Good morning. My name is Michelle, and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to the Canfor and Canfor Pulp third quarter analyst call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. During this call, Canfor and Canfor Pulp's Chief Financial Officer will be referring to a slide presentation that is available in the investor relations section of the company's website. Also, the companies would like to point out that this call will include forward-looking statements, so please refer to the press releases for the associated risks of such statements. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Don Kayne, Canfor Corporation's President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, Mr. Kayne.
Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining the Canfor and Canfor Pulp Q3 2022 Results Conference Call. I'll make a few comments before I turn things over to Kevin Edgson, Canfor Pulp's President and CEO, and Pat Elliott, Chief Financial Officer of Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp and our Senior Vice President of Sustainability. In addition, we are joined by Kevin Pankratz, Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing. The third quarter resulted in reduced margins in our lumber business as prices moved lower throughout the period. However, we continue to benefit from the diversification of our earnings stream as Europe and the U.S. South generated solid returns. Our strategic growth in regions that have strong and competitive fiber baskets, the U.S. South, Sweden, and Alberta, will allow us to generate more consistent earnings throughout the cycle.
In British Columbia, the allowable annual cut continues to decrease due to the mountain pine beetle damage, government policy decisions, species at risk, and wildfires. We continue to assess our operating rates against the available fiber supply in the region and remain focused on producing higher value products and managing production to meet market demand in order to maximize the value of every consumed log. As a result, Canfor took operational downtime throughout the third quarter, with the majority of our B.C. sawmills continuing to operate today on a reduced basis. I want to acknowledge our employees for their ongoing hard work and dedication. Through the downtime, we have worked to support our employees and thank them for their flexibility. U.S. lumber demand in the repair and remodel sector remained solid throughout the quarter.
However, with rising interest rates, ongoing inflationary pressures, and reduced housing affordability, slowing new home construction activity in the U.S. led to lower demand in that segment. In Europe, our lumber business generated solid financial results in the third quarter, despite the impact of seasonal downtime, principally in July. Rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and soaring energy costs in Europe have, however, contributed to a sharp decline in lumber consumption in recent months, particularly for the retail sector. Even though pricing is anticipated to remain relatively solid, we will continue to evaluate market activity levels and manage production as necessary through the fourth quarter to align with current demand. To date, the mills have taken minimal down.
Notwithstanding the current macroeconomic uncertainty, North American lumber prices continue to trade above pre-pandemic levels, supported by lean inventories throughout the supply chain, steady underlying demand in the repair and remodel sector, and pent-up demand for new home construction in the United States. While inflationary pressures are anticipated to persist in the near term, we remain focused on growing our lumber business on a global basis, currently through three major capital projects in the U.S. South. I will now turn it over to Kevin to provide an overview of Canfor Pulp.
Thank you, Don, and good morning, everyone. Canfor Pulp had a strong third quarter with solid financial results driven by the sustained strength in global pulp pricing and an improved operational performance. This contributed to a 4% increase in pulp production despite planned maintenance downtime at Northwood and Intercon during the quarter. As previously discussed on these calls, the management team at Canfor Pulp remains focused on improving asset reliability and running the mills more consistently. We have seen some positive momentum in this regard over the last few months, and I expect continued progress over the coming quarters. Sourcing economic fiber remains a challenge in B.C. due to the decreasing residual chip supply and inflationary cost pressures on pulp logs. As a result, we recently announced extended downtime at our Intercon mill in order to better balance our chip supply for the winter.
Transportation networks improved through the third quarter, and in general, we're able to support our production volume. Our Taylor mill continues to be faced with supply chain challenges, and at this time, we are not anticipating a restart before the spring of 2023. While we are encouraged by recent operational performance, we are prepared to adjust future operating plans to match available logistics and economically available fiber. We appreciate the resilience and dedication of our employees as we manage through these headwinds. I will now turn it over to Pat to provide an overview of our financial results.
Thanks, Kevin, and good morning. The Canfor and Canfor Pulp quarterly results were released yesterday afternoon and come together with our overview slide presentation in the investor relations section of the respective company's websites. In my comments this morning, I'll speak to quarterly financial highlights, a summary of which is included in our overview slide presentation. Our lumber business generated operating income of CAD 102 million in the third quarter, which included a net duty recovery of CAD 98 million and a CAD 90 million inventory write-down related to logs in British Columbia. Results reflected a steady decline in global lumber prices throughout the quarter, as well as the effect of significant operational downtime in Western Canada.
