Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to Aritzia's fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2023 earnings call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To join the question queue, you may press Star then one on your telephone keypad. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing Star then zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Beth Dart , Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, and thanks for joining Aritzia's fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2023 earnings call. On the call today, I'm joined by Jennifer Wong, our Chief Executive Officer, and Todd Ingledew, our Chief Financial Officer. Please note the remarks on this call may include our expectations, future plans and intentions that may constitute forward-looking information. Such forward-looking information is based on estimates and assumptions made by management regarding, among other things, general economic and geopolitical conditions and the competitive environment. Actual results may differ materially from the conclusions, forecasts or projections expressed by the forward-looking information.
We would refer you to our most recently filed quarterly and annual Management's Discussion and Analysis and our Annual Information Form that are available on SEDAR, which include a summary of the material assumptions as well as risks and factors that could affect our future performance and our ability to deliver on the forward-looking information. Our earnings release, the financial statements, and the MD&A are available on SEDAR, as well as the investor relations section of our website. I'll now turn the call over to Jennifer.
Thanks, Beth Dart, and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Our strong results in Q4 wrapped up a tremendous year where the momentum in our business surpassed our highest expectations. After 37 years of consistent growth, Aritzia reached 1 billion in sales in fiscal 2022, and just 14 months after that, we achieved 2 billion, ending fiscal 2023 $ 2.2 billion in sales. This resulted in an unprecedented two-year top line increase of 160% and a new 2.2 billion baseline from which we will continue to grow. Maximizing sales and meeting the surging demand for our product in an extremely dynamic operating environment was our top priority for the last two years.
In fiscal 2023, we delivered 47% net revenue growth on top of 74% in fiscal 2022, primarily driven by client acquisition with consistency across customer metrics such as spend per client, shopping frequency, and basket size. More people than ever before discovered our much loved everyday luxury experience with our active client base in the United States, increasing by more than 50% during the year, on top of an increase of over 100% in the prior year. In addition, we added seven new boutiques in the United States to an increase of 18%. The U.S. now generates more than half of our total net revenue, and we still have a long runway of growth ahead of us. Turning to Q4, record sales were higher than anticipated across all channels and all geographies.
Net revenue of 638 million increased 44% from last year with comparable sales growth of 32%. This growth was primarily fueled by our business in the U.S., where outstanding pace continued, growing by 56% from last year, while in Canada we saw strong sales growth of 32%. In eCommerce, revenue grew an impressive 51% in Q4, driven by traffic growth in both Canada and the U.S., as well as improvement in conversion due to search and browse site enhancements and our improved inventory position compared to last year. We also made progress toward delivering eCommerce 2.0. Personalized and product recommendation tests showed increased conversion rates and higher revenue per session.
We will continue to further refine our personalization strategies as we execute on our eCommerce 2.0 roadmap to ensure that we are bringing a captivating, personalized experience to our clients throughout their shopping journey on Aritzia.com. We will seek to inspire the customer to discover our entire diverse product assortment while tailoring content to their individual style and preferences to keep them engaged. We continue to believe that eCommerce 2.0 is the key to more than doubling our eCommerce revenue by fiscal 2027. Our retail net revenue increased 38% in Q4, surpassing our expectations. Our momentum in the quarter was fueled by outstanding comparable sales growth in our boutiques as well as the progress we made on our real estate expansion strategy.
We opened two new boutiques during the quarter, La Cantera in San Antonio, Texas, which is a new market for us and our 4th boutique in the state of Texas. Fashion Outlets of Chicago. Later this month, we will open our 5th boutique in Texas, Southlake Town Center in Dallas. New locations continue to open above our sales expectations, and our growing collection of premier boutiques remains our number one client acquisition tool by propelling our brand and driving and supporting our eCommerce business. In Q4, we also expanded our Upper Canada boutique in Ontario to a stunning 15,000 sq ft space, including an A-OK Cafe. Our boutique expansions continue to perform exceptionally well with better-than-expected payback periods as the additional square footage allows us to provide our clients with an elevated shopping experience and a meaningfully wider product assortment.
