Hello, everyone, and a warm welcome to the Canadian Apartment Properties REIT third quarter 2021 results conference call. My name is Simona, and I'll be coordinating your call today. If you would like to register a question during the presentation, you may do so by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. With that, I have the pleasure of handing over to your host, David Mills. Please go ahead, Mr. Mills.
Thank you, Simona. I'm hardly the host, but thank you for this. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that the following discussion may include comments that constitute forward-looking statements about expected future events and the financial and operating results of CAPREIT. Our actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements, as such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Discussions concerning these risk factors, the forward-looking statements, and the factors and assumptions on which they are based can be found in CAPREIT's regulatory filings, including our annual information form and MD&A, which can be obtained at sedar.com. I'll now turn things over to Mark Kenney, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.
Thanks, David. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Scott Cryer, our Chief Financial Officer, is also with me this morning. Let's get started. As you can see on slide four, we continue to generate solid quarterly performance this year and look for increased gains in our key metrics going forward as we work our way out of the COVID pandemic. Revenues were up, driven by the contribution from our acquisitions, increased monthly rents, and continuing high occupancies. Stabilized NOI increased again, as did our FFO, all while maintaining a very strong payout ratio of 58.8%. Our growth also remains accretive to unitholders, with FFO per unit up 3.6% in the quarter. Turning to slide five, we look forward to another record year in 2021 as our performance through the first nine months shows solid gains.
All of our key benchmarks were up over last year, including revenues, NOI, and FFO. With FFO per unit rising over 3%, we continue to generate solid and accretive growth for our unitholders. It is also important to note that we have experienced very few collection issues through the pandemic. To date, we have collected over 99% of our rents as we work with our residents to understand their issues and to ensure that we collect on a timely basis. Looking ahead, we expect to see further increases in occupancies, accelerated growth, and much improved operating performance as we gradually return to more normal markets and operations. From an operating perspective, our ability to generate solid performance in both good and bad times is clearly demonstrated by the results of our stabilized portfolio, as you can see on slide six.
Occupancies improved again in the third quarter, while net average monthly rents continued to increase. Our track record of organic growth also continues with same property NOI up a solid 2.1% while maintaining a strong NOI margin of over 66.1%. We believe we are turning a corner with the successful vaccine rollout and a return to more normal markets. Our leasing and marketing programs continue to generate increasing occupancies, as you can see on slide seven. After almost two years of operating under significant pandemic restrictions, our occupancy has remained highly stable, rising to just under 98% at September 30th. You can also see that our bad debts as a percentage of total revenues have remained low throughout the pandemic at under 1%. We expect occupancies will steadily improve through the balance of this year and as the pandemic eases.
We are already seeing an increased interest in in-person and online potential resident visits with strong and accelerating demand for our affordable, high-quality, and spacious suites. Another positive sign is the rent increase we are seeing on suite turnovers and increased churn that we've experienced over the last two quarters. As you can see on slide eight, rents were up 6% on turnover in the third quarter on higher churn rates, continuing the positive trend since we bottomed out at the height of the pandemic in Q1. Looking ahead, we are experiencing more in-person and online visits, and we expect we will start to see more higher mark-to-market rent increases in the quarters ahead, moving us toward the higher levels of increases we generated prior to when the pandemic set in.
As we've stated before, our renewal increases continue to be affected by rent freezes implemented last April to help our residents work through the pandemic. Looking ahead, however, rent guideline increases of 1.2% in Ontario and 1.5% in B.C. are good signs. Importantly, we'll be implementing these increases in both markets effective January 1, 2022, capturing a full year of these guideline increases in both provinces, which currently represent about 55% of our total NOI. It's a positive sign. Turning to slide nine, we continue to increase the size and scale of our property portfolio. In 2020, we added 3,262 suites and sites for CAD 820 million. So far this year, we have acquired 3,122 suites and sites, majority in our key GTA and B.C. markets.
Our acquisition pipeline remains strong and robust despite the cap rate compression, we expect to generate further accretive growth in the quarters ahead. In September, we also sold 87 non-core suites for CAD 52.5 million, and we continue to evaluate our total portfolio to assess whether recycling certain capital will contribute to more accretive growth. I'll now turn things over to Scott for his financial review.
