Cineplex Inc. (TSX:CGX)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Feb 11, 2022

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Cineplex's Q4 and year-end 2021 earnings call. If you would like to ask a question at the end of the presentation, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mahsa Rejali, Executive Director, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Mahsa Rejali
VP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations, Cineplex Inc

Good morning and welcome. With me today is Ellis Jacob, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Gord Nelson, our Chief Financial Officer. Before I turn over the call to Ellis, let me remind you that certain statements being made are forward-looking and subject to various risks and uncertainties. Such forward-looking statements are based on management's beliefs and assumptions regarding information currently available.

Actual results could differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause results to vary include, among other things, the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, adverse factors generally encountered in the film exhibition industry, risks associated with other national and world events, discovery of undisclosed material liabilities, and general economic conditions. Following today's remarks, we will close the call with our question-and-answer period. I will now turn the call over to Ellis Jacob.

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

Thank you, Mahsa. Good morning and welcome to our Q4 and year-end 2021 conference call. We are glad you could join us today. As I address the quarterly results, I am pleased to say that Cineplex and the exhibition industry continues to make significant progress in recovering from the effects of the pandemic.

Since reopening in the summer of 2021, releases like Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, No Time to Die, and Dune exceeded industry expectations. The highly anticipated release of Spider-Man: No Way Home was a huge success. The film generated over $1 billion of global box office within two weeks of its release and has grossed $750 million domestically to date.

While government-mandated restrictions and closures in December prevented us from fully capitalizing on this demand, there is no question that Cineplex is poised for a strong recovery, and our box office performance will mirror other jurisdictions once our theaters resume operations at full capacity.

While 2022 started off with some challenges, the fact remains that the year ahead is bright. The recent mandated closures were temporary, and we are delighted to see that all of our theaters and entertainment venues are now open nationwide, although capacity and other restrictions remain in certain provinces.

Despite mandated restrictions, in Q4 2021, we delivered our strongest quarter in two years and made significant strides towards profitability and cash flow generation. What's really impressive is that these results were achieved even though operating restrictions were imposed on us during our busiest box office period.

This momentum is highly encouraging, and with the recent closures now behind us and restrictions continuing to ease, we are thrilled about the year ahead and our path towards recovery. With Gord speaking to our financial results shortly, I want to focus my remarks on three main areas. First, the positive momentum seen when our venues are open. Secondly, our proactive efforts to reinstate financial stability and advance growth initiatives. Lastly, to reaffirm our solid position for a promising recovery across all of our businesses.

To speak to my first point, although most of our venues were closed for the first half of 2021, once we were able to reopen from mid-July to early December of last year, we saw momentum in all of our lines of business. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings established an all-time record for a Labor Day release in September.

No Time to Die brought out an audience that mirrored the demographics makeup of our 2019 base by bringing back in our adults. Since reopening in July, our box office numbers were progressively approaching pre-pandemic levels, with October reaching 80% of the same month in 2019. These results had us excited about December, which included the highly anticipated releases of Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Matrix Resurrections, and Sing 2.

However, as we all know, during December, provincially mandated capacity restrictions and closures were reinstated in certain provinces. For the first time ever, the operating restrictions also included a ban on concession sales in some provinces, including our largest market, Ontario. These constraints were intensified as Omicron numbers increased and ultimately culminated in closures of our theaters and LBE locations in certain markets from mid-December to early February 2022.

The timing of the operating restrictions was extremely unfortunate. To provide some background, the last two weeks of December account for a material portion of our business, typically delivering around 30% of our Q4 box office. These restrictions prevented us from realizing the full benefits of Spider-Man: No Way Home, which had the second biggest domestic opening weekend of all time and the biggest December opening ever.

We know from our own box office results prior to the recent closures, as well as box office results from our peers in the United States, that guests want to be back in our theaters. In spite of these restrictions, we still delivered strong revenue growth, welcoming 10.2 million guests to our theaters during the Q4 . We also achieved an all-time quarterly record BPP of CAD 12.29. While the CPP for Q4 2021 was significantly impacted by restrictions on concession sales, we still set an all-time annual record CPP of CAD 7.93.

In addition to the exhibition business, our other businesses also contributed positively to our overall results. We significantly improved our net loss during the quarter to CAD 21.8 million from CAD 230 million in Q4 2020, and improved our adjusted EBITDA to CAD 20.2 million from an adjusted EBITDA loss of CAD 65.9 million in Q4 2020. Through a combination of attendance growth and working capital management, we generated positive net cash from operating activities of CAD 27.5 million in the Q4 compared to a CAD -61 million in Q4 2020.