In product, sales of our professional assortments continued to increase even as we maintained our momentum in casual and activewear styles. We also experienced another strong outerwear season as we continue to be the destination for the Super Puff and wool coat. Our Super Puff influencer program strengthened throughout winter with the Super Puff seen on celebrities like Tracee Ellis Ross, Lupita Nyong'o, and even Martha Stewart. We also continue to see strong results through our partnership with Emma Chamberlain, and recently featured her as the face of our Sunday Best spring campaign, Sunday Musing with Emma. Supported by our social and influencer strategies, our beautiful product and real estate expansion strategy are driving increased awareness of the Aritzia brand and a greater market share, propelling us along our path to gaining widespread recognition across the U.S.
Shifting to supply chain, we took possession of our new cornerstone distribution center in Toronto, which will serve as a fulfillment hub for Eastern Canada and Eastern United States as soon as the floor was poured in January. As a reminder, we are moving from a third-party operated 150,000 square foot facility to a brand new Aritzia operated 550,000 square foot location that is designed to support several years of growth. The racking is in now, and it remains on track to open in late August. We ended the quarter with inventory up 125% over last year. Our inventory is heavily concentrated in client favorites, and the year-over-year growth has further moderated throughout Q1 of fiscal 2024. We continue to expect growth to more closely align with sales trends by the end of Q2.
Our growing recognition and industry-leading wages have allowed us to continue attracting world-class talent. The ongoing investments that we're making in retail labor help ensure that our clients continue to receive exceptional service, which is a key tenet of our everyday luxury experience. We are continuing to make smart strategic investments in our future. For example, we're currently in the process of upgrading our point-of-sale system for increased stability and performance while laying the foundation for future enhancements such as mobile point of sale and omni-channel services. In addition, we are investing in talent across all areas of the business as we scale our teams to align with our recent growth.
That said, while we continue to strategically invest with a long-term view, we are also focused on optimizing our processes to more efficiently manage our current business and ensure scalability for our ongoing growth. We have already identified and actioned opportunities that will deliver cost efficiencies beginning in the back half of the year, which Todd will discuss momentarily. Turning to ESG, as Aritzia continues to grow and as our clients strive to live and purchase better, we're working to extend our sustainability programs and accelerate our progress across the value chain. Fiscal 2023 was our first full year with an established environmental and social board committee, and we plan to publish our second annual ESG report in June. I will now pass the call over to Todd.
Thanks, Jennifer. Good afternoon, everyone. We're extremely pleased to have delivered another quarter of exceptional growth. We generated net revenue of $638 million in the fourth quarter, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and representing an increase of 44% from last year, supported by comparable sales growth of 32%. Our business in the U.S. sustained its outstanding growth with net revenue of $337 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of 56% from last year. This momentum reflects our growing brand awareness and the significant increase in our U.S. client base. We also experienced strong growth in Canada, where net revenue increased 32% to $ 300 million.
In eCommerce, our business continued to grow sequentially, with net revenue increasing 51% to $274 million. Even as demand in our boutiques remained extremely robust. This speaks to the strength of our multi-channel business. eCommerce trends were strong across all geographies, primarily driven by traffic growth as well as increased conversion rates. Net revenue in our retail channel was $363 million, an increase of 38%. This was led by growth in the United States, where our comparable new and expanded boutiques all performed exceptionally. Our Canadian boutiques also saw meaningful growth as we lapped a period of restrictions from the Omicron wave during our peak selling period in the fourth quarter last year. We delivered growth-gross profit of $242 million, up 35% compared to the fourth quarter last year.
Gross profit margin was 38% as expected, declining 240 basis points from 40.4% last year. The decline was primarily driven by additional warehousing costs related to inventory management, ongoing inflationary pressures, normalized markdowns, and the weakening of the Canadian dollar. These headwinds were partially offset by lower expedited freight costs and leverage on occupancy and depreciation costs. SG&A expenses were $ 171 million or 26.9% of net revenue, compared to 27.1% last year. Leverage from increased revenue was partially offset by investments in retail and support office talent, marketing initiatives and technology to support our accelerated momentum and fuel our future growth. Our adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $ 79 million, an increase of 20% from last year.
Adjusted EBITDA was 12.4% of net revenue, compared to 14.9% last year. The margin pressure reflects ongoing inflationary pressure and investments in our infrastructure to sustain our rapid growth. At the end of the fourth quarter, inventory was in line with our expectations at $ 468 million, an increase of 125% compared to the end of the fourth quarter last year. As of last Sunday, April 30th, our inventory was up 76%, and we continue to expect the year-over-year growth to normalize by the end of the second quarter. Our total committed inventory at the end of the fourth quarter, which includes on-hand, in transit, and on order with the factory, was up 14% over last year.
