Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Ballard Power Systems Q4 and full year 2020 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To join the question queue, you may press Star, then one on your telephone keypad. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Guy McAree, Director of investor relations. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Ballard's fourth quarter and full year 20 financial and operating results conference call. With us today on the call, we've got Randy MacEwen, our President and CEO, and Tony Guglielmin, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll be making forward-looking statements that are based on management's current expectations, beliefs, and assumptions concerning future events. Actual results could be materially different. Please refer to our most recent annual information form and other public filings for our complete disclaimer and related information. Today, Randy is going to provide his perspective on Ballard's progress throughout 2020, as well as our focus for the current year. Tony is then going to review Q4 and full year financials, followed by a Q&A session. I'll turn the call over to Randy.
Thanks, Guy. Welcome everyone to today's conference call. I'd like to start today's call by thanking all of the members of Ballard's global team. I'm immensely proud of how our team responded to the global pandemic. We were guided by our purpose to deliver fuel cell power for sustainable planet and by our cultural values. In every decision we made, we put the safety, health, and well-being of our employees, customers, and partners first, and we demonstrated once again Ballard's resilience and ability to adapt with both care and speed. I want to provide a brief summary of Q4 and full year 2020 results. Ballard revenue was CAD 28.6 million in the final quarter of the year, with total 2020 revenue of CAD 103.9 million, consistent with our internal projections with the impact of COVID-19.
Full year 2020 gross margin was 20%, adjusted EBITDA was negative CAD 38.9 million, year-end cash reserves were CAD 763.4 million, we ended the year with a 12-month order book for delivery in 2021 of CAD 83.5 million. While Ballard's operations continued uninterrupted through the year, some customers, suppliers, partners, and end users were forced to shut down temporarily at points during the year, some also deferred capital expenditures. While our sales pipeline was very robust, growing 55% in 2020, reflecting the continued increase in market interest, order flow was muted. Looking forward to 2021, the impact of the pandemic continues to be uncertain. As a result, consistent with our practice in the early stage of market development and adoption, we're not providing specific financial guidance for 2021.
What I do want to share with you is how excited and confident I am about our business, about the important work we're undertaking in 2021 and our long-term future. Customer engagement in all of our medium and heavy-duty motive market segments, bus, truck, rail, and marine, are at record levels. We're well positioned with technology, products, field experience, customer relationships, partners, brand, and financial strength. As reviewed in our September investor and analyst day, we have a clear strategy and deliverables in 2021, including on technology innovation, product cost reduction, capacity expansion, our Weichai Ballard JV, and our relationship with MAHLE. The company's never been in a stronger position than right now at this very moment. We're tackling big problems, the decarbonization of mobility in large, attractive, addressable markets, bus, truck, rail, and marine. We're making solid progress in each of these market segments.
I believe we'll exit 2021 with a growing sales pipeline and order book that will start our ramp for scaling, with a steepening growth curve between 2024 and 2030. Importantly, we have a strong cash position. During Q1 2021, we completed a further equity transaction that added incremental net proceeds of approximately CAD 528 million to our cash balance, which currently exceeds CAD 1.2 billion. This positions us to aggressively pursue our two themes, acceleration and expansion. These two themes cut across three specific areas for planned deployment of our capital. The first is product innovation that will help accelerate market adoption by leveraging next-generation stacks and modules for bus, truck, rail, and marine applications, including expanding the range of power product levels available in our portfolio and continued cost reduction.
The second area involves investments in the expansion of production capacity and localization. We're currently finalizing the expansion of MEA production capacity at our Vancouver facility, and we have established gigawatt production capacity in China through our joint venture with Weichai. We're now carefully considering further localization opportunities in China, as well as the potential to deepen our manufacturing presence in Europe. Finally, we plan to invest in M&A. We have a growing pipeline of corporate development activities. Our focus is on opportunities that help to simplify the customer experience by reducing adoption friction points and reducing costs. We also see M&A as a path to more fully participate in the secular growth of the hydrogen economy and continue strengthening our competitive position in the market. At the macro level, the pandemic appears to have strengthened global resolve to confront the climate crisis.
Indeed, the decarbonization agenda has gained remarkable momentum in the past year. There are now close to 50 countries with carbon pricing initiatives and 75 countries with net zero carbon emission targets. Notably, the growing importance of hydrogen in the future energy mix continues to be signified by supportive policy measures around the world. There are now 32 countries, representing over 70% of global GDP, that have announced hydrogen roadmaps. The CEO-led Hydrogen Council, after being launched by only 13 founding members in 2017, now has 109 member companies. The group has escalated its advocacy work to raise the profile of hydrogen. A growing number of sizable corporate investments, joint ventures, collaborations, and green hydrogen projects are being announced seemingly almost daily in our industry.
Now, in California, transit agencies began filing zero-emission bus rollout plans as required by CARB's Innovative Clean Transit program. In 2020, CARB introduced its landmark Advanced Clean Truck regulations that mandate the scaled adoption of zero-emission commercial trucks in that state. In addition, 14 other states signaled their support in 2020 through an MOU, supporting a target for 30% of new truck purchases being zero emission by 2030. In China, the government updated its fuel cell policy in September last year, which we expect to have a significant impact on commercial activity going forward. I'll comment further on this in a moment. In 2020, BloombergNEF projected that clean hydrogen could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 34% over the coming decades at a manageable cost.
Its report concluded that renewable hydrogen could be produced for as little as $1.6 per kilogram in most parts of the world before 2050, making it a highly competitive fuel globally, with falling hydrogen costs enabling fuel cell market penetration along the way. During 2020, we made considerable progress in the execution of our growth strategy while working to transparently provide stakeholders with insights into our business, including strategy and current market position. We shared details on our 6 times increase in MEA production capacity, module assembly capacity in our Vancouver facility, in addition to commissioning our joint venture facility in China. We shared our planned reduction in fuel cell stack and module product costs by more than 70% by 2024.
We also detailed the estimated CAD 130 billion annual market for engine sales into the bus, truck, rail, and marine segments by 2030, which represents a multi-billion-dollar revenue opportunity for Ballard. During our Investor and Analyst Day 2020 last September, we also emphasized the significance of ESG reporting and Ballard's commitment to it, including the issuance of our first ESG report with the company's 2019 annual report in April last year, and our second ESG report that will accompany the 2020 report later this month. We're excited with our goal to achieve net carbon zero at Ballard by 2030, as well as our continued work on diversity and inclusion. I'd like to briefly review specific commercial developments in key geographies during 2020, beginning with China. As we previously shared, the Weichai Ballard joint venture is now operational.
During 2020, the facility construction and commissioning activity was completed to enable bipolar plate production, stack production, along with module assembly. Furthermore, Ballard products manufactured the JV, passed a series of quality audits so that the joint venture is now a qualified supplier to a number of bus and truck OEMs in China, including OEMs within the Weichai Group. China's state government has set a target of 20% of all vehicle sales being new energy vehicles by 2025, growing to 50% by 2035. In parallel, the government is targeting the fuel cell electric vehicle deployments reaching 1 million in the 2030-2035 time frame. In support of these targets, China's government updated its fuel cell policy last September with a focus on a number of hydrogen demonstration clusters.
