Good morning. We would like to welcome everyone to the Canadian Natural Resources 2021 2nd Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. After the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded today, August 5, 2021, at 9 am Mountain Time.
I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Corey Bieber, Executive Advisor. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Canadian Natural's Q2 2021 corporate update conference call. Canadian Natural had another strong quarter financially and operationally. As I commented before, I believe our asset base is unique amongst our peer group, underpinned by long life low decline assets and complemented by our conventional assets that allow significant flexibility, all of which can generate significant free cash flow. Beyond our robust asset base, there is a corporate strategy that focuses on generating real returns for shareholders and a driven management team and a corporate culture that focuses on being effective and efficient. Over the years, Canadian Natural has clearly demonstrated its robustness, sustainability and the strength of its business plan.
For 2021 and beyond, I believe we're one of only a few companies capable of delivering meaningful economic growth, increasing returns to shareholders and reducing absolute debt in a responsible manner. And as both Tim and Mark will discuss, we're pleased to provide additional clarity on how our substantial future free cash flows will be dispersed amongst our 4 pillars. For today's call, Tim McKay, our President, will first provide a corporate update then Mark Stainthorpe, our Chief Financial Officer, will then provide an update on our 2021 financial outlook as well as our strong financial position. Tim will then provide a summary prior to opening up for questions. Before we kick off, I'd like to remind you of our forward looking statements.
Of note in our reporting disclosures is that everything will be in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated, and as well we report our reserves and production before royalties. I would also suggest you review our comments on non GAAP disclosures. So with that, I'll turn it over to you, Tim.
Thank you, Corey. Good morning, everyone. Canadian Natural delivered strong operational results in the 2nd quarter as we achieved quarterly production of approximately 1,142,000 BOEs per day as a result of our long life Robust low decline assets, operational excellence and with our capital discipline generated significant free cash flow. We balanced free cash flow to our 4 pillars of capital allocation, maximizing value for our shareholders. In the 1st 2 quarters of 2021, We have reduced net debt by $3,100,000,000 returned approximately $1,300,000,000 to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, maintain capital discipline, executed on opportunistic transactions, which will add long term value.
The strengths of Canadian Natural's business model are also applied to environmental, social and governance to deliver industry leading performance across the board, a significant factor in our long term sustainability. For the period from 2016 to 2020, in our oil sands operation, our GHG intensity is down 38%. North American E and P methane emissions are down 28%. Incorporating this time, we have taken equivalent over 1,000,000 cars off the road annually. And over and above, we are the leading capture and sequester of CO2 in the oil and gas sector worldwide.
Our safety record is top tier as corporate total recordable industry frequency improved to 0.21 in a reduction of 58% from 2016 levels. In June, we announced the oil sands pathway to net 0 initiative, an alliance of oil sands industry participants who have a goal of achieving net zero emissions in the oil sands operations by 2,050. This is important initiative in the oil sands industry participants and Canadian Natural will further strengthen our leading ESG performance while delivering meaningful emission reductions and balancing sustainable economic development. We will acquire collaboration with the federal and Alberta governments that together we can help achieve Canada's climate growth. With the positive outlook for commodity prices for 2021, we have increased our annual capital budget by $275,000,000 The breakdown is as follows.
Our conventional and unconventional budget has increased by $120,000,000 primarily for additional drilling of 78 wells and development activities with a targeted capital efficiency of approximately $8,400 per flowing BOE and giving us the 2021 exit rate of approximately 14,000 BOEs per day. $110,000,000 is related to long life low decline assets, of which $75,000,000 primarily relates to the additional scope completed and extended turnaround time to complete Horizon turnaround the Q2. Dollars 35,000,000 of the $110,000,000 is for construction of 3 pads at Primrose, 2 at Kirby North and 2 at Kirby South, which will support production additions in 2022 beyond. Our area based Evanimet program has been highly cost effective and as a result we have added an additional $45,000,000 to our 2021 capital budget and target to do an additional 800 well aboundments as we continue to prudently manage our liabilities and environmental footprint. All of these additional expenditures will result in an estimated increase of about 1500 jobs across Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan.
