Acadian Timber Corp. (TSX:ADN)
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Apr 28, 2026, 3:58 PM EST
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Earnings Call: Q2 2023

Jul 27, 2023

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Acadian Timber's Q2 2023 Analyst Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to co-host, Susan Wood, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Susan Wood
CFO, Acadian Timber

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, welcome to Acadian Timber's Q2 Conference Call. With me on the call today is Adam Sheparski, Acadian's President and Chief Executive Officer. Before discussing Acadian's results, I'll first remind everyone that in discussing our Q2 financial and operating performance, the outlook for the remainder of 2023, and responding to your questions, we may make forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks, future results may differ materially. For further information on our known risk factors, I encourage you to review our news release and MD&A, which are available on SEDAR and on our website at acadiantimber.com. I'll begin today by outlining the financial and operational highlights for our Q2 ended June 24th, 2023. Adam will provide some additional comments and discuss our outlook for the remainder of 2023.

Acadian experienced strong operational performance during the Q2, benefiting from favorable weather, which allowed harvest to continue later into the winter and to begin earlier after the spring thaw. Contractor availability increased, further enabling us to recoup a portion of the volume shortfall of the Q1. Sales for the Q2 were $20.7 million, compared to $16.5 million in the same quarter of 2022. Sales volume, excluding biomass, increased 18% compared to the prior year period. Weighted average selling price, excluding biomass, increased 9% year-over-year, benefiting from strong softwood sawlog and hardwood pulpwood pricing, driven by strong demand. Pricing for softwood sawlogs increased 14% compared to the prior year period, driven by strong demand, while hardwood sawlog pricing decreased 9% due to declines in end-use markets.

Demand remained stable for softwood pulpwood, however, pricing decreased 9% year-over-year due to changes in customer and product mix. Hardwood pulpwood pricing increased 12% over the same period of 2022, though pricing and demand began to weaken as a result of higher regional supply. Biomass prices were 88% higher due to favorable market conditions. Operating costs and expenses were CAD 15.5 million during the Q2, compared to CAD 13.8 million during the prior year period, reflecting higher sales volumes. Weighted average variable costs, excluding biomass, were 10% lower as compared to the prior year period, primarily as a result of lower fuel costs and shorter hauling distances, partially offset by increased contractor rates. Adjusted EBITDA totaled CAD 5.7 million during the quarter, compared to CAD 2.7 million in the prior period.

Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 27%, compared to 17% in the prior year period. Our net income for the Q2 was CAD 5.8 million, compared to CAD 4.5 million in the prior year period. The increase in net income compared to the prior year period, was primarily the result of higher operating income and the gain on sale of timberlands, partially offset by lower non-cash fair value adjustments. Acadian generated CAD 4.1 million of free cash flow and declared dividends of CAD 4.9 million to our shareholders during the Q2, or CAD 0.29 per share. I'll now move into the Q2 results for our New Brunswick operations. Sales for our New Brunswick timberlands were CAD 16.6 million, compared to CAD 13.5 million during the prior year period.

Sales volume, excluding biomass, increased by 17%, primarily due to favorable weather conditions and increased contractor availability. With regards to softwood sawlogs, demand remained stable, with volumes relatively consistent with the prior year period. Demand for softwood pulpwood was strong, with volumes twice that of Q2 2022. New Brunswick pricing for softwood sawlogs and softwood pulpwood increased by 3% and 2%, respectively, compared to the prior year period. Hardwood sawlog and hardwood pulpwood volumes in New Brunswick increased 65% and 15%, respectively, compared to the prior year period, as a result of stable demand and favorable operating conditions during the quarter. Prices for hardwood sawlogs were 5% lower than the prior year period due to weakening end-use markets, while prices for hardwood pulpwood were 14% higher than the prior period due to strong demand.

Operating costs in the Q2 totaled $11.9 million, compared to $13.4 million in the prior year period, reflecting higher sales volumes. Weighted average variable costs, excluding biomass, were 15% lower, primarily as a result of lower fuel costs and shorter hauling distances, partially offset by increased contractor rates. New Brunswick's Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $5 million, compared to $2.7 million in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 30% compared to 20% in the prior period. Switching over to Maine. Sales during the Q2 totaled $4.1 million, compared to $2.9 million in the same period last year. Sales volume, excluding biomass, increased 20%, also reflecting the improved operating conditions over the prior year.

