Earnings Call: Q3 2014

Nov 7, 2014

Thank you for standing by. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome to the Brookfield Asset Management 2014 Third Quarter Results Conference Call and Webcast. As a reminder, all participants are in a listen only mode and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Amar Dottar, Investor Relations for Brookfield Asset Management. Please go ahead. Thank you, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us for our Q3 web cast and conference call. On the call with me today are Bruce Flatt, our Chief Executive Officer and Brian Lawson, our Chief Financial Officer. Brian will start this morning discussing the highlights of our financial and operating results. Bruce will then discuss our views on the current investment and market environment as well as a number of our major growth initiatives in the quarter. At the end of our formal comments, we will turn the call over to the operator to open the call up for questions. In order to accommodate all who want to ask questions, can we please ask that you refrain from asking multiple questions at one time to provide an opportunity for others in the queue. We will be happy to respond to additional questions later in the conference call as time permits. I would at this time remind you that in responding to questions and in talking about our new initiatives and our financial and operating performance, we may make forward looking statements. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and future results may differ materially. For further information for investors, I would encourage you to review our annual information form or our annual report, both of which are available on our website. Thank you. And I'd like to turn the call over to Brian. Thank you, Amar, and good morning. We reported funds from operations for the Q3 of $564,000,000 $0.83 per share and net income was $1,100,000,000 or $1.09 per share. These results reflect continued growth in the cash flows and values within our business and in particular our asset management operations. I'll start by breaking these results down for you. FFO included 3 $62,000,000 from operating activities compared to $342,000,000 in the prior year. This represents an increase of 6%. However, I would note that the prior period included the impact of exceptionally strong pricing within several of our more cyclical private equity investments, the impact of above average water flows on our power operations and the inclusion of a large catch up fee within our asset management results. And in contrast, the current quarter reflected below average water flows and the roll off in late last year of a large lease in Lower Manhattan. So as a result, the 6% growth really understates the solid progress across virtually all of our operations, which I will discuss in a moment. Disposition gains within FFO totaled $202,000,000 for the quarter, most of which came from the sale of a private equity investment in a forest products company. In the prior year, we recorded $851,000,000 of gains during the quarter that arose from several large monetizations. The increase in net income quarter over quarter reflects a higher level of fair value gains in the current quarter, primarily in our office property portfolio as well as increased valuations of our retail properties. These gains reflect growth in cash flows positive leasing spreads within the properties as well as lower discount rates. We continue to experience strong momentum in our asset management business. Our fee bearing capital is now at $84,000,000,000 and this is up 14% over the past 12 months. This growth reflects the acquisition of our office property portfolio earlier this year, the continued expansion of public partnerships and meaningful expansion in our private funds. 2 of our flagship private funds are more than 90% committed. And as a result, we are in the market with 4 funds that are seeking to raise more than $12,000,000,000 of capital. Our clients continue to allocate an increasing amount of their portfolios to real asset strategies. And as a result, we expect our flagship funds will be approximately twice as large as on an ongoing basis. Bruce will speak further about our ability to attract more capital in his remarks. In the quarter, fee related earnings were $102,000,000 This is up nicely over the $97,000,000 in the same period in 2013 when you consider that the prior results included $18,000,000 of catch up fees related to prior periods. Over the past 12 months, fee related earnings, I. E. Our fee revenues after deducting direct costs are up 20% $346,000,000 and annualized fee revenues increased by 22% over the same period. Turning to the results from our investments in our operating businesses. We had a strong quarter in our property business and a number of the other segments. Looking at each platform, the FFO from our property operations was $136,000,000 and that's up from $121,000,000 in the same quarter last year. Leasing activity was excellent as we signed major tenants to long term contracts at properties in New York and London. We leased 3,200,000 square feet during the quarter and Brookfield Place, New York is now 95% leased, which will meaningfully increase FFO in 2015 2016. And commitments from new tenants put us in a position to launch construction of new office buildings in Manhattan and the City of London. We signed new leases at 47% above expiring rents in our office property and at 16% above expiring rents in our shopping mall business. We disposed of 13 properties for gross proceeds of approximately $700,000,000 and a modest gain as part of our continued active recycling of capital. FFO from our Renewable Energy Group was $28,000,000 This is a decrease of $29,000,000 over the compared to the same quarter last year and this was due to reduced generation levels. In the current generation was 13% below long term average compared to last year when the results were 4% above long term average generation. We continue to invest in growth initiatives in the business including investments in 3 Irish Wind Farms that will be operational within the next year and in terms of additional development add on to the portfolio acquisition that we made earlier and a Brazilian hydro project that should begin producing electricity in 2016. In