Numerous applications for demonstration region status were submitted to the national government. We anticipate the selection of initial demonstration clusters to be announced soon. We expect this announcement to help unlock considerable pent-up demand for FCEVs as the market slowed over the past year, awaiting regulatory clarity. I recently returned from an important six-week trip to China. What I can report at this time is that the Weichai Ballard joint venture operation is very impressive. We believe this is now the largest fuel cell production facility focused on the bus and commercial truck markets. Supported by our Ballard team, our JV team has done an exceptional job with our infrastructure and with production capabilities, including optimizing production equipment and processes over the past six months. We're now seeing production yield metrics at the JV already similar to yield results in Vancouver.
The JV has also made important progress on localizing a significant portion of the bill of materials of our new joint venture modules. We expect this work will translate to exciting cost reductions at the module level. In addition to meetings with Chairman Tan of Weichai and important strategic initiatives to further strengthen our business in China, I also had the opportunity to meet with key government officials and policy influencers, as well as new vendors emerging on the supply chain side. I also saw many fuel cell buses and trucks on the road while I was in China, and with Ballard technology inside. I also rode the world's first operating fuel cell tram line with five CRRC trams powered by Ballard engines, which started operation more than one year ago.
At the current time, Ballard products are inside approximately 1,100 buses and 2,200 trucks in China, representing a market share of about 45%. Ballard has an industry-leading 70 million cumulative kilometers of on-road vehicle experience that Ballard has achieved to date. Ballard was also very active in Europe last year and into 2021. In 2020, we announced a key strategic collaboration with MAHLE, a major Tier one supplier to the transportation industry, for the development and industrialization of advanced fuel cell engines to power various classes of trucks, initially classes 6-8 in Europe. MAHLE's expertise in powertrain design and mechanics, together with Ballard's fuel cell technology and know-how, creates a formidable partnership to address requirements of a zero-emission, heavy-duty truck market in Europe.
We are currently working with MAHLE on design of a prototype 240 kW engine for the heavy duty commercial truck market, which we expect to have ready for testing by the end of this year. In Europe's bus market through 2020 and to this point in 2021, we've received orders for a cumulative total of 135 modules under the JIVE funding program, including 65 modules with Wrightbus for buses to be deployed in a number of UK cities, 60 modules from Solaris for buses to be deployed in the Netherlands, Germany and Sweden, and 10 modules for Van Hool, for buses to be deployed in the Netherlands. In 2020, we delivered 29 of these 135 modules.
I would note in summary, that Ballard's share of the fuel cell modules for all buses deployed in order to date under the JIVE programme now exceeds 85%. In the train segment in Europe, our work with Siemens Mobility on development of a 200 kW fuel cell engine for the Mireo Plus H train is on track, and we understand that Siemens is now quoting this train to its customers. In addition, earlier this year, we announced an order from Arcola Energy in the U.K. to power its passenger train, which is planned for demonstration during COP26 in Glasgow. In Europe's marine segment, we launched our FCwave 200 kW modular engine last year, and our Marine Center of Excellence is now in operation at Ballard Europe's facility in Denmark.
Finally, in the backup power segment last year, we announced the sale of our initial 500 air-cooled FCgen 1020 fuel cell stacks to AdKor and FC Energy, with a potential for up to 1,500 stacks in systems at radio tower sites in Germany. We also announced a collaboration agreement with Eltek Nordic for backup power solutions focused on countries such as Norway, Denmark and Iceland. In North America, early this year, we announced an MOU with Chart Industries for joint development of an integrated system solution that includes a fuel cell engine with onboard liquid hydrogen storage and vaporization.
The ability to equip vehicles with a liquid hydrogen supply, whether it be in a bus, truck, train, or marine vessel, will address very long-haul use cases, since liquid hydrogen provides two to 3 x the energy by volume as compared to compressed hydrogen. Earlier this week, we jointly announced with Canadian Pacific that Ballard will be supplying 1.2 megawatts of fuel cell product for CP's pioneering hydrogen locomotive program to power the first-ever fuel cell-powered line-haul freight train. CP, with its fleet of 1,300 locomotives, has made a strong commitment to sustainability, including a vision that includes sustainable freight transportation. Once the fuel cell freight train is operational, CP plans to conduct rail service trials and qualification testing to evaluate the technology's readiness for the freight rail sector.
This exciting program with a major North American transcontinental railway will expand our work in the rail segments from trams in China and passenger trains in Europe to freight trains in North America. In addition to these activities in our key geographic markets, we've been experiencing increased customer interest in other geographic markets, for example, in Australia, New Zealand and India. In Australia last year, we signed an MOU as a consortium partner to establish the H2OzBus Project for the evaluation and deployment of fuel cell electric buses for use in public transit in that country. FCEVs offer an excellent option for public transit in Australia's challenging conditions, and green hydrogen from renewable energy will offer a flexible, scalable, and low-carbon fueling solution at bus depots.
In Australia earlier this year, Ballard signed an MOU with Global Energy Ventures to design a multi-megawatt power solution for its C-H2 Ship, a tanker-sized marine vessel that will store and transport hydrogen from Australia to other parts of the globe, consistent with Australia's ambition to become a net supplier of hydrogen to the world. 2020 was a critical year in the hydrogen and fuel cell industry, and here at Ballard, while meeting operating challenges posed by the pandemic, we made significant progress on critical strategic initiatives to position the business for growth over the years to come. We have a range of zero-emission mobility opportunities that we believe present large, attractive market opportunities for Ballard's technology and products over the long run. With a strengthened balance sheet, we're increasing our investments in 2021 to seize these opportunities.
In 2021, we'll increase our investment in talent, competencies, technology innovation, product development, and customer experience related to our core markets of bus, truck, rail, and marine. We'll continue to invest in our strategic partnerships with Weichai in China and MAHLE in Europe. We'll also consider investments in further production capacity and localization in key geographies, as well as strategic partnerships and acquisitions. Before finishing, I'd like to address the CFO transition at Ballard. As you would have seen in yesterday's press release, Paul Dobson will be joining the company as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective March 29th. Paul has 25 years of global financial operations and leadership experience, including as CFO and interim CEO at Hydro One, and as CFO at Direct Energy. His skills and experience will serve Ballard well as we seek to scale our business over the coming decade.
At the same time, Tony Guglielmin will be staying on in an advisory role until May 31st, supporting the smooth transition of this role. On a personal note, I want to thank and acknowledge Tony as he moves into retirement. He served in the CFO role at Ballard for over 10 years, delivering significant value to the company, including through his professional leadership of our finance and administration functions, his important strategic contributions, and his leadership on numerous corporate and finance transactions. Everyone here at Ballard wishes Tony well in his retirement. With that, I'll turn the floor over to Tony to briefly review the financials.
