Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Bombardier third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Please be advised that this call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the discussion over to Mr. Francis Richer de La Flèche, Vice President, FP&A, and Investor Relations for Bombardier. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Bombardier's earnings call for the third quarter ended September 30th, 2023. I wish to remind you that during the course of this call, we may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the financial performance of the corporation. There is a risk that actual events or results may differ materially from these statements. For additional information on forward-looking statements and underlying assumptions, please refer to the MD&A. I'm making this cautionary statement on behalf of each speaker on the call. With me today is our President and Chief Executive Officer, Éric Martel, and our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Bart Demosky, to review our operations and financial results for the third quarter of 2023. I would now like to turn over the discussion to Éric.
[Foreign language] Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I am pleased to share that Bombardier had an excellent third quarter, powered by exceptional performance on all fronts. The strong results we will review today demonstrate that our plan is working and continue to position us for sustainable and long-term success. These results also show the underlying strength and resilience of our business, as well our, as our ability to deliver on our commitment in any marketplace. Our aircraft consistently meet market demand and position us favorably around the world. Our services are growing with a solid and consistent CAGR. And finally, both our top and bottom line performance has grown year-over-year. I also want to highlight the incredible work our teams accomplished throughout the quarter.
We executed the plan and performed very well in a dynamic business environment, faced with geopolitical headwinds. Our rigor and focus have enabled us to record a remarkable revenue increase of CAD 401 million, or 28% year-over-year, and put a cash positive quarter on the board. Taking a step back, these results come after a series of consistent years of Bombardier that led to the company being ranked on the TSX 30. This prestigious recognition highlights the top 30 performing stock over a three-year period, ending June 30th, 2023. Over this time, our share price grew by 522%, while our market cap increased by 533%. This is quite an accomplishment.
While we know the share price has been more volatile under pressure over the past months, the TSX 30 ranking demonstrate that we have set the right foundation to deliver impressive returns. We are confident that our plan will drive long-term shareholder value. This is a testament to our team's hard work and especially the disciplined leadership from Bart and his group. Bart would go into the detail of this quarter results in a few minutes, but first, I would like to walk you through some key highlights. Profitability remains a priority of our team and continues on a positive trajectory. Our Adjusted EBITDA rose by an impressive 36% year-over-year. Consistent with the previous quarter, this double-digit growth is largely driven by improving operating margins, a higher contribution from our aftermarket business, and diligent cost management.
Our services team continue to play a key role as we execute on our commitments. They are driving significant and sustained revenue growth. In Q3, they recorded an 11% increase in revenue year- over- year. If you look at the last nine months, we increased revenue by nearly 16% when compared to the same period in 2022. After a rapid and successful expansion of our service center network in 2022, we are now focused on operationalizing and optimizing our facilities. As more business keeps coming through our new sites, our teams remain active on the recruitment side to ensure we have the workforce to bring more and more of our jets home. The aftermarket team also continue to put customer satisfaction at the forefront and is taking concrete actions to ensure we deliver an exceptional experience.
To that end, we recently launched a new Smart Services Elite program, the most comprehensive cost- per-fl ight- hours offering. Turning to the pre-owned market, our Certified Pre-Owned program keeps drawing attention by offering a premium product. With this program, Bombardier created a new segment within the market and an OEM-backed option for clients looking for a pre-owned jet. We meticulously update each of these planes and leverage the expertise of our service center to present our clients with a turnkey product. We presented a CPO aircraft to the North American market for the very first time at NBAA two weeks ago. The 2010 Challenger 300 we had on static display sported a new interior and fresh coat of paint, as well as the latest avionics and connectivity offering. It received a tremendous response from attendees and demonstrated once again the significant value of this program.
When it comes to new aircraft delivery, we also perform extremely well. With 31 recorded during the third quarter, we remain on track to deliver more than 133 aircraft in 2023. On this front, I want to highlight the efforts from our team and the plants as we ramp up deliveries to end of the year, all while expertly managing the move into our new Pearson Airport facility, without creating disruption to our deliveries this and next year. Overall, we have a good line of sight for the fourth quarter, and everything is in place to deliver greater than 56 aircraft, with some already behind us. Let me also acknowledge our supply chain organization, which has been instrumental in ensuring that we can meet our delivery objectives.
When you look at what is going on across the industry, you won't be surprised to hear me say that the supply chain continues to put a considerable amount of pressure on our operation. However, while the global supply chain base is still under the strain of various disruption and challenges, our team is very agile and is able to react to identify problems before they escalate. Thanks to their proactiveness, we have been very successful in mitigating challenges and keeping our delivery projection on track. Speaking of deliveries, our backlog remains solid at CAD 14.7 billion, which translate into a order book that is averaging 18-24 months. On top of this, our long-term skyline includes more than 200 order options from large operators.