We were also pleased to see a positive average monthly net cash contribution from the Q1 since the pandemic began. I would now like to talk about our proactive efforts to reinstate financial stability and advance growth initiatives in the past year. While we hope to avoid further operating restrictions, we were prepared for and anticipated possible challenges arising from a new variant.

We had contingency plans in place well before the first case of the new variant was recorded in Canada. With the onset of Omicron, we took proactive steps to reinstate financial stability. Gord will provide a more fulsome financial update in a moment, but some of the actions taken include a continued focus on minimizing cash burn, cost management across all business lines, and adding liquidity, which included government subsidies where possible.

Moreover, we worked with our supportive lenders and obtained the continued suspension of financial covenant testing until the Q2 of 2022. This continued support speaks volumes about our lenders' confidence in our business plan and our expected recovery. We have taken significant measures to manage the financial uncertainties created by COVID-19 and believe in the strength of our industry as the pandemic gets under control and we see a return to normalcy.

Looking back on the quarter, we achieved encouraging results, which would not have been possible without the dedication of our amazing employees across the Cineplex ecosystem. With all our theaters and entertainment venues now open nationwide and restrictions easing in many provinces, we are turning yet another corner on the road to recovery and anticipate further upward trajectory in the months to come.

Over the course of the pandemic, we continue to advance our growth initiatives, and during the Q4 , we announced the launch of Scene+. This enhanced rewards program brings together two of Canada's favorite loyalty programs, SCENE and Scotia Rewards. Scene+ members will still enjoy the much-loved features and rewards from movies, entertainment, and dining, while also adding the option of earning and redeeming points for travel, shopping, and banking.

This strategic alignment creates huge opportunities for the future of the Scene+ program and enables our team to reach and entertain even more guests and movie lovers than ever before. In addition, during the summer of 2021, we launched our entertainment subscription program, CineClub, which provides members with benefits in our theaters, location-based entertainment venues, and the Cineplex Store. So far, CineClub has received a positive response from our guests despite restrictions and closures.

We have always strived to provide our guests an exceptional entertainment experience at great value while driving attendance and increasing moviegoing frequency, and CineClub does just that. We have also worked hard to engage with our guests and provide offerings through our digital movie platform, the Cineplex Store, and food delivery through SkipTheDishes and Uber Eats.

The Cineplex Store, which differentiates us from our peers, benefited from a number of VOD releases during the year, offering guests the chance to view content directly in their homes. This was especially important during the closure periods as it enabled us to engage with our guests at a time when their out-of-home entertainment options were limited. We are also exploring alternative content offerings, including the expansion of our distribution business for select feature films in Canada.

Branded Cineplex Pictures, we see significant growth opportunities where we can leverage Cineplex assets and database to promote and find new audiences. This is in addition to our ongoing efforts to increase and diversify content through international titles where we're experiencing tremendous success. In fact, three of the top 10 highest-grossing Punjabi films in Cineplex history were released in 2021, which indicates significant post-pandemic growth and opportunity for Cineplex going forward.

Last year, we opened three new VIP locations, including our 25th VIP cinema in Calgary, which opened its doors in November. We also opened one Playdium location in Nova Scotia and two new locations of The Rec Room in British Columbia and Ontario in 2021. With these additions, we now have location-based entertainment venues open coast to coast and can offer our guests even more options when it comes to spending their leisure time with us.

Lastly, I want to discuss and reaffirm our solid position for a promising recovery across all of our businesses, including the encouraging results from our non-exhibition business units. During the Q4 , P1AG's adjusted EBITDA increased by 27% to CAD 4 million compared to pre-pandemic Q4 2019, mainly driven by customer shifts and cost management.

Our location-based entertainment business continues to perform well with an adjusted store-level EBITDA of CAD 4.6 million in Q4 2021 compared to a loss of CAD 2.8 million in the prior year. Going forward, we expect to reap benefits from the new locations that were built over the last two years. Cineplex Media is also showing encouraging signs of ramping up as client confidence returns and companies build out their advertising budgets for 2022.

Our team at Cineplex Digital Media continues to be busy with the rollout of new products and services which optimize digital signage to expand offerings for our clients and unlock value from data and experience design services. As we look forward, we believe we can generate high-margin opportunities from these initiatives.

Looking ahead, it is clear the global film industry is poised for a big return as restrictions are lifted and content supply remains strong. Our studio partners are gravitating towards an exclusive theatrical window for blockbuster titles, and there's a general acknowledgement in the industry about the importance of the big screen in a film's success.