Well, thanks, Randy, and good morning, everyone. Top-line revenue in Q4 was $28.6 million, down 32% year-over-year. On a full year basis, revenue was $103.9 million, down 2% from 2019. For the full year, Power Products revenue increased 19%, while Technology Solutions revenue decreased 20%. Within Power Products, full year heavy-duty motive was up 35% to $47.7 million. This was due to a year-over-year increase in product shipments to customers, particularly sales to the Weichai Ballard JV and the Synergy Ballard JV in China. We also saw higher shipments of backup power products to customers in Europe.
The decrease in Technology Solutions revenue to $45.3 million was due primarily to decreased amounts earned from the TS program with Audi, the Siemens Development Program, and the Weichai Ballard joint venture technology transfer program. Gross margin was 20% for the quarter and for the full year, declines of 1 point in each time period. The Q4 and full year declines were the result of the decrease in total revenue and a shift in overall product mix. Cash operating cost increased 25% in Q4 to $16.4 million, and for the full year, increased 29%, or $11.2 million to $50 million. This was primarily the result of higher research and product development costs in next generation MEAs, stacks, and modules.
We do expect higher cash operating costs again in 2021 as we increase our investment in additional technology and product innovation and the development across our key product markets of bus, truck, rail, and marine. Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 was negative $14.5 million, compared to negative $7 million in the same quarter the prior year, and negative $38.9 million for the full year, compared to negative $26.6 million. For the full year, this included Ballard's $12.6 million share of losses in joint venture investments in China, largely related to the Weichai Ballard JV.
Ballard's net loss in Q4 was negative $14.4 million, compared to negative $9.8 million in Q4 last year, and for the full year, negative $49.5 million, compared to negative $35.3 million in 2019. Earnings per share was negative $0.05 in Q4, compared to negative $0.04 in 2019, and for the full year, EPS was negative $0.20, compared to negative $0.15 for the prior year. Both the net loss and EPS numbers include the Ballard share of losses from our China JVs. Cash used by operating activities was $6.7 million in Q4, consisting of cash operating losses of $6.7 million and flat working capital changes. For the full year, cash used in operating activities was $42.9 million.
consisting of cash operating losses of CAD 25.8 million and working capital outflows of CAD 17.1 million. In terms of liquidity, we ended 2020 with cash reserves of CAD 763.4 million, up 417% from CAD 147.8 million at the end of 2019, and up 111%, or CAD 401.7 million from the end of Q3. These cash reserves reflected three equity transactions in 2020 that generated total net proceeds of approximately CAD 695 million. These included two at-the-market, or ATM, programs that generated net proceeds of CAD 309 million, as well as a bought deal transaction that closed in Q4 and generated net proceeds of CAD 386 million.
In addition, as Randy noted, we completed a further bought deal transaction in the first quarter this year, generating additional net proceeds of approximately CAD 528 million. In addition to areas where we expect to deploy capital in 2021, as outlined earlier by Randy, we also have a commitment to contribute CAD 11.4 million in 2021 toward our 49% ownership position in the Weichai Ballard JV. At the end of 2021, we expect to have contributed a cumulative of CAD 69.1 million towards our total capital commitment of CAD 79.5 million for our pro rata ownership share. Finally, we ended 2020 with a total order backlog of CAD 117.8 million, a decrease of CAD 10.3 million over the order backlog at the end of Q3. The 12-month order book at the end of 2020 was CAD 83.5 million, up CAD 9 million from the end of Q3.
As Randy noted, we have a robust sales pipeline of qualified commercial opportunities, up 55% from the end of the prior year. Before I turn the call back to the operator for questions, I did want to say a couple of words about my pending retirement. This will be my last investor call as CFO of Ballard. I first wanted to thank in acknowledgment, and many of you on the call today, whom I've come to know and work with over the past 11 years. It's been a pleasure to get to know you, and I do hope we can stay in touch. I also retire with confidence, knowing Ballard's future is in good hands with a strong executive team and a dedicated workforce, as well as a very strong balance sheet.
Lastly, I'll look forward to working with Paul on a smooth transition over the coming weeks. With that, let me turn the call back over to the operator for questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To join the question queue, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. We will pause for a moment as callers join the queue. The first question comes from Sameer Joshi with H.C. Wainwright. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Randy. Thanks, Tony, for taking my call. Tony, congratulations on the, and good wishes for the, retirement.
Thank you, Sameer.
My first question is about the China JV and revenue contributions from that. At what level of revenue contributions from China do you see your equity distribution also break even? This year, I think you had over CAD 13 million of equity distribution losses from that JV. How should we look at 2021? Should we expect that contribution to be a positive contribution this year?
Hi, Sameer, this is Tony. you're right. The equity contribution, you know, was negative in 2020, and we expect it to be negative as well in 2021. you know, as Randy mentioned, you know, we're expecting a, you know, a fairly significant ramp-up in deliveries from the China JV, but they'll likely take place more in the second half of the year, once the policy framework gets finalized. we don't expect 2021 to be a break-even year for the joint venture, largely as a result of the delay in the China policy.
I think realistically, we're looking more into 2022, that we would expect to start to see, you know, the JV getting closer to break even based on, you know, continued ramp-up. 2021 will continue to be negative, a negative contribution. Not quite at the same level as 2021, but it'll continue to be negative.
Understood. Thanks for that. You just mentioned the order backlog as of December 31st, I assume, was around CAD 118 million, which was down around CAD 10 million year-over-year. How does that compare, contrast with the strong sales pipeline? Are there delays in order conversion, or what's the reasons for the drop in that backlog?
Yeah, Sameer, thanks for the question. We have seen this very significant increase in customer interest, really across the board. If you look at our sales pipeline, up 55%, you know, a very significant portion of that comes from the medium and heavy-duty motive markets of bus, truck, rail, and marine, and relatively speaking, a very good diversification across the markets as well as across the geographic markets, too. You know, as I pointed out, in 2020, we did see a number of customers defer capital expenditures and not signing orders, as a result, in some cases of COVID-19. You know, a lot of organizations were reducing their CapEx budgets to monitor cash flow, as you'd expect.
I do think that had a fairly significant impact, but I think as we look forward, what we see is the sales pipeline, significant part of that, we would hope to convert into orders in 2021 and 2022. It is important to remember that lots of times, the sales pipeline takes time from, you know, the time we receive interest, translate that through the sales force, different grades we have in the pipeline, ultimately to order book, because they're, you know, it's a long sales cycle for these markets. I think you'll see some very good movement in 2021 and into 2022 as well.
Understood. One last one before I step back in queue. You listed a bunch of investments in various plant acquisition and upgrades. What is the budget for these investments, and is it mostly going to be operational or operating expenses, or are there any capital expenses associated with this investment as well?