Softwood sawlog volumes in Maine increased 25% as compared to the prior year period, due to favorable operating conditions and stable demand. In U.S. dollar terms, pricing for softwood sawlogs increased 18% compared to Q2 2022. Softwood pulpwood volumes decreased 89%, and pricing decreased 9% in U.S. dollar terms as compared to the prior year period due to reduced demand, though it should be noted that softwood pulpwood volumes are relatively modest. Hardwood sawlog volumes were consistent with the prior year period, although pricing decreased 19% in U.S. dollar terms for the same reasons as New Brunswick. Hardwood sawlog volumes in Maine are also relatively modest. Hardwood pulpwood volumes increased 26%, and pricing remained consistent compared to Q2 2022, due to stable demand and a favorable customer mix.

Operating costs totaled CAD 3.1 million in the quarter, compared to CAD 2.6 million during the same period last year, primarily due to increased harvesting activity. Weighted average variable costs, excluding biomass, increased 5% in Canadian dollar terms as compared to the prior year period, primarily as a result of higher contractor rates. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was CAD 1.1 million, compared to CAD 0.4 million during the prior year period, and Adjusted EBITDA margin was 27%, compared to 12% in the prior year period. With respect to Acadian's financial position at the end of the quarter, it remained strong, ending with a net liquidity position of CAD 17 million, including funds available under our revolving credit facilities. I'll turn the call over to Adam.

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

Thank you, Susan. Good afternoon, everyone. Starting with safety, as always, Acadian remains committed to health and safety as our number one priority, and during the Q2, there were no recordable safety incidents among our employees or our contractors. We are very proud of all the hard work and dedication towards safety that is shown on a daily basis across the organization. Moving over to the quarterly results, while the Q2 is traditionally our slowest due to seasonal operating conditions, weather in the Q2 was much more favorable than we usually experience. As Susan mentioned, we were able to harvest later into the winter and to begin earlier after the spring thaw. These favorable weather conditions were also complemented by additional flexibility within the contractor workforce that allowed for an increase in volumes during the quarter.

Fortunately, as a result of a lot of hard work from the operations team over the last few quarters, the difficulties associated with limited contractor availability abated somewhat, and combined with the favorable weather conditions, allowed us to catch up on much of our planned volume for the first half of the year and put us on a path to achieve our annual harvest volumes. The current dynamics of the Northeast forestry sector supported stable pricing and demand during the Q2, and there remains some tension in the supply chain, which supports the stability of our weighted average sales pricing and allows for the recovery of the increased inflationary costs that we have experienced. As I am sure most of you are aware, we have been working on our first carbon development and marketing project on approximately 190,000 acres of the Maine timberlands.

We are pleased to report that the first carbon credits associated with this project were registered on the American Carbon Registry on June 8th, under the name Anew- Katahdin Forestry Project. These 770,000 credits are now available for sale, with the focus now shifting to marketing and selling these credits. As previously disclosed, the current project has a 10-year crediting period. With the credits from the first crediting period registered, we will now work towards registering the next batch, which is expected to be approximately 215,000 credits. This project has provided valuable experience to Acadian and has formed the foundation for any potential further carbon credit development projects. As you may have seen, the draft Canadian Federal Forest Carbon Offset Protocol was released earlier this month.

The Acadian team is currently analyzing the draft, which, when finalized, will also form part of our decision-making process. As we have stated from the beginning, we will take what we have learned from our project in Maine, combined with the new protocols being developed in Canada, in determining what are the future carbon credit opportunities for Acadian. Turning to our outlook for the remainder of 2023, North American inflation concerns persist and interest rates continue to increase, which has put near-term pressure on end-use markets. However, we remain confident that the stability of the Northeastern forestry sector and combined housing shortages and repair and remodel activity will support the demand for our products. Consensus forecast for U.S. housing starts has risen to approximately 1.37 million in 2023.

As we have noted previously, demand for Acadian's hardwood and softwood sawlogs is mainly driven by regional supply and demand, meaning that the stable demand experience in the first half of 2023 is expected to continue. Pricing for softwood saw timber is expected to remain stable. However, pricing for hardwood saw timber may weaken, reflecting the recent softness in hardwood lumber pricing. While regional inventories of hardwood pulpwood have been replenished and demand has begun to slow, this market is expected to remain stable as our marketing efforts have diversified our customer base. Demand and pricing in softwood pulpwood markets are expected to remain at the improved levels experienced in 2022 and the beginning of 2023, although there is some uncertainty in Maine as a result of a recent temporary shutdown of a facility.

As we enter the Q3, we are optimistic that continued stable regional demand and pricing for our project, products, together with the increased contracted capacity we have secured, will support our planned harvest volumes. Combined with the potential monetization of the first 770,000 carbon credits, will produce solid financial results for the remainder of the year. Acadian continues to benefit from a strong balance sheet, continued diversification of our markets, and a highly capable team focused on strong financial and operating performance. As always, we will remain focused on merchandising our products to attain the highest margins available and making improvements throughout the business to maximize cash flows from our existing timberland assets.

