Good morning, and welcome to the Stadler half year results 2026 conference call and live webcast. My name is Sandra, your conference call operator. I would like to remind you that during the presentation, all participants will be in listen-only mode and that the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, you will have the opportunity to ask questions using the keys star and one. Webcast viewers may submit their questions in writing via the relative field. If you need operator assistance, please press asterisk and zero on your conference. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. I will now pass the floor to Marc Meschenmoser, Group CCO. You are on the English channel. This is a short introduction in German, English, and French.
The English translation of the intro will follow after the German introduction, and the rest of the conference will then be translated simultaneously.
Good morning, members of the media, analysts, and investors. Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to warmly welcome you to Stadler's conference call on 2026 half-year results. Thank you for your interest and for joining us. My name is Marc Meschenmoser, Head of Communications and Public Relations at Stadler. Today, Markus Bernsteiner, Group CEO, and Raphael Widmer, Group CFO, will brief you on business performance in the first half year of 2026 and the financial outlook. Afterwards, they will be happy to answer any questions you may have. The conference call is being webcasted in German with live translation into English.
I would now like to pass the floor to CEO, Markus Bernsteiner.
Thank you very much, Marc. Dear media representatives, analysts, and investors, welcome to the presentation of the half year results 2026 of Stadler. It is a great pleasure that after a good year 2025, the first half year, 2026, was also very positive again. With this, we confirm the positive trend and the dynamics of the past year. Again, we managed to significantly increase revenue and EBIT margin. Year-on-year, we were able to increase revenue by 40% and EBIT margin by 1.4 percentage points. Compared with the first half year, 2025, profit has also increased. Our business is a seasonal one.
In the second half year, we always deliver more vehicles than the first half year, so we expect a further improvement of our key figures. We can confirm our outlook for the full year with revenue of significantly over CHF 5 billion and an EBIT margin of over 5%. Regarding our operational focus topics, we are on track. However, we continue to feel the impact of the devastating flooding event in Stadler Valencia. The situation is now stable. The catch-up program continues according to plan. We have reorganized and rebuilt the supply chains. These last few years, we worked the switches for the future. We invested a lot in the innovation of our products and the expansion of our factories and our digital skills and competencies. These investments are now paying off, and this is reflected in our success in the market.
In the growing railway market, Stadler is excellently positioned. With the FLIRT order in Montenegro, there will be trains from Stadler running in 50 countries very soon. We are also the market leader when it comes to battery and hydrogen vehicles. In the first half year, we won orders with a scope of CHF 2.7 billion, which is an increase by CHF 1 billion or 60%. Thus our order backlog increased to CHF 33.3 billion. All orders are currently on schedule in our planning. Stadler continues its positive development. We are going the right direction. Since the IPO in 2019, we were hit hard several times by external events like the COVID pandemic, the Ukraine war, and the three environmental disasters. The effects culminated in 2024, but we counteracted with a package of extensive measures.
The business development shows that we made the right strategic and operational decisions. The measures are showing their effect, and we will continue to improve our results. This brings me to the current situation in Germany. The economic context remains difficult and weighs on the group result, and significantly so. The efficiency increase program launched in 2025 is showing its effects. The milestones have been reached and we will continue to implement measures in a targeted way. What is very positive is the development regarding order intake. Shortly after the closing of the first half year, we were awarded two major orders, which are not yet included in the first half year results. In July, we were awarded the order for the Berlin commuter trains, 350 four-part commuter trains, as well as operation and maintenance for 30 years, which will be delivered in a consortium with Siemens and Deutsche Bahn.
The overall volume for the consortium is EUR 15 billion. Furthermore, for the Berlin transport services, we are building 166 additional cars for the wide gauge metro network in Berlin. These two orders will be produced in Berlin Pankow trains from Berlin for Berlin, and these orders secure the long-term capacity utilization of our plant in Berlin. This brings me to our three reporting segments. Rolling Stock continues to be our biggest segment in this area. We were awarded orders in the amount of CHF 2.2 billion. Order intake was thus 57% above last year's levels. In the first half year, the order backlog has again increased to CHF 23 billion and the revenue also increased significantly by 48% to CHF 1.6 billion. In our Signaling segment, the order backlog also increased to almost CHF 600 million. Revenue in the first half year reached CHF 27 million.