Yeah, certainly on the product innovation side, that I referred to, you know, that would be in the operating budget. In terms of production capacity, expansion, and localization, there could be additional CapEx spend as we look to deepen our manufacturing presence in China and Europe, for example. No dollar amounts, specifically, that we can share today. As we look at M&A, of course, that would be investment of cash, and potentially stock as well for potential transactions.
Got it. Thanks a lot for taking my questions.
Sure.
The next question comes from Rupert Merer with National Bank. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, and once again, congratulations on your retirement, Tony. All the best.
Thank you, Rupert.
I'd like to start with the expectations for R&D this year. Can you talk about what we may see in R&D expenditures? If you can give some color on the activities you're going to focus on this year and maybe expected deliverables you could see this year from the R&D program.
Hi, Rupert, Tony here. The R&D, the total budget, from like looking at 2020 over 2021, we do expect to increase our investment in the OpEx area, which is Randy was, you know, mentioned a moment ago. It's probably gonna be up, you know, $20 million+ this year-over-year. It is a fairly significant increase, and this will kind of flow through our cash OpEx and reported OpEx. That investment, is across a number of programs. Certainly the work that we're doing on next-generation, high-power density, modules, focused particularly on the truck market, that's one particular area. We're also launching some next-generation, you know, MEAs and stacks this year.
It's across a range of power levels and across MEA stacks and modules, as I say, with a focus particularly on the truck market. As I say, think about a, you know, potentially CAD 20 million plus increase in our investment in the cash OpEx area this year.
Include your activities with, MAHLE?
Well, that would include some of the development work, yes, with MAHLE. That doesn't include any specific investment in, you know, if you're thinking about or, as you know, it's been discussed earlier about, you know, any localization or joint venture, that's all to come. Yes, this would include the development work on this heavy-duty, around the truck program that Randy alluded to in his remarks. Yes.
On your Investor Day, you talked about a three-year goal to reduce your cost by 70%. Is it fair to assume that, you know, your R&D expenditures this year are in programs that are going to be over the next three years, and maybe we shouldn't expect too many deliverables in the 12-month timeframe?
When you look at a couple of things, when you look at the MEAs and plate work that we're doing, we saw some very good progress last year. In fact, our product cost reduction in 2020 was higher than our plan. The actual realized cost reduction was higher than planned for at the stack level in 2020. When you look at the investments in 2021, there will be developments that are crystallized and we'll be able to share in 2021. You know, a significant portion of the additional spend, incremental spend, is really around acceleration and also around expansion of the product portfolio with different power ranges.
Remember, now, we're focused on bus, truck, rail, and marine, so each of these markets, in some cases, have different market requirements. Really trying to address the unique market requirements at the module level, while continuing to drive standardization at the MEA plate and stack level. There will be announcements this year on product improvements, on cost reduction at the stack level and at the module level. You're right, some of the more earlier stage R&D activities do take, you know, cross over into multiple years. Certainly with the 3-by-3 plan, a cost reduction for 70% cost reduction over that into 2024 timeframe, there are clear timelines and deliverables in each year, and I'm very confident about the progress we're making against that.
Okay, great. Thanks for the color. Secondly, just a quick follow-up on China. Your disclosures highlighted you still have some optimization work to do at the Weichai Ballard JV on the production side. Just wondering if you can give some more color on what activities you have left in China.
Yeah. The key areas for optimization are really around yields on plate assembly. You know, the production of plates, we just in December and into January, have now achieved yield results that are consistent with what we're seeing in Vancouver. There are some pieces of equipment that some suppliers are making some small changes to, that should even help that further. I actually believe we'll have higher yield from the Weichai Ballard JV than we'll see here in Vancouver in the coming months. That's very encouraging. These are minor adjustments we're talking about here, nothing major in terms of time or spend. It's really about fine-tuning.
You know, I think the more important really deliverable is the unlocking of that market to get the policy framework clear, so order flow can be released and production can scale.
It sounds like you have some time for optimization while you're waiting for those policies to come through. I'll leave it there. Thank you very much.
Yeah. Thanks, Rupert. One thing I'd note, too, is that, you know, looking at our own yield results and in Vancouver over the last number of years, where we have the higher production runs, higher volume production runs, yield results are higher. We're looking forward to seeing that occur in the JV as well.
Great. Thank you.
The next question comes from Pearce Hammond with Simmons Energy. Please go ahead. Pearce Hammond, you're line is live.
Sorry, I was on mute. Congrats on your 2020 accomplishments, Tony, all the best in your retirement.
Okay. Thank you.
In the earnings release, it seemed very clear that you could expand your geographic focus beyond your three core areas of China, California, and Europe this year. You know, what markets are you looking at? What are some of the criteria for entering those markets? Does it have to do with subsidies and market structure? Then lastly, you know, would this be entering with a new JV partner or an existing partner? Thank you.
Yeah, Pearce, thanks for that. We are looking at a couple of new geographic markets. I commented on some progress that we've already made, for example, in Australia, where we're seeing progress in New Zealand. I think you'll see something on that fairly soon. India is a market that we're seeing very strong interest coming out of the hydrogen fuel cell space at this point. As we kind of look at markets, we think about, you know, what's the policy framework and support in those markets? What's the size of the addressable market, particularly for bus, truck, rail, and marine? What's the competitive dynamics and how are we positioned in those markets? Those are a couple of things that we would look at.
Whether we say enter those markets, whether we do that independently or with partners, every market is different. India is a very unique market, that's a market I think we certainly would look at a collaboration there. But other markets like Australia, New Zealand, very easy for us to, you know, set up an office with sales and support capabilities and service capabilities in those markets as well.
Okay.
It's Tony, Pearce, just to supplement, too, I think, just to Randy's comment, too, I think what we're also starting to see as well is the demand pull from some of our customers in some of the newer markets that we're looking at. Many of these customers are global by nature. We'll end up being, looking at new markets, you know, for, you know, such things like, you know, the mining and marine, which are truly international markets. I think we may find ourselves following some newer customer opportunities around the world because of where the customers are located as well.
That's great. Thank you for that color. My follow-up is, you've talked a little bit about some of the initiatives on fuel cell cost reductions and that you've talked about, but is there any specific, like, technical or scientific advancements that you'd want to highlight today that's helping reduce fuel cell cost?
I think we went through this fairly significantly during the September Investor and Analyst Day, where we looked at different operating, you know, different technical parameters that we're looking at today, tomorrow, and even a number of years from now. Things like current density, power density, operating temperature, you know, free start capabilities, the different parameters that we currently have, and what those targets will look like as we move out in time. You know, a lot of activity underway, a lot of exciting work that's been done in 2020. As an illustrative example, you know, the ability for us to have thinner plates to help improve power density was a pretty significant development for us in 2020.
The ability to have new materials, in some cases, thinner materials or lower cost materials or materials with higher performance. There's a lot of work that needs to be done, in many cases, actually working collaboratively with the supply chain to help them with their specifications in order to improve their material set.
Excellent. Thank you for taking my questions.
Sure, thanks.
The next question comes from Michael Glen with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, and, congratulations, Tony, on the retirement.
