Good morning. We would like to welcome everyone to Canadian Natural's conference call and webcast presentation regarding the acquisition of Chevron's Alberta assets and the 7% dividend increase. After the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded today, October 7th, 2024 , at 7:00 A.M. Mountain Time, and I would like to turn the meeting over to today's host, Lance Casson, Manager of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Canadian Natural's conference call as we announce the acquisition of Chevron's Alberta assets and a dividend increase. As always, I'd like to remind you of our forward-looking statements, and it should be noted that in our reporting disclosures, everything is in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated, and we report our reserves and production before royalties. Additionally, I would suggest you review our advisory sections in the slides and press release that includes comments on Non-GAAP disclosures.
Speaking on today's call will be Scott Stauth, our President, and Mark Stainthorpe, our Chief Financial Officer. Also in the room today is Robin Zabek, CEO, E&P, and Jay Froc, CEO of Oil Sands. Scott and Mark will provide the details of this accretive transaction that drives long-term shareholder value. Please ensure you follow along the webcast as the slides are user-defined. At the conclusion of our prepared slides, we will open up the line for questions. Scott, over to you, Scott.
Thanks, Lance, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking part in our conference call this morning. Canadian Natural has entered into an agreement to acquire, subject to regulatory approvals from Chevron Canada, its 20% interest in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project, which includes the Muskeg River and Jackpine mines, Scotford Upgrader, as well as the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage Facility, bringing Canadian Natural's current working interest to 90% in AOSP. In addition, Canadian Natural has agreed to acquire Chevron Canada's 70% operated working interest in the Duvernay. Skipping ahead to slide four. For our agenda this morning, I will be discussing the key details about these transactions, including overviews on each of the assets, and Mark will provide the financial overview, our dividend increase, and our free cash flow allocation. Slide five.
These acquisitions are an opportunity that is unique to Canadian Natural and provides more high-value SCO in our oil sands, mining, and upgrading operations, building off the strengths and efficiencies gained over the past seven years at AOSP. The Duvernay is a premium, high-value, de-risked, liquid-rich resource production, providing Canadian Natural with Montney-like capital efficiencies and the ability to leverage our extensive Montney and Deep Basin areas with operational and cost synergies. Both these assets provide significant free cash flow for decades. As Mark will illustrate for you this morning, our free cash flow plan is targeted to maintain equivalent current returns to shareholders with more upside in the future. Slide six. Through acquiring these AOSP assets, these AOSP and Duvernay assets from Chevron, Canadian Natural is uniquely positioned to achieve synergies of a combined transaction which benefits both parties.
Purchase price is $6.5 billion, with an effective date of September 1, 2024, and a targeted close date of December 6, 2024. The acquisition cost of 71,600 per BOE per day at targeted 2025 production is immediately accretive to Canadian Natural's flowing metrics. Slide seven. These assets build on the robustness of Canadian Natural's assets. The 2025, 2025 forecast of approximately 122,500 BOEs per day is approximately a 9% increase to our base compared to the 2024 budgeted midpoint, with 92,500 barrels per day of liquids increase and 179 million cubic feet per day increase in natural gas.
We will see additional efficiencies at AOSP through synergies between Horizon and AOSP mines and cost synergies in the Duvernay with adjacent Canadian Natural assets. As we welcome Chevron and Alberta's team, we look forward to leveraging technology learnings through combined team expertise. Our world-class oil sands mining assets will provide increased cash flow, and in the Duvernay, we have an extensive drill-to-fill liquid-rich inventory with short cycle times. Slide eight. Turning to the AOSP transaction. Slide nine. As part of the AOSP acquisition, Canadian Natural also purchases Chevron's interest in the oil sands leases, including Pierre River, Ells River, Namur, and Saleski. Since 2017 AOSP acquisition, we have been able to create significant value by increasing production at AOSP by approximately 30% and decreasing costs by approximately 20%.
This seamless integration we have announced today strengthens the robustness and sustainability of our oil sands, mining, and upgrading assets. Slide 10. This map shows the connectivity through the Corridor Pipeline between the mines and the Scotford Upgrader, located near Edmonton. Slide 11. As we plan to continue to build upon and deliver the synergies between Horizon and AOSP, our zero decline production increases by approximately 13%, and our 1P and 2P reserves increase on our estimates by 12%. The map shows the close proximity of the AOSP and Horizon assets, as well as consolidated oil sands leases with future development potential. Slide 12, turning to our Duvernay asset summary.