We ended the quarter with a book-to-bill of 1.1, which provides us with the visibility and predictability required to look at the future with confidence. This is exactly where we said we would be, and I am happy with our consistency. We also benefit from a diversified customer mix, which of course, includes large fleet operator, corporation, and individuals, but also companies that are choosing Bombardier aircraft to expand their business and their fleet in a meaningful way. The most recent example is AB Jets, based in Phoenix, in Phoenix, who jointly celebrated the purchase of three Challenger 3500 jets with us in Las Vegas. This company is growing and has positioned itself well to capture demand from individual customers, as well as from large fleets, who sometimes require backup flight.
These jets will be transformational for them as they open the door to a larger market segment in the super mid-size space. Our defense division represents another key example of our diversified customer base. Over the last few weeks, a number of important international defense shows were held in the US and in Asia. Our Global 6500 aircraft garnered a lot of attention and was put forth as the platform of choice for a wide range of missions. In fact, it was reported that the Sierra Nevada Corporation was selected to provide surveillance aircraft that are based on the Global 6500.
This is the latest addition to a long list of programs that rely on our Global platform to complete defense missions, including the successful BACN platform operated by the U.S. Air Force, for which we also announced last week, the delivery of the seventh airplane. As you might have noticed, our platform are recognized around the world. Our defense division is striving and demonstrating its profound expertise and flexibility with many large-scale modern, as well as equipped armed force. With that said, overall, we see steady order activity in a normalized demand environment. Our Q4 order pipeline looks robust due to continued demand for our Challenger and Global jets. Our increased profitability has allowed us to record a cash flow positive quarter and to generate CAD 80 million.
This convincing result puts us on track to deliver on our full year guidance of greater than CAD 250 million in free cash flow for 2023. Our consistency in meeting our objective demonstrate that we have the right business model to deliver strong results and outperform well into the future in any marketplace. We continue to stay focused on delivery and business fundamentals, and with the talented and engaged team we have in place, I am confident that we will continue to meet and exceed expectations. Now, I'd like to invite Bart to share further information regarding our excellent performance over the last quarter and how it paves the way for success in meeting our full year guidance. Bart, the floor is yours.
Thank you, Éric, and good morning, everyone. It's absolutely great to be here with you today. I have to say, that was one heck of a quarter we just had. When I take a step back and look at what we accomplished, our business is firing on all cylinders. To emphasize this point, let me share with you a few of the key highlights. First, we grew our deliveries by 6 aircraft this quarter, when the entire industry has been struggling with an exceptionally difficult supply chain. Our revenues are up 28%. Our margins are up 100 basis points year-on-year. Our adjusted EBITDA is up 36%. Our adjusted EBIT is up 54%. Our year-to-date adjusted EPS is higher than last year by CAD 3.91.
Finally, our leverage is 25% improved versus last year and is now on the cusp of going below 4x, and we are generating Free Cash Flow. Any way I look at it, this company is completely different than when this management team stepped in 3 years ago, and it isn't by luck, it is by design. It is a testament to our continued focus on managing things that we control most. We are managing our costs, ramping up our aftermarket, and delivering growing aircraft margins. These actions ensure margin lift in all environments. For the full year, we remain on track to meet or beat all of our guided metrics, including aircraft deliveries. This will be the 3rd year in a row we expect to meet our delivery commitments. Supply chain is difficult, but we are not using it as an excuse for missing our commitments.
Looking at our balance sheet, available liquidity is strong at CAD 1.25 billion, and our adjusted net leverage continues to improve. At the end of Q3, we are down to 4.1x net debt to EBITDA. And what is even more impressive is that we anticipate to be below 4x by the end of the year as we deliver our full year guidance. Looking at our debt maturities, we continue to monitor markets for the right conditions and remain opportunistic in our deleveraging approach. We have around 18 months until our next debt maturity, which leaves us with ample time and flexibility to act in the most beneficial way for the company. Putting all these pieces together, Bombardier has made significant improvements to its fundamentals.
With higher and sustainable profitability, strong liquidity, and a materially delevered balance sheet, we have built a company that is able to perform in all business environments. Let me now turn to the financial highlights for our third quarter. Our revenues were up by an impressive 28% year-over-year, reaching CAD 1.9 billion versus CAD 1.5 billion last year. Our aircraft manufacturing and other revenues grew by CAD 364 million, or 34%. The result of six incremental deliveries versus a year ago, with a total of 31 aircraft delivered in Q3 of this year. On that note, I am very proud to say that at NBAA in Las Vegas last month, we celebrated the delivery of our 150th industry-defining Global 7500 aircraft.