The development in our Services and Components segment is also very positive, where we reached an order intake of CHF 515 million, which means last year's order, first half year of last year was doubled. The order backlog in the Services business increased to CHF 9.7 billion. Revenue was increased by 10%. The key figures in the three segments thus reflect the sustainable development of Stadler in the first half year, 2026. I would now like to mention a few highlights amongst our orders. For instance, the Copenhagen commuter train together with Siemens, we are delivering 226 fully automated trains including maintenance. The order volume is about CHF 3 billion. Also regarding trams, we were successful. Amongst others, we are delivering 14 TINA trams for Görlitz and Zwickau in Germany. We have been the market leader since 2025 in trams in Europe.
In the Signaling segment, I would like to mention two orders in Switzerland for TPC. We are modernizing a section with our EUROLOCKING technology. For BLS, we will, for the first time, automate a depot for regional trains in commercial operation in Spiez. Very often, tenders combine Rolling Stock and Service contracts, for instance, in Ireland. Apart from Rolling Stock, we delivered to Ireland a Services contract for 15 years. With this, Stadler assures the high availability and reliability of the fleet. The same holds true for Via Rail in Canada. Apart from the delivery of 45 locomotives, we were also able to win the contract for technical support and replacement parts supply for the next 20 years. For this, we will found a subsidiary in Canada.
The positive development of the order intake in the first half year and the already mentioned major orders in Berlin underline Stadler's strong market position. We have the widest and most innovative product portfolio in the industry, and we are very well positioned in order to further grow in a sustainable and highly qualitative way. With this, I would like to pass the floor to our CFO, Raphael Widmer, who will give you detailed insights into the financials.
Thank you very much, Markus. Ladies and gentlemen, I would also like to welcome you to today's conference call. I will now lead you through the financial part of the presentation. Let me start with an overview. The order intake in the first half year amounted to CHF 2.7 billion and was thus CHF 1 billion higher than last year.
The major orders in Germany for the Berlin commuter train and metro are not included in that yet. For the second half year, we expect additional major orders, and we do assume that our communicated strategic target for 2026 will be reached. The order backlog amounts to CHF 33.3 billion, and increased by CHF 1 billion compared to end of year 2025. Revenue increased to almost CHF 2 billion, which is a record for the first six months, and the increase compared with the first half year 2025 was 40%. EBIT increased to CHF 79 million. The EBIT margin is 4% and thus 1.4 percentage points higher than in the previous year in the first half year. Net cash reduced by CHF 149 million to CHF -424 million.
At the same time, the net working capital was increased by CHF 98 million to CHF 324 million, which had to do with increased production output. CapEx was at CHF 101 million, and thus slightly lower than the previous year. The free cash flow was at CHF -54 million, which is a significant improvement. This also includes, additionally to the CapEx, the dividend payment of CHF 50 million. For the second half year, we expect a balanced out or slightly positive free cash flow. Let me come to the order intake now. The order intake amounted to CHF 2.738 billion in the first half year and was thus significantly higher than last year. The timing of incoming orders is difficult to plan, and for the second half year, we expect additional major orders.
Here, the Berlin and metro already played a major role. We will reach our strategic target for the full year. The order intake for Rolling Stock was CHF 2.2 billion, for Services, CHF 515 million, and in Signaling, this amounted to CHF 30 million. But in the Signaling segment, we only report external orders, no internal orders. Geographically, the order intake is solid in all markets. Let me now come to the order backlog. The order backlog at the end of June amounted to CHF 33.3 billion, including a high services and components share of over 29%, which gives us a good revenue visibility and stability for the future. Let me now come to revenue. Revenue for the half year 2026 increased significantly by almost CHF 600 million to almost CHF 2 billion.
This is more than 40% in increase, including negative FX effects of 2.2%. The revenue in Rolling Stock increased by 47.9%. The negative FX effect was -2.3%, and revenue in services and components increased by 9.9%, despite a negative FX effect of 1.6%. In the Signaling business, we saw growth of 25.3% with a negative FX effect of - 2.4%. The production output is the revenue plus the change in gross work in progress. The production output in the first half year 2025 exceeded revenue by CHF 612 million, and thus reached CHF 2.577 billion, which corresponds to an increase of over 10.5% compared with last year's levels. We have a massively higher output than revenue, which is owing to our conservative revenue recognition practice.
Stadler mainly uses the unit of delivery approach, meaning that vehicles will only get recognized as revenue once they have been accepted by the customer. Meaning that between the time when the contract is signed and the time when we recognize the revenue, 2- 10 years can pass. Revenue and margin are significantly lagging behind the operational performance. This method is conservative and leads to a later revenue recognition compared to our competitors. The conservative method of units of delivery in combination with the up to 10-year execution cycles lead to the following picture. Since 2021, we've seen annual increases in order intake of between CHF 5.6 billion and CHF 8.6 billion. They are always significantly higher than the revenue in the same year. The production output defined as annual revenue plus the change in gross work in progress, that's the green bar. This production output starts increasing significantly earlier.