Our liquidity position remained strong at the end of the fourth quarter, with $87 million in cash and zero drawn on our $ 175 million revolving credit facility. I will now shift to our outlook for the first quarter and fiscal year 2024. The first quarter is off to a healthy start. We are on track to deliver first quarter net revenue in the range of $ 450 million- $460 million, representing an increase of approximately 10%-13% compared to the first quarter last year. We continue to see strength in the United States across both our eCommerce and retail channels, as well as continued growth in Canada.
For the full year of fiscal 2024, we expect net revenue to be in the range of $ 2.42 billion-$ 2.5 billion, representing growth of 10%-14% from fiscal 2023, including the 53rd week. This growth is on top of a 47% increase last year and 74% increase in fiscal 2022. Our fiscal 2024 net revenue outlook reflects current trends and the cadence of our boutique openings. In the fiscal year, we plan to open eight new boutiques and to expand or reposition four boutiques, all located in the United States. We anticipate square footage growth of approximately 15% this year, with the majority occurring in the fourth quarter.
Six of the eight new boutiques will open in the second half of the fiscal year, including three in the last month of the fiscal year. In fiscal 2025, we expect top-line momentum to accelerate with the addition of the boutiques late in fiscal 2024, along with accelerated square footage growth of approximately 20% planned for fiscal 2025. Our expected revenue growth keeps us well on track to meet or exceed our long-term target of $3.5 billion-$3.8 billion in fiscal 2027. We expect gross profit margin for the year to decline by approximately 200 basis points compared to last year. This reflects ongoing product and supply chain cost inflation, normalized markdowns, pre-opening lease amortization for our new cornerstone distribution center and flagship boutiques in Manhattan and Chicago, and additional warehousing costs related to inventory management.
These headwinds will be partially offset by lower expedited freight costs. These pressures are expected to drive gross profit margin decline of approximately 600 basis points in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, we expect moderate gross profit margin expansion as transitory warehousing costs subside. We benefit from IMU improvements, and we lap product and supply chain cost inflation from the second half of last year. SG&A as a % of net revenue is expected to increase by approximately 150 basis points compared to last year. Pressure will be concentrated in the first half, driven by the Eastern Distribution Centre project costs and the annualization of investments in talent and increased retail wages made in the second half of last year.
These pressures are expected to drive SG&A margin decline of approximately 400 basis points in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, we expect modest SG&A leverage. While we anticipate substantial margin headwinds in the first half of fiscal 2024, we expect to see adjusted EBITDA margin expansion beginning in the second half. The leverage in the second half will be partially driven by one of our strategic focuses for the year, which is to optimize our processes to more efficiently manage our current business and ensure scalability for our ongoing growth. We have already identified and begun to action opportunities that will deliver cost efficiencies, spanning negotiations with vendors, KPI improvements, and automation opportunities.
Looking further ahead, in fiscal 2025, we expect our adjusted EBITDA margin to return to, at a minimum, 16%, driven by IMU improvements, cost efficiencies, and subsiding transitory cost pressures, all totaling an expected benefit of approximately 400 basis points. As set out in our long-term growth plan, we continue to expect to achieve an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 19% by fiscal 2027. We expect capital expenditures for fiscal 2024 of approximately $ 220 million, comprised primarily of new and repositioned boutiques, our new 550,000 sq ft cornerstone Distribution Centre, as well as support office expansion. We continue to expect total capital expenditures of approximately $ 500 million through fiscal 2027.
Our balance sheet is strong, and even with the capital investments for fiscal 2024, we expect to generate meaningful positive cash flow as our inventory levels normalize, resulting in an even stronger financial position at the end of the year. In closing, I'd like to highlight three things. First, we've experienced unprecedented growth over the last two years and are forecasted in fiscal 2024 to focus on building infrastructure to support our higher baseline and ensure scalability for our next phase of growth. Second, our boutique opening cadence will drive accelerated momentum in fiscal 2025. Third, we expect actions taken this year to return our adjusted EBITDA margin to, at a minimum, 16% in fiscal 2025.
While we expect to see near-term margin pressure, we are confident that our growth strategies, targeted infrastructure investments, and process optimizations will drive sustained double-digit revenue and earnings growth for the long term while delivering meaningful value for our shareholders. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Jennifer.