Thanks, Mark. As you can see on slide 11, our balance sheet and financial position continued to strengthen through the third quarter with a conservative debt to gross book value and continuing high liquidity. Our over CAD 1.2 billion in Canadian unencumbered properties provide additional liquidity should it be needed. In addition, we had CAD 243 million available through our credit facilities and CAD 138 million in cash at quarter end. In total, if we were to access all these sources of capital, we have available liquidity of over CAD 1.3 billion. Even if we did this, our leverage ratio would still remain a very conservative 41%.
Looking at our financing through the first nine months of the year, we locked in very low interest rate of under 2.2% on our refinancing and top-ups and extended our term to maturity. We expect we will continue to benefit from the current low interest rate environment for some time and expect to finance a total of approximately CAD 1.3 billion in mortgages in 2021. At quarter end, over 99% of our mortgages incurred a fixed interest rate. We were also pleased to see another significant increase in the fair value of our property portfolio, increasing CAD 722 million so far this year, following a CAD 750 million increase in 2020, excluding the impact of net acquisitions, operating lease buyouts and foreign exchange.
As you can see on slide 12, we continue to capitalize on the current low interest rate environment, reducing interest costs in Canada and extending the term to maturity. The ability to capture strong spreads and low interest costs in the Netherlands is also contributing to our lower overall interest costs and extending the term. Further to our strong and flexible financial position, looking back over the last few years, you can see on slide 13 that we have met our goal of maintaining very conservative debt and coverage ratios even through the pandemic. This conservative approach underpins the stability and resilience of our business and the sustainability of our monthly cash distributions to unitholders. This focus on maintaining one of the strongest balance sheets in our business will continue going forward. Our mortgage portfolio remains well-balanced, as shown on slide 14.
As you can see, in any given year, no more than 13% of our total mortgages come due, thereby reducing risk in a rising interest rate environment. Looking ahead, our current ability to top up renewing mortgages through 2036 will provide further significant liquidity. You can also see that we have considerable opportunity to reduce our long-term interest costs in today's attractive interest rate environment. The current five-year and 10-year estimated rates of approximately 2.3% and 2.6% are well below expiring mortgage rates of between 2.6% and 3.4% over the next three or four years. I'll turn things back to Mark to wrap up.
Thanks, Scott. Looking ahead, we see a number of very positive value drivers that we are confident will generate strong and growing returns for our unitholders over both the short and the long term. Turning to slide 16, we can see several of these key drivers of value that will take place and hold in the months and years ahead. Our accretive portfolio growth will continue based on our proven and successful asset allocation strategy. We are experiencing a strong pipeline of acquisition opportunities in our targeted value add apartment and MHC space, where we continue to focus on Canada's three largest cities, Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal. Importantly, the low interest rate environment provides significant opportunities to acquire properties with strong cap rate spreads to reduce interest costs on our refinancing initiatives. Our industry-leading balance sheet, leverage, and liquidity also position us for growth going forward.
We believe that we will also benefit from a number of market trends as the pandemic eases in the months ahead, including increased immigration, a return to the office and in-person learning, an increasingly affordable alternative of our high-quality rental portfolio offering as compared to the significantly higher cost of owning a home. In addition, our ongoing investments in our properties and our operating platform are enhancing the attractiveness and value of our portfolio, improving efficiency, driving revenue gains, reducing costs, and helping us meet our ESG goals. In summary, we remain very excited about our future. Our focus on the mid-tier sector meets increasing demand for affordable, high-quality homes. Our predominantly suburban locations outside of downtown cores and our larger-sized suites, townhomes, and manufactured housing sites are meeting the needs for renters that are seeking more space.
We're experiencing a strong pipeline of accretive acquisition opportunities and expect to see solid portfolio growth in the quarters ahead. The continuing low interest rate environment provides significant opportunities to acquire properties with strong cap rate spreads to reduce our interest costs and refinancing initiatives. In closing, I want to once again thank everyone at CAPREIT for their hard work and dedication, and to our residents for their patience during these challenging times. Looking ahead, we are confident we are gradually returning to more normal market conditions and will continue our 25-year track record of growth, strong operating performance, and delivering enhanced value to our unitholders. Thank you for your time this morning, and we would now be pleased to take any questions that you may have.