Theatrical exhibition has and always will play a significant role in elevating content to realize its maximum potential, from box office revenues to associated downstream revenues, including merchandising sales and the promotion of studio streaming platforms. With that said, we are particularly encouraged by this year's film slate, which is very promising and includes the following anticipated titles, just to name a few.

For the remainder of Q1 2022, we have Death on the Nile and Marry Me releasing today ahead of Valentine's Day, Uncharted later this month, and the highly anticipated release of The Batman in early March. For the remainder of the year, we have Morbius, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Top Gun: Maverick, Jurassic World Dominion, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Avatar: The Way of Water, and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.

We believe that after experimentation with various release strategies over the past year and a half, this extensive list of titles reaffirms the commitment of studios to an exclusive theatrical release window. Finally, before I pass things to Gord, I want to provide a brief update on the ongoing litigation with Cineworld. As many of you heard, the Ontario Superior Court of Justice issued a judgment for CAD 1.24 billion in favor of Cineplex.

While Cineworld has filed their notice of intent to appeal, we remain confident in the court's decision. We will continue pursuing compensation for what we believe to have been a wrongful repudiation of the agreement between Cineplex and Cineworld. The bottom line is that Cineplex has an exciting year and future ahead. We have applied financial discipline, liquidity initiatives, and cost control measures throughout the pandemic and are confident in our financial position to withstand any further pressures in the near term.

We have implemented operating efficiencies and laid the groundwork for recovery. We have done all of this while staying committed to the health and safety of our employees and guests. Our team has proven that we can safely operate during the pandemic, and we are thrilled to welcome guests back to our venues once again. Moviegoing is here to stay, and Cineplex's future is strong. With that, I will turn things over to Gord.

Gord Nelson
CFO, Cineplex Inc

Thanks, Ellis. I am pleased to present a condensed summary of the Q4 results for Cineplex Inc. For further reference, our financial statements and MD&A have been filed on SEDAR and are also available on our investor relations website at cineplex.com. Our MD&A and earnings press release include a fulsome narrative on the operational results, so I will focus on highlighting and quantifying some of the key operating results and provide commentary on cost control, liquidity, and outlook.

As Ellis mentioned, our Q4 operating results were materially impacted by provincially mandated closures, capacity restrictions, and for the first time, restrictions on concession sales in certain provinces. These restrictions became effective during the last half of December, when we typically generate about 30% of Q4's box office volume. Despite these operating restrictions, we did report our strongest results since the beginning of the pandemic.

Total revenues increased to CAD 300 million from CAD 52.5 million in the prior year. Net loss improved to CAD 21.8 million from CAD 230.4 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA increased to CAD 20.2 million from CAD -65.9 million in 2020. In addition, we reported our Q1 since the beginning of the pandemic without a net cash burn.

In our film exhibition and content segment, attendance increased to 10.2 million in the current quarter as compared to 0.8 million in the prior year. We reported a record quarterly BPP of CAD 12.29, and our CPP of CAD 7.49, although strong, was negatively impacted by the restrictions on theater food sales in certain provinces.

While we had to pivot from ramping business volumes to operating restrictions yet again, we did what we always do. We focused on the guest experience, safety, and cost controls as we navigated through the uncertainty. For film entertainment and content, we reported our highest segment EBITDA of the pandemic during Q4 2021.

Our media business was also materially impacted by operating restrictions and closures, not only by the specific restrictions implemented in Q4, but also by the uncertainty that restrictions throughout the year created in our clients' strategies as they look to commit to cinema and our digital place-based networks. We did see clients coming back and reported Q4 media revenue of CAD 32.8 million as compared to CAD 12.5 million in the prior year.

The increase was primarily due to cinema media revenue, which increased CAD 20.6 million as a result of the circuit reopening throughout the majority of Q4 2021 and the resulting stronger box office performance. Given the high margin contribution of cinema media, our overall media segment EBITDA increased to CAD 19.3 million, also a segment record during the pandemic.

Our P1AG business typically generates approximately two-thirds of its revenue from the U.S. and as such is less impacted than our other businesses by operating restrictions in Canada. It had another strong quarter with revenues increasing to CAD 31.8 million from CAD 11.8 million in the prior year, and EBITDA increasing to CAD 4 million from a loss of CAD 3.7 million in the prior year. Our LBE business continues to be impacted by the pandemic and operating restrictions.

