AS Tallink Grupp (TAL:TAL1T)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

Apr 27, 2022

Harri Hanschmidt
Member of the Management Board, AS Tallink Grupp

Thank you very much, Joonas. Thank you for tuning in. My name is Harri Hanschmidt. I'm a Member of the Management Board for AS Tallink Grupp. We will go over the first quarter results of 2022. AS Tallink Grupp is the leading European provider of leisure and business travel and sea transportation services in the Baltic Sea region. We own and operate a fleet of 14 vessels and typically operate also seven ferry routes. Currently, one is suspended, and we will not open it this year. We are talking about the Tallinn-Riga-Stockholm route. We also operate four hotels and the Riga hotel this year is closed. The key facts. Our revenues in 2021 were EUR 477 million.

We keep a reference to the pre-pandemic 2019 year. At that time, the pre-pandemic revenues were about EUR 950 million. This reference is getting maybe a little bit less relevant to the times as the business is changing. We have different number of ships, routes, and trips. I think it's important still because compared to our regular normal year, despite the different environmental factors, we also have different restrictions, and some of these were in effect in the first quarter as well. We will talk more about that. We last year served 3 million passengers. Pre-pandemic that it was about 10 million passengers.

We transported about 370,000 cargo units and have a EUR 1.6 billion asset base. This is mainly the vessels. The group at the end of the first quarter had about 4,700 employees. Our Club One loyalty program has nearly 3 million loyal members. We are publicly traded on the Tallinn and Helsinki Nasdaq stock exchanges and have nearly 40,000 shareholders through the Tallinn Stock Exchange and FDR to our listing program in Helsinki. We operate two strong brands, the Tallink brand and the Silja brand. On the next page, we can see the first quarter key facts and developments. Basically, we can look at the first quarter that is our low season. It had two major external factors.

We saw new travel restrictions and wariness to travel because of the spread of the COVID-19 Omicron variant. That was affecting the first half of our first quarter. The second half was affected by the very unfortunate war in Ukraine that turned into a geopolitical crisis and has a multitude of effects to the region and our business as well. The first effect that can be felt is a higher fuel price among other input prices. Also we historically have transported passengers from Ukraine, Belarus and Russia, especially groups. These special passengers will not be most likely traveling right now, at least did not travel in the first quarter.

Fortunately, all of the COVID-19 restrictions have been lifted in the second half of the first quarter. We can see a positive trend of bookings coming in and people starting to travel much more. We had a temporary scale back of operations, and this affected especially the cruise ferry Silja Europa, Silja Serenade, and Baltic Queen, and that was also regarding to a slower first quarter with higher fuel price and passengers not yet traveling. We did everything we could to optimize the cost and earnings ratio.

We have been seeking long-term charters or charters for vessels with the goal in mind that all our assets would be working for us at all times. We're happy that Romantika went on a long-term charter between Norway and Netherlands, and is already operating there. Most of our dockings are done in the first quarter as it is our low season every year, but this year it was definitely more challenging, and we were able to plan the dockings for eight vessels into the first quarter, this means we are in a very good shape for this year's high season. We opened one new Burger King restaurant in Riga, Latvia.

There was a compromise reached in the dispute between the Port of Tallinn and Tallink Group regarding port fees, and we feel it's a positive outcome for both parties. Mm-hmm. Also regarding the geopolitical crisis, one of our vessels, Isabelle is on a charter contract offering war refugees housing in it for up to 2,100 people. During the first quarter, we have offered humanitarian transportation together with different Finnish humanitarian organizations for refugees and for refugee-related cargo, free of charge. So far, from Estonia to Finland, over 8,600 people. Mm-hmm.

Events after the reporting period and outlook, I already a little bit jumped ahead and told you about the short-term charter of the cruise ferry Isabelle as a refugee center. This charter is done together with the Estonian Social Insurance Board. The duration is minimum of four months and a maximum of eight months. Therefore, Isabelle is not available for the Riga-Stockholm route, and Romantika is also chartered out, and this is one of the reasons we are not opening the Riga-Stockholm route this year. The cargo vessel Sea Wind, our oldest vessel, nearly 50 years old, 49 years old, was sold for a little bit more than the book value of the vessel.