As Don mentioned, we continue to realize the benefit of our diversification strategy with our European operations contributing CAD 57 million in cash earnings in the third quarter, despite taking its traditional summer downtime. Looking ahead, we anticipate a more challenging fourth quarter reflecting current lumber market conditions as well as the impact of downtime on unit manufacturing costs. While we expect B.C. stumpage rates to fall in the fourth quarter, it would likely take much of the quarter before we realize those lower prices into our results. Our pulp business generated operating income of CAD 19 million in the third quarter, an improvement of CAD 27 million quarter-over-quarter. As Kevin mentioned, third quarter results benefited from significantly higher sales realizations and improved productivity, offset in part by increased fiber costs.
Despite significant challenges in recent quarters, Canfor Pulp has maintained its strong balance sheet and remains focused on improving productivity, closely managing inflationary cost pressures, and optimizing the available transportation and economically available fiber. Capital expenditures were approximately CAD 139 million in the third quarter, including approximately CAD 29 million for Canfor Pulp. We project capital spend of approximately CAD 450 million for our lumber business in 2022 and approximately CAD 110 million for Canfor Pulp. Looking ahead to 2023, we are currently forecasting a capital spend of approximately CAD 500 million for our lumber business, including the remaining spend on our DeRidder greenfield sawmill, which is currently on track for completion in the first quarter of 2023. We also anticipate being modestly active on Canfor's share buyback program in the fourth quarter.
As Canfor Pulp continues their focus on asset reliability and productivity improvement, our expectation for capital spending in 2023 is CAD 60 million-CAD 80 million, depending on market conditions. With that, Don, I'll turn the call back over to you.
Thanks, Pat. Operator, we're now ready to take calls from or questions, excuse me, from analysts.
Thank you. We will now take questions from financial analysts. If you have a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift your receiver and then press star one. If at any time you wish to cancel your question, please press star two. Please press star one now if you have a question. There will be a brief pause while participants register for questions. Thank you for your patience. Our first question comes from Mark Wilde of Bank of Montreal. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning, Don, Kevin, Pat.
Good morning, Mark.
Morning.
First question I have, Don, if you would just give us a little more color on the European lumber situation because it sounds like you might be taking a little less downtime than you were pointing to, a month or two ago.
Yeah, for sure, Mark, and that's correct, first of all. You know, we anticipated initially that we would be taking a little more than we've had to. We've been fortunate despite the challenges in our key market in the U.K. We've been able to do a real good job. The guys who are on the ground here have done a really good job along with our marketing group in Vancouver to move a lot of that volume quicker and more expeditiously than we would have thought to alternative markets. We've been real surprised, and that's one of the reasons why we would have done that.
Okay. Is it possible, Don, to get some sense of how much price has moved in the European market? I know it moves differently than it does here in North America, but if we could just get some sense of price movement.
Yeah. Kevin, you wanna talk to that a little bit?
Yeah, for sure, Mark. I would say in that 10%-12% range down is like quarter-over-quarter. There was a bit more pressure towards the end of Q3, but that's in that range is sort of what we experienced.
One thing, Mark, just to quickly add. As you know, in terms of our European business, and you've heard us speak about this before, but one of the reasons that, you know, and I keep saying this, but I'll say it again. One of the reasons why we focus heavily on Europe, and we have for a while, is the flexibility that it presents us that we often don't see that in other markets. We really see that, so we're able to move around as we see fit to take advantage of market levels as we see fit, right? It's really that part of our acquisition has really turned out at least as good or better than we ever expected.
Yeah. Just one more on Europe. What's your expectations as we look into 2023 in terms of European volume into the North American market? I mean, demand is down in both markets, but the euro is quite weak now, which you might think would push a little more volume over toward North America.
Yeah. I'll let Kevin talk about that for sure. You can add on, Kevin. I mean, yeah, that's clearly what we're seeing, and that's one of the alternatives that has come about here, you know, over the last little while here. Yeah, certainly we see an increase in North America. To what degree? I'd say a fairly good degree, actually, and it's going to help us a lot in North America with some of the B.C. shuts that we've been experiencing. Kevin, you know way more than I do.
Yeah. Well, just what I'm hearing there too, Mark, is that underlying demand is pretty good. The big issue that they're dealing with over in Europe is really around energy and really how it's gonna play out over the next, you know, six to eight months. I think if energy prices come down to a certain degree, then you could see potentially a pickup in some, you know, European demand. Short term, for sure, I think you can expect to see increased volumes coming into North America and actually other markets as well.
Okay. All right. You know, the other question I have is just on capital allocation and in the share repurchase. You know, if I go back to 2018-
Yes.