Our aftermarket business also saw impressive growth as revenues increased by 11% year-over-year, reaching CAD 414 million. With the majority of our footprint expansion strategy completed and the ongoing operationalization of our facilities, we are aggressively focused on continuing to gain market share and grow the business at a high rate. Turning to our profitability, total adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was CAD 285 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.4% and an impressive 100 basis point margin expansion over the same quarter last year. Our adjusted EBITDA margin growth continues to be underpinned by improving aircraft margins, growing our aftermarket business, taking in the benefits of our cost reduction plan, and the diligent management of our cost structure in a higher inflationary environment.
Our adjusted EBIT totaled CAD 193 million, up 54% versus the same period of last year. Our adjusted net income has also significantly improved to a gain of CAD 80 million, versus a loss of CAD 2 million a year earlier, and our adjusted EPS came in at CAD 0.73 for the quarter, versus a CAD 0.10 loss in Q3 of last year. As I mentioned on previous calls, in 2023, we have reached profitability levels where we have become structurally net income generative, and we expect to see continued growth in these metrics in the future. Moving on to free cash flow, we generated CAD 80 million of cash in the quarter. Our cash conversion bridge is quite straightforward.
We delivered CAD 285 million of EBITDA, and from there we remove our cash interest cost of CAd 75 million, as well as CAD 99 million in CapEx, the majority of which was to support the completion of our new global assembly facility at Pearson Airport. Working capital was essentially neutral in the quarter, with additional inventory net of payables, build being offset by incremental advances. With only two months left in the year, we continue to expect our full-year performance to be in line with guidance. Deliveries are on track for greater than 138, and with 82 deliveries achieved to the end of Q3, we have a clear path to greater than 56 deliveries to go.
Our unchanged delivery outlook and excellent aftermarket performance continue to support the greater than CAD 7.6 billion in top line we expect for the year. So far this year, we have generated CAD 772 million of EBITDA, and we have a clear path to reach our 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance of greater than CAD 1.125 billion. On free cash flow, we continue to expect to generate greater than 250 million for the full year. This implies a fourth quarter cash flow generation of greater than CAD 639 million. Our cash usage over the past nine months was largely driven by inventory ramp-up, for which we expect to see a significant release in the fourth quarter as we deliver more than 56 aircraft.
So to conclude, Bombardier had a very strong performance in the third quarter, and our entire management team is focused on delivering on our full year commitments. Above the quarterly results, we are very happy with the progress we continue to make on growth and our balance sheet, and we believe that we are in an excellent position to continue to perform and bring value to our stakeholders. Thank you very much, and with that, I will turn it over to Francis to begin the Q&A. Francis?
Thanks, Bart. I'd like to remind you that Bombardier Investor Relations team is available following the call in the coming days to answer any questions you may have. For the question period, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. With that, we'll open it up for questions. Operator?
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your touchtone phone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request. If you would like to withdraw from the question queue, please press star followed by two. If you're using a speakerphone, you will need to lift the handset before pressing any keys. Please go ahead and press star one now if you have a question. Your first question will be from Tim James at TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question, returning to the aftermarket service business, very nice growth again, in the quarter. I'm wondering, Éric, if you could maybe talk about, the market growth versus the growth that Bombardier is driving, you know, specifics- specifically through new service center openings. Just trying to, trying to kind of disaggregate market share growth versus just the overall growth, in the industry and, and flying activity.
So, a great question, Tim. So, I think the growth we do observe right now comes from different form. I think first of all, we clearly, you know, have growth because we've added about 1 million sq ft last year, and we've been filling the capacity very nicely all across the board. But to your point also, we see growth in flying hours. So the growth in flying hours, of course, bring the airplane more often to our service center. So this has been a bit of a leading indicator of also for us. And you know, the reality is also our 5,000 aircraft out there are aging, too. So airplane, you know, a lot of the Global, a lot of the... This is one thing we were planning for.
A lot of the Globals or a lot of the Challenger are coming to midlife inspection or coming to ten-year inspection, which require quite a bit of maintenance. So I would say between our you know, of course, a bigger offering, if I may say it this way, plus the flying hours that we've been observing increasing over the last couple of years, the fleet aging, I think that we clearly foresee you know, that growth, and we're on target to meet you know, what we said we're going to do, for about CAD 2 billion or greater in 2025.
