Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us. I'm Ingrid McMahon, Head of Investor Relations, and with me today hosting the call is Samuel Sigrist, CEO, and Ann-Kristin Erkens, CFO. The slides for the call are available for download on our investor website. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements involving risks and uncertainties that may cause results to differ materially from those statements. A full cautionary statement and disclaimer can be found on slide two of the presentation, which participants are encouraged to read carefully. With that, let me hand you over to Samuel.
Good morning, everyone. I'm delighted to have Ann here with me today for her first full-year results presentation as the CFO of SIG. And I would like to take this opportunity also to thank Jens and Timo, who took on the interim role as CFO for the last year. As many of you know, Ann joins from Henkel, where she was the CFO of the Adhesive Technologies business, which has reported sales over EUR 11 billion in 2022. SIG's strong revenue performance in 2023 reflects our ability to successfully navigate a challenging economic environment and end-market softness. Due to our flexible and superior product offerings and strong customer relationships, we were able to fully recover prior cost inflation through price increases, while overall volumes in aseptic were flat in a difficult market environment. Our aseptic carton business grew 7.4% for the year.
Our chilled carton business delivered robust growth throughout the year, and the bag-in-box and spouted pouch business grew 5.6%. Under our ownership, we are seeing an acceleration of growth in the new businesses. In bag-in-box and spouted pouch, the pro forma growth on a constant currency basis and excluding the impact of the resin escalator was 5.6%. On a simple constant currency basis, bag-in-box and spouted pouch grew 2.9%. Growth was largely driven by volume and market share gains. We continue to identify and to realize cross-selling wins between our different substrates, underpinning our strategy to offer a broader product portfolio to our food and beverage customers. We are developing regional market capabilities, especially in emerging markets. Furthermore, we are bringing together our global technology expertise between our aseptic carton and bag-in-box and spouted pouch businesses.
In 2023, we launched our second-generation aseptic spouted pouch filling machine with the same sterilization process as we use in our aseptic cartons, and we are already working on the third generation. This will improve the total cost of ownership for our customers, which is key for the successful adoption of our spouted pouch business at scale. In bag-in-box, we continue to develop food service opportunities as we position the substrate as an enabler for automation of the sector. This further embeds SIG with the leading multinational food service companies who operate tens of thousands of quick-service restaurants globally. For the second year in a row, the group placed over 90 aseptic carton filling machines, well above the historic average of 50-60 per year. This resulted in a high level of filler CapEx.
We continue to see excellent opportunities to place fillers into 2024 and see this as a leading indicator for future growth. In 2023, we expanded our manufacturing capabilities around the world with the ramp-up of our Aseptic carton sleeves plant in Mexico, the start of construction of the group's first Aseptic carton plant in India, bag-in-box capacity expansion in the U.S., the expansion of our chilled carton facilities in China, and the commencement of digital printing in Europe. These investments are driven by market share gains and new customer wins and underpin our growth momentum. We have a well-invested asset base, and once these facilities have ramped up, we expect to benefit from operating efficiencies and lower conversion costs. Lastly, we continue to launch exciting innovations, which will further support future growth.
A highlight in 2023 was the commercial launch of SIG Dome Mini, our single-serve carton that is shaped like a bottle, with our first customer in China. We are very proud of our sustainability leadership, and we continue our best-in-class ESG performance and disclosure. We firmly believe that sustainable packaging has to be the lowest carbon solution, which is achieved with the use of regenerative materials that are sustainably sourced and kept in circulation. Our strong focus on innovation is driving progress towards more sustainable and even lower carbon packaging solutions. We have set new targets to offer full-barrier aseptic carton with at least 85% paper content, excluding the closure, by 2025, and at least 90%, including the closure, by 2030, this enabling our cartons to be recycled in regions where only paper recycling streams are available.
For bag-in-box and spout-to-pouch, we have committed to offer recycle-ready solutions for all our relevant market segments by 2025. In 2023, SIG received approval for our net-zero target from the Science Based Targets initiative. We have committed to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions across our value chain by 2050. And of the 2,000+ companies globally with such a public net-zero pledge, SIG was amongst the first 325 companies to have its targets validated and approved. Turning now to the financial highlights of 2023, SIG delivered another year of strong financial performance. Organic revenue growth for our Aseptic carton business was 7.4%, which is a testimony to our strong business model and our ability to secure price increases. Total revenue growth at constant currency was 18.5%, driven by the annualization of the prior year acquisitions.
