Thank you, Mirko, for coming here today.
Thanks, Barry. Thanks for having us.
So we're gonna continue on the same type of questioning. Your outlook for 2025, what is it, hoping to achieve in terms of input when it comes to pricing and loadings?
Yep.
So let's maybe talk about that because we heard from Rogers, they're kind of hoping to see 3% growth in subscribers in 2025. Is that something you can, you think, is achievable for Bell as well?
Yeah. So I'd say, I mean, I think it would be a fair estimate of growth, just overall in the industry, and I think that's not as high growth rate as we've seen in, you know, 2023 and 2024.
Yes.
But that's largely a function of, you know, federal government policies around newcomers to Canada. And so I think we have, particularly if you look at, you know, we're in Q1 of 2025, as everybody knows. And if you, you know, the impacts of the policy on newcomers really started being felt in Q3 and Q4 last year. So you can, you know, just go back, you'll see the declining kind of loading rates in Q3 and Q4 of 2024 compared to Q3 and Q4 of 2023. But that's because that's when it really started. And Q1 of 2024 is fairly robust growth, right? So you're going to see different growth rates in terms of loadings in Q1 of this year compared to last year 'cause last year at this time was still kind of high volumes.
So still.
Yeah. So I think kind of pretty fair. I wasn't here for that part of Rogers' presentation, but that would be, to the extent that that's what they said, I would kind of.
So far in Q1, is loadings within your general expectation?
Loadings would be within our general expectations for Q1, yes, because we very well knew based on Q3 and Q4 last year that the impacts of a reduction in newcomers was starting to be felt, and we obviously know that in Q1 last year we had, you know, across the industry, pretty robust loadings growth. Now, in our case, when you talk about the newcomers, the newcomer segment in particular, we've been gapped for far too long in that segment. So we have far less to lose from the sense of a decline. So we're still working to getting our fair share of the growth that's gonna come in. Now, newcomer growth is slowing down. There are still newcomers coming to Canada, and we are really focused on gaining our fair share there.
And we don't think we've had our fair share over too many years. So it's things like being really focused on customer segmentation. On newcomers, you know, a lot of newcomers want the premium brand. And we've, as I think most people know, we have been focused for a long time on premium brand loadings. And some newcomers have their device and are looking for a prepaid product. And we've been kind of far more focused on that and far better at it than in the past. And one of the signals of focus is, you know, Bell Mobility prepaid no longer being available and Virgin prepaid no longer being available. So there is a landing spot for that segment of newcomers or any, you know, prepaid segment. It's Lucky Mobile. And that's bearing fruit.
As loadings slow down, companies usually tend to rotate and try to focus on churn. But, unfortunately for the industry, churn is also a factor that has played against it last year with all the promotions that keep coming up. And like last week, it stopped today. But, you know, how should we think about churn, and how can you manage it down to improve the return on investment?
Okay. I think maybe now's a good time to just take a step back a little bit before answering this very specific, you know. We answered, you know, prepaid newcomer loadings question and now churn. Let me take a step back and whether or not you're or the approach we take generally. So whether or not you're managing through, you know, headwinds or you're benefiting from tailwinds, and it depends on, you know, what part in the cycle you are and which segment your business line you're talking about, whether or not you're managing through either headwinds or tailwinds, you need to have a clear strategy in place, and you need to execute with tremendous focus against that strategy, and hopefully, if you have the right strategy, it'll serve you well either, you know, through headwinds and tailwinds.
And that's why I've been, I've been making a point particularly recently on outlining consistently and with clarity what we're trying to do. We are trying to put, number one, put customers first. That's gonna relate to, to churn. Number two is we are really focused on the very best networks and services and best networks, not from our perception of what best networks should mean, you know, in a laboratory environment. It's like, what do customers want when they think of best networks? They want upload speeds, download speeds, security, reliability, resiliency, value for money. So those are the things we're gonna focus on. And of course, with us, there are three more pillars. There's a technology services, growth segment. There's the digital media and content growth segment.