The vehicles are built and are then delivered to the vehicle after completion. 2025 was a year with a major increase in production output and with low revenues according to the unit of delivery method. If you use the cost-to-cost method, revenue for 2025 would have been at CHF 5.5 billion. The same holds true for the first half year 2026. With the cost-to-cost method, revenue would be at CHF 2.6 billion. Because of this starting situation, we expect major increases in revenue for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028. In 2026, we expect revenue to increase to significantly over CHF 5 billion, and the planned production output in 2026 is a precondition for reaching our revenue targets in 2027. For the planned revenue in 2026 and 2027, we already have over 95% of orders in our books. For 2028, already 90% are in our books.
Coming to the EBIT now. EBIT amounted to CHF 79.5 million, and the EBIT margin does increase significantly by 1.4 percentage points from 2.6% to 4%. The EBIT margin for the first six months is never very representative because of our conservative revenue recognition and the mix of recognized revenues. As we usually deliver significantly more vehicles in the second half year, we also have significantly higher revenues in the second semester. Now a short comment on net income. The group result amounts to CHF 31.2 million. The tax impact is significantly higher. The FX effect in the financial result in the first half year 2025 were very positive, which was not the case in the first half year 2026, but these effects are not of operational nature. Let me now come to the cash positions, and I will start with the net cash position.
The decrease of the net cash position was mainly owing to the fact that in the previous years, high down payments for orders won were recognized, which are now being used up for order execution. We invest the down payments in the production of vehicles, which technically speaking, has a negative impact on our net cash position. Here I'd like to refer to my comments regarding production output. In addition to that, in the first half year, we also paid out the dividend, and this together with our investments amounting to CHF 101 million, led to a reduction of our net cash position. The mirrored image of the net cash position and one of the major drivers is the net working capital. The net working capital has slightly increased, but it remains negative.
A negative net working capital is positive because it means that our orders overall can be covered by down payments from customers and are not financed by banks. In the second half year, I assume the net working capital to go further down. Let me go into further detail here. In the years 2016 and 2017, Stadler won orders with high down payments and in combination with milestone payments from ongoing orders, this led to a highly negative net working capital. In the years 2018 to 2020, the down payments were used up for order execution. On top of that, there was the COVID pandemic. We couldn't get market authorization and vehicle acceptance, so no final payments were made by customers, and the result was a significantly positive net working capital.
The situation started turning around again as from 2021, the negative COVID effects were caught up, and we received good down payments from new projects and milestone payments from ongoing orders. The net working capital became strongly negative again. In the long run, we expect a slightly negative net working capital with fluctuations over the different cycles, but these cycles are very long, so one year is not very representative. Such cash cycles are normal in our business, and Stadler Rail's cash situation has been very solid over the years. Now, a few words on investments. Investments are mainly made in capacity building in Austria, Hungary, the U.S. and Spain. The high order intake leads to additional investments in our factories so that CapEx in 2026 will remain at a high level, namely CHF 250 million.
Investments in intangible assets mainly come from development activities for locomotives, alternative propulsion systems and signaling. With this, I would like to pass the floor back to our CEO, Markus Bernsteiner.
Thank you very much, Raphael. I would now like to give you some insights into our operational action fields and our current focus topics. In the long run, we are optimizing our operational business in four core dimensions. Firstly, the team is the basis for our success. We invest in training and further training of our employees, and we promote our talents. This way, we make sure that also in the future, we have the best professionals and the right expertise. Secondly, we drive ahead with the technological further development of our vehicles, our signaling technology, and our services.
Furthermore, we invest in digitalization and use new technologies in order to become more efficient and to improve our products and offering. At the same time, in our organization, we are pressing ahead with digital transformation. All these are preconditions to be successful in the market in the long run and to win orders. Thirdly, we bank on the selective participation in tenders and focus on projects with attractive framework conditions. At the same time, we are profitably expanding our segment services and Signaling and do so in a targeted way. This way, we increase profitability and secure sustainable growth. Fourthly, we strengthen our operational performance through the harmonization of our processes and the digitalization and automation of our plants. We furthermore bank on consistent and precise cost and progress control. We thus increase efficiency, quality, and deliveries on time and form the basis for successful order execution.