Great, thank you. Then if I could just follow up, the Global 7500, again, of course, cited as one of the drivers of your gross margin expansion. Could you just update us on where the company or that platform is specifically in terms of realizing full margin potential? You know, how much still lies ahead or perhaps maybe just more of a timeframe you're thinking about until that platform, those margins have really reached kind of, you know, full run rate, if I can call it that?
Yeah. Good morning, Tim. It's Bart here. So we've had, obviously, a tremendous margin growth on the 7500 platform, since we started delivering the first aircraft, a number of years ago. The early part of it was really based on unit cost reduction, which we achieved fully about 18 months ago, approximately. So we're now in pricing margin expansion. We are mostly through the launch aircraft pricing. We did have some strong aircraft sales back in 2019 and 2020. And prices have gone up a fair amount actually on the per unit basis since then. So we'll be delivering those aircraft in 2024 and even into a little bit in 2025.
So we expect by 2025 will be to full run rate, on margin on the, on the 7,500 platform.
Okay, great. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Okay. Thanks, Tim.
Next question will be from Walter Spracklin at RBC. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks very much.
Go ahead, Walter.
Yeah. Can you hear me now?
Yeah, we can hear you, Walter. Good morning.
Good morning. Yeah, I was wondering, great results, by the way. I was wondering if you could, perhaps, Éric, speak to the cadence of demand. I know that's been a- A big, a big, big question mark about out there for many as to whether you see any, any signs of weakening demand. I know your used aircraft delivery or used aircraft percent went up a little bit here, but do you think you can still maintain, as you go into a very strong fourth quarter here for deliveries, do you think you can maintain a book-to-bill that, that ends for the year at above 1, and, and sustainable into 2024?
Yeah. I think that, Walter, the short answer is definitely we see we have a line of sight for, you know, a book-to-bill of 1. The demand right now is very strong, still. You know, we remain positive and, and, and, you know, there's a lot of activity and quite around the globe, actually. You know, we have strong activity in North America. Europe, I was myself in Europe with the team a few weeks ago, and, quite impressive activity, you know, especially on the large platform in Europe and also in APAC, and even in the Middle East, despite what's going on right now. So I have to say that, you know, we're pleased with the demand.
You know, people are still considering, you know, to buy the jet, and we have quite a high level of activity as we speak.
Okay. And as my follow-up question, you know, Bart, you called it a heck of a quarter, and indeed it was. Just curious now that with the strength of the year to date in the third quarter here, whenever you have an annual guide in the third quarter, you effectively have a fourth quarter guide in place. And when I look at that, you know, your trends seem to be meaningfully coming in above that. Is there any... And I know you said meet or exceed, and I guess we're underlying the exceed here.
Is that the case, or is there anything that we should be aware of in the fourth quarter due to seasonality or any margin pressure that we should build into our models, that perhaps isn't there right now to temper some of the fourth quarter, given the full year guide that you have out there?
Yeah, Walter, good morning. Look, we're coming into a fourth quarter off of a strong third quarter, and we're expecting a strong fourth quarter. You know, we have a full lineup of deliveries. The team is performing at an exceptional level. We see clear line of sight to making our delivery guidance. And, as Éric highlighted just a moment ago, with the very strong pipeline of sales activity that we have, you know, we see a clear path to achieving a book-to-bill number better. That implies a lot of cash coming in. You know, it's a very strong quarter, typically, because we tend to have a lot of deliveries in the fourth quarter.
This quarter is even higher than some quarters in the past, and so that's setting us up very well to, as I said, meet or beat guides across the board.
Okay, that's fantastic. Congrats again on a great quarter. Thanks.
Thank you, Walter.
Thank you. Next question will be from Fadi Chamoun at BMO. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. And yes, congrats on good results here. But I want to ask about kind of the orders, kind of momentum going into Q4. I mean, it seems like you've been kinda in that high 20 orders a quarter for the last 9 months. I know there's seasonality typically going into the fourth quarter. But you know, we're looking for orders of about 50, I guess, in Q4. Is that normal seasonality? Are you expecting Q4 to be stronger than typical seasonality? And if so, what's driving that stronger? Like, is there a specific order that you feel kinda strong about to meet that kinda target for the year? So that's one.
Then, a follow-up is, like, when we look into your bridge into 150 deliveries, I guess, by 2025, how should we characterize that going into 2024? Do we kinda take a small step in 2024 into eventually 150 deliveries by 2025? Is the supply chain kinda organized in a way that helps you make that step up in 2024 and into 2025?