Of course, there's transforming how we operate to make it easier to do business with Bell. That's the fifth one, the transformation agenda. If you think of the transformation agenda, think of the best networks pillar and putting customers first. If you get those working in unison, you will, you know, over time make some significant improvements in churn. Where does this come in? Of course, if you have the best networks from the customer's point of view, that's putting customers first, and they will choose you, and they will choose not to leave, and you'll over time get your churn down. Using kind of in the transformation agenda, particularly using tools like AI and GenAI, we can make some strides on churn. I'll give you one example.
Just directing the customer calling in to the right agent, the agent best equipped to handle that particular customer's concern. And you can predict that with far more accuracy than we ever could given the advancements in AI and GenAI. And of course, there's go-to-market approaches like, you know, using bundling effectively. So churn has gone up for a number of reasons, and it's the case across the entire industry. I don't like where our churn is at all. So it is an area of focus. Now, you know, taking a positive outlook for a moment, you've seen the rate of churn increase, you know, the rate of churn increase at Bell come down, over the last two quarters. And that's gonna continue to be the case 'cause we're really focused on it.
On pricing, we saw you exit 2024, with ARPU down around 3%.
Mm-hmm.
Let's call it a lot, you know. I get this question a lot from investors: how much of the cohorts that are still on high-priced plan, that old pricing plan, have still not converted to new pricing plans, you know, the front book and the back book type of scenario. And how much more leakage should we expect companies like Bell, TELUS, and Rogers to still go through before they recycle all their subscribers onto the new plans that are currently at lower prices than they were, let's say, two, three years ago? How much more should, you know, that is gonna still need to run through your system?
Yeah. So I mean, again, before I answer the question, take a step back just generally at a kind of macro point of view. So you've got volume growth. There's still growth in the industry, both in terms of population, newcomer penetration, but less than we've been accustomed to in the past. Pricing has come down dramatically in the industry, you know, over the last five years, whether or not you're looking at wireless or wireline and wireless, based on StatCan, you're looking at 40%-46% price reductions between 2019 and today, which is massive. So the industry has to deal with that as well. So we think it's about everybody to operate. And then we have, you know, we have a robust, very competitive fourth player, which is different than in 2020 or 2019.
And then you've got the, you know, macro shocks to the economy, particularly. You know, another example is this morning. So, you know, in that kind of broad context, everyone's gotta have to be kinda more comfortable with those factors. And that's gonna all lead to potential lower growth in loadings. And I think if everyone starts being more comfortable with that, industry operators first and foremost, regulators, analysts, shareholders in the room, I think that's step one. And in that context, it's if one, you know, if you're really trying in this environment to kinda win in an outsized manner, you know, the loadings growth or the loadings share or the net add share, it's just going to lead to a spiral.
So negative outcome.
That's gonna be very difficult to sustain and then continue to support value for money for the subscriber, continue to, you know, deliver returns for shareholders, continue to invest massively in networks. Not sure that's the right outcome ultimately. So I think now, you know, if we're in that environment where there's that general realization and you take a look and you say, okay, look, there are green shoots in pricing in the industry in Q1, particularly compared to last year.
Mm-hmm.
You're still able to, as a consumer, 'cause the consumer always comes first, you're still able to, you know, buy a 40 GB, 60 GB plan for CAD 34 or CAD 39 depending on where you're shopping and who you're shopping with, which is tremendous value for money given that we have the best networks in the world, particularly tremendous value for money if you compare it to just a short while ago. So I think you're seeing, all to say is you're seeing green shoots in pricing from an operator perspective, that's going to allow us to kinda better manage what you're actually getting at is how much in the back book is still left to be repriced.
You know, if you're repricing the back book at price levels that are CAD 3, CAD 4, CAD 5 higher than they were in Q1, you know, that's upside for the industry while continuing, still continuing to deliver kind of fairly low prices based compared to the quality that we're delivering to consumers. And what you're seeing now in the industry in terms of the ARPU declines in the past couple of quarters are really the impacts of pricing decisions made 18 months ago and 12 months ago that are working their way through the system. So as pricing stabilizes, I think kinda, and we go through this for the next two quarters, I think there's kinda, you know, gonna be improvements in either clearly there's improvements in ARPU declines, but there'll be, you know, stability soon enough and then slight growth.