Our long-term vision is clear. Our four operational action fields form the framework and are supported by specific, concrete initiatives and programs. I would like to mention two of them here, digitalization and the expansion of our Services business. The newly founded Stadler Digital Labs is an important organizational unit for our digital transformation. The joint venture became operational in January 2026. It now already has over 130 employees, and in the years to come, we expect to employ over 300 specialists there. With this, we further increase our digital expertise, particularly when it comes to software and systems engineering, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence. Furthermore, we strengthen our ability to develop scalable digital solutions. As a result, we can more quickly market innovations, and we assure our long-term competitiveness. Another measure is the expansion of our Services business, which I will talk about now.
The share of Service orders in our overall order backlog continues to increase and is now at around 30%, which corresponds to almost CHF 10 billion. This development is the result of targeted measures in order to further and continuously expand the strategically important Services business. Since 2019, we have more than doubled the number of our Services sites. Now we have over 95 sites in 25 countries. This brings us closer to our customers and strengthens our position in tenders. In addition to that, structural growth drivers offer us long-term attractive perspectives in the Services business. Our growing vehicle fleets forms a basis for additional services potential because more vehicles require more maintenance. Furthermore, the modernization needs increase when it comes to existing fleets. We are therefore strengthening our expertise in this area.
For instance, for Topos articulated trains, we are offering refits and thus give these vehicles a second life. Another growth driver is increasing digitization in the railway sector, which opens up new possibilities for data-based preventive maintenance. This shows that when it comes to Services, there's still a lot of potential, so we continue to invest in growth, quality, and proximity here. This brings me to the focus topics for the year 2026. For this year, we have three clear operational focus points. Firstly, Stadler Germany, second, digitalization, and thirdly, the harmonization of our processes and systems. I've already mentioned the development in Germany. We are satisfied with the progress made so far when it comes to digitalization. Here, I've already talked about the foundation of Stadler Digital Labs, an important milestone. We will now build on that.
We will further develop our expertise in this future-proof area. The harmonization of processes and systems is of major importance within Stadler. We are harmonizing our group-wide key processes. For this, we require a uniform system and application landscape, and for this reason, we are introducing group-wide a modern PLM and ERP system for planning and controlling key business processes. The rollout in the Swiss division is going according to plan, and the implementation in our St. Margrethen plant was a success. Now, the next site will follow here in Bussnang. Let me summarize. We are operationally on track, and we continue to improve our results as we have already started doing these past few years. This brings me to the financial outlook.
Stadler confirms the short and mid-term guidance in the financial year 2026, and in the coming years, we will reach revenue of significantly over CHF 5 billion. Thanks to the strong order backlog, the increased production output, and the efficiency program launched in Germany, we expect an EBIT margin of over 5% for 2026. If framework conditions remain stable, we furthermore expect to increase the EBIT margin in the medium term to 6%-8%. The order intake will be around 1x- 1.5x the annual revenue, which forms the basis for sustainable capacity utilization and profitable growth. For 2026, we furthermore expect investments of about CHF 250 million. In the mid-term, we expect investments of around CHF 200 million. With this, I'm closing my explanations on our guidance.
But I would like to draw your attention now to InnoTrans, the biggest railway exhibition of the world, which will be held in Berlin as from 22nd of September , and I would be very pleased to welcome you there on-site. As you could read in the industry journals these past few weeks, we will be presenting seven vehicles at InnoTrans. Apart from the world's first narrow gauge hydrogen train in Italy, this includes the highly efficient EURO DuFour locomotive for SBB Cargo. We will also show a long-distance train that we have specially developed for the Nordic climate in Norway. The exhibited vehicles showcase three strengths of Stadler: our high innovation potential, our consistent orientation towards our customers' needs, and the width of our product portfolio.
These strengths make it possible for us to set new standards over and over again and to continuously and sustainably strengthen our position in the global market. This brings me to the end of my presentation. As you can see, we are based on strong foundations. We have attractive market opportunities, and we have a clear plan for profitable and sustainable development of our company. The positive business development in the first half year 2026 confirms that we have made the right strategic decisions. The most important factor for success is our team, the employees of Stadler. With their extensive skills, commitment, and passion, they deliver extraordinary performance every day and make Stadler what it is: a company that stands for reliability, efficiency, innovation, and high-level quality. Together, we will further strengthen our market position, and we continue to write Stadler's successful history with a lot of passion.