You may recall that our revenue guidance for 2023 was excluding the impact of the resin escalator in the bag-in-box and spout-to-pouch business. On this basis, total constant currency growth was 19% for the group. In general, performance of all our packaging substrates was ahead of the market due to share gains in core segments. We are also pleased to continue to secure new cross-selling wins in bag-in-box, spout-to-pouch, and carton. The group's Adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 24.9% compared with 23.5% in 2022. The 140 basis points increase was at the top end of our guidance range of 50-150 basis points improvement. Strong cash flow generation enabled a significant increase in capital expenditure of over EUR 100 million, as well as of over EUR 220 million of gross debt repayment. Thanks primarily to our strong Adjusted EBITDA, our leverage has reduced to 2.7x.
We are proposing an increase in the dividend to CHF 0.48 from CHF 0.47 per share the prior year. The group has amended its definition of return on capital employed, which Ann will explain in detail shortly, but I'm pleased to report a post-tax return of 27% compared with 25% in 2022. A brief look at our Q4 financial highlights shows constant currency revenue growth for all substrates of 5.6%, while organic growth of the aseptic carton was a strong 8%. Adjusted EBITDA margin was in line with Q3 at 24.8% and very slightly below the full-year average. Free cash flow generation of EUR 300 million was strong, given the collection of upfront cash payments as expected. Organic aseptic carton revenue growth in Europe on a constant currency basis was 9.9%. Including bag-in-box and spout-to-pouch, revenue increased by 17.1% at constant currency.
In Aseptic carton, price increases that were necessary to offset cost inflation were successfully implemented in 2023. Europe's margin was the most impacted by higher raw material and energy costs in 2022. The region continued its trajectory of share gains in Aseptic carton, winning new fillers in food, dairy, and plant-based milk alternatives. Geographic expansion also contributed to growth with new business in northern and eastern Europe. Bag-in-box and spout-to-pouch saw strong volume growth for the year, supported by growth with our top customers in spout-to-pouch. Overall, the region delivered a significant margin improvement with an increase of 450 basis points compared with 2022. This was despite dilution from acquisitions and reflected cost recovery through price increases. These slides reflect our new regional grouping of India with the Middle East and Africa. In 2023, organic growth on a constant currency basis for IMEA was 9.9%.
This was a strong performance, given that growth in Middle East and Africa was negative in quarter two due to temporary foreign currency restrictions for customers in Egypt. Including the bag-in-box and spout-to-pouch businesses, revenue increased by 11.3% at constant currency. Revenue growth in the region benefited from price increases to offset cost inflation and from the ramp-up of new filling lines in South Africa and Saudi Arabia. Liquid dairy remained a key growth driver, while we also saw customers in Nigeria and South Africa use our cartons to expand into the food and culinary categories. India recorded significant revenue growth as well as demand for new filling lines. As of 31st December 2023, around 40 filling lines have been placed with customers. Construction of our first aseptic carton plant in India is on track, and we expect to commence production late 2024.
Adjusted EBITDA margin for the region increased 140 basis points, driven by price increases to recover cost inflation and normalization of freight rates compared with 2022. This was partly offset by ramp-up costs in India. These slides reflect our new regional segmentation and now exclude India. In Asia-Pacific, revenue growth at constant currency, including bag-in-box, spout-to-pouch, and chilled carton, was 13.9%. Organic Aseptic carton revenue growth at constant currency was 1.5%. Aseptic carton volumes were affected by the COVID-19 outbreak in China in the first quarter of the year and by the timing of Chinese New Year. Volumes subsequently recovered strongly over the course of the year. The region saw good volume growth in Southeast Asia, notably Vietnam, as the group's volume flexibility helped customers to tackle inflation. Chilled carton showed strong volume growth in the region, especially in China.
The business is achieving growth ahead of the market due to product improvements and enhanced customer service in line with SIG's quality standards. The margin performance for the year reflects annualization of the acquired businesses, partly offset by price increases. Revenue growth at constant currency was 29.4%, including the contribution from bag-in-box and spout-to-pouch. Organic revenue growth of aseptic carton on a constant currency basis was 10.8%. In aseptic carton, the Americas delivered robust growth across the region. Price increases to offset cost inflation and the deployment of new filling lines for portion packs contributed to growth, especially in Brazil. SIG continues to win new business due to its unique ability to offer flexible packaging sizes, enabling customers to manage the impact of higher input costs for the food and beverage they pack.
In the U.S., both aseptic carton and bag-in-box expanded in food service, while private label and school milk performed well in the aseptic carton. We were pleased to ramp up production of our new aseptic carton plant in Mexico. The new plant has been well received by our customers and has helped to unlock new market opportunities and to reduce delivery times. Revenue growth of bag-in-box and spout-to-pouch was above the market despite high prior-year performance, as the business continued to gain share and began to implement value-based pricing. The full-year margin improvement of 300 basis points was driven by positive pricing in mixed effects, offset by dilution from acquisitions. Now I shall hand you over to Ann-Kristin for a more detailed review of the financials. Ann-Kristin.