I think this is a great question. Good morning, Fadi. You know, clearly, we've seen, you know, our book-to-bill to be around one so far this year. There was a lot of deal that we've been working on, you know, and have been maturing towards the last couple of months. Right now they're all lining up in a sense that, you know, we've started to work on contract, we've started to, you know, have the real conversation with the customer to close this deal in the quarter. So we've seen a bit of a profile of the pipeline maturing, and it's happening in Q4. I'm not just talking about, you know, traditional customer, you know, but I'm talking also about some of the defense deal, could be fleet deal.
So, so there's a few things that are lining up to happen in Q4, and, you know, to be able to support, you know, our, our book-to-bill, and, still have a line of sight for a book-to-bill of one this year. So, so that's kind of what's happening. And, you know, when we look at the pipeline, there's quite a bit of things, you know, that we know will be happening into next year that are already being put forward, in this quarter. So, it's actually pretty encouraging. The level of activity is actually very good.
On the bridge to 2025 and kind of confidence in the supply chain to make a step up in 2024.
Yeah. No, absolutely. You know, as I've explained before, and I highlighted this morning, my team has done a tremendous job in you know proactively managing issues way before they hurt you know our assembly line. And again, I think, yes, we have some challenges. The team has been creative. I think when you look at you know what we're delivering today, we're still you know aligned to meet guidance for Q4. We pretty much have all our you know we pretty much have all our parts and everything already with us under the roof, as we like to say here, to be able to deliver the airplane. So it's pretty much all under our control right now.
When we look at, we already have visibility and working with our supply chain, especially engine OEM, for 2024 and 2025. So far we do anticipate the supply chain to be able to support the growth we have, and we still see clear line of sight again, also for our 2025 targets overall.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Next question will be from Cameron Doerksen at National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks, thanks very much. Good morning. Just a, I guess, a question around cash flow and working capital investment. Obviously, there's going to be the reversal of the inventory investment here in Q4. You know, I know it's still going to be too early to talk about 2024, but I'm just, you know, wondering if you can kind of just directionally talk about working capital investment needs as we move into next year. I mean, we're sort of at a production rate now that's, you know, a little more stable, but maybe incrementally higher the next couple of years. You know, what is, I guess, the investment that's going to be needed in inventory to kind of support that as we head into next year?
Yeah. Good morning, Cameron. Thanks for the question. And, you're right, you know, we did have a fairly large inventory build earlier on in the year, really over the full first nine months. With the strong delivery activity and pace of activity that we're going to have here in Q4, we're going to recover a lot of that, and so that's going to be driving a fair amount of incremental free cash flow in the quarter as well. So we're very positive on that.
As we look into next year, as you can imagine, when you've got a quarter like we're going to have in the fourth, where we've got so many deliveries, we will need to rebuild some inventory in the early part of next year. So that will have a bit of an impact on our results. So, you should anticipate that. As you said, it's a bit early for us to give you guidance, but directionally, that's how I would have you think about it in terms of modeling.
Okay. But as we sort of think about sort of structural levels of inventory, you know, there shouldn't be a significant increase, I guess, on a kind of a full year basis in 2024, maybe a modest increase. Is that how I should be thinking about it?
Well, there'll be... You should expect to see some increase for sure. We're rebuilding inventory, and as well, as Éric pointed out, we believe we're right on track with support from the supply chain and our own ambitions and the sales order activity we have to grow to our targeted levels of, you know, around 150 aircraft delivery. So, that would imply some inventory build to meet that higher delivery target, both in 2024 and 2025.
Okay. No, that's helpful. I'll leave it at one question. Thanks very much.
Okay. Thanks, Cameron.
Next question will be from Gavin Parsons at UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning.
Good morning, Gavin.
Yeah, I just wanted to ask on the, the backlog versus the unit book-to-bill. You know, I think historically that's been because you had so much visibility into the Global 7500. So I wanted to ask if you could share insight on how sold out that platform is and, you know, when you might expect to see orders refilling there so that the, the backlog continues to grow with the unit book-to-bill.
Yeah, you can go ahead. Sure, sure. Yeah. Thanks, Gavin. So, we're actually very pleased with our mix of backlog. You know, we've got 18-24 months of backlog across all platforms, including the 7500. So, we're in a good position when it comes to backlog. This past quarter, and if you look at where we're at on a backlog basis, on a dollar basis, we're really about flat from the beginning of the year till today, which is what you'd expect in an environment of a book-to-bill of around one. So that makes good sense. We did have very strong delivery activity on the 7500 platform in the last few years.
Last year and coming into this year, we had very strong sales activity as well, and that's why the backlog on the 7500 has stayed fairly stable. Q4 is shaping up based on pipeline, at least today, to be another strong quarter for the 7500 platform. So we're comfortable where we are and feel really good about the position on the backlog for that platform and all of our platforms.