All right. On internet, you've been making strides and gaining market share, both in Ontario and Quebec, but you've focused a lot recently more on Quebec, I think more than on Ontario in terms of the pricing strategy and how aggressive you go to market. But can you talk about what can drive additional market share gains and how much would you be satisfied to attain? I know you, you're never satisfied to enough, but you know, what would be a good 2-3 years market share that you'd like to achieve in Ontario and Quebec?
Okay, so I'll thank you for the question. I'll go back again to our key strategic pillars, right? You're putting customers first and you're offering the best networks and services and you're making it easier to do business with Bell through the transformation agenda, so you get those three right, the customer's going to choose you, and in the case of fiber, fiber is clearly the superior technology and customers have developed an awareness of that over the last four, five, six years, so customers are choosing fiber because, you know, by making the investments in fiber, we're putting customers first and then they're reciprocating by choosing Bell, and you know, the strides we've made on internet is because of that.
It's been the very acute focus on the strategy and the accelerated CapEx program, you know, since 2021. You know, customers are ultimately going to be the ones who decide. We've where we have fiber, our share is strong in most areas we operate in. In Quebec, we've lagged in terms of market share despite having made significant investments in fiber in Quebec. In fact, Quebec City was the first market in 2010. We've turned that around. We still don't have the same market share in Quebec that we do in the other provinces, but again, it's about, you know, we're in an environment now. You always have to kind of adjust, keep your strategy focused and consistent, adjust the tactics. You know, we're in a different environment today as I sit here than we were three years ago.
We're really going to put a focus on managing the loadings and the financials, 'cause I think that's kind of the environment we're in now and that's what I think shareholders will would expect of us, so we're still gonna deliver tremendous value for money across the country where we have fiber, including in Quebec, but we're gonna manage the loadings and the financials on fiber just like we're doing on wireless.
You've been vehemently opposed to the CRTC's push to open up fiber for wholesale wholesaling. I suppose this policy continues and we end up with a more open fiber-to-the-home wholesaling in Eastern Canada, how do you see Bell operating within that framework? And can you still manage to get enough return on investment that you already have made, within that kind of a framework?
I think.
I have to say, I have to tell you, we have folks from the CRTC in the audience today.
Yeah.
So.
I think answering that specific question in terms of, you know, what price can you generate a return, I think entering, you know, venturing down that path is just, frankly, it is a mistake. Because no matter what's the price you set, you can say it's a, you know, CAD 200, a wholesale price is gonna be CAD 200, then, you know, no one's gonna resell. You can make it, you know, CAD 5 and then the business case is shattered and there'll be no investment in Canada. All to say is there's no perfect person in here who can pick the perfect price because it's impossible to do. It's not that anyone is incompetent or incapable. It's literally impossible to do.
So you have to go take a step back and say, okay, what are the principles? What are the, you know, what's the right policy framework? And for 40 years, facilities-based competition has served Canada extremely well. In what other country do we have ubiquitous fiber competing against, you know, cable technology? In what other country do we have four players offering 5G and 5G + networks that are faster than practically any other country in the world? And in a country that's 40 million people, that's the second largest landmass in the world. Like, how is that not a success? Plus with prices that have plummeted by close to 50% in wireless and have gone down, you know, double digits in broadband.
You know, in this particular moment in time, shouldn't we be focused on more investment in Canada, particularly with what's happened, the announcement last night and what's going on, you know, this morning, which we don't know how long it will last? I mean, we have, sorry to do this, but the CEO of one of the competing banks had an article this morning, in one of the papers talking about we need to focus on financial capital and human capital in this country and financial capital being, let's get put money to work, you know, building pipelines, transporting energy, getting critical minerals on the ground, investing in AI.
He didn't put it in his article, but I would add like digital infrastructure is key to the prosperity of this country for years and years to come 'cause everything depends on wireless and wireline broadband. Why would we ever put that at risk? What do we want? Do we want, you know, broadband prices to go down from, you know, 18%-21%? Prices are gonna come down anyway through competition and through advance, you know, lower cost of technology. Do we need wireless pricing to go down from, you know, 46%? They need to be down 51%. Like who's gonna get this perfectly right? Fundamentally, if you put the right investment policies in place, good things will happen. It's been proven time and time again. There is no wholesale price that's gonna get it right, Barry.