On behalf of the Board of Directors and the entire group management, I would like to thank all employees with all my heart. I would furthermore like to thank our customers, business partners, and suppliers for the good cooperation. Special thanks go to our investors. The entire Stadler team appreciates your loyalty. Your trust makes it possible that we courageously invest in the future. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much, Markus. This was the presentation by Markus Bernsteiner and Raphael Widmer. The two of them will now answer your questions.
Let us start with the Q and A session. If you would like to ask a question, please press asterisk and one on your telephone. Who would like to have the floor for the first question in German? The first question comes from Johannes Brinkmann, AWP.
Good morning, gentlemen. I have got a few questions.
In the first half year 2026, what was the cost of the results of the flooding, and how much was it in the first half year 2025? That is my first question. Can you maybe also ask the other two questions right away? Okay. So the consequences of the flooding in 2027, what impact will that have? Then another question, what impact did Berlin have on the operational result?
Thank you very much. That is a question for CFO Raphael Widmer.
Thank you for the question. Well, as I have said, we can assume that the cost of the consequences of the flooding will continue to have an impact on 2027, but the impact will be significantly lower. Compared with 2025, the cost was halved in the first half year 2026.
So we do not report that separately, but it was about 1.5%-2% of the cost, and I do assume that in 2026 it will be at around 1% compared to, or in relation to revenue at our Spanish plant. So much on the first question. Well, Berlin, we are also not reporting that separately, but a good thing is that we can now consistently see an increase in efficiency. We are significantly improving the situation, but also there, we can say the situation has a major impact on the group margin, but I cannot give you detailed figures.
Okay, then let me ask a follow-up question. The Berlin plant with the commuter train and the metro orders, will they now break even?
Definitely. Thanks to the orders from BVG, so the metro order and the order for the commuter train.
Thanks to that, we will have very strong positive effects in the future, and the plant will then be working more efficiently in the future. It's only a matter of time until we break even there, and I do assume that this will be the case next year.
Mr. Brinkmann, so we have now received the order for the 350 Neue S-Bahn Berlin orders. We waited for this order for five years. We also had prepared capacity that we had reserved for them, and now we have finally been awarded this contract, so we are very happy about these two orders, which are not yet included in the first half year figures. So they will be reflected in the full year results for 2025.
Thank you, Mr. Brinkmann, for the questions. The next question comes from Michael Suerth from [Deutsche].
Good morning, gentlemen.
Congratulations on the good progress made. Two questions from my side. Firstly, can you tell us more about the overall order volume in Berlin that Stadler benefits from? You mentioned the number of EUR 15 billion for the consortium, so how much will Stadler benefit from that and how much was recognized in the first half year? That was the first question. The second question is, you mentioned a significant increase of revenues in 2027 compared with 2026. So can we expect double-digit growth in 2027 compared to 2026 revenues?
I can answer the first question. Neue S-Bahn Berlin, the commuter train order for these 350 trains. So we cannot provide information about the consortium split here, but what we can say is that all the rolling stock will be produced at our Pankow plant. It's a consortium between Stadler, Deutsche Bahn and Siemens.
I would now like to answer your question regarding revenue 2027 versus 2026. We can assume that we will have a growth rate or a high single-digit growth rate. It always depends on how you recognize revenue with the units of delivery method, but I assume that we will achieve a high single-digit rate.
Okay, maybe a short follow-up question. You said the tax rate increased significantly. What do we need to expect for 2026 and 2027, and what was the reason for this increase?
The tax rate increased significantly as we continue to write losses in certain subsidiaries because of the tense economic situation, and therefore, we cannot form deferred tax. So that is not an outflow of cash, it is only an accounting issue. As long as the subsidiaries are fairing more positively, again, the tax load will automatically be reduced.
Then we will reach this OECD value of around 15% probably.
Further questions?
Next question comes from Patrick Rafaisz from UBS.
Thank you very much and good morning. Also from my side, congratulations on the good first half year figures. Major progress made here. Great. Three questions. The first question is on the project pipeline in the second half year and maybe even in 2027. There were these two orders for Berlin. Raphael, you said that additional major projects might come in in the second half year. Can you give us some more details on the kinds of projects planned and what will be the pipeline for 2027? Second question is about the medium-term targets, particularly the margin 6%-8%.
We have heard that Berlin is well on track regarding profitability for next year and that the consequences of the flooding in Valencia are of less and less relevance. Will that be sufficient to improve significantly already in 2027, or are there other factors that might prevent that? The third question is about your Services network. Here you said you had doubled the number of sites, compared to 2019. Do you have further expansion plans and are there geographical gaps that still need to be closed?
