Good morning. My name is Leah Well, and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to Canfor and Canfor Pulp's second quarter analyst call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. During this call, Canfor and Canfor Pulp's Chief Financial Officer will be referring to a slide presentation that is available in the investor relations section of the company’s website. Also, the companies would like to point out that this call will include forward-looking statements, so please refer to the press releases for the associated risks of such statements. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Susan Yurkovich [President and Chief Executive Officer] (Canfor Corporation). Please go ahead.
Thanks, Joelle, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining the Canfor and Canfor Pulp Q2 2025 results conference call. I'm going to open up with a few remarks, then I'll turn it over to Stephen Mackie [Chief Operating Officer] (Canfor Corporation) and [Chief Executive Officer] (Canfor Pulp), followed by Pat Elliott [Chief Financial Officer] (Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp). We've also got Kevin Pankratz [Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing] (Canfor Corporation) and Brian Ewen [Vice President of Sales and Marketing] (Canfor Pulp), who will be here with us and available to take questions. While the market conditions remain really challenging, we continue to see improvements in our underlying business supported by our geographic diversification, the capital investments that we've completed over the last few years, and our ongoing commitment to optimizing our portfolio of assets to enhance our financial performance.
To that end, as you know, we made some very tough decisions to close a number of facilities in British Columbia since 2023 due to high costs and ongoing fiber challenges. In addition, this quarter, we announced the closure of our Estill and Darlington facilities in South Carolina due to persistent weak market conditions and sustained losses at those facilities. In combination, these closures have removed more than 2 billion board feet, aligning our production capacity with market demand. While extremely difficult for our people and communities, these decisions will enhance Canfor’s ability to withstand significant trade headwinds, challenging market conditions, and the general uncertainties that are impacting our business at this time. In transforming our business and leveraging our globally diversified lumber platform, we believe we will be able to generate more stable cash flow and enhance our competitiveness over the long term.
Despite the challenging market dynamics we're facing right now, our balance sheet remains strong, allowing us to pursue strategic growth at the bottom of the cycle. This quarter, we are very pleased to announce the fully funded acquisition of three small sawmills from AB Karl Hedin in Sweden. These sawmills have exceptionally high-quality fiber in central Sweden, which is a new operating region for Canfor Vida, and will enhance our ability to access global markets and further reduce our reliance on the U.S. market. Supported by recent capital investments and a strong cultural alignment with the identified synergies, these sawmills will complement Vida’s operating platform once the acquisition, which is subject to normal closing conditions, is completed later this year. Following this acquisition, our lumber platform will include approximately 35% of our lumber production based in the United States.
South, 35% in Sweden, and 30% in Western Canada, providing meaningful geographic, product, and market diversification for the company. With respect to duties and tariffs, we, of course, have been expecting the increase in duty rates that come into effect this week and have been adjusting our sales strategy accordingly. However, there remains significant uncertainty regarding tariffs and the ongoing Section 232 investigation in the U.S., as well as the broader trade environment. We continue to monitor these developments closely and will adjust our plans to mitigate the impacts to the greatest extent possible. Notwithstanding this uncertainty, we are well positioned to navigate these challenges, supported by the actions that we’ve taken over the last several years to build out our low-cost, globally diversified lumber platform. I’d now like to turn it over to Stephen Mackie [Chief Operating Officer] (Canfor Corporation) and [Chief Executive Officer] (Canfor Pulp) to provide an overview of Canfor Pulp.
Thanks, Sue, and good morning, everyone. Canfor Pulp generated modest EBITDA in the second quarter, with results reflecting the impact of lower sales realizations due to persistent economic and global trade uncertainty, as well as a 4% stronger Canadian dollar. Weak demand and elevated global pulp inventories contributed to a sharp decline in pricing, particularly in China, where prices fell 7% in the quarter. However, the full impact of these price declines will not be evident in our sales realizations until the third quarter. While pulp pricing in China has stabilized recently, we anticipate weak market fundamentals to persist throughout the third quarter. While our paper business performed reasonably well, we also saw a sharp decline in sales realizations in the second quarter, reflecting the stronger Canadian dollar, weaker pricing in North America due to ongoing tariffs and economic uncertainty, and softer demand driven by the same economic conditions.
Notwithstanding the current macroeconomic challenges, Canfor Pulp continues to focus on areas within our control. As an organization, we are adapting to align with current market conditions. We've made progress on improving our productivity and reliability. We currently have an adequate chip supply to support our operating footprint, and we are intentionally focused on improving our cost structure. While market fundamentals are challenging in the short term, we believe our specialty product focus and unique fiber characteristics, combined with an enhanced focus on operational execution and disciplined cost management, will allow us to navigate the current market dynamics. I’ll now turn it over to Pat Elliott [Chief Financial Officer] (Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp) to provide an overview of our financial results.