Thank you, Samuel. And good morning, everyone. I'm delighted to be here with you today.
So let's start by looking at the full-year Adjusted EBITDA bridge. The strong revenue growth contribution of EUR 168 million was primarily driven by price to recover cost inflation. Higher raw material costs mainly reflected increased polymer costs hedged at 2022 price levels, in line with our hedging policy, and liquid paperboard price increases in the low single digits. Lower freight rates helped to reduce production costs for the year. SG&A costs reflected the lower capitalization of R&D, the regional expansion, as well as wage inflation. The acquisitions contributed EUR 51 million to the Adjusted EBITDA for the period up to the annualization. Thereafter, the results are reported within the business segments of the Adjusted EBITDA bridge. Overall, the group Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 140 basis points over prior year to 24.9%.
This includes 110 basis points dilution from acquisitions and 140 basis points dilution from price increases to recover cost inflation. This was more than offset by 40 basis points of FX and the net improvement of the underlying performance of the business of 350 basis points. The aseptic carton margin increased by 340 basis points to 27.9%, which is a very strong performance. This slide details the reconciliation from EBITDA to adjusted EBITDA. Compared with the adjusted number, the reported EBITDA reflects, firstly, on the contingent consideration, there was no earnout for the year ended 2023, given that the business did not achieve a growth rate above the company's midterm guidance. As such, there's a reversal of the provision for EUR 58 million. For the next two years, there is still a provision based on growth rate that is slightly above the company's midterm guidance.
Secondly, there's an adjustment for the net movement in non-cash, unrealized commodity, and foreign currency hedging positions. The movement in 2023 was positive compared to a loss in 2022. Finally, integration costs and a reversal of an acquisition-related provision are added back to the Adjusted EBITDA. On the next slide, we detail the reconciliation from profit for the period to adjusted net income. The largest adjustment to net income was the Onex PPA depreciation amortization. This arose from the acquisition accounting when the group was acquired by Onex in 2015. This amortization will cease after the first quarter of 2025. PPA amortization for other acquisitions relates to all other acquisitions by the group. The increase in this amount reflects the annualization of the ownership compared to the prior year. Moving to page 16.
The gross CapEx increased by EUR 116 million, reflecting growth investments for aseptic carton, such as the new plants in Mexico and India, the expansion of the bag-in-box, spout-to-pouch, and chilled carton operations, as well as construction of filling lines given the high demand for our fillers in the market, as mentioned earlier by Samuel. Upfront cash was 63% of filler capital expenditure compared with 78% in 2022. As such, the net CapEx at just below 8% of revenue was within our guided range of 7%-9%. As mentioned, we were delighted to place another 91 fillers in field in 2023 in line with 2022. Some of the fillers retired during the year will be reconfigured and redeployed with other customers. As a reminder, new fillers placed in field have significantly higher capacity and also utilization than the retired fillers. Turning now to free cash flow.
Net cash from operating activities increased by EUR 85 million to EUR 663 million. The free cash flow was EUR 219 million, a EUR 44 million decrease compared with 2022. A positive adjusted EBITDA contribution of EUR 151 million was offset by EUR 73 million of higher interest payments and an increase in net CapEx of EUR 107 million. In 2023, we expanded our securitization program to bag-in-box customers in the U.S.A. with an amount of approximately EUR 16 million. An increase in lease liabilities for land and buildings is related to the group's manufacturing expansion. As the group has expanded over the recent years, we believe it is right to include right-of-use assets in the new definition of our return on capital employed calculation. I will discuss this shortly. Net debt was broadly in line with prior year.
A strong Adjusted EBITDA performance over the last 12 months positively contributed to the net leverage ratio, which was 2.7 at the end of December 2023 compared to 3.1 end of 2022. Gross debt was reduced by EUR 227 million in 2023, and we have commenced working on the refinancing plan for our 2025 maturities. Following the acquisitions of chilled carton, bag-in-box, and spout-to-pouch in 2022, the group is on track to reduce net leverage to its target of around 2.5 by the end of 2024. Return on capital employed is an important metric for us to assess the operational efficiency of our business. The group has amended its definition of return on capital employed to include right-of-use assets, capitalized development and IT costs, and non-current deferred revenue.