If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, you can press star followed by two to cancel your request. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure that your phone is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Jonathan Kelcher of TD Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead, Jonathan.
Thanks, good morning.
Morning.
First question, Mark, you talked about sounds like a pretty good acquisition pipeline. You are selling some assets. How should we think about capital recycling with regards to funding your pipeline?
Sorry, the dispositions I should say. We're seeing cap rates that start with a one, really mid-one cap deals, and they're not. These buildings aren't trading because of their income value or cap rate value. They're trading because of development potential. The several trades that we have done, you know, we're in a great position there because we haven't even started the development process ourselves or the entitlement process, but they were land assemblies where our buildings just happen to be in great locations. The reality is, if we can continue to, you know, sell cap rates in the ones and buy cap rates in the mid-threes, we'll just keep doing that.
Okay. How should we think about your own development program then? Or there's just enough to go around, I guess.
Well, there's lots there, but we're gonna continue to do the work. You know, we're inching towards entitlement on several sites, but I'm cautious right now. You know, there's the pricing environment. What we're learning is it's difficult to get cost commitments on development that are more than 90 days out. There's supply chain issues. Things, the cost of things, are moving around. You know, as we're penning pro formas, they're really uncertain right now. Until the supply chain settles down, I'd be very cautious about proceeding on the opportunities that we have. That being said, if we continue to find a way of recognizing the land value in some of our buildings with cap rates trading in the ones, we'll continue to look at that.
Okay. Just switching gears to operations. Both the Toronto and Montreal markets had a negative same property NOI this quarter. Can you maybe give a little bit of color on what's happening in each of those two markets?
Well, I think it's what we had predicted. Q3, we were all hoping to see perhaps more of a hockey stick return, but the trend is extremely positive. Like it seems to be almost daily now, we're seeing upticks in traffic, and those upticks in traffic can obviously allow us to price our product properly. The trend of occupancy, you can see in the portfolio now we're now down to almost under 2%, and that allows us to just have confidence with our pricing power going forward. I think we can look forward to seeing the trend continue into Q4. It's not slowing down. If anything, it's escalating.
Okay. Thanks. I'll turn it back.
Thanks, Jonathan.
Thank you, Jonathan. Our next question comes from Brad Sturges of Raymond James. Brad, please proceed with your question.
Hi, good morning. Just to follow on to the commentary there, is that more the key under- 30 demographic you're seeing in terms of improving traffic or do you see maybe some other demand drivers starting to come back a bit more like foreign immigration or even international students?
I characterize the market this way. It's now an issue of back to work mandating. Those under -30s, it's really gonna now track very closely the appetite that employers have to mandate back to work. Many employers still haven't done that. It's starting to happen, and we're seeing the direct result of that. You know, generally speaking, in cities where back to work is being mandated or hybrid work or whatever the case may be, we're seeing people return to the market. Secondly, on the student phenomenon, this is speculation completely, but we're very optimistic that there will be in-class learning in post-secondary institutions that don't currently have in-class learning. What that might result in, if we're being optimistic, is enrollments in the second semester that you wouldn't normally see.
Kids that chose to not go to post-secondary or continuing their education because it was online and they're staying at home, there might be an unusual uptick in activity if there's confidence of in-class learning in Q2. On the immigration front, I wouldn't say the wave has really started yet, but it's gotta be reflected in visa applications getting processed and the traffic uptick that we're now seeing. It's all the factors that I talked about during the presentation, but they're all moving into positive momentum now.
Okay. That's good, that's good color. In terms of acquisitions, as you said, you know, active pipeline, you know, focused on the big three cities, you know, what would be your appetite for, let's say, Alberta, Calgary, or Edmonton perhaps? Is that more on the radar today or still kind of more of the focus on the cities that you've already alluded to?