Thanks, Todd. As Todd mentioned, the first quarter of fiscal 2024 is off to a healthy start, and new seasonal styles are resonating well with our clients. We continue to see strength in the United States across both our eCommerce and retail channels, as well as continued growth in Canada. While quarter to date sales trends have normalized from the unprecedented levels of growth we saw over the past two years, the strength of the Aritzia brand gives us confidence that we remain well-positioned to capitalize on all of our opportunities in front of us. As we digest the tremendous growth that we have experienced over the past two years, building our foundation for the next phase of growth ahead is our top priority. We are confident in the sustainability of our new higher baseline from which we will continue to advance our growth strategies.
This is why in fiscal 2024, we are focused on investing in infrastructure to support the size of our business today and fuel our future growth, always with a long-term approach. Our expected revenue growth keeps us well on track to meet or exceed our long-term target of 3.5 billion- 3.8 billion in fiscal 2027. We also remain committed to our 19% adjusted EBITDA margin target by fiscal 2027 as we expect to benefit from multiple tailwinds beginning later this year and as the mix of our business shifts further into the U.S. and e-commerce.
In closing, I would like to reiterate that we are confident that our growth strategies, targeted infrastructure investments, and cost efficiencies will drive sustained double-digit revenue and earnings growth for the long term while delivering meaningful value for shareholders. I would also like to thank our dedicated teams for their commitment to excellence as we transition into our next phase of growth, as we're all energized and excited for all that is to come.
With that, Brenda, we're ready to please now begin Q&A.
Certainly. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To join the question queue, you may press Star then one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press Star then two. We'll pause for a moment as callers join the queue. The first question comes from Mark Petrie from CIBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Good afternoon. Could you go through a little bit on the gross margin drivers? Maybe just sort of break down the biggest drivers, and give us a sense of sort of the relative first half, second half, impact of each of them.
Yep, sure, Mark. Ongoing inflation is the largest impact to the margins in the first half, and obviously, that continues into the second half as well. We're expecting, as I said, approximately 600 basis points of pressure in the first half, and it will moderate to expansion in the second half. We're expecting expansion in the second half. This is really from a cost perspective, a tale of two halves. The other pressures in the first half are those that we experienced already in the fourth quarter. Normalized markdowns, the transitory warehousing costs related to our inventory management.
We also this year have pre-opening lease amortization for our Toronto Distribution Center, as well as our new flagship locations, you know, where we're repositioning all of the Manhattan flagships, as well as opening a new flagship in Chicago. Those have pre-amortization of the lease costs associated that are hitting now. That's the pressure in the first half. As we move into the second half of the year, we will have our new Distribution Center open at the end of August, which is the end of the second quarter. That will, along with the moderating of our inventory levels, will improve our supply chain costs, you know, not immediately at the beginning of the third quarter, but starting at the beginning and sort of working through the end of the year.
We'll benefit from that as well as, we will benefit from IMU improvements in the back half of the year and also, leverage on rent. Those are the key drivers. You know, obviously important to note, as I said, that we expect those improvements to begin to show in the back half, but continue to improve, into fiscal 2025.
Right. Okay. Can you quantify the impact of the warehousing costs in Q1 or in H1 or Q1 or Q2?
For the full year, it's just a little under 100 basis points, so it would be north of 200 basis points, for the first half, because that's where the majority of the pressure will be.
Okay.
Some of it will linger into the back half. I guess I just want to be clear on that.
Yeah. Okay. That was my other question, I guess, just related to that, was, you know, you commented about inventory levels continue to expect to normalize closer to revenue growth, you know, by the end of Q2. Is that, is that still the case? How will that affect the gross margin in the second half?
Yeah, 100%. We're on track with our inventory levels. You know, as I indicated, just this Sunday, we were at 76%, and we expect it to be fully moderated to our revenue growth by the end of the second quarter. That will be part of the benefit we'll see in the back half of the year where we won't have the higher handling costs that are currently associated with that. It just won't be immediate because we have, you know, auxiliary warehouse facilities that we have to exit and close down, et cetera. It won't be immediate as we open the new Distribution Centre, but through the back half, those costs will dissipate.
Yeah, understood. Okay. And you referenced improving product margins. Is that a reflection of a decision about pricing within the portfolio, or is that simply a reflection of, you know, new products continuing to come in at targeted margins? Where did you land on the whole pricing analysis?