We would typically generate significant revenues during the fourth quarter from corporate events and holiday parties. As you all know, these types of events were significantly impacted in 2021. We were still pleased to report Q4 adjusted store-level EBITDA of CAD 4.7 million, up from a loss of CAD 2.8 million in the prior year.

Despite the lower business volumes, we were able to manage costs and reported an adjusted store-level EBITDA margin of 24.4%. SG&A expenses were up 34.2% to CAD 15.8 million from CAD 11.8 million in the prior year, primarily due to additional litigation costs, a decrease in wage subsidies, a decrease in restructuring expenses, and timing related to certain expenditures. These items are described in more detail in our MD&A.

With the continuing uncertainty of COVID and the potential of further operating restrictions, we continued to be focused on cost control. I wanted to provide some comments on our largest fixed and semi-fixed costs and the impacts of subsidies and abatements during the quarter.

For the Q4 , we reported government subsidies of approximately CAD 11.3 million as compared to CAD 18.4 million in the Q3 of 2021 and CAD 22.2 million in the Q4 of 2020. The CAD 11.3 million reported in Q4 2021 includes approximately CAD 9.4 million in wage subsidies and approximately CAD 1.9 million under the federal rent subsidy program and provincial property tax and utility subsidies. Our subsidy program receipts did reduce in the Q4 as it was expected that we would be in a reopening phase.

Provincial and federal governments have announced subsidy programs which will continue to apply throughout the beginning of 2022, and we will continue to benefit from these programs. In addition to the government subsidies, we continue to receive abatements from our landlords, albeit at declining amounts as time has passed and our locations reopen.

For the Q4 , we received the benefit of abatements totaling CAD 7.1 million as compared to abatements of CAD 14.9 million in the Q4 of 2020. For the Q4 of 2021, we reported net CapEx of CAD 4 million and approximately CAD 15.6 million for the full year. Our net CapEx was materially below prior years and our guidance as we focused on only contractually committed expenditures and necessary expenditures.

For 2022 and beyond, we will continue to be prudent with our growth initiatives, and we'll seek out opportunities within the disrupted retail landscape. Given the ongoing impacts of the pandemic and COVID-related restrictions during the Q1 , our guidance for net CapEx for 2022 is reduced to CAD 70 to 75 million.

As a result of the foregoing, we were pleased to report our Q1 since the beginning of the pandemic without a cash burn. We had an average monthly net cash contribution of CAD 439,000, as compared to an average monthly net cash burn of CAD 24.9 million in the prior year. Please note that we are providing two alternative calculations of average monthly net cash burn. One which is similar to our previous disclosures, and a second which is based on a more directly identifiable gap measure, including net cash provided by or used in operating activities as a starting point.

As a result, there have been some immaterial changes to the previously presented amounts. Before discussing our liquidity position, I wanted to discuss two additional out-items. As I know you're aware, with respect to the Cineworld litigation, we were awarded damages of CAD 1.24 billion and CAD 5.5 million for transaction costs exclusive of prejudgment interest. Cineworld has filed a notice of appeal, and due to uncertainties in timing, outcome of appeal, and the ability to recover the full amount, no amount has been accrued as a receivable on our financial statements.

Secondly, I want to remind you of the benefit of the tax asset that was derecognized during 2020 as a result of the uncertainties related to the pandemic. As described in note eight of our financial statements, we currently have non-capital losses totaling CAD 314.6 million to utilize against future periods.

We can continue to evaluate the recoverability of these deferred tax assets, and will recognize such asset when and if appropriate. I would now like to focus on our liquidity position. For Q4 2021, we were pleased to have net borrowings of CAD 1 million under our credit facilities after net repayments of approximately CAD 26 million in Q3 2021. Throughout 2021, we have managed our debt balance by minimizing our cash burn and looking for liquidity opportunities.

As a result of Omicron and the provincially mandated operating restrictions and closures, we immediately and proactively approached our bank group to amend our credit facilities to extend the suspension of covenant testing until the Q2 of 2022. We were pleased to receive their support and announce this amendment on 30 December 2021.

As a reminder, while the covenant testing is suspended, we are required to maintain a minimum liquidity of CAD 100 million. As of 31 December 2021, we had approximately CAD 271 million in availability or liquidity under our credit facilities. As we continue to reopen and ramp up, we will continue to focus on cost controls and liquidity while driving revenues. We see restrictions being relaxed, we see pent-up consumer demand, and we see a backlog of film titles to supply the market on reopening.