I think the good operators in those markets are doing really well. I think that the story for those three markets. Well, just let's say Edmonton, Calgary, if you want me to comment on those. The worst of the pandemic is over, and the worst of the oil and gas movements are over. I think there's a sense of optimism in those cities because the oil extraction regions that are active are gonna stay active. It's highly unlikely infrastructure dollars are going to drilling more oil. Looking at what's happening with the price of oil, it's gotta be positive there as well. The issue that I think good multifamily operators are trying to overcome is there is still a lot of new construction product, and the quality is quite jaw-dropping.
I would say in general, where there's attractive cap rates, the upside is likely moving in a positive direction there.
Mm-hmm. I guess last question in terms of funding future acquisitions. You know, you did a deal on St. Clair West with the vendor taking back stock. Is that gonna be a component of future deals more so than what we've seen in the past? Or, you know, is there more appetite from vendors to take back stock as part of acquisitions?
Yeah. There's definitely more private vendors in the market now, as we've talked about. The appetite to take cap rate risk and, you know, running an apartment building in a challenging environment has been enough for some vendors to say, "We like your currency." You know, I'm very open to doing deals where I'm, you know, striking a deal at above NAV and avoiding discounting of the stock and dilution to our existing unitholders and the cost of underwriting charges, so fees. So effectively, at St. Clair, we did a private placement, when you think of it, without the need to move to the capital markets and having discounting and the cost of issuing equity. So we're open to that.
There's a limitation to what we can do in that regard, in our own way of thinking. With a strategy that we're open to, if it's going to circumvent a market process and give us access to a deal at attractive values that we may not be competitive in the open market on.
Okay. Great. I'll turn it back. Thanks a lot.
Thanks, Brad.
Our next question comes from Joanne Chen of BMO Financial Group . Joanne, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning.
Good morning.
Maybe just jumping back to the previous question on some of the, on the softness on SPNOI, in Toronto and Montreal. It looks like some of the expenses, in those two markets jumped up quite a bit. Could you maybe provide a little bit more color? Obviously, like you said, on the top line, things are trending in the right direction, but maybe just on the expense side of things. Are you guys seeing something different there causing some of that pressure or?
No. You can see a mild uptick. That's correct. As we come out of the pandemic, we're clearly doing a degree of catch-up, of work that was not being done. Residents weren't comfortable, to a large extent, having work done in the common areas or even in their units during the pandemic. As tensions there have eased, we have seen an uptick in residents wanting to give access and residents being comfortable with seeing us do work in the common areas.
Mm-hmm.
We also rolled out our portal early in the pandemic, which really gives people the ability to put in a service request order 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Our mobile crews that work 24 hours, seven days a week are able to respond to those. It's really just a matter of are people comfortable with us coming in and a bit of catch-up. I don't think there's any alarming trend there.
Okay. No, that's good to hear. I guess thus far, how has the leasing momentum trended, you know, in October and thus far in November? Has it kind of kept pace with what we saw in Q3?
I think what we're saying is, all the trends are positive. You know, we're seeing an uptick in all markets. I would just point to all of the drivers of demand that we talked about in the presentation are all very positive.
Okay. Maybe just switching gears back to the acquisition side of things. You mentioned kind of, you know, given how competitive the current pricing environment is, would you say most of kind of the targets of what you guys are acquiring, you mentioned earlier around the three-ish cap range. Would that be fair? Or are you finding that continuing to compress?
Yeah. Well, you know, we're always trying to price in a perfect world, and we move around these metrics. 150 basis points is spread between the cost of 10-year money cap rate, where we see with confidence 5% bottom line growth. We will move around that target if we think there's more bottom line growth, then we'll wanna increase that spread if we think there's less. That is truly the discipline that we're using. When we leverage cap rate debt levels on acquisitions, we don't try to buy acquisitions with leverage. We want accretive assets day one. It's just that discipline. Really it's a game of numbers. Like the acquisition group this year has again surpassed the underwriting of over 300 deals that we have found of interest.
You know, our success rate is, you know, around under 5%, but it's resulting in some very, very large high quality acquisitions in terms of overall value. We're just highly disciplined.
No, that's helpful. Maybe just one last one for me. Switching to maybe on the regulatory side of things. You know, with the upcoming election next year in Ontario, are you guys thinking potentially that there could be any change? What is your thinking around potential changes on the regulatory front with that election? Or is it too early right now?