our infrastructure business, FFO was $55,000,000 that's in line with expectations and 12% higher than the 2013 quarter on a same store basis. We achieved favorable growth from development initiatives and growth in revenue streams. We closed approximately $1,000,000,000 of investments during the quarter including a Brazilian logistics business and a California natural gas storage facility. In our private equity business, FFO declined somewhat to $110,000,000 that reflects the impact of lower prices on several of our more cyclical businesses. But on the other hand, we experienced continued increase in FFO from our North American Residential business. Our Private Equity Group committed $540,000,000 during the quarter due to the acquisition of natural gas reserves. This is the latest in a series of investments in a sector that has created a company that is among the largest in North American coal bed methane businesses. Finally, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.16 per share that will be paid at the end of December. And I will now turn the call over to Bruce. Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. As Brian noted, we had a good quarter. Make commit or make a number of large investments during the quarter. In property, we added both a large portfolio of buildings in India and a significant net lease commercial property business in the United States. We think both of these transactions will lead to great opportunities for organic growth over time. In infrastructure, we committed to acquire a telecom tower business in France, which we believe will be a platform for consolidation in the future. And in the last few days, we joined the Qatar Investment Authority and made a proposal to acquire the balance of Canary Wharf and its publicly listed holding company that owns shares in Canary Wharf. This bid was publicly disclosed yesterday by the U. K. Listed company. And at this time, we cannot comment further in the question period due to regulatory requirements. But as most of you know, we and QIA are the largest owners of Canary Wharf. We jointly own about 43% of Canary Wharf on a look through basis and have been owners both of us have been owners for over a decade. We continue to see interest in the investments we make for all of our clients. And I point to a handful of trends that we believe we need in our favor in order to continue to grow the offerings that we the investments that we make. And I'll address a few of them for you here. The first is institutions continuing to allocate capital to real asset investments. And in this regard, we are confident that this will continue. Our observation from dealing with most global institutions and sovereign funds is that real asset allocations actually continue to accelerate at a quick pace. The simple reason is that the alternatives for investment are somewhat bleak. To make the point, we offer 8% to 20% yields with moderate risk. Contrast that with bonds that offer 1% to 3% yields with the chance of capital loss in the future. There are of course many other reasons for these increased allocations, but the math I just explained gives the simplest rationale. The second item we need for growth is our continued ability to deploy the vast amounts of capital we have, while maintaining solid returns for our clients. In this regard, we have invested close to $20,000,000,000 in the past year. We think many of these investments will turn out as exceptional investments. To be very specific, this has been during a period when we have heard many times that there are no opportunities out there. One reason for this that we would offer is that we can invest in very large transactions. Most people cannot commit to acquire for example a $4,000,000,000 transmission tower business, a $4,000,000,000 net lease portfolio or be involved in a $10,000,000,000 acquisition of real estate. Furthermore, our franchise is large and global and few people can shift have the luxury to be able to shift capital and people from markets which are with excess capital to those which are underserved in order to capitalize on the lack of capital in those markets. To be to use an example, our acquisitions today are in contrast to many of the investments available otherwise. For example, if one is looking to acquire a property or infrastructure investment that requires $100,000,000 of equity in a gateway U. S. Market, there will likely be an auction with 30 to 50 bidders showing up. But this is not too relevant to us as we don't generally spend time on any of these opportunities. This is in stark contrast to 2,009 when we shifted virtually all of our capital to these developed markets like the United States and Australia because they had declined significantly and we were buying at substantial discounts to replacement cost. The number of acquisitions we can complete is always the most unpredictable, but we see no reason that we cannot deploy the capital we have into solid opportunities globally. In fact, we could easily make the argument that we are far better set up today to deploy the capital we have than we were 10 to 20 years ago as our global offices continue to mature and our investment people across the globe are further integrated into our culture. The 3rd trend that we have in our favor that we need in our favor for success are positive global business conditions. Of course, this is clearly outside our control, but our observation is that over the past 10, 20, 50, 100 years the global economy on average has continued to grow and the health and wealth of individuals across the world has improved. We believe this will continue. The assets we buy are the backbone of the global economy and despite some trying times and downturns which are inevitable, we believe that we will be able to endure these markets and sometimes even advance our cause when periods of global economic disruption and consolidation occur. In this regard, I will end my comments with 3 about the global markets. The first is that all indications in our businesses have been and still are that is growing faster than otherwise believed. With gasoline prices down, this should accelerate retail sales in the 4th quarter, which is not factored into most expectations. In addition, eventually the pause in housing sales will end and sales numbers