There is a positive deal and there is not a significant profit regarding that vessel. The cargo routes have been made a little bit different schedule and have a higher frequency right now. The new dual fuel LNG marine gas oil shuttle vessel, MyStar, is being built in Rauma, but unfortunately, there is a delay with the vessel, and currently we have received information from the factory that we can expect the vessel in the third quarter of 2022. The vessel will go to the Tallinn-Helsinki route that is our most important route. Until that time, we have sufficient capacity available on this route.

Despite the uncertainties in the outlook of the economic environment, the management does expect a quicker recovery in the passenger traffics from the second quarter of 2022. A little bit about the Burger King operations. We opened the first restaurant in May 2020. Since then, we have built 15 restaurants. Six of them are in Estonia, four in Latvia, five restaurants in Lithuania. In the beginning, we opened about eight restaurants per year. Right now, because of the turbulent environment, we have scaled this tempo a little bit down. We are opening about four restaurants, but now most of the restaurants that we open are drive-in restaurants and take a little bit longer to build as well. We can see that the initial plan was to build about 40 restaurants.

We will reach the half mark, maybe next year, having built 20 restaurants. We do a thorough evaluation of how the business is and hopefully can give more information. Why it's hard to give very exact information is because the whole Burger King chain opened just in the start of the pandemic. Although we have 15 restaurants, we can see that on an average, we only operate at 10 restaurants because of the different restrictions of shopping centers being closed of different reasons, or old cities being empty. This right now looks like it's turning around nicely.

We employed 223 employees across the Baltic countries. To summarize everything, there was still again the impact of COVID-19 on the first quarter results, but we did manage to double the revenue. Cargo units were up about 20%. We had 720,000 passengers. Compared to the last year, the numbers are positive and then we see a positive trend. On a negative side, we saw a new crisis and significant cost of fuel and input prices. The fuel cost increased by 153%, or EUR 17.2 million. Unfortunately, our net result was slightly weaker than last year with -EUR 40 million.

There was capital expenditure, and this is mostly regarding the ships maintenance and working restaurant. I will give now word to Joonas Joost, who will continue with the presentation. Thank you very much.

Joonas Joost
Financial Director and Head of Investor Relations, AS Tallink Grupp

Thank you, Harri. Looking bit more detailed into the sales development now. As discussed earlier that there was quite a heavy impact from the COVID on the first quarter than a year ago in the comparative base, the impact of COVID and restrictions was even greater. In this quarter we operated a couple of routes which we did not operate a year ago. We had Baltic Queen operating, not fully the entire quarter, but partially, on the Tallinn-Stockholm route. A year ago we did not operate Tallinn-Stockholm route. Similarly, on the Helsinki-Stockholm route, which was not operated a year ago, we had Silja Symphony operating throughout the quarter and Silja Serenade operating in the beginning and in the end of the quarter.

For that reason, we can see that this quarter benefited from increased volumes of passenger and passenger related business. This is evident both from the revenues structure but also in the comparison of the changes in the revenues. Mostly the biggest impact came from the restaurant and shop sales on board and on shore, which contributed compared to last year nearly EUR 30 million higher sales. The ticket sales being the second largest contributor to the increase in sales.

On the cargo side, although the cargo market and price competition in particular remained tough, the volumes were quite okay for us and also benefited from adding the routes that we did not operate a year ago. In addition to that, also we saw increased sales from the routes which we operated last year. The smaller additions also from accommodation and chartering activities. In terms of accommodation, this year we operated three hotels. Last year we only operated two hotels. Also the COVID restrictions weighed much more heavily on last year's result. In terms of chartering then the addition of long-term charter of Romantika quite in the end of the quarter had also positive impact.

The general increase in the number of passengers and activities also affected the other sales. From geographical segments, Estonia-Finland routes, both in the first quarter of this year and first quarter of last year, we were operating the two shuttle vessels and did not operate the cruise ferry Silja Europa. Basically on this route, the increase is quite comparable and comes mostly from the larger number of passengers. As explained earlier, Estonia-Sweden, we did not operate the Tallinn-Stockholm route a year ago. The addition of the operations added also to the revenues. Finland-Sweden route reflects the addition of Helsinki-Stockholm route in a year-over-year comparison, but also higher volumes on the Turku-Stockholm route.