I think that the narrative is truly becoming a narrative of supply.
Yeah.
I think the predominant housing dialogue is around homeownership affordability. I think that will definitely drive political attention.
Mm-hmm.
If interest rates are rising and we're seeing some softening of the markets, and they're not overheating the way that they were, we will hopefully find ourselves in a more balanced housing market. I'm optimistic there.
Mm-hmm.
our view is that our engagement with government, which is generally positive, is around being part of the supply equation. That's all I can really say. The political thinking
Okay.
It appears to be around supply, which is positive.
Yeah. Okay. No, for sure. Okay. That's super helpful. I'll turn it back. Thanks, guys.
Thanks.
Thank you, Joanne. Our next question comes from Matt Logan of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead, Matt.
Thank you, and good morning.
Morning, Matt.
Mark, you talked about occupancy, you know, potentially having some room to increase further despite having very little vacancy in the portfolio already. When you look ahead, what needs to happen in CAPREIT's portfolio and perhaps the broader market before the business is back to delivering mid-single-digit organic growth and you're seeing mid-teens spreads on new leases?
Yeah. I think it's back to those drivers of demand again. The under -30s coming back from home, whether it be to go to school or mandated back to work. Immigration, we've talked about. All the drivers around affordability, the impairments to being able to buy a home. All of these things have got to do with how comfortable people are out shopping for an apartment and living in core cities again. The suburban portfolio has been relatively unaffected. It's really core Montreal, core Toronto that have been the most impacted. Okay? The trend on all those drivers is positive. What we've said so many times in the past, there was a housing supply crisis before the pandemic hit, and there's a housing supply crisis that's even more exaggerated today.
Not just because there's more people, but because a lot of the supply has left the market. When we're talking about core Toronto, core Montreal, some extent core Vancouver, those units that were being rented individually, condo units, Airbnb units, a lot of the owners that suffered vacancy there sold their units into end user hands. It's our assertion that the rental pool has actually gotten smaller during the pandemic. As those units have moved into end user hands, it's only exaggerated the going forward demand for apartments. Again, it's really driven by those key drivers that we talked about in the presentation.
It's an interesting comment on the condo transition. When you think about those core markets of Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, like where would they be relative to pre-pandemic levels in terms of demand? Are we kind of 80% there, 90% there? How are we kind of tracking towards a recovery?
I would, if we're just using anecdotal numbers, characterize Montreal as 80% there. Toronto, arguably 90% there, 85% there, somewhere in there. Vancouver, 95%-100% there. Like that we saw people come back the most quickly in Vancouver, which is not surprising. A lot of the under-30s that live in that Vancouver core aren't necessarily kids from B.C.. They've moved out to Vancouver as a place to work. It's Montreal definitely that's returning last. In Toronto, we're seeing again daily improvements in our traffic.
Maybe just changing gears here for a moment. You talked about kind of peeling off individual assets with some density potential and certainly selling at a 1.5 cap sounds like a pretty good idea to me. How big could that, you know, disposition program be? And kind of what's your outlook for, you know, maybe selling some of that density over the next, you know, couple of years?
I would at this stage characterize it as opportunistic. You know, in markets where we've been fortunate enough to have locations that are part of land assemblies, and that has happened to us now a couple of times in Toronto, we are comfortable recognizing that value for unit holders. There are perhaps assets that are no longer strategic because the value add program is highly evolved. If there are cap rates in those markets that we believe are disconnected from value, where we can recycle that capital into more accretive, higher upside real estate investments, we're going to do so. I think the point on our dispositions is just that the value that we've claimed is there. It's there on the development front.
How we recognize that value in the current state, I think it's just sensible to take those extremely low cap rates and recycle them in the marketplace, where we think it's appropriate. I would not characterize this at all as a strategic change. At this stage, I think we would just call it, opportunistic, good real estate, decision making.
In terms of that development potential, like how much of that is reflected in CAPREIT's IFRS NAV? I mean, there's 10,000 units across the portfolio that you could build. Maybe just wondering how much is baked in.