All right. That's, that's a fair point. Ziply.
Yep.
So we saw a very big reaction from investors related to that transaction. Can you remind us why you made the decision to go to the U.S.? What is it that you think you can achieve there that you can't achieve in Canada? Is that how you're thinking about it? Or the decision to go to the U.S. is more where do I wanna put my next dollar investment?
Yeah. So I think over the last four months since the Ziply Fiber deal announcement, I think there's been a much better understanding across the board and across our investor basis to you know the merits of that transaction. So our priority is on closing that. And let's take a step back and why we made that very important strategic decision. So you know go back to putting customers first and best networks and services over those networks. You know we have turned ourselves into our fiber first company. It's fiber fiber fiber. In 2021 we clearly and consistently communicated and have since that we were going to you know invest more CapEx than we ever had before in the history of this 145-year-old company to build more fiber to more locations faster.
We said we were gonna do it from 2021 to 2025. We had a, you know, a 9 million home target at that time, which has shifted a little bit. Plus we have to adjust to the, you know, environment around us. But as we, you know, if you get to the tail end of now, if you get, so that's kind of the strategy. Now, if you get to why Ziply, you know, bring yourself back, I'll bring you back to kind of the tail end of 2023, early 2024, we were kind of clearly we were getting, we knew that we were getting to the, you know, that we were approaching 2025 and we were getting closer and closer and closer to reaching the build targets that we had outlined in 2021.
So we start asking ourselves, okay, if we're a fiber first company, does it end there? You know, where to next? And, you know, of course, you know, we wanna continue to build, ideally, in the right circumstances, you know, over time in Canada, but where to next as well? Where can we get the best return on capital for our shareholders? And as we did a scan, you look at the U.S., they have far less fiber availability in the U.S. than in Canada, far less, and lower cost to build and a regulatory environment that's conducive to investment. So when, you know, it really came down to, okay, wait a minute, you know, we wanna be a fiber first company. We wanna continue to expand fiber and generate significant returns for our shareholder.
We're getting close to the end of our target build in Canada. And then Ziply Fiber came along as an opportunity and it was kind of one of the companies that we identified with tremendous potential. And that's why we are doing it. We're doing it because we know fiber, we're really good at fiber. There's tremendous returns for that investment that are to come. The management team is outstanding. And if you look at those four markets, you know, the four states in the Pacific Northwest where Ziply Fiber operates, there are no fiber overbuilders. They operate, they compete against only one competitor wherever they are. And that's cable. 93% of the footprint has only one or fewer gigabit-capable competitors. 82% of Ziply Fiber subscribers are on fiber.
There's very little legacy copper overhang. It's a high population. Those are five. The population growth in those four states is higher than the national average in the U.S. The income growth is higher. The household income growth is higher than in the U.S. The GDP growth is higher than the rest of the U.S. Tremendous growth potential.
I was glad to hear you on the last conference call talk about bringing in outside capital to help you with expanding your footprint in the U.S. and fiber. It's one of my wish lists that I wrote to you in December. Is it fair to say that we should not expect Bell to make outsized large acquisition, additional acquisitions in the U.S. until you fulfill some of the initial investment objectives that you made in Ziply or you have in Ziply?
Yeah. So it's paramount, you know, for the management team to, of course, we gotta listen to our customers, gotta listen to our shareholders as well. And shareholders were asking for clarity on the strategy, clarity on the balance sheet management, and clarity on, you know, kind of related to both those two actually is clarity on what are the, you know, ambitions in the U.S. post the Ziply transaction, right? And so when we announced our Q4 results on February 6th, and I was really focused on laying out the roadmap so that there is, as much clarity as we can provide at this time on all those elements. So, you know, what are the pillars, the key pillars of the strategy, which I've outlined probably three times already in the 25 minutes we've been together.