I'll just jump in on that one. As Todd mentioned, we do expect to improve our IMU margins, and we're really strategically approaching our IMU margins. You'll see it through a combination of cost efficiencies, and as we mentioned on a previous call, some selective pricing where we know that the value proposition makes sense for our customer. The key thing here is we're thinking about the IMU strategy carefully. Above all, I guess, just to remind you that as our U.S. sales mix increases, we do get a natural pricing increase and a natural IMU benefit.
Yeah, understood. Okay. Then I guess just one last question, just with regards to the trajectory on sales growth. obviously appreciating that you're lapping some enormous growth over the last couple of years. I'm just curious, when you're looking at sort of the trends of Q1 or thinking about fiscal 2024 more broadly, is the deceleration consistent across geographies and channels, or are you seeing shifts in behavior that suggest, you know, there's, you know, one channel or one geography is behaving a little bit differently?
No. What we're seeing like, you know, high level, what we're seeing is strength in our brand, strength in our product. Product continues to resonate with our customer. As we've mentioned on the call, it's broad-based. We're not seeing any regional differences. It's strength across all geographies, all channels, eCommerce, retail, Canada, U.S., East, West. You know, what we're controlling or delivering on for our customer. Todd's outlook takes into account current trends and the macro effects. Really what we're seeing is strength in the Aritzia brand and everyday luxury. I guess really there's no question that, you know, when the weather pops, we usually see a positive impact on our sales. I mean, for God's sakes, it snowed. I think it snowed in the mid-Midwest there.
What is it, seven degrees in Toronto or 11? Seven degrees in Toronto where you are. You know, overall, we're still very confident in the strength of Aritzia and what we're seeing high level.
Understood. Appreciate the comments. All the best.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Irene Nattel from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thanks, good afternoon, everyone. Just wondering how confident are you in both, you know, the 16%+ EBITDA margin target for F25? What would be the factors that you could see that would cause you to miss that margin target?
We're extremely confident in hitting that target. It's based on the items that I mentioned. One is the benefits that we're expecting from IMU increases. You know, we'll see some in the fall of this year or the back half of this year. But that will translate into next year as well. Then the cost efficiencies that we're currently working on. We've been, you know, really department by department, going through the process optimization opportunities, and we expect meaningful benefit from that exercise. You know, we've already implemented some and are expecting, you know, have a long list of others that we are expecting to implement between now and the back half of the year.
As well as the subsiding of the transitory costs that we keep talking about. You know, one of those is obviously the extra handling from the inventory. As we open the new Distribution Centre, that will no longer be an issue going into next year. Also, you know, the project costs associated with that new Distribution Centre, which are being expensed in the first half of this year. We also have, as I mentioned, the pre-opening costs, the lease amortization that as we open these new buildings and then the new flagship locations next year, those costs will become a tailwind as obviously we begin to generate revenue.
All of those items put together, we feel very confident in the 400 basis points, that would, you know, get us back to the 16%.
That's helpful, Todd. Thank you. Just kind of thinking through. If the new DC is coming online late in Q2, what are you assuming in terms of sort of the ramp around efficiencies, around throughput? You know, is this a case where it really does actually ramp really quickly, or do you have to kind of do it start slowly? Anything you can tell us around that, please.
It's an excellent question. On the operations side here, there's always a ramp. It's a new building for us. It's going to be a whole new crew. Luckily, we're onboarding a lot of the supervisors and the management team here in Vancouver, we think they'll hit the ground running. Certainly it's a new facility. It's a much larger facility. We do expect that our metrics will improve over time, certainly we'll see a benefit as soon as we move in compared to what we're experiencing right now.
That's great. Thank you. Just finally, one question on the CapEx. In your prepared remarks, you said that you still think it's going to be about 500 million to F2027. That implies, given the 220 million in F2024, that implies a substantial
Step down. Again, you know, what is your confidence in that 500 million? Is it really just around once Toronto is done, that's the big chunk of it?
Yeah. Look, I, as we've said, this year is a year of investment. Whether that's on the capital front or on the expense side and, you know, rightsizing our processes, et cetera, this year is about investment because of the phenomenal growth we've seen. The capital is obviously concentrated this year. There's about $ 100 million of the 220 is from infrastructure spend. DC, our Distribution Centre in Toronto would be one of the components there, but also our 3PL in Columbus, Ohio. We're expanding that from 250,000 sq ft approximately to approximately 500,000 sq ft. There's capital being outlaid there. We have support office expansion that's hitting this year as well.