In our case, it's very difficult to truly recognize the value until the entitlement has happened. When we're talking about developing on our own lands, there is clearly cap rate compression just through the general opportunity. When you're in the acquisition market and there's deemed to be development opportunity on some of these transactions that we're seeing, it's baked into the cap rate, okay? You might get a lower cap rate. You won't necessarily get attribution for full value. In CAPREIT's case, we're not recognizing the full value until such time that we get clear entitlement. Otherwise, it's an unfair way to approach things. It's consistent with how our appraisers look at our properties. We take the same general approach.
The exciting thing about the last couple of dispositions is it's clearly demonstrated that, you know, we are achieving values far beyond our IFRS attribution, and that's just a very positive sign. To answer your question specifically, Matt, it's not really until we get to the stage of getting defined entitlement.
Maybe one last one for me, Mark. When you say you're trading some of these assets above your IFRS values, you know, how much higher would those asset sales be relative to where you're carrying them?
Well, again, very cautious about how I say this because we only have a couple. We were certainly compelled because we were approached, and there was a significant spread in those two cases. It's hardly a portfolio review. Again, we were not actively marketing those properties. We are identifying properties that are perhaps non-strategic at this point. We were approached in both cases on those, and it was just too compelling to not do. I've got to add that the developers that assembled the land were able to get far more density with adding our properties than we would have been able to get on a standalone basis.
I became very, very comfortable that I wasn't giving up any value because a land assembly that we have not done doesn't give us the same density and development opportunity that we could have on our own. Again, it's a great testimony to good asset management, good asset allocation. You know, the one deal we've announced is an operating lease, and we're seeing that our operating leases that we have made freehold do have significant value.
That's great color. I appreciate the commentary. I'll turn the call back. Thank you.
Thanks.
Thank you, Matt. Our next question comes from Matt Kornack of National Bank Financial. Your line is open. Please go ahead, Matt.
Good morning. With regards to incentive usage, maybe in your portfolio and then in the broader market, you were able to maintain high occupancy, so I'd assume you're maybe using less incentives at this point. But are you seeing peers who are trying to fill up more aggressively use them, at least now? What do you see in terms of a trajectory on that front?
Great question. It's a hard one to answer. I think that I would characterize our use of incentives as having been wise in looking back. You know, the net financial effect of our incentives, I think we've generally correlated to be about the equivalent of 1% annualized vacancy loss. Scott did those numbers and can provide you more detail. The problem is, in certain core markets, and really Montreal would be a standout here, competitors are all offering incentives. We track that very closely. Like, where we're able to taper off is buildings that we achieved full occupancy on, and regardless of what's happening in the marketplace, we are not using incentives. Where there's a wide use of incentives and we're trying to improve those vacancies, we're still using them.
I would characterize incentives as a tapering at this point, but with us, as we amortize them over a one-year period. They're with us into 2022, but we'll be bleeding off in hopefully Q4 Q3 2022.
Judging from your commentary more broadly, I guess as the demand drivers come back in Montreal, Toronto, those should go to zero and turn into rent growth by sort of mid-
Well, we're achieving both right now. Like, if you look at-
Yeah.
Scott, you may want to talk about this. When you look at what we're doing, look at the quarters, and you can see that rent growth on mark-to-market is definitely there. Somebody tried to get me to give more color on that. I think I gave positive momentum. Yeah, we're very confident. Like, the drivers are returning. I believe, you know, and it's just through, you know, feedback that we've had from real estate brokerage on the private ownership side that a lot of condos went into end user hands. When you look at condo new developments and condo trades in places like Toronto and Vancouver in particular, and to a certain extent, Montreal, they're not being bought by investors anymore. CAD 1,300 a sq ft, you can't make viable rental work en masse.
You know, when we were in the CAD 500 a foot condo acquisition market, you could make CAD 2,500-CAD 3,500 rents work. We're in a very different environment now. As those investors have made the exit, I believe we've got a smaller pool of rental out there. I certainly know we don't have a larger one. Any new purpose-built has not kept pace with the required housing needs.