The amendments reflect the increased use of leases for lands and buildings in relation to our new manufacturing facilities, our investments in innovation, and cash received from customers for filling lines accounted for as leases. As a result, return on capital employed for 2023 was 27% post-tax based on our new definition compared with 30% based on our prior definition. Return on capital employed has also increased compared with 2022. We aim for return on capital employed to increase over the midterm as a function of EBITDA improvement and asset efficiency. Now let's turn to the financial guidance. We expect total revenue growth at the low end of the 4%-6% midterm guidance range. This reflects our expectations that volume growth will be geared towards the second half of 2024.
As a reminder, the resin escalator for the bag-in-box and spout-to-pouch businesses, which passes on movements in resin costs directly to customers, is not included in the guidance. The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be within the lower half of the 25%-26% range. This is subject to input costs and foreign currency volatility. We believe operating leverage and acquisition synergies will positively contribute to adjusted EBITDA margin development, which will be partly offset by higher SG&A, reflecting investments in innovation and regional expansion, and of course, wage inflation. Net capital expenditure is projected to be at the lower end of the group's target of 7%-9% of revenue and the dividend payout ratio within the 50%-60% of adjusted net income. The adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be between 26%-28%. Our midterm financial guidance remains unchanged.
Revenue guidance for constant currency growth is in the upper half of the 4%-6% range. This will be driven by geographic expansion, revenue synergies between the packaging substrates, and innovation. We are determined to achieve an adjusted EBITDA margin of above 27% for the enlarged business. Key drivers of our adjusted EBITDA margin improvement include revenue growth at higher price points driven by an increasing share of aseptic business in bag-in-box and spout-to-pouch, growth in emerging markets where margins are above average, and the launch of innovative packaging formats. On the cost side, the margin improvement drivers include scale effects in cost of goods and overheads, production efficiencies, and the realization of M&A synergies, mainly in sourcing and manufacturing areas. The cash generation of the business will enable us to invest in growth opportunities while delivering progressive increases in dividend per share and reducing the group's net leverage.
That's the end of my section, and I now hand back to Samuel for the conclusion.
Thank you, Ann. With this final slide, I would like to reiterate our confidence in our business model. In 2023, SIG's financial results demonstrated our strong business model amid market softness for the end consumer. We continue to make investments in the asset base while at the same time reducing debt and leverage. Our enlarged product portfolio and established platform are ideally positioned to capture growth going forward. Our leading innovation with its focus on sustainability will enable us to meet the regulatory requirements and supply customers and consumers with ever more sustainable packaging. We are confident that we can continue our track record of above-market growth and best-in-class profitability to create superior value for our shareholders in the years ahead. That concludes our presentation, and we are now happy to take your questions.
We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handset while asking a question. Webcast viewers may submit their questions in writing via the relevant field. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question comes from the line of Gaurav Jain , Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. So I have a couple of questions. Firstly, can you please talk about what should we expect in terms of the net new filler installations in 2024?
And secondly, can you please help us understand what could the impact be of the resin escalator in this year?
Good morning. Thanks for your question, Gaurav . So you saw the filler placements for 2023 with over 90, and then I guess that triggers your question as well as the number of fillers retired. As we have said in earlier calls and meetings, we focus on the gross number because that's a leading indicator for future growth. As you recall, the fillers we place have a significantly higher not only nameplate capacity but also utilization because both customers and us need to sweat the asset. The ones that we retire, they have very low utilization or in some instances are only spare capacity that the customers may use or not.
Last year, especially, we had a bit of a more elevated number because there were some plant network consolidations among our customers. You recall with Hochwald, the win where we were able to double our share of wallet that went along with the greenfield plant and at the same time, they retired some other plants. So for this year, and I said it already in the Q3 call when we were talking about pipeline for 2024, we do see that there is continued strong demand for aseptic filling machines, and we are very pleased to see that. That doesn't necessarily mean that I expect another year with 90+ fillers, but I would also say it's going to be above what we historically have seen. So we're very, very pleased with this pipeline.
We don't predict the number of fillers retired, as I just said, because we don't think that's a very relevant number. It is because the net kind of works out to have the correct number of fillers in fields, but we focus on the gross number. On the resin escalator, Ann.
Yeah. Let me take that. So on the resin escalator outlook for 2024, so that is, of course, subject to market resin price movements during the year. However, the number we are looking at is slightly lower than what we have seen so far for this year, but as said, that can change over the year.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Jörn Iffert, UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Hi, Samuel. Can you hear me? Very well, Jörn. Good morning. Thank you. Maybe two to three questions.
The first one, given the muted environment we are in right now, do you provide your customers with incremental discounts, or are you passing on low raw material costs to support your volume acceleration? This will be the first question, please.