You know, those projects, while we will likely have another DC on the West Coast before the end of the lull period, which we communicated previously, the large infrastructure builds are happening this year. Then on the store or the boutique expansion front, the other 120 million is related to that. That's for the eight new stores this year as well as the four expanded or repositioned stores, but it also includes dollars being spent in this fiscal year for next year's locations. We have, obviously, these large flagships where we're replacing, again, all of our flagship locations in Manhattan. All of those are opening next year, and we're starting to spend on them this year. That's why the dollars are elevated in this fiscal year.
I know I'm not supposed to, but I'm going to pile on. you know, I know we're not supposed to, but I just want to add-
Go ahead, Jen.
... because we are excited about the investments. You know, our square footage is growing at 15% this year. As Todd mentioned, it's heavily concentrated in the second half of the year. That's going to be 20% square footage growth in fiscal 2025. We'll expect to see, you know, momentum of the top line in 2025, as he's mentioned. These are the store boutiques. On those repositions and expansions in Manhattan, we do expect to see a 50%-100% more productivity in those stores. I think we have said on a previous call that they're more cost efficient than our current flagship.
We're super excited about these investments because we think that they're really going to pay off, particularly in the back half of the year, but even more so into fiscal 2025 and set us up for our top line growth and goals by fiscal 2027.
Heard and understood. Thank you.
The next question comes from Stephen MacLeod from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Thank you. Good evening, everyone. I was just wondering, you know, clearly like a bit of a pivot here with respect to building on infrastructure in the current fiscal year. I'm just curious if you're able to. Was there any precipitating factors? Were you seeing bottlenecks in your system, whether it's on the supply chain or distribution side or store operations side that sort of led you to, you know, to take the decision to sort of really focus on building up that infrastructure backbone?
It's not any one thing, Stephen. As we mentioned, our top line growth grew 160% in the last two years, in particular, the acceleration in the last fiscal year has been incredible. I sort of feel like, you know, if I can say it's like a head start on this year. If you just think about that growth overall and the business digesting it in all areas, we're just a much bigger business than we were two years ago, considerably bigger. With that, it takes scaling and getting economies of scale and, you know, some automation where automation makes sense. I think it's a factor of the tremendous growth that we've experienced in the last two years.
Certainly we have, you know, that distribution center, that cornerstone distribution center in Toronto can't open soon enough. We're really looking forward to that opening at the end of August. You know, these are just all things that we've lined up that will set us up for our next phase of growth.
Great. Okay. Yeah, no, that message is loud and clear. Great. And then maybe just on the inventory, you know, is it, is it still safe to assume that or safe to say that the inventory composition is still largely comprised of proven sellers? Secondly to that, once you get through inventory growth normalizing with sales by the end of Q2, do you expect it to sort of continue to be at that rate where your inventory is growing with sales as you roll through the balance of the year?
Yes, I think say that exactly, Stephen. That's what we're expecting today. I would say at most, growing with our revenue in the back half of the year. Then as we move into spring, summer, and the following seasons, as it has always done historically, it will move in lockstep with our revenue growth, you know, with some seasonal adjustments. As we're now, you know, with supply chains returning to normal, able to get back to, you know, our normal operating procedures as far as inventory goes.
That's great. Well, thank you.
The next question comes from Derek Dley from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Just on the price increases and the impact from inflation. I think you guys quantified the impact on the margins from the new DC and the new stores. You know, what is the impact from inflation? You know, I get it's the biggest bucket, but can you quantify it for us?
We haven't quantified it specifically, but it is not quite the majority of the 600 basis points. It's fairly material. I mean, there's obviously, you know, we have offsetting benefits from lower freight costs as well, but if you look at the 600 on its own, it wouldn't quite be a majority, but it is the largest by far, the inflationary pressure.
Okay. On... I guess a couple things on that. On the freight costs, are you guys still having to use the expedited freight, or just given what you saw in Q3, have supply chains, you know, eased enough where you're almost not using that or really close to not having to use that? Number two, just on that inflation number, is it mostly... is it product inflation? Is it inflation, you know, in other parts of the business? I'm just trying to get a better understanding of why that number is where it is.
Yeah. On the expedited freight, we always strategically use expedited freight as part of our supply chain process, you know, particularly in season for reorders. That won't change. It's just the amount that we're using it has moderated back to normal levels, which is, you know, meaningfully reduced from the elevated levels from the last couple of years. There is still expedited freight costs, but it's a lot lower. Then, as far as the inflationary pressures, product cost is a large one. We're seeing it really across the board.