You bought a couple million shares up at CAD 28. Today the stock is CAD 20 a share. You've got over CAD 10 a share in net cash and CAD 7 a share in deposits. It looks like a far better value than it was in 2018. I'm just curious as to, you know, why we're not seeing a little more activity there. It didn't look like there was anything in the third quarter.
Pat, why don't you talk to Mark a little bit about that, and we can maybe talk also about overall capital allocation and what we're thinking.
Yeah. Sure, Mark. Yeah, I'm not sure I can reconcile the math to 2018 directly. What I would say is, you know, we've kind of been thinking that there's a pullback coming. I don't think that's a big surprise. We've made some significant capital investments, three big projects, as Don mentioned, in the U.S. South because of the $500 million. I just think, you know, we kind of took a little bit of pause and assess how things are gonna play out. We do have a very strong balance sheet, and we want to have a very strong balance sheet, but we also wanna be able to build and diversify our business, either through organic growth or M&A.
You know, frankly, I think arriving into a weak market with a balance sheet like we have is gonna be a strategic advantage. You know, we're always gonna do this on a modest basis anyway. You know some of the background on that and liquidity in our stock. As I said in my comments, I think we'll be active again, but it'll remain a modest part of our overall capital allocation.
Yeah. For sure, absolutely. If you look at it overall, like we do, you know, and we've been feeling this way for a while now, probably, latter half of the second quarter, that demand's gonna temper quite a bit due to affordability and probably carry on through a good part of 2023. We're trying to be extremely disciplined here and, you know, call it conservative, whatever you want, or patience around the fact that we do believe we're gonna get opportunities here over the next 12-18 months at a far better value than we've sort of seen in the last 24 months.
Okay. Just, you know, one more, Pat. You mentioned that those log prep costs in B.C. take a while to work their way through your inventories. Can you give us just a little more color on that?
Yeah, no, for sure. We basically Q3, Q4, you know, Q3 log cost were up CAD 35 a cubic meter, rough and dirty. They came down roughly that in Q4. That lags probably two to three months, something like that, into Q1. Yeah. You know, we're just gonna probably drop in the order of CAD 5 a cubic meter, right? You know, lags probably two to three months, something like that. Of course it depends on how much you harvest, but that would be our guess right now.
Okay. All right. That's helpful. I'll turn it over.
Thank you. The next question comes from Paul Quinn, RBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks very much. Morning, guys.
Morning.
Morning, Paul.
Yeah, just trying to understand this European dynamic with lumber prices and log prices. You know, what I've seen in the past is, you know, if lumber prices come down, log prices are coming down as well, so that margin sort of seems a little bit more stable than what you'd typically expect to experience in North America. Is that the case right now?
I think, you know, for the most part, I mean, we always try to compare it a little bit, you know, to the Western Canadian and Southern Yellow Pine. In that vein, certainly European log prices are up, but they've been definitely manageable for sure. Most of that increase is due to some of the pressure around pulp and energy primarily, which is really, you know, obviously as you know, we've seen significant increases in energy costs, particularly in Europe, all across Europe. You know, again, it's you know, obviously it's a bit more of a change there than the past, but it's still definitely manageable and not anywhere near like it is here in North America.
Okay. You know, maybe over on Canfor Pulp side, just, you know, the B.C. log supply continues to decline. Just wondering, when you look at, you know, future chip availability for the Canfor Pulp mills, does that equate to all the existing mills that you're operating right now? Or is it more prudent to take one mill out of the quiver as opposed to taking some rotating downtime to increase the log and chip?
Thank you for the question, Paul. I think we all can recognize the fact that there have been both indefinite and permanent curtailments within B.C. on the sawmilling side. There have been a number of pulp assets that have likewise been either curtailed permanently or indefinitely. It would be my opinion that for the industry is not yet done. As to where we fit will be a function of how well our assets run and what the fiber supply is in our region versus other regions within B.C.
Okay. Just maybe on a strategic thinking here, there's a couple of pulp mills that are available in Eastern Canada. Is that something that you guys would be interested in growing that pulp business on the Canfor Pulp side?
Well, I think today our primary focus is ensuring that the assets we have are well capitalized and running well before we start looking at expansion. At this point, I don't think that that's really a key focus for us.
All righty. That's all I had. Good. Best of luck.
Thanks, Paul.
Thank you. There are no further questions. I will turn the call over to Don Kayne for closing comments. Go ahead.
All right. Thanks, operator, and thanks everyone for joining the call, and we'll look forward to talking to you as the year progresses here. Thanks.
This does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.