... Great. And then, you know, without maybe asking you to opine on, on how your competitors are treating their supply chain, and any thoughts on, on why maybe you haven't been as, as impacted as some of your, your peers?
Yeah. Yeah, that's an interesting question, and, I'm glad you noticed. We're gonna be delivering our guidance for a second year in a row. You know, and I agree with you, I think, I can pretty much say most of the other OEM have reduced their guidance so far. But, you know what? I think I said it earlier, my team has done an amazing job. And, and I-- it goes back to, you know, I remember, summer and fall 2020, making probably a very different decision than most of the people in the supply chain by adding people in the supply chain instead of reducing the workforce.
Actually adding people that are out there in the field, working with, with our supplier, to make sure, you know, they have the people to do the work, and if they don't, then we were reacting. This actually translated in the last two years into us taking back some work or moving work elsewhere. We probably increased our population by taking work in by, more than, just about 500 in Montréal, another 700 in Mexico. So, so we took back some work in-house to make sure that our supply chain was reliable. We have people out there working with the major OEM, even, even at the tier two level, extremely proactively. So as I always like to say, the sooner you know about an issue, the more chance you have to be successful in fixing it and not, and not impacting your line.
I think we've been managing this way for the last three years, very early, you know, when the pandemic started to hit. I think today and last year, we've seen the benefit of that.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Next question will be from Benoit Poirier at Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, everyone, and congrats for the solid execution in the quarter, so. First question: any color on the ability to get financing for this jet operators in light of this higher interest rate environment?
Yeah, Benoit. So, couple of things. You mentioned the biz jet operators, but I would extend this to the actual purchasers of the aircraft as well, who are not in the fleet space. But we've seen no impact whatsoever in terms of fleet operators being able to raise capital, whether that be through equity, through cash flow generation, or through access to the debt markets. We continue to see very strong fleet activity. As Éric highlighted, we've announced a deal at NBAA just a few weeks ago. We've got a number of other deals in the pipeline, so we're seeing no slowdown there whatsoever.
In fact, it's, it's more of a growth story for the fleet operators, and we're very pleased to be partnering with them and helping support them. We did meet, as we always do, at NBAA, a few weeks back, with the various financing companies that participate in the business aviation space. All of them are seeing growth in their books. They're being very supportive of the industry. No, no signs of pulling back. In fact, to a group, they all said that they're deploying more capital into business aviation because it's been high performing for them. So, no, no negative impact. In fact, if anything, it's the opposite.
It's this business is attracting capital because financial institutions who support it are seeing it as a growth area.
If I may add, Benoit, good morning. It's Eric. I think, you know, just to build on what Bart just said, the fleet operator also, I think, are generating their own cash. You know, you've seen, you look at the flight hours, between 2019 and last year, they were up by about 45% for these guys. And again, in the last 12 months, when I look month-to-month, the fleet operator, I'm talking about the Bombardier airplane here, flying with the fleet operator, went up by another 15% in the last 12 months, which is significant growth. So, these guys are growing at a fast pace. They are flying a lot of airplanes for all the reasons we've explained before, and I think generating cash flow at the same time.
That's great color. And just for the follow-up question, if you could provide an update on the move from Downsview to Pearson, that would be great. Thanks.
Yeah. No, we're pleased things are moving forward. We don't expect, you know, any disruption of our operation. You know, the move has actually already started, so we have employee now working at Pearson. We had a lineup of trucks the other day, moving wings, moving, you know, fixtures and equipment. So this is on, this is happening as we speak. And, you know, so everything is lining up for us to be, you know, fully operational, you know, sometime in Q1.
That's great. Thanks for the time.
Thanks.
Thank you, Benoit.
Next question will be from Noah Poponak at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Hey, good morning.
Hey, guys. The stock is down 40% from its highs. It's a CAD 45 stock. You have guidance for 2025 free cash flow per share, that's somewhere around CAD 10. So, the stock doesn't believe something you're saying or doesn't believe something you're saying is sustainable. You know, I have a lot of questions in my inbox about the exact orders in the quarter, where they go from here. I guess you know, the orders are down, but they're down from a torrid pace. But you have plans to increase supply, and if you're increasing supply while orders are declining, you know, you can't do that forever.
So are we in a, you know, tricky macro such that you and you have a big backlog, so you can burn a little backlog, and then, you know, two, three years down the line, demand accelerates and links up with where you've taken supply? Or is there, or is there another way to think about that? I mean, I know it's a little bit of a strange question. I have a lot of questions on line items in the model but this seems like the biggest question, given what the stock is doing in the face of you beating numbers every quarter. So how would you take that on? What would you say to the market in response to that?