Slide 13, the acquired 70% operated interest in the Duvernay has a targeted 2025 production of approximately 30,000 barrels per day and 179 million cu ft per day of natural gas, with growth potential opportunity through a defined plan to produce a combined approximately 70,000 BOEs per day by 2027. The teams have identified over 340 net oil and liquid-rich locations in an area that is proven and de-risked, with strong capital efficiencies, very similar to the Montney. This map shows the close proximity. Slide 14. This map shows the close proximity to our core deep basin assets, and we expect cost efficiencies in the range of approximately 15% or CAD 40 million per year, with extensive infrastructure that will enable high-value liquids growth through a defined development plan. Slide 15.
As I mentioned, our teams have identified over three hundred and forty net locations, with the majority upside coming from liquid-rich and light oil windows, with average liquid production at approximately 46%. We see strong liquids rich production across the entire Central Kaybob, Waskahegan, and Chickadee areas, and the combined teams will focus on technology and efficiency synergies to drive more value going forward. With that, I will turn it over to Mark for the financial update.
Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. I'll start on slide 17, titled The Financing Plan. Our financial position is very strong today and includes significant available liquidity. At the end of the third quarter of 2024, our available liquidity was approximately CAD 6.2 billion, including cash. We have also obtained a CAD 4 billion fully committed term loan facility, so after funding the acquisition, we will have in excess availability of approximately CAD 1.5 billion. Moving to slide 18. Canadian Natural generates significant and sustainable free cash flow that is targeted to be further enhanced with the acquired assets. As a result, our board of directors agreed to increase the quarterly dividend by 7% to CAD 0.5625 per share, payable at the next regular quarterly dividend payment in January 2025.
This will mark 2025 as the 25th consecutive year of dividend increases, with a 21% compound annual growth rate over that period. Post-acquisition, our debt metrics remain very strong, where we target in a $70 WTI environment, debt to book capital to exit 2024 at approximately 30% and our ending 2024 debt to forward twelve-month EBITDA at approximately 1.1 times. Moving to slide 20. We have also updated our free cash flow allocation policy. To remind everyone, we define free cash flow as adjusted funds flow, less all capital and dividends. We manage the allocation of free cash flow on a forward-looking annual basis while managing our working capital and cash management as required.
Post-closing of the acquisition, the free cash flow allocation policy will be 60% of free cash flow to shareholder returns and 40% to the balance sheet until net debt reaches $15 billion. When net debt is between $12 billion and $15 billion, 75% of free cash flow allocated to shareholders and 25% to the balance sheet, and when net debt is at or below $12 billion, 100% of free cash flow will be allocated to shareholders. The updated policy recognizes our current strong financial position while targeting further improvements go forward. It also delivers significant total shareholder returns that, post-closing in a $70 WTI environment, targets to be essentially the same absolute amount as under our 100% free cash flow distribution to shareholders prior to the acquisitions.
And over time, provides further upside and additional free cash flow to shareholders, exceeding those under the current 100% distribution of free cash flow to shareholders. Thank you. And with that, I'll turn it back to Scott for a summary, and then open up the line for questions.
Thank you, Mark. In summary, Canadian Natural has executed a unique opportunity to combine two high-value assets that provide immediate and significant sustainable free cash flow. This transaction provides a material production and reserve increase and further leverages our expertise. The AOSP asset supports our oil sands mining and upgrading top-tier cost structure and efficiencies that our team has worked hard at developing over the past seven years, and through continuous improvement activities, we will continue to drive even more value. The high-value, de-risked, liquid-rich Duvernay assets complement our deep basin inventory with more operational and cost synergies. Thank you, and I will now open it up for questions.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, should you have a question, please press star followed by one on your touchtone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised, and should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by two. And if you are using your speakerphone, we do ask that you please lift the handset before pressing any keys. Thank you. Your first question will be from Greg Pardy at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, and thanks for the rundown. Scott, I mean, you know, back in 2017, when you took 70%, you've implemented a lot of changes since that time. So now you've got effectively full control of AOSP Horizon. Are there further synergies now by picking up this extra 20%?
Yeah, good question, Greg. You know, I think what it does do for us is it allows for a little bit more ease in terms of governance on the assets. I can see us utilizing the equipment more effectively between the two sites, take better overall utilization of the equipment across both sites. So that, combined with the fact that we will continue to work on our continuous improvement opportunities, working on optimizing the production, and work in the future on increasing production cost capacity out of the AOSP asset.