We continue to focus on the safe operations of our businesses and cost management while exploring opportunities for value creation. That concludes their remarks for this morning, and we'd like to now turn the call over to the conference operator for questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypads. If you choose to withdraw your question, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your phone is unmuted locally. Our first question today comes from Derek Lessard of TD Securities. Derek, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Derek Lessard
VP and Senior Research Associate, TD Cowen

Yeah. Good morning, everybody g lad to talk to you again. Just a few questions for me. Curious about the price increase that you put through, and just maybe if you could add some context around, I guess, their average magnitude and are they simply you guys raising ticket prices? And maybe just how sticky you expect them to be.

Gord Nelson
CFO, Cineplex Inc

Yeah, Derek, we have made some very small price adjustments as we move forward. Most of the increase you see in the BPP is based on the guests coming to our premium offerings, and that's helped us, you know, get to the higher numbers that you see. We'll continue to evaluate our pricing and how we move forward with that into 2022.

Derek Lessard
VP and Senior Research Associate, TD Cowen

Okay n o, that's helpful. Maybe Gord, there's the CAD 3.8 million and CAD 3.1 million increase in Scene+ costs and marketing expenses. Just wondering how we should be thinking about the level of these expenses and whether or not they're either more one-time?

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

Yeah. With respect to the marketing expenses, I mean, there are two strong initiatives that we implemented in the Q3 and into the Q4 . You know, one is with respect to a kind of a rebranding campaign to reintroduce our guests and get them back into thinking of the theater experience. The second one is the CineClub introduction. You know, you're gonna see a little bit of an elevated spend in Q4 related to those initiatives t hat's why you're seeing the increase relative to the prior year. With respect to Scene+ and you've seen the Scene increase.

You know, from 2020 to 2021 is, we've discussed the launch of Scene+ and, you know, the opportunities that we see with respect to that. The elevated cost that you're gonna see in both 2021, and that will continue on through 2022 as we go and implement the benefits of Scene+. For 2021 and 2022 you'll see those costs at a little bit of an elevated level than you would have historically seen.

Derek Lessard
VP and Senior Research Associate, TD Cowen

Okay, that's helpful m aybe one last one for me before we queue Ellis. I know you guys wanna be open, but I was just curious on which movie for you would you regard as the next tent pole that? you know, that you'd say that you need to absolutely be fully open in order to leverage the-

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

Well, the good news is, we started tickets on sale at mid day yesterday for the movie The Batman. You know, we've got some special events that are taking place the day before the movie opens at a special deal we made with Warner Bros., and it's happening across North America.

On that Wednesday, we've already pretty well sold out all of the bigger markets like Toronto and Montreal, and things are going very welland a s at this point, I think we've already pre-sold close to half a million CAD. I think that's gonna be the next biggie e ven though, you know, we've got opening tonight, Death on the Nile, Marry Me and Blacklight so w e've got product that's coming through that will continue to get our guests back to our theaters and l et's not also forget the Oscar-nominated films that are back on the screen. There's gonna be, you know, a lot of product that our guests can enjoy.

Derek Lessard
VP and Senior Research Associate, TD Cowen

Okay. That's it for me. Thanks, everybody.

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Fan of Scotiabank Capital. Jeff, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Jeffrey Fan
Global Managing Director and Head of Equity Research, Scotiabank

Thank you. Good morning, and thanks for all the color. I just wanna dig into the performance in the box office a little bit. Ellis, I think you said in October you did about 80% of 2019. Wondering if you can give us a number for November just before the closures. The second part related to box office is because the closures were not applied across the country uniformly, some theaters were open in some provinces.

Do you have any data on how those theaters performed through the quarter, the ones that were opened? and the ones that were able to show Spider-Man in the last two weeks of December? I know it might be small, but it just gives us a sense as to what the pent-up demand and patrons' willingness to come back is. If you have that would be great.

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

October, as you said, we did 80% i n November, we were close to 70% and D ecember, taking all of the items into account, we ended up at 62%. That was also because, as you said, we were hurt by the back half of December, where we were closed or restricted in a number of locations.

The first half of December is not a good indicator because the first two weeks in December are usually the slow week, and the back two weeks are usually the strongest weeks of the quarter. In the last two weeks, it's also the strongest weeks of the year, which is really something that hurt us because of the closures. On an overall basis from like October to December, we were close to 70% for the quarter. If you looked at October to 15 December , we were around the same number.

Jeffrey Fan
Global Managing Director and Head of Equity Research, Scotiabank

Okay. That's helpful.

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

Does that-

Jeffrey Fan
Global Managing Director and Head of Equity Research, Scotiabank

What about the theaters that were open, if we can break it down to the ones that actually went through the quarter and stayed open?