Moving to the assets and starting with natural gas. Overall, Q2 production was 1.614 Bcf per day, an increase from our Q1 production of 1.598 Bcf Per Day with North American Q2 natural gas production of 1.591 Bcf up from Q1 of 1.5815, even though Pine River approximately $100,000,000 today was down for the full quarter. As of July 24, the plant resumed operation and is currently producing approximately $100,000,000 a day. We continue to focus on operational excellence And in our Q2 North American natural gas operating cost was strong at $1.15 versus Q1 of $1.24 per Mcf. At Septimus, a 5 net well pad came on stream in June as budgeted with total current rates limited to approximately $30,000,000 a day of natural gas.
It had a strong capital efficiency of approximately $5,000 per flowing BOE. Septimus is now at full capacity at approximately 150,000,000 a day of natural gas and 9,000 barrels a day of liquids and targets to remain at full capacity for the remainder of 2021. Townsend 6 wall pad came on stream in June on time and cost with total rates of approximately 55,000,000 cubic feet of natural gas with strong capital efficiencies of approximately $4,000 per flowing BOE. Production on that Townsend is approximately 265,000,000 cubic feet of natural gas was achieved in the Q2 and remains on target to exit 2021 at a production rate of approximately 340,000,000 cubic feet per day. Looking to the second half of twenty twenty one, BECO strip prices continues to look strong at over $303.50 per DJ, improving the economics of our natural gas projects, adding more value to our natural gas production as we revised our target natural gas guidance up to 1.68 Bcf per day to 1.72 Bcf and target exit 2021 in excess of 1.8 Bcf a day.
Our Q2 North American light oil and NGL production was 98,559 barrels per day, up 6% from Q1 2021, primarily as a result of the company's drilling and development activities. Q2 operating costs decreased to $14.39 per barrel versus Q1 operating costs of $16.07 per barrel. The company continues to advance its high value Montney light crude oil development at Wembley where 13 net wells have been drilled to date, head of schedule under cost of the budgeted 18 net wells targeted to be on stream in 2021. Cost efficiencies have been realized on the Wimley drilling and targeting costs of 12 lower than budgeted levels, resulting in strong capital efficiencies of approximately $83,000 per flowing BOE months on stream. Construction of the new crude oil battery and gathering system has been top tier and is approximately 45 days ahead of schedule and is now targeted to be on stream in mid August with costs targeted to be up under budget by 11%.
This project is targeted to exit 2021 with total production rates of approximately 8,500 barrels a day of liquids and 30,000,000 cubic feet of natural gas. The international E and P crude oil production averaged 30 1,697 barrels per day in Q2 2021, a decrease of 26% from Q2 2020 levels and a 3% increase from Q1 2021 levels. The changes in production from prior periods primarily a result of planned maintenance activities, natural field declines and the permanent shut in of the battlefields in 2020. Crude oil operating costs increased from prior periods primarily due to lower volumes and as a result of planned maintenance activities in the North Sea and offshore Africa, as well as increased GGH and energy costs in the North Sea. Q2 heavy oil production was up to approximately 66,000 barrels a day versus the 62,700 approximately 62,700 barrels a day in Q1, primarily as a result of the company's drilling and to a lesser extent increased development activities related to higher prices in the quarter.
Q2 operating costs increased to $19.32 per barrel from Q1 operating costs of $18.89 per barrel. At the company's Clearwater play at Smith, 6 net horizontal multilaterals are now on stream. Production from these wells continues to be strong, currently totaling approximately 2,200 barrels per day, exceeding budget rates by 600 barrels per day. As part of additional capital, the company is targeting to drill 70 additional heavy oil wells, which includes another pad of 6 net horizontal multi flow laterals at Smith and will be drilled and come on stream in Q4. This pad is also targeting strong productive rates of approximately 2,000 barrels a day.
A key component of our long life low decline assets is our world class Pelican Pool, Our leading edge polymer flood continues to deliver significant value. 2nd quarter production was 55,212 barrels per day comparable to the Q1 of approximately 55,500, primarily as a result of well drilling program activities in the quarter, offset by natural field declines. Operating costs which has a current production capacity of approximately 1300 barrels a day and low capital efficiencies of 9,900 dollars per flowing BOE. Our team at Pelican continues to drive operational excellence and with our low decline and very low operating costs, Pelican Lake continues to have excellent netbacks. Our 2nd quarter thermal production was 258,551 barrels a day, down 3% from Q1.