I mean, you know, other larger components would be, you know, in our delivery costs, where we have inflation, fuel surcharges, etcetera, within those delivery costs, as well as labor, whether that's at the distribution center or within retail. You know, obviously our wages, as we've been describing, have gone up, which is directly related to inflation. You know, those are the large buckets that I would point out, but really, you know, it's across the board when you're looking at expenses.
Just one last one. You know, just given now that the U.S. contribution in terms of revenue is now the majority, of your revenue, and I'd expect this to increase over time. At what point does the appreciation of the U.S. dollar inflect to becoming a net benefit to Aritzia? I'd imagine you're pretty close to that level at this point.
Yes. We're not quite there yet. It's still. Obviously, it's a benefit to the top line right now. From a bottom-line perspective, it would still, the strengthening of the US dollar today or weakening of the Canadian is a slight drag on the bottom line. We are very close to the neutral point, and it would be somewhere in the high fifties mix. Once the US is in the sort of mid to high fifties, we're at that inflection point, anywhere beyond that, obviously it reverses.
Okay. Got it. That's really helpful. Thank you.
The next question comes from Martin Landry from Stifel GMP. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. I wanted to dig a little bit in your revenue guidance. You're guiding for 10%-14% for this year. I believe Todd, you mentioned that you expect momentum to accelerate perhaps in fiscal 2025. As I think you expect, you know, a square footage growth to maybe be a little higher in fiscal 2025. I was wondering, you know, your revenue guidance this year, is it a factor... Like, it's a bit of a deceleration from what we've seen in recent years.
I understand this may not have been sustainable, but I'm trying to figure out, have your stores reached a sales capacity limit at this point, and then you need, you know, your growth need may be more aligned with the square footage? Is that fair or?
No, I wouldn't put it that way. I mean, our current projection for this year, again, is based, as we said, off of the current trends for the year as well as the cadence of the boutique openings. Looking forward, you know, our revenue growth will be from our new store expansions, obviously, you know, eight to 10 new stores per year and three to four expansions and repositions. We're expecting, you know, I would say, you know, flat to modest growth in Canada from a comp perspective in retail. In the U.S., as we've said, you know, we do expect comparable sales growth in our retail stores to continue. Then eCommerce obviously, continuing to grow meaningfully. Those are the key drivers of our revenue growth going forward.
That has not changed in any way. It's really in this fiscal year, obviously, we're moderating from an extremely high growth rate over the last two years, the 160%, going from 857 million- 2.2 billion over the last two years. As you said, you know, that wasn't expected to continue. This year, we have the majority of our square footage in the store expansion concentrated in the back half, which as we said, will drive increased revenue growth primarily next year. As well, next year because of the flagship locations in Manhattan, as well as the other boutiques we're planning to open, we have 20% square footage, which is above...
You know, at the Investor Day, we communicated low double-digit square footage growth annually. The 20% is meaningfully above that, obviously close to double what a normal year in the outlook was expected. We expect meaningful growth acceleration in FY 25.
Okay. I'm just trying to understand, like, the timing of the acceleration in, in your revenue growth. I was wondering, are you seeing any changes right now in your customer patterns in terms of basket size, order frequency, average unit price? Anything that's changed since last year?
Yeah. I think I addressed this just in a previous question. Our top-line sales still is driven by the strength of our brand and the strength of our product. It's still resonating broadly with the customer. Specifically, we're not seeing any changes in baskets. They continue to hold up. Conversion rates remain solid. As I say, products are resonating with our clients. Certainly, we're controlling everything that we can deliver for our customers. We're not seeing anything changing.
Okay. Then maybe just lastly, are you surprised by that deceleration in revenue growth, or were you expecting that?
Yeah. As I said, we were expecting that it would moderate, you know, obviously coming off the growth we were seeing in the last two years.
Okay. Thank you.
The next question comes from Dylan Carden, from William Blair. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Just curious. I guess tell me if I'm wrong, but that part of the increase in the inventory was pulled forward or sort of more complete ordering of certain seasons. You know, historically, you've ordered 75% of the season. You know, now you're ordering, 100% or close to it. one, do I have that right? And two, did that impact in any way your capacity to kinda chase trends, react to trends? I know that sort of promotions are normalizing, but more on the, you know, read and react capabilities at these higher inventory levels. Does that hurt or hinder it at all?