should resume a march slowly towards 1,500,000 sales of homes. This will be positive for the U. S. Economy. As a result, our view is that the U. S. Will record good GDP growth and that all of our assets in the United States will benefit. The negative is that we will not be buying a lot of assets in the U. S. In this period as capital is freely available and buyers are bound. But exits will be easier and we continue to selectively harvest capital in all of our developed markets. The second comment is on the 3 emerging markets Brazil, India the 3 major emerging markets Brazil, India and China. There continues to be a lot of uncertainty in many investors' minds about these markets. For short term investors, those views are likely correct. But for the longer term investors, the scarcity of capital, the lack of interest by many and the number of transactions completed in more robust times that must be recapitalized offer some phenomenal opportunities. Bottom line, for us this means we will be making many more investments in these markets on top of the large list over the past 18 months. Excess likely will be limited and we will be working our own operations hard to squeeze value out of our business in this environment. The 3rd market I will address is Europe. This large market will not be about growth for a long time in our view. As a result, we underwrite all transactions expecting very low growth and a declining currency. Despite this, there are many opportunities to buy assets for value and earn very good returns. As a result, we will also continue to allocate greater amounts of capital to these countries when returns can be earned assuming low growth and with a hedge currency position. With that operator, I will end my comments and ask you to open the lines for any questions if there are any. Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer today comes from Cherilyn Radbourne of TD Securities. Please go ahead. Thanks very much and good morning. I wanted to ask you a couple of questions related to the transaction that was announced yesterday. Starting with just if you could tell us how you think about telecom, because it does have an obsolescence factor associated with it, which makes it somewhat different from what you've done traditionally? Yes. I'm I would just say the following. I guess our view is that in the infrastructure business what we're trying to invest into are assets which are the backbone infrastructure of the economy across the world. And we view that telecom infrastructure towers, which are really carrying the vast amounts of the technological unreplicable. And if you can get a whole get invested in some of them, they will be they will endure time and they will be excellent cash generators. And over time, you'll be able to continue to participate in this technological improvement that's going on, because all the capacity a lot of the capacity goes through those towers. So we weren't invested in them in the United States in past. And as you probably know there's a number of very high quality companies in the U. S. That own them. But there's other places in the world where we think they we can benefit from the knowledge we have about them in the U. S. And other things. And while in some cases, there is more CapEx involved, We think that the returns will be excellent. And so when you have a transaction like that, which involves the Brookfield Infrastructure Fund, BIP and some third party partners, can you just speak broadly about how you deal with issues like operational control, governance and the distribution policy? Yes. So all these investments, I think most people on the call know is that they get made through our this one specifically gets made through our infrastructure fund. And the portion of the capital that's the Brookfield capital is invested from Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, the listed entity. And I'd say our and we have partners at the asset level who invested beside us. So, we're all interested in the same thing, bottom line. We're interested in growing the capital the distributions in this entity, earning decent and strong yields over time. And we have various arrangements where if we need more capital in business or want to grow it, we can do that within the business. Of course, there may be times when and this has happened in past when there are institutions we have that or a fund that's fully invested and what we do is just continue those investments in the next successor fund, but obviously offer any partners we have co investment rights. So we it's a pretty tested pattern we have. Okay. Thank you. That's my 2. Thank you. The next question comes from Mario Sarat of Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning. I was reading the letter to shareholders with interest and specifically under the long term plan section looking at kind of a target valuation for the asset management business of 45,000,000,000 dollars within 10 years, a number surely big enough so that the vehicle can stand on its own. I'm just wondering like valuation aside, how do you see the structure of that franchise evolving over time? And if we look 10 years out, is it more likely than not that your asset management business is a standalone company going forward? Here's what I would say, it's Bruce. Our view is that we should do the best thing to maximize value for the shareholders of the company. And we'll do that over time and assess it. Today, we see great value having the capital associated with our asset manager. It Whether that changes over time and whether we should separate Whether that changes over time and whether we should separate capital or distribute more capital back to shareholders, we think of it all the time. The Board considers it all the time. And as you know, we have from time to time made special dividends back to shareholders and we'll continue to do that. So we're open to suggestions, although we have no plans to do anything to the main structure of Brookfield Asset Management as we speak. Okay. I'm just curious when we look at your Investor Day presentation, your 2018 NAV $100 per share about 32% of that is related to the GP as opposed to investments in other stuff. So I'm just kind of curious or wondering whether there is a magic number there where you think that at 