Okay. That, that's helpful. And then the second question really relates to sustaining capital and then how you'll fold some of the assets into the portfolio for next year. So with AOSP, you know, I'm assuming that's pretty much additive to perhaps whatever we were factoring in next year. But then with the Duvernay, I'm assuming it's gonna compete with other opportunities within the portfolio. So I'm trying to better understand, is that kind of additive, or should we think about that as being in the mix? And then sort of related to this, to complicate the question even more, how much would sustaining capital, you know, increase by maybe just with the deal for next year, overall deal for next year? A lot in there, Scott.
Yeah. Well, I think the summary of your question is what does our sustaining capital look like?
Yeah.
If you looked at the assets on a combined basis, you know, I think a good estimate would be approximately CAD 400 million between the two assets.
Okay. Okay, thanks very much.
You bet.
Thank you. Next question will be from Dennis Fong at CIBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. It's a little bit of a follow-on to Greg's question here. As you've now seen the strategic capital spending on Horizon come to a close, and you see, frankly, the extending period of production time between turnarounds, how do you think about the, like, growth opportunity set as we kind of go forward? Obviously, you've highlighted with the Duvernay an opportunity to grow this asset to seventy thousand. How does that maybe compete? And I understand that you've already addressed how it compares to Montney, but how does it compete against the rest of your portfolio in terms of the growth or the strategic capital component of things?
Yeah, it's a good question, Dennis. I think if you look at the growth opportunities that we talked about in the past, beyond the reliability project at Horizon, we will look towards, you know, both of these assets for competing capital across the entire portfolio. So there will be production increase opportunities in the future at AOSP. The assets are similar to Horizon in terms of the reserves, so you can look for, you know, that down the road. And really, you know, I think we're gonna maintain our capital discipline, Dennis, that we've carried over the past number of years, where the best projects rise to the top in terms of being able to be executed on a budgeted calendar year basis.
So I don't think we're gonna change too much from that perspective. Our portfolio is very deep, as you know. We have lots of opportunities. The Duvernay asset will be another top-tier, strong capital efficiency, area, as well. So it competes very well with, our high-liquids Montney production and our Lloyd well, and also our multilateral heavy oil wells as well, so, and thermal. And so we've got a lot of, opportunities within there, Dennis, to, bring forward over time, and we'll be sure to maximize the value for our shareholders.
Great. I appreciate that color and context. I guess my quick follow-up here is and appreciate the commentary about the 15% cost improvements or CAD 40 million annually for synergies. Is that mostly just focusing in on the development of the acquired assets, or does that incorporate the opportunities to develop assets within that region? You mentioned Chickadee, Waskahegan, and so forth, and how does that maybe intertwine with the 340 net locations identified?
Yeah. So two separate things there, Dennis. Their development plans will look towards that, bringing forward those three hundred and forty net locations. But the cost saving synergies that I was referring to at around 15% are related to the current operational op cost savings. So we'll get those synergies through. You know, if you look at how we are in the area there with the rest of our assets, we'll have combined contractor synergies, savings, purchasing power savings on goods and services, and also liquids movements, transportation costs. Those kinds of things are what we added up into the bucket to get to CAD 40 million.
Great. Really appreciate the color there, Scott. I'll turn it back. Thanks.
Thank you. Next question will be from John Royall at J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Congrats on the deal, and thanks for taking my question. So, could you talk about how you arrived at the CAD 2 billion hike to the net debt floor and what makes CAD 12 billion the right number post-acquisition?
Hey, hey, John, it's Mark. When you look at, you know, what the acquisition brings as far as production reserves, those sorts of things, and you compare where we were before the acquisition to where we are now, it just makes very, you know, makes sense to have a higher debt floor. When you look at a CAD 12 billion, you know, debt target, if you want to call it that, for a company our size, it's a very very manageable debt level through any type of commodity price cycle. In fact, you know, you can go back to 2020 and look at where we were from a, you know, balance sheet perspective and able to manage through that quite seamlessly. So it kind of proves the fact that today we're in a very strong financial position, but we're going to get it even stronger go forward here.
Makes sense. Thank you. And then, you mentioned the sustaining capital in this deal. Can you talk about how increasing your stake in AOSP will change the production cost profile just within the overall mining segment, given you report those two assets combined?