Maybe we take them one by one. No, we don't do that. I mean, we have existing rebate scales that are in place, right? So you're familiar with the way how we structure our commercial arrangements with our customers, and we give an incentive to do a bit more volume with us in a given year. But those will not change in magnitude, so we don't change our practice there. And as you also recall, pricing is done normally in the first quarter, can drag a bit into the second, and that's a function of multiple topics. It's, of course, input cost changes. It's the value-based pricing.
As we price for the value we create for our customers, if they use more of our USPs, that also has an impact on pricing. And it's the way how we price for innovation that we face during a given year as innovation runs out of installed base. Already in earlier indications or conversations, we indicated that we don't expect pricing to play a material role in our growth rate this year. So we move back to this kind of concept of this 4%-6% corridor that we used to have also prior to acquisitions where pricing was always there but never really the material part. So it's all about volume growth this year.
Okay. And this would be also a follow-up question, the second question out of three questions in total, if I may.
How do you think about the end-market volume growth in aseptic and bag-in-box at the moment, and what do you expect for the near term? I mean, shall we think about first-half volume-driven organic sales is low single digit or more flattish so that we have a rough feeling how you perform versus the market near term?
Sure. I mean, our view on the resilience of our end market has not changed. Yet our end markets were tested last year and the year before as a function of inflation for food products, for food products on shelf where, especially also in emerging markets, consumers were forced to reduce the quantity and frequency how they bought food products. And that created this end-market softness.
Now, we believe that end market's going to resume growth and recover towards the second half this year as we see slowing inflation, especially when it comes to food products. Already last year, and you might recall in the Q3 call, we talked about Brazil where the milk price has kind of come down already, and we saw immediate pickup also in volume there. So that's obviously anecdotal on one category in one country, but we expect that trend to continue, and that's why we believe that end market's going to resume growth. And when it comes to the phasing of the year, I mean, we don't provide now quarterly guidance of our growth rate, but we have said we expect that rather to be back-end loaded means rather stronger growth in H2.
Okay. And then maybe the final question, if I may, more a big picture question.
At the end of the day, a little bit wanted to figure out what is the equity cash flow power you can have in 2025 and 2026. I mean, your cash flow is more or less in 2023 similar to 2020 before you made the investments for Scholle, etc. So when CapEx, I mean, how shall we think about this for 2025? How shall we think about working capital? So can you really unlock the equity cash flow potential already in 2025 reaching maybe EUR 300 million-EUR 400 million?
I mean, the way we think about our net CapEx with the 7%-9%, we're normally comfortable to operate at the lower end of that, right? And you heard me saying that before, and that hasn't changed. I think we also went now through a period of major investments.
We expanded our plant footprint, and we have gained access to new territories. And I think naturally, you could expect us now to focus on really getting the returns on those because you're familiar with our return focus in every investment we do. You saw the ROCE also with the updated definition. So I think from that perspective, we continue to be very focused on that. And I think the business has proven in multiple situations its cash-generative nature, and that is going to help there too. When it comes to net working capital, Ann, I don't know whether you want to add some color there, but we have seen it has become a source of cash. And.
Yeah. I think in 2023, we were able to reduce, for example, the inventory coverage by two days. So we're not yet back at the 2021 levels, so prior COVID.
But clearly, you see an improvement this year, and we're going to continue that path going forward also.
Okay. Thanks. I go back in the queue.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Christian Arnold from Stifel. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, all. Maybe follow-up question on the pricing. So you were saying it will be in, let's say, normal range, so very, very little, if any. I wonder, do we have a seasonal impact here in 2023? Have you increased pricing during the year? So you actually do have a price impact, the positive one, at the beginning of the year, or we should calculate with, let's say, very little price impact for all quarters?
Yeah. That's a good question, Christian.
I mean, you recall 2022, we indeed had a bit of a different price impacts by quarter as we kind of picked up our pricing efforts during the year. 2023, already, we said we expect pricing to be more evenly distributed. Hence, so the baseline for 2024 is a more even price effect. So I don't expect there are significant differences between the quarters.
Okay. Very good. On the financial liabilities, could you remind me how much is based on variable interest and how much is fixed? And then do you foresee any changes in this mix?
Yeah. So at the moment, we are slightly below 50% variable sorry, fixed, and so slightly higher variable component. And over time, when we now look into how we want to set up our new maturities, we at the moment look at potentially increasing the fixed share slightly.
But 50/50 is probably a good guidance.
Okay. Thank you. Then on the margin development, I mean, in recent calls, you always mentioned we don't have this seasonal margin development anymore during the quarters on the back of the acquisitions. But I would have assumed still there is a little bit of a seasonal margin development. So I was a little bit surprised by, let's say, the margin development in Q4. I expected a higher margin there. Were there any extraordinary impacts on the margin development in Q4?