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

Yeah. If you look at the ones that stayed open, that helped us get to the 70%. Basically, you know, we were close to 80% for the ones that were open.

Jeffrey Fan
Global Managing Director and Head of Equity Research, Scotiabank

Okay. Great. That's helpful.

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

They were strong but a gain, remember we were hurt because Quebec was closed, and we also had restrictions in mostly all of the other provinces.

Jeffrey Fan
Global Managing Director and Head of Equity Research, Scotiabank

Right. Understood. The other question is for Gord, just related to some of the measures, relief measures that you alluded to, since the new closures. How much should we be expecting for 2022? I guess, particularly in Q1? Can you talk a little bit about what you're thinking on cash burn for Q1 2022 before the covenants kick back in?

Gord Nelson
CFO, Cineplex Inc

Sure. On your first question then on subsidies. On government subsidies, this would be the wage program, the rent program and [Unintelligible] tax and utilities program, we generated about CAD 11.3 million of support during the Q4 . You know, as we mentioned, it was primarily related to the restrictions put in place in the back half of December.

The programs that have now been announced for that mid-December through any other periods of restrictions into 2022 are actually a little bit richer than some of the predecessor programs. You know, there's a Hardest-Hit Business Recovery Program, you know, a Tourism and Hospitality Recovery Program, that are really designed to help those organizations that have been particularly hard hit during the pandemic.

The subsidy levels are a little bit richer. You know, I would expect that our support mechanisms. I gave you the amount for Q4, about CAD 11.3 million, and our support mechanisms for the Q1 could be almost 3 times that magnitude. They will be. You know, we would expect them to be over CAD 30 million.

Jeffrey Fan
Global Managing Director and Head of Equity Research, Scotiabank

Okay.

Gord Nelson
CFO, Cineplex Inc

On your second question, which relates to cash burn, is, you know, what I would suggest is that I gave you the number for last quarter, which, sorry, of Q4 2020, which was in essence a full quarter closure. We were kind of ramping up to about CAD 25 million cash burn in a full closure scenario. You know, if you wanted to suggest that perhaps for Q1 we're in a scenario where maybe it's a third of that number, you know, given the impacts that have kind of really fallen in January, that's probably around the neighborhood of where we're gonna be.

Jeffrey Fan
Global Managing Director and Head of Equity Research, Scotiabank

Great. Thanks, Gord. That's helpful.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Aravinda Galappatthige from Canaccord Genuity. Aravinda, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Aravinda Galappatthige
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Two from me. The first one, for Gord or Ellis. With respect to occupancy costs, I mean, as we look beyond Q1, how should we sort of think about that element, the cash component? Are there more rationalization that you can achieve on a go-forward basis or, as sort of box office returns back to pre-pandemic levels?

Should we be thinking of sort of, you know, historic benchmark as we sort of look to forecast that? Then, secondly, on the media side, you know, under the circumstances, I thought the cinema media number was actually quite good getting to, you know, surpassing 50% of the pre-pandemic levels.

Can you give us a flavor of? the sort of the dialogue that you're having with advertisers, their appetite to sort of come back alongside sort of the reopening? Would there be a sort of a lag as in terms of the return of those ad dollars? Thank you.

Gord Nelson
CFO, Cineplex Inc

Hi Aravinda. It's Gord i 'll take the first question on occupancy and then turn it back to Ellis for media. With respect to the occupancy costs, you know, our real estate team has done an amazing job, incredible job in terms of getting abatements. I wanna stress again that these are abatements t hese are not deferrals of rent. This is permanent forgiveness.

We're not in a situation where we have to pay catch-up rent in 2020. You know, obviously, we're continuing to explore other opportunities during the most recent closure period. And so we expect to be successful, but again, on a diminished level than we've been historically. Your question is, do I go back up to sort of the 2019 level? I think that's appropriate. You would not go above that level because, as I said, you know, we have not been in a situation where we have been deferring rent and having to pay catch up for it in 2022. Then I'll let Ellis talk about kind of the media relationships.

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

Yes. On the media side, we did have a strong Q4, and we are seeing a real desire for our clients to get back on screen, and we will see a continuing ramp-up as we move forward. Sadly, we got hit with the closures in our bigger markets, but we're looking forward to a nice ramp-up as we move forward.

Aravinda Galappatthige
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Okay. Thank you. I'll pass the line.

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

Thank you, Aravinda.