Yeah, I think I would look at it on a holistic basis, John. You know, we're, as I mentioned, we've worked at bringing the cost down over time at about 20% and over the past seven years. That's a significant value add, value added continuous improvement plan there. And I think just looking forward, what we're going to be searching for with the teams is driving the value of the culture of our mining operations to create additional continuous improvement opportunities.
And they'll be probably, you know, in an individual basis, they'll be small in nature, John, but they add up when you have all the teams in the mining operations working together. Each one of those teams has their own initiatives for driving continuous improvement. So, you know, we just see the cost challenges out there, in terms of any inflationary increases to be offset by the work that the teams are gonna do on, you know, finding additional continuous improvement opportunities.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question will be from Neil Mehta at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Good morning, team, and congratulations on the transaction. I just try to bridge to the cash flow number here. Can you just kind of give us a sense at $70 WTI, what the, how you guys would see the incremental cash flow? Just trying to bridge that against the CapEx of CAD 400 to get to a free cash flow.
Yeah. Hey, Neil, it's Mark. You know, due to all the variables that go into cash flow, you know that we don't guide to cash flow exactly, so I can't do that. But let me just try and help you out. When you think, think about this, think of it as a total shareholder return, so dividends and buybacks. So because these assets bring in that additional free cash flow and the dividend is higher, but that pool of free cash flow after the dividend is higher.
So when you combine the increased dividend and 60% of a bigger free cash pool, we target the return to essentially be the same absolute amount as before the acquisitions. The bonus is that over time, that free cash flow grows, and that allocation as a percentage to shareholders grows, will be in excess of what that shareholder returns are today on a 100% for the acquisitions. Think of it as a total return distribution to shareholders.
Yeah. Thanks, Mark. Yeah, we can bridge through those numbers. That's helpful. And then, you know, you talked about the CAD 400 million of sustaining CapEx. Do you envision any growth CapEx associated with this asset, or are there any projects that seem interesting that we should be contemplating?
Well, I think, you know, Neil, if you just look at the Duvernay assets, we talked about their development plan there, 340 in that location. So those locations are gonna come with capital efficiencies that are pretty similar to what we currently experience in the Montney. So again, high value, high liquids, opportunities there, and, hopefully, that helps answer your question.
All right. Thanks, team.
Thank you. Next question is from Patrick O'Rourke at ATB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Oh, hey, guys. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question here, and congratulations on the deal. I just want to ask if maybe a little bit of color in terms of the non-producing assets, in particular, Pierre River, and how this could fit in strategically. Would you see this as sort of reserve life extension, or is this a potential future growth asset for Canadian Natural?
Good question, Patrick. Yeah, if you look specifically at Pierre River, you can see just adjacent to our North mine pit at Horizon. If you looked long term, you have a couple of options. Those reserves from the Pierre River area could be added as a production to Horizon as the North mine depletes. You could add that significant production reserves from those areas. You could also look at a standalone development facility at some point there. Obviously, that would come with significant capital outlay to do a repeat of what we currently have at Horizon. Certainly those options are there, Patrick, and we're in an enviable position from that perspective.
Okay, great. And then just shifting gears over to the Duvernay assets. Obviously, 30% partner in those assets and joint operator agreement. Can you maybe, sort of speak to your level of comfort with that? And of course, I would assume that you haven't communicated with the joint venture partner yet.
Yeah. So still early stages there, Patrick, in terms of from that development, and we look forward to working with our partner as we go forward here and developing these assets with the, with both companies' interest in at hand. And you know, as we've outlined here this morning, you can see that significant growth opportunities, which will benefit both partners.
Okay, great. Thanks.
Thank you. Next question will be from Roger Read at Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Maybe just to understand a little bit the difference between, the two companies' disclosures on net production from Chevron, gross production from you. Just, have these assets been increasing in production, or are we looking at when Chevron talks about a 2023 number versus you're looking more at 2025, there was maintenance or any sort of other curtailments going on in 2023?
Yeah, good question, Roger, and yes, to your point, the variance there would be related to the production drilling activities that are ongoing currently through 2024 here. And so, when we look forward to 2025, we continue to see that continued ramp up in production in 2025 and beyond.
Is that for both assets or more in the Duvernay?
That's for the Duvernay.
Okay. And then the other question I had was along the lines of the one that John asked about moving up to the 12 billion. So is it just as simple to really think about it as scale of the company increases, so everything else sort of can grow along with that? And in a bigger picture, is there any reason to take debt lower than 10-20 billion over time, or is that a comfortable level for the, for, you know, the balance sheet managing the company?