That's a good question. And we discussed it throughout the earnings call last year, right, where we said we expect our margin, which was always very much back-end loaded, to be more even over the course of the year. And I think that's exactly what also has happened and what you see in 2023.
The outlier is Q2 where we had very positive mix effects. But other than that, you saw kind of very stable margin evolution over the course of the year. Now, when it comes so I think from that perspective, what we described is going to happen, happened. And the reason for that was the acquisitions, yes, on the one-hand side, but then also markets like India, they complement seasonality because they have the stronger part of their year in the early part of the year. So these things helped. Now, going into 2024, that's probably the exception of the new rule because obviously, as we said, as we expect growth to be more back-end loaded, that will also have an impact on the margin again. But it doesn't mean that we say that's going back to the old normal. I think the new pattern holds true.
The exception is now 2024 because of the back-end loader growth.
Okay. Thank you for that. And maybe last question on the fillers, the 62 replaced fillers. I mean, is this more a thing based on an aging asset base, or is it more of an optimal capacity utilization that you had to, yeah, replace fillers? And shall we think about this kind of larger number also going forward?
Yeah. I mean, I understand that it attracts attention because obviously, it is a bigger number than in prior years. I mean, to give you a bit of additional color, what we saw this year, and I said that before, about one-third, give or take, was as a function of footprint rationalization where customers did bring new plants together or closed some plants. And that doesn't mean we lose them, as the case of Hochwald demonstrated.
We were even able to kind of double our share of volume in such a situation. But then also, if you look from a global perspective where we add capacity, are the markets where there's growth? Are the categories where there's growth? And if there is decline in per capita consumption in Europe for juice, I mean, then at one point, those fillers, they have anyway a low utilization, and at one point, they get retired because there's just overcapacity for one category in one market. But our view is, as we look at those fillers as kind of cash-generating units, what matters is the number of packs that we fill on a given filler in a year. That's the utilization.
And that's why we always remind people, "Don't get hung up with the number of fillers retired because they weren't the ones that generated the revenue, but look at the ones that we placed because they are the ones that demonstrate we keep winning share." And so we don't guide or forecast now the number for 2024, but I would say 2023 was a bit of a higher one.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Charlie Shah, BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I just wanted to revisit a couple, please. Firstly, could you tell us what was the achieved price increase on sleeves in 2023? On the resin price escalator, sorry, could you be a bit more explicit about the outlook for 2024 based on where resin prices are today?
Are we talking about 100 basis points drag to the group, for example? And can you just link it in with that, can you just clarify that organic growth going forward will include all of the businesses? It's just that resin price effect that you will be stripping out. And then lastly, could you quantify how much you're seeing liquid paperboard prices moving in 2024? Thank you.
Thanks, Charlie. I mean, price increase, you recall, we only during the period of the high inflation in 2022 started to dissect our growth rate for the aseptic carton into price versus volume mix. And then early last year, we have stopped this practice again. But at the same time, I mean, we said aseptic volumes are flat. So that suggests that the 7.4% is basically predominantly price. Resin escalator, I mean, we don't give a guidance for the resin escalator.
Whatever we say, it's going to be wrong because the market's going to move. And that's why our guidance for the total group is going to be a constant currency and basically a constant resin, if you so want. And the organic growth guidance 2024 obviously includes all the substrates. LPB, no change to the past. I mean, if there are price adjustments in our multi-year supply agreements, then we expect them to be rather on the lower single-digit % level. Does that answer your questions?
Yes. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Gianluca Pediconi, MOMentum. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I have actually two questions. The first one is more qualitative. In, let's say, mid-term 2025, how much the innovative technology, the innovation will account for your expected revenues?
Just a broad number for me would be enough. And the second question is on China and India. So if on China, you can give us a little bit more color about how your relationship with Luckin Coffee is going. And in India, any outlook, any color also on the penetration of the aseptic carton, see if it is improving in terms of mid-term expectation or there is no change compared to the last time I could recall. Thank you.
Thanks for your question, Gianluca. I mean, on the share of innovation in terms of percentage of total revenue, we haven't disclosed that as such. But to give you a bit of a flavor, I think innovation is very relevant when it comes to a growth rate within a given year because it helps us to also price for the value we create there.
It's a part of the incremental volume that we sell in a given year. Now lately, SIG Dome Mini, also the SIG Neo, the fourth-generation platform, also the alu-free compound structures, all of those got to be very measurable also in our top-line growth in a given year. But also in terms of total share, I mean, to give you a broad number, I think it's somewhere south of the 20%, but it is a very relevant one. And I also do think that the innovation helped us to achieve those placements over the past two years. It is over 90 fillers because people want to opt for a future-proof system, and they see the innovation that SIG brings to market and the fact that it runs over the installed base.