No. With the 44% sales growth in Q4, I think we were more than comfortable with our ability to drive demand. No, it has not hurt that ability. You know, that's one of the reasons why it's taking time for it to moderate is because we're not... You know, we're still ordering what we need to drive our spring/summer today. Therefore, you know, that's extending the tail of that inventory and why we're not coming completely normalized until the end of Q2. No, we have ensured that we aren't impacting the business because, as we said again, it's heavily concentrated in proven sellers that, you know, we just are working our way through.
Got it. Last one, just on HQ hiring, you know, I know that you've done a lot recently, continued to benefit from everyone else shrinking. Where are you as far as sort of capacity needs at sort of the headquarters level?
Well, we invested in talent in our support office, particularly in the back half of the year last year. That is actually fueling a lot of these projects and a lot of the people that are aboard here are to help with these investment projects that we've mentioned on the call. Certainly, I think we still have pockets of areas. It's not across the board, but areas within support office where we still want to make sure that we are investing in talent, namely product and creative, digital technology, and certainly in the real estate area because of all of these exciting builds that we have going on.
Would you say, though, that the pace slows relative to sort of the back half of 2022, calendar 2022?
Yes. Certainly compared to last year, I would say yes. As you know, we're still investing. I think I mentioned, we're still investing in talent. We always have the long-term view of our business. We might have, you know, front-end loaded the back half of last year. We're excited about the long range plan, and we're committed to making sure that we execute on that long range plan, and we need top talent to do that.
Yep, understood. Thank you, guys.
The next question comes from Brian Morrison from TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Okay, thanks very much. I just want to reference fiscal 2025 for a second. It looks like you're building off this 12.5% margin for this year. You have a 16% target in fiscal 2025, and you're confident for 19% in the long term. You have this recovery of 400 basis points you're talking about. Why not 400 basis points plus scale from benefit from U.S. expansions and flagships and the investments that you're making? Are you being prudent or modest in terms of the timing of the investments to flow through?
Yeah, I would say, you know, all of those investments will require a ramp period. And we're in the case of the Manhattan locations, repositioning from existing into new and, you know, the old or the existing locations will have to come off before we see the full benefit of the new. And, you know, yes, I would say that there is some prudence baked into the 16, but that's why we're saying no less than 16%.
We should see some benefits from scale as we get into fiscal 2025, no?
Yeah, I think that's fair. Yes, 100%.
Okay. Todd, I guess with your updated guidance with respect to margins and CapEx, maybe you can just outline what your plan is for utilization of the NCIB this year.
Yeah. Well, given the heavy capital expenditures this fiscal year, we will at most be repurchasing to offset the exercising of options, but, you know, don't plan to be meaningfully active on the NCIB except to do that.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Alice Tuan from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. My question is very similar to Brian's question on how we can reconcile the EBITDA margin guidance. I know the efficiencies will take some time to ramp, but what are you attributing to some of the ongoing structural benefits from growth in e-com and increase in U.S. mix? Those weren't really talked about in the components of the margin back and forth. Can you elaborate a little bit on that? How much of that is a base case? How much of a base case is the 16% for us to build on?
Yeah. One thing I would just reiterate is that we've been operating in an environment of unprecedented growth and with, you know, a backdrop of, you know, COVID and supply chain issues and a very kind of muddy operating environment over the last couple of years as we've experienced that growth. That has made, I guess the underlying pressures somewhat difficult to manage. We have been, you know, working through that, and that's part of what you're seeing in the pressure on our EBITDA, you know, along with obviously inflation and what have you.
As I said, you know, we're very confident that we're going to work through with IMU improvements, cost efficiencies, and then the subsiding of those transitory cost pressures to get to 16% as a baseline for FY 2025 next year. That by FY 2027, bringing to bear, you know, other improvements along with the growth in the U.S. as a percent of our mix and the growth of eCommerce also as a percent of our mix. Those natural tailwinds to the margin will help elevate us to that 19% target by FY 2027.
Got it. It's really a FY 2025-2027 expectation for those tailwinds. Got it. One quick one is, what is the 53rd week contribution to sales and EPS that you guys are contemplating?
Yeah. It's roughly 150 basis points to the revenue growth.
Okay, thank you.
This concludes the question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Beth Dart for closing remarks.
Thanks again to everyone for joining us this afternoon. We're available after the call to answer your questions. We look forward to providing another update at the end of the next quarter.
This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.