The other segment, as mentioned, reflects also the accommodation and chartering increases as well as other retail activities. A quick snapshot on a broader and historical context. We're still very seasonal. Right now, this COVID pandemic has amplified even a bit further the seasonality of the business. As you can see on the top left chart that we are still in some ways away from normal good years' result in terms of passengers. We already managed a very similar level of passengers that we transported last year in the first two quarters. The cargo volumes have been much less impacted. These overall remained fairly stable.

Yes, when talking about the revenues, then these reflect to a large extent the developments with the passengers. On the bottom right, the EBITDA view is negative result in this quarter. However, as you can see also in 2019, the EBITDA in the first quarter, in the low season quarter, was very small. The same dynamics also apply on the net result level, and here is also quite well visible that even in the pre-COVID or normal year, the first quarter result is typically in quite extensive red territory. Very briefly, although Harri mentioned also already the financial items, I briefly mention some of the items as well.

On the right-hand column is represented the currently ended quarter. Although we increased significantly the revenues, also the cost of sales increased quite significantly, and the fuel cost here being one of the main components, driven mostly by the hike in the prices year-over-year. Overall, since the scale of operations was greater than last year, and the sales also in the restaurants and shops, then other expenses were also higher. Naturally the cost of goods sold, but also other cost items. In the marketing and administrative cost the year-over-year EUR 3 million increase mostly is attributed to higher marketing activities, which were done ahead of the start of the high season.

The other operating items reflects the aid received from the governments, and this year the aid was smaller than it was a year ago. As last year, also this year during the low season quarter, the operating cash flows remains on the negative territory. Capital expenditure this year EUR 9 million, somewhat higher than the EUR 4 million last year. This increase attributes mainly to the higher number of docks. That said, the fact that we had altogether eight docks and only EUR 9 million CapEx also reflects the fact that only very limited works were done and focused on the mostly critical items. In Q3, there were yet no asset closures, so this figure 0 in this quarter.

The debt financing impact this quarter on the cash flows came mainly from the use of overdraft. Just as a reminder that as we had agreed grace period for the principal repayments of the debt with our lenders, then we did not have any principal repayments this quarter, and the grace period was in effect until the end of the first quarter. At the end of the day, the first quarter resulted typically to a low season quarter in net cash outflows. A snapshot at the financial position. The assets remain close to EUR 1.6 billion, with the fixed assets being close to EUR 1.4 million.

The current assets, of which over half is cash, remains high, and particularly when we compare to the balances a year ago. The high cash balance continues to be supported by the amount of debt financing, with the balance of interest-bearing liabilities just EUR 11 million shy of EUR 800 million overall. The ratios, the net debt and debt ratio remains still high for now. As we are moving toward the high season quarters then we expect this figure to improve over the coming period. The same applies also for the equity asset ratio, which at the end of the quarter stood at 42%. Lastly, our debt structure also remains much unchanged. As said, there were no principal repayments during this quarter.

The total amount of interest-bearing loans together with the overdraft loans amounted to EUR 675 million, with the long-term bank loans contributing the majority of the outstanding balance. We are still waiting for the delivery of the vessel MyStar. Upon the delivery, we will draw the loan which we have signed agreement with the KfW IPEX-Bank. This concludes the presentation part of today's webinar, and we will now proceed to the questions and answers section. We will start with the questions that were sent to us prior to the webinar. Is it possible to have any comment about the value from the sale of the ship Sea Wind?

Paavo Nõgene
CEO, AS Tallink Grupp

Yes. Good afternoon also from my side. My name is Paavo Nõgene, I'm CEO. As Harri Hanschmidt already mentioned, the Sea Wind was sold a bit above of the book value. We didn't make loss with selling the Sea Wind. I think this is the most important.

Joonas Joost
Financial Director and Head of Investor Relations, AS Tallink Grupp

Thank you. Is it possible to have any comments about the value of the short-term charter of the Isabelle to the state of Estonia?