Thank you very much. I will start with the project pipeline. When I mentioned these major orders, I primarily thought about the two major Berlin orders, but there are also major Services volumes that might come on top. This is all not signed yet.
We do not only get major orders, we also get very multifaceted orders in the three-digit millions Swiss franc range. This is what I can say. The pipeline looks positive also for the years to come, which is thanks to the market situation. Regarding our medium-term target, 6%-8%. Your question was whether the worst will be over in 2027. I will be able to say more about that at the media conference in March next year, but I think that it is very likely that we will reach the lower range of the 6%-8% guidance range already. Regarding the expansion of our network, while we do not have geographic targets, services follow our order intake wherever we have new orders, and customers expect us to service their vehicles. That is the driver for the Services side.
We do not have a strategy to cover the whole world because primarily we only service our own fleets and not third-party fleets.
Well, the target strategy is that what we reported regarding growth in services, that we continue the success story.
Further questions?
The next question comes from Dominik Feldges from NZZ.
Good morning. I have got a question. You mentioned investments, and you list them on one slide. Since 2019, you always listed investments minus subsidies. Can you say something about the subsidies that you received versus the investments that you financed yourself? So what kind of subsidies are these?
The subsidies are relatively low. These are relatively low amounts.
If you look at the entire investment amount, it is almost negligible. I can tell you that we received subsidies when we invested in the U.S., and there was also one case in Hungary. These are the subsidies we received, but it is not the case that the majority of our investments would be financed by third parties. This would be too nice.
You do not benefit from industry politics?
No. You can assume that the subsidies amount to CHF 4 million-CHF 5 million per year.
Okay. May I ask a follow-up question? Alstom is the global market leader, and they will get a new CEO, and they have said already that they would become more selective when it comes to tenders. You also mentioned that it was one of your targets to be more selective. Is it true that there continues to be a lot of pressure?
Is there a lot of price pressure in the tenders, or is there price pressure everywhere so that you need to be cautious about the orders that you accept?
This is a question to Markus Bernsteiner.
Thank you very much for this question. It is selective participation in tenders. This is something that we have been doing for three years now. We are reviewing the tendering conditions, and if you are selective, this does not only hold true for the price. This is only one indicator because the vehicles will be running for 35 years. There are also other parameters like unlimited liability or that they even want us to clean graffiti sprayed on vehicles. Tenders sometimes include such conditions, and here, of course, at some point, we need to say, no, the risk profile is too high here. Thank you very much.
Dominik Feldges from NZZ and Raphael Widmer would like to add something regarding subsidies for investment.
We are reporting them in our cash flow statement in the half year report on page 14.
Thank you very much. Further questions?
The next question comes from Tobias Klöpper from the Zürcher Kantonalbank.
Good morning, everybody. I have got a question regarding the free cash flow. If I understand correctly, a balanced out or slightly positive free cash was expected for the full year, which sounds much better than at the beginning of the year. What are the most important drivers here for the second half year?
Thank you very much for the question. The driver here is two things, or there are two drivers for that. On the one hand, the operational business.
We are making good operational progress, and as a result, we can very quickly get in milestone payments. That is really positive news from our operational business. Furthermore, from the order intake that is planned, we expect higher down payments than was the case at the beginning of the year. These are the two main drivers for my more optimistic outlook here. I also need to mention that the down payments can be very high or not. If another order comes in before the end of the year, this can turn around the entire cash flow situation. That is a disclaimer that I always need to make. The outlook is positive.
One last question in German, before we come to the English questions. We have got an additional question from Johannes Brinkmann.
I also wanted to know whether this rule, 1/3 of the revenue in the first half year, 2/3 in the second half year, will also be true for this year. If so, then you'd have to book revenue of about CHF 6 billion this year.
That is right. That's a rule, but it's not set in stone. Our first half year was very strong. The second half year will also be strong again, but it won't be another CHF 4 billion in the second half year. So we confirm over CHF 5 billion for the full year.
As there's so much demand for questions from the German telephone channel. Yes, we've got an additional question from UBS, Patrick Rafaisz. Mr. Rafaisz, your line is open. You can ask your question.
Thank you very much. Just two details regarding what Raphael said. The first point regarding the financial result.
For the second half year, will we see a similar amount? Then, Raphael, you said for the second half year, you expect the networking capital to go down. What does that mean? Will it be less negative or more negative?
It will be more negative because we expect a better cash flow. The financial result for the second half year will be at the same level of percentage, I think. This is more of an accounting topic and not a cash topic.
Further questions from someone who hasn't asked questions yet on the telephone?