Operator

Thanks. Thank you. Our next question comes from Drew McReynolds of RBC Capital Markets. Drew, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Drew McReynolds
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah. Thanks very much, and good morning to you all a couple of just follow-ups or clarifications, maybe starting with you, Gord, on CapEx. I don't know if I got the number right i think I heard CAD 70 to 75 million for 2022. If that is correct, just can you give a little color on? you know, what that envelope is going to include?

T hen second, on the Scene+ accounting, you've walked through just a couple of, you know, puts and takes as to what we should expect kind of going forward b ut, in terms of accounting for that program, is there really any big difference to what you were doing before? I'll stop there and add just a couple others after. Thanks.

Gord Nelson
CFO, Cineplex Inc

Okay. Thanks, Drew. I'll take those two questions for, with respect to CapEx, and I'm happy to provide a little bit more color on that. You know, in 2021, as I mentioned, you know, we look to only complete contractually committed projects as well as really only required expenditures during the period.

You know, we have reported a full year CapEx of roughly CAD 16 million, which is described in our MD&A with roughly CAD 7 million in maintenance, CAD 5 million in builds, you know, CAD 5 million in growth, and, you know, about CAD 1 million in sort of timing of disbursements. The amounts that I described for 2022, you heard me correctly, was a range of CAD 70 to 75 million. That would be comprised of the following.

Roughly CAD 25 million of maintenance capital so a gain, you know, we've got a little bit of catch up o ur maintenance is typically CAD 30 million, as we've described before. With some of the closures in the Q1 , we're a little bit behind where we'd be on that. I'm suggesting we'll be at around CAD 25 million of maintenance CapEx. Some of the builds that we've restarted, so the net build amount will be about CAD 30 million. Premium initiatives, so this is typically adding premium initiatives in the theaters, will be around CAD 10 million. That makes up the CAD 70 to 75 million.

With respect to your second question on Scene+, the nuances and the changes, and it's a good question, and on the accounting. One that really had a, you know, a relatively insignificant impact in the Q4 , which we will provide more detail on in 2022 as we go forward, is when we were issuing Scene+ points historically for transactions at the box office or the concession stand.

We would deduct the value of those Scene+ points almost as a discount against the original transaction. So if you were buying a ticket purchase at, say, [Unintelligible], and we issued, you know, ScreenX number of Scene+ points, we would actually record the box office revenue as CAD 14 less ScreenX.

Now that we're not necessarily the primary beneficiary of the Scene+ rewards, we will end up really moving that discount to a marketing expense. Now that in the example I just gave you, CAD 14 will come in as box office revenue, and the value of those Scene+ points issued will become a marketing expense. Again, it was insignificant. It was just slightly over CAD 1 million in the Q4 .

We will provide detail in our MD&A about you know, going forward on how those amounts are comprised and compared to the prior years. The important thing is it's a net zero impact. It just means, you know, the box office and the concession revenue will be grossed up and there will be a corresponding marketing expense.

Drew McReynolds
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah. Those two answers there, Gord, fantastic t hank you for that. A couple other ones, just quick. On the digital media side, just in the MD&A, you talk about a few of your contracts expiring and a focus on higher margin projects. Just, I'm assuming that's maybe in the normal course of scaling this business as you look forward, but just any change in your strategy there?

Lastly for me, I probably have asked this often on prior quarters, but just, as we come out of, you know, the mess of the last couple of years, you guys have done a great job on the cost structure. At the same time, obviously, the world is seeing some inflation. Just how do you view at the high level kind of the put and take of that one? Thank you.

Gord Nelson
CFO, Cineplex Inc

Sure. I'll take both the questions and Ellis can jump in. On CDM, you know, we're really pleased with sort of the pivot that the business is doing. In our materials, we talk about the development during the pandemic and the initiative to develop our FLEX SmartEngine technology.

This is where we really see the next generation of the digital signage business. The SmartEngine is really a data-driven platform which provides, you know, more value for the impressions that appear in front of the signage i t's, in essence, using machine learning and AI to kind of provide more targeted messaging. That's where we see sort of a high margin pivot in terms of our strategy.

What we'll see is we'll transition our customer base away from sort of the low margin, you know, maybe mass location type customers where they're not looking for a solution like that. They're low margin contributors to us and look into kind of more of these high touch points, high, you know, high value contributors and high margin contributors in the digital media business. That's really started, and that's the focus of the business going forward.

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

Gord, I think it's really important to say that as we switch and pivot, we may show a decline, but over the next 12 to 18 months, we will recapture a lot of good business as we continue to use technology to move forward and get new clients into the space. We are optimistic that it'll continue to grow as we move forward. We'll pivot a little bit away from the big hardware sale component to hardware sales was about 50% of our revenue in 2019. You'll see a little bit of a pivot away from the hardware sales too, which is extremely low margin.