Operating costs in Q2 were 3% higher at $11.78 per barrel versus Q1 operating costs of 11.40 per barrel, primarily due to lower volumes in the quarter. At Primrose, the steam flood area, a A solvent injection pilot is on track to commence in Q4 2021 and similar to the first pilot at Kirby South, this is targeted to operate for a 2 year period. At Oil Sands Mining Operations, we had a strong second quarter with production of 361,707 barrels per day, inclusive of the planned maintenance at Horizon and Scotford in the quarter, with strong operating costs of $25.46 per barrel of SCL. Our teams continue to leverage technical expertise between the two sites, services, operating efficiencies, driving our costs down with consistency. The company's focused on continuous improvement initiatives, delivered high utilization and reliability at the company's oil sands mining and upgrading assets.
As a result, a record monthly SEO production of approximately 495,100 barrels a day was achieved in June 2021, an increase from the previous record of approximately 490,800 pounds a day of SEO in December 2020. I will now turn it over to Mark for a financial review.
Thanks, Tim, and good morning, everyone. The 2nd quarter was a strong operational and financially, delivering net earnings of $1,550,000,000 significant adjusted funds flow of $3,050,000,000 and free cash flow of approximately 1,500,000,000 after capital and dividends in the quarter excluding acquisitions. As a result of the significant free cash flow generation, our net debt balance at Q2 2021 of $18,200,000,000 is down $3,100,000,000 from the end of 2020 and the net debt reduction from Q1 2021 was approximately 1,700,000,000 This debt reduction includes the full repayment and cancellation of our Devon acquisition term facility of $2,125,000,000 in the quarter. We have also exercised the par call option on our bonds due in November to repay early in August, resulting in interest cost savings and further absolute debt reduction. Additionally, up to August 4, we have returned over $1,500,000,000 to shareholders in 2021 by way of our dividend that was increased in Q1 and through share repurchases.
Our long life low decline assets support a sustainable, growing and predictable dividend. This was evident through the period of challenging commodity prices in 2020, where we increased and maintained our dividend with a further increase in March of 2021, marking the 21st year of dividend increases. We continue to maintain significant liquidity, including revolving bank facilities, cash and short term investments. Liquidity at Q2 'twenty one was approximately $5,600,000,000 We had approximately $680,000,000 in commercial paper for which we reserve capacity under our revolving facilities. Free cash flow generation in 2021, defined as adjusted funds flow less budgeted capital and dividends, is targeted to be substantial and using an annual average WTI of approximately US66 dollars a barrel, free cash flow is targeted to range between US7.2 billion to $7,700,000,000 As a result of this strong free cash flow and increasing balance sheet strength through 2021, The Board of Directors has revised our share repurchase policy effective July 1, 2021 and authorized management to increase returns to shareholders through incremental share repurchases of approximately 1% of shares outstanding or approximately 11,000,000 shares per quarter.
Additionally, the new policy provides that once the company reaches an absolute debt level of $15,000,000,000 currently targeted to occur in Q4 of 2021, 50% of free cash flow is This provides balance to our 4 pillars of capital allocation with increased returns to shareholders, further debt reductions, the ability to provide economic resource development and execute on opportunistic acquisitions. This clearly demonstrates the sustainability of our business model, the ability of our unique long life low decline asset base with low maintenance capital requirements and effective and efficient operations to generate significant free cash flow. With that, I'll turn it back to you, Tim.
Thank you, Mark. Canadian Natural's ability to deliver Significant sustainable cash flow is driven by our effective and efficient operations, our high quality long life low decline assets have low maintenance capital and significant reserves. Canadian Natural's advantage is our ability to effectively allocate cash flow to our 4 pillars. We balanced our commodities in Q2 2021 with approximately 43% of our BOEs light crude oil SCO, 34% heavy 23 percent natural gas, which gives us exposure to all improving commodity prices. And we have increased our annual production guidance target to 1,220,000 BOEs to 1,267,000 BOEs per day.
We will continue to allocate cash flow to our 4 pillars in a disciplined manner, maximizing value for our shareholders, which is all driven by effective capital allocation, effective and efficient operations and by our teams who delivered top tier results. In March, our dividend was increased by 11% and we have 21 years of consecutive dividend increases at a CAGR of 20% during that time. Effective July 1, 2020, the Board has authorized management to repurchase 1% of the common outstanding shares per quarter and then once net debt is below $15,000,000,000 allocate free cash flow defined as adjusted fund flows, less budgeted capital and dividends, 50% to repurchasing shares and 50% to strengthening our balance sheet. As we have achieved our interim environmental targets, we have set new targets. By 2,030, reduce methane emissions by 50% 2016 baseline.