Yeah, I think that's a good way to think of it. As the company grows and the size and scale and that sustainable free cash flow has grown, that gives comfort in being able to move the debt level up. As I was talking earlier, when you think about that debt level of a company our size, and really the nature of the low break-even is key in all of that. So we could support a much higher debt level than 12 billion, and we've shown that through history, but see it as prudent opportunity here with the excess free cash flow to drive that level down.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question will be from Harry Mateer at Barclays. Please go ahead, Harry.
Okay, thanks. Good morning. So Mark, I know the slides mentioned a subsequent syndication of the term loan. Should we take that to mean, you know, no plans to term any of this debt out in the bond market, and you'll just be paying down that bank debt?
Harry. Hi, it's Mark here. Yes, I mean, we've got the liquidity and now this CAD 4 billion committed term facility to fund the acquisition, so there isn't any need to do anything else. But, you know, we will look at those opportunities in the right environment here to, you know, whether it makes sense to term out any of our balance sheet.
Okay, thanks. And then on the, I think more specifically on the Duvernay, I mean, any midstream considerations associated with this, whether, you know, additional dedicated takeaway or gathering processing agreements that you're also picking up?
Yeah, Harry, it's Scott. We're in good shape in terms of infrastructure for our longer-term development plan right through to twenty twenty-seven from a takeaway capacity for processing. All the infrastructure is essentially in place for that, and combining with our existing adjacent infrastructure in the area, we're in good shape in terms of development plans.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Next question will be from Manav Gupta at UBS. Please go ahead.
Guys, you have a history of creating value through M&A. We all remember what you were able to do with Jackfish. You initially came out with some estimates and then significantly outperformed those expectations at Jackfish. So I know you have laid out a base case scenario here. Just trying to understand what's the blue-sky scenario, you know, when you add the special sauce of CNQ, what can you do with these assets?
Yeah, that's a fair question, Manav. I think I'd just take a look at it, and how I would put it to you is that we're gonna continue to do what we do, and that's focus on driving value through continuous improvement, look at ways to reducing costs, looking ways to optimize production. And yes, you're right, we did that through the Jackfish acquisition. We'll look at the Duvernay asset as well in the same light, and we'll work very hard to achieve the maximum amount of value that we can out of those properties over time.
Perfect. A quick follow-up here is. Okay, the purchase price is CAD 6.5. The effective date is September 1. So should we assume all the cash flows that adjustments between September one and December sixth actually go to you? So the actual CAD 6.5 billion price might be lower because of these closing adjustments?
I mean, it's Mark. Yes, you're right. There are those closing adjustments with cash flow and capital and all of those things, along with other things that will go into the closing adjustments. So that's what we'll have to work through here as we get to close.
Thank you so much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, a reminder to please press star one if you have any questions. Next is a follow-up from Greg Pardy at RBC Capital Markets.
Yeah, thanks, Mark. Sorry, I should have asked before. Are there any tax pools associated with the assets you're picking up?
Yeah, Greg, we would just get, I mean, tax pools that are typical for asset acquisitions, so.
Okay. So it's just gonna be COGPE on this stuff?
You'll get some tangibles too. We can walk through that offline if you'd like.
Okay. Okay. And sorry, just to follow up on Manu's question then, do you envision these assets kind of being free cash flow generative? I think the answer is yes, but...
Yes. Yes.
Okay. Okay, thanks very much.
Thanks, Greg.
Next question is from Menno Hulshof at TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Just one quick one for me. Can you just give us a sense of the WTI oil price that this transaction was underwritten at? And I'm thinking of the AOSP in particular. And then what is your new pro forma corporate breakeven? Thank you.
Hey, Mano, it's Mark here. We look at these acquisitions on various different pricing scenarios. So, certainly in a $70 WTI, this is a very attractive acquisition for us. And as far as you look at breakevens, you know, when you look at the assets that we've acquired, and the synergies that we're going to see in it, we would see some reduction, some improvement in our breakeven due to those synergies. So that is a value add also that comes along with this opportunity, and it's really because you're, you know, you're adding 62,500 barrels a day of zero decline assets with very little, you know, maintenance capital.
Just as a reminder, what was your latest guidance on the breakeven?
Our breakeven's in the low, low forty WTIs.
Thanks, Mark.
Thank you. And at this time, gentlemen, it appears we have no further questions. Please proceed.
Thank you, operator, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. If you have any questions, please give us a call. Goodbye.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending, and at this time, we do ask you to please disconnect.