That's a great question. And, you know, I'm sure you realize I won't comment on the stock moving and everything. What I can tell you is everything we've said so far, we've been delivering on. I think, you know, we're still reiterating our guidance. We're talking about 2025. I understand where some people may come from, but I have to tell you, we are extremely disciplined here. And I'm not just trying to be opportunistic to say, "Oh, the growth was there. We built backlog." We are preserving the backlog we have, and that's our modus operandi right now. We like the 18- to 24-month window we have, and we will, you know, accordingly move rate, adjust rate if needed, you know, to preserve that backlog or, you know, depending on the order.
But the level of activity, and I think that one thing that we've said also that needs to be understood, when we restructured this company, we took a lot of time at the time to make sure that our company was gonna be resilient. And clearly, the demand is there, and the demand is important, I understand that, but we will be disciplined in keeping the flow. The global demand remains high, even in an environment where the economy could be struggling. We know that the global has been usually, you know, still pacing well. The same thing with our service business. So, when I talk about the global and service business, you're now talking about 75% of our revenue, roughly. So, it's an interesting model we've built.
That's why we grew our service business quite a bit. But we feel, you know, we have line of sight again next year, even 2025. We have quite a few airplanes sold already in 2025, and we're in a good place. So we see the demand. We'll do what we have to do. We are being very careful with managing our costs, but preserving the 18-24 months is key in this business, and that's what we'll do. That's what's going to dictate, you know, and will give us the discipline to make sure we don't, you know, build inventory and get wide tail and things like that. So that's not going to happen.
Okay. And Bart, can you put numbers on this working capital question? Like, how much, specifically in absolute millions of dollars are you assuming you recover in 4Q, or what's in the 250, what's in the 925? Just because, to your point, it is a simple bridge from the EBITDA to the free cash flow, and I can get to your numbers with that simple bridge, but the 4Q number is big. The ramp to 25 is big. We sort of are guessing on... or, you know, we don't know how linear 24 is, so I don't know if you'd be willing to just give us a range or some hard numbers around the working capital that's in each of those periods of time.
Yeah. Yeah. Good morning, Noah, and thanks for the question. We've tried to be as clear as we can around how, you know, timing at least and pace of working capital build and how that'll get released in the fourth quarter. But we don't, getting down to specifics is not something that we've talked about in the past. So what I will say is, you know, we did have some free cash flow usage, obviously, in the first nine months of the year, first six months, and cash intake coming into the business, CAD 80 million in the third quarter. We are set up for a very big quarter.
You know, when you talk about the number of deliveries that are going to be happening, you can just imagine that, compare that to deliveries over the first couple of quarters and the, the delta between those, you know, you're talking 20 aircraft more or 20-plus aircraft more. So that in and of itself, when you think in terms of number of aircraft, should help you understand, how much inventory, build we had versus how much we'll release. You know, we've got a lot of deliveries coming. The aftermarket continues to just fire on all cylinders and is growing. It's a very strong PDP quarter for us, so lots of cash coming in. And as well as Éric's highlighted and I've highlighted, we've got a great, a really strong pipeline on the new order side.
So that's really all I can say at this point in time, around that, but if you think of it in those 20 aircraft terms, that's about the strongest indicator I can provide you.
Okay. Is next year's free cash flow shaped by quarters similar to this year, or is it a little flatter? There's less growth in the total year, maybe supply chain's a little better, or is it the s- or is it the-
... We've got a couple of things that'll be helpful next year. RVGs, as you know, is something we're basically going to be done with this year. We've got one really tiny payment in 2025, but that was about a CAD 125 million headwind. So you can add that in. You know, think of it in terms of perhaps a little bit more, although I can't guide you right now, but directionally at least, a few higher deliveries. And we'll get back to you with some firm numbers on guidance early in the new year.
Okay. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Okay. Thank you, Noah.
Next question will be from Konark Gupta at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for squeezing me in. I echo my congratulations on, on a good quarter. Maybe my first question is on Q3, book-to-bill. So 1-to-1 on unit basis, on dollar basis, it looks like a tad below 1. Obviously, pricing on the jets are going up, across the board. But should we attribute this delta between unit and dollar book-to-bill to greater skew to Challenger jets in the quarter?