So I won't go through them again. And then I also said we were gonna be focused on balance sheet, on managing the balance sheet and optimizing the cost of capital and ensuring that we maintain our investment grade rating. And then we outlined some of the things we're gonna do in that regard. And so, as it relates to Ziply Fiber in particular, it's okay, we are focused on closing it, which should be, you know, it's gonna be this year. And then we're focused on executing on the current management team's, you know, base plan over the next three, four years. In fact, with Bell partnering with the Ziply Fiber team, we think we can advance their build by year. They, by the end of this year, they'll have 1.5 million fiber lines. They have 400,000 more copper lines to convert to fiber.
That'll bring you to 1.9. And they have a growth plan in kind of the upcoming years to get to 3-3.3 million fiber lines in those four states. Then I said, okay, so that's gonna take some capital. We wanna manage the balance sheet. You know, if we can bring on third party capital to come with us on the journey to execute on that build plan, we should consider doing that. And there's been a lot of interest in working with us, which I think is a tremendous sign, a vote of confidence to the Ziply Fiber management team and a tremendous vote of confidence on BCE. That says that, you know, smart investors wanna work with Bell and believe in the value of the Ziply Fiber asset. We're exploring that now.
I think if we get something done, it will allow us to accelerate, you know, on that, to execute on the Ziply Fiber story, while managing our own balance sheet.
You mentioned also on the last conference call that your distribution ratio is somewhat out of whack, and needs to be addressed. What should we expect from BCE to do to adjust or improve your distribution ratio over time? Especially as the DRIP now is quite expensive with your dividend yield at 11%-11.5%. It's not as it was when you decided to put it in place in November.
Yep.
It was at 7%, the yield. So, how should we think about the distribution ratio?
It's on the free cash flow payout ratio.
Free cash flow payout ratio.
Yeah. So I'll give you. I'll start first with a medium- to long-term horizon, and I'll give you kind of the more immediate steps. So on a medium- to long-term horizon, of course, you know, the best way to get your payout ratio, your dividend payout ratio kind of under 100% and well within the payout policy over the medium to long term is you gotta continue to grow the franchise and so continue to execute on that strategy. And you know, there are those four pillars to drive top line growth and to drive EBITDA growth. And of course, you know, the transformation agenda that I keep talking about improves both the customer kind of experience and allows us to generate top line growth, but also really improves our cost structure.
So that's fundamentally the key levers: revenue, cost, EBITDA. And then the transformation agenda also allows us to be more efficient on our CapEx spend. And as we get closer to the end of the fiber build, particularly in Canada, that allows us to, you know, cut back on fiber investments. So now all those things put together, you're growing your free cash flow and all these, you know, over time you get it back in line, I mean. So that's the medium to longer term kind of approach. We can never lose focus on that. And then in the near term, it's things like, you know, non-core asset divestitures and using the proceeds to pay down debt.
Just overall, just managing. I'm just now going into a kind of other kind of balance sheet metrics, but it's really all about managing the balance sheet. And we're going to work on that. And I outlined what we're gonna do and what steps we're gonna take. And one of those steps is, you know, injecting potential third party capital in terms of the Ziply Fiber build. We're gonna, you know, look at divesting some non-core assets and using that to pay down debt. Now, of course, that gets to the leverage ratio, not the free cash flow payout ratio, but they're all important, right? Because we've heard from shareholders that, you know, how are you going to manage the balance sheet?
I'm taking a bit of a broader approach to the answer to your question.
But you can also tackle it head on.
Mm-hmm.
With a decision to breathe easier, I guess, if you decide to look at the dividend policy as well.
Yeah. And that's what I've said on that, and it's a good question. I know it's the one question I get asked a lot, and the answer remains consistent. It's, you know, we don't like where the share price is now. We don't like the yield. So we are going to do a number of things, particularly focus on the strategy, manage the balance sheet, and on the dividend question very specifically. You know, the board will continue to assess the dividend as a function of the macroeconomic environment, the regulatory environment, the execution against the strategy.
Okay. I know it's a board decision.
Yeah.
But I encourage the board to look into it more. I think investors will.
Hey, it says zero, zero, zero.
We'll leave it there then.
All right.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.