32% you get full credit for an asset management business that's growing at 15% to 20% per year Or is the magic number 50% or 75%? Here's what I would say. We don't think about these things in the short term. It's highly possible that you might be able to in the short term split things apart and make more money next week in the stock market. But our decisions are really made over looking at on the next over the next 10 or 15 years in the business model, is it a good thing to have capital tied to the business or not? And to the extent it is, we'll keep the capital tied to the business. That's been the decision so far. If it isn't, then we'll split it apart. And we'll just have to where that gets valued in the market in the short term isn't too relevant in our minds to the long term decisions of how we make them because these are very long term businesses. Yes. And the one thing I'd add to that Mario, it's Brian, is I think it's one of the points we've tried to stress over the past while is we do have tremendous flexibility in that balance sheet capital. So over time, we have the ability to respond to the factors that Bruce was alluding to in the context of the circumstances at that time. And so we can assess on an ongoing basis whether 32% is the right number or maybe it's an absolute dollar number or just what the business looks like. And so we do have the latitude to adapt as we move forward. Okay. And my second question would just be with respect to your comment on increasing allocations to real assets and it seems like the primary driver behind that is just the ultra low interest rate environment. Based on your discussions, is there a magic number where that changes? So if the 10 years at 2 to 2.5, if it goes up to 4 to 4.5, is that the number where institutions magically say that number makes sense for us, we're going to contract our allocations to real assets? Or is it more complicated than that? Of course, every institution has their own views. And so I'd say it's definitely more complicated than that. But my contribution to try to answer your question, I'd say that the these institutions are getting introduced to real assets, because interest rates are low, I don't think that's ever stopping. Our belief is that global allocations will continue to increase and they'll become a greater amount of institutional clients. And as you know, some are at 50% already, some are at more than 50%. If rates go to 10% on the back end, there's no doubt. If we earn them 15% and they can earn 10% in a long treasury, you may not choose to put as much to real assets. I don't though to the point, our belief is that long rates in the United States are going to 4% to 6%. Our business works really well at 4% to 6% long rates. And our business and institutional allocations will do very well at 4% to 6% long treasuries. So I don't think it's stopping for a long time. Okay, great. Thank you. The next question comes from Andrew Kuske of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning. I guess this question is for Bruce and it's just on where you are in the phase of the build out of your asset management business and just from a body count perspective and maybe whether we talk about it in terms of geography or product vertical, how much more build out do you need? Or are there certain regions of the world that you need to bulk up more say India or China for that matter? Maybe just some color around that whole concept. Yes. So with respect to geography, we're in almost every country that we want to be in and have a presence in it. There's no doubt over time as we make more investments, we have to increase our presence in some countries and we do that slowly and as we need it. But most of the places where we want to put capital, we have people and it's just additional resources to continue to grow the business. And we'll add that on a marginal basis. As to product categories and other investments we could make, I'd say we don't really have a goal to have any other products within the business other than within our within each of our sectors from time to time we come across a broadening of what we actually do. So telecom towers we hadn't invested in before. We've looked at them a long time. We couldn't make returns based on U. S. Acquisitions and we found one to be able to invest. So I'd say we'll add different businesses within and usually, we can organically grow those businesses over a very long period of time and once we learn them about those businesses. And that's more where we'll tend to put our resources. So I guess the takeaway is you really view your business as quite scalable right now. And so if you had incremental, let's say, 25% more AUM, there's really not a significant change in your body count? That is correct. Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you. Our next question comes from Bert Powell of BMO. Please go ahead. Thanks. Just a quick question on the base management fee percentage. The midpoint of the range is 1.35 and you're not quite there today. Can you just walk us through the timing around closing that gap and why you're keeping it below the target range today? Sure. And you're talking about the private funds I presume Bert. Yes. Yes. It's Brian. So in essence what you're seeing is the roll off of some funds that we had launched a number of years ago either because it was an initial fund for us or because for example our turnaround fund that we launched during the financial crisis was skewed very much towards carry and had minimal base fees, which actually turned out to be a very good thing. But as those funds have wound down or in the process of winding down, the new funds are at higher base management fees. And so that's so I'd say over the next 2 or 3 years, you'll continue to see that creep up. In fact, it's probably going to continue even for another year or 2 after that. It's a gradual process because these are long life funds. Okay. But what you're the funds that you're in the market with today and what getting are very consistent with that $125,000,000 to $150,000,000 on basis points? Absolutely. Yes. That's great. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand the call back over to Mr. Dotar for closing comments. Thank you for joining us today. This concludes our Q3 webcast and conference call.