And may I say just a follow-up question?
The innovation penetration or the innovation rate is steady, is not decreasing over the next two to three years based on your?
No, I would say it's steady.
Okay. Great.
Yes. We also doubled down on R&D investment.
Perfect.
China, I mean, Luckin Coffee, as you might recall from the Capital Markets Day where we talked about that, our concept is to bring bag-in-box now for automation to the sector. Means that you have dispensing systems in quick-service restaurants. And that's where we make good progress. But we are now, I would say, in a bit of a proof-of-concept phase and not yet in a phase where we have implemented in many stores the concept. And Luckin Coffee for us is a bit of a synonym for the reference of the category in the country. I mean, there are many more. You have McCafé.
You have Starbucks, which creates 600 stores in any given year. You have other local players. All of them, we address with those solutions. But in three-year times, it may be material, or is it still too early? Right now, it's not. No, right now, I know. But in three-year times, it can be something. No, in three-year times, I think it's going to be of our bag-in-box. It's about the pouch growth. It's going to be a material part where we're going to deliver the food service in China. So that's a key part of where we want to grow. India, I can answer that very quickly, very high-level. Market kept growing. We are super excited about the progress. There is growth across all categories, dairy and non-carbonated soft drinks. I think overall, the Indian economy and the market has held up very well.
Thank you very much, and congrats for both the results and the outlook. Thank you.
Thank you, Gianluca.
The next question comes from the line of Alessandro Foletti, Octavian. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my questions. I would like to ask three, if I can, and then maybe a follow-up. On the seasonality for 2024, you mentioned already the lower sales, i.e., also the lower margin. Then when I look at your CapEx pattern, it might actually be stronger in H1 than in H2. And in 2023, we had -EUR 200 million free cash flow in H1 and +EUR 400 million in H2, give or take. Can you give an indication for 2024 how this will look like?
Yeah. Alessandro, maybe I take that one. So overall, as said, we expect for 2024 a higher free cash flow generation than for 2023.
This is in line with our standard seasonality, however, amplified by the volume expectations, which are more skewed towards the second half of the year. CapEx, again, following the investment opportunities into fillers, more front-loaded. I guess that's a bit the summary for the year.
Right. Thank you. I guess I have understood correctly. The second question is related to Scholle. The trend was very strong. It was the end of 2022, beginning 2023. Then it was kind of flattish in Q3. When I look at the numbers, it was probably down in Q4. I guess you mentioned the basis effect, which means it could be challenging also in Q1, Q2, 2024. When do you think it will go back to growth?
Yeah. I think you described that very well. That's exactly how we look at it.
The 2022 H2 was a very strong growth, above 10%. Q1 last year, I think it was around 18%. So we're going to have for Q1 2024, very strong comps for bag-in-box and spout-to-pouch. And I think post that, obviously, we expect that to ease and to have comps that are easier to beat.
And what is that makes you this would be my follow-up. What is that makes you confident that this was not just a sudden burst, but that growth really will kick in in second half of 2024 and then sort of trot ahead a little bit more sustainably?
You mean across all substrates, or you mean?
No, I'm talking Scholle. Sorry.
Yeah. I mean, if you look at the acceleration, just big picture, if you think where the business comes from, with its footprint mainly in the U.S. and a bit in Europe and then the satellites in Australia and Latin America, I mean, it was basically a mature markets business, right, tracking also growth rates of mature markets. And we brought that because of some of the measures that the previous owner has taken, but then also by adopting the commercial engine, for the lack of a better word, with our emerging markets platform of SIG, we brought an acceleration of growth last year to the 5.6%, a constant currency and constant resin. And our focus is clear. We build capabilities in our emerging markets to go to market with those substrates. And we have cross-selling wins that encourage us that we are on the right track.
We never said it's going to happen overnight. It's a process that is gradual. But we do see interest and traction for the substrate.
Right. My third question. On Asia, and I don't know if it's really sorry, the new Asia, excluding India. I don't know if it's really more China or all of Asia. The chilled carton was clearly growing strongly. That's at least what I understand from your numbers. But given that the region was down, aseptic must have been bad. Can you explain why the two are so different, first of all, so chilled and aseptic, and if there is any cannibalization there?
Yeah. That's a good question. I mean, aseptic was around 1.5%, right, for the year. You recall for Asia, the new definition, and that is mainly driven by China where you recall we had a very bad Q1.