We continue to explore opportunities to grow, as demonstrated by our advancement into the carbon credit market, opportunistic land sales as evidenced during the quarter, and exploring additional land use opportunities such as renewable energy and additional land leasing. With that, we are now available to take your questions. Operator?

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the current roster. Again, to ask a question, please press star one one. One moment. Our first question coming from the line of Andrew Kuske with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Andrew Kuske
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Thanks. Good afternoon. Maybe just on the carbon credits, I think in the MD&A, you've registered the 770,000 thereabouts. I think in the notes it also discusses, you recorded on the inventory at lower cost and net realizable value, and I think you've got a $14 million marker on that. Do I have those numbers right? How does the $1.9 million sort of credits, I guess that includes credits that aren't registered, that you upsized in the quarter? I know that's like a bunch of numbers that I just threw at you, but how should I think about all the numbers that are kind of new in the financials this quarter?

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

Hi, Andrew. Thanks for the questions. I'll do my best to answer them. You can follow up if I miss anything. Yes, 770 were registered. There is $14 million in inventory on the balance sheet. That amount was journalized, a non-cash item, out of our timberland asset valuation, into inventory, which is the current view from an accounting perspective. You're right, the 1.6-1.9 credits, that is an adjustment as we continue to evaluate the project and it will continue to move as we move forward through the project. The remaining credits haven't been registered. In my notes, we do have 215,000 that we're hoping to register here shortly.

We refer to it as reporting period 2, which is, in essence, fiscal 2022. There will be this lag, and it will credit over a 10-year period of time. We'll pick up the remaining credits. I think all your numbers are right, that you quoted, and that's sort of how the project's going to play itself out over the next 10 years.

Andrew Kuske
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Okay, I appreciate that. Maybe just one nitpicky clarification. The CAD 14 million of inventory relates to the CAD 770,000...

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

Correct.

Andrew Kuske
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

That have been registered. Okay, excellent.

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

Right.

Andrew Kuske
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Then maybe just a follow-up. you know, what, what, I guess, what ability do you have to sell, to transfer these credits to actually realize and crystallize some value associated with the credits that you've now, you know, sort of carved out on the balance sheet?

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

We are in a marketing agreement with our developer. realistically, you know, all these projects are bespoke, and they go into negotiations with people to buy these credits. that, you know, that will determine how many an individual buyer might buy and what they will pay for those credits. Fortunately, our project is viewed as desirable, so that's great news for us. In essence, because they've become registered, technically all 770,000 could be sold in the near term. We don't know how that's going to unfold.

You know, I think the team at Anew is working very hard to monetize those credits, and hopefully over the next quarter or 2, we'll have a lot more insight as to how that's gonna unfold from a cash flow perspective.

Andrew Kuske
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Okay, that's excellent. If I could just sneak in one, and maybe this is a bigger question I should have started off with. If we look at the quarter, I mean, obviously, all the things that were bad in the last couple of quarters from a weather standpoint, contractor availability standpoint, inflation standpoint, kind of all flipped the other way.

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

Mm-hmm.

Andrew Kuske
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Not, not to be complacent about it, but it seems like you've gone from some real negative headwinds to maybe, let's not call them tailwinds, but... It kind of broke the back of the contractor availability, some of the inflationary pressures going away, weather got better. Maybe just on the contractor availability, like, what was the change in strategy to sort of rectify that? How sustainable is that on a go-forward basis?

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

It's a great question, and love to talk about it because we did spend a lot of time working on it over the last couple of quarters. I think we got a lot better at analyzing data inside of Acadian over the last 6 to 9 months and understanding, you know, costing for our contractors, and how we can help them be more efficient, either with backhauls or you name it. Working closely with them to understand that, obviously, you've seen our costs come up. That was part of the equation, and we were able to do that in a very confined or restrained manner to not get into a situation where we overpaid, so we were quite happy with that.

I think, you know, that openness with our contractors and working with them like that has attracted new contractors to us, and we're getting a lot of calls incoming, which has been, you know, great. We still have a lot of, you know, a lot of room to grow from a data perspective, but pretty happy with what we've, what we've done. Still looking to increase our contractor capacity in the region as well, so that's good. You know, you talked about headwinds and tailwinds. It does certainly feel like we have had a lot of tailwinds this quarter. Mother Nature is still Mother Nature, so that's always gonna be a challenge. I would say that there is some uncertainty in the market. There is a little bit of, I would say, traction, I would hesitate to say.