Thanks, Stephen, and good morning, everyone. In my comments this morning, I’ll speak to our second quarter financial highlights, a summary of which is included in our overview slide presentation located in the investor relations section of the Canfor website. Our lumber business generated adjusted EBITDA of $62 million in the second quarter, $1 million higher than the prior quarter. Adjusted EBITDA includes the restructuring charges following the announced closures of Estill and Darlington that Susan mentioned earlier. Excluding these one-time items, our lumber business generated EBITDA of $68 million in the second quarter, up approximately $8 million from Q1, supported by solid earnings in Europe and continued ramp-up of low-cost capacity in the U.S. South. While global lumber markets remain challenging in the short term, the transformation of our lumber business in recent years has supported an improved cost structure and stronger profitability.
Our lumber business generated EBITDA, including one-time items, of approximately $130 million in the first half of 2025. While market conditions appear challenging through the balance of the year, our lumber platform is well positioned to capitalize on stronger lumber prices over the medium to long term, supported by our geographic diversification and low operating costs.
On a consolidated basis, capital expenditures were approximately $61 million in the second quarter, including approximately $5 million for Canfor Pulp. Following completion of several major capital investments in recent years, we are anticipating significantly lower capital spending starting this year, with approximately $240 million projected in our lumber business. Of this amount, approximately $160 million was spent in the first half of the year. For Canfor Pulp, we are currently forecasting capital spending of $45 million in 2025, including capitalized statements. Following completion of our recently announced tax initiative in Sweden later this year, our balance sheet remains solid, supported by our improved operating platform, a seasonal working capital reduction in Sweden, and an expected tax refund in Canada. In addition, we anticipate Canfor will continue to allocate a modest amount of capital to opportunistically repurchase shares throughout the year under its normal course issuer bid.
With that, we're now ready to take questions from analysts.
Thank you. We will now take questions from financial analysts. If you have a question, please press *1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift your receiver and then press *1. If at any time you wish to cancel your question, please press *2. Please press *1 now if you have a question. There will be a brief pause while participants register for questions. Thank you for your patience. Your first question comes from Ketan Mamtora [Director of Forest Products Equity Research] (CIBC Capital Markets). Your line is now open.
Thank you and good morning. Maybe to start with, can you talk about if you saw any buy ahead of, you know, kind of duties going higher, you know, on the Western Spruce-Pine-Fir side?
Kevin, do you want to take that?
Sure. Yeah. The buying behavior has actually been relatively steady, spiked through June and July, and there might be a little bit of pre-positioning, but quite frankly, customers are more or less keeping inventories adequately stocked in order just to meet the just-in-time demand. I haven’t seen any material buying increases.
Mr. Kevin, is it safe to say that inventories, you don't see kind of any material buildup in inventories?
I think our customers’ inventory positions are actually relatively balanced. Like I said, with all the uncertainty that they’re facing, I think they’re just going to be buying as they need on a just-in-time basis.
That's helpful.
That’s helpful. Just one other question — with duties going higher here, I’m curious about your approach to production, particularly in light of softer demand. Especially at startup, is your approach to pass through the entire filed duty increase? Can you give us some sense of how you all are approaching this?
Yeah, good morning. Stephen Mackie. From a production perspective, we’ve obviously made some very difficult decisions over the last couple of years when we rationalized some of the higher-cost capacity we had in Canada. Our expectation is to run, and that’s certainly our plan — to operate through the cycle. We think we’re well positioned with limited exposure overall if you look broadly across our global platform to the U.S. There’s lots of volatility and things can change, and we’ll be responsive to the market dynamics that we see out there, but our plan is to operate.
Understood. That's very helpful. I'm passing the cue. Good luck.
Your next question comes from Sean Steuart with TD Cowen. Your line is now open.
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I want to start with Europe. The pending acquisition there looks like it’s on attractive terms, and the margin profile remains really resilient. I’d be interested in your perspective on other M&A opportunities in Europe. Is the interest still specific to Sweden, or is there any opportunity to expand beyond Scandinavia for growth opportunities there?
Yeah, thanks, Sean. It’s Susan. We really like the Hedin acquisition — they’re really good mills. They fit well into the Vida platform, and there’s a lot of opportunity for us. It’s mostly going into the European market and some in Japan, so it’s really good for us. We’ll be looking at integrating those three facilities into our operations. Of course, we’re always keeping our eye open, but this does open up another region for us, because these assets are located in central Sweden, which is a different operating area for Canfor Vida.
I see that as, I guess, the appetite for further growth initiatives there. Your balance sheet’s still in relatively strong shape. Are you content to integrate this deal and sit tight, or if other opportunities were to come forward, would you consider them at this point?
Sean, you know, we’re always looking for things. We’re looking for things all the time — we’re looking at opportunities across our platform. Right now, we’ve got a job to do to integrate these assets into our Vida platform, and we’re going to do that. But we’ll keep our eyes open.
Okay, thanks for that. Susan, maybe a question you don’t want to answer, but I just want to get your thoughts on the trade evolution between Canada and the U.S. for lumber. How optimistic are you that lumber can be included in a broader U.S.-Canada negotiation? Do you have any thoughts you’d share on quota being a potential facet of a possible deal?