Thanks.
Just, you know, just to start with, Randy, you do seem to be speaking more favorably or optimistically, say, for this China roadmap. I'm just wondering if there's anything in particular driving that? As we see that information come out, are there particular aspects of that roadmap that you'll be looking to see?
Yeah, I think there are a couple important developments. Even in December, you know, China released a policy document that really goes to what they call encouraged industry. You know, the fuel cell industry has now been designated as an encouraged industry, which really means that they're supporting the localization in China of international companies, and those companies, in theory, should be treated very similarly to domestic players. You can do that without having, you know, a JV controlled by a Chinese partner. As we think about, you know, opportunities for continued value chain expansion in China, that's a very encouraging development for us. The other thing is just having spent six weeks in China, you get to see firsthand the momentum in that marketplace.
While we clearly had a stall out in China over the last year because of the policy landscape. That hasn't changed the enthusiasm and excitement and the number of companies that are now entering as potential supply chain partners. That to me was very encouraging because we're seeing, you know, let me just use Catalyst as an illustrative example, a number of new catalyst companies that are looking to move into this space, and are, you know, working with now collaboratively to help them, you know, design the appropriate catalysts that can dramatically improve performance and lower cost. There's a lot of work going on in the supply chain that is very compelling.
Actually seeing vehicles on the road, which you don't see anywhere else in the world in any scale at all, visiting, I think I was in 10 different cities, and probably five cities I was in, I actually saw vehicles on the road. This is, you know, very compelling. There's a lot of activity going on. You know, got to meet with many politicians and policymakers at very senior levels, and I have a very high conviction level on, you know, the growth we're gonna see in the China market, and a very high conviction level on the role that Weichai Ballard will play going forward.
Okay. Just, any, like, specific aspects that you're particularly looking for as that roadmap comes into form? Is there certain aspects that you are hoping will be contained in that?
Well, I think, you know, there probably won't be any surprises, in my opinion, in terms of the next phase. The question will be which demonstrations are awarded initially. I think there's probably an understanding at this stage that at least three regions will be included. We expect that to be Shanghai, Guangdong, and Beijing. You know, those are the three regions where you're seeing a lot of support. In fact, Shanghai just recently issued another policy document supporting the deployment in scale of fuel cell vehicles. I think that's a very attractive marketplace. There are other policy frameworks that will be announced, I believe, in 2021, beyond this cluster demonstration that's being financed through the Ministry of Finance.
I think you'll see other developments coming out of the Ministry of Science and Technology, for example, that will support deployment of fuel cell vehicles, in a very substantive way.
Okay. Just in terms of the recent meetings that you had with your JV partner, like, have they given you any insights into how they view the ramp, how they expect the ramp to take place in terms of volume? Just in terms of something you mentioned last year on a conference call, did you happen to have the discussion with them about a potential IPO of the Weichai Ballard JV?
We discussed both while I was there. You know, there's a lot of interest right now in the China market for fuel cell and hydrogen companies coming to market. In fact, there's a company currently going through the IPO process, REFIRE. Shanghai Reinventing Fire Technology Company Limited is currently going through the IPO process in China. That's a very good test case, you know, we're studying that case with a lot of interest, of course. Yes, I would say there's an alignment of interest and view on long term, looking at the opportunity to IPO the vehicle. You know, when to do that and what the right circumstances are will be, you know, things we'll continue to discuss.
On the production ramp, you know, we have a couple of different scenarios for 2021 and 2022, depending on when and how the policy framework gets clarified. Hopefully, that will be soon. You know, Congress is meeting currently in Beijing right now. There are expectations that coming out of Congress, there should be more clarity on this. When the policy gets announced is, you know, difficult to know for certain. But if that gets announced soon, I think that will add more, more certainty, and then we can trigger one of our, you know, different scenario plans that we have at the JV.
Okay, that's great. Thanks for taking the questions.
Yep, thank you.
The next question comes from Aaron MacNeil with TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, all. Paul is here on the line or listening, congrats on the new role. Tony, I'll join everybody else and congratulate you again on your retirement.
Thank you.
Rand, you referenced it in your prepared remarks, but based on the press release activity in Q1, it seems like the cadence and the magnitude of order flow has increased. Would you characterize this as sort of a lumpy, you know, group of announcements just based on pent-up demand due to COVID? Or can we view this kind of pick up in the first quarter as something more sustainable and indicative of some of the broader secular trends as it relates to fuel cell commercialization?
Yeah, I think the history of the industry has been, you know, lumpy announcements and very project-based work, right? I think you're right, that we've seen here recently, an increase in cadence, and I think rather the importance of some of the announcements as well, and the indicators that some of those projects could lead to longer term volumes as well. You know, when you're meeting with the counterparties right now, you know, I just recently met with CP, for example, as, and, you know, got to hear directly from them their vision on, you know, decarbonizing locomotives. You know, just the passion and the interest that the counterparties have today is really quite different than you would have seen two or three years ago.
You know, I think that's reflective of at the board level, these are important issues. You know, ESG investing is really driving a lot of this as well, in my opinion, across a number of different markets. I think the commitment level to decarbonize is much stronger, and the understanding of the role that hydrogen can play to decarbonize is also much stronger. You know, I'd like to hope that this is an indicator of what will happen going forward, but I think history has taught me not to be so bullish about that quite yet.
I do think that the sales pipeline, rather than the announcement order, the sales pipeline, to me, is a stronger indicator of where the business is headed than, necessarily the timing and lumpiness of press releases.
Understood. I know this has kind of been brought up already as well, but can you say how your backlog is broken down in terms of, you know, fuel cell sales and then the technology solutions piece? Are those different sort of buckets moving in different directions right now? Like, can you give us any sense of kind of how, what that looks like in more detail?
I think actually, in my mind, the sales pipeline is probably a better indicator of where the trends are as compared to the order book. If you look at the sales pipeline, it's interesting, a couple of years ago, we targeted trying to have diversification of effectively 40% from China/APAC, 40% from Europe, and 20% from, I'll call it North America or rest of world. If you look at the sales pipeline, that's the, you know, relative geographic split is very similar to that target we had set some years ago. Of course, we're seeing a very heavy weighting.
As you would expect, you know, bus, truck, rail, and marine, we characterize those four markets in that order because we believe that's the sequence of adoption for those markets: bus, truck, rail, and marine. We have what we call the scaffolding effect, whereas the bus market, you know, we'll start to see penetration and scaling, you know, then the commercial truck market will add on top of that. As the bus and commercial truck market both scale, the rail market will add on top of that and sequentially with marine. What's been surprising to me is the rail and marine market, I think will surprise to the upside. We're seeing a lot of interest in those two markets.
You know, that's showing up in the sales pipeline and customer engagement, that isn't even reflected in the sales pipeline. I think for us, progress in 2021 on the commercial truck market is critically important. We're very pleased with the positioning we have in this market in China. You know, the fuel cell policy in China is weighted towards commercial trucks. If you look at the, you know, the number of vehicles with and platforms that have Ballard technology certified in that market, as well as the Weichai positioning in the truck market in China, that's very encouraging. You know, the progress we'll make with MAHLE in 2021 on the commercial truck market is critically important. Of course, there are other activities that we have that aren't disclosed yet.