Paavo Nõgene
CEO, AS Tallink Grupp

We have answered to the media questions, which are public, that the government of Estonia pays EUR 25 per night per bed, and government of Estonia pays EUR 10 per person per day for food services.

Joonas Joost
Financial Director and Head of Investor Relations, AS Tallink Grupp

Mm.

Paavo Nõgene
CEO, AS Tallink Grupp

This is actually all what we can say.

Joonas Joost
Financial Director and Head of Investor Relations, AS Tallink Grupp

Thank you. Is there any plan for the Riga-Stockholm route for this summer? Also if the ship Victoria I can replace this route, and if not, then what are the plans for from the company for the ship Victoria I?

Paavo Nõgene
CEO, AS Tallink Grupp

We are not planning to open the Riga-Stockholm route this year. There are many reasons. Harri Hanschmidt already explained a bit the situation general, but we must understand that some markets are this summer almost closed or totally closed. We're talking about the Belarus, Ukraine and Russia, from where during the normal years Riga-Stockholm route had quite many passengers. As we don't see this summer it can happen, then the risk to open the Riga-Stockholm route is too high, and we decided it not to open this year. We are very happy that we were able to charter out the Isabelle for the Ukrainian refugees, and we really can help with vessel Ukrainians who are in really difficult situation and same time to lower the risks on that route.

What's happening with Victoria in the coming months? Can't say exactly right now, but as we have told before, we're working to find alternative works for our vessels. As you probably know, last year Victoria was operating all over the summer. We're expecting some news in store for Victoria in near future, but early to say.

Joonas Joost
Financial Director and Head of Investor Relations, AS Tallink Grupp

Thank you. As the vessel Regal Star replaces Sea Wind in the route Muuga–Vuosaari, there is only one ship in the Paldiski-Kapellskär route, the Sailor. I think there is only one ship in this route from Tallink company these days. Are there any plans for one more ship in this route as it was before?

Paavo Nõgene
CEO, AS Tallink Grupp

Currently no, but we definitely looking how the market works and we can always change our plans, but right now we continue operating with one vessel on Paldiski-Kapellskär route.

Joonas Joost
Financial Director and Head of Investor Relations, AS Tallink Grupp

Mm-hmm. There is another question concerning the Riga-Stockholm route. It's similar to the previous one, but about the outlook in the coming years. Are we planning to restart Riga-Stockholm in the coming years?

Paavo Nõgene
CEO, AS Tallink Grupp

Hard to answer. Who knows what happens tomorrow? After one week, after one month for next year. I think the geopolitical situation is quite uncertain, and we need first to see how this develops, and then we can also make the decisions. We haven't made a decision that we are not going to open Riga-Stockholm route ever again. We have made decision that we are not operating at least 12 months from now from the Riga-Stockholm route.

Joonas Joost
Financial Director and Head of Investor Relations, AS Tallink Grupp

Thank you. How does the quarterly debt repayment schedule look at this point from Q2 onwards?

Paavo Nõgene
CEO, AS Tallink Grupp

Actually, altogether, we're planning this year pay around EUR 80 million, out of which EUR 20 million is already paid. We can publish this more detailed way during the next quarter if there are interest for that. Yes, we're paying back the loans from very beginning of second quarter this year. Also working with the refinancing loan agreement which are going to end during end of this year.

Joonas Joost
Financial Director and Head of Investor Relations, AS Tallink Grupp

Thank you. Next question: Is MyStar coming in early or late Q3? Is the delay somehow compensated by the builder?

Paavo Nõgene
CEO, AS Tallink Grupp

Of course, there are in the contract different penalties, and so on. First of all, we would like that the shipyard will build the vessel ready, and then we're going to discuss all these topics as well. Right now we have information that MyStar is delivered middle of quarter three, but we would like to say that it's during the quarter three and we don't have exact date right now. There are different technical works, important technical works taking place this week and next week. After that, most probably we'll have a more clear view from the shipyard as well about the possible delivery dates.

Joonas Joost
Financial Director and Head of Investor Relations, AS Tallink Grupp

Thank you. Apart from fuel and staff costs, what other factors depressed the gross profitability?