Yeah, sure. I think what we’ve heard are signals from the federal government — important signals — that lumber is a priority along with steel, aluminum, autos, and a couple of other sectors. We appreciate that. This is a really important industry to Canada. These are incredibly complex multilateral discussions, and my strong hope is that lumber is included in them. If we can achieve an agreement, I would very much like for lumber to be part of that resolution. As you know, this is a long-standing issue, and as far as the form of that agreement, I think we’ll leave it to our very competent negotiators, including the Senior Negotiator for Canada, Kirsten Hillman, who’s a very seasoned negotiator and our Ambassador to the U.S.
I think they’re going to need some flexibility to try and reach a resolution. I’m not sure what form that resolution will take, but we’ve certainly been working across the industry and are ready to support the federal government in finding a resolution on this file for lumber.
Thank you for that detail. That's all I have for now. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Hamir Patel with CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Hi, good morning. Kevin, I was wondering if you could give us a sense of how lumber demand has fared with your key R&R customers this year, both in North America and in Europe?
Yeah, great to have you here. Thanks for the question. Actually, R&R demand, from our experience, has been relatively steady, and I would say year to date, compared to last year, it’s been relatively flat. However, we did see a bit of a slowdown in early July, but since then, there’s been some pickup, which I think is really positive in the marketplace. As for Europe, I think they’re experiencing the same thing — the DIY segment has been performing relatively steadily and keeping pace year over year, which is actually much better than what we’re seeing in new home construction, which remains soft.
Thanks for that, Kevin. Susan, I had a question for you. Assuming the current trade situation continues, and given the large reductions to your B.C. platform over the past year, when you think about the difference between your combined anti-dumping and countervailing duty rate and the rate for West Fraser, would you expect that spread to narrow when the AR7 preliminary rates come out?
Yes.
Okay. Would that sort of play out over two years, or it'll be a big step down, you think, in AR7, just given the geographic?
There will be a step down. Yes, we will expect that that spread will be diminished.
Okay. All right. That's all I have. I'll turn it over. Thanks.
Your next question comes from Matthew McKellar with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Matthew McKellar, your line is open.
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First, with the changes to your Southern Yellow Pine portfolio and the current market backdrop, how should we be thinking about SYP business in the second half? What kind of reduction in fixed costs do you associate with those two most recent mill closures? Thanks.
Maybe Kevin, you want to talk about the markets and then Stephen?
Okay. I think our outlook for fitness will be actually pretty, pretty flat, I think, quarter over quarter. Stephen?
Yeah, I think what you can expect from our shipments now is that we’ll obviously see the impact of the Estill and Darlington closures with those capacity reductions. However, those will be offset to a large degree by the ramp-up in capacity from some of our recent capital investments in the Southeast U.S., including the modernization of our Urbana facilities and the construction of our new greenfield facility at Axis. Both of those operations are progressing through their startup phases very well. We’re also looking at some potential incremental capacity additions at a couple of our other facilities. Overall, I think we’ll largely offset the closures and be reasonably flat on an annualized basis.
Okay, thanks for that detail. Next, you talked about adjusting your sales strategy following the implementation of higher duties. I guess things could change here, but based on your expectations for demand and pricing, what percentage of Canadian-produced wood do you expect to sell into the U.S. under a status quo scenario — where higher anti-dumping duties remain in place, final countervailing duties align with preliminary results, and there are no incremental Section 232 tariffs? Maybe to rephrase it, how do you expect the geographic sales mix for lumber to evolve over the next couple of quarters?
Yeah, thanks, Matt. The situation is quite fluid, as you can imagine. A lot is going to depend on how pricing reacts in the U.S. market versus the Canadian market. We have the flexibility to navigate through that, and it’s something we’ll be monitoring closely on a daily basis. It’s difficult to give an exact figure because, throughout this process over the past couple of months, market conditions have shifted week to week depending on demand, liquidity, and financial results. So, it’s hard to pinpoint an exact number since we’re not dealing with a fixed environment.
Okay. That's fair. Last from me, could you just please reflect us on the most impactful initiatives you have underway to improve the cost structure at Canfor Pulp? Thank you.
Yeah, thanks, Matt. For the most part, the single biggest thing we can do is continue to improve our reliability and overall operational performance — uptime and execution. I think the team is highly focused on running the facilities with greater stability. We’ve strengthened our fiber supply and currently have sufficient fiber to support our operating footprint, so we’re in good shape there. We’re seeing continued modest progress downward on that cost curve within the fiber supply, and from here, it’s really about operational reliability and stability. Our cost structure can be competitive when we run — and run well — and that’s the team’s focus, particularly as we move through the third quarter and into the fourth, with a scheduled turnaround in Q4. That’s what I’d say about that.
Thanks for all the details. I'll pass it back.
Thank you. There are no further questions. I'll now turn it over to Susan for closing comments.
Thanks very much for joining us. We'll see you next quarter.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your line.