There is that, that risk moving forward a bit as well, even though it's offset by a fair amount by the Northeastern forestry sector.

Andrew Kuske
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Okay. I appreciate the color. Thank you.

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

No problem. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. The line is open.

Paul Quinn
Senior Network Engineer, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks very much. Morning, guys, or afternoon, where you are. Just, yeah, no, I got some questions on carbon, too. Just so I understand the full, full picture here that. You've registered the 770,000 credits. You disclosed here that you've got another 215,000 credits that you expect to report shortly. Is that 215 the exact sort of same bucket as the 134,000 credits that you were talking about last quarter?

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

Good morning, Paul. Yes, it is. It went from 134 up to 215.

Paul Quinn
Senior Network Engineer, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, then the CAD 14 million increase in inventory, is that just, that's just to account for the 770,000 credits or effectively CAD 18 a credit, right?

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

It is just the 770,000 credits. That's correct.

Paul Quinn
Senior Network Engineer, RBC Capital Markets

The CAD 215,000, does that encapsulate all the, you know, the total of the 10 years worth, or is that, Are you gonna see any more over the next 10 years than the combination of the CAD 770,000 and the CAD 215,000?

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

Yes. To do the simple math, the 215 plus the 770, call it, you know, I guess that's a million or so.

Paul Quinn
Senior Network Engineer, RBC Capital Markets

Yep.

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

At this point in time, we expect to get to 1.9 million credits over the life of the project. There will be another 900,000 credits expected over the next 8 years.

Paul Quinn
Senior Network Engineer, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Okay, that's, that's really helpful. Okay, just a question on cash flow. I mean, you guys are generating kind of $20 million in EBITDA a year. You've got $14 million sort of tied up on your balance sheet with these credits. How do you monetize that? You know, do you have to sell that in a block, and you sell it in piecemeal? How are you gonna approach the sales of those?

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

Through Anew, you know, it's to be determined how they sell it. There is, I'm not speaking about our project specifically, just in general terms, you know, customers can buy anywhere from one to an unlimited number of credits. As I mentioned, it's sort of bespoke in that, you know, it's depending on what the customer wants and the customer is willing to pay for. Everything from, like I said, a very small number of credits to, you know, you could have someone trying to buy the entire project if they really like the story that goes with the project. I can't tell you, "This is how it's going to work," because it really depends on the customer base that comes forward to buy it.

All that to say is, you know, we hope to start monetizing it in the very short term, but we'll have to wait and see how the customers come forward.

Paul Quinn
Senior Network Engineer, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, just sort of last high-level question on this. I mean, you, for this carbon project, you looked at 190,000 acres. You sort of, you know, mentioned that you expect 1.9 million credits over that. Is a simple math there, you know, kind of the 1.9 million divided by the 190,000 hectares in terms of, you know, sort of credits per acre, or how variable is that within your timber base?

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

Yeah, it's a good, it's a good question. I mean, I think that would be a, it could be a number, Paul, and I say that not being in any way sarcastic. The problem is that that number can fluctuate dramatically based on, you know, decision-making as far as how much harvesting we decide to do if we decided to do another project or you have to determine baselines associated with carbon projects. That, that number could change the amount of available carbon credits on a particular land base. There's not a generic, you know, simple math that I can give you because our land base is somewhat different depending on where you're at. I would say they're all high potential for carbon credits.

Just the type of stands that we have are viewed very highly, which is what you've seen in, I think, recent sales associated with Timberlands in the north and the value that's been put on them by carbon producers. If you're just trying to do a high level of math, you could do that. I mean, the assumption, as we've always said, is we're not significantly impacting our harvesting with this current project. I would just take that into consideration when you try and do the estimates.

Paul Quinn
Senior Network Engineer, RBC Capital Markets

At the end of the day, I mean, just on that last statement, that you're not really impacting harvesting, there's really no material offsets to the extra sort of carbon, carbon cash flow that you, that you've got as reduced, as a function of reduced harvest?

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

Correct.

Paul Quinn
Senior Network Engineer, RBC Capital Markets

Sounds interesting. Congratulations and best of luck.

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

Thanks, Paul.

Operator

Thank you. I'm not showing any questions in the queue at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Sheparski for any closing remarks.

Adam Sheparski
President and CEO, Acadian Timber

Thank you, operator. On behalf of the Board and Management of Acadian, I would like to thank all of our shareholders for their ongoing support. Thank you, stay safe, and we look forward to joining us for our Q3 Conference Call on November 2nd. Goodbye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does end our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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