Paavo Nõgene
CEO, AS Tallink Grupp

I would like to say this way that the Tallink Group was prepared for the first quarter in context of COVID. We really made different works to be ready for the time when the COVID is going to disappear. 24th of February started the war in Europe, and this means that we need to adapt now our business to the war situation. We're working with it. It's not an easy task, it's not quick, but we will manage it. Our aim is to finish this year with the net profit. What were the factors?

Of course, there were also factors that passengers who maybe planned to have the cruise in March and late February made new decisions because uncertainty during the geopolitical situation affected also the bookings pickup. Now we can say that in our main market, which is Finland, market actually recovers quite well. We definitely will see good increase in the passenger numbers during the second quarter. Mainly, the main issue was, of course, fuel. Staff wasn't problematic. Staff costs are actually much lower level compared with the normal year, 2019. Tallink is slim fit, but war was something we wasn't ready for. Now is the adaptation period where we just need to adapt all our business for the war situation as well.

Joonas Joost
Financial Director and Head of Investor Relations, AS Tallink Grupp

Maybe I also add that although we had several 20,000 passengers, this is quite far from a regular year where we in 2019 had almost 2 million passengers in the first quarter. Our business is volume business and has fixed cost point. About that, it gets more profitable because ships are still very modern and have amortization level and so forth, the cost of operating them. Also Q1 can be looked at a little bit of a kickstart of the operations again and a good way to be ready for the summer, but the costs always come first and then clients come later. Mm-hmm. Thank you.

Tallink's market share on Tallinn-Helsinki route has been declining since the first quarter of 2021, from 57% to 53%. Is it something to be worried about?

Paavo Nõgene
CEO, AS Tallink Grupp

We are not worried. We need also take a deeper look into the numbers who are traveling during the first quarter. Last year there were lot of restrictions, even the commuter traffic was regulated. These numbers are not actually well comparable right now. We keep our market share historically Tallinn, Helsinki. It has been together with Silja Europa which didn't operate during the first quarter. This year around 55-56% and if you take the passenger car market share, they are up to 57-58%. There are right now not to be worried. I think more important is that who asking also money for the tickets and we doing this much better than our good competitors.

Joonas Joost
Financial Director and Head of Investor Relations, AS Tallink Grupp

Thank you. Next question. Numbers indicate that the onboard sales per passenger was lower than last year. Can you say how has it developed?

Paavo Nõgene
CEO, AS Tallink Grupp

I think it's more like question of the passenger mix. How big is the share of the shuttle service and what is the share of the long cruises. Because if the shuttle picking up shuttle onboard spending is lower than the long cruises and last year, just the passenger mix between the routes were different. But onboard spending is right now, I should say, in quite historical high level, if you talk example the long routes. Onboard spending is definitely much better than it has been before.

Joonas Joost
Financial Director and Head of Investor Relations, AS Tallink Grupp

Thank you. Next question. What are your expectations for the second quarter compared to previous COVID-19 years?

Paavo Nõgene
CEO, AS Tallink Grupp

A lot depends what's happening again in the geopolitical situation, how it affects the fuel prices, what will be the inflation in our home markets, how this affects people ability to travel. Are they going to travel more afar or they stay here? We believe that people who want to travel and who have maybe a bit less money or are not very ready to go during the war situation far away, they most probably make more trips here with us to the neighboring countries. We expecting for sure that we have significantly more passengers than compared with quarter one this year. As I said, we work to get to net profit by end of the year, and this is the target we work for.

Again, war was something for what nobody wasn't ready. We do our best right now to adapt into this war business model as fast as possible. We have launched a fuel surcharge for some routes. We working even harder with the costs. We try to raise some other prices as well on board. There are a lot actually ongoing. At the same time with the vessels, as we know, Romantika is already now chartered out. So Romantika is not making any more loss for the company, but earning profit. We work with other vessels as well. As I said before, the Victoria and Isabelle is chartered out, which also not generating any more loss, but generating some small profit.

Joonas Joost
Financial Director and Head of Investor Relations, AS Tallink Grupp

Thank you. It seems that we have now answered to all the questions that we have been asked. I would like to thank Paavo and Harri, as well as all the listeners, and meet you again after the results of the second quarter.

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