operations?" From Charlie at BNP Paribas.
Our guidance for 2026 on the growth side is an organic growth guidance. Should we achieve any divestment in the year, of course, we will exclude that from the perimeter.
An additional one for Charlie. "What depreciation and amortization charge do you expect in 2026, including or excluding amortization of acquired intangibles?"
Charlie, I would point you to the backup slide that we have provided. I hope that that would be helpful for you also.
Christian Arnold from ODDO BHF. "Could you quantify the negative effect of the later timing of Chinese New Year compared to the previous year? Does it mean that you will have a positive impact on Q1 2026 in the same magnitude?"
Christian, thank you very much. It's of course impossible to perfectly quantify it, but indeed, as we saw a weaker Q4 in Asia-Pacific, we should expect a slightly better Q1, that basically builds on the positive seasonality here. Overall, let me again come back to how do we say or how do we expect the growth for 2026 to play out between the different quarters. Please take and continue to bear in mind that we had a bit of a special seasonality in 2025 with a much stronger first quarter and also stronger second quarter. I would expect that the comps also play a role in the seasonality of 2025, but there's this positive one probably from Chinese New Year running against it.
Also from Christian, "Could you tell us to what extent you are changing, increasing your prices in 2026?"
Yeah. As said, we believe that price increases, doesn't play a big role also on the back of, not too much inflation on the raw material cost side for 2026.
Andthen, from Ashish at Citi. "How do you think about restructuring charges in 2026?"
Yeah. All the restructuring charges relating to the measures that we have announced at the Investor Update in October have been recognized in 2025, and we will just see the cash outflow relating to this still in the first half of the year, probably.
That's all. Very good. Okay. Operator, do we have any more questions on the line?
At the moment, there are no more questions.
Wonderful. Thank you very much for your questions, everybody, and for your time this morning. I hope you take away SIG has a clear path forward for value creation underpinned by a resilient business model and strong customer relationships. We remain firmly focused on disciplined and consistent execution. We appreciate your continued interest in the company and look forward to updating you on our progress over the coming months and quarters. Have a wonderful rest of the day.
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