I think the sales pipeline is probably a better way to think about it than the order book, and that relative geographic split, as well as a fairly heavy weighting on the four applications: bus, truck, rail, and marine, and a really good diversification among those markets is showing up.
Understood. Maybe I'll just close up with a bit of an oddball question, but, you know, one of your competitors has essentially given away warrants to its customers in order to incentivize spending. For obvious reasons, this is, it's a, you know, a double-edged sword. As it relates to Ballard, are you worried that investors may not be familiar with those details? Of how your, that customer engages with, you know, major customers, and how the your backlog versus their backlog may differ? Are you worried, you know, that this model will make that competitor a bit stickier with large potential customers or future customers, just given a, you know, a growing and fairly high-profile reference base at work?
Yeah, I mean, for us, we're just gonna focus on technology, innovation, product improvement, you know, great customer experience, and make sure we're positioned well in the markets. You know, I'm not gonna second guess what that company did. You know, they're doing very well in the forklift material handling market. You know, they've got a very entrenched position, and, you know, kudos to them.
Okay, great. That's all for me. I'll turn it over.
The next question comes from Gregory Wasikowski with Webber Research. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just wanted to go off a point you just made, Randy, in seeing an acceleration in the marine market. I'm just curious, can you give us an update on the project that you have going with ABB? Secondly, just, you know, as from the marine market as a whole, can you give us your thoughts on, you know, a timeline that we could see an acceleration for larger capacity hydrogen carriers, as well as the potential for hydrogen being used as a propulsion for longer haul tankers, cruise ships, and container ships? You know, it's obviously in the future, but your updated thoughts there would be great.
Yeah, the focus in 2021 is to actually get the Type Approval for our FCwave product. It's a 200 kW modular product. This will be the first fuel cell product that I'm aware of, that will have Type Approval, which means it's specifically designed to meet the rigorous marine requirements. We've seen a lot of interest from customers and now have, I think close to 15 orders in the marine market, so it's very compelling the uptake we've had already. These, of course, are all demonstration projects, right? It's very early stage. These customers want to sample these products, trial them, pilot them, and then move, like we did in the bus market, from trials to larger opportunities.
You know, that's the timeline that we're on right now. In terms of ABB is a giant in the marine segment. We're very pleased with the relationship we have with them, and a number of these projects we have, ABB is involved. You know, continue to look for opportunities to expand that relationship, and work together. In terms of, you know, propulsive power for larger vessels, in my opinion, this is many, many years away. You know, we need to have a compelling hydrogen storage solution. Costs need to come down as well on the product side. You know, we need to have reliabilities at much higher intervals than we do today.
If you look at reliability today, for example, in 2020, during COVID-19, which was a challenging period, we had uptime or availability rates for vehicles in the field of about 97%. You know, what we'd like to see that is we're gonna continue to see that number improve. Where we've had any issues in the field, typically it's been some of the balance of plant components, things like compressors and hydrogen recirculation blowers. What we see is that the new suppliers, companies like MAHLE, that are entering into the market and looking at developing new balance of plant components with higher reliability and lower cost, are gonna help address these markets, where reliability requirements need to be higher, and we are talking about longer extended, range requirements.
I think those markets are a ways away. I'm very encouraged by the work that Chart's doing on looking at, you know, looking at liquid hydrogen and vaporization. A very talented company with a lot of innovation and very aggressive on the M&A and strategic collaboration front. I think they'll be a key player in this market as well.
Great. That's really helpful. Thank you. Along those lines, just talking about the Global Energy Ventures MOU, it seems like Asia Pacific is at least the initial focus there. Specifically to China, I'm wondering what kind of appetite you've seen from China and, you know, understanding that that still could be very much policy dependent, but, is it something that you could ultimately facilitate or even, you know, promote given your presence there?
Yeah, great question. I'm gonna suggest probably 10 different meetings I was at, you know, during that six-week period, where people raised the opportunity to collaborate with Ballard in the marine market. You know, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, have a number of marine vessels of all different kinds, with decarbonization challenges. I believe China will be a very attractive market for the marine segment, and it's an area of activity for us going forward.
Awesome. Sounds good. All right. That's all I got. Tony Guglielmin, wish you well in your retirement.
Thanks, Greg.
The next question comes from Rob Brown with Lake Street Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning.
Good morning.
Quick, I have a question on capacity additions. I think, you know, you said you're doing a 6x capacity expansion in Vancouver. What does that give you in terms of revenue capacity, and then, maybe what you're thinking on adding capacity in Europe, in particular, in terms of timeline?
Yeah. Russ, Tony, the 6x capacity expansion we've discussed is for MEA capacity here in Vancouver. And we see that MEA that capacity investment taking us out through to about 2025, roughly, before we have to increase capacity again. I won't put a revenue target, a revenue number on it, 'cause obviously, a lot of those MEAs are going into our product and including some shipments to China. Think about, you know, capacity through the mid part of the decade. You know, look beyond that, we're kind of focused and not just focused on MEAs. The incremental cost to increase capacity again in MEAs is relatively modest.
You know, we're talking CAD 10 million-CAD 20 million to increase capacity of a like magnitude on MEAs. Of course, you know, whether we think, you know, longer term about MEA localization in other markets. The bigger question, I think, or the bigger capital question is more on capacity for stacks and modules. China, of course, we're well situated with the joint venture to satisfy that market. With regard to our capacity on stacks and modules in out of Vancouver, you know, we're certainly capacitized for the next couple of years, but I think That's an area that we are looking at, that we've talked in the past, and one of our potential programs is localization of capacity in Europe as an area of consideration for stacks and modules.
I think it's safe to say between now and 2025, we will need to make some additional investment in stack and module capacity, ex-China, which is fine. And that, you know, the order of magnitude on that, you know, to replicate a facility to do that, you know, could be in the CAD 100 million range for a stack and module assembly facility, maybe a little higher. But that's kind of how we think about capacity over the next 5 years.
Okay, great. Thank you for that color. Specifically in MAHLE, I think you talked about some product development milestones next year. Could we see customer project activity in 2021, or would that be thereafter?
Well, we're certainly involved in customer discussions already with MAHLE and end customers, users, OEMs. Don't know what announcements we. You know, the timeframe for our announcements, I think to be more cautious, we'd probably say 2022, because the product will be effectively unveiled in 2021. A lot of important work going on to get the product optimized for truck platforms, as well as with the right balance of plant components for higher reliability and lower cost.
Okay, thank you. I'll turn it over and best wishes. I'll add my best wishes to Tony and his return.
Great. Thanks. Thanks so much.
Thanks, Rob.
Thanks, Rob.