By 2026, reduce in situ freshwater and mining freshwater river water usage intensity by 40% from our 2017 baseline. As well with our oil sands pathway to net zero initiative, We will work with our industry partners to advance key milestones as we work towards our goal of net 0 in the oil sands by 2,050. In summary, We continue to focus on safe, reliable operations, reducing our environmental footprint, enhancing our top tier operations. Canadian Natural is delivering top tier cash flow generation. We are unique, sustainable, robust and clearly demonstrate the ability deliver returns to our shareholders by balancing our 4 pillars.
That concludes our Q2 call. I will now open the line for questions.
Your first question is from Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets.
Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the rundown guys. A couple of questions for you. The first one is just on Horizon AOS PM.
Just wondering how anomalous was the 4 100 and 5,000 barrels a day in June and or is that something that is setting up more of an achievable number on a sustained basis? Just curious there.
Yes. That's exactly what it's doing for us, Greg. In the last kind of six Munster you've seen continuous improvement from the $491,000,000 roughly to the $495,000,000 And that's exactly what it's all about. It's about little increments That we're doing on sites on the 2 sites to improve our reliability, improve enhance Our predictability on our production and so there you can over a long period of time you the goal is to get closer and closer Those numbers on a sustainable basis.
Okay. And does that have much bearing then on your operating costs? Or is this something where it will allow you to either higher gas prices or higher power prices?
Yes. Operationally, Those incremental barrels are very, very, very low in terms of cost efficiencies. So, yes, it will help absorb some of the cost of fuel and some of the commodity inflations we're seeing with various labor and So yes, it actually just helps mitigate that and drive those costs continually down in the oil sands.
Okay, terrific. And last one for me is you made changes with the Northwest Upgrader site. We understand the financial bearing and so forth, but What's happening there operationally? It's you've got an equity interest. We hear about it frequently, but we don't really have a good view as to what's going on.
Are you guys becoming more operationally involved at the Northwest Operator?
Yes, I would say that's correct. So what we've done is we've seconded 1 of our operational persons from Horizon Who is very capable to help that operation become more reliable, And obviously, it will take some time. But yes, we have suspended a Canadian natural person into that role and we're going to help that operation improve, Which we expect over time will generate some cash.
Okay, terrific. Thanks very much.
Okay. Thanks,
The next question is from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.
Good morning, guys. A lot of cash In the guidance here this morning, good to see. So a couple of questions related to that. The first one is, capital spending. You guys picked up that level this year on the back of some financing that came through.
Any early flavors around 2022? Should we be thinking in that $3,500,000,000 to $4,000,000,000 fairway? Or do you think that there's upside or downside to that number? And then I had a follow-up question around the dividend.
Yes. It's too early. We Traditionally do our capital budget here in the fall, where we rank all the different commodities and then, look at what's the port pricing at that time And try and be prudent with our capital budget. So it's too early to say. I mean if you go back in time, when we started 2020 Our capital budget was based on 45 WTI and 250.
So the little bit of increase in capital spending to me is just a Opportunistic opportunity here just to feather in some additional capital that keeps Some of the activities that we're doing very well going here more efficiently. So to me, it's just too early to say on that.
And your view of sustaining CapEx again, just remind us, Tim, where do you think the level is to keep production flat?
Well, it's in that 3% to 3.5%. Always depends on the types of activities we do in that year. This year it was 3%. And So to me, it's just generally in that range.
Okay. The follow-up is just around the dividend. As you said, you have a long track record of raising it. Any thoughts given the amount of cash in the model in the back half of the year of doing another dividend raise later this year? And just thoughts on the dividend growth profile on a go forward basis?
Hi, Neil. It's Mark. Thanks for the question. It's the dividend, as you mentioned, has increased 21 straight years. It's It's been growing and it's predictable.
And the Board has typically always raised that and done it in the March timeframe. As you see the free cash flow in 2021 and going into 2022, it's significant. So there'll be plenty of opportunity for the Board to look at that and continue that growing dividend strategy. The free cash flow allocation policy that's come out here is really because that debt repayment has accelerated much in 2021, the $15,000,000,000 target in Q4 came comes fast. So I think that The additional returns to shareholders just gives more balance to the capital allocation of our 4 pillars going through the rest of the year here.
So I think that dividend gets revisited at a regular time in that predictable period.
Okay, perfect. Thanks guys.
Your next question is from Manit Gupta with Credit Suisse.