It makes sense. Yeah, I can draw my line here from 3% at Q1 to 6% to wherever it will be in-
Yeah. October, the trend is still consistent with that. I mean, I think Ontario and actually Halifax is a huge driver, which would have been, you know, not necessarily always the case going back three or five years. B.C. is kind of following and action's positive pretty much across the country.
I guess maybe a last one for me. I mean, some of what's come out of this pandemic may be permanent. What are your thoughts in terms of, again, markets like Halifax or, you've gone into Kelowna, Victoria, where there's going to be some retirement community in place. What are your thoughts? Like, is there some permanence to what we're seeing, and does that impact how you deploy capital going forward?
I think again, we have to wait for the data to support what I'm saying. Anecdotally and instinct-wise, I think the pandemic, it wasn't just CERB that has created this labor shortage, which is really a real thing. I think it was early retirement to a great extent. A lot of people that had contemplated retirement in the next five years escalated those plans to now, okay? That bodes well for retirement communities like Kelowna, like Victoria, B.C., Quebec City, et cetera, okay? On the domestic university front, Canadian kids are definitely wanting to get back to school. When the tidal wave of international students returns, and it is significant, those markets are going to come under even more pressure, okay?
Then the last theme that I don't see changing in the CAPREIT portfolio is the sub-suburbs of the big cities are going to continue to do well because people want more space. We emphasize the space offering at CAPREIT through our townhouses, through our manufactured homes, and through our predominantly suburban portfolio. That thesis is clearly intact and was working extremely well throughout the pandemic. It's when all the market drivers come back that I think that we're really gonna see a change. I think it's safe to, Matt, to use your ruler to draw the line. I'm not sure I'd be using a boomerang right now, but certainly safe to you know, pay attention to those drivers and there's not negativity in the market at this stage.
Okay. Fair enough. Thanks, guys.
Thank you, Matt. Our final question comes from Mike Markidis of Desjardins Capital Markets. Mike, please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody. Just one question for me. Mark, just with your confidence in the outlook, which is I think abundantly clear in your comments, have you at some point given reconsideration to CAPREIT's strategy with respect to in-suite renovation capital, just given the drivers you're seeing? Is affordability still the most pressing issue for you going forward?
Well, I know you can handicap me for my enthusiasm, Mike, because I think most people only know a bit of my enthusiasm, so handicap that, but I am optimistic. I think that the renovation program is clearly gonna stay part of our business plan. You know, the difficulty a lot of apartment owners, not just CAPREIT, but a lot of apartment owners have had during the pandemic and now as we come out of it, is really doing those renovations, practically speaking, getting them actually done. In a market that hasn't returned to full force, where we are still competing for residents, it's only sensible that that program slows. As we come out of things, the demand drivers return. Clearly, that program was sensible.
Even with our renovations and the mark-to-market rents that we hope to achieve, they're still extreme. It's still affordable living. It's highly affordable living in great locations and great quality. I'd just say at the end of the day, CAPREIT has not deviated at all from our business plan of focusing on quality homes for people to live in.
Okay. I guess just to ask maybe differently, relative to the amount of activity you were doing, let's say pre-pandemic and let's say next year or the year after, working it back to that level, depending on how things play out. Just given the returns that you can get, do you see that as being something you wanna amp up further, both from a number of units or spend perspective, or is it something that would just remain consistent with historical?
I think we'd return to historical. A lot's gonna have to do with the labor shortage situation. A lot's gonna have to do with those demand drivers coming full back. There's no deviation, I would say, from our pre-pandemic business plan of you know, providing high-quality homes. A lot of it has to do with our ability to execute, not just the conviction of spending the dollars. My mind is turned to no change in strategy here.
Okay, great. Thanks very much.
Thanks, Mike.
Thank you, Mike. This concludes today's Q&A. I would like to hand you back to Mark Kenney for any closing remarks.
Thank you very much. Thank you to all that took the time to show interest in CAPREIT. We appreciate the support. We appreciate the interest. Any questions, I would direct you to reach out to either Scott or I for clarification. Wishing you all a very nice day and a happy Remembrance Day to come. Thank you.
This concludes the Canadian Apartment Properties REIT third quarter 2021 results conference call. Thank you for joining. We hope you have a great rest of your day. You may now disconnect your line.