Then we will go to the questions from the English channel .
Please your question. Yeah.
Questions. First, can you provide a bit more color on your efficiency program launched in Berlin? You said that milestones have been achieved. What kind of milestones are you referring to? Did I understand correctly that you will reach the break even next year? Second question, regarding the two big contracts signed in Germany, were they associated with down payments or not? Thank you.
So, two questions which are about Berlin. What milestones have been reached in the scope of the efficiency program for the Berlin plant, and whether Stadler expects to break even in 2027.
Well, the efficiency increase program was launched in 2025, and it includes a whole list of operational activities. The milestone targets have been reached, meaning everything that has to do with organization, processes, efficiency in production has been on or is going well, I am happy about that. So we are well on track. The employees are also contributing, and we signed a collective bargaining agreement for the future with the trade union IG Metall, so the employees also contribute. Instead of 38 hours, they now work 40 hours a week. We have also reached a good milestone there. Also regarding organization, we have repositioned several executives, and we expect the break even.
Well, our target is that next year we break even regarding EBIT margins.
The second question has to do with the Berlin orders, metro and commuter trains. Did you receive down payments here?
Well, there are down payments, but they will not all fall into the year 2026. But I cannot give you details on that.
Okay. Other questions from other participants in English, please, on the telephone.
We have a question from Akash Gupta from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good morning. I have two questions as well. My first one is on U.S. We saw a number of U.S. companies benefiting from tariff refunds in Q2. I am wondering if you can talk about any benefit you may have had in H1 or you could see benefit in H2. That is the first one. My second question is on your order intake guidance. You basically mentioned that Berlin contract would be EUR 15 billion for consortium. Let us say if you assume a third, then it could be EUR 5 billion for you, and in that case, why you have not upgraded your book order intake guidance. Thank you.
So two questions. The first question by JP Morgan has to do with Stadler US. The question is to what extent are we affected regarding the repayment of the tariffs?
Already in the first half year, we received back payments in the middle single digit million range, and this works very well. We will continue to claim them, and we do assume we can claim back everything that we had to pay already. Also here it can be said that with all our contracts in the U.S., we have a change of law clause, meaning that if certain expenses like tariffs need to be paid by Stadler, we have the possibility to invoice that on to the client.
We have got a plant in Salt Lake City, and this plant was built before Donald Trump's term of office.
We have further expanded it. Now we have value creation in Salt Lake City of almost 80%. So value creation of almost 80% and two-thirds of the tariffs that we had to pay have already been claimed back and received back.
The second question was regarding order intake from the major orders in Berlin, what expectations we have there regarding the order intake, and whether we will adjust the guidance.
We are not able to give you the exact amount for Berlin yet, and if that has a major impact on our guidance, we will communicate that accordingly.
Further questions from the English channel?
Next question comes from Vivek Midha from Citi. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, everyone, and good morning. My first question is around your comments on the ERP systems. Are you carrying any costs around the rollout of this new ERP system in 2026, and can you quantify this? My second question is around your comments on the 2027 margin. You commented that the margin is likely to enter the lower part of the guidance, perhaps already next year. What could be the levers for you to go towards the midpoint for your mid-term guidance beyond that level? I am thinking of color around that. Finally, I have a question around the Signaling story. You received a large order in the U.S. in the second half of 2024. Since then, we have not really seen anything of that magnitude. So what does the pipeline in Signaling look like now? Thank you.
Maybe if I may ask you to repeat the second question. We did not quite hear it properly.
Of course. My second question is looking to understand the levers beyond your comment earlier that you could be in the lower part of the 6%-8% margin guidance, what could be the levers to go beyond that level towards the midpoint of that guidance?
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Three questions. The first question was regarding the rollout and implementation of our ERP system. What expenses does that lead to at the group level? Raphael Widmer.
That is a group level project that has been running for several years, and these are substantial expenses, of course, but they are all going according to plan, and we have made major progress with this project, and at the end of the year, over 60% of our revenue will be on the new system landscape, and this all worked very smoothly. The expenses are difficult to sum up as they get distributed over the years, and they are incurred at the different sites, but we can assume annual costs or an impact on the P&L of CHF 10 million- CHF 20 million.
The second question affected the margin of the first half year 2027, where you said it would be at the lower range of the guidance of 6%-8%. What would have to happen for it to be a bit higher?
The well-known levers is operational excellence in execution, in Rolling Stock production, then the growing Signaling and Services business. In addition to that, we also already discussed that Germany might break even next year, but the levers remain the same. The only question is how quickly this happens, and this will have an impact on whether margins will come in earlier or not.