Gord Nelson
CFO, Cineplex Inc

On your second question, which was related to costs and our cost structure and we obviously have been very focused on that during the pandemic. Look, we're aware of all the supply chain disruptions, potential for inflationary cost increases, wage challenges and a number of items which we've denoted in the risk section of our MD&A. We do believe that there's opportunity to potentially pass on any and if those occur through pricing w e have held back on pricing, but that would be an opportunity but a lso we're looking at automation technology to help mitigate some of those and any of those cost increases.

Drew McReynolds
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Got it. Thanks. Thanks very much to you both.

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

Thank you.

Gord Nelson
CFO, Cineplex Inc

Thanks, Drew.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question today, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypads. Our next question comes from Adam Shine of National Bank Financial. Adam, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Adam Shine
Managing Director, Assistant Head of Research and Analyst, National Bank Financial Markets

Thanks a lot. As you can imagine, most of my questions have been asked and answered already, but a couple maybe for you, Ellis. You know, one, when I look at the release schedule this year, it does look pretty strong. I can count at least a dozen plus, you know, particularly large blockbuster movies and then a whole slew of perhaps smaller budget ones, which leads to the question, you know, Bob Iger-

You know, as he exited, Disney and made a few remarks during a number of interviews, talked about, you know, the increasing Blockbusterization of the box office and y ou know, we've seen obviously how some of the Marvel movies, Disney movies have sort of outperformed. Can you maybe talk about your thoughts as to how you see things? you know, in terms of, you know, driving more consumers for more movies out to the box office as we exit the COVID?

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

Yes, it's a great question, and I did read what Bob said but t he bottom line is when you go back and look at them as to all the different experiments that the studios did over the last year and a half, they all still realize that, you know, the theatrical release is one of the best ways of building the brand. You know, I look at the back half of this, not even the back half from moving forward, there are a significant number of tent-pole movies that are being released in 2022, which are the movies that really drive the total box office for the year because they are usually the higher grossing movies.

As we go through the year, I think there's gonna be, you know, a number of the smaller studios that are gonna come out with the specialty product and also the Academy Awards this year t here's a lot of movies like West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, Dune, you know, King Richard-

-Nightmare Alley t hese are all movies that, you know, will start to continue to do business as we move forward and i think even though Bob Iger said, "Hey, the theaters are only gonna be good for the tent-poles," I think it's gonna come back to all of the movies performing and being part of the overall box office. Again, the tent-poles drive the bottom line, both from a box office and concession perspective. Hope that helps you.

Adam Shine
Managing Director, Assistant Head of Research and Analyst, National Bank Financial Markets

Absolutely m aybe one just to tie Gord j ust, you know, notwithstanding the fact that obviously, you know, there are inflationary pressures out there, and as Aravinda asked on occupancy costs, these will naturally, you know, move higher this year. Gord, just in the context of where margins go, you know, on the back of savings that have indeed been achieved over the last couple of years, can we still assume that there will indeed be margin expansion, you know, this year or exiting COVID, you know, compared to the 2019 level?

Gord Nelson
CFO, Cineplex Inc

Yeah, I agree with Adam t hat's where we wanna get back. 2019 included some unusual, transaction-related expenses so i think if you, say, excluded those, you know, that's where we're trying to get to is the margin up above, 2019, excluding those.

Adam Shine
Managing Director, Assistant Head of Research and Analyst, National Bank Financial Markets

Fantastic. Thanks a lot.

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

Thank you, Adam.

Operator

Thank you. We currently have no further questions, so I'll hand the call back over to Ellis Jacob, CEO and President, for closing remarks.

Ellis Jacob
President and CEO, Cineplex Inc

Thank you again for joining the call this morning. As you heard today, our company is positioned well, and we have a lot to look forward to as we move ahead. Our theaters and entertainment venues are now open across the country, and we expect the remaining restrictions to be lifted in the coming months, as we have seen in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

The film slate for the remainder of the year is strong and momentum is building in our other businesses. Our financial position is on solid ground, and we are prepared for what's to come as we continue to ramp up across the country and businesses. Above all of this, we are beyond thrilled to be back doing what we do best, something we've been proudly doing for 100 years, entertaining Canadians. I look forward to speaking with you all again in May for our Q1 results. Until then, please take care, be well, and enjoy a movie at your local Cineplex. Thank you very much and have a great weekend.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen t his concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

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