Hey guys, first of all, you always have a very informed view on apportionments, egg risk capacity as it relates to Line 3, where the inventories are and what your near term outlook for differentials is, if you could give us some of those details?
Sure. If you look at today, apportionment is high, record high is actually at around 52% to 2% to 54%. There is some maintenance being done on the Line 3. But obviously every barrel is flowing. The inventory levels in Alberta have been pretty steady at the 35 range.
So and then of course the differentials have been extremely Strong at less than 20 percent WTI. So we look going ahead with The view that Line 3 will come on in Q4 give us that extra capacity. And as TMX Continues to progress in 2023. We don't expect that line to come on as well. So we're very Positive today here that things are moving in the right direction.
Okay. And a quick clarification here, sir. The revised guidance of discretionary that is post dividend cash flow went from 5.7, 6.2 to 7.2, 7.7, besides the change in oil price deck, was there anything else which drove the increase cost production or it was just simple as change in price deck?
No, it's mostly the change in price deck as well as continued reliable operations Targeted for the rest of the year.
Thank you for the clarification and thank you for taking my questions.
Thank you.
Your next question is from Roger Read with Wells Fargo.
Yes, good morning. Just would like to follow-up a little bit on some of the, I guess, let's call them medium to longer term goals on the emissions reductions. When do you think the CapEx gets spent on those or is it already happening? Is it going to be Parceled out kind of on a ratable basis to the various years of targets. And then the other part of that question is, What do you think some of the ancillary benefits are in terms of improved operations, improved turns overall better cash flows.
Like just trying to think about it as something other than a regulatory driven event. What are some of the other upside
Yes. It's early to say. We've only really started the high level Conceptual basis on the trunk line and the sites that are going in. Our teams have evaluated different technologies in terms of what we think is the most cost efficient in terms of reducing our CO2s on-site. Right now, it's very early in the process.
We got to do a lot of engineering work. We have to basically on the engineering side come up with the appropriate cost estimates. So to me it's just too early to I mean the real benefit at the end of the day is what we're looking to do is to be net 0 in the oil sands by 2,050. And to me, it's just we got to step through it. And as we've talked about, as we Move through the process.
We'll come up with milestones and give more clarity on cash costs and how they're allocated between the different partners and initiative. So it's just really too early to have that economic model today.
Well, no, I appreciate that on the oil sand side. I was really thinking more about the targets to 2,030, the reduction in methane, Decrease in freshwater usage. I appreciate 2,050. I'm pretty sure I won't be here holding you to account then
Yes. So on the methane reductions, you know what, the teams our field operation teams have done a fabulous job in the field. We're using some of the latest technologies in terms of identifying leaks And opportunities of fugitive emissions to reduce it. So actually, yes, in the end, we'll see more benefit because more Natural gas will be sold. Obviously, some of the sites that we feel we can consolidate economically And get that benefit.
So yes, there is actually some there is economic benefit to those. And the freshwater is the same. Obviously, the more Water we recycle, it will be less energy and more efficient on the operations. And so that's what the goal for the teams and they're working to progress those opportunities. But they're all very economic and very complementary to our operating costs.
Okay, great. Thank you. Yes.
Your next question is from Manu Holzoff with TD Securities.
Good morning, everyone. I just have one on shareholder returns. You're clearly committed to a 50% free cash flow Allocation of buybacks once the $15,000,000,000 of debt is achieved and that obviously precludes a variable and special dividends, which are getting quite a bit of play in the U. S. Can you just remind us of how you think about the different shareholder return mechanisms philosophically and whether variable or special dividends could ever become a part of the conversation or is that just too much of a stretch?
Yes. I think, Menno, when we look at the asset base and the long life flow decline, predictable cash flow, It really supports that sustainable growing year after year type of dividend. So that Today has been the focus. Of course, dividends and these allocations returns to shareholders are Board decisions. But that's really how we see the dividend.
It just fits The way we've gone about it fits really well with our asset base. And returns to shareholders just Through share buybacks gives us an opportunity to return more value as we generate growing free cash flow.
And if you look 2020, I mean, we were one of very few companies that grew our dividend and maintained the balance sheet. So the assets are very amenable to A predictable growing dividend.
Perfect. Thanks a lot.
There are no further questions. I'll turn the call back to Mr. Bieber.
Thank you very much, operator, and Sorry. Thank you very much, operator, and thank you to those that joined us today on the call. If you do have any questions, please don't hesitate to give us a follow-up. Thank you and goodbye.