The third question had to do with the Signaling business in the U.S. Stadler Signaling won a major order in 2024 with MARTA.
What is in the pipeline in the Signaling business for the future?
Are there any additional major orders?
In 2016, the Signaling division was founded in Wallisellen, Switzerland. We now have up to 800 employees in this division with the clear target of developing our own ETCS equipment, including ATO autonomous driving systems, and to build them into our trains. You can assume that all our trains will, wherever possible, run with our own ETCS systems. We do not report internal revenue. We only report external revenue. You referred to MARTA in the U.S. I can tell you this is not visible from the figures it is included.
I would like to add something.
We had an order in 2024, the one that you referred to, that was MARTA in a range of half a billion, and there are further opportunities of the same order of magnitude in the market when it comes to CBTC, and these opportunities will come in the next few years.
I hear we have no further questions in the English channel, but one more telephone question. Dominik Feldges from NZZ.
Thank you very much. One more question about market growth. You said that you were active in a growing market, and could you maybe say something about the market development, the rolling stock market? Are you outperforming the market regarding growth? I would like to know what your growth is.
I would like to answer this question.
The global rolling stock market has grown by 4%-6%, and we presented our results today. You can do the math and calculate how we are fairing growth wise.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. Now let's come to the written questions. Walther Rosenberger from Südkurier wants us to explain why our group result has remained constant and has not grown as the other key figures have.
Thank you for the question. There are two reasons to that. On the one hand, in the first half year 2025, we had a financial result of almost EUR 20 million because of a revaluation of balance sheet assets, and that was more or less an exception. This year we have a more normal year.
In our financial results, we also have higher costs for bank guarantees, which doesn't mean that we are paying more per order, but as our volumes have increased, absolute costs have increased. The second point was the tax impact that indeed, we cannot recognize deferred tax because of the loss-making subsidiaries, and as soon as the subsidiaries are breaking even, the accounting cost will decrease.
Another question by the Südkurier. Can you explain how the economic weakness in Germany impacts your business?
I can quickly comment on that. We were waiting five years for the order for the 350 vehicles for Berlin. For five years, we reserved the capacity for the production, which cost money. This situation of limbo hit us very hard. We won a contract, Alstom appealed, and then it took time. That is just one example.
Another point is Deutsche Bahn. If we won orders from Deutsche Bahn, we need to play bank for them. We will only be paid at the end. Because of our conservative revenue recognition method, we are building vehicle with our own funds, and we only get paid at the handover of the vehicles. These are two examples from this. This shows that you could do things differently and could thus help companies.
Another question to the CEO, will you increase the number of jobs at group level this year, and to what extent?
Sorry, my turn. Yes, of course, as we are growing. We have budgeted 18,900 employees. We will, of course, increase the number of professionals, and we find them. That is one point. That's the big picture. However, two further remarks.
The first one regarding the newly founded Stadler Digital Labs. We have already been able to hire 130 employees for the Digital Labs. Our target is to have up to 300 employees. What I am always very pleased about is that our apprentices system works so well. It is good to see that we can train our own future professionals, can use them for our own rolling stock production. Here our target is that of the 300 apprentices that we currently have, we can go to 315 in the future.
On the 1st of January 2026, Stadler had about 17,100 employees. We have budgeted a plus of around 1,800. Then the written questions in English.
How are orders for freight locomotives evolving in Stadler Valencia in 2026? What is the current order number for freight locomotives at Stadler Valencia? Is it possible to know the revenue or EBIT development of Stadler Valencia in 2026? Question from Oscar Matoy.
I will quickly translate the question into German. The question was, how about the orders for freight locomotives at Stadler Valencia? Is it possible to indicate the EBIT of Stadler Valencia?
The orders in the locomotives business are showing a nice development, and you find more about that in our half yearly report. You can nicely see how revenue in this business increases. However, we do not report detailed figures for Valencia.
Thank you very much. No further questions have been received. At the end of this half year results press conference, I would like to inform you that as of the end of June, Stadler had sold 13,100 vehicles worldwide. I would like to make one additional remark regarding Switzerland.
Within one year, Stadler created 276 new jobs in Switzerland since the end of the first half year, 2025. Thank you very much for your interest in Stadler. We are available for further questions. Journalists can contact us by email. Investors and analysts, they can contact us via investorrelations@stadlerrail.com. I would like to wish you a nice day and thank you for your interest.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have thus ended this telephone conference. Thank you very much for your participation. Thank you very much