You know, that's an excellent question. And, yeah, actually, in terms of number of airplanes, we've got a positive book-to-bill. But, you know, overall, I, I would be careful. It's a product mix thing. You know, it may happen, we deliver a, you know, a few, we pick up order, deliver a few more Globals, pick up a few more, but it, it usually equalize during the year. If you look at our book-to-bill, not book-to-bill, but backlog since the end of last year, it's pretty much flat. So, but, I think overall, we're pleased where we want it to be. As I, as I like to, as I said earlier, we are preserving our backlog, which is what's important right now, and, you know, despite, you know, increasing deliveries.
So I think if you look across the board, we have, you know, a good story for deliveries in Q3. And actually, you know, we see the backlog being protected, but pretty much there, plus or minus, you know, a couple of maybe not even CAD 100 million. So it's been stable. The backlog has been stable since the beginning of the year, and that's what we're building the company on right now. To, you know, to try to preserve the backlog is how we're seeing that moving forward.
That's great. Got it. Thanks, Éric. And then follow up for Bart, maybe. Based on the guidance for this year, it looks like you will have a lot of excess liquidity by the end of this year. Presumably, you need obviously some liquidity right in first half next year for inventory buildup, but you should still have a lot of excess liquidity next year. Do you anticipate redeeming some more debt in 2024?
Yeah, great, great question, Konark. So, if you look at our, our goal, our longer term goals out to 2025, that we've highlighted and our, our objective to get to somewhere between 2 and 2.5 times, Net Debt to EBITDA, you know, that implies about, a billion dollars of, of debt reduction, from now until the end of that year. So, you know, where and when it will come, over the next, 24-26 months, I can't really say today, but, but Q4 does tend to be a very strong, cash flow quarter for us. That sets us up with strong liquidity at the beginning of the year.
And our strategy to date, and it's something that we'll expect to continue to use in the next couple of years as we fully repair the balance sheet, is to deploy cash into debt reduction when we have excess cash beyond our desired liquidity range, which, and that range being CAD 1 billion-CAD 1.5 billion. So none of those things are going to change. That's how we expect to. Those are the things we expect to use as our guides to when we'll deploy that cash. And as I say, based on our forecasts, that should allow us the opportunity to reduce about another CAD 1 billion over the next couple of years or so.
That's great to hear. I appreciate the time, as always. Thanks.
Okay. Thanks, Konark.
Operator, we'll have time for one last question, please.
Certainly. Questions will come from Miles Walton at Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning. Bart, you're starting down the path of the cash flow walk for 2024, so I figured I'd try and get you down further that path. I think you mentioned the RVG tailwind into next year. I think CapEx is a similar size, maybe CAD 75 million-CAD 100 million tailwind into next year, and then interest is probably another CAD 50 million tailwind into next year, and that's before considering growth in deliveries and earnings. Maybe you can give us the headwinds, because it just looks like, you know, 3-4 tailwinds.
The tailwinds that you just-- and good morning, Miles, by the way. Yeah, thanks for the question. The tailwinds that you described, those we do see as being helpful, in the coming year, really in the next couple of coming years. I wouldn't necessarily agree with all of your numbers, but certainly, those will be beneficial. In terms of headwind, you know, I see it more as an opportunity. As Éric highlighted, you know, we've been able to maintain our book-to-bill, and as well, maintain our backlog.... We've guided that, you know, we think we're gonna get to somewhere around 150 deliveries by 2025. At least directionally, that implies, potentially more deliveries next year.
Obviously, inventory to deliver those aircraft, et cetera, is a place we might use some cash. So, you know, when you balance those things out, could we see a continuation of positive free cash flow next year? That is certainly what we see, but we'll come out with more clear guidance here in the next few months.
Okay. Is most of the Pearson investment done this year, or does it continue into 2024?
Yeah, most of it's, most of it's done now, Miles. In fact, you know, we have video and pictures of the facility. Many of us have been there recently. It's, it's coming along very nicely, and as Éric said, you know, we expect to be, fully, into the facility in the first quarter. So we're, we're mostly through, through that CapEx now.
All right. Thanks so much.
Perfect. Thanks, Miles.
Thank you. Please proceed with closing remarks.
Okay. So thanks to you all for joining us today, and, as we said earlier, the fourth quarter is already well underway, as we discussed earlier, and we are progressing to meet all our 2023 objectives. Our team across the world are already hard at work to make sure that we successfully close 2023, and can look back with pride on a great year for Bombardier. Our priority remains our people, and I would therefore like to take this opportunity to thank our team members and highlight the exceptional work that they do every day. I look forward to reconnecting with you all in the new year, to discuss what 2025, 2024 will bring for Bombardier.
In the meantime, I wish you all a safe and enjoyable rest of the year. Thank you.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. At this time, we ask that you please disconnect your lines.