The next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citi. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi, good morning. you know, looks like some of your orders, Randy, were slow to come in 4Q due to COVID. Do you think they were pushed into 1Q? You know, you recently won, an order of 50 buses from Wrightbus and then, more orders from Van Hool. You know, does that put you ahead of schedule in 1Q from where you thought you were? I guess related to that, you know, for all these buses in Europe, who is supplying hydrogen fueling and hydrogen fueling stations for this? Are you limited by how quickly that hydrogen infrastructure builds up?
Let me take the, first of all, the questions on the order book. You know, I do think we should expect to be cautious still here. COVID-19 is not finished yet, obviously. I think, you know, in terms of order inflow, we should be cautious for the next couple of quarters still. I think I'm very encouraged by what I've seen, and I'm even more encouraged by the robust sales pipeline of very qualified commercial opportunities we have. In terms of supply of hydrogen at fueling stations and, you know, are we limited by fueling stations? I think it's important to remember, we focus on these use cases where you have centralized depot refueling and don't need to have a distributed refueling infrastructure.
That's an important point to understand, and many of the end users are already used to having a diesel refueling station at their site, and so, their operation isn't disrupted. All they're doing effectively is replacing a diesel refueling station with a hydrogen refueling station. In terms of who's actually typically supplying that, there are a number of different companies that have been doing that: Linde, Air Liquide, Air Products, the industrial gas giants. You have companies like Shell and BP that have been active in that market as well. You have some additional players, companies like Ryze in the U.K., that are supplying hydrogen for bus and other applications. A number of different players.
I think what's encouraging, is that there's a universal conviction that the cost of delivered hydrogen will go down, circa 70%, over the next decade.
Great. Thank you for that color. I guess my next question is, you know, you're really good at making MEAs and fuel FC stacks. The, you know, that's the same technology for electrolyzers. Would you potentially consider getting into electrolyzer production in the future, and that will give you some hydrogen capability as well to be a bit more vertically integrated?
A very good point. To clarify, not only are we good at MEAs and plates and stacks, we're also good at modules as well. Yes, you're right, there is some overlap because electrolysis and fuel cell technology are effectively reverse processes and do use some of the same materials, like membranes, like catalysts, like gas diffusion layers, for example. There's a lot of merit to your commentary. We are not looking at developing electrolysis greenfield in-house. you know, we would consider strategic collaboration and M&A opportunities on the electrolysis side, but we aren't looking to set that up internally on a standalone basis.
Thank you very much.
Great. Thank you.
The next question comes from Craig Irwin with Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Congratulations on all the commercial progress lately. I just wanna dig a little deeper on Aaron's order flow and Greg's maritime questions. If I'm understanding it correctly, the Canadian Pacific freight train and the Global Energy Ventures hydrogen carrier opportunities are like step changes from what you laid out in your September Analyst Day 2030 TAM outlook because of the multifold increase in unit kilowatt requirements. If these initial demonstrations work out, how material can those markets become, and how soon do you think we'll know if those demonstration projects are working out?
Great question. I think as we look at these markets, there's no doubt in my mind these markets will be decarbonized. Then you say, okay, how can the rail market be decarbonized? I'll just use locomotives in North America as an illustrative example. It's something like under 1% of locomotive rail is electrified in North America. You have two options. You can go with overhead catenary wire, which is very expensive, or you can look at hydrogen. Those are, in my opinion, the only two viable options for decarbonizing mobility, you know, rail mobility in North America for freight.
I think the market opportunity is compelling, and if you look at markets where I think the price of CO2, will, you know, CO2 pricing and costs will increase over time, that could be quite additive to the model as well. I think from a, you know, a market adoption perspective and a sequencing perspective, you should think about these pilot projects, roughly taking a couple of years, two to three years. What I would suggest is you will see likely, you know, the CP locomotive demonstrated in 2021. Then you'll see, you know, over a two-year period, that trial and results from that trial.
What we've seen is that, you know, from our experience from the bus market, is that, you know, once users get comfortable with the technology, comfortable with the safety protocols, and comfortable with, you know, working with new technology from an operator perspective, like bus drivers or rail operators, you know, usually they're very excited about it. I think this is a both these markets, we characterized the size of those markets during the September conference call. I think we were very conservative in that characterization, and what I've seen, even since September, suggests to me those numbers are probably fairly muted.
Great. Thank you for that. Digging deeper into the fuel cell truck market, it seems more than the others we just talked about, that the competition is just simply heating up. You know, Westport recently announced a hydrogen combustion engine, you know, effort. Plug is working with Renault, Daimler and Cummins recently announced a link-up. Can you elaborate on your MAHLE relationship and what you view as your competitive positioning in the pending hydrogen fuel truck marketplace?
You, I think you, that's a fair observation. We are seeing, of course, many players rush to this market. Why? Because it's an attractive addressable market that fuel cells are uniquely positioned to address. Yeah, we are seeing an increased competitive landscape, validates, you know, our thesis for some time on the attractiveness of this market. What I think is important, very important to understand, is that Ballard has already proven the durability of our fuel cell technology in the field. As we mentioned earlier, over 70 million kilometers of in-revenue service of now 3,300 buses and trucks in operation. No one else has that type of install base for buses and trucks.
If you look at some of the units we've had in the field, operating in some cases, you know, over eight years, we've seen, you know, 38,000 hours of durability on same fuel cell stack. These are industry durability records, and we're not talking about the passenger car market here, where you need 5,000, maybe up to 10,000 hours of durability. We're talking about a market where you need 30,000-40,000 hours of durability. We've proven that out in the field, not as a lab exercise or as a concept.
k at, you know, brands looking to put technology into their vehicles, you know, they're going to want to make sure they have not just safety and reliability, but also the durability for a total cost of ownership. I think we have a significant advantage on total cost of ownership because of our durability, proven durability. I also think if you look at the MAHLE relationship and their positioning in the commercial vehicle market and what areas they have expertise in, it's highly complementary to the work that we can do to increase performance and reduce costs on the stack
If you look at some of the balance of plant components that they're currently designing and will be launching and integrated into our advanced fuel cell engine for the commercial truck market in Europe, I think it's exciting collaboration. If I was to compare it to other collaborations, I think it should be very strongly positioned.
Great. Thank you. My last one, the order book at year-end was almost CAD 118 million, with CAD eighty-three and a half million to be delivered in 2021. Since year-end, to the point in prepared remarks, you announced the Canadian Pacific trade opportunity, the global energy hydrogen carrier opportunity, the U.K. passenger train opportunity, and the bus orders with Wrightbus and Solaris. We're kind of guesstimating just those combined might be CAD 11 million in orders. Could your order book for 2021 delivery already be approaching CAD 100 million right now as we speak?
Yeah. To me, what I would prefer to focus on is, you know, directionally, what is the order book going to look like perhaps at the end of 2021? I think with the sales pipeline activity we have, we expect to see some great conversion in 2021. I don't want to in any way suggest what the 2021 outlook on revenue is going to be, just because with COVID-19 and the early stage of the market, you know, our position is not to provide financial guidance.
Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from Jonathan Lamers with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Most of my questions were asked. On simplifying the customer experience, could you expand on what the customers are looking for there? What Ballard would be looking to acquire or could develop in-house?
Yeah. Great question, Jonathan. Basically, what we want to do is simplify the ability for customers, and here I'm thinking of vehicle OEMs and then ultimately end users. At the vehicle OEM, how do they integrate a fuel cell module into their vehicle platform? How do they integrate it into a powertrain and then onto the vehicle itself? Today, our scope of work is typically to provide the fuel cell engine. The vehicle OEM need to take that engine, pair it up with a DC-to-DC converter, pair it up with a storage solution, integrate it into an electric powertrain, and then also make sure that the packaging for everything into their vehicle platform is effective and efficient as well.
You know, in some cases, customers have that in-house capability. In other cases, initially, they're using third-party systems integrators. Really what we want to do is simplify that experience for them to bring more scope and importantly, to optimize the solution. As an illustrative example, and by the way, I should have mentioned that that package also includes batteries as well. As an example, what's the right DC-to-DC converter for a certain application? What's the right amount of fuel cells versus batteries for a certain application and use case duty cycle? We want to provide more value and simplify that experience for the customer to reduce customer friction points and enable and accelerate adoption, while also getting more value for Ballard in the process. That optimization will also lead, in my opinion, to cost reduction.
Right. Thanks. One question on China, Randy. You mentioned that your trip increased your confidence that the Weichai JV will play a meaningful role as the market grows. Did you uncover any updated sense on the competitive dynamics, whether the competitors products will meet the technical requirements needed to qualify for the subsidies as well as Ballard's products can?
I would say it was the opposite. I actually had the opportunity to meet with a number of companies that could be competitors to Ballard and came away, recognizing they had a lot of work to do to catch up.
Thanks. For Tony? On the technology solutions business, the Audi program appears to be winding down from a revenue contribution perspective. Are there any replacements for that business on the horizon?
Yes, you're quite right. The Audi pro, as we've announced previously, that program is starting to reach the end of its TS program life. Yeah, the revenue has ramped down. Yeah, you know, Randy, I'll go back to the pipeline and, you know, referring to the pipeline Randy mentioned earlier, we do have a fairly significant number of TS programs that are in the pipeline at the moment. You know, hopefully, we'll be able to convert some of those over the course of the year. Nothing that I think we can point to or want to point to at this particular point, but lots of interest coming from different markets. You know, we've kind of talked about some new and evolving and developing markets.
Some of those could generate some additional engineering service and TS programs in some new markets. Hopefully, we'll have more, we can talk a bit more specifically about some of these this year, but there is a decent amount of TS in that pipeline that Randy mentioned. Randy, you want to supplement or?
Yeah, I think one important point, too, is, you know, we've had a significant portion of our engineering labor force allocated against our technology solutions programs. For us, the ability to actually reallocate some of that talent towards some of the in-house programs, albeit increasing our cost structure, is, I think, a really interesting opportunity because this again feeds into the point about acceleration.
Okay, one really basic question. On the sales pipeline, is the dollar base for that 55% increase, like, just a bit larger than the company's consolidated sales? How should we think about that?
Significantly higher.
Yeah. Okay.
Yeah. Yeah.
Okay. I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Yeah.
The next question comes from MacMurray Whale with Cormark Securities. Please go ahead.
Thanks, guys, for letting me ask the question. I know it's going on a bit long here. Just very quickly, Randy, you talked about pent-up demand in China. When the announcements come out, do you think there's enough time left in 21 where you can deliver into that pent-up demand so that maybe your estimates of what the market would be in 21 might still be, like I say, a year ago, might still be valid? Or can you not just catch up?
Great question. I think there's a couple of layers to it. First of all, we need to make sure how are the policies structured? In some cases, the policies may be structured so that, you know, first to use gets highest subsidies or get access to those subsidies, you know, if there are limited subsidy pools in certain pockets as well. There could be a race in some cases to use some of the higher subsidies that might become available. We'll have to see how the policy is structured and whether that incents, you know, rapid deployment, first of all. The second thing is that, of course, the JV does have some inventory.
Really, what we want to see, of course, initially, are, you know, more deployments out of the JV that relieve that inventory and allow us to recognize, deferred revenue. That will be helpful. Then, of course, the third will be as we move through that inventory, at the JV, and then move into additional sales beyond that, triggering, you know, more MEA, volume purchase orders from Ballard to support the JV activities. That's the way I would think about it.
Okay. You know, having followed the space for two decades now, it's interesting to the comments that you say about the competition not being ready. I can wholeheartedly back that up if that matters to anyone. It's interesting to me. I would say your position then is one in which you're willing to allow, or let me phrase it another way, you can disagree, but it's almost as if you're not that threatened by what you see. Is there not a risk that you let a customer try some competitor, they come away disillusioned with the capability of fuel cells, and the industry loses a believer, as opposed to Ballard losing a customer? Could you not take your big balance sheet, drop pricing, drive demand, win big market share, and dominate the industry and have happy customers?
I'm just wondering how you see the balance sheet in that game.
I want to clarify something. The question about competitors and where what status they're at, I again believe we have a strong leadership position in these medium- and heavy-duty motive markets. I was commenting specifically on some of the development activity, company development activity, and product development activity in China. Of course, there are other competitors, Toyota, Hyundai, you know, Daimler, et cetera. Again, most of them have been focused on the passenger car market, they're now pivoting. If you look at the timeline, for example, for cellcentric, which is the JV between Daimler Truck and Volvo Truck, the timeline is many years after our timeline with MAHLE. We're, I think we're well positioned there.
Of course, you have other companies, you know, Bosch, for example, is active, and Cummins is active. There are credible competitors here. I don't wanna be dismissive of the competition, to be clear. What I do think is that, you mentioned, you know, will some customers potentially work with others and have bad experiences? We have seen that over the last number of years, and those customers are now with Ballard. I could, you know, there are quite a few examples of that, particularly in the bus market, where they've tried others.
There's a reason we have, you know, over 85% market share, because, you know, not only are we providing a product that has the highest performance in the field, but we take care of the customers from a customer service and customer experience perspective. You know, I think, as we look at, you know, opportunities going forward, I think the commitment level from customers isn't so vulnerable that if they have a bad experience with a potential supplier, that's gonna turn them off the market. I think it will enable them to turn to others, and if they're having bad experiences, they're always welcome to come to Ballard.
Great. Thanks. Thanks, Randy. Just an appreciation goes out to you, Tony, over the years, with all your hard work and insight. Thanks and good luck.
Thanks, Tony. Appreciate it.
This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Randy MacEwen, the CEO, for any closing remarks.
Great. The call went a little longer today and appreciate your patience for that. Thanks everyone for joining. Paul Dobson, our new CFO, effective March 29th, and I look forward to speaking with you in early May, when we'll discuss our results for Q1 2021.
This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.