Everyone remembers that was post the opening of COVID restrictions in China when suddenly everyone got sick. Our customers didn't get the plant crewing together. We didn't get the plant crewing together. Then everyone recovered, went into Chinese New Year. It was a lost quarter. Customers did indicate to us that they want to catch up, that they want to hit their volume targets. I think the fact that Asia then closed the year on a 1.5% growth rate, and Asia didn't have the price effects that, for example, Europe had. I mean, we always said that there were differences in the regional price, magnitude of the regional price increases. So I think it was a very decent performance of the aseptic carton in Asia overall. Now, chilled, I think that there is no cannibalization.
But chilled, there is really the element of the power of SIG, the brand for what we stand for, our customer relationships. We have a complete different set of capabilities in the country than the previous owner from technical service to all the support functions on the marketing, on microbiological topics, and all of that. And I think that just has given us a boost there. And the substrate did grow for the full year with, give or take, 6.4%. And I think that was a very, very good performance against the market that we saw rather in a decline. Yet that said, we remain positive on the outlook of chilled. That's a growing category, especially in the eastern coastal area and also in the opportunities that we see beyond China in Southeast Asia. And there, obviously, the footprint is already developed in Korea and Taiwan.
Great. Thank you very much.
Thank you so much.
We have a follow-up question from Jörn Iffert, UBS. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you. Just two quick follow-up questions, please. In your organic sales growth outlook for 2024, is it more or less the same assumption for Scholle and for the aseptic carton business, or are there differences?
We don't guide specifically for the substrate. You don't need a chilled, no bag-in-box, no spout-to-pouch. And these are two different substrates, no aseptic carton. So we have an all-encompassing growth guidance. But there are definitely going to be differences. And I mean, against the backdrop of what we just discussed, that we have measures on the way to bring a substrate with bag-in-box from a mature market to an emerging market, it's going to help us there.
So on a relative basis, not on a total group basis, but on a relative basis versus bag-in-box revenue, we think there are good opportunities to grow. And then the spout-to-pouch, you recall, we brought now for the aseptic line, the second generation, to market. So we're also working on the third one, which is then coming with higher outputs and lower TCO, which we believe is going to unlock a lot of potential in the emerging markets. So there are going to be differences. And I think it's going to be a function of the revenue base. And the smaller the revenue base, spout-to-pouch versus bag-in-box, then also as fast as then the growth rate or higher the growth rate.
Thanks. And then the second quick follow-up. I mean, Scholle was bought because of growth accretion as one of the key arguments.
We are two years now after the acquisition. I mean, when do you expect the breakthrough? When is really the growth accretion happening? Can you give us a timeline? Is it something for 2025? Is it something for 2026 as we have a rough idea about the payback?
Sure. I mean, we bought Scholle because we saw an opportunity to cement our leadership position as a leader for sustainable packaging for liquid food and beverages. We saw an opportunity to not only continue to grow along geographies and categories, but also along channels. We see that opportunity to kind of increase our end-market exposure, which is diversification in the end-markets, which makes us more resilient as a business.
I think we saw that last year without kind of losing it on the operations, but being and staying focused on our core competencies when it comes to operations, when it comes to R&D, when it comes to what we want to have as our core capabilities. We bought it because we saw an opportunity to leverage our investments that we made over the past couple of years in our emerging markets platform, which means operations in the regions, access to the right customers, which means the field service engineers, the co-development centers.
And all of that, we can leverage now for the use of two more substrates, with the bag-in-box substrate, which is a substrate that is very mature, and also spout-to-pouch, which is a substrate which is a bit less mature and where we can help with further R&D activities to bring it to the next level. And as we said, not in the last, but in the previous capital markets day, when it comes to the spout-to-pouch in aseptic, we see an opportunity to set the industry standard. And all of that continues to hold true. We never promised that that's going to happen overnight. That's hard work. That's a lot of execution. And we are well underway. And we said that gradually, that will pick up.
That's why we, when we announced the deal, have amended our midterm guidance with the 4%-6% that we said over time, this acquisition is going to help us to grow in the upper half of this range. That view hasn't changed. You cannot give us a specific timeline when you really expect this to be growth accretive. Is it 2025, 2026, 2027? I mean, from a volume perspective, last year, it was growth accretive, right? I mean, you heard us saying aseptic was broadly flat, and the new substrates were significantly higher from a volume perspective driven. It is, from a volume growth perspective, accretive, and that is going to continue to happen.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, Jörn.
As a reminder to ask a question, please press star and one. There are no more questions at this time.
Thank you very much for your time today. We look forward to hopefully see you on the roadshow, and we wish all of you the best. Thank you very much.